Spread & Containment
Will US Inflation Continue To Accelerate?
Yes, according to economists’ forecast for this Friday’s November update (Dec. 10) on consumer prices. Econoday.com’s consensus point forecast anticipates that the consumer price index (CPI) at the headline level will ramp up to a 6.8% year-over-year…

Yes, according to economists’ forecast for this Friday’s November update (Dec. 10) on consumer prices.
Econoday.com’s consensus point forecast anticipates that the consumer price index (CPI) at the headline level will ramp up to a 6.8% year-over-year increase. If correct, consumer inflation will accelerate to the highest annual rate since the early 1980s. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is lower, which is encouraging because this profile of inflation is a more reliable measure of the trend. But here too the outlook for the upcoming November data points to a hotter trend. Core CPI is forecast to rise to 4.9% — the highest since the early 1990s.
The projections are all the more worrisome now that the Federal Reserve has retired the word “transitory” from its vocabulary for assessing the recent inflation surge. Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell is still expecting that pricing pressure will ease in 2022, the decision to retire the word “transitory” from official explanations suggests the central bank anticipates that higher inflation will persist for longer than previously expected.
“Generally, the higher prices we’re seeing are related to the supply-and-demand imbalances that can be traced directly back to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy, but it’s also the case that price increases have spread much more broadly in the recent few months,” Powell advised last week. “I think the risk of higher inflation has increased.”
The shift in tone has juiced expectations that rate hikes are nearer than the market expected previously.
“It looks like the Fed wants to create some space to give them the option to raise rates well before the end of next year if they feel they need to,” says Brian Coulton, chief economist for Fitch Ratings.
Fed funds futures are still projecting a low probability for rate hikes for the near future, but expectations for an increase from the current 0%-0.25% Fed funds target rate are now rising for the months ahead. Starting with a virtually nil probability for a rate hike at next week’s Dec. 15 FOMC meeting, CME data indicates that higher probability estimates unfold quickly for the new year. The first rise above 50% for market-based expectations for a rate hike: the May 4, 2022 Fed meeting.
As for this Friday’s update on November inflation, CapitalSpectator.com’s Inflation Trend Index (ITI) leaves room for a softer-than-predicted increase. Today’s revised estimates for ITI show that inflation pressure is forecast to hold steady in November and December, albeit at a sharply higher level vs. recent history.

Keep in mind that ITI seeks to offer a degree of forward guidance on the directional bias of pricing activity in real time. Note too that ITI is NOT a proxy for estimating the government’s consumer price index. Rather, it’s a profile of price-trend behavior using 13 indicators and naïvely carrying forward the median change to estimate current and near-term-future inflation pressures.
On that basis, the steady-but-elevated ITI readings for November and December hint at the possibility that inflation is peaking. Let’s see if Friday’s CPI data offers any support for that profile.
Learn To Use R For Portfolio Analysis
Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R:
An Introduction To R For Modeling Portfolio Risk and Return
By James Picerno
reopening pandemic fomc fed federal reserve spread
Spread & Containment
Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination Weakens Immune System: Study
Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination Weakens Immune System: Study
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Repeated COVID-19…

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Repeated COVID-19 vaccination weakens the immune system, potentially making people susceptible to life-threatening conditions such as cancer, according to a new study.
Multiple doses of the Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines lead to higher levels of antibodies called IgG4, which can provide a protective effect. But a growing body of evidence indicates that the “abnormally high levels” of the immunoglobulin subclass actually make the immune system more susceptible to the COVID-19 spike protein in the vaccines, researchers said in the paper.
They pointed to experiments performed on mice that found multiple boosters on top of the initial COVID-19 vaccination “significantly decreased” protection against both the Delta and Omicron virus variants and testing that found a spike in IgG4 levels after repeat Pfizer vaccination, suggesting immune exhaustion.
Studies have detected higher levels of IgG4 in people who died with COVID-19 when compared to those who recovered and linked the levels with another known determinant of COVID-19-related mortality, the researchers also noted.
A review of the literature also showed that vaccines against HIV, malaria, and pertussis also induce the production of IgG4.
“In sum, COVID-19 epidemiological studies cited in our work plus the failure of HIV, Malaria, and Pertussis vaccines constitute irrefutable evidence demonstrating that an increase in IgG4 levels impairs immune responses,” Alberto Rubio Casillas, a researcher with the biology laboratory at the University of Guadalajara in Mexico and one of the authors of the new paper, told The Epoch Times via email.
The paper was published by the journal Vaccines in May.
Pfizer and Moderna officials didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Both companies utilize messenger RNA (mRNA) technology in their vaccines.
Dr. Robert Malone, who helped invent the technology, said the paper illustrates why he’s been warning about the negative effects of repeated vaccination.
“I warned that more jabs can result in what’s called high zone tolerance, of which the switch to IgG4 is one of the mechanisms. And now we have data that clearly demonstrate that’s occurring in the case of this as well as some other vaccines,” Malone, who wasn’t involved with the study, told The Epoch Times.
“So it’s basically validating that this rush to administer and re-administer without having solid data to back those decisions was highly counterproductive and appears to have resulted in a cohort of people that are actually more susceptible to the disease.”
Possible Problems
The weakened immune systems brought about by repeated vaccination could lead to serious problems, including cancer, the researchers said.
Read more here...
Spread & Containment
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Banned By Major Social Media Site, Campaign Pages Blocked
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Banned By Major Social Media Site, Campaign Pages Blocked
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Twitter…

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Twitter owner Elon Musk invited Democrat presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for a discussion on his Twitter Spaces after Kennedy said his campaign was suspended by Meta-owned Instagram.
“Interesting… when we use our TeamKennedy email address to set up @instagram accounts we get an automatic 180-day ban. Can anyone guess why that’s happening?” he wrote on Twitter.
An accompanying image shows that Instagram said it “suspended” his “Team Kennedy” account and that there “are 180 days remaining to disagree” with the company’s decision.
In response to his post, Musk wrote: “Would you like to do a Spaces discussion with me next week?” Kennedy agreed, saying he would do it Monday at 2 p.m. ET.
Hours later, Kennedy wrote that Instagram “still hasn’t reinstated my account, which was banned years ago with more than 900k followers.” He argued that “to silence a major political candidate is profoundly undemocratic.”
“Social media is the modern equivalent of the town square,” the candidate, who is the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy, wrote. “How can democracy function if only some candidates have access to it?”
The Epoch Times approached Instagram for comment.
Interesting… when we use our TeamKennedy email address to set up @instagram accounts we get an automatic 180-day ban. Can anyone guess why that’s happening? pic.twitter.com/0G8oRnoXTv
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) June 2, 2023
It’s not the first time that either Facebook or Instagram has taken action against Kennedy. In 2021, Instagram banned him from posting claims about vaccine safety and COVID-19.
After he was banned by the platform, Kennedy said that his Instagram posts raised legitimate concerns about vaccines and were backed by research. His account was banned just days after Facebook and Instagram announced they would block the spread of what they described as misinformation about vaccines, including research saying the shots cause autism, are dangerous, or are ineffective.
“This kind of censorship is counterproductive if our objective is a safe and effective vaccine supply,” he said at the time.
Read more here...
Spread & Containment
Study Falsely Linking Hydroxychloroquine To Increased Deaths Frequently Cited Even After Retraction
Study Falsely Linking Hydroxychloroquine To Increased Deaths Frequently Cited Even After Retraction
Authored by Jessie Zhang via Thje Epoch…

Authored by Jessie Zhang via Thje Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
An Australian and Swedish investigation has found that among the hundreds of COVID-19 research papers that have been withdrawn, a retracted study linking the drug hydroxychloroquine to increased mortality was the most cited paper.
With 1,360 citations at the time of data extraction, researchers in the field were still referring to the paper “Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis” long after it was retracted.
Authors of the analysis involving the University of Wollongong, Linköping University, and Western Sydney Local Health District wrote (pdf) that “most researchers who cite retracted research do not identify that the paper is retracted, even when submitting long after the paper has been withdrawn.”
“This has serious implications for the reliability of published research and the academic literature, which need to be addressed,” they said.
“Retraction is the final safeguard against academic error and misconduct, and thus a cornerstone of the entire process of knowledge generation.”
Scientists Question Findings
Over 100 medical professionals wrote an open letter, raising ten major issues with the paper.
These included the fact that there was “no ethics review” and “unusually small reported variances in baseline variables, interventions and outcomes,” as well as “no mention of the countries or hospitals that contributed to the data source and no acknowledgments to their contributions.”

Other concerns were that the average daily doses of hydroxychloroquine were higher than the FDA-recommended amounts, which would present skewed results.
They also found that the data that was reportedly from Australian patients did not seem to match data from the Australian government.
Eventually, the study led the World Health Organization to temporarily suspend the trial of hydroxychloroquine on COVID-19 patients and to the UK regulatory body, MHRA, requesting the temporary pause of recruitment into all hydroxychloroquine trials in the UK.
France also changed its national recommendation of the drug in COVID-19 treatments and halted all trials.
Currently, a total of 337 research papers on COVID-19 have been retracted, according to Retraction Watch.
Further retractions are expected as the investigation of proceeds.
-
Spread & Containment4 hours ago
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Banned By Major Social Media Site, Campaign Pages Blocked
-
Spread & Containment6 hours ago
Study Falsely Linking Hydroxychloroquine To Increased Deaths Frequently Cited Even After Retraction
-
Spread & Containment14 hours ago
Mark Zuckerberg Moves to Kill a Pandemic Habit
-
Government10 hours ago
Biden Signs Debt Ceiling Bill, Ending Monthslong Political Battle
-
International14 hours ago
Complying, Not Defying: Twitter And The EU Censorship Code
-
Uncategorized7 hours ago
Warren Buffett’s Advice on Stocks vs. Bonds
-
Spread & Containment11 hours ago
Mark Zuckerberg Makes a Bold Move
-
Spread & Containment3 hours ago
Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination Weakens Immune System: Study