Weekend Daily: What Will Drive the Commodities Market?
Commodities across the board rallied after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and have since declined significantly. Before the War though, commodities were…
Commodities across the board rallied after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and have since declined significantly.
Before the War though, commodities were already enjoying a rally due to results of the pandemic such as supply chain, low production, rising demand, high government debt and labor shortages.
The other significant factor influencing commodity prices is the value of the U.S. dollar. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for foreign buyers, which pushes prices lower.
Right now, the dollar seems to have found a peak. With FOMC on tap, that could change. Assuming a peak has been established, we can also make that a reason for a bigger move in commodities.
So while a short-term correction ensues, commodities could still have massive room to run in the longer term. The Invesco DB Commodity Index Fund is currently near the 50 day moving average suggesting commodity prices have found support and will continue higher.
Next week, there will be lots more earnings on tap plus, we have the FOMC meeting. With expectations of a raise by 75 bps, there has been hints of perhaps .50 bps instead.
Moreover, Powell suggested that this raise at the next meeting could be the end of aggresssive rate hikes in general.
If one follows the logical path we can assume a few things:
Yields remaining around 3% will not impact a 9.1% inflation rate
A weaker dollar will not help reduce inflation
With nary a recession (strong labor, ok housing market) nor economic growth (earnings mixed, reduction in corporate spending) in the near future, stagflation-a word rarely used, is the economic theme
The war in Russia-Ukraine is not ending
Oil supply remains low
China, still somewhat asleep, has yet to emerge hungry for raw materials.
What we did see this past week was a potential bottom in gold and in bitcoin.
Whether we see more rally in the equtities remains to be seen, yet, the rally to resistance certainly supports a stagflation-trading range scenario.
This coming week, watch a few key indicators.
First, watch the yields and the high grade plus high yield bonds.
Secondly, watch the consumer discretionary sectors. We need to see the consumers stay in the game.
Watch the dollar and the gold market-if gold continues to hold the major multiyear support, then we see a big gold rally coming.
Finally, watch the oil and energy market. Should crude oil join natural gas in a new bull run-commodities will soar while equities will suffer.
Investing in commodities can be a speculative bet on future price movements or a way to hedge against other investments in one's portfolio. Energy commodities, for example, may be used as a hedge against inflation.
Adding commodities to a larger balanced portfolio can also help reduce risks as commodity prices tend to have low correlation to other assets such as stocks and bonds.
Commodities provide valuable diversification and enhanced risk-adjusted returns to a portfolio, but active management is needed, due to volatile price swings.
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Mish in the Media
In this appearance on BNN Bloomberg, Mish explains why commodities could have a second run higher, and what we can expect from the equities market.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) made at least 25 statistical or numerical errors during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the overwhelming majority exaggerated the severity of the pandemic, according to a new study.
Researchers who have been tracking CDC errors compiled 25 instances where the agency offered demonstrably false information. For each instance, they analyzed whether the error exaggerated or downplayed the severity of COVID-19.
Of the 25 instances, 20 exaggerated the severity, the researchers reported in the study, which was published ahead of peer review on March 23.
“The CDC has expressed significant concern about COVID-19 misinformation. In order for the CDC to be a credible source of information, they must improve the accuracy of the data they provide,” the authors wrote.
The CDC did not respond to a request for comment.
Most Errors Involved Children
Most of the errors were about COVID-19’s impact on children.
In mid-2021, for instance, the CDC claimed that 4 percent of the deaths attributed to COVID-19 were kids. The actual percentage was 0.04 percent. The CDC eventually corrected the misinformation, months after being alerted to the issue.
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky falsely told a White House press briefing in October 2021 that there had been 745 COVID-19 deaths in children, but the actual number, based on CDC death certificate analysis, was 558.
Walensky and other CDC officials also falsely said in 2022 that COVID-19 was a top five cause of death for children, citing a study that gathered CDC data instead of looking at the data directly. The officials have not corrected the false claims.
Other errors include the CDC claiming in 2022 that pediatric COVID-19 hospitalizations were “increasing again” when they’d actually peaked two weeks earlier; CDC officials in 2023 including deaths among infants younger than 6 months old when reporting COVID-19 deaths among children; and Walensky on Feb. 9, 2023, exaggerating the pediatric death toll before Congress.
“These errors suggest the CDC consistently exaggerates the impact of COVID-19 on children,” the authors of the study said.
The company has a novel way to end a practice that passengers hate.
Southwest Airlines boards its planes in a way very different from that of any of its major rivals.
As fans and detractors of the brand know, the airline does not offer seat assignments. Instead, passengers board by group and number. When you check into your flight, Southwest assigns you to the A, B, or C boarding groups and gives you a number 1-60. The A group boards first in numerical order.
In theory, people board in the assigned order and can claim any seat that's available. In practice, the airline's boarding process leaves a lot of gray area that some people exploit. Others simply don't know exactly what the rules are.
If, for example, you are traveling with a friend who has a much later boarding number, is it okay to save a middle seat for that person?
Generally, that's okay because middle seats are less desirable, but technically it's not allowed. In general practice, if you move into the second half of the plane, no passenger will fight for a specific middle seat, but toward the front some may claim a middle seat.
There's less grey area, however, when it comes to trying to keep people from sitting in unoccupied seats. That's a huge problem for the airline, one that Southwest has tried to address in a humorous way.
A Southwest Airlines plane is in the air.
Image source: Shutterstock
Southwest Airlines Has a Boarding Problem
When Southwest boards its flights it generally communicates to passengers about how full it expects the plane to be. In very rare cases, the airline will tell passengers when the crowd is small and they can expect that nobody will have to sit in a middle seat.
In most cases, however, at least since air travel has recovered after the covid pandemic, the airline usually announces that the flight is full or nearly full as passengers board. That's a de facto (and sometimes explicit) call not to attempt to discourage people from taking open seats in your row.
Unfortunately, many passengers know that sometimes when the airline says a flight is full, that's not entirely true. There might be a few no shows or a few seats that end up being open for one reason or another.
That leads to passengers -- at least a few of them on nearly every flight -- going to great lengths to try to end up next to an empty seat. Southwest has tried lots of different ways to discourage this behavior and has now resorted to humor in an effort to stop the seat hogs.
Southwest Uses Humor to Address a Pain Point
The airline recently released a video that addressed what it called "discouraged but crafty strategies to get a row to yourself" on Southwest. The video shows a man demonstrating all the different ways people try to dissuade other passengers from taking the open seats in their row.
These include, but are not limited to:
Laying out across the whole row.
Holding your arm up to sort of block the seats.
Being too encouraging about someone taking the seat.
Actually saying no when someone asks if they can have an open seat.
The airline also detailed a scenario it called "the fake breakup," where the person in the seat holds a loud phone conversation where he pretends he's being broken up with.
That one seems a bit of a reach, especially when Southwest left the most common seat-saving tactic out of its video -- simply putting some of your stuff in the open seat to make it appear unavailable.
WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. – March 24, 2023 – Researchers at Wake Forest University School of Medicine have been awarded a five-year, $7.5 million grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Helping End Addiction Long-term (HEAL) initiative.
Credit: Wake Forest University School of Medicine
WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. – March 24, 2023 – Researchers at Wake Forest University School of Medicine have been awarded a five-year, $7.5 million grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Helping End Addiction Long-term (HEAL) initiative.
The NIH HEAL initiative, which launched in 2018, was created to find scientific solutions to stem the national opioid and pain public health crises. The funding is part of the HEAL Data 2 Action (HD2A) program, designed to use real-time data to guide actions and change processes toward reducing overdoses and improving opioid use disorder treatment and pain management.
With the support of the grant, researchers will create a data infrastructure support center to assist HD2A innovation projects at other institutions across the country. These innovation projects are designed to address gaps in four areas—prevention, harm reduction, treatment of opioid use disorder and recovery support.
“Our center’s goal is to remove barriers so that solutions can be more streamlined and rapidly distributed,” said Meredith C.B. Adams, M.D., associate professor of anesthesiology, biomedical informatics, physiology and pharmacology, and public health sciences at Wake Forest University School of Medicine.
By monitoring opioid overdoses in real time, researchers will be able to identify trends and gaps in resources in local communities where services are most needed.
“We will collect and analyze data that will inform prevention and treatment services,” Adams said. “We’re shifting chronic pain and opioid care in communities to quickly offer solutions.”
The center will also develop data related resources, education and training related to substance use, pain management and the reduction of opioid overdoses.
According to the CDC, there was a 29% increase in drug overdose deaths in the U.S. in 2020, and nearly 75% of those deaths involved an opioid.
“Given the scope of the opioid crises, which was only exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s imperative that we improve and create new prevention strategies,” Adams said. “The funding will create the infrastructure for rapid intervention.”
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