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Willow Oak Asset Management 2Q20 Letter: Finding Emerging Managers

Willow Oak Asset Management 2Q20 Letter: Finding Emerging Managers

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Willow Oak Asset Management commentary for the second quarter ended July 30, 2020.

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Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Willow Oak Asset Management: Overview

The second quarter was one of the most consequential time periods in American history. Risks that existed in the economic and political systems revealed themselves during the quarter due to the COVID pandemic. The stock market crashed. The Federal Reserve and Treasury took the playbook from the 2008 economic crisis and rapidly upsized it. The stock market then reacted swiftly and, amazingly, certain indexes reached new all-time highs despite the economy being closed in most major metropolitan cities.

The volatility caused any given day to provide drastically different results. Investors in both Willow Oak Asset Management’s parent company and in our affiliated funds should keep in mind that the last day of a month, quarter, or year is completely arbitrary. We are looking for investors who have a multi-year and multi-decade investment time horizon. The value of an investment on, say, May 31, 2020, is completely irrelevant unless there is a need to liquidate the holding.

For Willow Oak Asset Management, the quarter was an economic success. More importantly, the activities we undertook this quarter will define the long-term future of the company.

Willow Oak Asset Management 2025

In May, we brought together our employees, outside advisors, and the directors of Willow Oak’s parent company for a planning session to discuss and define the company’s long-term goals. We have built an incredible ecosystem of investment managers over the past four years, and we wanted to determine the best ways to expand the resources Willow Oak Asset Management can provide to these managers.

The fundamental issue for sub $100 million managers is operational support and the distractions associated with non-investing activities. The investment managers who are in our ecosystem, and those whom we seek to attract, are solely focused on long-term investment returns. They want to get to an acceptable size for sure, but these are not managers who are interested in being asset gatherers.

I personally think the best way to obtain great, long-term investment returns is to have a small investment team. In many cases, this is one person or one person with one or two analysts. That one-person investment committee, as my friend Scott Miller calls it, allows for rapid decision-making and a strong commitment to portfolio holdings. These managers do not outsource their analyses or discipline. They have a significant amount of their own net worth in the investment strategies that they employ, and their interests are aligned with investors in every respect.

The most successful one-person investment firms have a strong network of other portfolio managers and investors with whom to share ideas. This can not only help with camaraderie and, at times, idea generation, but it also is helpful with learning new industries and deeply understanding new investment opportunities. Most of the managers in our network come from different industries and have real-world operational experience in various fields. It is tremendously helpful to be able to chat with a fellow manager who has operational experience in an industry being researched.

For investment managers focused on investment returns over asset gathering, it is a distraction to also have to be a manager of an operations team. Plus, a one- or two-person investment firm cannot afford to hire a COO, a marketing person, an investor relations person, a back-office person, a bookkeeper, a compliance person, etc. Nor would the manager need someone full-time in each role.

Willow Oak’s Fund Management Services (FMS) provides all of those necessary operational roles. This takes these responsibilities off of the investment manager’s plate, and it allows for a broader range of expertise. Willow Oak Asset Management has a team of employees that fulfill these roles for our affiliated firms. A firm may only need the services of a back-office person for five hours a week right now, for example, but as assets and the number of investors increase, Willow Oak’s dedicated back-office employee can increase activities and time as needed.

This increased infrastructure is often required to garner significant institutional allocations. Willow Oak’s capabilities give our affiliated firms the infrastructure that institutional investors demand. Willow Oak Asset Management provides the necessary due diligence documentation, communication and record-keeping capabilities, and other services that major allocators expect.

Finally, a relationship with Willow Oak’s FMS brings best practices and economies of scale with external service providers. FMS has preferred vendors that streamline the entire process, whether it is the administrator and auditor, or the compliance advisor, lawyers, or others. Willow Oak Asset Management is the liaison between the investment firm and these service providers.

On the investor- and prospect-relations side of the business, Jessica Greer and her team at FMS are the first point of contact for people and institutions looking to learn more about our affiliated funds. Portfolio managers get brought into the discussion when the time is right, but the fact is that there are a lot of logistical issues regarding offering documents, distribution of materials, and other communications that can be a distraction for portfolio managers or, if a fund is small, are simply not being done when they should be.

Many sub $100 million funds are missing opportunities because of a lack of internal capacity—missing opportunities with new investors and missing investment opportunities because portfolio managers are distracted by operational matters. Portfolio managers should be focused on the portfolio.

I understand these challenges through my work with Arquitos. I simply could not manage the portfolio without the operational support I get from FMS. When I launched Arquitos in 2012, I did not appreciate the infrastructure needs and the time commitment required to be a professional fund. Running a fund is a business and today’s regulatory environment does not let you do it like Warren Buffett ran his partnership in the 1960s. Plus, you can’t scale the firm without help. FMS provides that help in a cost-effective way.

The planning session that we held in May focused on expanding these activities and bringing them to more managers. A relationship with Willow Oak provides greater infrastructure at a fraction of the cost of a firm building out an internal operational team. Our goal is to provide these services in a way that allows firms to access these capabilities early in their lifecycle by charging the firm a fee share. We want to help firms grow and be there with them decades from now.

We seek managers who have at least a three-year track record and who currently manage between $10 million and $100 million in assets, although we are willing to accept firms outside of these parameters on a case-by-case basis. And we are agnostic in regard to investment strategies. Willow Oak is not limited by geography and may partner with firms throughout the world.

Marketing Activities

In-person marketing activities have obviously been curtailed during this time period. This has given our affiliated managers an opportunity to increase their participation in podcasts, video roundtables, and written interviews. Our affiliated managers participated in the SNN Network’s Virtual Conference and are excited to be working with Robert Kraft and his team at SNN to share our thoughts.

Of course, Geoff Gannon and Andrew Kuhn at Focused Compounding continue to churn out their podcasts, David Waters at Alluvial Capital continues to write at OTCadventures.com, Keith Smith at Bonhoeffer Fund continues to release in-depth research pieces, and I have been a regular podcast guest for SNN Network and other podcasts.

Willow Oak Asset Management also launched a video series named Value Hour for our YouTube channel. There we’ve held interviews with our affiliated managers, advisors, and service providers. During the quarter, we shared our thoughts on the Berkshire Hathaway meeting, discussed operational matters, and talked about challenges and opportunities during the pandemic. We look forward to providing additional resources in the coming months, and I encourage you to subscribe to Willow Oak’s YouTube channel at youtube.com/willowoakassetmanagement to be notified when new content is released.

You can view all updates from Willow Oak and our affiliated managers by visiting the news section of our website.

Quarterly Results

Willow Oak’s investment in Alluvial Fund is the major driver of our results each quarter. At the end of the second quarter, Willow Oak Asset Management’s interest in Alluvial was $9,532,332. This was an increase of $1,231,908 for the quarter including Willow Oak’s fee share. While we are happy to see the increased value, these short-term results are irrelevant to the long-term value of the relationship and our investment. We measure the success or failure of our investment in Alluvial in decades, not quarters, and we have been thrilled with the partnership with David Waters and Alluvial since 2017. Overall, for the second quarter, Willow Oak had comprehensive income of $1,175,077.

Closing

We are excited about this next chapter for Willow Oak Asset Management. If you would like to learn more about our Fund Management Services, please send a note to Jessica Greer at jessica@willowoakfunds.com. She would be happy to discuss our services.

Willow Oak’s near-term goals continue to be:

  • increasing AUM at our associated funds;
  • continuing to find alignment between our managers and like-minded investors and allocators;
  • adding funds to the Willow Oak platform;
  • increasing the visibility of Willow Oak and our associated funds; and
  • growing the Willow Oak network of emerging manager partners, investors, and FMS clients.

Thank you for your continued support.

Best regards,

Steven Kiel

Willow Oak Asset Management

This article first appeared on ValueWalk Premium.

The post Willow Oak Asset Management 2Q20 Letter: Finding Emerging Managers appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Analyst reviews Apple stock price target amid challenges

Here’s what could happen to Apple shares next.

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They said it was bound to happen.

It was Jan. 11, 2024 when software giant Microsoft  (MSFT)  briefly passed Apple  (AAPL)  as the most valuable company in the world.

Microsoft's stock closed 0.5% higher, giving it a market valuation of $2.859 trillion. 

It rose as much as 2% during the session and the company was briefly worth $2.903 trillion. Apple closed 0.3% lower, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.886 trillion. 

"It was inevitable that Microsoft would overtake Apple since Microsoft is growing faster and has more to benefit from the generative AI revolution," D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said at the time, according to Reuters.

The two tech titans have jostled for top spot over the years and Microsoft was ahead at last check, with a market cap of $3.085 trillion, compared with Apple's value of $2.684 trillion.

Analysts noted that Apple had been dealing with weakening demand, including for the iPhone, the company’s main source of revenue. 

Demand in China, a major market, has slumped as the country's economy makes a slow recovery from the pandemic and competition from Huawei.

Sales in China of Apple's iPhone fell by 24% in the first six weeks of 2024 compared with a year earlier, according to research firm Counterpoint, as the company contended with stiff competition from a resurgent Huawei "while getting squeezed in the middle on aggressive pricing from the likes of OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi," said senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang.

“Although the iPhone 15 is a great device, it has no significant upgrades from the previous version, so consumers feel fine holding on to the older-generation iPhones for now," he said.

A man scrolling through Netflix on an Apple iPad Pro. Photo by Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images.

Future Publishing/Getty Images

Big plans for China

Counterpoint said that the first six weeks of 2023 saw abnormally high numbers with significant unit sales being deferred from December 2022 due to production issues.

Apple is planning to open its eighth store in Shanghai – and its 47th across China – on March 21.

Related: Tech News Now: OpenAI says Musk contract 'never existed', Xiaomi's EV, and more

The company also plans to expand its research centre in Shanghai to support all of its product lines and open a new lab in southern tech hub Shenzhen later this year, according to the South China Morning Post.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, Apple announced changes to comply with the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which went into effect last week, Reuters reported on March 12.

Beginning this spring, software developers operating in Europe will be able to distribute apps to EU customers directly from their own websites instead of through the App Store.

"To reflect the DMA’s changes, users in the EU can install apps from alternative app marketplaces in iOS 17.4 and later," Apple said on its website, referring to the software platform that runs iPhones and iPads. 

"Users will be able to download an alternative marketplace app from the marketplace developer’s website," the company said.

Apple has also said it will appeal a $2 billion EU antitrust fine for thwarting competition from Spotify  (SPOT)  and other music streaming rivals via restrictions on the App Store.

The company's shares have suffered amid all this upheaval, but some analysts still see good things in Apple's future.

Bank of America Securities confirmed its positive stance on Apple, maintaining a buy rating with a steady price target of $225, according to Investing.com

The firm's analysis highlighted Apple's pricing strategy evolution since the introduction of the first iPhone in 2007, with initial prices set at $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB model.

BofA said that Apple has consistently launched new iPhone models, including the Pro/Pro Max versions, to target the premium market. 

Analyst says Apple selloff 'overdone'

Concurrently, prices for previous models are typically reduced by about $100 with each new release. 

This strategy, coupled with installment plans from Apple and carriers, has contributed to the iPhone's installed base reaching a record 1.2 billion in 2023, the firm said.

More Tech Stocks:

Apple has effectively shifted its sales mix toward higher-value units despite experiencing slower unit sales, BofA said.

This trend is expected to persist and could help mitigate potential unit sales weaknesses, particularly in China. 

BofA also noted Apple's dominance in the high-end market, maintaining a market share of over 90% in the $1,000 and above price band for the past three years.

The firm also cited the anticipation of a multi-year iPhone cycle propelled by next-generation AI technology, robust services growth, and the potential for margin expansion.

On Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said they believed that the sell-off in the iPhone maker’s shares may be “overdone.”

The firm said that investors' growing preference for AI-focused stocks like Nvidia  (NVDA)  has led to a reallocation of funds away from Apple. 

In addition, Evercore said concerns over weakening demand in China, where Apple may be losing market share in the smartphone segment, have affected investor sentiment.

And then ongoing regulatory issues continue to have an impact on investor confidence in the world's second-biggest company.

“We think the sell-off is rather overdone, while we suspect there is strong valuation support at current levels to down 10%, there are three distinct drivers that could unlock upside on the stock from here – a) Cap allocation, b) AI inferencing, and c) Risk-off/defensive shift," the firm said in a research note.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Major typhoid fever surveillance study in sub-Saharan Africa indicates need for the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high…

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There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Credit: IVI

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

 

The findings from this 4-year study, the Severe Typhoid in Africa (SETA) program, offers new typhoid fever burden estimates from six countries: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Nigeria, with four countries recording more than 100 cases for every 100,000 person-years of observation, which is considered a high burden. The highest incidence of typhoid was found in DRC with 315 cases per 100,000 people while children between 2-14 years of age were shown to be at highest risk across all 25 study sites.

 

There are an estimated 12.5 to 16.3 million cases of typhoid every year with 140,000 deaths. However, with generic symptoms such as fever, fatigue, and abdominal pain, and the need for blood culture sampling to make a definitive diagnosis, it is difficult for governments to capture the true burden of typhoid in their countries.

 

“Our goal through SETA was to address these gaps in typhoid disease burden data,” said lead author Dr. Florian Marks, Deputy Director General of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). “Our estimates indicate that introduction of TCV in endemic settings would go to lengths in protecting communities, especially school-aged children, against this potentially deadly—but preventable—disease.”

 

In addition to disease incidence, this study also showed that the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Salmonella Typhi, the bacteria that causes typhoid fever, has led to more reliance beyond the traditional first line of antibiotic treatment. If left untreated, severe cases of the disease can lead to intestinal perforation and even death. This suggests that prevention through vaccination may play a critical role in not only protecting against typhoid fever but reducing the spread of drug-resistant strains of the bacteria.

 

There are two TCVs prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and available through Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. In February 2024, IVI and SK bioscience announced that a third TCV, SKYTyphoid™, also achieved WHO PQ, paving the way for public procurement and increasing the global supply.

 

Alongside the SETA disease burden study, IVI has been working with colleagues in three African countries to show the real-world impact of TCV vaccination. These studies include a cluster-randomized trial in Agogo, Ghana and two effectiveness studies following mass vaccination in Kisantu, DRC and Imerintsiatosika, Madagascar.

 

Dr. Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Associate Director General at IVI and Head of the Real-World Evidence Department, explains, “Through these vaccine effectiveness studies, we aim to show the full public health value of TCV in settings that are directly impacted by a high burden of typhoid fever.” He adds, “Our final objective of course is to eliminate typhoid or to at least reduce the burden to low incidence levels, and that’s what we are attempting in Fiji with an island-wide vaccination campaign.”

 

As more countries in typhoid endemic countries, namely in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, consider TCV in national immunization programs, these data will help inform evidence-based policy decisions around typhoid prevention and control.

 

###

 

About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)
The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that is recently pre-qualified by WHO.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, a Country Office in Austria, and Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.

 

CONTACT

Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 | aerie.em@ivi.int


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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC’s…

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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever... And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC's Brian Sullivan took a horse dose of Red Pills when, about six months after our readers, he learned that the US is issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, which prompted him to rage tweet, (or rageX, not sure what the proper term is here) the following:

We’ve added 60% to national debt since 2018. Germany - a country with major economic woes - added ‘just’ 32%.   

Maybe it will never matter.   Maybe MMT is real.   Maybe we just cancel or inflate it out. Maybe career real estate borrowers or career politicians aren’t the answer.

I have no idea.  Only time will tell.   But it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out.

He is right: it will be fascinating, and the latest budget deficit data simply confirmed that the day of reckoning will come very soon, certainly sooner than the two years that One River's Eric Peters predicted this weekend for the coming "US debt sustainability crisis."

According to the US Treasury, in February, the US collected $271 billion in various tax receipts, and spent $567 billion, more than double what it collected.

The two charts below show the divergence in US tax receipts which have flatlined (on a trailing 6M basis) since the covid pandemic in 2020 (with occasional stimmy-driven surges)...

... and spending which is about 50% higher compared to where it was in 2020.

The end result is that in February, the budget deficit rose to $296.3 billion, up 12.9% from a year prior, and the second highest February deficit on record.

And the punchline: on a cumulative basis, the budget deficit in fiscal 2024 which began on October 1, 2023 is now $828 billion, the second largest cumulative deficit through February on record, surpassed only by the peak covid year of 2021.

But wait there's more: because in a world where the US is spending more than twice what it is collecting, the endgame is clear: debt collapse, and while it won't be tomorrow, or the week after, it is coming... and it's also why the US is now selling $1 trillion in debt every 100 days just to keep operating (and absorbing all those millions of illegal immigrants who will keep voting democrat to preserve the socialist system of the US, so beloved by the Soros clan).

And it gets even worse, because we are now in the ponzi finance stage of the Minsky cycle, with total interest on the debt annualizing well above $1 trillion, and rising every day

... having already surpassed total US defense spending and soon to surpass total health spending and, finally all social security spending, the largest spending category of all, which means that US debt will now rise exponentially higher until the inevitable moment when the US dollar loses its reserve status and it all comes crashing down.

We conclude with another observation by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who quotes an email by a DC strategist...

.. which lays out the proposed Biden budget as follows:

The budget deficit will growth another $16 TRILLION over next 10 years. Thats *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.

Without them the deficit will grow $19 trillion.

That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.

No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math.

Of course, in the long run, neither can the US... and since neither party will ever cut the spending which everyone by now is so addicted to, the best anyone can do is start planning for the endgame.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/12/2024 - 18:40

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