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When Will Silver Go Up?

Many investors are asking themselves, “When will silver go up?” The market conditions are ripe for another run up in the silver price.
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It’s no secret that the silver market can be incredibly volatile. From June 2020 to June 2021 alone, the white metal has seen price levels ranging from about US$17 per ounce to US$29.50.

Many investors are confused by the precious metal’s movement. After all, silver is a safe haven asset that generally fares well in times of turmoil, and the past year has been packed with tense political events — not to mention the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting global economic impact.

Unfortunately, answering the question, “When will silver go up?” is tricky. Even seasoned analysts can’t tell the future, and it’s difficult to find a consensus on the topic of when it will enter a bull market.

 

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Nevertheless, it’s definitely possible to track down different opinions on the topic. Market participants interested in investing in silver would do well to keep these ideas top of mind as they try to determine where the price may move in the future.

When will silver go up?: Silver year-on-year

To approach the question, “When will silver go up?” it’s useful to look at its past performance.

As mentioned, the silver price has had ups and downs over the past year, including shooting up from the US$17 level to over US$28 in the summer of 2020, followed by a drop down to the US$22 mark by late September. In early February 2021, the silver price broke to a high of US$29.50 per ounce; however, by the end of March the metal had slid back down to around US$24.

It’s helpful to look at gold price drivers when trying to understand silver’s price action. Silver is of course the more changeable of the two precious metals, but it often trades in relative tandem with gold bullion.

In fact, silver’s big ride from US$17 to over US$28 in the summer of 2020 coincided with gold reaching its highest price in history — US$2,067.15 per ounce on August 7, 2020.

For gold, and by extension, silver, a key price driver lately hasn’t been so much supply and demand, but uncertainty. As noted, the past year has been filled with major geopolitical events, most notably the coronavirus pandemic, but also continued tension between the US and other countries such as China and Iran. Those and other developments have been major sources of concern for investors in the precious metals market.

Precious metals investors have also been closely following the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate plans. Rate hikes are generally negative for physical silver and gold prices — that’s because when rates are higher it is more profitable to invest in products that can accrue interest.

Market participants who are looking to invest in silver and wondering, “When will silver go up?” will want to watch what central banks do. In July 2019, the Fed began cutting interest rates for the first time since 2008, dropping interest rates by a quarter point to a range of 2 to 2.25 percent. Since then, the Fed has slashed interest rates to zero. As of its April 2021 meeting, the Fed had no plans to hike interest rates any time soon, and in fact some economists at the central bank are arguing for sub-zero interest rates.

 

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When will silver go up?: Silver supply and silver demand

With the silver price enjoying some momentum, investors are keen to know what may come next. They continue to ask, “When will silver go up?” and are on the lookout for catalysts that may drive it higher.

Moving forward, geopolitical events, the global socioeconomic impact of the coronavirus and future Fed rate changes will be key factors to watch. As the US and China continue to be embroiled in longstanding trade tensions and gold continues to climb, silver may be in for a stellar second half of 2021.

But what about silver supply or silver demand? Interestingly, the latest World Silver Survey, published by the Silver Institute and Metals Focus, indicates that in 2020 the silver market experienced a 5.9 percent decrease in mine production, contributing to an overall global silver supply decline of 4 percent. No doubt, the slide in production was in large part due to the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on operations.

In 2021, mine production is expected to increase by 8.2 percent to 848.5 million ounces, while overall global silver supply is expected to also increase by 8 percent to 1.056 billion ounces. The growth in silver mine production is expected to continue over the medium term. In the longer term (four to five years), investment in further silver exploration and development will be needed to sustain mine production.

On the silver demand side, 2020 investor demand for silver bars and coins was up 8 percent year-on-year, attributed to what the World Silver Survey described as “a growing appetite for safe haven assets,” and initially “the strength of the gold price.” Holdings in exchange-traded products experienced another record year of demand, up 298 percent to 331.1 million ounces.

Nevertheless, overall silver demand was down by 10 percent in 2020, mainly due to the economic impact of COVID-19. While industrial demand suffered a disappointing 5 percent drop, the steepest falls in demand came from photography (16 percent), jewelry (26 percent) and silverware (48 percent). The one shining light was the 2 percent increase in demand from the photovoltaic industry.

For 2021, further growth in physical silver investment is expected, such as silver bullion coins and silver bars. This silver market segment should rise for a fourth year, jumping 26 percent to 252.8 million ounces — that would be the highest level since 2015. The year should also bring a recovery in industrial demand (forecast at 8 percent), and photography (4 percent), while the jewelry and silverware segments are expected to make a roaring comeback at 24 percent and 32 percent, respectively.

 

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When will silver go up?: Silver in the future

While the silver price outlook is impacted by supply and demand, it is also heavily influenced by investors who buy precious metals as safe haven assets during times of economic or political uncertainty. The World Silver Survey predicts the silver price will hit US$32 by the end of 2021.

CPM Group managing partner Jeffrey Christian says his firm “wouldn’t be surprised to see the price go back up and test US$30 or US$32 over the next several months.”

But will silver surpass its record high of nearly US$50 per ounce? Christian thinks the market fundamentals are supportive for silver to climb back to that historical level. “At some point, we think the price of silver will rise and rise sharp,” he said. “That increase we expect to coincide with the next financial and economic crisis.”

Of course, there’s also the question of manipulation — experts such as Ed Steer of Gold and Silver Digest and GATA believe that the silver price is controlled by entities like JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and will not rise significantly until these players allow it to do so.

However, these factors don’t mean that the silver price will never again reach its highest price of nearly US$50. In fact, Chris Marcus, founder of Arcadia Economics, who is the author of the book “The Big Silver Short,” has described the white metal as “an amplified version of gold,” and said he’s surprised to see the white metal trading where it is.

Watch the full interview with Marcus and Brien Lundin above.

“I look at what happened in 2011, that’s what the book gets into,” said Marcus in an interview with the Investing News Network. “Either the price came down because they sold a lot of paper that they can’t back up, or maybe there’s another explanation. But if that is correct, to me US$50 seems like a floor whenever a free market comes back.”

If the metal continues rise this year, reaching its highest level will become more plausible.

For investors, a key point to remember is that the resource space operates cyclically — while a commodity like silver can experience price rises and falls, ultimately what goes up must come down, and vice versa. The advice to “buy low and sell high” is repeated often for a reason, and though it’s nigh impossible to predict market bottoms, at today’s price, now may certainly be a good time to flex your purchasing power and buy silver.

This is an updated version of an article first published by the Investing News Network in 2015.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

 

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Economics

Extra Crunch roundup: TC Mobility recaps, Nubank EC-1, farewell to browser cookies

What, exactly, are investors looking for?

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What, exactly, are investors looking for?

Early-stage founders, usually first-timers, often tie themselves in knots as they try to project the qualities they hope investors are seeking. In reality, few entrepreneurs have the acting skills required to convince someone that they’re patient, dedicated or hard working.

Johan Brenner, general partner at Creandum, was an early backer of Klarna, Spotify and several other European startups. Over the last two decades, he’s identified five key traits shared by people who create billion-dollar companies.


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“A true unicorn founder doesn’t need to have all of those capabilities on day one,” says Brenner, “but they should already be thinking big while executing small and demonstrating that they understand how to scale a company.”

Drawing from observations gleaned from working with founders like Spotify’s Daniel Ek, Sebastian Siemiatkowski from Klarna, and iZettle’s Jacob de Geer and Magnus Nilsson, Brenner explains where “VC FOMO” comes from and how it drives deal-making.

We’re running a series of posts that recap conversations from last week’s virtual TC Mobility conference, including an interview with Refraction AI’s Matthew Johnson, a look at how autonomous delivery startups are navigating the regulatory and competitive landscape, and much more. There are many more recaps to come; click here to find them all.

Thanks very much for reading Extra Crunch!

Walter Thompson
Senior Editor, TechCrunch
@yourprotagonist

How contrarian hires and a pitch deck started Nubank’s $30 billion fintech empire

Image Credits: Nigel Sussman

Founded in 2013 and based in São Paulo, Brazil, Nubank serves more than 34 million customers, making it Latin America’s largest neobank.

Reporter Marcella McCarthy spoke to CEO David Velez to learn about his efforts to connect with consumers and overcome entrenched opposition from established players who were friendly with regulators.

In the first of a series of stories for Nubank’s EC-1, she interviewed Velez about his early fundraising efforts. For a balanced perspective, she also spoke to early Nubank investors at Sequoia and Kaszek Ventures, Latin America’s largest venture fund, to find out why they funded the startup while it was still pre-product.

“There are people you come across in life that within the first hour of meeting with them, you know you want to work with them,” said Doug Leone, a global managing partner at Sequoia who’d recruited Velez after he graduated from grad school at Stanford.

Marcella also interviewed members of Nubank’s founding team to better understand why they decided to take a chance on a startup that faced such long odds of success.

“I left banking to make a fifth of my salary, and back then, about $5,000 in equity,” said Vitor Olivier, Nubank’s VP of operations and platforms.

“Financially, it didn’t really make sense, so I really had to believe that it was really going to work, and that it would be big.”

Despite flat growth, ride-hailing colossus Didi’s US IPO could reach $70B

Image Credits: Didi

In his last dispatch before a week’s vacation, Alex Wilhelm waded through the numbers in Didi’s SEC filing. The big takeaways?

“While Didi managed an impressive GTV recovery in China, its aggregate numbers are flatter, and recent quarterly trends are not incredibly attractive,” he writes.

However, “Didi is not as unprofitable as we might have anticipated. That’s a nice surprise. But the company’s regular business has never made money, and it’s losing more lately than historically, which is also pretty rough.”

What’s driving the rise of robotaxis in China with AutoX, Momenta and WeRide

AutoX, Momenta and WeRide took the stage at TC Sessions: Mobility 2021 to discuss the state of robotaxi startups in China and their relationships with local governments in the country.

They also talked about overseas expansion — a common trajectory for China’s top autonomous vehicle startups — and shed light on the challenges and opportunities for foreign AV companies eyeing the massive Chinese market.

The air taxi market prepares to take flight

Image Credits: Bryce Durbin

“As in any disruptive industry, the forecast may be cloudier than the rosy picture painted by passionate founders and investors,” Aria Alamalhodaei writes. “A quick peek at comments and posts on LinkedIn reveals squabbles among industry insiders and analysts about when this emerging technology will truly take off and which companies will come out ahead.”

But while some electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) companies have no revenue yet to speak of — and may not for the foreseeable future — valuations are skyrocketing.

“Electric air mobility is gaining elevation,” she writes. “But there’s going to be some turbulence ahead.”

The demise of browser cookies could create a Golden Age of digital marketing

Though some may say the doomsday clock is ticking toward catastrophe for digital marketing, Apple’s iOS 14.5 update, which does away with automatic opt-ins for data collection, and Google’s plan to phase out third-party cookies do not signal a death knell for digital advertisers.

“With a few changes to short-term strategy — and a longer-term plan that takes into account the fact that people are awakening to the value of their online data — advertisers can form a new type of relationship with consumers,” Permission.io CTO Hunter Jensen writes in a guest column. “It can be built upon trust and open exchange of value.”

If offered the right incentives, Jensen predicts, “consumers will happily consent to data collection because advertisers will be offering them something they value in return.”

How autonomous delivery startups are navigating policy, partnerships and post-pandemic operations

Nuro second gen R2 delivery vehicle

Image Credits: Nuro

We kicked off this year’s TC Sessions: Mobility with a talk featuring three leading players in the field of autonomous delivery. Gatik co-founder and chief engineer Apeksha Kumavat, Nuro head of operations Amy Jones Satrom, and Starship Technologies co-founder and CTO Ahti Heinla joined us to discuss their companies’ unique approaches to the category.

The trio discussed government regulation on autonomous driving, partnerships with big corporations like Walmart and Domino’s, and the ongoing impact the pandemic has had on interest in the space.

Waabi’s Raquel Urtasun explains why it was the right time to launch an AV technology startup

Image Credits: Waabi via Natalia Dola

Raquel Urtasun, the former chief scientist at Uber ATG, is the founder and CEO of Waabi, an autonomous vehicle startup that came out of stealth mode last week. The Toronto-based company, which will focus on trucking, raised an impressive $83.5 million in a Series A round led by Khosla Ventures.

Urtasun joined Mobility 2021 to talk about her new venture, the challenges facing the self-driving vehicle industry and how her approach to AI can be used to advance the commercialization of AVs.

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Spread & Containment

How to create effective, engaged workplace teams after the COVID-19 pandemic

Post-pandemic, the world of work will probably never be the same again. And that’s probably a good thing. We now have an opportunity to make it better.

For workplace teams returning to the office post-pandemic, it will still be important to protect the benefits of remote work: uninterrupted time for strategically important projects, and respect for personal preferences. (Pixabay)

Well into the pandemic’s second year, we are beginning to see light on the horizon. We’re not out of the woods here in Canada. As some areas of the country continue to struggle to contain the virus, others are optimistic due to lowering case counts thanks to restrictions and lockdown measures.

Ontario — the country’s largest province by population — is now in the first step of its reopening, and officials have said the majority of those who want to receive a vaccine could be fully immunized by the end of the summer.

The rolling lockdowns and public health restrictions of the pandemic response meant a massive shift to remote and virtual work for many workplaces. As we look towards and plan for the post-pandemic future, businesses and organizations need to thoughtfully consider what the future of work looks like for them.

They will need to reflect on their operations pre-pandemic, consider what they learned from the disruption of the crisis, and ask themselves: How can we build back better?

Structure shift

Recent decades have seen a shift in the structure of businesses and organizations, away from hierarchical models in favour of cross-functional and, at times, self-managing networks of teams. In fact, a 2016 survey found the majority of large corporations rely on interdisciplinary and cross-functional teams. In 2019, 31 per cent of respondents said that most or almost all work is performed in teams.

For many of these organizations, the pandemic saw these teams transition from in-person work to remote interactions via video-conferencing services like Zoom, Microsoft Teams and Skype.

Many appreciated the comfort and autonomy inherent in working from home, but the erosion of work-life balance and social interaction has caused challenges.

As we come out of the pandemic, workplace teams will need an environment that retains the experience of autonomy while also providing a sense of belonging. Employees should be free to decide where they want to work and when they want to work whenever possible. But we must also address the negative impact of isolation — loneliness, fatigue or even depression, all of which have been frequently reported during the pandemic.

Five women at a desk have a conversation.
Effective workplace teams will be critical to building back better. (Piqsels)

Research on workplace teams finds that autonomy can in fact co-exist with a sense of belonging and cohesion. For this to be achieved, organizations need to find a balance, and need to organize teams according to these structural considerations:

• Teams have a strong leader, or they can feature shared leadership.

• Teams have clearly defined task interdependencies and interfaces among team members, or team members can perform their work largely in isolation.

• Teams have the same goals and rewards for all members, or they can offer individualized goals and rewards.

• Teams communicate virtually, or they can communicate so face-to-face.

• Teams have a shared history and aspirations, or they operate for a limited time, after which they disband.

A strong leader, alongside clearly defined task interdependencies, focuses on the team as a whole, whereas virtual teamwork and individual rewards emphasize the individual team member.

Combining features of teamwork that promote autonomy with other features that foster cohesiveness and a sense of belonging is likely the best path forward.

Emphasize shared goals

As long as employees continue to operate in a virtual setting, it’s important for leaders to define shared goals and rewards. Teams must share a vision of the future that complements the larger degree of autonomy they’ve experienced through virtual teamwork.

Focusing on elements of teamwork that bring team members closer together should not be left to chance. As some organizations learned during the pandemic, scheduling social hours can replace the spontaneous conversations at the water cooler. A book club can replace the informal learning over a lunch chat. A fireside Zoom chat on company values and goals can replace an in-person town hall.

But post-pandemic, few organizations will maintain an all-virtual presence. Many will move towards a hybrid model. For those teams returning to the office, it will still be important to protect the benefits of remote work: uninterrupted time for strategically important projects, and respect for personal preferences.

The pandemic has also almost eliminated a troublesome feature of organizational life: presenteeism, or showing up to work when sick. We must not go backwards in this regard. Workers must protect themselves and their team members from the consequences of illness.

Post-pandemic, the world of work will probably never be the same again. And that’s probably a good thing. We now have an opportunity to make it better.

Matthias Spitzmuller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Economics

EU Bars 10 Megabanks From Recovery Bond Sale Over Previous Market Manipulation

EU Bars 10 Megabanks From Recovery Bond Sale Over Previous Market Manipulation

In an unexpected move, the European Union has decided to shut out some of the world’s biggest banks from sales of bonds for the EU’s COVID recovery fund, expected.

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EU Bars 10 Megabanks From Recovery Bond Sale Over Previous Market Manipulation

In an unexpected move, the European Union has decided to shut out some of the world's biggest banks from sales of bonds for the EU's COVID recovery fund, expected to be the largest supranational bond offering yet.

According to the FT, the EU excluded 10 banks - including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Barclays - from running bond sales as part of its €800 billion ($968.5 billion) recovery fund due to what the FT described as "historic breaches of antitrust rules". Specifically, the EU is seeking to punish the banks for their roles in the series of market-rigging scandals (which infamously started with rigging of the Libor before investigators moved on to currency and fixed income markets) that broke early in the last decade. The move is especially bold because many of the banks being shut out of the deal are some of the world's biggest players in international debt markets.

In other words, simply by shutting them out of this massive deal, the EU could shake up the league tables as the banks that win its business will undoubtedly be handsomely rewarded for their work. The borrowing spree - Brussels' biggest-ever - will begin Tuesday with the sale of a new 10-year eurobond to fund the NextGenerationEU pandemic program. 7 of the 10 banks excluded are among the biggest sellers' of European debt. Before they will be allowed to sell the bonds, the EU wants them to demonstrate that they have "taken remedial measures" to prevent this from happening again.

In other words, Brussels is serious about preventing banks from stuffing their pockets with public money.

Banks found to have breached EU competition rules “will not be invited to tender for individual syndicated transactions”, said a spokesman for the European Commission, which handles debt issuance on behalf of the EU. “The Commission implements a strict approach to ensuring that the entities with whom it works are fit to be a counterparty of the EU."

Banks found guilty of antitrust breaches will be required to show they have taken “remedial measures” to prevent them happening again before they will be allowed to bid for syndications, the spokesman added.

Bank of America, Natixis, Nomura, NatWest and UniCredit have been prevented from taking part due to a Commission antitrust ruling last month that they participated in a bond trading cartel during the eurozone debt crisis a decade ago.

Citigroup, JPMorgan and Barclays — in addition to NatWest — have also been barred due to a finding two years ago that they were involved in manipulating currency markets between 2007 and 2013, people familiar with the matter said. Deutsche Bank and Crédit Agricole are also excluded due to an April ruling that they were involved in a different bond trading cartel, the people said. All the banks declined to comment.

Despite this, Reuters reported earlier (citing a senior banker in charge of the deal) that the EU's first offering of €20 billion ($24.3 billion) in bonds was heavily oversubscribed. The popularity isn't that surprising, considering that Triple-A rated debt in the region can be hard to come by (since the ECB owns much of the market). And the EU bonds feature a slight yield premium to German bunds. Investors placed upwards of €140 billion in orders for the €20 billion of debt, according to bankers who spoke to Reuters.

The new EU bond, due July 4 2031, will price 2 basis points below the mid-swap rate, according to the lead manager. That is equivalent to a yield of around 0.06%, according to Reuters calculations, down from around one basis point over the mid-swap level when the sale started on Monday.

Since October, the EU has already issued 90 billion euros to help finance its unemployment support program SURE.

The EU is managing these bond sales like a national debt offering, which is appropriate since they will likely transform the bloc into the world’s biggest supranational debt issuer.

All ten banks are among the 39 approved "primary dealers" which have a responsibility to bid for bonds during government auctions. One anonymous source told the FT that the EU's decision to bar the top dealers could create unnecessary complications for the sales. "There’s a delicate equilibrium in the relationship between issuers and primary dealers, and this risks upsetting that,”" said a senior banker at one of the lenders barred from syndicated deals. "These issues they are bringing up are from a long time ago, and they have been settled."

The banks working on Tuesday’s inaugural recovery fund bond are BNP Paribas, DZ Bank, HSBC, Intesa Sanpaolo, Morgan Stanley, Danske Bank and Santander.

The EU is expected to sell two more syndicated bonds by the end of July.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/15/2021 - 09:49

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