Almost seven months have passed since Congress first passed the $2.2 trillion CARES Act. Still, at least 8.7 million Americans haven’t yet received their coronavirus stimulus checks and risk never seeing the money. A report from a government watchdog claims that inadequate IRS and Treasury Department records are to be blamed for this.

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8.7 million risk losing coronavirus stimulus checks

On Monday, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) said that millions of Americans are at risk of losing out on the coronavirus stimulus checks.

In its 371-page report, the government watchdog noted that in April, the Treasury Department determined that it does not have any data on 14 million people. These people are those who do not normally file taxes or get federal benefits, but are eligible for the stimulus benefits.

Further, the report noted that the Treasury Department followed the advice and extended the deadline to the end of September to allow those 14 million people to register to get the payment. Through July 31, at least 5.3 million of such people have used the IRS tool to apply for the stimulus payment, the GAO report said.

This means that at least 8.7 million eligible people have not yet gotten the stimulus check. GAO estimates that “potentially millions of individuals” are still “at risk of missing" their stimulus checks. As per the calculation by Forbes, about $10,440,000,000 money is still unclaimed.

As per the report, the Treasury Department and the IRS still do not have “updated information on how many eligible recipients have yet to receive these funds.”

Who else didn’t get the payment?

GAO found that the biggest demographic affected are the people who don’t file taxes. Thus, the IRS doesn’t have information on how much money they make annually. A primary reason why people don’t file taxes is that their gross income is below the threshold needed to file a tax return.

It’s not that all those who don’t file taxes haven’t gotten the stimulus checks. As per the GAO report, over 26 million people who don't file taxes have gotten the stimulus payment, including about five million who followed the IRS guidelines to register for the payment online.

Apart from the 8.7 million who didn’t get the coronavirus stimulus checks yet, the report found that 1.1 million didn’t get the full payment they were eligible for. Of these 1.1 million, around 355,000 are non-filers with children who didn’t get the $500 dependent payment. Further, it also includes domestic abuse victims, who don’t have access to the bank account in which the checks were deposited, as well as widows who didn’t get the direct payment because their spouse died.

GAO recommends that the IRS and Treasury “update and refine” their estimate on the eligible Americans who have yet to give their information to get the direct payment.

The post Millions of people at risk of missing coronavirus stimulus checks, watchdog warns appeared first on ValueWalk.

The US dollar is rallying against most of its currency competitors to kick off the trading week. The greenback, which has cratered about 10% since peaking at 103.00, is extending its gains in September as investors flee the broader financial market selloff and seek shelter in a traditional safe-haven asset.

The rising number of new COVID-19 infections has eaten away at risk appetite. With the upcoming cold and flu season on the horizon, many investors are concerned that a resurgence could put a dent on the stock market rally, particularly among the stock benchmark indexes. The United States is approaching seven million confirmed cases and 200,000 deaths, and the country is experiencing an uptick in cases after witnessing a steep drop-off this month.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spook markets, the equities arena is experiencing a sea of red ink. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 800 points, the S&P 500 shed 2.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.3%. The energy and metal commodities are also sliding: US crude plunged 4.2%, natural gas declined 10%, gold plunged $50, and silver cratered 10%.

Congress failing to reach another COVID-19 stimulus and relief package has also dampened the mood on the New York Stock Exchange. Although a $1.5 trillion blueprint is on the table, the federal government has yet to pass, approve, and sign the bill into law. This has led to worries about its broader implications for the stock market and overall economy.

The bond market is bleeding red ink. The benchmark 10-year Treasury decreased 2.3 basis points to 0.671%, the two-year note dipped 0.2 basis point to 0.137%, and the 30-year bond slipped 2.6 basis points to 1.426%.

All eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged at near-zero last week, and it pledged that it would keep rates low for a few more years. The US central bank also formalized the new inflation approach that would allow it to stay above the 2% target rate.

It has been quiet on the data front to start the trading week. This week, home sales and prices, purchasing managers’ index (PMI) readings, and durable goods orders will be released.

The USD/CAD currency pair rose 0.8% to 1.3312, from an opening of 1.3207, at 19:07 GMT on Monday. The EUR/USD plunged 0.63% to 1.1767, from an opening of 1.1840.

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Nasdaq continues to be the flavor of the month, with technology stocks remaining where investors want to be positioned even if a second wave hits the US.  Roughly $3 trillion is still on the sidelines and investors will want to see if the Fed remains very accommodative and ready to act if necessary. 

Wall Street is slightly growing nervous that COVID-19 is far from over.  New cases are emerging in Asia and Latin America appears to be going through the worst of it right now. 

Over 100 vaccines are being evaluated, with Moderna’s phase-three trial starting in July. The initial optimism that a vaccine is nearing is turning to cautiousness as investors brace for the possible disappointment if Moderna and Oxford don’t see their vaccines pass the phase 3 trials this summer.  If the front runners don’t get a vaccine, the focus will primarily shift to finding a treatment.  

Presidential election focus will start to take hold now and President Trump will try to narrow the gap with former-VP Biden.  Biden has a comfortable lead in the battleground states, but Trump is still better viewed at handling the economy and that should only improve as the recovery from reopening accelerates. 

Fed

Fed Chair Powell will likely soothe jittery investors, acknowledging the recovery is on its way but signaling they will remain vigilant as several risks to the outlook remain in place.  The Fed will signal no change in interest rates are expected over the next two years and that the next move will be a hike when the labor situation improves significantly.  The Fed is in a holding pattern and this meeting should show policymakers are skeptical of the economic recovery. 

Given the strong start to the economic rebound, negative rates seem unnecessary now and Fed watchers will want to find out if discussions begun about adopting yield curve control.  The Fed will do their part to ensure a low interest rate environment stays in place over the next few years. 

Treasury traders will look to see if the Fed commits to changing from daily to monthly bond buying. 

Oil

The API report raised expectations oil producers are itching to get shut-in production back. As the global economic recovery accelerates, crude demand will improve, but oil-producing nations will quickly want to make up for lost revenue and we could see the oil market struggle to find balance this month. Energy traders will pay close attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report to see if US production shows signs of stabilizing.  WTI crude seems to poised to settle around the mid-$30s as the oil market works its way to balance. 

Gold

Gold is benefiting from modest safe-haven flows this morning, but ultimately should see further support from a Fed that will likely signal they will remain vigilant.  New COVID-19 cases are a risk that is not going away anytime soon and that focus could grow over the coming days.  Gold should see further support as investors remain skeptical that US stocks may only have the room to go up another 5% from current levels for the remainder of the year.  Gold has a plethora of fundamental catalysts that could help trigger the climb back towards the $1800 level. 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin prices are teetering as crypto-watchers are waiting to see if the dollar resumes its slide.  Bitcoin’s momentum from growing institutional interest has run its course and  if the rally is going to finally sustain a move above $10,000, a broad rally for risky assets needs to occur.  Bitcoin fundamentals have been exhausted and cryptocurrency traders need a fresh catalyst.