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Where’s the Money Going? Watch Volume and Price Action

A driver who goes with the flow of traffic and adjusts to traffic conditions usually gets places in good time and safely. Similarly, a good trader who…

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A driver who goes with the flow of traffic and adjusts to traffic conditions usually gets places in good time and safely. Similarly, a good trader who trades in sync with price action is likelier to make better trades and preserve more capital.

The key: Recognize price movement and take advantage of the move. When you see a clear move in one group of stocks, identify the top performers and make your way into that lane. When the momentum slows, you may want to exit your position and join the next moving group. But that doesn't mean you should constantly move in and out of stocks; it pays to be patient and ensure the odds are in your favor before bailing or jumping in.

Identifying the Movers and Shakers

There are different ways to identify groups of stocks that are moving. Technical analysts can choose to identify trends, turning points, and/or investor sentiment using the appropriate indicators. In addition to focusing on a handful of indicators, it may also help to keep an eye on volume.

In his book Technical Analysis Explained, Martin Pring states that volume often moves ahead of price. So an increase or decrease in volume could be an advance warning of a potential price trend reversal. If you think about it, volume gives you an idea of whether traders are bullish or bearish. If price moves up on strong volume, it's generally an indication of bullish momentum. And when the volume starts falling, it could be a signal that the upward price movement is slowing down.

Combining volume with price movement can help identify developing trends and the end of a trend. Open up a long-term chart of your favorite stock and see how volume and trend move. The chart below looks at recent price movement in Microsoft (MSFT)'s stock price. Note the exponential rise in volume when price hit a high in the short-term move. After that, volume fell as the stock price traded sideways. If volume expands when price starts moving in a clear direction, it could indicate the strength of the next move.

CHART 1: VOLUME AND PRICE ACTION. Volume and price expand until it spikes at a short-term high. After that, volume drops as price moves sideways. Think of volume as a barometer for the next price move.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

You can do a similar volume and price analysis with different stocks by going back further in time. Better yet, analyze volume action in different groups of stocks, such as the S&P Sector ETFs. The CandleGlance tool on the StockCharts platform gives you a bird's eye view of the different sectors.


How to Access It

  • From the Member Tools on Your Dashboard or from the Charts & Tools tab.
  • Select S&P Sector ETFs from the Predefined Groups dropdown menu. You'll see charts of all 11 ETFs and a chart of the S&P 500 index ($SPX).
  • Select chart duration and indicator. There are different volume indicators you could use, such as Rate of Change (ROC), On-Balance Volume (OBV), Accumulation/Distribution, the Force Index, and so on. In the chart below, the OBV is added with an overlay of its 20-day simple moving average.

You can customize your CandleGlance charts and save it as a ChartStyle. That way your settings will automatically appear on the CandleGlance charts—major timesaver.


The recent regional bank crisis is an example of how investors started pulling out of the banking sector and moving their capital to other sectors. If you add a volume indicator such as OBV to the charts, some interesting observations surface.

CHART 2: CHARTS AT A GLANCE. The CandleGlance chart of the S&P Sector ETFs with a volume indicator of your choice (OBV was used here) helps to see where the rotation occurs.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

The OBV suggests that money is moving into the market, but only in some sectors. "The inflows are more concentrated on the large caps and specific sectors, and not the broad market," said Buff Dormeier, CMT, chief technical analyst at Kingsview Partners.

What's more interesting is how much money was flowing into the market. "In the week of March 13, the S&P 500's capital inflows were $90 billion, the highest inflows in nearly 10 years," added Dormeier. "Capital outflows totaled $36 billion and, if you take them together, it was the largest since March 2020, which was at the onset of the pandemic."

The following week saw a similar trend. "In the week of March 20, cap-weighted inflows surpassed outflows with $30.5 billion out to $50 billion flowing in," Dormeier continued.

Where Are the Inflows and Outflows? 

The CandleGlance view helps to see which sectors are experiencing the greatest outflows and which ones are experiencing significant inflows. Communication Services (XLC) and Technology (XLK) are seeing significant inflows, whereas Real Estate and Financials are seeing significant outflows. 

Generally, a falling interest rate environment helps growth stocks, and money is flowing into large-cap growth stocks and out of small- and mid-caps. Does that mean investors expect the Fed to stop raising rates soon? It's possible, but let's remember the other side of the coin. When money flows out of small- and mid-caps, it could mean that the underlying economy may not be stable. These are conflicting signals which means the market is still fickle.

Trading With the Flow

We're not out of the woods yet. Even though volume in the stock market is increasing and the stock market seems like it wants to go up, it could change anytime. So, create your own CandleGlance charts so you always have a bird's eye view of the market. When you see price action speeding up in one sector and slowing down in another, change lanes so you can keep up with price movement. Don't rush, be patient, and, more important, be disciplined. It'll get you where you want to go.



Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Metaverse investments: Opportunities and risks of the trillion-dollar VR market

What are the best metaverse projects that investors should keep on their radar? Cointelegraph Research Metaverse Ranking Awards the top projects

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What are the best metaverse projects that investors should keep on their radar? Cointelegraph Research Metaverse Ranking Awards the top projects

The metaverse continues to expand, with industry giants and upcoming players racing to seize a slice of the potentially trillion-dollar pie. Close to $2 billion was invested in blockchain-based metaverse deals in 2022, according to Cointelegraph Research’s VC database

A 2022 report by McKinsey estimated the metaverse industry to potentially generate up to $5 trillion in revenue by 2030, an estimate overtaken by Citi's forecast of $8 to $13 trillion. These estimations reflect significant growth from the global metaverse market of $65.5 billion recorded in 2022. To realize these optimistic forecasts, the metaverse industry would need to sustain an impressive 85% compound average growth rate.

VC metaverse funding in 2022. Source: Source: Cointelegraph Research.

Investors will never guess which metaverse won Cointelegraph’s 2023 Ranking of Metaverses. This blockchain-based metaverse has over $61 million in value locked in its smart contracts and over 8,000 monthly users. To learn more about the project that enables true ownership of in-game assets and has a deflationary token model, read the report now. 

Download the report on the Cointelegraph Research Terminal.

Stronger than ever

Yet, the metaverse landscape is not without its difficulties. Market cap losses have plagued industry leaders, with Meta, formerly known as Facebook, losing 77% of its market cap equivalent to $800 billion between late 2021 and 2022. As a result, Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, plans to eliminate 21,000 jobs in 2023.

Despite setbacks, industry titans like Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm are all developing their metaverse strategies. Apple's entry into the metaverse is highly anticipated with its AR/VR headset launch slated for June 2023. Similarly, gaming firms like Epic and Roblox utilized the pandemic lockdown to their advantage, successfully launching metaverse concerts that reached millions worldwide.

In 2022, mergers, acquisitions, and financing in the metaverse realm rose from $13 billion in 2021 to over $120 billion, bolstered by Microsoft's $69 billion acquisition of Activision. This deal had a 7.6x EV/Sales multiple and a 20.2x EV/EBITDA multiple. Although valuation multiples are expected to decrease in line with higher interest rates, investment activities remain robust.

Metaverse marketing efforts. Source: Cointelegraph Research.

Top blockchain metaverse projects are also attracting significant capital. Leading blockchain metaverses measured by market cap include The Sandbox ($1.02 billion), Decentraland ($905 million), and Axie Infinity ($830 million). Year to date (YTD) performance of The Sandbox is 44%. Decentraland’s YTD is 62%. Neither of them surpasses Bitcoin’s YTD retu of 68%.

For investors seeking exposure to the metaverse, ETFs like the Fidelity Metaverse ETF (FMET) and Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF (METV) offer viable options. However, the new Cointelegraph Research study reveals that a majority of token transactions in metaverse projects result from speculation rather than actual in-metaverse usage, a trend that calls for cautious investment.

The Cointelegraph Research team

Cointelegraph’s Research department comprises some of the best talents in the blockchain industry. The research team comprises subject matter experts from across the fields of finance, economics and technology to bring the premier source for industry reports and insightful analysis to the market. The team utilizes APIs from a variety of sources in order to provide accurate, useful information and analyses.

The opinions expressed in the article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.

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How a neighborhood-focused Baltimore initiative is employing patience, partnership, and resident leadership to drive long-term change

At the corner of North and Cecil Avenues in Central Baltimore sits the newly constructed home of a community-based organization, Roberta’s House, which…

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By Darius Graham

At the corner of North and Cecil Avenues in Central Baltimore sits the newly constructed home of a community-based organization, Roberta’s House, which provides mental health and grief counseling services to residents who may not otherwise get these much-needed services. The building represents a transformational investment designed to bring new life to a vacant block that was previously occupied by rowhomes.

When construction on Roberta’s House broke ground in 2018, the two sides of Cecil Avenue at this corner were divided, both physically and symbolically. The juxtaposition of abandoned rowhomes on one side and hope rising from the ground on the other side, sparked a thought among staff at Baltimore’s Weinberg Foundation: What if this building were to be the start of a ripple of redevelopment and opportunity in the neighborhood?

And so, the revitalization of this one building on this one corner would soon become part of something bigger—a philanthropic-funded effort to improve the health and life trajectory of Central Baltimore residents. This piece tells the story of lessons from the Greenmount Life, Opportunity, and Wellness (GLOW) Initiative, a new effort to concentrate financial and social investment in select neighborhoods that have long experienced underinvestment.

Developing a hyper-local strategy rooted in strength

Created in 1990, The Harry and Jeanette Weinberg Foundation had been funding Baltimore-based nonprofits for 30 years when, beginning in 2018 and following many conversations with stakeholders, the foundation adopted a hyperlocal, place-based strategy (while continuing to provide grants across the Baltimore region). The premise was that by focusing some of the foundation’s financial and social capital in a compact geographic area, it could drive positive outcomes in an even more targeted way. Out of this decision came GLOW.

We knew that one of the most important factors in getting GLOW off the ground was choosing the right area on which to focus our efforts. Several factors led to our selection of four Central Baltimore neighborhoods, Midway, Barclay, Harwood, and Greenmount West, including:

  • Need: Many residents of our target neighborhoods had limited economic opportunity and poor health. Midway, for example, had the highest unemployment rate of any neighborhood in the city, the sixth lowest life expectancy, and one of the city’s highest concentrations of children living in poverty.
  • Concurrent investment: While Baltimore City, despite decades of disinvestment, had designated the area as one of its “Impact Investment Areas,” other major developments, including a large nonprofit makerspace, were already underway or forthcoming in the area. Meanwhile, a coalition of funders had also recently launched the Central Baltimore Future Fund to catalyze commercial redevelopment. We recognized that GLOW would be more successful if it aligned with those efforts.
  • Partners: The area also is home to four public schools and many nonprofits, including Central Baltimore Partnership (CBP), a nonprofit collaborative of over 100 organizations dedicated to the revitalization of Central Baltimore neighborhoods. These partners already had meaningful relationships and capacity that if brought together could help achieve more positive outcomes for the neighborhoods around GLOW’s goals.

With all of this in mind, Weinberg Foundation saw an opportunity to improve Central Baltimore’s economic and public health outcomes by working with CBP to physically transform the four neighborhoods, while placing special emphasis on health and educational outcomes for their residents. In this way, the Foundation was able to tap into existing organizational infrastructure—essentially building from strength instead of building from scratch.

Strong and glowing: From an idea to implementation

The central purpose of GLOW is to mobilize and coordinate an array of organizations to improve the health and life trajectory of Central Baltimore residents by improving access to, and utilization of, primary health care, nutritious food, and enriching educational or career opportunities for youth. While the long-term goal is to make an impact on key indicators like unemployment and life expectancy, we know that those will take years. In the interim, we are squarely focused on supporting the initiative as a platform for aligning multiple organizations, sourcing and advancing residents’ goals and desire, lifting up residents as leaders, and attracting additional resources to the neighborhood.

We’ve had some early wins. For example, GLOW has established a network of more than 30 service providers, including a national organization it recruited to the neighborhood, which will connect 125 families with housing, employment, financial, and supportive services that help increase economic mobility. Other wins include expanding paid summer youth opportunities in the neighborhood by partnering with Banner Neighborhoods to operate a YouthWorks site, and catalyzing the development of several key capital projects including an outdoor education and community health hub along with a teaching kitchen. Along the way, we’ve also learned a lot of lessons relevant for any equity-focused place-based initiative, including:

  1. The lead organization for a place-based initiative—CBP in the case of GLOW—must be adept at navigating a range of efforts and stakeholders. Specifically, it must be capable of both strategic and tactical efforts and have trust and relationships with a range of stakeholders, including funders, government leaders, and residents. The organization must focus on strategy at all levels and not get bogged down in the day-to-day of providing services and activities in the neighborhood.
  2. Genuine partnership means more than ‘partners on paper’. Partnership, like collaboration, is a term that gets used a lot and can mean different things to different people. With GLOW, we have found that true partnership requires more than regular meetings or information sharing. It demands building trusting relationships rooted in an “if you win, I win” mentality instead of in the scarcity mindset that often pervades the nonprofit sector, especially when it comes to working with foundations. It means jointly applying for funding, being clear about expectations and roles, and navigating conflict.
  3. Community leadership is as important as community engagement. For place-based initiatives like GLOW, it’s critical that residents not just be engaged in typical ways like surveys or public meetings. Instead, residents should have genuine leadership and decision-making authority— meaning equal or greater representation on the committee overseeing the initiative, with compensation for their time and insights.
  4. Planning takes time and resources. Place-based initiatives require coordinating across city agencies, nonprofit organizations, and resident leaders—as well as including visible wins in early months to build trust and buy-in with residents and partners. This took us two years and required flexibility as the COVID-19 pandemic extended timelines and shifted our attention. Even under normal circumstances planning requires significant staff time to thoughtfully engage residents and stakeholders in small group and one-on-one conversations.
  5. Patience is essential. Place-based initiatives require a long-term commitment due to the nature of developing the infrastructure across sectors to create systemic, long-term change. Phases include understanding the challenges and opportunities in the community, building the infrastructure across multiple partners, and capacity building for anchor institutions—all before achieving neighborhood-level outcomes.

With these lessons in mind, we are continuing to invest in and build GLOW so it can serve as a platform for convening resident and stakeholders to drive change in Central Baltimore for many years to come. By focusing on strategy, building true partnerships, centering residents as leaders, investing in planning, and operating with a sense of flexibility and patience, we believe other funders and community-based organizations can build similar initiatives to help transform underinvested neighborhoods.

Photo credit: Banner Neighborhoods, Inc.

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Insilico Medicine Founder and CEO Alex Zhavoronkov, PhD presents at Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference

Alex Zhavoronkov, PhD, founder and CEO of Insilico Medicine (“Insilico”), a generative artificial intelligence (AI)-driven drug discovery company,…

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Alex Zhavoronkov, PhD, founder and CEO of Insilico Medicine (“Insilico”), a generative artificial intelligence (AI)-driven drug discovery company, will present on the latest company milestones at the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference on June 8, 4:30pm ET at the Marriott Marquis in New York City. The conference brings together hundreds of public and private healthcare companies and thousands of executives, as well as institutional investors, private equity investors, and VCs discussing trends and investment opportunities in healthcare in the US.

Credit: Insilico Medicine

Alex Zhavoronkov, PhD, founder and CEO of Insilico Medicine (“Insilico”), a generative artificial intelligence (AI)-driven drug discovery company, will present on the latest company milestones at the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference on June 8, 4:30pm ET at the Marriott Marquis in New York City. The conference brings together hundreds of public and private healthcare companies and thousands of executives, as well as institutional investors, private equity investors, and VCs discussing trends and investment opportunities in healthcare in the US.

Zhavoronkov will share updates on Insilico’s rapidly progressing pipeline of novel therapeutics available for partnering and licensing, and showcase its new AI-driven fully robotic target discovery and validation platform, and end-to-end drug discovery platform, Pharma.AI, which includes target identification (PandaOmics), drug design (Chemistry42), and clinical trial outcome prediction (InClinico). The platform has produced three drugs that have reached clinical trials. Insilico’s lead drug for the devastating chronic lung disease idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), the first AI-discovered and AI-designed drug to advance to clinical trials, will soon be entering Phase 2 trials with patients. Insilico’s generative AI-designed drug for COVID-19 and related variants has been approved for clinical trials and has a number of design advantages over existing COVID-19 drugs. Most recently, the company announced that its USP1 synthetic lethality inhibitor received FDA IND approval for the treatment of solid tumors. 

There are 31 drugs in Insilico’s pipeline available for partnering and licensing for indications including cancer, fibrosis, and central nervous system diseases, and the Company has nominated 12 preclinical candidates in the past two years, most recently a potentially best-in-class preclinical candidate targeting ENPP1 for cancer immunotherapy and the potential treatment of Hypophosphatasia (HPP).

Insilico has partnered with leading pharma companies, including Fosun Pharma and Sanofi, to accelerate their programs. The Company has raised over $400m in funding to date from notable biotech and tech investors.

 

About Insilico Medicine

Insilico Medicine, a clinical-stage end-to-end artificial intelligence (AI)-driven drug discovery company, connects biology, chemistry, and clinical trials analysis using next-generation AI systems. The company has developed AI platforms that utilize deep generative models, reinforcement learning, transformers, and other modern machine learning techniques to discover novel targets and design novel molecular structures with desired properties. Insilico Medicine is delivering breakthrough solutions to discover and develop innovative drugs for cancer, fibrosis, immunity, central nervous system (CNS) diseases, and aging-related diseases.

For more information, visit www.insilico.com

 


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