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Zoom Video Tumbles. Here’s Where the Stock Must Find Support.

Zoom Video stock is taking a Tuesday tumble after the videoconferencing-tech company reported earnings.



Zoom Video stock is taking a Tuesday tumble after the videoconferencing-tech company reported earnings.

Zoom Video  (ZM) - Get Free Report stock is getting hit on Tuesday after the videoconferencing-tech company reported earnings after the close on Monday.

Shares of Zoom are down about 8% at last check. At the session low, the stock was down more than 10%. And from its all-time high Zoom stock is now down 88%.

Today’s decline comes after the company reported a mixed result. Earnings beat analysts’ expectations, while revenue was in line. However, guidance was an issue.

The company’s fourth-quarter and full-year revenue outlooks were a bit short of consensus estimates, after accounting for currency impacts. In constant-dollar terms, both outlooks were ahead of estimates.

Maybe that's just a small consolation prize, but I thought it was notable.

Even as ZM is a profitable free-cash-flow positive firm with more than $5 billion in cash and limited debt, investors are shunning the name, as it was the face of the pandemic growth-stocks group.

Let’s see what clues the chart holds.

Trading Zoom Video Stock

Weekly chart of Zoom Video stock.

Chart courtesy of

When we zoom out — no pun intended — one can see that Zoom Video stock has had a roller coaster ride.

The stock went public in 2019, bouncing between $100 on the upside and the $60 to $62 area on the downside.

Now the stock is trading below its 10-week and 21-week moving averages, and the trend still points lower. The shares are leaning on support in the $70 to $72 region, which has buoyed the stock over the past several months.

If this area continues to hold as support, bullish investors will need to see Zoom Video stock reclaim its short-term moving averages.

But if this area fails as support, it opens the door down to the key zone of $60 to $62. This zone has been support since Zoom Video has gone public.

If we reach this area — and right now, that feels like a very big “if” — then the chances seem reasonable that it acts as support. 

And if we do get to this zone, aggressive buyers can buy the dip and treat the stock as a speculative position. 

Otherwise, more conservative bulls can consider waiting to see if there’s a break of this support area, then buying Zoom Video stock if it can reclaim this zone. The new risk point would be the low after the stock reclaims the $60 to $62 zone.

Known as a bullish reversal, it’s a lower-risk approach to a stock in free-fall. However, the risk is also that the stock doesn't break support and the setup doesn’t come to fruition.

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Remote-Work Revolution Has Wiped Out $453 Billion In Commercial Real Estate Value

Remote-Work Revolution Has Wiped Out $453 Billion In Commercial Real Estate Value

Leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic, roughly 95% of commercial…



Remote-Work Revolution Has Wiped Out $453 Billion In Commercial Real Estate Value

Leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic, roughly 95% of commercial office space was occupied across the United States, according to US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) – a nonprofit, non-government organization. By March 2020, occupancy plummeted to 10%, and has only recovered to 47%, according to a new NBER report which claims $453 billion in office commercial real estate value has been wiped out in an "office real estate apocalypse."

Around the US, that resulted in a 17.5 percent decrease in lease revenue between January 2020, and May 2022, and not only because fewer offices were being occupied, but also because those that are being rented are going for shorter terms, lower prices per month, and a lot less floor space is needed as staff are told they can work from home for most or all the week.

Prior to the pandemic, 253 million square feet were rented per year; as of May 2022, just 59 million square feet had been rented, NBER's data indicates. "This indicates a massive drop in office demand from tenants who are actively making space decisions," NBER said. -The Register

What's more, while vacancy rates have hit a 30-year high, 61.7% of in-force commercial leases haven't come up for renewal since the pandemic - meaning that "rents may not have bottomed out yet."

What this means is that commercial real estate - a popular choice for pension fund managers and investors alike - may not be the best idea for the foreseeable future, given the continuing work-from-home options adopted by corporate America.

A common method used to invest in office real estate is commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), which are managed and traded via commercial mortgage-backed indexes (CMBX) made up of pools of CMBSes. 

According to NBER, more recent CMBXes tend to include a higher percentage of office collateral than earlier vintages. Those newer, office-heavy CMBXes, NBER said, are what's losing the most money. -The Register

NBER says that in 2019, commercial real estate assets topped $4.7 trillion - offices being the largest component.

Read the report below:

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/08/2022 - 19:20

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 7.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019

From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Occupancy Starts December Lower Than Pre-Pandemic WeekU.S. hotel performance came in higher than the previous week but showed weakened comparisons to 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Dec. 3.Nov. 27 through Dec. 3,…



U.S. hotel performance came in higher than the previous week but showed weakened comparisons to 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Dec. 3.

Nov. 27 through Dec. 3, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

Occupancy: 55.4% (-7.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $141.71 (+10.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $78.50 (+1.7%)

*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021.  Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue) and close to 2019 levels.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate continue to decline into the Winter.

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Online Prices Just Did Something Really Surprising

Prices on the things we buy online saw the biggest drop in 31 months.



Prices on the things we buy online saw the biggest drop in 31 months.

Inflation has ruined everything from going out to buying holiday presents for the family, but, as recent signs show, it may finally be starting to cool in at least some segments of the economy.

Gas prices in particular are dropping very quickly while the cost of cross-ocean shipping is also seeing significant improvement after the pandemic and supply chain disruptions sent those numbers skyrocketing in 2021. (Even if it doesn't always feel that way when you're sending your holiday packages this year.)

In November, prices for the goods we buy online fell by 1.9% year-over-year and 3.2% from October in the U.S.. That data comes from the Adobe  (ADBE) - Get Free Report Digital Price Index and is the largest drop seen in 31 months.

Cyber Monday Discounts Drove Overall Numbers

According to Adobe, such a steep drop has been significantly impacted by the discounts of Black Friday and Cyber Monday. 

Many retailers overcorrected for last year's inventory shortages with an oversupply and, as the year wound to an end, started quickly dropping prices. The total of online purchases brought in $116.5 billion in November, up 1.7% from 2021 and 62.5% from the months before.

"While the November drop in online prices was driven by major discounting on days including Cyber Monday and Black Friday, we also see signs of overall e-commerce inflation cooling," Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing and insights at Adobe, said in a statement. 

Computers purchased online, in particular, saw a steep drop by 18% from 2021. Electronics in general saw discounts of 13.4% year-over-year and 4.5% in October -- the biggest price fall since Adobe first started tracking online prices in 2014.

Electronics consistently make up the largest category of goods people buy online -- in 2021, electronics made up 18.6% share of all goods purchased online.

Toys, meanwhile, saw price drops of 7.7% year-over-year while prices on sporting goods dropped by 5.7% from 2021.


Online Groceries Are Still Feeling The Effects Of Inflation

"Falling prices in categories such as toys and electronics accelerated demand in November," Adobe analysts write. "[...] Adobe's figures are not adjusted for inflation, but with the November DPI down 1.9%, it is clear that strong consumer spending has been driven by net-new demand—and not simply higher prices.:

Both online and off, food is one category that is still seeing high prices. Online grocery prices were up 13.7% year-over-year in November -- just the slightest dip from the record of 14% growth in October. 

Similarly to food, pet food and products are not usually discounted on days like Black Friday and therefore were not part of the steeply dropping numbers seen in categories like electronics and apparel. Prices for pet products rose by 11% from 2021 and fell just 0.2% from the previous month.

But overall, 15 of the 18 categories analyzed by Adobe saw a decrease in online prices while even the ones that didn't still saw signs that inflation may finally be reaching a tipping point. Categories like jewelry, personal care products and flower gifts see different levels of discounts (some are not part of Black Friday promotions at all) but all also saw drops in online prices.

"In categories such as groceries and personal care, which are not promotional in nature, we are seeing price increases come down from their heights in late summer and early fall," Brown said.

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