Weekly investment update – A history lesson
As happens occasionally, the view of the world one sees expressed in fixed-income prices seems quite different from the one seen in equity markets. Today, however, the divergence is more evident in the price of volatility than it is in the price of indust
As happens occasionally, the view of the world one sees expressed in fixed-income prices seems quite different from the one seen in equity markets. Today, however, the divergence is more evident in the price of volatility than it is in the price of industry benchmarks.
The S&P 500 is hovering near all-time highs, seemingly unconcerned about rising inflation or Covid, while US Treasury yields have ranged from 1.4% to 1.7%, reflecting perhaps a more balanced view of the current environment.
Volatility indices reinforce the view that equity markets are sanguine, while for fixed income markets, they point to perhaps greater nervousness. The VIX index, which measures expected volatility for the S&P 500, is near the lows for the year, while the MOVE index, which measures Treasury yield volatility, has touched a high for 2021 (see Exhibit 1).
Why the divergence? For now at least, equity markets are focused on strong economic growth and a much-better-than-expected third-quarter earnings season. Instead of crimping profit margins, higher input prices and wage costs have been passed on rather easily to consumers. The ratio of sales prices to input prices has started to rise. Besides raising nominal growth rates, rising inflation is encouraging consumers to buy now before prices go even higher.
The high level of fixed-income market volatility reflects the less certain outlook for interest rates. Fed funds rate expectations have been rising steadily as markets anticipate the start of a new rate rising cycle, but whether it will begin in June or September 2022 is unclear. The expected rate at the end of the cycle has varied by nearly 100bp over the course of the year. The Fed’s own forecasts are unusually wide, with estimates of the rate in 2024 ranging from 0.625% to 2.625%.
The uncertain policy rate outlook reflects, in turn, the uncertain path of inflation. Not only has the headline consumer price index (CPI) surpassed consensus estimates eight times this year, the amount of the surprises over the last year are well above average.
The uncertainty over inflation should not be surprising as one could hardly forecast the impact of trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus on an economy that was shut for several months of the year. In addition, the pandemic has led to significant changes in the attitude of workers, adding labour market uncertainty to the mix.
The risk for equities would come from a further acceleration in the inflation rate, medium-term inflation expectations rising above their long-run averages, and the Fed coming under pressure to accelerate its tapering programme and raise interest rates sooner, and by more, than currently anticipated.
A history lesson
Despite the unprecedented pandemic and the authorities’ response to it, we have looked for historical parallels to help us anticipate what might occur.
A blog post by the US Council of Economic Advisers suggests the inflationary episode from 1946-48 was a more appropriate comparison period than the 1970s, as the post-war period was characterised by supply shortages colliding with newly released pent-up demand. The inflation was transitory, however, and after peaking at nearly 20% in March 1947, the CPI rate had turned negative by May 1949. As Paul Krugman has pointed out, however, the Fed’s response to the high inflation ultimately provoked a recession.
How did US equities do during that period? Investors generally view equities as one of the better hedges against inflation. That has proved to be the case so far this year. Since US CPI accelerated to above 2% in March, the S&P 500 has gained 23%. The experience from 1946-48 was rather different.
To curb stock market speculation, regulators increased margin requirements in January 1946 from 75% to 100%. Many investors were forced to sell their shares to meet the requirements, which contributed to a more than 20% decline in the market (see Exhibit 2). [1]
By the time inflation had fallen back to 3%, the S&P 500 was 9% higher than the low of February 1948, but still 21% below the peak in May 1946. The most resistant sector was energy, which dropped by just 2% from May 1946 to February 1948, followed by technology (at the time, consisting of computer hardware). The worst performing sectors were healthcare and industrials.
This year, the top sectors have been real estate, information technology and consumer discretionary; the worst, consumer staples and utilities. So even if the outlook for inflation resembles that of the late 1940s, there appear to be few lessons for the markets.
[1] The 8 Worst Market Crashes of the Last Century
Any views expressed here are those of the author as of the date of publication, are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may take different investment decisions for different clients. This document does not constitute investment advice.
The value of investments and the income they generate may go down as well as up and it is possible that investors will not recover their initial outlay. Past performance is no guarantee for future returns.
Investing in emerging markets, or specialised or restricted sectors is likely to be subject to a higher-than-average volatility due to a high degree of concentration, greater uncertainty because less information is available, there is less liquidity or due to greater sensitivity to changes in market conditions (social, political and economic conditions).Some emerging markets offer less security than the majority of international developed markets. For this reason, services for portfolio transactions, liquidation and conservation on behalf of funds invested in emerging markets may carry greater risk.
Writen by Daniel Morris. The post Weekly investment update – A history lesson appeared first on Investors' Corner - The official blog of BNP Paribas Asset Management, the sustainable investor for a changing world.
recession pandemic stimulus economic growth sp 500 emerging markets equities fed us treasury real estate interest ratesUncategorized
Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more
New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…
- A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more.
- The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
- The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia.
Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.
The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later.
The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.
The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.
Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing.
Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year.
Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.
Metropolitan Area | Best Time to List | Price Premium | Dollar Boost |
United States | First half of June | 2.3% | $7,700 |
New York, NY | First half of July | 2.4% | $15,500 |
Los Angeles, CA | First half of May | 4.1% | $39,300 |
Chicago, IL | First half of June | 2.8% | $8,800 |
Dallas, TX | First half of June | 2.5% | $9,200 |
Houston, TX | Second half of April | 2.0% | $6,200 |
Washington, DC | Second half of June | 2.2% | $12,700 |
Philadelphia, PA | First half of July | 2.4% | $8,200 |
Miami, FL | First half of June | 2.3% | $12,900 |
Atlanta, GA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $8,700 |
Boston, MA | Second half of May | 3.5% | $23,600 |
Phoenix, AZ | First half of June | 3.2% | $14,700 |
San Francisco, CA | Second half of February | 4.2% | $50,300 |
Riverside, CA | First half of May | 2.7% | $15,600 |
Detroit, MI | First half of July | 3.3% | $7,900 |
Seattle, WA | First half of June | 4.3% | $31,500 |
Minneapolis, MN | Second half of May | 3.7% | $13,400 |
San Diego, CA | Second half of April | 3.1% | $29,600 |
Tampa, FL | Second half of June | 2.1% | $8,000 |
Denver, CO | Second half of May | 2.9% | $16,900 |
Baltimore, MD | First half of July | 2.2% | $8,200 |
St. Louis, MO | First half of June | 2.9% | $7,000 |
Orlando, FL | First half of June | 2.2% | $8,700 |
Charlotte, NC | Second half of May | 3.0% | $11,000 |
San Antonio, TX | First half of June | 1.9% | $5,400 |
Portland, OR | Second half of April | 2.6% | $14,300 |
Sacramento, CA | First half of June | 3.2% | $17,900 |
Pittsburgh, PA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $4,700 |
Cincinnati, OH | Second half of April | 2.7% | $7,500 |
Austin, TX | Second half of May | 2.8% | $12,600 |
Las Vegas, NV | First half of June | 3.4% | $14,600 |
Kansas City, MO | Second half of May | 2.5% | $7,300 |
Columbus, OH | Second half of June | 3.3% | $10,400 |
Indianapolis, IN | First half of July | 3.0% | $8,100 |
Cleveland, OH | First half of July | 3.4% | $7,400 |
San Jose, CA | First half of June | 5.5% | $88,400 |
The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.
federal reserve pandemic home sales mortgage rates interest ratesGovernment
Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19
Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19
A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat"…
A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat" to the health of the US population - a sharp decline from a high of 67% in July 2020.
What's more, the Pew Research Center survey conducted from Feb. 7 to Feb. 11 showed that just 10% of Americans are concerned that they will catch the disease and require hospitalization.
"This data represents a low ebb of public concern about the virus that reached its height in the summer and fall of 2020, when as many as two-thirds of Americans viewed COVID-19 as a major threat to public health," reads the report, which was published March 7.
According to the survey, half of the participants understand the significance of researchers and healthcare providers in understanding and treating long COVID - however 27% of participants consider this issue less important, while 22% of Americans are unaware of long COVID.
What's more, while Democrats were far more worried than Republicans in the past, that gap has narrowed significantly.
"In the pandemic’s first year, Democrats were routinely about 40 points more likely than Republicans to view the coronavirus as a major threat to the health of the U.S. population. This gap has waned as overall levels of concern have fallen," reads the report.
More via the Epoch Times;
The survey found that three in ten Democrats under 50 have received an updated COVID-19 vaccine, compared with 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older.
Moreover, 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older have received the updated COVID-19 vaccine, while only 24 percent of Republicans ages 65 and older have done so.
“This 42-point partisan gap is much wider now than at other points since the start of the outbreak. For instance, in August 2021, 93 percent of older Democrats and 78 percent of older Republicans said they had received all the shots needed to be fully vaccinated (a 15-point gap),” it noted.
COVID-19 No Longer an Emergency
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently issued its updated recommendations for the virus, which no longer require people to stay home for five days after testing positive for COVID-19.
The updated guidance recommends that people who contracted a respiratory virus stay home, and they can resume normal activities when their symptoms improve overall and their fever subsides for 24 hours without medication.
“We still must use the commonsense solutions we know work to protect ourselves and others from serious illness from respiratory viruses, this includes vaccination, treatment, and staying home when we get sick,” CDC director Dr. Mandy Cohen said in a statement.
The CDC said that while the virus remains a threat, it is now less likely to cause severe illness because of widespread immunity and improved tools to prevent and treat the disease.
“Importantly, states and countries that have already adjusted recommended isolation times have not seen increased hospitalizations or deaths related to COVID-19,” it stated.
The federal government suspended its free at-home COVID-19 test program on March 8, according to a website set up by the government, following a decrease in COVID-19-related hospitalizations.
According to the CDC, hospitalization rates for COVID-19 and influenza diseases remain “elevated” but are decreasing in some parts of the United States.
International
Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says “I Would Support”
Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says "I Would Support"
Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump…
Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump into the race to become the next Senate GOP leader, and Elon Musk was quick to support the idea. Republicans must find a successor for periodically malfunctioning Mitch McConnell, who recently announced he'll step down in November, though intending to keep his Senate seat until his term ends in January 2027, when he'd be within weeks of turning 86.
So far, the announced field consists of two quintessential establishment types: John Cornyn of Texas and John Thune of South Dakota. While John Barrasso's name had been thrown around as one of "The Three Johns" considered top contenders, the Wyoming senator on Tuesday said he'll instead seek the number two slot as party whip.
Paul used X to tease his potential bid for the position which -- if the GOP takes back the upper chamber in November -- could graduate from Minority Leader to Majority Leader. He started by telling his 5.1 million followers he'd had lots of people asking him about his interest in running...
Thousands of people have been asking if I'd run for Senate leadership...
— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) March 8, 2024
...then followed up with a poll in which he predictably annihilated Cornyn and Thune, taking a 96% share as of Friday night, with the other two below 2% each.
????????️VOTE NOW ????️ ???? Who would you like to be the next Senate leader?
— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) March 8, 2024
Elon Musk was quick to back the idea of Paul as GOP leader, while daring Cornyn and Thune to follow Paul's lead by throwing their names out for consideration by the Twitter-verse X-verse.
I would support Rand Paul and suspect that other candidates will not actually run polls out of concern for the results, but let’s see if they will!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 8, 2024
Paul has been a stalwart opponent of security-state mass surveillance, foreign interventionism -- to include shoveling billions of dollars into the proxy war in Ukraine -- and out-of-control spending in general. He demonstrated the latter passion on the Senate floor this week as he ridiculed the latest kick-the-can spending package:
This bill is an insult to the American people. The earmarks are all the wasteful spending that you could ever hope to see, and it should be defeated. Read more: https://t.co/Jt8K5iucA4 pic.twitter.com/I5okd4QgDg
— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) March 8, 2024
In February, Paul used Senate rules to force his colleagues into a grueling Super Bowl weekend of votes, as he worked to derail a $95 billion foreign aid bill. "I think we should stay here as long as it takes,” said Paul. “If it takes a week or a month, I’ll force them to stay here to discuss why they think the border of Ukraine is more important than the US border.”
Don't expect a Majority Leader Paul to ditch the filibuster -- he's been a hardy user of the legislative delay tactic. In 2013, he spoke for 13 hours to fight the nomination of John Brennan as CIA director. In 2015, he orated for 10-and-a-half-hours to oppose extension of the Patriot Act.
Among the general public, Paul is probably best known as Capitol Hill's chief tormentor of Dr. Anthony Fauci, who was director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease during the Covid-19 pandemic. Paul says the evidence indicates the virus emerged from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology. He's accused Fauci and other members of the US government public health apparatus of evading questions about their funding of the Chinese lab's "gain of function" research, which takes natural viruses and morphs them into something more dangerous. Paul has pointedly said that Fauci committed perjury in congressional hearings and that he belongs in jail "without question."
Musk is neither the only nor the first noteworthy figure to back Paul for party leader. Just hours after McConnell announced his upcoming step-down from leadership, independent 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr voiced his support:
Mitch McConnell, who has served in the Senate for almost 40 years, announced he'll step down this November.
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) February 28, 2024
Part of public service is about knowing when to usher in a new generation. It’s time to promote leaders in Washington, DC who won’t kowtow to the military contractors or…
In a testament to the extent to which the establishment recoils at the libertarian-minded Paul, mainstream media outlets -- which have been quick to report on other developments in the majority leader race -- pretended not to notice that Paul had signaled his interest in the job. More than 24 hours after Paul's test-the-waters tweet-fest began, not a single major outlet had brought it to the attention of their audience.
That may be his strongest endorsement yet.
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