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Week Ahead: Macro and Prices

The market has much to digest. The Bank of England’s new purchases of Gilts coincided with a reassessment of the trajectory of Fed policy. After the hawkish…



The market has much to digest. The Bank of England's new purchases of Gilts coincided with a reassessment of the trajectory of Fed policy. After the hawkish FOMC decision and forecasts, the market briefly thought the terminal rate could be 5.25-5.50% in the middle of next year. However, by the end of last week, it had returned to around 4.5% at the end of Q1 23. Italy has a right-wing government, and what it means for the country's debt and relationship with the EU are being debated. The cabinet will begin taking shape, and it could help shape investors' expectations. Italy's premium had jumped 30-40 since a little before the election.  

The rapid referendums in eastern Ukraine and Russia's annexation of the territories, after taking Crimea in 2014 point to a new phase in the conflict. Some observers are linking Russia's mobilization and rush for a referendum--even by its trumped-up standards, to the meeting with China's Xi rather than the setback of Russian forces at the hands of the Ukrainians armed to the teeth with US weapons and intelligence.  

Sometimes the narrative is about macro developments, but recently the price action itself has been the narrative. Central banks from several emerging markets are believed to have intervened to support their currencies, and Japan became the first G10 central bank to materially protest what the market was doing with the yen (still to be sorted out if it was about a level--less likely--than the one-way market--more likely). It looks like the initial estimates of a record JPY3.0 trillion (~$21 bln) was fairly close. BOJ figures suggest it was closer to the JPY2.85 trillion, which seems like a lot for a few nights of sound sleep. Still, the pullback in US yields helps protect the JPY145 level.  

Sterling's collapsed the new government's mini-budget spurred the Bank of England to comment. It was monitoring developments and would take the necessary measures to bring inflation down, and review both fiscal policy and sterling at its November 3 meeting. However, seeming to rule out an emergency meeting, which did not validate the sense of urgency seen by investors and businesses weighed on sterling. Yet, when systemic risks arose, the BOE stepped in. It announced a bond-buying program distinct from QE and it seemed to stop the panic. The Gilt market stabilized and sterling recovered to almost where it was before the government's fiscal initiative. The swaps market has a 150 bp hike at the next BOE meeting nearly fully discounted.

The price action in the debt markets is also the narrative.   The US 2-year yield has risen from almost 3.5% at the end of August to nearly 4.35%  in late September. It looks poised to re-test 4.0%. In early August, the US benchmark 10-year yield tested 2.50%. It poked above 4.0% last week before falling back below 3.70% before the weekend. The 10-year breakeven (the difference between the yield of the inflation-protected and conventional security) slipped below 2.10% before the weekend, its lowest since February 2021. The two-year breakeven slipped below 2% at the end of last week for the first time since late 2020.

The two-month rally in US equities indices has fully unwound. Europe's Stoxx 600 and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index also fell to new lows for the year last week. The general re-pricing of assets from a zero-interest rate environment to higher rates is a difficult process and it has become a moving target.  

Oil prices rallied almost 60% in the first half of the year and since mid-June, WTI has tumbled by nearly more than 35%, leaving it up less than 7% for the year. The US retail price for gasoline has risen over the last few days but did slip a little in September, its third consecutive monthly decline. At an average of around $3.80 a gallon, it has risen by slightly more than 15% since the end of last year. A broader measure of commodity prices, the CRB Index, has also pulled back since the mid-June peak. It has fallen by nearly 20%.  

There are a few data points next week that do stand out. First, is the US jobs report. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a 250k increase in non-farm payrolls, which includes an estimated 13k net loss of government jobs. The numbers have been so distorted by the shutdown and re-opening and shifting preferences that it may be difficult to know what is a normal number. In the four-year before the pandemic, the US averaged less than 200k additions a month. That means that the 250k median forecast (Bloomberg's survey), which would be the least since December 2020 will likely be seen as a robust figure by Fed officials.  

Of course, there are other dimensions that will be watched. These include the unemployment rate (which rose to 3.7% from 3.5%), the participation rate (increased to 62.4% from 62.1%, to match the highest since March 2020), and the average hourly earnings ( a 0.3% month-over-month increase will slow the year-over-year pace to 5.0% or slightly below). The JOLTS report on job openings appears seems to be attracting diminishing interest, even though Chair Powell still referred to it. Canada also reports September employment figures. It has lost full-time jobs for the three months through August.  

We would make the case for US auto sales being notable too. They are expected to have edged higher, and at 13.5 mln (SAAR) it would be the most since April. Although, through August auto sales are off about 15% year-over-year, a 13.5 mln unit pace September would be the second consecutive month of year-over-year improvement. In the current strong dollar environment trade figures are interesting, though the advanced goods balance report steals most of its thunder. Still, part of the issue is that the Fed does not meet until November 2, and the key for policy is not the real sector, provided the jobs report is broadly in line with expectations, is CPI (October 13).  

Japan's Tankan Survey (October 3) rarely moves the market, and this may be doubly true now as large business sentiment is better than for small businesses. Corporate profits are the highest in more than 50 years as the foreign earnings translate into more yen. Given the policy divergence, and the intervention to support the yen, Tokyo's September CPI will be watched as a good indicator of the national figures. Headline CPI may hold below 3%. The core rate (excludes fresh food) may have edged up from 2.6% in August. This could be the near-term peak, as the supplemental budget will offer new protection from energy and wheat prices and energy prices fall faster than the yen.  

The Reserve Bank of Australia and New Zealand meet. The market is slightly more confident that New Zealand's central bank will hike by 50 bp than Australia's. The RBA has hiked at every meeting since May for a total of 225 bp, bringing the target rate to 2.35%. It is clear that it is not done but it has signaled that after four half-point moves it could slow. Since it last met, the Australian dollar has fallen nearly 4.5% to two-and-a-half year lows near $0.6435. The RBNZ began its tightening cycle last October and has lifted the target rate by 275 bp to 3.0%. The swaps market has Australia's terminal rate between 4.25% and 4.50% in Q3 23. The terminal rate for the RBNZ is seen closer to 5.0%

Let's turn now to the foreign exchange price action. 

Dollar Index:  On September 20, the Dollar Index posted an outside up day by trading on both sides of the previous day's range and settling above its high. The rally that it signaled was completed in the middle of last week as DXY made new 20-year highs and then reversed lower and settled below the previous session's low. This key reversal saw follow-through selling to a new five-day low ahead of the weekend slightly above 111.55. That nearly met the (62.8%) retracement of the advance from September 20 (~111.45). Initial resistance is now near 112.80 and then 113.20. The MACD and Slow Stochastic are rolling over in over-extended territory. The 20-day moving average, the middle of the Bollinger Band is near 110.80.  

Euro:  The euro's recovery off the 20-year low set in the middle of last week (~$0.9535) stalled ahead of the weekend about three cents higher. Like the Dollar Index, it met the (61.8%) retracement objective of the move since September 20. It also stopped shy of the 20-day moving average (~$0.9890). Initial support is seen near $0.9700, and a break of $0.9650 would signal a return to the lows. The MACD firmed slightly last week but it has not established an uptrend. The Slow Stochastic has turned higher and it is still oversold. Parity is a key cap now. 

Japanese Yen:  The BOJ's intervention has helped steady the dollar-yen exchange rate. The market has been reluctant to push the dollar back above JPY145.00.   Since the middle of the week, the greenback has largely held above JPY144.00. The sideways movement has seen the MACD trend lower. The Slow Stochastic has also been trending lower but steadied last week. The pullback in US rates may be a contributing factor to the stability of the exchange rate. After briefly pushing above 4% in the middle of the week the 10-year US Treasury traded below 3.70% before the weekend. The two-year US yield reached almost 4.35% at the start of last week and finished below 4.18%.  

British Pound:  Sterling traded in a wide range last week. It began by extending the route after the new government's fiscal message and falling to its lowest level since the end of Bretton Woods, reaching $1.0350. The BOE's measures to address the threat to systemic stability helped spur a short-covering rally in sterling that lifted to a high at the end of the week of about $1.1235. Recall that it finished the previous week (September 23 near $1.0860 and traded almost to $1.1275 before the mini budget. The pre-weekend high met a technical retracement objective (~61.8% of the leg lower that began on September 13 from almost $1.1740). The momentum indicators have turned higher from oversold territory, and, of note, the Slow Stochastic is leaving a bullish divergence in its wake. While we think the market's response to the fiscal measures, which were largely what Prime Minister Truss had advocated during her campaign was exaggerated, the blow to sentiment was serious. Sterling needs to overcome resistance in the $1.1275-$1.1300 area to signal a deeper recovery, a loss of $1.09 could see $1.0750-$1.0800.  

Canadian Dollar:  Weak US stocks and an aggressive Federal Reserve kept the Canadian dollar on the defense last week. The greenback made a new two-and-a-half-year high near CAD1.3835 in the middle of the week. There was no follow-through USD selling after the key reversal on Wednesday. Support was found near CAD1.3600. The MACD is still rising but is stretched. The Slow Stochastic turned lower. The US dollar rose for its third consecutive week and seven of the nine weeks since the end of July. The Canadian dollar is no longer the best G10 performer this year against the US dollar. It lost top billing to the Swiss franc, which is almost 7% compared to the Loonie's 8% decline. More than half of this year's decline in the Canadian dollar took place in September (~-4.35%).  

Australian Dollar: As we saw with the Canadian dollar, so too with the Australian dollar:  The seemingly favorable price action in the middle of last week did not see follow-through action. Instead, weak consolidation was seen in the last two sessions. The Aussie slumped to a new two-year low near $0.6365 on September 28 and recovered to close a little bit above $0.6520. Before the weekend it traded to almost $0.6450. The MACD is at its lowest level since mid-May, and although it has not turned, it looks poised to do so in the coming days. The Slow Stochastic has curled up and from slightly above the low set earlier in September. Overcoming the $0.6575-$0.6600 area now would lift the tone. The futures market leans (~60%) in favor a of 50 bp hike by the RBA on October 4, essentially unchanged last week. A half-point move would lift the target rate to 2.85%. The terminal rate is seen a little over 4% near mid-2023. The RBNZ meets on October 5. The market is more confident that it hikes 50 bp and again in November, its last meeting year. That would put the target rate at 4%. The terminal rate is seen closer to 5.25% in early Q3 23.  

Mexican Peso:  As part of its broad rally, the US dollar pushed to MXN20.58 on September 28, its highest level in nearly two months. It reversed dramatically low and close that day near MXN20.1255. After the key reversal, there was no immediate follow-through selling, but ahead of the weekend, the greenback fell to new lows for the week around MXN20.09. The MACD is not clear, though the Slow Stochastic is curling lower. Last week, a few central European currencies gained against the dollar (Czech, Bulgaria, and Romania, but not Russia or Hungary), and after them was the peso. The peso's gain of about 0.5%  was enough to ensure a gain for the month, albeit small (less than 0.2%). We suspect there is potential now toward the lower end of the recent range (~MXN19.80).  

Chinese Yuan:  Before the weeklong holiday in China during the first week of October, officials drew the line in the sand. Reports suggested that it put banks on notice that they should be prepared for intervention. How do the banks prepare? Apparently, they cut their long dollar exposure. The dollar fell from CNY7.25 in the middle of last week to almost CNY7.0835 before the weekend. The greenback gapped lower last Thursday and Friday and both times the gap was quickly closed. The dollar settled near CNY7.1150, while against the offshore yuan the dollar finished a little below CNH7.1300. Given the sensitivity and official scrutiny, look for the dollar to trade within recent ranges against the offshore yuan during next week's holiday.  


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US Sent Billions in Funding to China, Russia For Cat Experiments, Wuhan Lab Research: Ernst

US Sent Billions in Funding to China, Russia For Cat Experiments, Wuhan Lab Research: Ernst

Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times…



US Sent Billions in Funding to China, Russia For Cat Experiments, Wuhan Lab Research: Ernst

Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Hundreds of millions of U.S. tax dollars went to recipients in China and Russia in recent years without being properly tracked by the federal government, including a grant that enabled a state-run Russian lab to test cats on treadmills, according to Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa).

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) speaks at a Senate Republican news conference in the U.S. Capitol on March 9, 2022. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Ernst and her staff investigators, working with auditors at the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the Congressional Research Service, as well as two nonprofit Washington watchdogs—Open The Books (OTB) and the White Coat Waste Project (WCWP)—discovered dozens of other grants that weren’t counted on the federal government’s internet database.

While the total value of the uncounted grants found by the Ernst team is $1.3 billion, that amount is just the tip of the iceberg, the GAO reported.

Among the newly discovered grants is $4.2 million to China’s infamous Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) “to conduct dangerous experiments on bat coronaviruses and transgenic mice,” according to a May 31 Ernst statement provided to The Epoch Times.

The $4.2 million exposed by Ernst is in addition to previously reported funding to the WIV for extensive gain-of-function research by Chinese scientists, much of it funded in whole or part prior to the COVID-19 pandemic by National Institutes for Health (NIH) grants channeled through the EcoHealth Alliance medical research nonprofit.

The NIH has awarded seven grants totaling more than $4.1 million to EcoHealth to study various aspects of SARS, MERS, and other coronavirus diseases.

Buying Chinese Puppy Parts

As part of another U.S.-funded grant, hearts and other organs from 425 dogs in China were purchased for medical research.

These countryside dogs in China are part of the farmer’s household; they were mainly used for guarding. Their diet includes boiled rice, discarded raw food animal tissues, and whatever dogs can forage. These dogs were sold for food,” an NIH study uncovered by the Ernst researchers reads.

Other previously unreported grants exposed by the Ernst team include $1.6 million to Chinese companies from the federal government’s National School Lunch Program and $4.7 million for health insurance from a Russian company that was sanctioned by the United States in 2022 as a result of the invasion of Ukraine.

“It’s gravely concerning that Washington’s reckless spending has reached the point where nobody really knows where all tax dollars are going,” Ernst separately told The Epoch Times. “But I have the receipts, and I’m shining a light on this, so bureaucrats can no longer cover up their tracks, and taxpayers can know exactly what their hard-earned dollars are funding.”

The problem is that federal officials don’t rigorously track sub-awards made by initial grant recipients, according to the Iowa Republican. Such sub-awards are covered by a multitude of federal regulations that stipulate many conditions to ensure that the tax dollars are appropriately spent.

The GAO said in an April report that “limitations in sub-award data is a government-wide issue and not unique to U.S. funding to entities in China.”

GAO is currently examining the state of federal government-wide sub-award data as part of a separate review,” the report reads.

Peter Daszak, right, the president of the EcoHealth Alliance, is seen in Wuhan, China, on Feb. 3, 2021. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)

The Eco-Health sub-awards to WIV illustrate the problem.

“Despite being required by law to make these receipts available to the public on the website, EcoHealth tried to cover its tracks by intentionally not disclosing the amounts of taxpayer money being paid to WIV, which went unnoticed for years,” Ernst said in the statement.

“I was able to determine that more than $490 million of taxpayer money was paid to organizations in China [in] the last five years. That’s ten times more than GAO’s estimate! Over $870 million was paid to entities in Russia during the same period!

Together that adds up to more than $1.3 billion paid to our adversaries. But again, these numbers still do not represent the total dollar amounts paid to institutions in China or Russia since those numbers are not tracked and the information that is being collected is incomplete.”

Adam Andrzejewski, founder and chairman of OTB, told The Epoch Times, “When following the money at the state and local level, the real corruption exists in the subcontractor payments. At the federal level, the existing system doesn’t even track many of those recipients.

“Without better reporting, agencies and appropriators don’t truly understand how tax dollars were used. We now know that taxpayer dollars are traded further downstream than originally realized with third- and fourth-tier recipients. These transactions need scrutiny. Requiring recipients to account for where and how they actually spend each dollar creates a record far better than agencies are capable of generating.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/02/2023 - 19:40

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COVID-19 Testing Resumes In Beijing, Shandong, As Reinfection Cases Surge

COVID-19 Testing Resumes In Beijing, Shandong, As Reinfection Cases Surge

Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times,

China has resumed COVID-19…



COVID-19 Testing Resumes In Beijing, Shandong, As Reinfection Cases Surge

Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times,

China has resumed COVID-19 PCR testing in Beijing and Shandong Province amid rising re-infections, while the regime’s top health advisers have warned of a new wave of mass infections.

Since May 29, mainland netizens have posted on Chinese social media platforms that PCR test kiosks in Beijing are quietly back in business.

Mainland media “City Interactive,” a subsidiary of Zhejiang “City Express,” reported on May 30 that one of the PCR testing booths that netizens posted about was in Beijing’s Xicheng District, where the central government and the Beijing municipal government are located.

The staff of that testing kiosk said that the PCR test there has never stopped, reported “City Interactive”, without being clear how long it had been open.

“We have been doing nucleic acid testing in Xicheng District, but I’m not sure about other districts in Beijing,” a staff member said.

The staff member said the laboratory she works for is mainly responsible for nucleic acid testing within Xicheng District. Currently, there are more than ten testing points outdoors, and one person is on duty for each booth from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm.

Residents get swabbed during mass COVID-19 testing in the Chaoyang District in Beijing on June 14, 2022. (Andy Wong/AP Photo)

A testing kiosk in Chaoyang District, Beijing’s central business district, has been operating since March, reported “City Interactive.” The testing booth staff said it is in the health center near Jinsong Middle Street.

Ms. Wang, a Beijing resident, told The Epoch Times on May 28 that some people have taken the PRC test while others have chosen not to.

She said many people around her, including her child, have already re-infected twice.

“This time, the symptoms seem to include a high fever and then sore throat, very painful,” she said.

“Most people are just resting at home now. Seeing a doctor is very expensive, and now many medicines are paid for by ourselves.”

Gao Yu, a former senior media person in Beijing, confirmed what Wang said. She told The Epoch Times that the relatives around her have been re-infected two or three times, and most are just resting it off at home.

Shandong Resumes Testing

PCR testing booths in Qingdao City, Shandong Province, have also reopened.

A “Peninsula Metropolis Daily” report included a screenshot of an online notice posted by the Laoshan District Health Bureau in Qingdao, which announced that from May 29, the district will conduct COVID-19 PCR testing for “all people who are willing.”

It also listed the working hours of the testing sites, from 7:00 am to 4:00 pm, seven days a week.

Another mainland Chinese media, “Xinmin Evening News,” reported on May 31 that the staff in the district bureau confirmed that the testing has resumed and is for free.

Next Wave

Zhong Nanshan, China’s top respiratory disease specialist, predicted on May 22 that a new wave of COVID-19 infections in China will likely peak in late June when weekly cases could reach 65 million. Then, one Omicron-infected patient will be able to infect more than 30 people,  Zhong said, adding that the infection is difficult to prevent.

A security personnel in a protective suit keeps watch as medical workers attend to patients at the fever department of Tongji Hospital, a major facility for COVID-19 patients in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, Jan. 1, 2023. (Staff/Reuters)

Chinese citizens across the country have said on social media that infections have been swelling since March.

Zhong also said there had been a small peak in infections at the end of April and early May.

Most COVID-19 infections in mainland China are currently caused by the XBB series mutant strains of Omicron. Among the locally transmitted cases, the percentage of XBB series variants increased to 83.6 percent in early May from 0.2 percent in February.

Zhang Wenhong, China’s top virologist and director of China’s National Center for Infectious Diseases, also warned in late April at a conference that COVID-19 infections would reoccur after six months when immunity gained from prior infections has worn out.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/02/2023 - 11:20

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Florida ‘freakishness’: why the sunshine state might have lost its appeal

Florida’s image as a safe sun and theme park destination may be threatened by recent political divisions and gun crime.




Florida's Clearwater Beach. Viaval Tours/Shutterstock

Florida is known worldwide for its beaches, resorts and theme parks, but has recently made headlines for a different reason. The state has been rocked by political controversies, bitter debates and fatal shootings at odds with its previously laid back holiday destination image.

In his 1947 book, Inside USA, writer John Gunther described Florida’s “freakishness in everything from architecture to social behaviour unmatched in any American state”. If Gunther had been writing today, he might be just as judgemental.

Florida’s recent political turmoil can be attributed to some highly contentious policies. The state has witnessed heated debates and legislative battles on issues including abortion, gun control, education, LGBTQ+ rights and voting rights.

Florida has been derided as “the worst state” in which to live, one of the worst in which to be unemployed or a student, and not a good place to die.

Even Donald Trump, who moved to his Florida Mar-a-Lago home during his presidency, has called it “among the worst states” to live in or retire to. This was an attack on Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who is also running for the Republican presidential nomination.

What was once considered by many to be a purple state – one that could either be Republican or Democrat – is now fiercely Republican. In recent years, the divide between those of different political beliefs has become toxic.

Importance of international image

International tourism and trade is huge business for Florida. In 2022, more than 1.1 million people visited Florida from the UK, the second largest group of international visitors on an annual basis. The UK is also Florida’s eighth largest trade partner with bilateral trade reaching $5.8 billion (£4.6 billion) in 2022. So state leaders might worry about tarnishing its image abroad.

Business leaders are already fretting about a fall in international visitor numbers linked to COVID and negative media coverage of the state. Around US$50 million was invested in marketing the state to tourists in 2023, this is expected to rise dramatically in 2024. The state’s ability to attract workers to keep its tourism and other industries going is weakening, reports suggest.

Heather DiGiacomo, chief of staff at the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice, told Florida senators that applications for jobs at state-run agencies were down and staff retention was down too. “These turnover rates … impacts the number of well-trained staff available to mentor new staff and puts additional strain on current staff without longer shifts in detention.”

Republican governor Ron DeSantis, now a presidential candidate, has been at the centre of Florida’s significant political divisions. The Republican state legislature’s controversial partisan bills, such as the recent redrawing of the electoral map to benefit the Republican party, was signed into law despite intense opposition.

While his conservative policies on taxes, regulation and immigration have won strong support from conservatives, critics argue that he prioritises partisan politics over the needs of all Floridians. His outspoken handling of the COVID pandemic sparked controversy, with accusations of downplaying the severity of the virus and prioritising economic interests.

Florida’s restrictive abortion laws have also attracted national and international attention. In April 2023, the state passed the foetal heartbeat bill, which prohibits abortions once a foetal heartbeat is detected, typically at around six weeks gestation. This law has faced significant backlash from reproductive rights advocates, who argue that many individuals may not even be aware of their pregnancy at such an early stage.

School shootings and gun laws

The Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School Public Safety Act was passed into Florida state law after the tragic Parkland school shooting in 2018, in which 17 people were killed. But it was controversial because it did not place restrictions on gun ownership or introduce background checks before gun purchases, but allowed schools to employ armed “guardians”. Critics argued that it fell short of addressing the root causes of gun violence in Florida.

There were seven mass shootings in Florida in the first two months of 2023. Despite this, the state has just passed a law that will come into effect on July 1 that will allow anyone who can legally own a gun in Florida to carry one without the need for a permit.

Florida’s partisan divide has been exacerbated by the introduction and passage of several laws that discriminate against the LGBTQ+ community. These laws cover areas including adoption, education, and transgender rights.

This year a massive LGBTQ event in a Florida theme park, which typically attracts 150,000 people, is taking out extra security measures, after new “don’t say gay” state laws were introduced in 2022. These rules ban teachers from discussing topics including sexual orientation. More generally, travel advisory warnings have been issued on the risks of travel to the state for LGBTQ+, African American and Latino people. A recent federal ruling overturned municipal bans on conversion therapy.

Although the “don’t say gay” bill was originally only aimed at third grade students and under, the bill has since been extended by Florida’s Board of Education to apply to all school pupils.

DeSantis has also become embroiled in a long legal and political battle with the Walt Disney Company, a major state employer, over the “don’t say gay” legislation. Disney recently announced it was cancelling a US$1 billion office complex project in the state.

Bills that restrict transgender students’ participation in school sports teams consistent with their gender identity have also sparked heated debate.

Meanwhile, changes in voting laws brought in by the state, including stricter identification requirements and limitations on the drop boxes where voters can leave mail-in ballots, have been criticised for making it more difficult for some people to vote.

Florida’s recent political turmoil has thrust the state into the national, and global, spotlight. Its deeply partisan divide, controversial policies and gun laws have created a toxic political climate, which has the ability to significantly damage the sunshine state’s appeal.

Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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