For a long time we’ve been warned that the final months of the year will be extremely eventful and if recent weeks are anything to go by, that may be an understatement. With the US election fast approaching, Covid on the rise again and Brexit negotiations reaching a critical point, financial markets are about to get very interesting, indeed.
The labor market recovery is stalling, and pressure continues to grow for Congress to provide more support. The September nonfarm payroll report will be the last jobs report before the presidential election. Most leading indicators show the joblessness issue is about to get worse. Weekly initial jobless claims remain elevated and the labor outlook for the rest of the year looks dismal as the winter wave of the virus will likely bring back many lockdowns and restrictive measures across the country. The upcoming jobs report is expected to show 900,000 jobs were created, down from the prior gain 1.37 million in August. The nonfarm payroll consensus range goes from a decline of 100,000 jobs to a gain of 1.8 million jobs.
US Politics
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and President Donald Trump will have their first presidential debate on Tuesday, September 29th. Both sides are trying to lower expectations heading towards the three presidential debates. President Trump has maintained his aggressive attacks on Biden’s acumen, while Biden is likely to focus on his opponent’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Prior to COVID-19, it was a foregone conclusion President Trump would have an easy path towards re-election. The focal point for the debate will be the coronavirus/economy. Biden’s lead in most battleground states is in the low to mid-single digits. This election has the smallest amount of undecided voters so its impact might be minimal in the polls.
EU
EU continues to see surging Covid cases that’s already weighing on economic activity. More data next week will likely make for difficult reading. ECB has been reluctant to hint at more stimulus but that may not last. Christine Lagarde will speak next week which may offer more insight into how the central bank may respond in the final months of the year. Brexit
Talks will continue next week after the UK side pushed back further Parliamentary debates on the Internal Markets Bill until December and only in the event that no-deal Brexit is happening. This episode has frustrated many people in Brussels and London and is widely seen as a negotiating ploy to ensure no-deal is as undesirable for the EU as it will be for the UK. Regardless, time is running out and with only a couple of weeks to go until the EU summit, it’s time for compromise. A deal by mid-October still looks hopeful but then, we’re used to deadlines not being met. Sterling volatility may intensify further in the coming weeks if negotiators play hard ball.
UK
The UK has imposed tighter restrictions and announced new job support measures in an attempt to slow the spread of Covid-19 and reduce the spike in unemployment that will happen at the end of next month when the furlough scheme draws to a close. The economy will naturally take a hit again with restrictions potentially lasting six months. Still, the biggest risk to the currency remains Brexit, or no-deal to be more specific. The next two weeks will be crucial.
China
TikTok gains injunction to stop US ban from app stores. The US government has until today to respond. It is increasingly unlikely the China Government will approve the US TikTok deal though dealing another blow to US/China relations.
China Industrial Profits released Sunday. A large deviation could cause a spike in volatility on equity and currency markets on Monday morning.
China PMI’s Wednesday should be market positive. China is on holiday for one week from Thursday.
WGBI inclusion will have no noticeable effect on currency.
Hong Kong
Mid-autumn holidays next week. No significant news or data. Ant Financial IPO expected early October after China holiday. HSBC shares hit 1995 lows, fears over money laundering and US/China politics.
India
Covid-19 continues to wreak havoc on the domestic economy, heightening fears about growth as the stability of the banking system. India has become the no 2 infected country and hit 5 million cases this week with no end in sight.
RBI rate decision Thursday. Expected unchanged as the economy caught in stagflation vice. Potential protests over the farming reform bill that has been snuck through the government by PM Modi.
New Zealand
No significant data or news.
Australia
ANZ Business Conf. and Manufacturing PMI expected to show further improvement. No other news or event risk. Iron and Copper prices are resilient and market supportive.
AUD and Australian equities are moving in lockstep with Wall Street. Wall Street weakness next week threatens AUD/USD key support at 0.7000.Australian markets could rally on strong China data however.
Japan
Heavy data week with Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Tanken survey and PMI’s. All are expected to show the economy mired in recession, especially domestic consumer data.
No significant event risk.
USD/JPY regains 105.00 on global equity sell-off and rise in US bond yields.
Markets
Oil
With risk appetite taking another beating this morning, oil is once again coming under pressure although, broadly speaking, it’s pretty much barely moved since Monday’s close. The sell-off earlier this week came as stock markets were falling aggressively on Covid and lockdown fears. Since then it’s stabilized surprisingly well, or perhaps not so surprisingly. When the Energy Minister of the most powerful OPEC+ nation is warning the market against shorting oil and suggesting they’ll suffer the consequences, it has the potential to put a floor under the market. I think we’re seeing those words take effect. Whether it lasts is another thing, the group may need to follow through on the threats eventually to be taken seriously and reinforce the floor he’s attempted to put in place.
Gold
Gold is slightly lower again this morning and heading back towards $1,850, around where it found support over the last 48 hours. The yellow metal is being pressured by a resurging dollar, which broke out of its downtrend in the middle of this month before stalling. It wasn’t for long though and it’s well and truly taken off this week.
To be clear, this only looks to be a corrective move at this stage but that doesn’t mean we won’t see $1,800 coming under pressure in gold in the not-too-distant future. The shift to a more risk-averse environment is favouring the dollar once again, at the expense of the once safe haven gold. Longer term prospects remain unchanged but in the near-term, the path of least resistance is below.
Event Calendar
Saturday, Sept. 26
– President Donald Trump to announce Supreme Court nominee to fill Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat
Sunday, Sept. 27
– Swiss voters will vote on whether to tear up a pact with the EU on the free movement of people, after a referendum campaign that exposed rifts in society over foreigners who make up a quarter of the population.
Economic Data
China industrial profits
Monday, Sept. 28
– Brexit negotiations. The final scheduled round of talks between the U.K. and EU on a post-Brexit trade deal takes place in Brussels. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Internal Market Bill may get a rough ride through Parliament, despite Johnson already agreeing on a compromise with members of his Conservative Party.
– ECB President Christine Lagarde attends a European Parliament hearing.
– Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester participates in an economic equality webinar hosted by the African American Chamber of Commerce of Western Pennsylvania.
– Turkey and Greece may resume exploratory talks to try and solve their maritime dispute.
Economic Data
Japan leading index
Tuesday, Sept. 29
– The first US presidential debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic opponent Joe Biden will take place at Case Western University in Cleveland.
-Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker discusses machine learning at an Official Monetary and Financial Institutions forum.
-New York Fed President John Williams speaks at the U.S. Treasury Market Conference
-Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves delivers an online speech on monetary policy.
Economic Data
U.S. wholesale inventories, S&P CoreLogic CS home prices, consumer confidence
Canada industrial product price
South Africa unemployment
South African Reserve Bank’s quarterly bulletin.
Japan CPI
Euro-area consumer confidence
Germany CPI
Wednesday, Sept. 30
– Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari discusses Covid-19 and the economy in a virtual forum hosted by Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce.
-The ECB holds its annual “ECB and Its Watchers” conference. President Christine Lagarde is among those speaking at the event.
– EIA crude oil inventory report
Economic Data
U.S. GDP (3rd reading) Annualized Q/Q:-31.6% eyed v -31.7% prior, Sept ADP employment change:650K eyed v 428K prior, pending home sales for August: 2.0% eyed v -2.0% prior
Chile copper production
Brazil primary budget balance
New Zealand building permits, ANZ business confidence
Japan retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, construction orders, machine tool orders
China manufacturing PMI, Caixin PMI manufacturing
Germany unemployment
Australia private sector credit, building approvals
CPI: South Africa, Euro-area, France
GDP: U.K., Canada
Thailand trade, BoP
Hong Kong retail sales
Philippines bank lending
Turkey trade balance
Thursday, Oct. 1
-EU summit in Brussels. Tensions with Turkey are at the top of the agenda. Separately, new Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis faces a confirmation hearing in the EU parliament. Through Oct. 2.
-New York Fed President John Williams delivers welcoming remarks at the New York Fed Conference on FinTech. He’ll also moderate a virtual discussion with Merck CEO Ken Frazier, hosted by the Economic Club of New York.
-Eastern European central bank governors meet in Rovinj, Croatia to discuss monetary policy and financial stability during the pandemic.
– US automobile sales for the third quarter are expected to increase despite lackluster sales to rental car companies.
Economic Data
U.S. initial jobless claims, personal income/spending, Sept ISM manufacturing: 55.9 eyed v 56.0 prior, construction spending, auto sales
Manufacturing PMI: US, Mexico, Canada, India, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Euro area, U.K., Poland, Czech
Australia AiG performance of manufacturing index, commodity index
Japan Tankan large manufacturing index, vehicle sales, Jibun Bank PMI manufacturing
South Korea trade
India rate decision: Expected to keep Repurchase Rate unchanged at 4.00%
Euro-area unemployment
PMI: Hungary, South Africa
Poland CPI
Friday, Oct. 2
-The September U.S. employment report will be the last before the November election. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to show 850K jobs were created, down from the prior 1.371 million created in August, but still the fifth straight month of gains.
-Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks at a virtual event on an inclusive workforce recovery.
Economic Data
U.S. Baker Hughes rig count, unemployment, University of Michigan sentiment, factory orders, durable goods
Former Project Veritas & O’Keefe Media Group operative and Pfizer formulation analyst scientist Justin Leslie revealed previously unpublished recordings showing Pfizer’s top vaccine researchers discussing major concerns surrounding COVID-19 vaccines. Leslie delivered these recordings to Veritas in late 2021, but they were never published:
Principal scientist at Pfizer, Kanwall Gill in 2021:
“We had no idea how it’s going to look like. MRNA vaccines have been there for 50 years, but nothing went to clinical trial because MRNA have been known to have side effects.”
Featured in Leslie’s footage is Kanwal Gill, a principal scientist at Pfizer. Gill was weary of MRNA technology given its long research history yet lack of approved commercial products. She called the vaccines “sneaky,” suggesting latent side effects could emerge in time.
Gill goes on to illustrate how the vaccine formulation process was dramatically rushed under the FDA’s Emergency Use Authorization and adds that profit incentives likely played a role:
Pfizer's principal scientist in 2021:
“It takes 10 year for a vaccine to come out. It takes years of observations... we are doing everything at the same time."
"It’s going to affect my heart, and I’m going to die. And nobody’s talking about that."
Leslie recorded another colleague, Pfizer’s pharmaceutical formulation scientist Ramin Darvari, who raised the since-validated concern that repeat booster intake could damage the cardiovascular system:
Pfizer's pharmaceutical formulation scientist, Ramin Darvari, in 2021:
“They’re engineering it specifically for me to take the next one, so increasing my consumption."
“It’s going to affect my heart, and I’m going to die. And nobody’s talking about that.”
None of these claims will be shocking to hear in 2024, but it is telling that high-level Pfizer researchers were discussing these topics in private while the company assured the public of “no serious safety concerns” upon the jab’s release:
Vaccine for Children is a Different Formulation
Leslie sent me a little-known FDA-Pfizer conference — a 7-hour Zoom meeting published in tandem with the approval of the vaccine for 5 – 11 year-olds — during which Pfizer’s vice presidents of vaccine research and development, Nicholas Warne and William Gruber, discussed a last-minute change to the vaccine’s “buffer” — from “PBS” to “Tris” — to improve its shelf life. For about 30 seconds of these 7 hours, Gruber acknowledged that the new formula was NOT the one used in clinical trials (emphasis mine):
“The studies were done using the same volume… but contained the PBS buffer. We obviously had extensive consultations with the FDA and it was determined that the clinical studies were not required because, again, the LNP and the MRNA are the same and the behavior — in terms of reactogenicity and efficacy — are expected to be the same.”
According to Leslie, the tweaked “buffer” dramatically changed the temperature needed for storage: “Before they changed this last step of the formulation, the formula was to be kept at -80 degrees Celsius. After they changed the last step, we kept them at 2 to 8 degrees celsius,” Leslie told me.
The claims are backed up in the referenced video presentation:
I’m no vaccinologist but an 80-degree temperature delta — and a 5x shelf-life in a warmer climate — seems like a significant change that might warrant clinical trials before commercial release.
Despite this information technically being public, there has been virtually no media scrutiny or even coverage — and in fact, most were told the vaccine for children was the same formula but just a smaller dose — which is perhaps due to a combination of the information being buried within a 7-hour jargon-filled presentation and our media being totally dysfunctional.
Bohemian Grove?
Leslie’s 2-hour long documentary on his experience at both Pfizer and O’Keefe’s companies concludes on an interesting note: James O’Keefe attended an outing at the Bohemian Grove.
Leslie offers this photo of James’ Bohemian Grove “GATE” slip as evidence, left on his work desk atop a copy of his book, “American Muckraker”:
My thoughts on the Bohemian Grove: my good friend’s dad was its general manager for several decades. From what I have gathered through that connection, the Bohemian Grove is not some version of the Illuminati, at least not in the institutional sense.
Do powerful elites hangout there? Absolutely. Do they discuss their plans for the world while hanging out there? I’m sure it has happened. Do they have a weird ritual with a giant owl? Yep, Alex Jones showed that to the world.
My perspective is based on conversations with my friend and my belief that his father is not lying to him. I could be wrong and am open to evidence — like if boxer Ryan Garcia decides to produce evidence regarding his rape claims — and I do find it a bit strange the club would invite O’Keefe who is notorious for covertly filming, but Occam’s razor would lead me to believe the club is — as it was under my friend’s dad — run by boomer conservatives the extent of whose politics include disliking wokeness, immigration, and Biden (common subjects of O’Keefe’s work).
Therefore, I don’t find O’Keefe’s visit to the club indicative that he is some sort of Operation Mockingbird asset as Leslie tries to depict (however Mockingbird is a 100% legitimate conspiracy). I have also met James several times and even came close to joining OMG. While I disagreed with James on the significance of many of his stories — finding some to be overhyped and showy — I never doubted his conviction in them.
As for why Leslie’s story was squashed… all my sources told me it was to avoid jail time for Veritas executives.
Feel free to watch Leslie’s full documentary here and decide for yourself.
Fun fact — Justin Leslie was also the operative behind this mega-viral Project Veritas story where Pfizer’s director of R&D claimed the company was privately mutating COVID-19 behind closed doors:
BREAKING: @Pfizer Exploring "Mutating" COVID-19 Virus For New Vaccines
"Don't tell anyone this...There is a risk...have to be very controlled to make sure this virus you mutate doesn't create something...the way that the virus started in Wuhan, to be honest."#DirectedEvolutionpic.twitter.com/xaRvlD5qTo
“[…] our findings support the hypothesis that the intrauterine environment, particularly essential and non-essential metals, affect epigenetic aging biomarkers across the life course.”
Credit: 2024 Bozack et al.
“[…] our findings support the hypothesis that the intrauterine environment, particularly essential and non-essential metals, affect epigenetic aging biomarkers across the life course.”
BUFFALO, NY- March 12, 2024 – A new research paper was published inAging (listed by MEDLINE/PubMed as “Aging (Albany NY)” and “Aging-US” by Web of Science) Volume 16, Issue 4, entitled, “Associations of prenatal one-carbon metabolism nutrients and metals with epigenetic aging biomarkers at birth and in childhood in a US cohort.”
Epigenetic gestational age acceleration (EGAA) at birth and epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) in childhood may be biomarkers of the intrauterine environment. In this new study, researchers Anne K. Bozack, Sheryl L. Rifas-Shiman, Andrea A. Baccarelli, Robert O. Wright, Diane R. Gold, Emily Oken, Marie-France Hivert, and Andres Cardenas from Stanford University School of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Columbia University, and Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai investigated the extent to which first-trimester folate, B12, 5 essential and 7 non-essential metals in maternal circulation are associated with EGAA and EAA in early life.
“[…] we hypothesized that OCM [one-carbon metabolism] nutrients and essential metals would be positively associated with EGAA and non-essential metals would be negatively associated with EGAA. We also investigated nonlinear associations and associations with mixtures of micronutrients and metals.”
Bohlin EGAA and Horvath pan-tissue and skin and blood EAA were calculated using DNA methylation measured in cord blood (N=351) and mid-childhood blood (N=326; median age = 7.7 years) in the Project Viva pre-birth cohort. A one standard deviation increase in individual essential metals (copper, manganese, and zinc) was associated with 0.94-1.2 weeks lower Horvath EAA at birth, and patterns of exposures identified by exploratory factor analysis suggested that a common source of essential metals was associated with Horvath EAA. The researchers also observed evidence of nonlinear associations of zinc with Bohlin EGAA, magnesium and lead with Horvath EAA, and cesium with skin and blood EAA at birth. Overall, associations at birth did not persist in mid-childhood; however, arsenic was associated with greater EAA at birth and in childhood.
“Prenatal metals, including essential metals and arsenic, are associated with epigenetic aging in early life, which might be associated with future health.”
Read the full paper: DOI:https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.205602
Corresponding Author: Andres Cardenas
Corresponding Email:andres.cardenas@stanford.edu
Keywords: epigenetic age acceleration, metals, folate, B12, prenatal exposures
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About Aging:
Launched in 2009, Aging publishes papers of general interest and biological significance in all fields of aging research and age-related diseases, including cancer—and now, with a special focus on COVID-19 vulnerability as an age-dependent syndrome. Topics in Aging go beyond traditional gerontology, including, but not limited to, cellular and molecular biology, human age-related diseases, pathology in model organisms, signal transduction pathways (e.g., p53, sirtuins, and PI-3K/AKT/mTOR, among others), and approaches to modulating these signaling pathways.
Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com and connect with us:
National insurance, income tax, VAT, capital gains tax, inheritance tax… it’s easy to get confused about the many different ways we contribute to the cost of running the country. The budget announcement is the key time each year when the government shares its financial plans with us all, and announces changes that may make a tangible difference to what you pay.
But you’ll likely be hearing a lot more about taxes in the coming months – promises to cut or raise them are an easy win (or lose) for politicians in an election year. We may even get at least one “mini-budget”.
If you’ve recently entered the workforce or the housing market, you may still be wrapping your mind around all of these terms. Here is what you need to know about the different types of taxes and how they affect you.
The UK broadly uses three ways to collect tax:
1. When you earn money
If you are an employee or own a business, taxes are deducted from your salary or profits you make. For most people, this happens in two ways: income tax, and national insurance contributions (or NICs).
If you are self-employed, you will have to pay your taxes via an annual tax return assessment. You might also have to pay taxes this way for interest you earn on savings, dividends (distribution of profits from a company or shares you own) received and most other forms of income not taxed before you get it.
VAT and excise duties are taxes on most goods and services you buy, with some exceptions like books and children’s clothing. About 20% of the total tax collected is VAT.
3. Taxes on wealth and assets
These are mainly taxes on the money you earn if you sell assets (like property or stocks) for more than you bought them for, or when you pass on assets in an inheritance. In the latter case in the UK, the recipient doesn’t pay this, it is the estate paying it out that must cover this if due. These taxes contribute only about 3% to the total tax collected.
You also likely have to pay council tax, which is set by the council you live in based on the value of your house or flat. It is paid by the user of the property, no matter if you own or rent. If you are a full-time student or on some apprenticeship schemes, you may get a deduction or not have to pay council tax at all.
This article is part of Quarter Life, a series about issues affecting those of us in our 20s and 30s. From the challenges of beginning a career and taking care of our mental health, to the excitement of starting a family, adopting a pet or just making friends as an adult. The articles in this series explore the questions and bring answers as we navigate this turbulent period of life.
Put together, these totalled almost £790 billion in 2022-23, which the government spends on public services such as the NHS, schools and social care. The government collects taxes from all sources and sets its spending plans accordingly, borrowing to make up any difference between the two.
Income tax
The amount of income tax you pay is determined by where your income sits in a series of “bands” set by the government. Almost everyone is entitled to a “personal allowance”, currently £12,570, which you can earn without needing to pay any income tax.
You then pay 20% in tax on each pound of income you earn (across all sources) from £12,570-£50,270. You pay 40% on each extra pound up to £125,140 and 45% over this. If you earn more than £100,000, the personal allowance (amount of untaxed income) starts to decrease.
If you are self-employed, the same rates apply to you. You just don’t have an employer to take this off your salary each month. Instead, you have to make sure you have enough money at the end of the year to pay this directly to the government.
The government can increase the threshold limits to adjust for inflation. This tries to ensure any wage rise you get in response to higher prices doesn’t lead to you having to pay a higher tax rate. However, the government announced in 2021 that they would freeze these thresholds until 2026 (extended now to 2028), arguing that it would help repay the costs of the pandemic.
Given wages are now rising for many to help with the cost of living crisis, this means many people will pay more income tax this coming year than they did before. This is sometimes referred to as “fiscal drag” – where lower earners are “dragged” into paying higher tax rates, or being taxed on more of their income.
National insurance
National insurance contributions (NICs) are a second “tax” you pay on your income – or to be precise, on your earned income (your salary). You don’t pay this on some forms of income, including savings or dividends, and you also don’t pay it once you reach state retirement age (currently 66).
While Jeremy Hunt, the current chancellor of the exchequer, didn’t adjust income tax meaningfully in this year’s budget, he did announce a cut to NICs. This was a surprise to many, as we had already seen rates fall from 12% to 10% on incomes higher than £242/week in January. It will now fall again to 8% from April.
While this is charged separately to income tax, in reality it all just goes into one pot with other taxes. Some, including the chancellor, say it is time to merge these two deductions and make this simpler for everyone. In his budget speech this year, Hunt said he’d like to see this tax go entirely. He thinks this isn’t fair on those who have to pay it, as it is only charged on some forms of income and on some workers.
I wouldn’t hold my breath for this to happen however, and even if it did, there are huge sums linked to NICs (nearly £180bn last year) so it would almost certainly have to be collected from elsewhere (such as via an increase in income taxes, or a lot more borrowing) to make sure the government could still balance its books.
There are likely to be further tweaks to the UK’s tax system soon, perhaps by the current government before the election – and almost certainly if there is a change of government.
Wealth taxes may be in line for a change. In the budget, the chancellor reduced capital gains taxes on sales of assets such as second properties (from 28% to 24%). These types of taxes provide only a limited amount of money to the government, as quite high thresholds apply for inheritance tax (up to £1 million if you are passing on a family home).
There are calls from many quarters though to look again at these types of taxes. Wealth inequality (the differences between total wealth held by the richest compared to the poorest) in the UK is very high (much higher than income inequality) and rising.
But how to do this effectively is a matter of much debate. A recent study suggested a one-off tax on total wealth held over a certain threshold might work. But wealth taxes are challenging to make work in practice, and both main political parties have already said this isn’t an option they are considering currently.
Andy Lymer and his colleagues at the Centre for Personal Financial Wellbeing at Aston University currently or have recently received funding for their research work from a variety of funding bodies including the UK's Money and Pension Service, the Aviva Foundation, Fair4All Finance, NEST Insight, the Gambling Commission, Vivid Housing and the ESRC, amongst others.
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