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Weekend Links – February 26, 2021

Friday, February 26, 2021Volume 2, Issue 16 “I try to think of my shareholders as my partners. I try to think of the information I would want them to send me if they were running the place, and I was the
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Friday, February 26, 2021
Volume 2, Issue 16


“I try to think of my shareholders as my partners. I try to think of the information I would want them to send me if they were running the place, and I was the shareholder. What would I want to know? This is what I tell them.  In my first draft, I address it to my sisters who don’t know a lot about finance. “Dear sisters”- I explain to them what they would want to know in their position.” 

— Warren Buffett describing how he writes letters to shareholders

Berkshire Hathaway’s 2020 annual report and Warren Buffett’s letter to shareholders will be posted on the company’s website at approximately 8:00 a.m. eastern time tomorrow. 


Jeremy Grantham – A Historic Market Bubble, February 23, 2021. “My favorite example from 2000 with lunchtime greasy spoons that we went into in Downtown Boston, and they all had quite a few television sets and they were all playing replays of the Celtics and the Pats. For a few months there in late ’99, early 2000, they’d closed the sports ones and trends for them to CNBC. And we’d have talking heads talking about the latest pet.com’s. That was terrific, that gave you just a month or two to plan accordingly, plan evasive action. And I would say we have passed the acceleration test brilliantly, and I would say we have passed the crazy behavior test brilliantly. And a lot of the craziest behavior actually taken place this year in January, February.” Note: This is Grantham’s second appearance on the Invest Like the Best podcast. His previous appearance, entitled An Uncertain Crisis, was posted on July 9, 2020. (Invest Like the Best)

Bruce Berkowitz: From Morningstar Manager of the Decade to 15 Years of Underperformance, February 17, 2021. This is an interesting account of the track record of Bruce Berkowitz, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Fairholme Capital Management. Berkowitz was one of the most successful investors of the 2000s and was widely followed by investors who admired his time tested principles for investing. However, over the past decade, Berkowitz made concentrated bets that have not worked out, mostly notably in the case of Sears. It’s easy to play Monday morning quarterback and examine another investor’s history with the benefit of hindsight, but I think that this article tries to present a fair assessment, overall, and can help us understand and learn from the factors that led to this dramatic fall from grace. (Canuck Investment Analyst)

What Gene Editing Can Do for Humankind by Walter Isaacson, February 19, 2021. This essay is an excerpt from Isaacson’s latest book, The Code Breaker, which is scheduled for release on March 9. Rapid advances in the ability of scientists to alter the human genome has brought about varied reactions. The prospect of being able to edit the DNA of an embryo to prevent hereditary diseases such as sickle cell anemia holds the promise of alleviating major sources of human suffering. At the same time, the prospect of “designer babies” has all sorts of potentially negative ramifications ranging from a reduction of diversity in the gene pool to a further spiking of inequality as the wealthy give their offspring a genetic edge not available to others. The American creed of “all people are created equal” might be forever changed. It seems best to keep an open mind regarding this technology. I am planning to read Isaacson’s new book later this year. (WSJ)

The Rewind – You Can’t Predict. You Can Prepare by Howard Marks, February 24, 2021. Howard Marks looks back on a memo originally published on November 20, 2001. The title of this memo was inspired by a TV commercial tagline from that time: “It’s almost a Yogi Berra type statement that makes no apparent sense on first reading, but then it turns out to be quite wise.” This podcast includes Marks giving his current thoughts about what he wrote two decades ago. This is followed by a narrator who reads the original memo. (Oaktree Capital)

The Activists Who Embrace Nuclear Power by Rebecca Tuhus-Dubrow, February 19, 2021. In 1953, President Eisenhower delivered his Atoms for Peace speech at the United Nations. Acknowledging the grave dangers of nuclear weapons, the President hoped that “this greatest of destructive forces can be developed into a great boon, for the benefit of all mankind.” Nuclear energy has many benefits, including not emitting carbon dioxide, and requiring only a small amount of land to generate vast amounts of power, unlike windmills and solar panels. However, nuclear power carries the risk of environmental catastrophe with the most devastating example being the meltdown at Chernobyl in 1986. This long article does a good job of describing the pros and cons of nuclear power as a tool for mitigating the risk of climate change. (The New Yorker)

Your Environment Shapes Your Decisions This Farnam Street article published in 2013 describes the highly dysfunctional environment of many modern offices: “From the moment you arrive until the moment you leave, you make an inch of progress on twenty things rather than ten feet of progress on one thing.” Technology has existed to facilitate remote work for more than a decade but the pandemic is what forced home and office life to merge for millions of workers. The distractions and patterns of work in the modern office have been replaced by an entirely new set of distractions but the core message of this article still resonates: environment matters. Molding your work environment, whether in your home or an office, to allow for focus and minimize context switching remains a prerequisite for real productivity. (Farnam Street)

100 (Short) Rules for a Better Life by Ryan Holiday, February 23, 2021. In this article, Holiday shares many of his rules for improving your life. Most of the rules are links to longer articles so if you are not familiar with Holiday’s work, this is a good place to start. I particularly liked don’t watch television newstake walkscut toxic people out of your lifedon’t take the moneyand animals make life better(RyanHoliday.com)

Fry’s Electronics suddenly went out of business by Jordan Valinsky, February 24, 2021. Fry’s Electronics was a small, privately held chain of stores based in the Silicon Valley that aimed to be a “one stop shop for hi-tech professionals”. In other words, it was a Mecca for nerds. The Campbell location of Fry’s was located on Hamilton Road, a short distance from the first home I owned and down the street from the office I worked in from 1997 to 1999. It is the store I went to when I built my first Windows computer in 1995 and purchased the books to learn programming. I have not been in a Fry’s location in well over a decade and often wondered how they were able to stay in business given their small scale and online competition. They held out for a long time but apparently could not survive the pandemic. (CNN)


Daily Journal Annual Meeting

If you missed the Daily Journal annual meeting on Wednesday, Yahoo! Finance has posted the full meeting and interview on YouTube. A transcript has been posted (h/t to Value Investing World for the link).

Warren Buffett has said that Charlie Munger has the best “thirty second mind” of anyone he knows:  “Charlie can’t encounter a problem without thinking of an answer. He has the best thirty-second mind I’ve ever seen. I’ll call him up, and within thirty seconds, he’ll grasp it. He just sees things immediately.”

It is often much better to think for twenty-five seconds and speak for five seconds rather than to think for five seconds and speak for twenty-five seconds. At 97, Charlie Munger’s thirty second mind was very evident on Wednesday.


Amsterdam’s Flower Market

I visited Amsterdam in July 2014. Like most tourists, I eventually made my way to the flower market and purchased some tulip bulbs to bring home. Fortunately, tulip prices remain well below the peak level reached in the 17th century.


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Key shipping company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

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The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Key shipping company files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

Published

on

The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Tight inventory and frustrated buyers challenge agents in Virginia

With inventory a little more than half of what it was pre-pandemic, agents are struggling to find homes for clients in Virginia.

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No matter where you are in the state, real estate agents in Virginia are facing low inventory conditions that are creating frustrating scenarios for their buyers.

“I think people are getting used to the interest rates where they are now, but there is just a huge lack of inventory,” said Chelsea Newcomb, a RE/MAX Realty Specialists agent based in Charlottesville. “I have buyers that are looking, but to find a house that you love enough to pay a high price for — and to be at over a 6.5% interest rate — it’s just a little bit harder to find something.”

Newcomb said that interest rates and higher prices, which have risen by more than $100,000 since March 2020, according to data from Altos Research, have caused her clients to be pickier when selecting a home.

“When rates and prices were lower, people were more willing to compromise,” Newcomb said.

Out in Wise, Virginia, near the westernmost tip of the state, RE/MAX Cavaliers agent Brett Tiller and his clients are also struggling to find suitable properties.

“The thing that really stands out, especially compared to two years ago, is the lack of quality listings,” Tiller said. “The slightly more upscale single-family listings for move-up buyers with children looking for their forever home just aren’t coming on the market right now, and demand is still very high.”

Statewide, Virginia had a 90-day average of 8,068 active single-family listings as of March 8, 2024, down from 14,471 single-family listings in early March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Altos Research. That represents a decrease of 44%.

Virginia-Inventory-Line-Chart-Virginia-90-day-Single-Family

In Newcomb’s base metro area of Charlottesville, there were an average of only 277 active single-family listings during the same recent 90-day period, compared to 892 at the onset of the pandemic. In Wise County, there were only 56 listings.

Due to the demand from move-up buyers in Tiller’s area, the average days on market for homes with a median price of roughly $190,000 was just 17 days as of early March 2024.

“For the right home, which is rare to find right now, we are still seeing multiple offers,” Tiller said. “The demand is the same right now as it was during the heart of the pandemic.”

According to Tiller, the tight inventory has caused homebuyers to spend up to six months searching for their new property, roughly double the time it took prior to the pandemic.

For Matt Salway in the Virginia Beach metro area, the tight inventory conditions are creating a rather hot market.

“Depending on where you are in the area, your listing could have 15 offers in two days,” the agent for Iron Valley Real Estate Hampton Roads | Virginia Beach said. “It has been crazy competition for most of Virginia Beach, and Norfolk is pretty hot too, especially for anything under $400,000.”

According to Altos Research, the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News housing market had a seven-day average Market Action Index score of 52.44 as of March 14, making it the seventh hottest housing market in the country. Altos considers any Market Action Index score above 30 to be indicative of a seller’s market.

Virginia-Beach-Metro-Area-Market-Action-Index-Line-Chart-Virginia-Beach-Norfolk-Newport-News-VA-NC-90-day-Single-Family

Further up the coastline on the vacation destination of Chincoteague Island, Long & Foster agent Meghan O. Clarkson is also seeing a decent amount of competition despite higher prices and interest rates.

“People are taking their time to actually come see things now instead of buying site unseen, and occasionally we see some seller concessions, but the traffic and the demand is still there; you might just work a little longer with people because we don’t have anything for sale,” Clarkson said.

“I’m busy and constantly have appointments, but the underlying frenzy from the height of the pandemic has gone away, but I think it is because we have just gotten used to it.”

While much of the demand that Clarkson’s market faces is for vacation homes and from retirees looking for a scenic spot to retire, a large portion of the demand in Salway’s market comes from military personnel and civilians working under government contracts.

“We have over a dozen military bases here, plus a bunch of shipyards, so the closer you get to all of those bases, the easier it is to sell a home and the faster the sale happens,” Salway said.

Due to this, Salway said that existing-home inventory typically does not come on the market unless an employment contract ends or the owner is reassigned to a different base, which is currently contributing to the tight inventory situation in his market.

Things are a bit different for Tiller and Newcomb, who are seeing a decent number of buyers from other, more expensive parts of the state.

“One of the crazy things about Louisa and Goochland, which are kind of like suburbs on the western side of Richmond, is that they are growing like crazy,” Newcomb said. “A lot of people are coming in from Northern Virginia because they can work remotely now.”

With a Market Action Index score of 50, it is easy to see why people are leaving the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria market for the Charlottesville market, which has an index score of 41.

In addition, the 90-day average median list price in Charlottesville is $585,000 compared to $729,900 in the D.C. area, which Newcomb said is also luring many Virginia homebuyers to move further south.

Median-Price-D.C.-vs.-Charlottesville-Line-Chart-90-day-Single-Family

“They are very accustomed to higher prices, so they are super impressed with the prices we offer here in the central Virginia area,” Newcomb said.

For local buyers, Newcomb said this means they are frequently being outbid or outpriced.

“A couple who is local to the area and has been here their whole life, they are just now starting to get their mind wrapped around the fact that you can’t get a house for $200,000 anymore,” Newcomb said.

As the year heads closer to spring, triggering the start of the prime homebuying season, agents in Virginia feel optimistic about the market.

“We are seeing seasonal trends like we did up through 2019,” Clarkson said. “The market kind of soft launched around President’s Day and it is still building, but I expect it to pick right back up and be in full swing by Easter like it always used to.”

But while they are confident in demand, questions still remain about whether there will be enough inventory to support even more homebuyers entering the market.

“I have a lot of buyers starting to come off the sidelines, but in my office, I also have a lot of people who are going to list their house in the next two to three weeks now that the weather is starting to break,” Newcomb said. “I think we are going to have a good spring and summer.”

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