The final months of the year are going to be extremely challenging for the global economy, with experts predicting another significant wave of Covid-19 which risks further restrictions around the world at the expense of businesses that are already struggling to cope. Central banks are likely to be called upon again before the end of the year and while the ECB opted against laying the groundwork for more stimulus, others may not be so hesitant. With the Fed adopting a slightly modified framework, more easing could be coming.
-Italian think tank the European House continues its forum in Cernobbio. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, and German Deputy Finance Minister Joerg Kukies are expected to speak
Monday, Sept. 14
-OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is released with updates to their demand forecasts and production estimates.
-ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane participates in a fireside chat hosted by SUERF, the European Money and Finance Forum.
-Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party is expected to vote Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s replacement.
New Zealand performance of services index, Westpac consumer confidence, net migration
Euro-area industrial production
China new home prices
Japan tertiary industry index, industrial production, capacity utilization
India wholesale prices, CPI
Turkey industrial production
Hong Kong industrial production, PPI
Tuesday, Sept. 15
-The Federal Open Market Committee begins their two-day policy meeting.
-ECB Executive Board member Panetta delivers a recorded video statement at the 24th Annual Economist Government Roundtable in Athens.
US empire manufacturing, industrial production
Canada manufacturing sales
Germany ZEW survey
South Korea export and import price indexes
Australia Roy Morgan consumer confidence
Australia RBA minutes of policy meeting, house price index
China industrial production, fixed assets, property investment, jobless, retail sales
Poland CPI, rate decision
Wednesday, Sept. 16
– The upcoming Fed meeting could reveal some hints as to what needs to happen before policymakers are ready to raise rates.
-The OECD presents new economic forecasts for G-20 economies.
– EIA crude oil inventory report
-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson appears before Parliament’s powerful liaison committee to discuss the coronavirus crisis and tricky Brexit negotiations.
-ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann speaks in New York.
US retail sales, net TIC flows
U.K. inflation rate
New Zealand BoP
South Africa retail sales
Australia Westpac leading index
Thursday, Sept. 17
– Bank of England rate decision. BOE policy makers are expected to keep policy unchanged while laying the groundwork for more easing later in the year.
– Bank of Japan expected to keep rates unchanged and to keep supporting the corporate sector.
– The South African central bank (SARB) is likely to cut rates by 25 bps and downgrade their outlook for the rest of the year.
– ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn speaks in Helsinki.
– The Economic Club of New York hosts a webinar with Larry Kudlow, President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser.
Japan rate decision, condominium sales, department store sales
Hong Kong unemployment
Hong Kong rate decision
Friday, Sept. 18
– Quadruple witching day for US markets means trading volatility will be elevated.
US leading index, Univ. of Michigan sentiment, Baker Hughes rig count
Canada wholesale trade sales, retail sales
Russia rate decision: Expected to keep Key Rate unchanged at 4.25%
Sovereign Rating Updates:
– Belgium (S&P)
– Spain (S&P)
– European Union (Moody’s)
– Spain (Moody’s)
Following Jackson Hole, the Fed’s September policy decision will likely emphasize policymakers are ready to do more, but will wait to see if the economic recovery completely stalled and if Capitol Hill was able to accomplish anything with the next round of fiscal stimulus. Many investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s forecasts which will have them improve their employment outlook. At the June meeting, the Fed estimated unemployment will be at 9.3% by the end of 2020. After the August nonfarm payroll report, Wall Street and the Fed were stunned to see the unemployment rate improved dramatically to 8.4%. The Fed will have to acknowledge the improvement with the labor market and traders will look to see if low interest rates might only last a couple years.
Not much has changed in the polls following the Republican convention as President Trump still trails Joe Biden in six swing states. Right now, Biden has low-single digit leads in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The first Presidential debate is not until September 29th, so the focus will fall on the several upcoming campaigning events.
The European Central Bank offered a more upbeat view on the outlook for growth and inflation than had been expected and warned that deflationary pressures are only temporary. In the days leading up to the meeting, it had been rumoured that policy makers were falling in line with that train of thought and it turned out to be correct. The euro rallied strongly on Thursday in response before going into reverse.
The central bank made clear that it doesn’t target fx rates, effectively telling the market it’s safe to take a run at 1.20 against the dollar. Traders may decide there’s no rush though, with the pair having rallied strongly in recent months and shaping up for a possible correction in the near term. Plenty of time to see whether the data improves, particularly on the inflation side, and how bad the Covid situation becomes heading into the dreaded winter months.
Another unsuccessful week of talks this week that was overshadowed by the UK government’s baffling decision to introduce legislation into Parliament that undermines the Withdrawal agreement struck earlier this year and break international law. The Internal Market Bill has struck a nerve not just in Brussels but in the UK as well, including among some Brexit backing Conservatives, both in the House and the Lords. If this is a negotiating tactic by the UK government, it doesn’t seem a very good one as it tells anyone they’re hoping to strike a trade deal with, including the EU, that the country isn’t good for its word. Puzzling to say the least and maybe one of the more embarrassing u-turns facing the government in the coming weeks.
The UK grew by 6.6% month on month in July, the third consecutive positively monthly reading as it continues to bounce back from the devastation of the second quarter as the country went into lockdown. The economy remains 11.7% smaller than it was in February though so there’s still a long way to go. With more restrictions likely over winter, it may take some time to make up the deficit.
On a more upbeat note, the UK struck its first post-Brexit trade deal with Japan as it seeks to make a success of leaving the EU. The deal puts zero tariffs on 99% of exports to Japan and reportedly expands on the agreement negotiated with the EU. The Bank of England meeting next week will be eyed for hints about further easing later this year, with the last increase in the QE program in need of a boost. The central bank has discussed negative rates but more purchases is currently viewed as the preferred option.
TikTok sales deadline this week. They will inevitably have to ask for an extension from the US. A refusal and outright shutdown in the US will ratchet up the geopolitical temperature once again.
China Industrial Production and Retail Sales are expected to show slight improvements which should confirm that China’s recovery is on track and lift sentiment in the region.
China and India’s Himalaya standoff is a potential negative shock not priced by markets.
Arrests continue under new HK security law, but are being completely ignored by financial markets. Industrial Production expected to shrink by 9.50% highlighting Hong Kong’s recession and the challenges it has ahead in the new world order.
Social distancing measures may be lifted next week, boosting domestic consumption, and possibly, HK consumer discretionary stocks.
Covid-19 continues to wreak havoc on the domestic economy, heightening fears about growth as the stability of the banking system. India has become the no 2 infected country with no end in sight.The Indian Rupee’s appreciation has stalled over economic concerns and with Dollar strength last week.
India inflation data is released on Monday with CPI expected to climb to 7.0%, well above the 6% RBI target. With falling growth and rising prices, India’s immediate economic threat is stagflation. A high print for inflation will escalate those fears possibly leading to selling of Indian equities and currency. Having said that, international interest remains high in accessing India’s e-commerce sector.
China and India’s Himalaya standoff is a potential negative shock not priced by markets.
The New Zealand covid-19 outbreak is bartering but the New Zealand Dollar is coming under pressure as expectations rise that the RBNZ will move to negative interest rates by the year’s end. NZ GDP to show 7% QoQ fall this week, although more recent data shows activity rebounding quickly.
A rise in Covid-19 cases in Auckland, or their emergence elsewhere in the country, will have a strong negative impact on the NZD and NZ equities.
Trade relations with China continue to worsen with two Australian reporters evacuated by the government last week from Beijing. The deteriorating relations are weighing on Australian equities with the currency retreating in the face of a stronger US Dollar.
Australian Employment Change on Thursday expected to show a 90k jump. Notoriously volatile, poor numbers will cause short-term selling pressure on the currency and equities.
Victoria State’s lockdown seems to have been priced into Australian markets now..
Abe’s successor will be announced this Monday September 14th with Cabinet Secretary Suga the favorite. Little will change fiscally. The new PM will almost certainly have to fight a new general election in October.
Bank of Japan rate decision on Thursday. We expect unchanged at -0.10% with little to no new insight into future monetary policy. With a new Prime Minister selected on Monday, the BoJ is unlikely to rock the boat in his first week in the office.
Heavy data schedule. Industrial Production will recover slightly, core inflation will ease but the Balance of Payments will rise sharply. None of this will be enough to move the BoJ’s hands.
Oil Oil is in correction mode but has steadied over the last couple of days after plunging more than 15% late last week and early this. Numerous reasons were given for the fall but the reality in situations like this is that there were a lot of stale long positions that bailed the minute it started looking a little weak.
That’s fine, perfectly healthy in fact. And we are heading into a challenging winter period for the global economy. A vaccine is needed or it could be a tough few months for oil producers. With prices back below $40, I can’t imagine there’ll be a great rush among producers to further trim output cuts in any significant way.
Gold has enjoyed a decent week after looking very vulnerable early on. A bullish dollar breakout that appeared to be triggering a correction was very problematic for gold but the breakout has stalled quickly, aided by the ECB opting to take a more considered approach than had been previously rumoured.
As we saw immediately after yesterday’s decision though, the dollar quickly bounced back and with some force, potentially signalling that it’s not giving up the correction easily. Gold remains vulnerable and the path of least resistance looks below. It may just take a little time for the dollar to overcome some of the stubborn shorts.
In this specific predicament, U.S. officials have to choose a strategy to deliver the aid without the perception of benefiting Hamas, a group the U.S. and Israel both classify as a terrorist organization.
When aiding people in war zones, you can’t just send money, a development strategy called “cash transfers” that has become increasingly popular due to its efficiency. Sending money can boost the supply of locally produced goods and services and help people on the ground pay for what they need most. But injecting cash into an economy so completely cut off from the world would only stoke inflation.
So the aid must consist of goods that have to be brought into Gaza, and services provided by people working as part of an aid mission. Humanitarian aid can include food and water; health, sanitation and hygiene supplies and services; and tents and other materials for shelter and settlement.
Due to the closure of the border with Israel, aid can arrive in Gaza only via the Rafah crossing on the Egyptian border.
The U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID, will likely turn to its longtime partner on the ground, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, or UNRWA, to serve as supply depots and distribute goods. That agency, originally founded in 1949 as a temporary measure until a two-state solution could be found, serves in effect as a parallel yet unelected government for Palestinian refugees.
USAID will likely want to tap into UNRWA’s network of 284 schools – many of which are now transformed into humanitarian shelters housing two-thirds of the estimated 1 million people displaced by Israeli airstrikes – and 22 hospitals to expedite distribution.
Since Biden took office, total yearly U.S. assistance for the Palestinian territories has totaled around $150 million, restored from just $8 million in 2020 under the Trump administration. During the Obama administration, however, the U.S. was providing more aid to the territories than it is now, with $1 billion disbursed in the 2013 fiscal year.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency is a U.N. organization. It’s not run by Hamas, unlike, for instance, the Gaza Ministry of Health. However, Hamas has frequently undermined UNRWA’s efforts and diverted international aid for military purposes.
Humanitarian aid professionals regularly have to contend with these trade-offs when deciding to what extent they can work with governments and local authorities that commit violent acts. They need to do so in exchange for the access required to help civilians under their control.
Similarly, Biden has had to make concessions to Israel while brokering for the freedom to send humanitarian aid to Gaza. For example, he has assured Israel that if any of the aid is diverted by Hamas, the operation will cease.
This promise may have been politically necessary. But if Biden already believes Hamas to be uncaring about civilian welfare, he may not expect the group to refrain from taking what they can.
Security best practices
What can be done to protect the security of humanitarian aid operations that take place in the midst of dangerous conflicts?
Under International Humanitarian Law, local authorities have the primary responsibility for ensuring the delivery of aid – even when they aren’t carrying out that task. To increase the chances that the local authorities will not attack them, aid groups can give “humanitarian notification” and voluntarily alert the local government as to where they will be operating.
Under the current agreement between the U.S., Israel and Egypt, the convoy will raise the U.N. flag. International inspectors will make sure no weapons are on board the vehicles before crossing over from Arish, Egypt, to Rafah, a city located on the Gaza Strip’s border with Egypt.
The aid convoy will likely cross without militarized security. This puts it at some danger of diversion once inside Gaza. But whether the aid convoy is attacked, seized or left alone, the Biden administration will have demonstrated its willingness to attempt a humanitarian relief operation. In this sense, a relatively small first convoy bearing water, medical supplies and food, among other items, serves as a test balloon for a sustained operation to follow soon after.
In that case, the presence of U.S. armed forces might provoke attacks on Gaza-bound aid convoys by Hamas and Islamic jihad fighters that otherwise would not have occurred. Combined with the mobilization of two U.S. Navy carrier groups in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, I’d be concerned that such a move might also stoke regional anger. It would undermine the Biden administration’s attempts to cool the situation.
On U.N.-approved missions, aid delivery may be secured by third-party peacekeepers – meaning, in this case, personnel who are neither Israeli nor Palestinian – with the U.N. Security Council’s blessing. In this case, tragically, it’s unlikely that such a resolution could conceivably pass such a vote, much less quickly enough to make a difference.
Topher L. McDougal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
“The majority of wound infections often manifest themselves immediately postoperatively, so close followup should take place […]”
Credit: 2023 Barbarewicz et al.
“The majority of wound infections often manifest themselves immediately postoperatively, so close followup should take place […]”
BUFFALO, NY- October 20, 2023 – A new research perspective was published in Oncoscience (Volume 10) on October 4, 2023, entitled, “Diagnosis and management of postoperative wound infections in the head and neck region.”
In everyday clinical practice at a department for oral and maxillofacial surgery, a large number of surgical procedures in the head and neck region take place under both outpatient and inpatient conditions. The basis of every surgical intervention is the patient’s consent to the respective procedure. Particular attention is drawn to the general and operation-specific risks.
Particularly in the case of soft tissue procedures in the facial region, bleeding, secondary bleeding, scarring and infection of the surgical area are among the most common complications/risks, depending on the respective procedure. In their new perspective, researchers Filip Barbarewicz, Kai-Olaf Henkel and Florian Dudde from Army Hospital Hamburg in Germany discuss the diagnosis and management of postoperative infections in the head and neck region.
“In order to minimize the wound infections/surgical site infections, aseptic operating conditions with maximum sterility are required.”
Furthermore, depending on the extent of the surgical procedure and the patient‘s previous illnesses, peri- and/or postoperative antibiotics should be considered in order to avoid postoperative surgical site infection. Abscesses, cellulitis, phlegmone and (depending on the location of the procedure) empyema are among the most common postoperative infections in the respective surgical area. The main pathogens of these infections are staphylococci, although mixed (germ) patterns are also possible.
“Risk factors for the development of a postoperative surgical site infection include, in particular, increased age, smoking, multiple comorbidities and/or systemic diseases (e.g., diabetes mellitus type II) as well as congenital and/ or acquired immune deficiency [10, 11].”
Continue reading the paper: DOI:https://doi.org/10.18632/oncoscience.589
Correspondence to: Florian Dudde
Keywords: surgical site infection, head and neck surgery
Oncoscience is a peer-reviewed, open-access, traditional journal covering the rapidly growing field of cancer research, especially emergent topics not currently covered by other journals. This journal has a special mission: Freeing oncology from publication cost. It is free for the readers and the authors.
To learn more about Oncoscience, visit Oncoscience.us and connect with us on social media:
A year after the Supreme Court struck down President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan, he presented a new scheme to the Department of Education on Tuesday. While it is less aggressive than the prior plan, this proposal would cost hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars, doing more harm than good.
As the legendary economist Milton Friedman noted, “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.”
Higher education in America is costly, and this “forgiveness” would make it worse.
Signing up for potentially life-long student loans at a young age is too normalized. At the same time, not enough borrowers can secure jobs that offer adequate financial support to pay off these massive loans upon graduation or leaving college. These issues demand serious attention. But “erasing” student loans, as well-intentioned as it may be, is not the panacea Americans have been led to believe.
Upon closer examination, the President’s forgiveness plan creates winners and losers, ultimately benefiting higher-income earners the most. In reality, this plan amounts to wealth redistribution. To quote another top economist, Thomas Sowell described this clearly: “There are no solutions, only trade-offs.”
Forgiving student loans is not the end of the road but the beginning of a trade-off for a rising federal fiscal crisis and soaring college tuition.
When the federal government uses taxpayer funds to give student loans, it charges an interest rate to account for the cost of the loan. To say that all borrowers no longer have to pay would mean taxpayers lose along with those who pay for it and those who have been paying or have paid off their student loans.
Let’s consider that there will be 168 million tax returns filed this year. A simple calculation suggests that student loan forgiveness could add around $2,000 yearly in taxes per taxpayer, based on the CRFB’s central estimate.
Clearly, nothing is free, and the burden of student loan forgiveness will be shifted to taxpayers.
One notable feature of this plan is that forgiveness is unavailable to individuals earning over $125,000 annually. In practice, this means that six-figure earners could have their debts partially paid off by lower-income tax filers who might not have even pursued higher education. This skewed allocation of resources is a sharp departure from progressive policy.
Inflation remains high, affordable housing is a distant dream, and wages fail to keep up with soaring inflation. Introducing the potential of an additional $2,000 annual tax burden at least for those already struggling, mainly to subsidize high-income earners, adds insult to injury.
Furthermore, it’s vital to recognize that the burden of unpaid student loans should not fall on low-income earners or Americans who did not attend college. Incentives play a crucial role in influencing markets.
By removing the incentive for student loan borrowers to repay their debts, we may encourage more individuals to pursue higher education and accumulate debt without the intention of paying it back. After all, why would they when it can be written off through higher taxes for everyone?
The ripple effect of this plan could be far-reaching.
It may make college more accessible for some, opening the floodgates for students and the need for universities to expand and hire more staff, leading to even higher college tuition. This perverse incentive will set a precedent that will create a cycle of soaring tuition, which would counteract the original goal of making higher education more affordable.
While the intention behind President Biden’s student loan forgiveness may appear noble (in likelihood, it is a rent-seeking move), the results may prove detrimental to our nation’s economic stability and fairness. And if the debt is monetized, more inflation will result.
Forgiving student loans will exacerbate existing problems, with the brunt of the burden falling on lower-income Americans. Instead of improving the situation, it will likely create an intricate web of financial consequences, indirectly affecting the very people it aims to help. But that is the result of most government programs with good intentions.
Vance Ginn, Ph.D., is president of Ginn Economic Consulting, chief economist or senior fellow at multiple state thinks across the country, host of the Let People Prosper Show, and previously the associate director for economic policy of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, 2019-20. Follow him on X.com @VanceGinn.