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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

NAR has a very critical data line, which shows that 82% of the active listings are being sold within a month.
The post Why home-price growth is still up…



On Tuesday, the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller Index reported that national home prices grew 18% year over year. While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels.

From the index:

I know it seems strange, but existing home sales are falling, and the monthly supply of new homes is at 10.9 months even if the last existing home sales report showed home price growth of near 11% year over year. 

There is a simple explanation for this, but you’re going to have to believe that supply and demand economics still work and that the credit profiles of homeowners matter more than people think. This means all those men and women since 2012 who have been saying its housing 2008 all over again on their YouTube, Twitter, Facebook and other social media outlets simply don’t have the proper training to talk about housing economics. I have documented the history of these housing price crash addicts for a decade now.

Housing inventory issue with no booming demand

My observation post-2020 is that many people have never read the total housing inventory data because we still have people who say active listings aren’t low or that it’s fake news. I understand why anti-Central Bank people say this because they want to blame everything on the Federal Reserve and say it’s just been booming demand.

However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Nor can we ever have a credit sales boom again with lending standards back to normal. Case in point, purchase application data is already below 2008 levels today. 

Total Inventory had been growing from 2001-2005; total listings data in 2005 was at the higher historical range of 2.5 million listings. We broke to all-time lows post-2020, continuing the trend of lower inventory. Today, we stand at 1,310,000 active listings.

NAR Total Listing Data:

If we cut the timeline to the last time inventory grew, which was 2014, you can see this downtrend in inventory, unlike 2001-2005, when inventory grew from 2 million to 2.5 million. Inventory has been falling for years but people ignored the trend because some were always talking about the housing bubble 2.0 crash, especially from 2012-2019.

Then we can see a vicious break to all-time lows in 2020 when we didn’t have a seasonal push in inventory, and even today, with the weakness in home sales, we aren’t back to the range I believe would be ok, between 1.52-1.93 million. I don’t need to see total active listing get back to the historical range of 2-2.5 million to take the savagely unhealthy theme off, but I do need us to get into a range between 1.52-1.93 million, like I have talked about for some time now.

New listings are declining now

One of the issues with existing home inventory has been that, for the most part, a traditional seller is usually a buyer of a home. I am not talking about investors; I am talking about primary resident homeowners. Some sell to rent, of course. However, traditionally speaking, they buy a home.

One of the points of concern this year has been that when rates got toward 6%, this could potentially have new listings decline faster than normal because buying a home after selling might not be the best financial decision. Inventory is always seasonal, but the decline in new listings this year was not what I wanted to see. The decrease also happened when rates fell 1.25% from the recent highs of 6.25% back down to 5%. This is not encouraging news at all, in my view.

From Redfin

The recent decline in new listings has impacted the active listings to be negative now year to date. From

Even with demand weakness in recent months, days on market are still low.

This is the most frustrating aspect of housing and the inventory situation. Because total inventory data is still low historically, the days on the market are not growing, year over year, per the last two existing home sales reports. NAR has a very critical data line, which shows that 82% of the active listings are being sold within a month. This is a much higher percentage than what we saw pre-COVID-19. This is also the most recent data, so the decline in sales still hasn’t increased the total inventory levels high enough to get back to pre-COVID-19 levels.

From the NAR

In the last existing home sales report, you can see the year-over-year decline on the days on market data.

In the early 1980s we had a significant sales decline from 4 million to 2 million, but we had more active listings then. In 2022, despite our robust sales declines, we are still seeing low days on the market because total active listings are still lower today than then.  

Also, homeowners on paper look great with fixed long-term debt products and have positive cash flow, so owners need a valid reason to sell. The next job loss recession, when it happens, will have more foreclosures, short sales, and bankruptcies. However, not to the degree we saw from 2005-2008. The 2005 bankruptcy reform laws and the 2010 Qualified Mortgage laws, once passed, created an expansion that has produced the highest quality homeowners in our lifetime.

Note: Even with the savings rate percentage below pre-COVID-19 levels, we still have net excess savings of over 2 trillion dollars.

With housing tenure much longer post-2008, people’s wages have increased yearly, and their cash flow has improved with multiple refinancing since 2012. 

Since we never had any exotic loan debt products in the system post-2010, you don’t see foreclosures and bankruptcies rising even as the expansion was moving along like what we saw in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008.

To wrap it up, inventory started the year at all-time lows, which is the most significant reason pricing is still firm even this late in the year. The growth rate of pricing above 20% wasn’t sustainable, and I and others are rooting for this madness to stop. However, there is a proper way to talk about and price cooling market other than saying 2008 every day of your life.

As I have stressed, people need to be patient with inventory growth and not run 2002-2011 credit sales to inventory models for this marketplace. It hasn’t worked since 2012 for a reason. Weakness in demand can create inventory, but it takes time because each new year we have new traditional listings.

Since we are so close to the fall, it’s time to look at housing with a 2023 outlook because seasonality will kick in soon. The growth rate of home prices is already cooling off, and the Case Shiller report lags that data, just like in October of 2020 when prices started to rise, but the data back then lagged the price growth.

I am all for price growth to fall and decline to get my price growth model back in line. As any analyst will tell you, you can’t just give up tracking data and throw up a random percent decline number and then hope that happens. Any good analyst will account for all the variables around the sector they follow. This is why I take the economic data one day at a time and stress that inventory growth needs more weakness and time.

I know the popular theme in 2021 was that we were going to see mass selling from homeowners who wanted to get out of their homes before prices crashed. This of course didn’t happen, but for me personally, something more problematic is happening right now. New listing data has fallen so much in the last seven weeks that it’s impacting the active listing data year to date, making it go slightly negative according to data. This isn’t what I wanted to see happen because it keeps the housing market stuck in a savagely unhealthy state.

The post Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year appeared first on HousingWire.

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“The Face Of The Digital Censorship Movement”: Matt Taibbi Calls Out Amy Klobuchar

"The Face Of The Digital Censorship Movement": Matt Taibbi Calls Out Amy Klobuchar

Authored by Matt Taibbi via Racket News,

If you read this…



"The Face Of The Digital Censorship Movement": Matt Taibbi Calls Out Amy Klobuchar

Authored by Matt Taibbi via Racket News,

If you read this morning’s Racket article about Senator Amy Klobuchar’s letter to Jeff Bezos asking for “proactive measures” to suppress sites like Substack or Rumble, you probably gathered I’m in a mood.

I’ve had it.

Whether it’s NewsGuard slapping “anti-US” labels on Joe Lauria and Consortium News, or Drs. Jay Bhattacharya, Aaron Kheriaty, and Martin Kulldorff censored on multiple platforms for being right on Covid, or podcaster Alison Morrow fired from a state job for interviewing Kheriaty, or friend CJ Hopkins in Germany criminally convicted for a book cover, or the FBI asking Twitter to remove Aaron Mate for the Ukrainian Secret Police, or ballooning budget requests of “counter-disinformation” enforcement agencies, or the new jailing even of Owen Shroyer for having “helped create January 6th” with speech, or of course the forever-detention of Julian Assange, and above all the total indifference of legacy media to all of it, it’s over. I’ve lost patience. Time for a more focused approach.

A problem when grappling with the censorship hydra is that it has no public face, no Tipper Gore or Jerry Falwell to personify the topic. Klobuchar, for reasons listed this morning and beyond, is right for this role. She needs to be Red Pencil Amy, Blacklist Amy, Amy “Thought Police” Klobuchar. And longshot or not, removal of her from office in next year’s election or even from Senate leadership positions is a worthwhile goal. The rest of Washington needs to read public sentiment about this issue through a colleague’s public relations dilemma.

I’ve already got a lot on my plate, but I’ll make Klobuchar a personal branding project, even if it takes time. I’ll write up any move she makes in this direction, or not in this direction. Her lesser-known partner in the bid to make Amazon a “verified sources only” zone, congressman Joseph Morelle of the Rochester, New York area, can be thrown in. Think of Morelle as the VP half of the censorship movement’s ticket. It’s nothing personal. At earlier times this person could have been anyone from Rick Stengel to Adam Schiff (especially him) or Mark Warner. Klobuchar and Morelle just picked the wrong time in my personal downward spiral to pull this stunt.

T-shirting, postering, meming ideas very welcome.

Incidentally, I’m still planning town halls on the speech subject, and in fact have one confirmed at my old college in the third week of November. (Details to come). Willing to do more if anyone can help on the venue side. Although perhaps these events would be best held in Minnesota now.

For readers who might be concerned I’m losing my mind, you’re not wrong. What can I say? Even my dog flashes worried looks at me these days. But I was pushed. Pushed I say! And so were many, many others. A la bataille!

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/26/2023 - 19:50

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AIs could soon run businesses – it’s an opportunity to ensure these ‘artificial persons’ follow the law

If a business is run by an AI and it causes you harm, could you sue the AI?



If AIs are going to play a role in society, they'll need to understand the law. PhonlamaiPhoto/iStock via Getty Images

Only “persons” can engage with the legal system – for example, by signing contracts or filing lawsuits. There are two main categories of persons: humans, termed “natural persons,” and creations of the law, termed “artificial persons.” These include corporations, nonprofit organizations and limited liability companies (LLCs).

Up to now, artificial persons have served the purpose of helping humans achieve certain goals. For example, people can pool assets in a corporation and limit their liability vis-à-vis customers or other persons who interact with the corporation. But a new type of artificial person is poised to enter the scene – artificial intelligence systems, and they won’t necessarily serve human interests.

As scholars who study AI and law we believe that this moment presents a significant challenge to the legal system: how to regulate AI within existing legal frameworks to reduce undesirable behaviors, and how to assign legal responsibility for autonomous actions of AIs.

One solution is teaching AIs to be law-abiding entities.

This is far from a philosophical question. The laws governing LLCs in several U.S. states do not require that humans oversee the operations of an LLC. In fact, in some states it is possible to have an LLC with no human owner, or “member” – for example, in cases where all of the partners have died. Though legislators probably weren’t thinking of AI when they crafted the LLC laws, the possibility for zero-member LLCs opens the door to creating LLCs operated by AIs.

Many functions inside small and large companies have already been delegated to AI in part, including financial operations, human resources and network management, to name just three. AIs can now perform many tasks as well as humans do. For example, AIs can read medical X-rays and do other medical tasks, and carry out tasks that require legal reasoning. This process is likely to accelerate due to innovation and economic interests.

A different kind of person

Humans have occasionally included nonhuman entities like animals, lakes and rivers, as well as corporations, as legal subjects. Though in some cases these entities can be held liable for their actions, the law only allows humans to fully participate in the legal system.

One major barrier to full access to the legal system by nonhuman entities has been the role of language as a uniquely human invention and a vital element in the legal system. Language enables humans to understand norms and institutions that constitute the legal framework. But humans are no longer the only entities using human language.

The recent development of AI’s ability to understand human language unlocks its potential to interact with the legal system. AI has demonstrated proficiency in various legal tasks, such as tax law advice, lobbying, contract drafting and legal reasoning.

A humanoid robot and a man in a business suit shake hands while standing on an industrial waterfront
Would you do business with an AI that didn’t know the law? SM/AIUEO/The Image Bank via Getty Images

An LLC established in a jurisdiction that allows it to operate without human members could trade in digital currencies settled on blockchains, allowing the AI running the LLC to operate autonomously and in a decentralized manner that makes it challenging to regulate. Under a legal principle known as the internal affairs doctrine, even if only one U.S. state allowed AI-operated LLCs, that entity could operate nationwide – and possibly worldwide. This is because courts look to the law of the state of incorporation for rules governing the internal affairs of a corporate entity.

We believe the best path forward, therefore, is aligning AI with existing laws, instead of creating a separate set of rules for AI. Additional law can be layered on top for artificial agents, but AI should be subject to at least all the laws a human is subject to.

Building the law into AI

We suggest a research direction of integrating law into AI agents to help ensure adherence to legal standards. Researchers could train AI systems to learn methods for internalizing the spirit of the law. The training would use data generated by legal processes and tools of law, including methods of lawmaking, statutory interpretation, contract drafting, applications of legal standards and legal reasoning.

In addition to embedding law into AI agents, researchers can develop AI compliance agents – AIs designed to help an organization automatically follow the law. These specialized AI systems would provide third-party legal guardrails.

Researchers can develop better AI legal compliance by fine-tuning large language models with supervised learning on labeled legal task completions. Another approach is reinforcement learning, which uses feedback to tell an AI if it’s doing a good or bad job – in this case, attorneys interacting with language models. And legal experts could design prompting schemes – ways of interacting with a language model – to elicit better responses from language models that are more consistent with legal standards.

Law-abiding (artificial) business owners

If an LLC were operated by an AI, it would have to obey the law like any other LLC, and courts could order it to pay damages, or stop doing something by issuing an injunction. An AI tasked with operating the LLC and, among other things, maintaining proper business insurance would have an incentive to understand applicable laws and comply. Having minimum business liability insurance policies is a standard requirement that most businesses impose on one another to engage in commercial relationships.

The incentives to establish AI-operated LLCs are there. Fortunately, we believe it is possible and desirable to do the work to embed the law – what has until now been human law – into AI, and AI-powered automated compliance guardrails.

John Nay is the founder and CEO of Nomos AI, Inc. and a co-founder and the Chairman of Brooklyn Investment Group.

Daniel Gervais does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Scammers create spoof Blockworks site to drain crypto wallets

Phishing scammers have been spreading fake news of a $37 million dollar Uniswap exploit using a convincing fake Blockworks website.



Phishing scammers have been spreading fake news of a $37 million dollar Uniswap exploit using a convincing fake Blockworks website.

Phishing scammers have cloned the websites of crypto media outlet Blockworks and Ethereum blockchain scanner Etherscan to trick unsuspecting readers into interacting with a phishing site.

A cloned Blockworks site displays a fake "BREAKING" news report of a supposed multimillion-dollar “approvals exploit” on the decentralized exchange Uniswap and encourages users to a faked Etherscan website to rescind approvals.

The fake Blockworks website (left) shows a fake breaking news story of a Uniswap exploit compared to the legitimate website (right).

The fake Etherscan website, displaying a purported token and smart contract approval checker, instead contains a smart contract that would likely drain a crypto wallet when connected.

Related: 85% of crypto rug pulls in Q3 didn’t report audits: Hacken

The phishing website (left) compared to the legitimate Etherscan website (right).

An age check of the domains shows the fake Etherscan site — — was registered on Oct. 25, with the faked Blockworks site — registered a day later.

Magazine: Ethereum restaking — Blockchain innovation or dangerous house of cards?

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