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What is Ahead Next Week that is Expected to Fuel Market Jitters?

Week Ahead – Jitters Continue into Busy Week



This article was originally published by Market Pulse.

FacebookTwitterEmail Key Economic Releases and Events Monday 29th June
UK Time Country Relevance Indicator Name Period
00:50 Japan Medium Retail Sales YY May
05:00 Thailand Medium Manufacturing Prod YY May
08:00 Hungary Low Unemployment Rate 3M May
10:00 Euro Zone Medium Business Climate Jun
10:00 Euro Zone Medium Economic Sentiment Jun
10:00 Euro Zone Medium Industrial Sentiment Jun
10:00 Euro Zone Medium Services Sentiment Jun
15:00 United States Medium Pending Sales Change MM May
Tuesday 30th June
00:00 South Korea Medium Industrial Output YY May
00:30 Japan High Jobs/Applicants Ratio May
00:30 Japan High Unemployment Rate May
00:50 Japan High Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA May
02:00 China (Mainland) Low NBS Non-Mfg PMI Jun
02:00 China (Mainland) High NBS Manufacturing PMI Jun
07:00 United Kingdom High GDP QQ Q1
07:00 United Kingdom High GDP YY Q1
07:00 Denmark High GDP QQ Revised Q1
07:00 Denmark High GDP YY Revised Q1
07:00 Denmark High Unemployment Rate May
07:30 Switzerland Medium Retail Sales YY May
08:00 Spain High GDP QQ Q1
08:00 Spain Medium GDP YY Q1
08:00 Czech Republic Low Revised GDP YY Q1
08:30 Thailand Medium Trade Account May
09:30 Hong Kong Low Retail Sales YY May
10:00 Euro Zone High HICP Flash YY Jun
10:00 Euro Zone High HICP-X F&E Flash YY Jun
10:30 South Africa High GDP QQ Annualised Q1
10:30 South Africa High GDP YY Q1
13:30 Canada High GDP MM Apr
21:30 United States Not Rated API weekly crude stocks 22 Jun, w/e
Wednesday 1st July
00:50 Japan High Tankan Big Mf Idx Q2
01:30 Japan High Jibun Bank Mfg PMI Jun
01:30 South Korea High IHS Markit Mfg PMI Jun
01:30 Indonesia High IHS Markit PMI Jun
01:30 Thailand Medium Manufacturing PMI SA Jun
02:45 China (Mainland) High Caixin Mfg PMI Final Jun
06:00 India High IHS Markit Mfg PMI Jun
07:00 Germany Medium Retail Sales YY Real May
07:00 Russia High Markit Mfg PMI Jun
07:30 Sweden Medium PMI Manufacturing Sect Jun
08:00 Turkey High Manufacturing PMI Jun
08:00 Hungary Low Manufacturing PMI SA Jun
08:15 Spain Medium Manufacturing PMI Jun
08:30 Switzerland Medium Manufacturing PMI Jun
08:30 Sweden High Riksbank Rate 1 Jul
08:30 Czech Republic Medium Markit PMI Jun
08:45 Italy High Markit/IHS Mfg PMI Jun
08:50 France High Markit Mfg PMI Jun
08:55 Germany High Markit/BME Mfg PMI Jun
08:55 Germany High Unemployment Rate SA Jun
09:00 Norway Medium Manufacturing DNB PMI SA Jun
09:00 Euro Zone High Markit Mfg Final PMI Jun
09:30 United Kingdom High Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final Jun
10:00 Denmark Medium PMI Manuf Jun
13:15 United States Medium ADP National Employment Jun
14:45 United States High Markit Mfg PMI Final Jun
15:00 United States High ISM Manufacturing PMI Jun
15:30 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Crude Stocks 26 Jun, w/e
15:30 Mexico High Markit Mfg PMI Jun
Indonesia High Inflation YY Jun
Thursday 2nd June
00:00 South Korea Medium CPI Growth YY Jun
07:30 Switzerland Medium CPI YY Jun
08:00 Hungary Low Trade Balance Final Apr
09:00 Italy Medium Unemployment Rate May
10:00 Euro Zone High Unemployment Rate May
13:30 United States High Non-Farm Payrolls Jun
13:30 United States High Unemployment Rate Jun
13:30 United States Medium Average Earnings MM Jun
13:30 United States High Average Earnings YY Jun
13:30 United States Medium Average Workweek Hrs Jun
13:30 United States Low Labor Force Partic Jun
13:30 United States High Initial Jobless Claims 22 Jun, w/e
13:30 United States Medium Continued Jobless Claims 15 Jun, w/e
14:30 Canada High Markit Mfg PMI SA Jun
15:00 United States Low Durables Ex-Def, R MM May
15:00 United States Low Durable Goods, R MM May
15:00 United States High Factory Orders MM May
15:00 United States Low Factory Ex-Transp MM May
Friday 3rd June
00:01 United Kingdom Not Rated GfK Consumer Conf (Adhoc) Jun
01:30 Japan High Services PMI Jun
02:30 Australia High Retail Sales MM May
02:30 Australia High Trade Balance G&S (A$) May
02:45 China (Mainland) High Caixin Services PMI Jun
06:00 India High IHS Markit Svcs PMI Jun
06:00 Singapore Low Retail Sales YY May
07:00 Russia High Markit Services PMI Jun
07:30 Sweden Low PMI Services Jun
08:00 Turkey High CPI MM Jun
08:15 Spain Medium Services PMI Jun
08:15 South Africa High Std Bank Whole Econ PMI Jun
08:45 Italy Medium Markit/IHS Svcs PMI Jun
08:45 Italy Not Rated Composite PMI Jun
08:50 France High Markit Serv PMI Jun
08:50 France High Markit Comp PMI Jun
08:55 Germany High Markit Services PMI Jun
08:55 Germany High Markit Comp Final PMI Jun
09:00 Norway Medium Reg’d Unemployment SA Jun
09:00 Euro Zone High Markit Serv Final PMI Jun
09:00 Euro Zone High Markit Comp Final PMI Jun
09:30 United Kingdom Medium Markit/CIPS Serv PMI Final Jun
09:30 United Kingdom Not Rated Composite PMI Final Jun
14:00 Singapore Low Manufacturing PMI Jun
Thailand Medium CPI Headline Inflation Jun
Thailand Medium CPI Core Inflation YY Jun

Country US The Fed releases the Minutes to their last policy decision and may start to show some signs they are worried about inflation.  Policymakers will likely reiterate they are flying blind given the uncertainty about the course of COVID-19 and will likely keep all options on the table for further easing.  Negative rates are probably not on their radar unless we see the prospects of longer and deeper recession grow.  A lot of attention will fall on Texas and the halting of their reopening of its economy.  Texas was one of their first states to reopen and if they end up having to return to stricter restrictions, Wall Street could anticipate a much deeper recession as the V-shaped recovery could become a W-shaped one.  Coronavirus cases are growing by at least 5% in 31 states and this could see lost reopening momentum mean many-out-of-work Americans will struggle to find employment.  US Politics With just over four months to go to the US Presidential election, everyone is focusing on former-VP Biden’s strong performance in recent battleground state polls.  President Trump is starting to see the deficit widen in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.  The coronavirus is surging again and many states may be forced to pause or reverse reopening, as new coronavirus and hospitalizations surge.  Democrats are eagerly awaiting former-VP Biden’s decision on his running mate.  Prior to COVID-19, the Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled in July, meaning we should have found out his decision by June.  Since the convention was delayed till August 17th, he will have more time to evaluate his candidates.  Biden will turn 78 a few weeks after the election, so his VP selection will be critical for many voters. Brexit This week there has been some signs this week that compromise is possible on some of the more contentious areas of the trade deal but an agreement is still some way off. Thankfully an intense summer of negotiations are planned. Michel Barnier warned that “the real moment of truth” will come in October, which throws the summer deadline out of the window. But let’s face it, that was never going to happen. Sweden The Riksbank meets next week but no change is expected, with interest rates currently sitting at 0%. There may be some movement in the next quarter but a lot can change in that time, in the current environment.  China China is embroiled in multiple diplomatic conflicts at the moment, from US/China trade, Hong kong’s security law to the standoff with India in the Himalayas. Any of these could quickly escalate and have negative repercussions across markets around the world. Sunday, China releases Industrial Profits YTD for May. Expected-22.0%, a slight improvement. Worse than expected could see Asia markets sharply lower on Monday morning. Official and unofficial Manufacturing and Non-Manf PMI’s released throughout the week. Potential for short-term volatility. Hong Kong Hong Kong security law outline poorly received. 28th June meeting in Beijing to decide exact wording. That has potential to cause market volatility next week when released. Increased protests and depending on wording, negative impact on stock market. India Economy continues reopening but Covid-19 cases continue spiking, markets negative. Standoff with China continues in the Himalayas, the situation is tense and could escalate rapidly. No significant data. Australia Australian Dollar remains under pressure as bull-market correction continues. High potential for more downside. Australia stocks and currency could have a significant vulnerability to sudden downside shifts in sentiment as a proxy for global risk as momentum in global recovery trade appears to be ebbing. Community infections are increasing again in Victoria, Supermarkets limiting supplies. Markets negative. Friday Australia Balance of Trade, short-term volatility only. Japan North korean tensions have faded, markets positive. Covid-19 risks in Tokyo and Osaka. Heavy data week ahead. Ind. Prod, Tanken, Ret.Sales. Expected to show Japan’s recovery is very slow. Local markets negative. Market Oil The oil demand recovery story was dealt a blow this week after the US registered the biggest-ever jump in coronavirus cases, suggesting many states may have to visit regional lockdowns soon.  States will do their best to avoid a complete reversal with reopening phases, so the economic recovery should not complete stall out.  WTI crude has not been able to do much after capturing the $40 level and seems destined to continue to consolidate between the $35 and $42 level over the next couple weeks.  The rapid demand rebound is not happening, but stimulus efforts, pauses in reopening of businesses, improved treatments for the virus are limiting the downward pressure on crude prices.  Oil prices are slightly higher in early trade mirroring the broader fluctuations with US equities. Gold After nearly testing the $1800 an ounce level earlier in the week, gold prices are consolidating as the US dollar firms up.  Gold will continue to see strong support as the coronavirus situation deteriorates globally and as central banks and governments will continue to pump in more stimulus to avoid strains to the financial system and to salvage as many jobs as possible.  Gold prices (in dollar-terms) seem destined for record high territory as the latest spike in COVID-19 cases will see a much slower economic recovery that will keep the stimulus trade going strong.  The global recession might be deeper than expected, but a scramble for cash (extreme risk aversion forces investors to sell their gold positions for cash) will not likely take place for gold given the optimism with eventual rebound and breakthroughs on the treatment and vaccine front.

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Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare…



Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare quotes the soothsayer’s warning Julius Caesar about what turned out to be an impending assassination on March 15. The death of American liberty happened around the same time four years ago, when the orders went out from all levels of government to close all indoor and outdoor venues where people gather. 

It was not quite a law and it was never voted on by anyone. Seemingly out of nowhere, people who the public had largely ignored, the public health bureaucrats, all united to tell the executives in charge – mayors, governors, and the president – that the only way to deal with a respiratory virus was to scrap freedom and the Bill of Rights. 

And they did, not only in the US but all over the world. 

The forced closures in the US began on March 6 when the mayor of Austin, Texas, announced the shutdown of the technology and arts festival South by Southwest. Hundreds of thousands of contracts, of attendees and vendors, were instantly scrapped. The mayor said he was acting on the advice of his health experts and they in turn pointed to the CDC, which in turn pointed to the World Health Organization, which in turn pointed to member states and so on. 

There was no record of Covid in Austin, Texas, that day but they were sure they were doing their part to stop the spread. It was the first deployment of the “Zero Covid” strategy that became, for a time, official US policy, just as in China. 

It was never clear precisely who to blame or who would take responsibility, legal or otherwise. 

This Friday evening press conference in Austin was just the beginning. By the next Thursday evening, the lockdown mania reached a full crescendo. Donald Trump went on nationwide television to announce that everything was under control but that he was stopping all travel in and out of US borders, from Europe, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand. American citizens would need to return by Monday or be stuck. 

Americans abroad panicked while spending on tickets home and crowded into international airports with waits up to 8 hours standing shoulder to shoulder. It was the first clear sign: there would be no consistency in the deployment of these edicts. 

There is no historical record of any American president ever issuing global travel restrictions like this without a declaration of war. Until then, and since the age of travel began, every American had taken it for granted that he could buy a ticket and board a plane. That was no longer possible. Very quickly it became even difficult to travel state to state, as most states eventually implemented a two-week quarantine rule. 

The next day, Friday March 13, Broadway closed and New York City began to empty out as any residents who could went to summer homes or out of state. 

On that day, the Trump administration declared the national emergency by invoking the Stafford Act which triggers new powers and resources to the Federal Emergency Management Administration. 

In addition, the Department of Health and Human Services issued a classified document, only to be released to the public months later. The document initiated the lockdowns. It still does not exist on any government website.

The White House Coronavirus Response Task Force, led by the Vice President, will coordinate a whole-of-government approach, including governors, state and local officials, and members of Congress, to develop the best options for the safety, well-being, and health of the American people. HHS is the LFA [Lead Federal Agency] for coordinating the federal response to COVID-19.

Closures were guaranteed:

Recommend significantly limiting public gatherings and cancellation of almost all sporting events, performances, and public and private meetings that cannot be convened by phone. Consider school closures. Issue widespread ‘stay at home’ directives for public and private organizations, with nearly 100% telework for some, although critical public services and infrastructure may need to retain skeleton crews. Law enforcement could shift to focus more on crime prevention, as routine monitoring of storefronts could be important.

In this vision of turnkey totalitarian control of society, the vaccine was pre-approved: “Partner with pharmaceutical industry to produce anti-virals and vaccine.”

The National Security Council was put in charge of policy making. The CDC was just the marketing operation. That’s why it felt like martial law. Without using those words, that’s what was being declared. It even urged information management, with censorship strongly implied.

The timing here is fascinating. This document came out on a Friday. But according to every autobiographical account – from Mike Pence and Scott Gottlieb to Deborah Birx and Jared Kushner – the gathered team did not meet with Trump himself until the weekend of the 14th and 15th, Saturday and Sunday. 

According to their account, this was his first real encounter with the urge that he lock down the whole country. He reluctantly agreed to 15 days to flatten the curve. He announced this on Monday the 16th with the famous line: “All public and private venues where people gather should be closed.”

This makes no sense. The decision had already been made and all enabling documents were already in circulation. 

There are only two possibilities. 

One: the Department of Homeland Security issued this March 13 HHS document without Trump’s knowledge or authority. That seems unlikely. 

Two: Kushner, Birx, Pence, and Gottlieb are lying. They decided on a story and they are sticking to it. 

Trump himself has never explained the timeline or precisely when he decided to greenlight the lockdowns. To this day, he avoids the issue beyond his constant claim that he doesn’t get enough credit for his handling of the pandemic.

With Nixon, the famous question was always what did he know and when did he know it? When it comes to Trump and insofar as concerns Covid lockdowns – unlike the fake allegations of collusion with Russia – we have no investigations. To this day, no one in the corporate media seems even slightly interested in why, how, or when human rights got abolished by bureaucratic edict. 

As part of the lockdowns, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which was and is part of the Department of Homeland Security, as set up in 2018, broke the entire American labor force into essential and nonessential.

They also set up and enforced censorship protocols, which is why it seemed like so few objected. In addition, CISA was tasked with overseeing mail-in ballots. 

Only 8 days into the 15, Trump announced that he wanted to open the country by Easter, which was on April 12. His announcement on March 24 was treated as outrageous and irresponsible by the national press but keep in mind: Easter would already take us beyond the initial two-week lockdown. What seemed to be an opening was an extension of closing. 

This announcement by Trump encouraged Birx and Fauci to ask for an additional 30 days of lockdown, which Trump granted. Even on April 23, Trump told Georgia and Florida, which had made noises about reopening, that “It’s too soon.” He publicly fought with the governor of Georgia, who was first to open his state. 

Before the 15 days was over, Congress passed and the president signed the 880-page CARES Act, which authorized the distribution of $2 trillion to states, businesses, and individuals, thus guaranteeing that lockdowns would continue for the duration. 

There was never a stated exit plan beyond Birx’s public statements that she wanted zero cases of Covid in the country. That was never going to happen. It is very likely that the virus had already been circulating in the US and Canada from October 2019. A famous seroprevalence study by Jay Bhattacharya came out in May 2020 discerning that infections and immunity were already widespread in the California county they examined. 

What that implied was two crucial points: there was zero hope for the Zero Covid mission and this pandemic would end as they all did, through endemicity via exposure, not from a vaccine as such. That was certainly not the message that was being broadcast from Washington. The growing sense at the time was that we all had to sit tight and just wait for the inoculation on which pharmaceutical companies were working. 

By summer 2020, you recall what happened. A restless generation of kids fed up with this stay-at-home nonsense seized on the opportunity to protest racial injustice in the killing of George Floyd. Public health officials approved of these gatherings – unlike protests against lockdowns – on grounds that racism was a virus even more serious than Covid. Some of these protests got out of hand and became violent and destructive. 

Meanwhile, substance abuse rage – the liquor and weed stores never closed – and immune systems were being degraded by lack of normal exposure, exactly as the Bakersfield doctors had predicted. Millions of small businesses had closed. The learning losses from school closures were mounting, as it turned out that Zoom school was near worthless. 

It was about this time that Trump seemed to figure out – thanks to the wise council of Dr. Scott Atlas – that he had been played and started urging states to reopen. But it was strange: he seemed to be less in the position of being a president in charge and more of a public pundit, Tweeting out his wishes until his account was banned. He was unable to put the worms back in the can that he had approved opening. 

By that time, and by all accounts, Trump was convinced that the whole effort was a mistake, that he had been trolled into wrecking the country he promised to make great. It was too late. Mail-in ballots had been widely approved, the country was in shambles, the media and public health bureaucrats were ruling the airwaves, and his final months of the campaign failed even to come to grips with the reality on the ground. 

At the time, many people had predicted that once Biden took office and the vaccine was released, Covid would be declared to have been beaten. But that didn’t happen and mainly for one reason: resistance to the vaccine was more intense than anyone had predicted. The Biden administration attempted to impose mandates on the entire US workforce. Thanks to a Supreme Court ruling, that effort was thwarted but not before HR departments around the country had already implemented them. 

As the months rolled on – and four major cities closed all public accommodations to the unvaccinated, who were being demonized for prolonging the pandemic – it became clear that the vaccine could not and would not stop infection or transmission, which means that this shot could not be classified as a public health benefit. Even as a private benefit, the evidence was mixed. Any protection it provided was short-lived and reports of vaccine injury began to mount. Even now, we cannot gain full clarity on the scale of the problem because essential data and documentation remains classified. 

After four years, we find ourselves in a strange position. We still do not know precisely what unfolded in mid-March 2020: who made what decisions, when, and why. There has been no serious attempt at any high level to provide a clear accounting much less assign blame. 

Not even Tucker Carlson, who reportedly played a crucial role in getting Trump to panic over the virus, will tell us the source of his own information or what his source told him. There have been a series of valuable hearings in the House and Senate but they have received little to no press attention, and none have focus on the lockdown orders themselves. 

The prevailing attitude in public life is just to forget the whole thing. And yet we live now in a country very different from the one we inhabited five years ago. Our media is captured. Social media is widely censored in violation of the First Amendment, a problem being taken up by the Supreme Court this month with no certainty of the outcome. The administrative state that seized control has not given up power. Crime has been normalized. Art and music institutions are on the rocks. Public trust in all official institutions is at rock bottom. We don’t even know if we can trust the elections anymore. 

In the early days of lockdown, Henry Kissinger warned that if the mitigation plan does not go well, the world will find itself set “on fire.” He died in 2023. Meanwhile, the world is indeed on fire. The essential struggle in every country on earth today concerns the battle between the authority and power of permanent administration apparatus of the state – the very one that took total control in lockdowns – and the enlightenment ideal of a government that is responsible to the will of the people and the moral demand for freedom and rights. 

How this struggle turns out is the essential story of our times. 

CODA: I’m embedding a copy of PanCAP Adapted, as annotated by Debbie Lerman. You might need to download the whole thing to see the annotations. If you can help with research, please do.

*  *  *

Jeffrey Tucker is the author of the excellent new book 'Life After Lock-Down'

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 23:40

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CDC Warns Thousands Of Children Sent To ER After Taking Common Sleep Aid

CDC Warns Thousands Of Children Sent To ER After Taking Common Sleep Aid

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),




CDC Warns Thousands Of Children Sent To ER After Taking Common Sleep Aid

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) paper released Thursday found that thousands of young children have been taken to the emergency room over the past several years after taking the very common sleep-aid supplement melatonin.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia, on April 23, 2020. (Tami Chappell/AFP via Getty Images)

The agency said that melatonin, which can come in gummies that are meant for adults, was implicated in about 7 percent of all emergency room visits for young children and infants “for unsupervised medication ingestions,” adding that many incidents were linked to the ingestion of gummy formulations that were flavored. Those incidents occurred between the years 2019 and 2022.

Melatonin is a hormone produced by the human body to regulate its sleep cycle. Supplements, which are sold in a number of different formulas, are generally taken before falling asleep and are popular among people suffering from insomnia, jet lag, chronic pain, or other problems.

The supplement isn’t regulated by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and does not require child-resistant packaging. However, a number of supplement companies include caps or lids that are difficult for children to open.

The CDC report said that a significant number of melatonin-ingestion cases among young children were due to the children opening bottles that had not been properly closed or were within their reach. Thursday’s report, the agency said, “highlights the importance of educating parents and other caregivers about keeping all medications and supplements (including gummies) out of children’s reach and sight,” including melatonin.

The approximately 11,000 emergency department visits for unsupervised melatonin ingestions by infants and young children during 2019–2022 highlight the importance of educating parents and other caregivers about keeping all medications and supplements (including gummies) out of children’s reach and sight.

The CDC notes that melatonin use among Americans has increased five-fold over the past 25 years or so. That has coincided with a 530 percent increase in poison center calls for melatonin exposures to children between 2012 and 2021, it said, as well as a 420 percent increase in emergency visits for unsupervised melatonin ingestion by young children or infants between 2009 and 2020.

Some health officials advise that children under the age of 3 should avoid taking melatonin unless a doctor says otherwise. Side effects include drowsiness, headaches, agitation, dizziness, and bed wetting.

Other symptoms of too much melatonin include nausea, diarrhea, joint pain, anxiety, and irritability. The supplement can also impact blood pressure.

However, there is no established threshold for a melatonin overdose, officials have said. Most adult melatonin supplements contain a maximum of 10 milligrams of melatonin per serving, and some contain less.

Many people can tolerate even relatively large doses of melatonin without significant harm, officials say. But there is no antidote for an overdose. In cases of a child accidentally ingesting melatonin, doctors often ask a reliable adult to monitor them at home.

Dr. Cora Collette Breuner, with the Seattle Children’s Hospital at the University of Washington, told CNN that parents should speak with a doctor before giving their children the supplement.

“I also tell families, this is not something your child should take forever. Nobody knows what the long-term effects of taking this is on your child’s growth and development,” she told the outlet. “Taking away blue-light-emitting smartphones, tablets, laptops, and television at least two hours before bed will keep melatonin production humming along, as will reading or listening to bedtime stories in a softly lit room, taking a warm bath, or doing light stretches.”

In 2022, researchers found that in 2021, U.S. poison control centers received more than 52,000 calls about children consuming worrisome amounts of the dietary supplement. That’s a six-fold increase from about a decade earlier. Most such calls are about young children who accidentally got into bottles of melatonin, some of which come in the form of gummies for kids, the report said.

Dr. Karima Lelak, an emergency physician at Children’s Hospital of Michigan and the lead author of the study published in 2022 by the CDC, found that in about 83 percent of those calls, the children did not show any symptoms.

However, other children had vomiting, altered breathing, or other symptoms. Over the 10 years studied, more than 4,000 children were hospitalized, five were put on machines to help them breathe, and two children under the age of two died. Most of the hospitalized children were teenagers, and many of those ingestions were thought to be suicide attempts.

Those researchers also suggested that COVID-19 lockdowns and virtual learning forced more children to be at home all day, meaning there were more opportunities for kids to access melatonin. Also, those restrictions may have caused sleep-disrupting stress and anxiety, leading more families to consider melatonin, they suggested.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 21:40

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Red Candle In The Wind

Red Candle In The Wind

By Benjamin PIcton of Rabobank

February non-farm payrolls superficially exceeded market expectations on Friday by…



Red Candle In The Wind

By Benjamin PIcton of Rabobank

February non-farm payrolls superficially exceeded market expectations on Friday by printing at 275,000 against a consensus call of 200,000. We say superficially, because the downward revisions to prior months totalled 167,000 for December and January, taking the total change in employed persons well below the implied forecast, and helping the unemployment rate to pop two-ticks to 3.9%. The U6 underemployment rate also rose from 7.2% to 7.3%, while average hourly earnings growth fell to 0.2% m-o-m and average weekly hours worked languished at 34.3, equalling pre-pandemic lows.

Undeterred by the devil in the detail, the algos sprang into action once exchanges opened. Market darling NVIDIA hit a new intraday high of $974 before (presumably) the humans took over and sold the stock down more than 10% to close at $875.28. If our suspicions are correct that it was the AIs buying before the humans started selling (no doubt triggering trailing stops on the way down), the irony is not lost on us.

The 1-day chart for NVIDIA now makes for interesting viewing, because the red candle posted on Friday presents quite a strong bearish engulfing signal. Volume traded on the day was almost double the 15-day simple moving average, and similar price action is observable on the 1-day charts for both Intel and AMD. Regular readers will be aware that we have expressed incredulity in the past about the durability the AI thematic melt-up, so it will be interesting to see whether Friday’s sell off is just a profit-taking blip, or a genuine trend reversal.

AI equities aside, this week ought to be important for markets because the BTFP program expires today. That means that the Fed will no longer be loaning cash to the banking system in exchange for collateral pledged at-par. The KBW Regional Banking index has so far taken this in its stride and is trading 30% above the lows established during the mini banking crisis of this time last year, but the Fed’s liquidity facility was effectively an exercise in can-kicking that makes regional banks a sector of the market worth paying attention to in the weeks ahead. Even here in Sydney, regulators are warning of external risks posed to the banking sector from scheduled refinancing of commercial real estate loans following sharp falls in valuations.

Markets are sending signals in other sectors, too. Gold closed at a new record-high of $2178/oz on Friday after trading above $2200/oz briefly. Gold has been going ballistic since the Friday before last, posting gains even on days where 2-year Treasury yields have risen. Gold bugs are buying as real yields fall from the October highs and inflation breakevens creep higher. This is particularly interesting as gold ETFs have been recording net outflows; suggesting that price gains aren’t being driven by a retail pile-in. Are gold buyers now betting on a stagflationary outcome where the Fed cuts without inflation being anchored at the 2% target? The price action around the US CPI release tomorrow ought to be illuminating.

Leaving the day-to-day movements to one side, we are also seeing further signs of structural change at the macro level. The UK budget last week included a provision for the creation of a British ISA. That is, an Individual Savings Account that provides tax breaks to savers who invest their money in the stock of British companies. This follows moves last year to encourage pension funds to head up the risk curve by allocating 5% of their capital to unlisted investments.

As a Hail Mary option for a government cruising toward an electoral drubbing it’s a curious choice, but it’s worth highlighting as cash-strapped governments increasingly see private savings pools as a funding solution for their spending priorities.

Of course, the UK is not alone in making creeping moves towards financial repression. In contrast to announcements today of increased trade liberalisation, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers has in the recent past flagged his interest in tapping private pension savings to fund state spending priorities, including defence, public housing and renewable energy projects. Both the UK and Australia appear intent on finding ways to open up the lungs of their economies, but government wants more say in directing private capital flows for state goals.

So, how far is the blurring of the lines between free markets and state planning likely to go? Given the immense and varied budgetary (and security) pressures that governments are facing, could we see a re-up of WWII-era Victory bonds, where private investors are encouraged to do their patriotic duty by directly financing government at negative real rates?

That would really light a fire under the gold market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 19:00

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