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Week Ahead – Rate hikes keep coming

Will a recession follow? It’s been a slow start to the month in financial markets but the ECB rate decision on Thursday finally got things moving and…

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Will a recession follow?

It’s been a slow start to the month in financial markets but the ECB rate decision on Thursday finally got things moving and the US inflation data on Friday kept it going into the weekend. With so much to look forward to next week, it’s going to get really interesting.

The Fed rate decision on Wednesday is naturally the highlight, as traders look for further indications of the level of tightening that’s going to be required and whether it will ultimately tip the economy into recession. The inflation data did not make for good reading for policymakers.

The BoE is expected to raise rates on Thursday but could it be tempted to go super-sized like many of its peers? Markets suggest there’s an outside chance. Then there’s the BoJ on Friday which has a very different problem to many of its peers.

How many more super-sized Fed hikes?

Will the BoE join the 50 basis point club?

Can the BoJ be tempted to tighten monetary policy?


US

The main event of the week will be the FOMC decision on Wednesday.  The Fed is widely expected to deliver a half-point rate increase and to signal more are coming as inflation remains scorching hot.  The Fed will need to signal more aggressive hikes are warranted and that they will do what is needed to get inflation under control. 

It is a busy week for economic data and it will start on Tuesday with PPI likely to tell a similar story as Friday’s hot inflation report. In addition to the Fed decision, Wednesday has two big reports: The Empire manufacturing survey should show a modest rebound. Most traders will fixate over retail sales for May, which could show consumer spending is weakening. Thursday will see the release of housing starts, jobless claims, and the Philly Fed business outlook. 

The 2022 midterms are not that far away and many traders will pay close attention to see if Republicans have a clean sweep.  Tuesday has primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina.       

EU

A quiet week for the euro area with final inflation data among the highlights. Big revisions to the upside would pile further misery on households and businesses, not to mention the ECB which has finally come around to the idea that something needs to be done. And it absolutely will, a little bit next month and maybe more so again next quarter. The ECB really knows how to address urgent problems. Central bank speak including Christine Lagarde later in the week will be of interest although markets have already gone ahead and priced in 1.5% of hikes this year. Why bother waiting for the ECB to inevitably catch up?

The first round of French parliamentary elections will take place on Sunday.

UK

The highlight next week is obviously the Bank of England meeting, with the central bank expected to hike by another 25 basis points to 1.25%. Given the shift of gear from numerous other central banks recently, could the MPC be persuaded to join the 50 basis point club? Markets view a one in three chance of it happening. It arguably should be higher given the same central bank is expecting double-digit inflation later in the year.

Next week also offers the usual data dump that comes around the third week of the month, with jobs, retail sales, GDP and industrial production figures all due. Needless to say, it’s going to be eventful for the pound.

Russia

Next week is relatively quiet for Russia, with revised GDP for Q1 the only notable release. The CBR cut rates to pre-war levels on Friday at 9.5% but the currency remains near its recent highs thanks to a ballooning current account as imports have collapsed in the aftermath of the invasion. 

The central bank has been patient in cutting rates again in the hope of lowering inflation which fell to 17.1% in May, down from 17.8% in April, giving the impression it may have peaked. With the economy performing better than feared and inflation heading in the right direction, further rate cuts could follow in an attempt to revive consumer demand and support the economy.

South Africa

A quiet week with retail sales on Wednesday the only notable release.

Turkey

Nothing much on offer next week from Turkey, with the focus still being on the collapse of the lira as the most vulnerable EM currencies are punished in the global tightening environment. While the Turkish government and central bank repeatedly try to deflect blame for the currency woes and surging inflation, the blame lies much closer to home as the monetary experiment continues to go from bad to worse. 

China

China releases industrial output, retail sales and fixed asset investment on Wednesday and the 1-year MLF rate in the second half of the week. Chinese data should improve on the appalling April numbers in May as Shanghai and Beijing reopen, but will still be weak to negative. The 1-year MLF rate should stay unchanged at 2.85% as China persists with targetted stimulus aimed at MSME’s.

The main driver of volatility will be the Covid-zero policy with China announcing that 7 of Shanghai’s 16 districts will be tested over the weekend. Markets have been complacent around Covid-zero believing China was one and done. Unfortunately, omicron doesn’t work that way and if strict lockdowns spread once again, Chinese equities will be pummelled. Watch for developments on this front over the weekend and during the week.

India

India hiked rates again this past week and the RBI will be closely watching Wednesday’s inflation release for May. Inflation is expected to fall to around 7.0% from 7.80%, but a higher print will see RBI tightening expectations ratcheted up, which could weigh heavily on local equities.

Notably, the RBI rate hike and hawkish outlook did not benefit the Indian rupee this week and it remains near record lows at 77.800 to the US Dollar. A hawkish FOMC next week and softer inflation data could spur another bout of weakness in the currency. High oil prices are also another serious headwind.

Australia 

Australian unemployment on Thursday is the only material data point this week and is usually only good for intraday volatility.

Both Australian equities and the AUD remain under pressure with the price action particularly negative on AUD/USD. Wobbly risk sentiment globally has pushed the currency lower, and fears over renewed Chinese lockdowns are also weighing heavily as a proxy for China. Readers should watch virus developments in China for directional inputs on AUD.

New Zealand

NZ GDP on Thursday and Business PMI on Friday are both expected to retreat sharply. Nerves continue rising around the NZ economy as it slows while the RBNZ tightens policy. Poor data this week could weigh heavily on the NZD/USD, which, like AUD/USD, is also extremely vulnerable to negative virus developments/slowdown risk from China this week.

Japan

The Bank of Japan announces its monetary policy decision on Friday, a day after the FOMC announcement (Asian time). Despite the huge fall in the Japanese yen in the past week, it would be an enormous surprise if Japan tinkered with monetary policy. Given the weight of long USD/JPY positioning out there, a tightening move by the BOJ, no matter how tenuous, could see USD/JPY correct strongly.

Otherwise, the yen continues to be pummeled as US yields rise back above 3.0%, widening the US/Japan rate differential.

Japan releases industrial production on Monday, and the Tankan Survey and Machinery Orders on Tuesday. Both should show a slight improvement on the economic reopening and a weaker yen, but will only drive short-term intraday liquidity. 

Singapore

Singapore releases non-oil exports on Friday. A volatile series and poor data could be a short-term negative factor for local stocks. The SGD has been heavy this week and negative virus developments from China in the week ahead could accelerate USD/SGD strength.


Economic Calendar

Sunday, June 12

Economic Data/Events

France holds the first round of parliamentary elections

The World Trade Organization begins its ministerial meeting 

Monday, June 13

Economic Data/Events

China medium-term lending

India CPI

Japan business conditions index

New Zealand net migration

Turkey current account, industrial production

UK industrial production, trade data

Norway monthly GDP

ECB’s Luis De Guindos participates in a meeting on “The challenges of enhancing financial stability in the recovery phase from the Corona pandemic” organized by the Arab Monetary Fund.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi travels to Israel

Tuesday, June 14

Economic Data/Events

US PPI

Australia household spending, business confidence

Germany CPI, ZEW survey expectations

India trade, wholesale prices

Japan industrial production, capacity utilization

Mexico international reserves

New Zealand food prices

UK jobless claims, unemployment

ECB’s Schnabel speaks at Universite Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne

Wednesday, June 15

Economic Data/Events

FOMC Decision: To raise rates by a half-point and update economic projections

US cross-border investment, business inventories, empire manufacturing, retail sales

Poland CPI

Germany CPI

France CPI

Sweden CPI

Australia consumer confidence

Canada housing starts, existing home sales

China retail sales, industrial production, surveyed jobless rate, fixed assets, residential property sales

Eurozone industrial production, trade balance

Japan machinery orders, tertiary index

New Zealand BoP, current account GDP ratio

Russia GDP

South Africa retail sales

ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a discussion hosted by the London School of Economics

ECB’s Mario Centeno, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Klaas Knot and Joachim Nagel speak at Young Factor web event

ECB’s Panetta gives an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in the European Parliament

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson due to take questions in Parliament

Thursday, June 16

Economic Data/Events

US housing starts, initial jobless claims

Australia unemployment, consumer inflation expectations

China property prices

Eurozone new car registrations

Hungary one-week deposit rate

Italy CPI

Japan trade, department store sales

New Zealand GDP

Spain trade

Switzerland rate decision: No change expected with Policy Rate

UK BOE rate decision: Expected to raise Bank Rate by 25bps to 1.25%

ECB’s Centeno, de Cos, de Guindos, Knot, Vasle, Visco and Villeroy speak at Young Factor web event.

ECB’s Panetta speaks at European Payments Council’s 20th-anniversary event in Brussels.

ECB’s Vasle speaks at a Slovenian banking conference.

Friday, June 17

Economic Data/Events

US Conference Board leading index, industrial production

BOJ Rate Decision: To stand pat on rates

Eurozone CPI

Hong Kong jobless rate

Italy trade

UK retail sales

New Zealand PMI

Singapore non-oil domestic exports, electronic exports

Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts, car sales

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Las Vegas Strip Gets a Brand New Technology

It’s not just Caesars and MGM innovating on the Strip. A number of other companies are trying big idea.

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It's not just Caesars and MGM innovating on the Strip. A number of other companies are trying big idea.

Las Vegas has quietly become a hotbed for innovation. Some of that has been driven by the major casino operators -- Caesars Entertainment (CZR) - Get Caesars Entertainment Inc. Report, MGM Resorts International (MGM) - Get MGM Resorts International Report, Resorts World Las Vegas, and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) - Get Wynn Resorts Limited Report -- trying to outdo each other to win over customers.

Some innovations are ostentatious and hard to miss, like the MSG (MSGE) - Get Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. Class A Report Sphere being built at the Venetian. That first-of-its-kind concert venue looks as if it dropped to Earth from a technologically advanced civilization, and it has raised the bar for performance venues.

Many innovations, however, aren't as obvious. Caesars, for example, uses an artificial intelligence text-based concierge that's surprisingly effective. "Ivy," as it goes by, can answer questions, help with mundane tasks like getting clean towels delivered, or advance your issue to a human where needed.

Innovations big and small are happening up, down, and under the Las Vegas Strip. Elon Musk's Boring Co. has been building a network of tunnels under the city that will eventually use driverless Tesla  (TSLA) - Get Tesla Inc. Report electric vehicles to ferry people all over the city. 

That's a revolutionary idea -- but now a rival has emerged.  

Image source: Daniel Kline/TheStreet

Musk Goes Low, Lyft Goes High?

Musk's Boring Co. has a bold plan for more than 50 stations connecting the Las Vegas Strip to the airport, the Convention Center, Allegiant Stadium, and Fremont Street using driverless Teslas. 

Currently, only a small portion of that network has been built -- a section connecting the two halves of the Las Vegas Convention Center (and one connecting Resorts World Las Vegas to that same location.

For Musk and Boring Co., it's all about taking traffic off the city's busy streets and bringing it underground.

"During typical peak hours, driving from the Las Vegas Convention Center to Mandalay Bay, for example, can take up to 30 minutes. The same trip on Vegas Loop will take approximately 3 minutes," the company says on its website.

If Musk's plan is fully built, it'll effectively give Las Vegas a modern subway, helping alleviate road congestion. It will not, however, stop tourists from using ride-share and taxi cabs.

Now, ride-share company Lyft  (LYFT) - Get Lyft Inc. Report has brought a solution to Sin City that may ultimately help it solve another problem: a shortage of taxi and ride-share drivers. 

Lyft Brings Driverless Cars (Sort of) to Las Vegas

Labor in Las Vegas has been in short supply since the pandemic hit. Some people left the city and others found work outside the service-industry jobs that fuel the Las Vegas economy. At times, that has made the wait for a cab, or a ride-share from Uber (UBER) - Get Uber Technologies Inc. Report and Lyft, longer than usual.

Lyft plans to fix that by partnering with Motional to bring Motional's "Ioniq-5-based robotaxi, an autonomous vehicle designed for fully driverless ride-hail operation, to the Lyft network in Las Vegas," the ride-share company shared in a news release.

The Ioniq 5 is Hyundai's  (HYMTF)  prominent EV. Motional is the Boston joint venture between Hyundai and automotive-technology specialist Aptiv.  (APTV) - Get Aptiv PLC Report

"Launching Motional’s all-electric Ioniq 5 on Lyft’s network in Las Vegas represents tremendous progress in our vision to make an electric, autonomous, and shared future a reality for people everywhere," said  Lyft CEO Logan Green.

It's Self-Driving Lyfts, But...

There is, however, a pretty big catch.

"Each vehicle arrives with not one but two backup drivers standing by to take control of the car should anything go wrong" Casino.org's Corey Levitan reported.

Lyft has promised a truly driverless system at some point in 2023, but current laws and the state of driverless technology make the backups necessary.

Motional and Lyft have quietly been testing driverless vehicles in Las Vegas since 2018. In the news release, Lyft explained how the system works.

"This means riders are able to easily control their ride without assistance from a driver. The enhanced experience includes unlocking the doors through the Lyft app and starting the ride or contacting customer support from the new in-car Lyft AV app, an intuitive in-ride display tailored to autonomous ride-sharing," the company said.

Lyft and Boring Co. are not working together. But if Musk's plan takes vehicles off Las Vegas's streets, the new program makes the experience better for any that remain. 

Ride sharing and taxis will continue to cost significantly more than using Boring Co's subway-like system, so it's easy to see how the two options will work well together.   .

 

  

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Elon Musk’s Las Vegas Strip Plan Has Some Competition

It’s not just Caesars and MGM innovating on the Strip. Elon Musk has been tunneling under Las Vegas to solve a big problem, and now he has a rival.

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on

It's not just Caesars and MGM innovating on the Strip. Elon Musk has been tunneling under Las Vegas to solve a big problem, and now he has a rival.

Las Vegas has quietly become a hotbed for innovation. Some of that has been driven by the major casino operators -- Caesars Entertainment (CZR) - Get Caesars Entertainment Inc. Report, MGM Resorts International (MGM) - Get MGM Resorts International Report, Resorts World Las Vegas, and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) - Get Wynn Resorts Limited Report -- trying to outdo each other to win over customers.

Some innovations are ostentatious and hard to miss, like the MSG (MSGE) - Get Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. Class A Report Sphere being built at the Venetian. That first-of-its-kind concert venue looks as if it dropped to Earth from a technologically advanced civilization, and it has raised the bar for performance venues.

Many innovations, however, aren't as obvious. Caesars, for example, uses an artificial intelligence text-based concierge that's surprisingly effective. "Ivy," as it goes by, can answer questions, help with mundane tasks like getting clean towels delivered, or advance your issue to a human where needed.

Innovations big and small are happening up, down, and under the Las Vegas Strip. Elon Musk's Boring Co. has been building a network of tunnels under the city that will eventually use driverless Tesla  (TSLA) - Get Tesla Inc. Report electric vehicles to ferry people all over the city. 

That's a revolutionary idea -- but now a rival has emerged.  

Image source: Daniel Kline/TheStreet

Musk Goes Low, Lyft Goes High?

Musk's Boring Co. has a bold plan for more than 50 stations connecting the Las Vegas Strip to the airport, the Convention Center, Allegiant Stadium, and Fremont Street using driverless Teslas. 

Currently, only a small portion of that network has been built -- a section connecting the two halves of the Las Vegas Convention Center (and one connecting Resorts World Las Vegas to that same location.

For Musk and Boring Co., it's all about taking traffic off the city's busy streets and bringing it underground.

"During typical peak hours, driving from the Las Vegas Convention Center to Mandalay Bay, for example, can take up to 30 minutes. The same trip on Vegas Loop will take approximately 3 minutes," the company says on its website.

If Musk's plan is fully built, it'll effectively give Las Vegas a modern subway, helping alleviate road congestion. It will not, however, stop tourists from using ride-share and taxi cabs.

Now, ride-share company Lyft  (LYFT) - Get Lyft Inc. Report has brought a solution to Sin City that may ultimately help it solve another problem: a shortage of taxi and ride-share drivers. 

Lyft Brings Driverless Cars (Sort of) to Las Vegas

Labor in Las Vegas has been in short supply since the pandemic hit. Some people left the city and others found work outside the service-industry jobs that fuel the Las Vegas economy. At times, that has made the wait for a cab, or a ride-share from Uber (UBER) - Get Uber Technologies Inc. Report and Lyft, longer than usual.

Lyft plans to fix that by partnering with Motional to bring Motional's "Ioniq-5-based robotaxi, an autonomous vehicle designed for fully driverless ride-hail operation, to the Lyft network in Las Vegas," the ride-share company shared in a news release.

The Ioniq 5 is Hyundai's  (HYMTF)  prominent EV. Motional is the Boston joint venture between Hyundai and automotive-technology specialist Aptiv.  (APTV) - Get Aptiv PLC Report

"Launching Motional’s all-electric Ioniq 5 on Lyft’s network in Las Vegas represents tremendous progress in our vision to make an electric, autonomous, and shared future a reality for people everywhere," said  Lyft CEO Logan Green.

An Important Caveat

There is, however, a pretty big catch.

"Each vehicle arrives with not one but two backup drivers standing by to take control of the car should anything go wrong" Casino.org's Corey Levitan reported.

Lyft has promised a truly driverless system at some point in 2023, but current laws and the state of driverless technology make the backups necessary.

Motional and Lyft have quietly been testing driverless vehicles in Las Vegas since 2018. In the news release, Lyft explained how the system works.

"This means riders are able to easily control their ride without assistance from a driver. The enhanced experience includes unlocking the doors through the Lyft app and starting the ride or contacting customer support from the new in-car Lyft AV app, an intuitive in-ride display tailored to autonomous ride-sharing," the company said.

Lyft and Boring Co. are not working together. But if Musk's plan takes vehicles off Las Vegas's streets, the new program makes the experience better for any that remain. 

Ride sharing and taxis will continue to cost significantly more than using Boring Co's subway-like system, so it's easy to see how the two options will work well together.   .

 

  

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Exosomes Could Improve Inhaled Therapeutics

Instead of disguising vaccines in synthetic lipid nanoparticles, researchers used exosomes as their drug delivery vehicles to the lung. The exosomes are…

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For respiratory diseases, from asthma to COVID-19, inhaled treatments can quickly deliver a drug to the desired target, the lungs. Global health depends on such treatments. As Kristen Popowski, a PhD candidate in comparative biomedical sciences at the North Carolina State University’s College of Veterinary Medicine in Raleigh, and her colleagues wrote: “Respiratory diseases are among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide, with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remaining prevalent in the ongoing pandemic.”

Kristen Popowski [North Carolina State University]
Although lipid nanoparticles offer one delivery vehicle for such treatments, nature creates an obstacle. “The lung has natural defense mechanisms against inhaled particulates, and traditional lipid-nanoparticle vaccines present challenges in cytotoxicity and respiratory clearance,” says Popowski. “A nanoparticle formulation that can withstand these defense mechanisms remains a critical challenge.” So, Popowski and her colleagues explored an alternative approach.

“Instead of disguising vaccines in synthetic lipid nanoparticles, we utilize cell-secreted nanoparticles called exosomes as our drug delivery vehicles to the lung,” Popowski explains. “Our exosomes are secreted from native lung cells and are recognizable by the lung.”

Consequently, she says, “We can minimize pulmonary toxicity and clearance to better deliver and retain vaccines.” In addition, the exosome-based treatments developed by Popowski and her colleagues can be formulated as a dry powder that requires no refrigeration and can have a shelf life of 28 days.

Despite the incentives to take an exosome-based approach to inhaled treatments for respiratory diseases, turning that into a part of bioprocessing requires more research.

“Although commercial manufacturing of exosomes has recently shown extensive improvement, optimization of mRNA loading into exosomes remains a challenge,” Popowski says. “Endogenous mRNA expression through exosome engineering would likely be necessary for large-scale production.”

The post Exosomes Could Improve Inhaled Therapeutics appeared first on GEN - Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology News.

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