What Rising Interest Rates Really Mean
The rise in Treasury yields has accelerated, and the Fed is using essentially every opportunity to tell the public that interest rates are going to rise…

The rise in Treasury yields has accelerated, and the Fed is using essentially every opportunity to tell the public that interest rates are going to rise even more in the coming months.
So, as we all embark on this potentially steep rise in rates, I wanted to take a minute to see what effect rising rates have had on the “real economy,” because one of the biggest risks to the market right now is an economic slowdown — and understanding when rates reach a level where that might occur is very important.
But before we dig into the details here, I want to tell you that today’s issue is an excerpt from my daily market briefing publication, “Eagle Eye Opener.”
The “Eagle Eye Opener” is a collaboration between myself and my “secret market insider,” a man who delivers institutional research to some of the biggest names in the professional investing industry, but who also shares with me some of his insights — which I share with you each morning in the “Eagle Eye Opener.”
The following is our analysis on what rising interest rates really mean…
To see what effect rising interest rates have on the economy, we looked at rates of several important consumer loans: 30-year mortgages, 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), 60-month auto loans, HELOCs (home equity lines of credit) and credit card debt.
And the conclusion for all these loans was clear: Rates aren’t yet at levels that we think will restrict growth (and in some cases they are still far from levels that would restrict growth).
With the exception of the 30-year mortgage (which arguably is the most important of these consumer loans), none of the other major consumer loans are meaningfully above levels seen in January 2021, when economic growth and inflation were both more subdued.
5/1 ARMs, HELOC rates, car loans and credit card rates are all essentially at the same place they were in January 2021, and in all these cases they are below levels in January 2020 (pre-pandemic), a time when consumer balance sheets weren’t as strong as they are right now.
Now, mortgage rates have risen, and they are above pre-pandemic levels. But they are still well below the January 2019 levels, and that’s notable because early to mid-2019 was the last time we saw a meaningful loss of economic momentum, which prompted the Fed to halt balance sheet reduction and rate hikes in mid-2019.
The bottom line here is while Treasury yields have risen, causing mortgage rates to accelerate, the majority of other important consumer loan rates have not risen substantially.
So, what does this mean for financial markets?
We and others have said consistently that Fed rate hikes eventually choke off economic growth, but how many hikes and how long it takes is a function of 1) How low rates are at the start and 2) How strong growth is when rates begin to rise.
Right now, rate “lift off” is starting very low and economic growth remains very strong, and this analysis of consumer loans reinforces this point: It’s going to take a while for the Fed to choke off the economic recovery, even if they raise rates 50 basis points at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May.
Bottom line, interest rates are rising, and they will continue to become a stronger and stronger headwind on the economy and the markets. However, they aren’t near levels yet that would imply economic growth is stalling. That’s why, despite many risks facing markets, we’re sticking with equity allocations — because we could still have a year (or more) of economic expansion left (although that might be too optimistic, but we’ll be watching and, of course, let you know if something changes).
For now, the risk of stagflation (meaning high inflation and stagnant economic growth) remains a future problem, not an imminent one.
Once again, for more insights from my daily market briefing, Eagle Eye Opener, I invite you to check it out today.
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Injustice and wrong thinking thrive when good, rational people fail to challenge them. So, if you have something to say about something important, just say it. Because if you remain silent, you help perpetuate untruth, and the last thing the world needs is more untruth.
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economic recovery economic growth economic expansion pandemic fomc open market committee fed mortgage rates recovery interest ratesUncategorized
New Home Sales increase to 759,000 Annual Rate in September
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 759 thousand.
The previous three months were revised down slightly, combined.
Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2023 were at a seas…

Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 759,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.3 percent above the revised August rate of 676,000 and is 33.9 percent above the September 2022 estimate of 567,000. emphasis added


"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 435,000. This represents a supply of 6.9 months at the current sales rate."Sales were well above expectations of 679 thousand SAAR, and sales for the three previous months were only revised down slightly, combined. I'll have more later today. home sales
Uncategorized
Biogen reports positive signs from early study of tau-lowering drug
An experimental genetic medicine designed to short-circuit the production of the Alzheimer’s-linked protein tau showed signs of slowing cognitive decline…

An experimental genetic medicine designed to short-circuit the production of the Alzheimer’s-linked protein tau showed signs of slowing cognitive decline in a small study from Biogen.
The company has previously demonstrated that the drug, an antisense oligonucleotide dubbed BIIB080, reduced levels of tau in the brain. The new results, presented Wednesday morning at the Clinical Trials on Alzheimer’s Disease conference in Boston, suggest that the 16 people who got a high dose of the drug in the 46-person study progressed more slowly than otherwise expected after two years.
“These are early data,” Priya Singhal, Biogen’s head of development, told Endpoints News in an interview ahead of the presentation. “But we believe the signal is really important. And despite the limitations, we believe it’s real.”
The results are encouraging enough to spur Biogen to go all in on a large Phase II study that will enroll over 700 people, testing three doses of the drug, which is injected directly into the spinal fluid every three or six months. “It should give us a very good read,” Singhal said.
Tau builds up in the brain and damages neurons after the more famous amyloid protein accumulates. Biogen has previously tried to target tau in a Phase II study of its antibody gosuranemab. But unlike BIIB080, the antibody failed to lower tau levels, as measured by brain scans. It also didn’t slow cognitive decline.
Biogen’s head of neurodegenerative diseases research, Dominic Walsh, told Endpoints that the new drug is different because it “cuts tau off at its source” by blocking its mRNA code and preventing it from being made. Antibodies, in contrast, can only remove tau that already exists and may struggle to reach the molecule inside brain cells.
Tau takes many forms and shapes, and there’s much debate about which ones are the most toxic and, thus, most important to remove. While antibody drugs are designed for certain kinds of tau, an antisense drug is agnostic, Walsh said. “You take all the guesswork out of it,” he added. “It turns down all of tau production.”
The 16 people who got a high dose of BIIB080 during the long-term extension of the study trended toward having slower declines on three tests of cognitive and functional decline — the CDR-SB, the MMSE and the FAQ — compared to data from a natural history cohort and from Biogen’s gosuranemab study.
“We saw a movement that favored the drug arms across all these three domains, and that is unusual to see,” Singhal said.
That convergence of those clinical signals with the reduction of tau on brain scans “is the thing that really makes this exciting,” Walsh said.
testing clinical trials genetic antibodiesUncategorized
5,050 Bitcoin for $5 in 2009: Helsinki’s claim to crypto fame
Helsinki played host to the first Bitcoin for fiat transaction in 2009 — 5050 Bitcoin for $5 — 6 months before Pizza Day. Crypto City Guide.
…

Helsinki played host to the first Bitcoin for fiat transaction in 2009 — 5050 Bitcoin for $5 — 6 months before Pizza Day. Crypto City Guide.
This Crypto City guide looks at Finlands crypto culture: The most notable projects and people, its financial infrastructure, which retailers accept crypto, and where you can find blockchain education courses.
City: Helsinki
Country: Finland
Population: 1.55 million
Established: 1550
Languages: Finnish and Swedish, with English widely spoken
Jump to: Crypto culture, Where to spend crypto in Helsinki, Crypto projects and companies, Local crypto controversies, Crypto education and community, Notable crypto figures from Helsinki
Situated on the Gulf of Finland, Helsinki is the capital of Finland and is arguably the worlds most northern metropolis, with 1.5 million people 30% of the countrys population calling the metro area home. Its inhabitants spend winter in a cold, still darkness but enjoy 11:00 pm sunsets in summertime.

Major population centers are nearby, with both Tampere and Turku reachable in two hours via road or rail. There are regular ferry services across the Baltic including to Estonias capital of Tallinn, which can be reached in two hours by sea, and there are also plans to link the cities via an undersea tunnel. The nearby Helsinki-Vantaa airport is the countrys main international gateway and serves as a transfer hub for Asia.
Finland has been ranked the happiest country in the world for six consecutive years by the World Happiness Report. Its income tax rate tops out at 56% one of the highest in the world and the tax data of every resident is public. Helsinki played host to the 1952 Summer Olympics. The country joined the European Union in 1995 and adopted the euro as its currency in 1999. In 2023, Finland became a member of NATO.
As the capital, Helsinkis crypto events draw participants from across the country, making it the natural meeting place for the industry. For that reason, projects and companies from nearby cities like Tampere and Turku are also included here.
The area was first settled around 5000 BC as the ice age retreated. Vikings raided the established settlements, as did Swedish crusaders in the 10th and 13th centuries. The city was formally established in 1550 as a Swedish trading post, defended by Suomenlinna (Finlands fortress), the largest sea fort in Europe. Later, under Russian control as the Grand Duchy of Finland, the emperor moved the capital from Turku to Helsinki, which was closer to St. Petersburg. Finland became independent in 1917, after which it resisted Soviet occupation in the 1940 Winter War.

Crypto culture
Helsinkis claim to crypto fame rests with Martti Malmi, a software developer who in 2009 sold 5,050 BTC for a $5.02 PayPal transfer, marking the first time that Bitcoin was exchanged for fiat currency. It occurred before the much better-known May 22, 2010, Pizza Day, when Bitcoin was first used to purchase a physical good. Eventually, Malmi used most of his Bitcoin to purchase a studio in the metro area. If hed hung on to it, itd be worth $171 million today. The Bitcoin was used to seed an exchange called New Liberty Standard, which established the first BTC price of 1,309.03 BTC for $1.
Found the first known bitcoin to USD transaction from my email backups. I sold 5,050 BTC for $5,02 on 2009-10-12. https://t.co/8XcBmzJljf
Martti Malmi (@marttimalmi) January 15, 2014
Malmi was, in some ways, a product of his environment, with Helsinki recognized as a bed of technical innovation since Nokia began to dominate the cellphone market. In 1991, Linus Torvalds began working on what became Linux at the University of Helsinki. It is also home to many video game companies, with local firm Rovios Angry Birds achieving global fame in 2009. Helsinki is also the home of Aave founder Stani Kulechov, though he has moved abroad with the company.
In 2019, a then-staunchly Bitcoin maximalist group called Konsensus organized the translation of Saifedean Ammous 2018 book The Bitcoin Standard into Finnish, and later also translated The Little Bitcoin Book by The Bitcoin Collective. According to one member, the organization has since become more accepting of other cryptocurrencies and blockchain use cases.
The crypto community in Helsinki and Finland is somewhat disorganized and divided, with many enthusiasts being interested in one facet be it Bitcoin, NFTs or Web3 without embracing the whole, and thus having few common threads. Still, a certain grassroots energy is evident.

Where can I spend crypto in Helsinki?
Paying with Bitcoin is not common in Finland, where card and app payments dominate. One notable exception is the restaurant Faro, at which a few people are likely to buy a burger and beers with sats at the monthly Bitcoin meetup.
On the bar side, Taudo Baari and Time Bar also accept crypto. There is also the Osuva shooting range.
Samuel Harjunp, CEO and co-founder of hardware startup Xellox and regular at the Faro Bitcoin meetup, tells Magazine about the state of Bitcoin acceptance:
A few restaurants and bars have already been orange-pilled the biggest obstacles are the payment infrastructure and bookkeeping.
Crypto projects and companies in Helsinki
Today, Helsinki has a vibrant tech and startup scene with many coworking spaces. The city is also host to the annual Slush startup conference, which draws 25,000 participants.
Web3 Helsinki is a student-run organization that organized its first event on April 20, 2020, with about 150 people in attendance, making it perhaps the largest single crypto event of the year.
2023s events have included the Web3 Bash in late April, followed by the Aurora Nordic Web3 Conference in June. On June 6, the BRIDG3 Blockchain summit was held at Tamperes Nokia Arena, focusing on Web3, the metaverse and decentralized autonomous organizations.

The Finnish Bitcoin Association was established on May 6, in an event attended by Magazine, with membership fees paid primarily with Bitcoin via the Lightning Network. Upon the conclusion of formalities, the saunas of the hosting coworking space were fired up.
For those interested in NFTs, Fungi is a platform advertising a no-code solution that lets organizations build NFT-based communities. One of these was a metaverse island called Cornerstone for VR studio ZOAN, where 100 plots could be purchased as NFTs.
HABBO NFT, operated by the local creators of the 23-year-old online chat room game HABBO Hotel, has dropped an 11,600-piece avatar collection on OpenSea and is currently developing an NFT-based game. A group called The Future of Art has also dedicated itself to promoting digital art and runs an NFT gallery.

An aspiring LinkedIn competitor, Kleoverse, is a proof-of-talent Web3 platform for recruiters and jobseekers that displays skills such as knowledge in programming languages through badges instead of text on a resume.
Phaver is building a Web3 social media app powered by Lens Protocol, which bills itself as the social layer of Web3. Phaver is one of many local projects that have worked with tech design studio STRGL, which specializes in protocol-level Web3 solutions. STRGLs managing director, Kasper Karimaa, sees Helsinki as a haven for developers:
Finlands role in blockchain innovation through its agile engineering community makes Helsinki the perfect place to assemble a skilled team in research, design and development.
One of the most widely known crypto companies in the country was the P2P exchange LocalBitcoins, which employed about 50 people before closing its doors in February 2023. CEO Nikolaus Kangas told Cointelegraph that this was due to a failure to turn our trade volumes and declining market share back to growth.
Bittiraha, which translates to bit money in Finnish, is another old local crypto company. It was founded circa 2012 and installed the countrys first Bitcoin ATM at the Helsinki railway station in December 2013.
The company was also a distributor of Casascius physical Bitcoin and eventually made its own line of Denarium wallets. The parent company, Coinmotion based a few hours north in Jyvskyl now operates a cryptocurrency exchange.
Another major Finnish exchange called Northcrypto can be found in Turku.
A euro stablecoin has also been developed in the city. Membrane Finances EUROe was launched in February 2023 and is designed to be an EU-regulated full-reserve stablecoin that is compliant with recent legislation. While this is notable considering the relatively few operational euro stablecoins, volume remains low at approximately $20,000 per day.
Helsinki native Anita Krypto Granny Kalergis spends most of her time in Dubai, where she organizes blockchain conferences. She feels that Finnish entrepreneurs and decision-makers lack bravery, preferring to wait for someone else to take the lead and for regulatory certainty both from the national and EU levels. Most activity is not advertised, with especially older business people afraid to rock the boat or make major moves, she observes.
Companies here will build something to 95% completion before opening their mouth, whereas projects in other countries will raise money and build partnerships based on a white paper while testing in production.

Helsinkis crypto controversies
In 2018, the Finnish customs service planned to auction 1,666 BTC that it had seized in a drug case, but decided not to proceed due to concerns that the virtual money would return to the hands of criminals, displaying a rather negative official view of cryptocurrency. In July 2022, the state eventually auctioned nearly 2,000 BTC for $47 million, with proceeds being donated to Ukraine.
In December 2021, local media reported a trend of investment scams involving the faces of prominent people, including industrialist Heikki Herlin and then-Prime Minister Sanna Marin.
Earlier in 2018, the police also made warnings regarding a trend of Bitcoin blackmail relating to bogus claims that hackers had webcam material of users visiting pornographic websites. In 2022, a Helsinki watch dealer fell victim to a common crypto scam, handing over Rolex watches worth $400,000 after mistakenly believing that he had received a Bitcoin transaction.
Cryptocurrency, often adjacent to scams in the news, has come to be viewed with a relatively high degree of suspicion across most of society. Commenting on the decision to halt the 2018 customs seizure sale, Pekka Pylkknen, head of finance at the Finnish Customs Service, highlighted concerns about money laundering, telling national broadcaster YLE that the buyers of cyber currency rarely use them for normal endeavors.
National media regularly interview outspoken cryptocurrency critic Aleksi Grym, head of fintech for the Finnish Central Bank, as an authoritative expert without seeking alternative pro-cryptocurrency views, though coverage has been improving.
As one may notice from this article, the term Web3 is preferred, presumably due to its distancing from the negative stereotypes of cryptocurrency.
Neither the countrys political establishment nor any major party or other large grouping of the population could be described outright as being pro-crypto.
One reason for this could be Finlands stable, highly functional, and high-trust society, in which most people do not see the need to disrupt or fix something with cryptocurrency. Bank transfers are free and near-instantaneous across the EU, with cash use increasingly rare. Virtually nobody is unbanked, and the most trusted institution is the police, with 95% public support. Harjunp, whose startup is working on solutions to protect private keys, explains the disconnect:
Many people dont understand Bitcoin and think its something between criminal money and a pyramid scheme.
It is also notable that the moon mentality and dreams of quick wealth found in many cryptocurrency investors are generally seen in a particularly negative light, with Malmi noting that he never set out to make money with Bitcoin, perhaps owing to Finnish culture and his idealistic mentality.
In the same vein, cryptocurrencies are seen by some as drivers of inequality in a country where large differences in wealth are often considered taboo.
Crypto education and community
The Finnish Innovation Fund, or Sitra, has stated it as a priority to accelerate the local development of Web3 services, saying that its in Finlands interest to play an active role in ensuring that the metaverse is created in line with European values.
The fund has also worked with the Finnish National Gallery to create The Finnish Metagallery, an art gallery in the Decentraland metaverse whose building is modeled from the Finnish Pavilion as it appeared at the 1900 Paris World Fair.

In the old capital of Turku, The University of Turku hosts the Critical Inquiry Into DAOs (CIDS) research group, of which the author is part.
Notable crypto figures from Helsinki
Martti Malmi, the first person to sell Bitcoin for fiat; Henri Brade, board member of Coinmotion; Aleksi Lytynoja, CEO and co-founder of Kleoverse; Niko Laamanen, founder of Konsensus.
Martin Wichmann, chairman of Konsensus; Antti Innanen, founder of Fungi; Sointu Karjalainen, founder of The Good Cartel; Juha Viitala, CEO and co-founder of Membrane Finance; Mika Timonen, founder of Habbo NFT; Olli Tianinen, CEO of Equilibrium Labs; Kasper Karimaa, managing director at STRGL; Jarmo Suoranta, CEO of TX – Tomorrow Explored.
Keir Finlow-Bates, CEO of Chainfrog; Ville Runola, CEO and founder of Northcrypto; Samuel Harjunp, CEO and co-founder of Xellox; Joonatan Lintala, CEO and co-founder of Phaver.
Cointelegraph team members often found in Helsinki: Elias Ahonen.
If you have any suggestions for additions to this guide, please contact eliasahonen@cointelegraph.com.

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