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WTI Shrugs Off Unexpectedly Large Crude Inventory Build

WTI Shrugs Off Unexpectedly Large Crude Inventory Build

After the initial tumble last night – after API reported an unexpected build in crude inventories (and big build in gasoline stocks) – oil prices have surged higher overnight and across.

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WTI Shrugs Off Unexpectedly Large Crude Inventory Build

After the initial tumble last night - after API reported an unexpected build in crude inventories (and big build in gasoline stocks) - oil prices have surged higher overnight and across the US equity market open as all those Monday fears appear to be evaporating once again.

“Risk-on is the main driver,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich.

“I still believe oil fundamentals themselves are supportive, but the last 72 hours were primarily driven by shifts in investors’ attitude to risk.”

Maybe this morning's official data will reignote some sense of fundamentals in the energy complex... however fleeting.

API

  • Crude +806k (-5.4mm exp)

  • Cushing -3.57mm

  • Gasoline +3.31mm (-1.0mm exp)

  • Distillates

DOE

  • Crude +2.11mm (-3.7mm exp)

  • Cushing -1.347mm

  • Gasoline -121k (-1.0mm exp)

  • Distillates -1.349mm

Analysts expected a 9th straight weekly draw in crude stocks, even after API reported an unexpected build, but were wrong when the official data showed an even bigger 2.11mm barrel increase. Gasoline stocks dropped very marginally, but not the build we saw in API data...

Source: Bloomberg

Some have suggested the lack of a continued drop in gasoline demand is responsible for the market's refusal to drop on the crude build but the rise in demand is de minimus ...

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production has begun to rise after many months of "discipline"...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was trading around $69.50 ahead of the official data and dipped only modestly after surprisingly large crude build...

"There are bottom pickers trying to get into this dip," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group say that the extra barrels of oil promised by OPEC won't be enough to plug the gap between production and recovering demand. They see Brent, the global benchmark, trading at an average of $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter, though they warn of the potential for prices to "gyrate wildly in the coming weeks."

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Energy Analyst Vince Piazza warned that global balances for crude oil faces two-pronged pressure from the growing dominance of the delta variant of Covid-19 and OPEC+’s plan to boost production next month. Softer prices across the energy sector may curb some concerns about broad inflation pressure. Meanwhile, we see near-term production in the U.S. remaining pretty resilient through the summer, with inventories for the week of July 16 expected to fall by 4.99 million barrels.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/21/2021 - 10:35

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Best Stocks To Buy Now? 5 Cybersecurity Stocks To Watch This Week

Would these cybersecurity stocks be sound investments amidst the current focus on digital security?
The post Best Stocks To Buy Now? 5 Cybersecurity Stocks To Watch This Week appeared first on Stock Market News, Quotes, Charts and Financial Information…

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Do You Have These Tops Cybersecurity Stocks On Your Watchlist?

Among the top tech stocks of 2020, cybersecurity stocks continue to maintain their momentum well into the current year. Because of this, it would not surprise me to see them become the most active stocks in the stock market today. Understandable, as organizations, businesses, and governments all made the jump to the digital space, demand for cybersecurity services would rise. With the world being more exposed to cyber threats than ever, this would be the case. Just this year, there has been a slew of major cyberattacks across the board in the U.S. From tech companies to infrastructure management firms, the list continues to grow.

As a result, the U.S. government unveiled the bipartisan Cyber Incident Notification Act earlier today. This bill would make companies responsible to report hacks and attacks on their systems to the government. In passing this bill, the government would incentivize private companies to bolster their cybersecurity measures. Accordingly, I can understand if investors are keen to invest in the industry now.

Meanwhile, cybersecurity firms are also actively tracking new emerging trends in the world of cybercrimes now. Recently, Zscaler (NASDAQ: ZS) found that Internet-of-Things (IoT)-specific malware attacks rose by 700% compared to pre-pandemic levels. Elsewhere, tech giant Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is bolstering its cybersecurity portfolio via the acquisition of two digital security firms just this month. With all this action in the industry, could these top cybersecurity stocks in the stock market be worth your time?

Best Cybersecurity Stocks To Watch Ahead Of August 2021

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.

Starting off, we have CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity company that has reinvented security for the cloud era. Namely, its CrowdStrike Falcon platform is used to detect threats and stop breaches. Through its Falcon platform, the company has created the first multi-tenant, cloud-native, intelligent security solution that is capable of protecting workloads. This would cover on-premise, virtualized, and cloud-based environments running on a variety of endpoints such as laptops, desktops, and IoT devices. CRWD stock currently trades at $268.96 a share as of Friday’s close.

Last month, the company reported its first-quarter financials for the fiscal year 2022. In it, the company reported that its annual recurring revenue (ARR) was $1.19 billion. Furthermore, this was driven by a net new ARR of $144 million. CrowdStrike also added 1,524 net new subscription customers during the quarter. It also delivered a record operating and free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter, at $147.5 million and $117.3 million respectively. Given the impressive financials, will you add CRWD stock to your portfolio?

top cybersecurity stocks (CRWD stock)
Source: TD Ameritrade TOS

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Okta Inc.

Okta is a leading independent identity provider. The Okta Identity Cloud enables organizations to securely connect their employees to the right technologies. It boasts more than 7,000 pre-built integrations to applications and infrastructure providers, Okta customers can easily and securely use the best technologies for their business. The company’s software is used by over 10,000 organizations. OKTA stock closed Friday’s trading session at $257.91 a share.

In May, the company reported strong first-quarter financials. Firstly, it posted total revenue of $251 million, an increase of 37% year-over-year. Subscription revenue made a huge chunk of this revenue at $240 million. Secondly, the company reported that its remaining performance obligations grew by 52% year-over-year to $1.89 billion. Okta also ended the quarter with $2.69 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. All things considered, will you watch OKTA stock?

best cybersecurity stocks (OKTA stock)
Source: TD Ameritrade TOS

[Read More] Good Stocks To Invest In Today? 4 5G Stocks To Watch

McAfee Corp.

McAfee is a global computer security software company that is headquartered in California. Its consumer solutions are able to adapt to the needs of millions of users all over the world. Furthermore, the company’s software is used to protect over 600 million devices and queries over 60 billion daily real-time threats. MCFE stock currently trades at $26.80 as of Friday’s closing bell and has been up by over 40% in the past year.

On July 13, 2021, the company announced a new partnership with Visa (NYSE: V) to offer holistic security solutions for Visa Business cardholders. Namely, this is because small businesses are now finding themselves a key target of hackers, with almost a third of data breaches in 2020 involving small businesses. The rise in threats underscores the need for small businesses to ensure their digital assets are protected and McAfee will capitalize on this demand. For this reason, is MCFE stock a top cybersecurity stock to watch right now?

top cybersecurity stocks (MCFE stock)
Source: TD Ameritrade TOS

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CACI International Inc.

Another name to know in the cybersecurity world now would be CACI International Inc. In short, it is a computer and information tech company. With its massive portfolio of software services, CACI caters to the needs of several divisions under the U.S. federal government. This includes but is not limited to the defense, homeland security, intelligence, and health care branches to name a few. Now, CACI stock is currently trading at $268.63 a share as of the end of Friday’s closing bell. This activity could be thanks to its latest announcement.

Earlier this week, CACI was awarded a $1.4 billion contract by the U.S. military’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). Through the current Decisive Action Task order, CACI will continue to provide the DTRA with ”mission expertise” in the battle against weapons of mass destruction and threat networks. CACI CEO John Mengucci highlights that CACI’s 14+ years of experience working with the DTRA is a testament to the quality of the company’s services. Simply put, CACI is expanding on its previous work with the U.S. military which could be putting it on investors’ radars. With that in mind, would you say CACI stock has more room to grow?

top cybersecurity stocks (CACI stock)
Source: TD Ameritrade TOS

[Read More] Up And Coming Stocks To Buy Right Now? 3 Retail Stocks In Focus

Palantir Technologies Inc.

Following that, we will be taking a look at Palantir Technologies Inc. For the uninitiated, the company specializes in big data analytics and also provides cybersecurity services. Through its comprehensive software portfolio, the company caters to a wide array of end markets. The likes of which include the military, health care, and defense industries among other government bodies. With organizations shifting their assets to the digital medium, Palantir’s services would be vital amidst these times. As it stands, the company’s shares currently trade at $21.81 apiece as of Friday’s close.

Well, for one thing, Palantir seems to be keeping busy on the operational front. As of this week, the company’s data-management service, Foundry, is now available to early-stage companies. Through its “Foundry for Builders” service, Palantir is looking to serve the needs of smaller companies. Palantir COO Shyam Sanker commented, “We’re excited to expand the use of Palantir Foundry to hypergrowth startups. These organizations have ambitious goals and are building their digital infrastructure around Palantir Foundry from Day 0.” With the company expanding its addressable markets now, will you be keeping an eye on PLTR stock?

cybersecurity stocks to buy (PLTR stock)
Source: TD Ameritrade TOS

The post Best Stocks To Buy Now? 5 Cybersecurity Stocks To Watch This Week appeared first on Stock Market News, Quotes, Charts and Financial Information | StockMarket.com.

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Lower for Longer

The Delta variant of the virus has emerged as an important economic force, just as more countries appeared to adopt the attitude that we should now live with it like we do with the flu, which kills hundreds of thousands every year.  While the existing…

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The Delta variant of the virus has emerged as an important economic force, just as more countries appeared to adopt the attitude that we should now live with it like we do with the flu, which kills hundreds of thousands every year.  While the existing vaccines seem to have lost some of their ability to prevent the illness, they remain a power prophylactic against hospitalization and death.  Nevertheless, new social restrictions have been introduced in some high-income countries, even those like Israel, that have been fairly successful in vaccinating a large part of their population.  

The virus is once again raising the prospects of slowing the economic recovery that was unevenly unfolding.  The preliminary July PMI for Australia, UK, France, and the US disappointed. Expectations for the trajectory of monetary policy are being impacted.  Consider that the implied yield of the December 2022 Eurodollar futures fell to 40 bp in the middle of last week from 55 bp on July 1.  A similar futures contract in the UK, the December 2022 short-sterling implied yield fell from 58 bp in mid-July to almost 40 bp on "Freedom Day" as the UK dropped all social restrictions and mask requirements.  The implied yield of the December 2022 Bank Acceptances in Canada fell 20 basis points from July 14 to nearly 105 bp ahead of the weekend.   In Australia, the December 2022 bill futures contract's implied yield fell a little over 60 bp on July 6 to 36 bp last week.  

The December 2022 Euribor futures contract has been considerably steadier as it is widely accepted that the European Central Bank will not lift rates until after 2023.  The implied yield has been confined to a -42 bp to - 50 bp trading range since the end of April.  The yield finished last week at -49 bp, falling about five basis points since the ECB meeting.  The ECB's new forward guidance signaled that bond purchases and low rates will prevail until the staff forecasts that the 2% target can be sustained.  In June, the staff forecasts projected 2023 CPI at 1.4%.  

The signal of lower for longer helped drive European bond yields to new 3-4 month lows. The French 10-year bond yield had been offering a positive yield since the second half of April but recently moved back below zero.  One has to pay Greece 50 bp to lend to it for two years, which is a little more than one would pay to Italy for the same maturity.  Greece takes about 15 bp a year from those lending to it for five years, while Italy's five-year yield has dipped below zero for the first time since early April.  The amount of negative-yielding bonds in the world has increased to almost $16 trillion from below $13 trillion in late June, and that does not include Japan's 10-year bond, where the benchmark yield is less than a basis point. 

The ECB's dovishness likely minimizes the impact of the preliminary July CPI figures.  In July 2020, the eurozone saw consumer prices fall by 0.4% on the month and again in August.  This speaks to a likely acceleration of the year-over-year pace from 1.9% in June.  Also, note that since at least 2000, prices gained less in July than in June (and consistently rose more in August than July).  The monthly increase in June was 0.3%.  The Bloomberg survey shows economists anticipate sharp month-over-month declines in Italian and Spanish prices.   French CPI is also expected to have fallen slightly in July.  German inflation may have ticked up. These considerations suggest the year-over-year rate may have edged above 2%.  

The eurozone will provide its first estimate of Q1 GDP at the same time as the CPI figures on July 30. Recall that in Q4 19, before the pandemic struck, the eurozone economy was stagnant.  Last year contracted in H1 before recovering in Q3.  However, unlike the US experience, the eurozone economy contracted against in Q4 20 and Q1 21.  Despite the spread of the Delta mutation and the floods in parts of Europe, including Germany, the recovery now appears to be on more solid footing, and the EU Recovery Funds are at hand.   The regional economy likely expanded around 1.4%-1.5% in Q2 and is poised to accelerate further here in Q3. 

The highly contagious, though less lethal mutation (if vaccinated), has pushed investors to reconsider the recovery theme that had two drivers last November, the US election and the vaccine announcement.  Of course, this does not mean that it is the only development in the market, but it seems to be a relatively new and powerful one.  The US dollar rallied as the pandemic first struck, partly as a safe haven as US Treasuries were bought and partly as a function of the unwinding of dollar-funded purchases of risk assets (e.g., emerging markets).  

When things began to stabilize at the end of last March 2020, and the NBER now dates the end of the US recession as April 2020, the dollar trended lower and accelerated into the end of the year and began to recover in early January.   From the end of March through December last year, the Antipodeans and Scandis led the move against the greenback and appreciated roughly 20%-25% against the US dollar.  These currencies are often perceived to be levered to world growth and are often more volatile than the other majors.  Over the past three months, they have been the weakest, losing 3.0-6.50%.  

The opposite is also true in the sense that the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, other currencies often used for funding, hence the appearance of safe-haven appeal, were the worst performers against the dollar in the last nine months of 2020 (rising about 8.25% and 4.5% respectively). However, over the past three months, they have been among the most resilient in the face of the dollar's surge.  The Swiss franc is off less than three-quarters of a percent, while the yen is off by about 2.4%.  

A challenge for investors and policymakers is the evolution of the virus that renders some of the high-frequency data rather dated and arguably less impactful outside of the headline risk posed.  The Federal Reserve has succeeded in securing for itself much room to maneuver and is not tied to a particular time series, like the monthly jobs report or data point.  The FOMC statement is likely to hardly change from the previous one.

Discussions about the pace and composition of the Fed's bond-buying will continue.  Still, Fed Chair Powell was speaking for the central bank when he told Congress recently that the bar to adjust the purchases (substantial further progress toward the Fed's targets) has not been met.  The Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August has long been seen as the first realistic window of opportunity for the Fed to signal its intention to slow, possibly alter the composition of its bond purchase, and shape it more formally at the September FOMC meeting.  Ahead of Jackson Hole, there is one more jobs report, and the early call is for around a 750k increase.   

Reporters may try to draw Powell out but are unlikely to have much more success than the US Senators and Representatives.  There is ongoing interest in the size of the reverse repo facility, for which the Fed now pays five basis points at an annualized rate, the same as a six-month bill. In addition, Powell pushed back against suggestions by some officials that the central bank's MBS purchases are lifting house prices beyond the access of many American families.  Will reporters press him on this or the buying of inflation-protected securities that arguably distort the price discovery process and the break-even metric?  

Stable coins' regulatory framework may be questioned.  Recall that just before Biden took office, the Comptroller of the Currency allowed federally chartered banks to used distributed ledgers (blockchain) and conduct business with stable coins.  There is a push to treat stable coins as securities for regulatory purposes.  While the ECB recently announced it was going forward with a research and design phase of its development of a digital euro, the Federal Reserve's report is expected in September.  Powell said what many officials seem to believe that the introduction of a digital dollar would likely dry up demand for stable coins and crypto.  

The day after the FOMC meeting concludes, the US reports its first estimate of Q2 GDP.  The median forecast in Blomberg's survey has crept up in recent days to 8.5% at an annualized pace, up from 6.4% in Q1.  The NY Fed's GDPNow model puts growth at 3.2%, while the Atlanta Fed's model is closer to the market at 7.6%, while the St. Loius Fed Nowcast stands at 9%.  

Even before this surge in the virus in the US, where about half of the adult population is fully vaccinated, we suggested there was a reasonable chance that Q2 marks the peak in growth.  Fiscal policy will increasingly be a drag, pent-up consumer demand will be satiated. Monetary policy is near a peak. Perhaps the recent increase in the rate paid on deposits at the Fed and on the reverse repo facility and the recent sales of corporate bonds bought in 2020 mark the end of the easing cycle.   We have also underscored the restrictive impact of doubling the oil price since the end of last October.  

While there does not appear to be an iron law, it would not be surprising to see price pressures peak with a bit of a lag.  This dovetails with the timeframe suggested by both Powell and Yellen. Some recent industry data suggests that the US used car market (accounting for around a third of the recent monthly increases in CPI) is normalizing in terms of inventory, and prices have softened in the wholesale markets.  We note that input prices and prices paid components Markit PMI have fallen in June, and the preliminary report suggests a further decline is taking place this month.  Airfare and the price of hotel accommodations, and food out of the house, appear to be a one-off adjustment rather than persistent increases.  

The US will report June personal income and consumption figures ahead of the weekend, but the data will already be embedded in the GDP estimate.  On the other hand, the PCE deflator, which the Fed targets rather than the CPI, may draw attention.  It is expected to post a sharp 0.7% increase on the month for around a 4.2% year-over-year.  It rose by 0.4% in May and a 3.9% year-over-year rate. The core rate, which the Fed does not target but makes references from time to time, is expected to accelerate to 3.7% from 3.4%.   

Lastly, the infrastructure debate in the US Senate looks to come to a head in the days ahead.  It could, in turn, shape the political climate until next year's midterm elections. The latest wrinkle is that what might serve as the basis of a compromise in the Senate may be rejected by a number of Democrats in the House.  The failure to find a bipartisan solution for even the physical infrastructure components will not defeat the Biden administration but force it to rely on the reconciliation mechanism, which is confined to fiscal policy.  It would likely hamper the administration on non-budgetary fiscal issues.  The debt ceiling looms.  The Congressional Budget Office sees the Treasury running out of room to maneuver in October or November.  Biden's spearheading of a 15% minimum corporate tax rate might not need their approval, but the approval of 60 Senators may be needed for the other component of the global tax reform, the agreement to link the sales and taxes for the largest companies.     


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Top Stories This Week: Gold Manipulators Go to Court, Silver’s Industrial Side in Focus

Catch up and get informed with this week’s content highlights from Charlotte McLeod, our editorial director.
The post Top Stories This Week: Gold Manipulators Go to Court, Silver’s Industrial Side in Focus appeared first on Investing News Network.

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The gold price held above US$1,800 per ounce this week, finishing the period around that level, which is down from last week’s July high point of around US$1,830. 

Marc Lichtenfeld of the Oxford Club is one market watcher who’s struggling to understand why gold isn’t doing better this year. We had the chance to speak this week, and he pointed to money printing, the impact of COVID-19 and inflation as factors that should be pushing gold to record highs.

So far in 2021 those elements have have failed to do the trick, and Marc said he sees a disconnect between the yellow metal’s traditional fundamentals and what’s happening in the market.

 

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“There just seems to be a disconnect between what are the traditional gold fundamentals and what’s happening out in the world … it’s really difficult to try to figure out what is happening with gold and why gold isn’t at record highs” — Marc Lichtenfeld, the Oxford Club

Of course, some would argue that price manipulation is the reason gold isn’t moving, and this week there was more news on that front. Chat logs were released in a spoofing trial for two former precious metals traders from the Bank of America’s (NYSE:BAC) Merrill Lynch unit, and they show one of the traders bragging about how easy it is to manipulate the price of gold. The trial isn’t over yet, but in its opening arguments that trader’s attorney said he stopped spoofing after he found out it was illegal.

Looking over to silver, I heard this week from Collin Plume of Noble Gold Investments, who thinks industrial demand will help push the white metal above the US$40 per ounce mark in the next 12 to 18 months. Silver has struggled to pass US$30 so far this year.

Solar panels are one of silver’s key uses, but it’s also found in other high-tech applications such as electronics and electric vehicles. Collin isn’t aware of any commodities that can replace silver in its end-use markets, and with demand “through the roof,” he expects to see shortages of silver by next year.

With silver in mind, we asked our Twitter followers this week if they think its industrial or precious side is driving the most demand right now. By the time the poll closed, about 70 percent of respondents said they think the precious angle is more important.

 

Uranium Soared Last Year While Other Resources Tumbled

 
What's In Store For Uranium This Year? Find Out In Our Exclusive FREE 2021 Uranium Outlook Report featuring trends, forecasts, expert interviews and more!
 

We’ll be asking another question on Twitter next week, so make sure to follow us @INN_Resource or follow me @Charlotte_McL to share your thoughts.

We’re going to finish up with the cannabis space, where there was a major announcement last week.

A group of Democratic senators headed by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer introduced a draft of the Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act, which among other things would remove cannabis from the Controlled Substances Act. The long-awaited bill will need 60 votes to get through the Senate, and opinion is split on whether that will actually happen.

INN’s Bryan Mc Govern spoke with Dan Ahrens of AdvisorShares Investments, who thinks it has “no chance of passing,” but remains optimistic about prospects for American cannabis companies.

“No one should expect US (cannabis) legalization anytime soon. We should expect reforms; they’re not coming as fast as anyone would like to see, but everybody agrees we’re going to get some form of banking reform in the near future … we’ll see baby steps” — Dan Ahrens, AdvisorShares Investments

Why? In his opinion, these stocks remain undervalued compared to their Canadian counterparts, and are operating well even without federal cannabis approval. Any legalization progress would be a bonus.

Want more YouTube content? Check out our YouTube playlist At Home With INN, which features interviews with experts in the resource space. If there’s someone you’d like to see us interview, please send an email to cmcleod@investingnews.com.

And don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates! 

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

 

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