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Week Ahead – Rate hikes keep coming

Will a recession follow? It’s been a slow start to the month in financial markets but the ECB rate decision on Thursday finally got things moving and…

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Will a recession follow?

It’s been a slow start to the month in financial markets but the ECB rate decision on Thursday finally got things moving and the US inflation data on Friday kept it going into the weekend. With so much to look forward to next week, it’s going to get really interesting.

The Fed rate decision on Wednesday is naturally the highlight, as traders look for further indications of the level of tightening that’s going to be required and whether it will ultimately tip the economy into recession. The inflation data did not make for good reading for policymakers.

The BoE is expected to raise rates on Thursday but could it be tempted to go super-sized like many of its peers? Markets suggest there’s an outside chance. Then there’s the BoJ on Friday which has a very different problem to many of its peers.

How many more super-sized Fed hikes?

Will the BoE join the 50 basis point club?

Can the BoJ be tempted to tighten monetary policy?


US

The main event of the week will be the FOMC decision on Wednesday.  The Fed is widely expected to deliver a half-point rate increase and to signal more are coming as inflation remains scorching hot.  The Fed will need to signal more aggressive hikes are warranted and that they will do what is needed to get inflation under control. 

It is a busy week for economic data and it will start on Tuesday with PPI likely to tell a similar story as Friday’s hot inflation report. In addition to the Fed decision, Wednesday has two big reports: The Empire manufacturing survey should show a modest rebound. Most traders will fixate over retail sales for May, which could show consumer spending is weakening. Thursday will see the release of housing starts, jobless claims, and the Philly Fed business outlook. 

The 2022 midterms are not that far away and many traders will pay close attention to see if Republicans have a clean sweep.  Tuesday has primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina.       

EU

A quiet week for the euro area with final inflation data among the highlights. Big revisions to the upside would pile further misery on households and businesses, not to mention the ECB which has finally come around to the idea that something needs to be done. And it absolutely will, a little bit next month and maybe more so again next quarter. The ECB really knows how to address urgent problems. Central bank speak including Christine Lagarde later in the week will be of interest although markets have already gone ahead and priced in 1.5% of hikes this year. Why bother waiting for the ECB to inevitably catch up?

The first round of French parliamentary elections will take place on Sunday.

UK

The highlight next week is obviously the Bank of England meeting, with the central bank expected to hike by another 25 basis points to 1.25%. Given the shift of gear from numerous other central banks recently, could the MPC be persuaded to join the 50 basis point club? Markets view a one in three chance of it happening. It arguably should be higher given the same central bank is expecting double-digit inflation later in the year.

Next week also offers the usual data dump that comes around the third week of the month, with jobs, retail sales, GDP and industrial production figures all due. Needless to say, it’s going to be eventful for the pound.

Russia

Next week is relatively quiet for Russia, with revised GDP for Q1 the only notable release. The CBR cut rates to pre-war levels on Friday at 9.5% but the currency remains near its recent highs thanks to a ballooning current account as imports have collapsed in the aftermath of the invasion. 

The central bank has been patient in cutting rates again in the hope of lowering inflation which fell to 17.1% in May, down from 17.8% in April, giving the impression it may have peaked. With the economy performing better than feared and inflation heading in the right direction, further rate cuts could follow in an attempt to revive consumer demand and support the economy.

South Africa

A quiet week with retail sales on Wednesday the only notable release.

Turkey

Nothing much on offer next week from Turkey, with the focus still being on the collapse of the lira as the most vulnerable EM currencies are punished in the global tightening environment. While the Turkish government and central bank repeatedly try to deflect blame for the currency woes and surging inflation, the blame lies much closer to home as the monetary experiment continues to go from bad to worse. 

China

China releases industrial output, retail sales and fixed asset investment on Wednesday and the 1-year MLF rate in the second half of the week. Chinese data should improve on the appalling April numbers in May as Shanghai and Beijing reopen, but will still be weak to negative. The 1-year MLF rate should stay unchanged at 2.85% as China persists with targetted stimulus aimed at MSME’s.

The main driver of volatility will be the Covid-zero policy with China announcing that 7 of Shanghai’s 16 districts will be tested over the weekend. Markets have been complacent around Covid-zero believing China was one and done. Unfortunately, omicron doesn’t work that way and if strict lockdowns spread once again, Chinese equities will be pummelled. Watch for developments on this front over the weekend and during the week.

India

India hiked rates again this past week and the RBI will be closely watching Wednesday’s inflation release for May. Inflation is expected to fall to around 7.0% from 7.80%, but a higher print will see RBI tightening expectations ratcheted up, which could weigh heavily on local equities.

Notably, the RBI rate hike and hawkish outlook did not benefit the Indian rupee this week and it remains near record lows at 77.800 to the US Dollar. A hawkish FOMC next week and softer inflation data could spur another bout of weakness in the currency. High oil prices are also another serious headwind.

Australia 

Australian unemployment on Thursday is the only material data point this week and is usually only good for intraday volatility.

Both Australian equities and the AUD remain under pressure with the price action particularly negative on AUD/USD. Wobbly risk sentiment globally has pushed the currency lower, and fears over renewed Chinese lockdowns are also weighing heavily as a proxy for China. Readers should watch virus developments in China for directional inputs on AUD.

New Zealand

NZ GDP on Thursday and Business PMI on Friday are both expected to retreat sharply. Nerves continue rising around the NZ economy as it slows while the RBNZ tightens policy. Poor data this week could weigh heavily on the NZD/USD, which, like AUD/USD, is also extremely vulnerable to negative virus developments/slowdown risk from China this week.

Japan

The Bank of Japan announces its monetary policy decision on Friday, a day after the FOMC announcement (Asian time). Despite the huge fall in the Japanese yen in the past week, it would be an enormous surprise if Japan tinkered with monetary policy. Given the weight of long USD/JPY positioning out there, a tightening move by the BOJ, no matter how tenuous, could see USD/JPY correct strongly.

Otherwise, the yen continues to be pummeled as US yields rise back above 3.0%, widening the US/Japan rate differential.

Japan releases industrial production on Monday, and the Tankan Survey and Machinery Orders on Tuesday. Both should show a slight improvement on the economic reopening and a weaker yen, but will only drive short-term intraday liquidity. 

Singapore

Singapore releases non-oil exports on Friday. A volatile series and poor data could be a short-term negative factor for local stocks. The SGD has been heavy this week and negative virus developments from China in the week ahead could accelerate USD/SGD strength.


Economic Calendar

Sunday, June 12

Economic Data/Events

France holds the first round of parliamentary elections

The World Trade Organization begins its ministerial meeting 

Monday, June 13

Economic Data/Events

China medium-term lending

India CPI

Japan business conditions index

New Zealand net migration

Turkey current account, industrial production

UK industrial production, trade data

Norway monthly GDP

ECB’s Luis De Guindos participates in a meeting on “The challenges of enhancing financial stability in the recovery phase from the Corona pandemic” organized by the Arab Monetary Fund.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi travels to Israel

Tuesday, June 14

Economic Data/Events

US PPI

Australia household spending, business confidence

Germany CPI, ZEW survey expectations

India trade, wholesale prices

Japan industrial production, capacity utilization

Mexico international reserves

New Zealand food prices

UK jobless claims, unemployment

ECB’s Schnabel speaks at Universite Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne

Wednesday, June 15

Economic Data/Events

FOMC Decision: To raise rates by a half-point and update economic projections

US cross-border investment, business inventories, empire manufacturing, retail sales

Poland CPI

Germany CPI

France CPI

Sweden CPI

Australia consumer confidence

Canada housing starts, existing home sales

China retail sales, industrial production, surveyed jobless rate, fixed assets, residential property sales

Eurozone industrial production, trade balance

Japan machinery orders, tertiary index

New Zealand BoP, current account GDP ratio

Russia GDP

South Africa retail sales

ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a discussion hosted by the London School of Economics

ECB’s Mario Centeno, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Klaas Knot and Joachim Nagel speak at Young Factor web event

ECB’s Panetta gives an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in the European Parliament

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson due to take questions in Parliament

Thursday, June 16

Economic Data/Events

US housing starts, initial jobless claims

Australia unemployment, consumer inflation expectations

China property prices

Eurozone new car registrations

Hungary one-week deposit rate

Italy CPI

Japan trade, department store sales

New Zealand GDP

Spain trade

Switzerland rate decision: No change expected with Policy Rate

UK BOE rate decision: Expected to raise Bank Rate by 25bps to 1.25%

ECB’s Centeno, de Cos, de Guindos, Knot, Vasle, Visco and Villeroy speak at Young Factor web event.

ECB’s Panetta speaks at European Payments Council’s 20th-anniversary event in Brussels.

ECB’s Vasle speaks at a Slovenian banking conference.

Friday, June 17

Economic Data/Events

US Conference Board leading index, industrial production

BOJ Rate Decision: To stand pat on rates

Eurozone CPI

Hong Kong jobless rate

Italy trade

UK retail sales

New Zealand PMI

Singapore non-oil domestic exports, electronic exports

Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts, car sales

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How Inflation Changes Culture

How Inflation Changes Culture

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via DailyReckoning.com,

The midterm elections are over (no Red Wave), but nothing…

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How Inflation Changes Culture

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via DailyReckoning.com,

The midterm elections are over (no Red Wave), but nothing has changed. In fact, the Biden regime will probably become even more emboldened to pursue destructive economic policies because it will interpret the lack of a Red Wave as some kind of mandate.

Every day seems to be a day of spin, with every regime apologist assuring the public that inflation is getting better. Just look at the wonderful trend line! They point to the latest inflation numbers, which were down a bit from the month prior.

The regime insists that yes, inflation will vex us for a bit more time but will settle down in a few months. Plus, the president is working to fix this! And we know the American people are on board with him since no Red Wave materialized.

But in the footnotes, you’ll find the truth: it was a tiny drop and mostly for technical reasons and the main reason for the drop has already disappeared from the price trends.

Has any political propaganda on this topic ever been this ineffective? It’s truly a joke.

Where’s the Relief Coming From?

The producer price index that came out recently paints a clearer picture. It’s grim. It reveals no softening at all. In fact, it shows that there are plenty of coming price increases. Here is the index by commodities from 2013 to the present.

Remember how last year many people finally came to the conclusion that we had to learn to live with COVID? That was a smart choice because there was no way that the China-style suppression method could work.

Well, here we are now with a preventable inflation pandemic and the realization that we have to learn to live with inflation. Soon we’ll realize that we have to live with recession at the same time.

But what does this mean?

The impact will be felt not just in terms of economics but in culture. Inflation causes a society-wide shortening of time horizons.

True Prosperity

Let’s review some basics. All societies are born desperately poor, fated to live off foraging and just getting by. Prosperity is built through the construction of capital, which is the institution that embodies forward thinking.

To make capital requires the deferral of consumption: you have to give up some today in order to make tools that enable more consumption tomorrow. This means discipline and a future orientation. And it means, above all, savings that can be invested in productive projects. Only through that path can societies grow rich.

A key component of this concerns the stability of the medium of exchange. And not just stability: a currency that rises in value over time incentivizes saving and thus investing for the long term.

The late 19th century provided a good example of this. Under the gold standard, money grew more valuable over time, thus rewarding long-term thinking and instilling that outlook in the culture at large.

Live for Today

Inflation has the opposite effect. It punishes saving. It forces a penalty on economic behavior that is future-oriented. That means also discouraging investment in long-term projects, which is the whole key to building a complex division of labor and causing wealth to emerge from the muck of the state of nature. Every bit of inflation trims back that future orientation.

Hyperinflation utterly wrecks it.

Living for the day becomes the theme. Taking what you can get now is the method and the theme. Grasping and spending. You might as well because the money is only going down in value and goods are in ever shorter supply.

Better to live hard and short and forget the future. Go into debt if possible. Let the devaluation itself pay the price.

The Seeds of Destruction

Once this attitude becomes instilled in a prosperous society, what we call civilization gradually devolves. If inflation persists, this kind of short-term thinking can wreck everything.

This is why inflation is not just about rising prices. It’s about declining prosperity, the punishing of thrift, the discouragement of financial responsibility, and a culture that gradually falls apart.

Another factor in reducing time horizons is legal instability. This was my first concern when the lockdowns began. Why would anyone start a business if governments can just shut it down on a whim? Why plan for the future when that future can be wrecked by the stroke of a pen?

Many people had assumed that this new path would be short-lived. Surely the politicians would wise up and stop the madness. Surely! Tragically, it got worse and worse. The spending and printing began and ramped up over time. It was a perfect storm of sheer madness, and now we are paying the highest possible price.

The Hinge of History

We need to speak frankly about what’s happening to the global economy. It’s not just about supply chain breakages. Those can be repaired. It’s not just about inflation affecting every country. We are living amidst a fundamental upheaval in the whole world.

The most significant single danger to global prosperity now comes in the form of a devastating and deeply tragic wreckage of the country that was set to lead the world in finance and technology: China.

The WSJ summarizes the current pain:

China in 2021 accounted for 18.1% of global gross domestic product, according to International Monetary Fund data, behind the U.S. at 23.9% but ahead of the 27 members of the European Union at 17.8%. It accounts for almost a third of global manufacturing output, according to United Nations data from 2020. China’s economy expanded modestly at the beginning of the year but data for March and April point to a sharp slowdown.

The trouble there traces to the top. When Xi Jinping locked down Wuhan, the world celebrated him for achieving what no other leader in history had achieved: the eradication of a virus in one country. Even now, he gets accolades for this.

The rest of the world followed, and elites in all countries said that this path was the future.

Going Backwards

Now the virus is on the loose all over the country, and the eradication methods are intensifying. This is crushing economic growth and now threatening genuine economic depression in the country that only a few years ago was seen as the greatest economic engine of the world.

It’s truly the case that Xi Jinping has put his personal pride above the well-being of all people in China. The scientists in the country know that he is wrong about this but no one is in a position to tell him.

We cannot really trust the data coming out of China but officially the rate of infection in that country is one of the lowest in the world. Billions more people need to get the bug and recover in order to have anything close to herd immunity. This means that lockdowns are the way for years to come so long as the present regime remains in power.

American prosperity for decades has relied on: relatively low inflation, fairly stable rules of the game, and widening trade with the world and China in particular. All three are at an end. Yes, it is heartbreaking to watch it all unfold.

I’m not defending China’s human rights abuses. Far from it. But the best way to end these abuses is through engagement, not estrangement.

We all need hope right now but it’s very difficult to find, since we are on a course that is not likely to be fixed for a very long time.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/30/2022 - 19:05

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Mish’s Daily: The Next Stop on This Fierce Bear Market Rally: A Global Recession?

Determining whether we are in a risk-on or risk-off climate is challenging, especially after a fantastic day of gains in every major US index.We should…

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Determining whether we are in a risk-on or risk-off climate is challenging, especially after a fantastic day of gains in every major US index.

We should be in a risk-on environment. The Chinese stock market even rose, with technology and electric vehicles leading, as investors hoped for a more liberal COVID-19 governmental policy. With a gain of 4.4%, the Nasdaq composite, which had been the slacker, led gains among major US indices.

The S&P 500 (represented above by the SPY ETF) also surpassed its 200-day moving average for the first time in seven months. Markets are also approaching critical technical levels, which can accentuate positive or negative data, so keep an eye out tomorrow for PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge.

Regardless of today's market action, there are indications that a global recession is imminent, with part of Europe potentially already in a recession and the US possibly next year. In particular, a rare 20-year recession signal is flashing red.

Global bonds joined US peers in signaling a recession, with a gauge measuring the global yield curve inverting for the first time in at least two decades.

According to Bloomberg Global Aggregate bond sub-indices, the average yield on government debt expiring in 10 years or more has slipped below that on short-term bond yields. On the heels of Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks today, the stock market rallied with heavy volume. Yet global bond yields signal a recession ahead.

Market conditions are ripe with profitable trading opportunities. Investors should pay close attention to commodities, currencies, bond yields, and inflation. If the PCE print is higher than expected, one-third or even more of today's gains could be erased quickly. On the flip side, if PCE is lower than expected, stocks might continue to run higher.

It is crucial to proceed with caution, as there is the potential for significant volatility in the coming weeks and months. We believe this ferocious bear market rally still has some legs – but don't wait too long to make your move, or your portfolio might get clawed quickly. If you are looking to capitalize on this ferocious bear market rally, our team can help your trading to protect your portfolio while allowing you to benefit from bullish trends.

Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, can provide more information about our trading and Mish's Premium Trading Service. Click here to learn more about Mish's Premium trading service with a complimentary one-on-one consultation.

"I grew my money tree and so can you!" - Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.


Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Read Mish's latest article for CMC Markets, titled "Can the Commodity Super-Cycle Persist into 2023?".

Mish talks stagflation in her interview by Dale Pinkert during the F.A.C.E. webinar.

Watch Mish's appearance on Business First AM here.

Mish hosted the Monday, November 28 edition of StockCharts TV's Your Daily Five, where she covered some of the Modern Family. She also discusses the long bonds and gold with levels to clear or, fail.


ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY): 402 is support and resistance at 411.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 183 support; 191 resistance.
  • Dow (DIA): 342 support; 349 support.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 288 support; 302 resistance.
  • KRE (Regional Banks): 62 support; 66 resistance.
  • SMH (Semiconductors): 223 support; 232 resistance.
  • IYT (Transportation): 230 support; 237 resistance.
  • IBB (Biotechnology): 133 support; 139 resistance.
  • XRT (Retail): 64 support; 70 resistance.


Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education


Wade Dawson

MarketGauge.com

Portfolio Manager

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Protests in China are not rare — but the current unrest is significant

Comparisons have been made to the 1989 demonstrations that led to the Tiananmen Square massacre. An expert on Chinese protests explains why that it half…

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Protesters march along a street in Beijing on Nov. 28, 2022. Noel Celis/AFP via Getty Images

Street protests across China have evoked memories of the Tiananmen Square demonstrations that were brutally quashed in 1989. Indeed, foreign media have suggested the current unrest sweeping cities across China is unlike anything seen in the country since that time.

The implication is that protest in China is a rarity. Meanwhile, the Nov. 30, 2022, death of Jiang Zemin – the leader brought in after the bloody crackdown on 1989 – gives further reason to reflect on how China has changed since the Tiananmen Square massacre, and how Communist party leaders might react to unrest now.

But how uncommon are these recent public actions? And how do they compare with the massive weekslong demonstrations of 1989?

Having written extensively on protest in China, I can attest that protests in China are not at all uncommon – but that doesn’t make what is happening now any less significant. Alongside similarities between the current street actions and more typical protests of recent years, there are also parallels between the demonstrations today and those in 1989. Yet differences in China’s international status and domestic leadership reduce the chances for liberal democratic transformation now.

Not so unusual, but still unique

The current protests are ostensibly about the Chinese government’s strict “zero COVID” policies. They were triggered by a deadly fire in the northwestern city of Urumqi on Nov. 24, with some residents blaming lockdown rules for hampering rescue efforts. Unrest has since spread to multiple cities, including Beijing and Shanghai.

The specifics are unique to the pandemic. But in many respects, what we are seeing is not new or unusual – protests, in general, are not rare in China.

In fact, from 1990 through the present, popular protests have been more frequent and widespread in China than they were in the years leading up to the Tiananmen Square-centered demonstrations.

According to Chinese government statistics, the yearly count of domestic “mass incidents” or “public order disturbances” – euphemisms used to refer to everything from organized crime to street protests – rose from 5,000 to 10,000 in the early 1990s to 60,000 to 100,000 by the early 2000s.

Despite the lack of official numbers since 2006 – which ceased to be published after that year – verbal statements by Chinese officials and research by scholars and nongovernment organizations estimate the number of yearly protests to have remained in the high tens-of-thousands.

When protests turn political

This is not to say the recent multi-city protests are unsurprising or insignificant. To the contrary, the current media spotlight is, I believe, well-deserved.

Nearly all the thousands of protests appearing every year in the post-Tiananmen Square period have been localized and focused on specific material issues. They occur, for example, when villagers feel they are unfairly compensated for land acquisitions, when private sector workers are not paid, or when residents suffer from environmental degradation caused by waste incinerators.

In contrast, the anti-lockdown protests have emerged in numerous cities – reporting by CNN suggests there have been at least 23 demonstrations in 17 cities. They are also all focused on the same issue: COVID-19 restrictions. Moreover, they are targeted at central Party leaders and official government policy.

For the the closest parallels in terms of size of protest, one has to go back to the late 1990s and early 2000s.

From 1998 to 2002, tens of thousands of state-owned enterprise workers in at least 10 Chinese provinces demonstrated against layoffs and enforced early retirements. And in 1999, roughly 10,000 members of the now-banned spiritual movement Falun Gong amassed in central Beijing to protest their suppression and demand legal recognition.

But these protests were directed at issues that specifically affected only these groups and did not critique China’s top political leaders or system as a whole.

The only post-1989 examples of overt collective political dissent – that is, public action calling for fundamental change to the mainland’s Chinese Communist Party-led political system – have been exceedingly small and transpired off the streets. In 1998, activists formed the China Democracy Party, declaring it a new political party to usher in liberal democratic multi-party governance. Though the party persisted openly for roughly six months, establishing a national committee and branches in 24 provinces and cities, its leaders ultimately were arrested and the party driven underground.

A decade later, a group of intellectuals led by writer Liu Xiaobo posted online a manifesto called “Charter 08” advocating for liberal democratic political reform. Liu, who later received the Nobel Peace Prize, was jailed as a result. He remained in prison until his death, from untreated cancer, in 2017.

And while the massive and sustained protests in Hong Kong over the past decade exemplify political dissent, protesters’ demands have remained confined to political reform in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China.

Calls for change and for Xi to go

So how much do the current anti-lockdown protests resemble the demonstrations that shook the regime in the spring of 1989?

Both have involved urban residents from various walks of life, including university students and blue-collar workers.

And in each case, the demands of protesters have been mixed. They include specific material complaints: In 1989, it was the impacts of inflation; in 2022, it is the effects of lockdowns and incessant PCR testing.

But they also include broader calls for political liberalization, such as freedom of expression.

A giant white statue with arm aloft stand above 100s of people.
The Goddess of Democracy stood as a symbol of protest during the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations. David Turnley/Getty Images

Indeed in some ways, the protesters of 2022 are being more pointed in their political demands. Those on the streets of at least two major cities have called on President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party to step down. Demonstrators in 1989 refrained from such system-threatening rhetoric.

That reflects the changing political realities of China then and now. In early 1989, Party leadership clearly was split, with more reform-oriented leaders such as Zhao Ziyang perceived as sharing the activists’ vision for change. As such, demonstrators saw a way of achieving their aims within the communist system and without a wholesale change in leadership.

The contrast with today is stark: Xi has a firm grip on the party. Even if Xi were to miraculously step down, there is no clear opposition leader or faction to replace him. And if the party were to fall, the resultant political void is more likely to bring chaos than orderly political transformation.

Yet if the Chinese Communist Party is a different entity now than it was in 1989, its response to unrest shares some traits. Central authorities in 1989 blamed the protests on foreign “black hands” seeking to destabilize China. The same accusations have been raised in online posts now.

In fact, the government response to recent protests follows a pattern that has played out time and again in post-1989 protests. There is little to no official media coverage of the protests or acknowledgment by central Chinese Communist Party leaders. At the same time, local authorities attempt to identify and punish protest leaders while treating regular participants as well-intended and non-threatening. Central criticism – and possible sanction – of local officials portrayed as violating national policies follows. Meanwhile, there are moves to at least partially address protester grievances.

It is a messy and inefficient way to respond to public concerns – but it has become the norm since 1989.

Teresa Wright does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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