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Week Ahead – Will the bond market remain in a holding pattern?

Financial markets seem to be constantly recalibrating.  The economic data is expected to be volatile and that should support the Fed’s patient stance on waiting for enough data to make a clear assessment over pricing pressures and the strength of the…

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Financial markets seem to be constantly recalibrating.  The economic data is expected to be volatile and that should support the Fed’s patient stance on waiting for enough data to make a clear assessment over pricing pressures and the strength of the labor market recovery.

Inflation expectations are weighing on sentiment, but Treasury yields seem like they may be stuck in a holding pattern a little while longer.   The front end of the curve is not moving and since expectations are so high for the US economic recovery, the bond market is still mostly counting on disinflationary forces to win out.

The focus for the upcoming is heavily tilted to the Fed.  The Fed’s April meeting minutes will be released and could provide some clarity over their inflation expectations.  Investors will closely listen to the Fed’s Clarida, Bostic, Kaplan, Bullard, and Barkin.  Key economic releases include a round of housing data, a couple of Fed regional surveys, jobless claims and the flash PMI estimates.

Fed Minutes in focus along with a wrath of speeches

China’s recovery to continue into Q2

Latest UK inflation report to show prices spiked higher

Country

US

Traders will overanalyze the Fed’s April meeting minutes to see how upbeat Fed officials have become and if they provide any hints on how to define “transitory” when it comes to inflation.  The minutes however are very dated and predate both the disappointing nonfarm payroll report and hotter than expected CPI and PPI readings.

It is a busy week filled with economic releases.  On Monday, the first regional Fed survey from the Empire State is expected to show manufacturing softened slightly.  Tuesday could show a cooling housing market with a slight dip with housing starts and a modest increase in building permits.  Wednesday is all about the FOMC Minutes, while Thursday focuses on weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed Business Outlook which should remain strong but at a softer pace than last month.  Friday will provide the May flash PMI readings, which should post minimal improvements in both the manufacturing and services sectors.

The reopening of the US economy is going to enter another gear as most capacity restrictions will be eased across much of the country.

EU

On Wednesday, the Eurozone releases Final CPI for April. On an annualized basis, the forecast for headline CPI stands at 1.6%, which is comfortably close to the ECB’s at below but close 2% target.

On Thursday, there are a number of panels with speakers from European central banks. ECB President Lagarde, Governing Council member Holzmann and IMF Managing Director Georgieva speak at a conference on “Gender, Money and Finance,” hosted by the Austrian National Bank.

On Friday, Eurozone finance ministers and central bank chiefs hold an informal meeting. This will be followed on Saturday with a meeting of a larger group of EU finance ministers and central bank chiefs. Italy and the European Commission co-host the G-20 Global Health Summit in Rome.

Also on Friday, there is a dump of eurozone data. German Manufacturing PMI for May is expected to dip to 66.0, down from 66.2. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is also expected to slow to 62.3, down from 62.9. The 50-level separates contraction from expansion.

German consumer confidence remains in negative territory. The May estimate stands at -7.5, which would be a slight improvement from the April read of -8.1 points.

UK

On Monday, the U.K. government will proceed to phase three in easing the lockdown restrictions as part of the “roadmap” to recovery. The new rules will allow for both outdoor and indoor gatherings. Most businesses will be allowed to reopen, with the exception of those in high-risk sectors. International travel will be allowed to a “green list of countries”, and travelers will not need to quarantine upon return.

On Tuesday, the UK releases unemployment claims and ILO unemployment.  This will be followed with a hot inflation report for the month of April on Wednesday, with a consensus of 0.6% (MoM) and 1.5% (YoY). On Friday, the UK releases Retail Sales data for April and the May Flash PMI readings.  Retail sales on a monthly basis is expected to soften, while the flash PMI estimates should remain robust.

Emerging Markets

Hungary

The Hungary Central Bank will announce a rate decision on Tuesday. No change is expected to the current rate of 0.60%, with the bank waiting on any rate hikes.

Hungary’s inflation remains a key concern, as inflation was the fastest in Europe and the highest since 2012. At the same time, core inflation was much more stable, with a rise of only 3% in April, which was the lowest since 2019. Central bank policymakers are in a wait-and-see mode, with the bank forecasting that the rise in inflation will temporarily peak at around April’s levels before slowing to within the 2%-4% tolerance range in the summer.

Money-market traders raised bets for a rate hike in the next three months only slightly after the data was published, still broadly expecting an increase of about 15 basis points via the central bank’s most-influential one-week deposit rate.

South Africa

South Africa releases the April inflation report on Wednesday. CPI (YoY) is expected to rise to 4.3%, up from 3.2% beforehand. This would still be below the 4.5% midpoint of the Reserve Bank’s target range for inflation.

The Reserve Bank meets on Thursday and is expected to maintain interest rates at 3.50%. Inflation has been rising and the bank could hike rates in this quarter.

China

China releases Industrial Production and Retail Sales on Tuesday. Both should show impressive, but slowing increases after a post Lunar New Year March rebound. Lowball prints may take some of the heat out of the international inflation story, which counterintuitively, could be supportive of Asian equities.

China’s 1 and 5-year Loan Prime Rates are announced on Thursday. It would be a huge surprise if they were hiked and would likely provoke an immediate regional Asia equity and currency sell-off. Q4 remains the most likely window for hiking.

Both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 look fragile, but have shown remarkable resilience this past week as equity markets cratered elsewhere. Regulatory threats on China big-tech continue to cap gains, but it is clear that China’s “national team” remain on the bid on any negative price move. If they step aside, the fall could be quite aggressive.

India

India’s Covid-19 disaster continues to grab headlines and although cases remain above 400,000 per day with that reality, and a spike in US inflation finally taking the wind from international investor sails. Equities and the Rupee have stopped rising although both remain near to recent highs. The INR should remain supported as Covid-19 crushes domestic consumption meaning oil importers need to buy less US Dollars.

India releases very important WPI data on Tuesday, with a return to stagflation very much on the cards. Headline WPI inflation printing above 9.0% YoY for April is likely to provoke selling of INdian equities and the INR again, with the central bank powerless to raise rates at this time.

Conversely, any signs that India’s Covid-19 tragedy is easing is likely to see a lot of fast money pile into both for a buy the dip recovery trade.

Australia & New Zealand

No significant data from New Zealand. Australia releases RBA minutes on Tuesday where markets will be looking for dissension among policy makers on tapering. Employment on Thursday will struggle to overcome March’s blockbuster 91,500 headline. Australian data continues to be consistently strong and another big number will be a short-term boost to equities and the AUD.

As global risk-sentiment barometers and Asian currency proxies, the AUD and NZD have endured a torrid week as inflation fears finally washed over global markets. Both currencies are nearing important support and could fall another 200 points next week if risk sentiment remains weak. Both are completely at the mercy of moves in the US Dollar, mostly in the New York timezone, as they have been this past week.

Japan

Japan adds more provinces to its Covid-19 states of emergency, a theme we are now seeing recurring all over Asia. Japanese investors are clearly nervous as they have aggressively hitched their wagon following the volatility of the Nasdaq this week. I expect that to continue next week and if the inflation story torpedoes the Nasdaq, the Nikkei will follow. The Nikkei 225 broke multi-month support going back to January, at 28,300 this week, and needs to recapture this level quickly, otherwise it will target 26,000 initially. A selloff in New York next week could see the Nikkei target arrive sooner than expected.

Japan releases GDP on Tuesday for Q1, Industrial Production on Wednesday and the Tankan Survey and Balance of Trade on Thursday. Only a surprise on IP is likely to move local markets which are myopically focused on US markets and dominated by nervous retail flows.

The widening of the US/Japan 10-year rate differential should see USD/JPY  rise above 110.00 in the coming week.

Markets

Oil

Crude prices are seesawing as energy markets wait to see how bad of an impact will fresh lockdowns across Asia have on the demand outlook.  Fresh lockdowns across Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore will make it difficult to be optimistic about demand over the next month.  The situation in India remains center stage and while they appear to be nearing their peak, the end still seems to be very far away.

In the US, the restart of the Colonial Pipeline should lead to a gradual improvement with fuel shortages across the East Coast. Expectations are that the pipeline will be back to normal within two weeks.

Expectations remains for oil to trade rangebound as markets await an uneven reopening of the global economy.   Geopolitical risks across the Middle East and poorer OPEC+ compliance could trigger some volatility in the short-term, but prices seem fairly anchored here.

Gold

Gold could continue to rally if the Fed officials continue to downplay the rising price pressures as temporary.  If Wall Street begins to believe the Fed that they will remain lower-for-longer with interest rates, the dollar should remain vulnerable and that should be positive for gold prices.

The biggest risk for gold remains when the Fed will have to talk about tapering asset purchases.  The eventual taper tantrum could happen by the end of summer, but for now investors do not want to try to get ahead of that trade.

Bitcoin

Cryptocurrency traders are not sure what to make with the sudden focus on improving the efficiency of transactions.  The increased use of fossil fuels for Bitcoin mining is not a new revelation but seems to be a critical focal point now that needs to be addressed before Corporate America can continue to embrace cryptos.

Chaos over Dogecoin will dominate headlines and seems to continue to drive attention away from both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Crypto exchanges and companies are under the microscope now and crypto traders should expect to hear more from US regulators.  SEC Chairman Gensler will continue to focus on improving investor protections and providing regulatory clarity.

Key Economic Events

Saturday, May 15

-The US National Hurricane Center starts delivering advisories in the Atlantic, two weeks before the official start of the hurricane season.

Sunday, May 16

– None

Monday, May 17

– 13F Filings: Hedge Funds with more than $100 million of US stocks disclose their holdings

-Fed Vice Chair Clarida and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will have a chat at the Atlanta Fed’s annual Financial Markets Conference.

-French President Macron hosts the Paris Peace Forum Spring meeting

Economic Data:

  • US May Empire manufacturing: 23.9e v 26.3 prior; TIC Flows
  • UK Rightmove house prices
  • China retail sales, industrial production, jobless rate
  • Canada housing starts
  • Italy CPI
  • Poland CPI
  • Russia GDP
  • Thailand GDP
  • Japan PPI, machine tool orders
  • Singapore electronic exports, non-oil domestic exports
  • Czech PPI
  • Turkey budget balance

Tuesday, May 18

– Dallas Fed President Kaplan speaks in a panel discussion moderated by Atlanta Fed’s Bostic, during his bank’s annual Financial Markets Conference.

– French President Macron hosts the Summit on Financing African Economies, in Paris. Italian PM Draghi and European Commission President von der Leyen will also speak.

– Sweden’s Riksbank Deputy Governor Ohlsson speaks on “How to heal a divided labor market after the Covid pandemic.”

Economic Data:

  • US housing starts, building permits
  • Eurozone Q1 Preliminary GDP
  • UK jobless claims, ILO unemployment
  • Hungary GDP
  • Japan tertiary industry index
  • Japan GDP
  • Italy trade balance
  • Australia ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence, RBA minutes of May policy meeting
  • New Zealand non resident bond holdings
  • Netherlands consumer spending

Wednesday, May 19

-ECB Executive Board member Panetta and Governing Council member Rehn speak at the Finnish Payments Forum.

– ECB Chief Economist Lane speaks at the Dublin Climate Dialogues.

-The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum holds a fireside chat with St. Louis Fed President Bullard.

– Atlanta Fed President Bostic is interviewed during a Businessweek/Bloomberg Live event.

– President Biden speaks at the US Coast Guard Academy commencement in Connecticut.

Economic Data/Events:

  • FOMC minutes
  • ECB Financial Stability Review published
  • Australia Westpac consumer confidence, wage price index
  • Canada CPI
  • Eurozone CPI
  • UK CPI
  • South Africa CPI
  • New Zealand PPI
  • Japan industrial production, capacity utilization
  • Russia industrial production
  • Singapore GDP
  • South Africa retail sales
  • EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report

Thursday, May 20

-U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo holds a summit to discuss the global semiconductor shortage. Google, Amazon, Samsung and TSMC may attend.

-IMF Managing Director Georgieva and ECB President Lagarde speak at the Vienna Economic Dialogue.

-ECB President Lagarde, Governing Council member Holzmann and IMF Managing Director Georgieva speak at a conference on “Gender, Money and Finance.”

-ECB Chief Economist Lane and Eurogroup President Donohoe speaks in a webinar discussion on Europe and the global economy.

– Riksbank First Deputy Governor Skingsley speaks at a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken event.

– Riksbank Deputy Governor Breman participates in a panel

-Bank of Canada Governor Macklem holds a press conference to discuss the contents of the Bank’s Review

– Debate with three candidates to become next German Chancellor

Economic Data:

  • US initial jobless claims, leading index
  • Australia unemployment rate, employment change
  • Japan trade balance, core machine orders
  • China loan prime rates
  • South Africa Rate Decision: Expected to keep rates steady at 3.50%
  • Hungary Central Bank Rate Decision: Expected to keep one-week deposit rate unchanged at 0.75%

Friday, May 21

– President Biden meets South Korean President Moon Jae-in at the White House

– Fed Presidents Bostic (Atlanta), Kaplan (Dallas) and Barkin (Richmond) to speak at the Dallas Fed Technology Conference.

– Euro-area finance ministers and central bank chiefs meet. A larger group of EU finance ministers and central bank chiefs will meet May 22.

-Italy and the European Commission co-host the G-20 Global Health Summit in Rome.

Economic Data:

  • US May Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 60.8e v 60.5 prior; Apr Existing home sales: 6.06Me v 6.01M prior
  • Eurozone Flash PMI readings, Consumer confidence
  • UK Manufacturing PMI
  • UK Retail Sales
  • Australia Manufacturing PMI, Retail Sales
  • Mexico Retail Sales
  • New Zealand credit card spending
  • Thailand trade, foreign reserves
  • Japan CPI, PMI data
  • Baker Hughes rig count

Sovereign Rating Updates:

– Switzerland (Fitch)

– South Africa (S&P)

– Greece (Moody’s)

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Vaccine-skeptical mothers say bad health care experiences made them distrust the medical system

Vaccine skepticism, and the broader medical mistrust and far-reaching anxieties it reflects, is not just a fringe position in the 21st century.

Women's own negative medical experiences influence their vaccine decisions for their kids. AP Photo/Ted S. Warren

Why would a mother reject safe, potentially lifesaving vaccines for her child?

Popular writing on vaccine skepticism often denigrates white and middle-class mothers who reject some or all recommended vaccines as hysterical, misinformed, zealous or ignorant. Mainstream media and medical providers increasingly dismiss vaccine refusal as a hallmark of American fringe ideology, far-right radicalization or anti-intellectualism.

But vaccine skepticism, and the broader medical mistrust and far-reaching anxieties it reflects, is not just a fringe position.

Pediatric vaccination rates had already fallen sharply before the COVID-19 pandemic, ushering in the return of measles, mumps and chickenpox to the U.S. in 2019. Four years after the pandemic’s onset, a growing number of Americans doubt the safety, efficacy and necessity of routine vaccines. Childhood vaccination rates have declined substantially across the U.S., which public health officials attribute to a “spillover” effect from pandemic-related vaccine skepticism and blame for the recent measles outbreak. Almost half of American mothers rated the risk of side effects from the MMR vaccine as medium or high in a 2023 survey by Pew Research.

Recommended vaccines go through rigorous testing and evaluation, and the most infamous charges of vaccine-induced injury have been thoroughly debunked. How do so many mothers – primary caregivers and health care decision-makers for their families – become wary of U.S. health care and one of its most proven preventive technologies?

I’m a cultural anthropologist who studies the ways feelings and beliefs circulate in American society. To investigate what’s behind mothers’ vaccine skepticism, I interviewed vaccine-skeptical mothers about their perceptions of existing and novel vaccines. What they told me complicates sweeping and overly simplified portrayals of their misgivings by pointing to the U.S. health care system itself. The medical system’s failures and harms against women gave rise to their pervasive vaccine skepticism and generalized medical mistrust.

The seeds of women’s skepticism

I conducted this ethnographic research in Oregon from 2020 to 2021 with predominantly white mothers between the ages of 25 and 60. My findings reveal new insights about the origins of vaccine skepticism among this demographic. These women traced their distrust of vaccines, and of U.S. health care more generally, to ongoing and repeated instances of medical harm they experienced from childhood through childbirth.

girl sitting on exam table faces a doctor viewer can see from behind
A woman’s own childhood mistreatment by a doctor can shape her health care decisions for the next generation. FatCamera/E+ via Getty Images

As young girls in medical offices, they were touched without consent, yelled at, disbelieved or threatened. One mother, Susan, recalled her pediatrician abruptly lying her down and performing a rectal exam without her consent at the age of 12. Another mother, Luna, shared how a pediatrician once threatened to have her institutionalized when she voiced anxiety at a routine physical.

As women giving birth, they often felt managed, pressured or discounted. One mother, Meryl, told me, “I felt like I was coerced under distress into Pitocin and induction” during labor. Another mother, Hallie, shared, “I really battled with my provider” throughout the childbirth experience.

Together with the convoluted bureaucracy of for-profit health care, experiences of medical harm contributed to “one million little touch points of information,” in one mother’s phrase, that underscored the untrustworthiness and harmful effects of U.S. health care writ large.

A system that doesn’t serve them

Many mothers I interviewed rejected the premise that public health entities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration had their children’s best interests at heart. Instead, they tied childhood vaccination and the more recent development of COVID-19 vaccines to a bloated pharmaceutical industry and for-profit health care model. As one mother explained, “The FDA is not looking out for our health. They’re looking out for their wealth.”

After ongoing negative medical encounters, the women I interviewed lost trust not only in providers but the medical system. Frustrating experiences prompted them to “do their own research” in the name of bodily autonomy. Such research often included books, articles and podcasts deeply critical of vaccines, public health care and drug companies.

These materials, which have proliferated since 2020, cast light on past vaccine trials gone awry, broader histories of medical harm and abuse, the rapid growth of the recommended vaccine schedule in the late 20th century and the massive profits reaped from drug development and for-profit health care. They confirmed and hardened women’s suspicions about U.S. health care.

hands point to a handwritten vaccination record
The number of recommended childhood vaccines has increased over time. Mike Adaskaveg/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald via Getty Images

The stories these women told me add nuance to existing academic research into vaccine skepticism. Most studies have considered vaccine skepticism among primarily white and middle-class parents to be an outgrowth of today’s neoliberal parenting and intensive mothering. Researchers have theorized vaccine skepticism among white and well-off mothers to be an outcome of consumer health care and its emphasis on individual choice and risk reduction. Other researchers highlight vaccine skepticism as a collective identity that can provide mothers with a sense of belonging.

Seeing medical care as a threat to health

The perceptions mothers shared are far from isolated or fringe, and they are not unreasonable. Rather, they represent a growing population of Americans who hold the pervasive belief that U.S. health care harms more than it helps.

Data suggests that the number of Americans harmed in the course of treatment remains high, with incidents of medical error in the U.S. outnumbering those in peer countries, despite more money being spent per capita on health care. One 2023 study found that diagnostic error, one kind of medical error, accounted for 371,000 deaths and 424,000 permanent disabilities among Americans every year.

Studies reveal particularly high rates of medical error in the treatment of vulnerable communities, including women, people of color, disabled, poor, LGBTQ+ and gender-nonconforming individuals and the elderly. The number of U.S. women who have died because of pregnancy-related causes has increased substantially in recent years, with maternal death rates doubling between 1999 and 2019.

The prevalence of medical harm points to the relevance of philosopher Ivan Illich’s manifesto against the “disease of medical progress.” In his 1982 book “Medical Nemesis,” he insisted that rather than being incidental, harm flows inevitably from the structure of institutionalized and for-profit health care itself. Illich wrote, “The medical establishment has become a major threat to health,” and has created its own “epidemic” of iatrogenic illness – that is, illness caused by a physician or the health care system itself.

Four decades later, medical mistrust among Americans remains alarmingly high. Only 23% of Americans express high confidence in the medical system. The United States ranks 24th out of 29 peer high-income countries for the level of public trust in medical providers.

For people like the mothers I interviewed, who have experienced real or perceived harm at the hands of medical providers; have felt belittled, dismissed or disbelieved in a doctor’s office; or spent countless hours fighting to pay for, understand or use health benefits, skepticism and distrust are rational responses to lived experience. These attitudes do not emerge solely from ignorance, conspiracy thinking, far-right extremism or hysteria, but rather the historical and ongoing harms endemic to the U.S. health care system itself.

Johanna Richlin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Is the National Guard a solution to school violence?

School board members in one Massachusetts district have called for the National Guard to address student misbehavior. Does their request have merit? A…

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Every now and then, an elected official will suggest bringing in the National Guard to deal with violence that seems out of control.

A city council member in Washington suggested doing so in 2023 to combat the city’s rising violence. So did a Pennsylvania representative concerned about violence in Philadelphia in 2022.

In February 2024, officials in Massachusetts requested the National Guard be deployed to a more unexpected location – to a high school.

Brockton High School has been struggling with student fights, drug use and disrespect toward staff. One school staffer said she was trampled by a crowd rushing to see a fight. Many teachers call in sick to work each day, leaving the school understaffed.

As a researcher who studies school discipline, I know Brockton’s situation is part of a national trend of principals and teachers who have been struggling to deal with perceived increases in student misbehavior since the pandemic.

A review of how the National Guard has been deployed to schools in the past shows the guard can provide service to schools in cases of exceptional need. Yet, doing so does not always end well.

How have schools used the National Guard before?

In 1957, the National Guard blocked nine Black students’ attempts to desegregate Central High School in Little Rock, Arkansas. While the governor claimed this was for safety, the National Guard effectively delayed desegregation of the school – as did the mobs of white individuals outside. Ironically, weeks later, the National Guard and the U.S. Army would enforce integration and the safety of the “Little Rock Nine” on orders from President Dwight Eisenhower.

Three men from the mob around Little Rock’s Central High School are driven from the area at bayonet-point by soldiers of the 101st Airborne Division on Sept. 25, 1957. The presence of the troops permitted the nine Black students to enter the school with only minor background incidents. Bettmann via Getty Images

One of the most tragic cases of the National Guard in an educational setting came in 1970 at Kent State University. The National Guard was brought to campus to respond to protests over American involvement in the Vietnam War. The guardsmen fatally shot four students.

In 2012, then-Sen. Barbara Boxer, a Democrat from California, proposed funding to use the National Guard to provide school security in the wake of the Sandy Hook school shooting. The bill was not passed.

More recently, the National Guard filled teacher shortages in New Mexico’s K-12 schools during the quarantines and sickness of the pandemic. While the idea did not catch on nationally, teachers and school personnel in New Mexico generally reported positive experiences.

Can the National Guard address school discipline?

The National Guard’s mission includes responding to domestic emergencies. Members of the guard are part-time service members who maintain civilian lives. Some are students themselves in colleges and universities. Does this mission and training position the National Guard to respond to incidents of student misbehavior and school violence?

On the one hand, New Mexico’s pandemic experience shows the National Guard could be a stopgap to staffing shortages in unusual circumstances. Similarly, the guards’ eventual role in ensuring student safety during school desegregation in Arkansas demonstrates their potential to address exceptional cases in schools, such as racially motivated mob violence. And, of course, many schools have had military personnel teaching and mentoring through Junior ROTC programs for years.

Those seeking to bring the National Guard to Brockton High School have made similar arguments. They note that staffing shortages have contributed to behavior problems.

One school board member stated: “I know that the first thought that comes to mind when you hear ‘National Guard’ is uniform and arms, and that’s not the case. They’re people like us. They’re educated. They’re trained, and we just need their assistance right now. … We need more staff to support our staff and help the students learn (and) have a safe environment.”

Yet, there are reasons to question whether calls for the National Guard are the best way to address school misconduct and behavior. First, the National Guard is a temporary measure that does little to address the underlying causes of student misbehavior and school violence.

Research has shown that students benefit from effective teaching, meaningful and sustained relationships with school personnel and positive school environments. Such educative and supportive environments have been linked to safer schools. National Guard members are not trained as educators or counselors and, as a temporary measure, would not remain in the school to establish durable relationships with students.

What is more, a military presence – particularly if uniformed or armed – may make students feel less welcome at school or escalate situations.

Schools have already seen an increase in militarization. For example, school police departments have gone so far as to acquire grenade launchers and mine-resistant armored vehicles.

Research has found that school police make students more likely to be suspended and to be arrested. Similarly, while a National Guard presence may address misbehavior temporarily, their presence could similarly result in students experiencing punitive or exclusionary responses to behavior.

Students deserve a solution other than the guard

School violence and disruptions are serious problems that can harm students. Unfortunately, schools and educators have increasingly viewed student misbehavior as a problem to be dealt with through suspensions and police involvement.

A number of people – from the NAACP to the local mayor and other members of the school board – have criticized Brockton’s request for the National Guard. Governor Maura Healey has said she will not deploy the guard to the school.

However, the case of Brockton High School points to real needs. Educators there, like in other schools nationally, are facing a tough situation and perceive a lack of support and resources.

Many schools need more teachers and staff. Students need access to mentors and counselors. With these resources, schools can better ensure educators are able to do their jobs without military intervention.

F. Chris Curran has received funding from the US Department of Justice, the Bureau of Justice Assistance, and the American Civil Liberties Union for work on school safety and discipline.

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Chinese migration to US is nothing new – but the reasons for recent surge at Southern border are

A gloomier economic outlook in China and tightening state control have combined with the influence of social media in encouraging migration.

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Chinese migrants wait for a boat after having walked across the Darien Gap from Colombia to Panama. AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko

The brief closure of the Darien Gap – a perilous 66-mile jungle journey linking South American and Central America – in February 2024 temporarily halted one of the Western Hemisphere’s busiest migration routes. It also highlighted its importance to a small but growing group of people that depend on that pass to make it to the U.S.: Chinese migrants.

While a record 2.5 million migrants were detained at the United States’ southwestern land border in 2023, only about 37,000 were from China.

I’m a scholar of migration and China. What I find most remarkable in these figures is the speed with which the number of Chinese migrants is growing. Nearly 10 times as many Chinese migrants crossed the southern border in 2023 as in 2022. In December 2023 alone, U.S. Border Patrol officials reported encounters with about 6,000 Chinese migrants, in contrast to the 900 they reported a year earlier in December 2022.

The dramatic uptick is the result of a confluence of factors that range from a slowing Chinese economy and tightening political control by President Xi Jinping to the easy access to online information on Chinese social media about how to make the trip.

Middle-class migrants

Journalists reporting from the border have generalized that Chinese migrants come largely from the self-employed middle class. They are not rich enough to use education or work opportunities as a means of entry, but they can afford to fly across the world.

According to a report from Reuters, in many cases those attempting to make the crossing are small-business owners who saw irreparable damage to their primary or sole source of income due to China’s “zero COVID” policies. The migrants are women, men and, in some cases, children accompanying parents from all over China.

Chinese nationals have long made the journey to the United States seeking economic opportunity or political freedom. Based on recent media interviews with migrants coming by way of South America and the U.S.’s southern border, the increase in numbers seems driven by two factors.

First, the most common path for immigration for Chinese nationals is through a student visa or H1-B visa for skilled workers. But travel restrictions during the early months of the pandemic temporarily stalled migration from China. Immigrant visas are out of reach for many Chinese nationals without family or vocation-based preferences, and tourist visas require a personal interview with a U.S. consulate to gauge the likelihood of the traveler returning to China.

Social media tutorials

Second, with the legal routes for immigration difficult to follow, social media accounts have outlined alternatives for Chinese who feel an urgent need to emigrate. Accounts on Douyin, the TikTok clone available in mainland China, document locations open for visa-free travel by Chinese passport holders. On TikTok itself, migrants could find information on where to cross the border, as well as information about transportation and smugglers, commonly known as “snakeheads,” who are experienced with bringing migrants on the journey north.

With virtual private networks, immigrants can also gather information from U.S. apps such as X, YouTube, Facebook and other sites that are otherwise blocked by Chinese censors.

Inspired by social media posts that both offer practical guides and celebrate the journey, thousands of Chinese migrants have been flying to Ecuador, which allows visa-free travel for Chinese citizens, and then making their way over land to the U.S.-Mexican border.

This journey involves trekking through the Darien Gap, which despite its notoriety as a dangerous crossing has become an increasingly common route for migrants from Venezuela, Colombia and all over the world.

In addition to information about crossing the Darien Gap, these social media posts highlight the best places to cross the border. This has led to a large share of Chinese asylum seekers following the same path to Mexico’s Baja California to cross the border near San Diego.

Chinese migration to US is nothing new

The rapid increase in numbers and the ease of accessing information via social media on their smartphones are new innovations. But there is a longer history of Chinese migration to the U.S. over the southern border – and at the hands of smugglers.

From 1882 to 1943, the United States banned all immigration by male Chinese laborers and most Chinese women. A combination of economic competition and racist concerns about Chinese culture and assimilability ensured that the Chinese would be the first ethnic group to enter the United States illegally.

With legal options for arrival eliminated, some Chinese migrants took advantage of the relative ease of movement between the U.S. and Mexico during those years. While some migrants adopted Mexican names and spoke enough Spanish to pass as migrant workers, others used borrowed identities or paperwork from Chinese people with a right of entry, like U.S.-born citizens. Similarly to what we are seeing today, it was middle- and working-class Chinese who more frequently turned to illegal means. Those with money and education were able to circumvent the law by arriving as students or members of the merchant class, both exceptions to the exclusion law.

Though these Chinese exclusion laws officially ended in 1943, restrictions on migration from Asia continued until Congress revised U.S. immigration law in the Hart-Celler Act in 1965. New priorities for immigrant visas that stressed vocational skills as well as family reunification, alongside then Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s policies of “reform and opening,” helped many Chinese migrants make their way legally to the U.S. in the 1980s and 1990s.

Even after the restrictive immigration laws ended, Chinese migrants without the education or family connections often needed for U.S. visas continued to take dangerous routes with the help of “snakeheads.”

One notorious incident occurred in 1993, when a ship called the Golden Venture ran aground near New York, resulting in the drowning deaths of 10 Chinese migrants and the arrest and conviction of the snakeheads attempting to smuggle hundreds of Chinese migrants into the United States.

Existing tensions

Though there is plenty of precedent for Chinese migrants arriving without documentation, Chinese asylum seekers have better odds of success than many of the other migrants making the dangerous journey north.

An estimated 55% of Chinese asylum seekers are successful in making their claims, often citing political oppression and lack of religious freedom in China as motivations. By contrast, only 29% of Venezuelans seeking asylum in the U.S. have their claim granted, and the number is even lower for Colombians, at 19%.

The new halt on the migratory highway from the south has affected thousands of new migrants seeking refuge in the U.S. But the mix of push factors from their home country and encouragement on social media means that Chinese migrants will continue to seek routes to America.

And with both migration and the perceived threat from China likely to be features of the upcoming U.S. election, there is a risk that increased Chinese migration could become politicized, leaning further into existing tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Meredith Oyen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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