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Why The 2020 Gold Rush Is Not Over

Why The 2020 Gold Rush Is Not Over

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Gold Rush

The Gold Rush Pause

This year, precious metals so far have seen a rise in demand and price that has not happened since 2011. The 2020 gold rush saw the gold price rise by approximately $500 since the beginning of the year despite fluctuations. The lowest gold price of 2020 was about $1500 in March, and it reached a high of $2047 on August 8th. Last week, the gold price plummeted from $2000 to an overnight low of $1890 on August 11. Despite this drop, the gold price is slowly picking itself back up for the gold rush, especially on Monday where it balanced around $1990. How can this be?

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Gold Rush

For starters, jobless claims for the week of August 8 plummeted to only 963,000 for a two-week-streak decline. This is the first time that claims fell since the pandemic. The gold rush, therefore, began to slow, then rose again on Monday August 17th. December Gold Futures closed around $1950 per troy ounce before the weekend. This was still lower than the week before that, but the price appears to be steadily increasing. Its high as of August 17th was $2,000 per ounce.

So why did gold not jump after the jobless claims report release? Some believe it is because although there was a decline in claims, they still remain high due to the pandemic. Naeem Aslam, the Chief Market Analyst of AvaTrade, reasoned that not many people are actually selling right now. But, gold was overbought last week. On top of that, Will Cai of Wilshire Phoenix Funds maintains that gold is becoming more important to diversify with and create a long-term hedge against inflation and volatility.

As more people turn to gold, it appears the gold rush has room to grow. Now that Warren Buffet seeming joined the gold rush in the form of Barrick Gold shares, the gold price steadily rose on August 17th. Gold is certainly glittering in the eyes of investors, and its appeal might continue for a long time against other assets.

Return of the Roaring 20’s Stock Market?

Ed Yardeni, the Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research, on August 12th noted similarities between the 1920s and the path for 2020. He compared the situation of the 1918 Spanish Flu to 2020’s COVID. Considering the economic climate, this poses the question, does history repeat itself?

What Happened During the Great Depression?

Let’s take a moment to briefly consider the Roaring 20s. The stock market was handled in an irresponsible manner with a surplus of Americans entering the market and dumping all their savings into investing. The market rapidly expanded in response. But with many people buying on credit and having low wages, debt and a surplus of unsold goods accumulated. Even the agricultural industry suffered from drought and cheaper food prices.

Gold Rush

Source: BusinessInsider

Finally, in October of 1929, the stock market crashed as overpriced shares were sold off with many individuals seeking to cut down on debt. The stock market crash of 1929 led to a panic at Wall Street, which destroyed millions of people’s investments. Then, the next several years saw reduced consumer spending and investment. This led to further declines, weaker industrial output, and greater unemployment. People tried to buy stocks with borrowed money, which fell through. This demonstrated that if there are little to no consumers, then the economy cannot function.

There was also a brief gold rush at this time. From 1929-1934, the price rose from $20.67 per troy oz to $35. People hoarded gold as the Federal Reserve tried to maintain the gold standard. In 1934, however, President FDR outlawed private ownership of precious metals. He believed investing in gold and not participating in the economy stalled the recovery. As a result, gold ownership was not permitted until 1974. Then, President Gerald Ford overturned the Gold Reserve Act with Executive Order 6102. Fun fact, the American Gold Eagle was the first modern US gold coin program since the re-legalization of precious metals ownership!

Yardeni’s Analysis

Although comparing the Great Depression to today is ominous, he also suggested that we still have time before a massive stock market crash like 1929. As of this time, he believes that stocks will finish in the green for the year, and possibly continue into 2021. However, he sounds the alarm for 2029 as the year for the next massive stock market crash. Fears surrounding another major crash into a Depression also signals an environment for the gold rush to continue. Possibly the most positive piece of good news from Yardeni is increased medical research. He asserted that this might lead to significantly more efficient medicine against more illnesses. This could include most strains of the coronavirus in the future.

This analysis appears to be in line with Goldman Sachs’ prediction. Jeffrey Currie, the Head of Commodities, argues that even if there is a vaccine in November, it might not be widely accessible until Q1 of 2021. What this means to Currie is that we need more economic stimulus. More stimulus means there is more downside risk in real rates. As a result, this will drive gold up, furthering the gold rush. This is especially true if the Fed prints more money and inflation rises.

Should I Hold On To Cash?

Last week, an interesting study by fund management giant Vanguard Group made headlines. Their study focused on what happened to investors who abandoned the market during the pandemic. According to their study, those who cashed out of the market early did not end up doing better than those who stayed.

Although at the end of March, they did better, the market went up again, and they missed its rise. “By the end of May, 84% of the defined contribution cash panickers had worse returns than their pre-pandemic portfolio, which 86% of retail cash panickers doing worse” (Goldstein, MarketWatch). Vanguard also said that less than 0.5% of their clients moved into total-cash portfolios.

If Yardeni predicts a crash in the next nine years and the government has not yet agreed on a COVID stimulus package, should you be working on massively growing your savings? The general consensus is if you can afford to do something like buy a house or join the gold rush, then you should do what you think is best for you. Borrowing rates are low for the rest of 2020 at least. The gold rush demand is also lower than it has been for at least a week, so if you are looking to buy gold, it is better to make a plan to do it soon. The gold rush has room to further expand, especially with the election looming over the United States.

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Key shipping company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

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The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Key shipping company files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

Published

on

The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Tight inventory and frustrated buyers challenge agents in Virginia

With inventory a little more than half of what it was pre-pandemic, agents are struggling to find homes for clients in Virginia.

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No matter where you are in the state, real estate agents in Virginia are facing low inventory conditions that are creating frustrating scenarios for their buyers.

“I think people are getting used to the interest rates where they are now, but there is just a huge lack of inventory,” said Chelsea Newcomb, a RE/MAX Realty Specialists agent based in Charlottesville. “I have buyers that are looking, but to find a house that you love enough to pay a high price for — and to be at over a 6.5% interest rate — it’s just a little bit harder to find something.”

Newcomb said that interest rates and higher prices, which have risen by more than $100,000 since March 2020, according to data from Altos Research, have caused her clients to be pickier when selecting a home.

“When rates and prices were lower, people were more willing to compromise,” Newcomb said.

Out in Wise, Virginia, near the westernmost tip of the state, RE/MAX Cavaliers agent Brett Tiller and his clients are also struggling to find suitable properties.

“The thing that really stands out, especially compared to two years ago, is the lack of quality listings,” Tiller said. “The slightly more upscale single-family listings for move-up buyers with children looking for their forever home just aren’t coming on the market right now, and demand is still very high.”

Statewide, Virginia had a 90-day average of 8,068 active single-family listings as of March 8, 2024, down from 14,471 single-family listings in early March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Altos Research. That represents a decrease of 44%.

Virginia-Inventory-Line-Chart-Virginia-90-day-Single-Family

In Newcomb’s base metro area of Charlottesville, there were an average of only 277 active single-family listings during the same recent 90-day period, compared to 892 at the onset of the pandemic. In Wise County, there were only 56 listings.

Due to the demand from move-up buyers in Tiller’s area, the average days on market for homes with a median price of roughly $190,000 was just 17 days as of early March 2024.

“For the right home, which is rare to find right now, we are still seeing multiple offers,” Tiller said. “The demand is the same right now as it was during the heart of the pandemic.”

According to Tiller, the tight inventory has caused homebuyers to spend up to six months searching for their new property, roughly double the time it took prior to the pandemic.

For Matt Salway in the Virginia Beach metro area, the tight inventory conditions are creating a rather hot market.

“Depending on where you are in the area, your listing could have 15 offers in two days,” the agent for Iron Valley Real Estate Hampton Roads | Virginia Beach said. “It has been crazy competition for most of Virginia Beach, and Norfolk is pretty hot too, especially for anything under $400,000.”

According to Altos Research, the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News housing market had a seven-day average Market Action Index score of 52.44 as of March 14, making it the seventh hottest housing market in the country. Altos considers any Market Action Index score above 30 to be indicative of a seller’s market.

Virginia-Beach-Metro-Area-Market-Action-Index-Line-Chart-Virginia-Beach-Norfolk-Newport-News-VA-NC-90-day-Single-Family

Further up the coastline on the vacation destination of Chincoteague Island, Long & Foster agent Meghan O. Clarkson is also seeing a decent amount of competition despite higher prices and interest rates.

“People are taking their time to actually come see things now instead of buying site unseen, and occasionally we see some seller concessions, but the traffic and the demand is still there; you might just work a little longer with people because we don’t have anything for sale,” Clarkson said.

“I’m busy and constantly have appointments, but the underlying frenzy from the height of the pandemic has gone away, but I think it is because we have just gotten used to it.”

While much of the demand that Clarkson’s market faces is for vacation homes and from retirees looking for a scenic spot to retire, a large portion of the demand in Salway’s market comes from military personnel and civilians working under government contracts.

“We have over a dozen military bases here, plus a bunch of shipyards, so the closer you get to all of those bases, the easier it is to sell a home and the faster the sale happens,” Salway said.

Due to this, Salway said that existing-home inventory typically does not come on the market unless an employment contract ends or the owner is reassigned to a different base, which is currently contributing to the tight inventory situation in his market.

Things are a bit different for Tiller and Newcomb, who are seeing a decent number of buyers from other, more expensive parts of the state.

“One of the crazy things about Louisa and Goochland, which are kind of like suburbs on the western side of Richmond, is that they are growing like crazy,” Newcomb said. “A lot of people are coming in from Northern Virginia because they can work remotely now.”

With a Market Action Index score of 50, it is easy to see why people are leaving the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria market for the Charlottesville market, which has an index score of 41.

In addition, the 90-day average median list price in Charlottesville is $585,000 compared to $729,900 in the D.C. area, which Newcomb said is also luring many Virginia homebuyers to move further south.

Median-Price-D.C.-vs.-Charlottesville-Line-Chart-90-day-Single-Family

“They are very accustomed to higher prices, so they are super impressed with the prices we offer here in the central Virginia area,” Newcomb said.

For local buyers, Newcomb said this means they are frequently being outbid or outpriced.

“A couple who is local to the area and has been here their whole life, they are just now starting to get their mind wrapped around the fact that you can’t get a house for $200,000 anymore,” Newcomb said.

As the year heads closer to spring, triggering the start of the prime homebuying season, agents in Virginia feel optimistic about the market.

“We are seeing seasonal trends like we did up through 2019,” Clarkson said. “The market kind of soft launched around President’s Day and it is still building, but I expect it to pick right back up and be in full swing by Easter like it always used to.”

But while they are confident in demand, questions still remain about whether there will be enough inventory to support even more homebuyers entering the market.

“I have a lot of buyers starting to come off the sidelines, but in my office, I also have a lot of people who are going to list their house in the next two to three weeks now that the weather is starting to break,” Newcomb said. “I think we are going to have a good spring and summer.”

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