Government
Week Ahead – Jobs report eyed
US It remains all about the Fed as it continues down an aggressive tightening path. Wall Street will now fixate on how quick this economy is going to…
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US
It remains all about the Fed as it continues down an aggressive tightening path. Wall Street will now fixate on how quick this economy is going to weaken. A weakening consumer will help drive down inflation but so far this economy has shown a lot of resilience in the service sector.
Investors will have a handful of key economic releases to follow this week. On Monday, the ISM manufacturing report is expected to soften but still remain in expansion territory while prices paid, new orders, and employment could show modest weakness. Factory orders are also expected to turn positive in August.
The key economic release for the week is the September nonfarm payroll report, which should show hiring continued with 250,000 jobs created. Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 3.7%, while wages continue to steadily increase at 0.3% over the prior month.
It will be another week filled with Fed speak; this time with 13 appearances. On Monday, we will hear from Bostic and Williams. Tuesday’s comments come from Logan, Williams, Mester, Jefferson, and Daly. On Wednesday, Bostic speaks on inflation. Thursday’s appearance will include Evans, Cook, Waller, and Mester. On Friday Williams speaks in New York.
EU
The minutes from the last ECB monetary policy meeting will no doubt be of interest but in reality, it all feels quite outdated. A 75 basis point rate hike is priced in for the next meeting, maybe even 100bps, and I’m not sure what in the minutes could change that.
There’s a lot of economic data being released and they may not make for great reading, particularly on the PMI front as companies head into a nervy winter period.
UK
It’s barely worth looking at the economic calendar next week as the direction in the pound is unlikely to be driven by the final PMI readings or Halifax PMI.
The spotlight will be on the government and Bank of England and the prospect of u-turns and more interventions. Commentary from Prime Minister Liz Truss, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and BoE policymakers will obviously be of interest but ultimately it’s what they do more so than what they say that people are interested in. In the absence of action, will pressure mount on Truss and Kwarteng from within?
Russia
While the focus next week obviously centres around events in Ukraine and the response of the West to the “referendum results”, there is some economic data that will be of interest including inflation data and PMIs.
South Africa
A quiet week with the whole economy PMI on Wednesday the only notable release.
Turkey
The CPI data on Monday will tell us everything and the CBRT nothing about the shambolic monetary policy experiment taking place in Turkey. Inflation is expected to hit almost 85% in September but with President Erdogan calling for more rate cuts, we all know what’s coming next.
Switzerland
The SNB wants everyone to know that further rate hikes are coming, perhaps even before the next scheduled meeting, and the inflation data on Monday may tell us how seriously we should take those threats. PMI and unemployment data wrap up the week on the data front.
China
Golden week holidays are here and Mainland Chinese markets are closed through October 7th, while Hong Kong is only closed on Tuesday. After some verbal warnings about potentially selling dollars, traders will pay close attention to how the yuan trades. The PBOC could provide more signals about selling dollars.
India
The focus may be on the RBI and if they have pressure to tap their forex reserves. Economic data releases include both the manufacturing and services PMI releases.
Australia & New Zealand
Both the RBA and RBNZ are expected to continue with their tightening cycles.
The RBA is expected to deliver a fifth consecutive half-point hike despite signalling it could opt for a slower pace. With the rest of the world continuing to tighten aggressively, the central bank may want to avoid a downshift from its current pace.
The RBNZ is also expected to deliver a fifth straight half-point rate hike as inflation risks remain elevated. The peak in the tightening cycle is nearing thanks to lower energy prices and an improvement in supply chains.
Japan
It will be a busy week with lots of Japanese economic data. Key releases include the Tankan manufacturing report, PMI surveys, household spending data, and the leading index. Traders will pay close attention if the Japanese yen returns back to levels seen before the intervention. Currency intervention remains the most powerful that Japan has left to avoid massive selling pressure on the yen given the BoJ’s reluctance to tweak its yield curve control.
Singapore
Second-tier releases include the purchasing managers’ index, retail sales, and foreign reserve data. The Singapore dollar has been weakening but is still far from the lows seen earlier in the pandemic.
Economic Calendar
Saturday, Oct. 1
Economic Events
Mainland Chinese markets are closed through Oct. 7 for the Golden Week holidays
ECB’s de Cos joins a panel on the future of globalization at La Toja Forum 2022 in Galicia, Spain
Sunday, Oct. 2
Economic Events
Brazilians vote in the Presidential election
UK Conservative Party autumn conference starts in Birmingham, with speeches from Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng
Monday, Oct. 3
Economic Data/Events
US construction spending, ISM manufacturing, light vehicle sales
Eurozone manufacturing PMI
France manufacturing PMI
Germany manufacturing PMI
India manufacturing PMI
Japan Tankan, vehicle sales
Singapore home prices, PMI
UK S&P Global / CIPS UK manufacturing PMI
Fed’s Bostic gives opening remarks at a conference on technology-enabled disruption
Fed’s Williams speaks at the US Hispanic Chamber of Commerce National Conference in Phoenix
Euro area and EU finance ministers meet in Luxembourg
Tuesday, Oct. 4
Economic Data/Events
US factory orders, durable goods
RBA decision: Expected to raise Cash Rate Target by 50bp to 2.85%
Australia building approvals
Colombia monetary policy minutes
Eurozone PPI
Japan Tokyo CPI
Mexico international reserves
Spain unemployment
Fed’s Williams gives opening and closing remarks at an event on culture in the workplace hosted by the regional Fed bank
Fed’s Logan speaks at an event on technology-enabled disruption hosted by the Atlanta Fed
Fed’s Mester speaks at a payments conference hosted by the Chicago Fed
Fed’s Daly takes part in a moderated Q&A at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York
ECB’s Centeno speaks at a conference in Luxembourg
German Foreign Minister Baerbock speaks at the Warsaw Security Forum
Austrian financial regulator’s annual conference. Speakers include ESMA’s Verena Ross, ECB Supervisory Board chairman Enria, and Austrian Finance Minister Brunner
Wednesday, Oct. 5
Economic Data/Events
US trade
Eurozone Services PMI
France industrial production
New Zealand rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 50bp to 3.50%
Poland rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bp to 7.00%
Russia GDP
Singapore retail sales, car permit prices
Thailand CPI
OPEC+ meeting
Fed’s Bostic discusses inflation during a virtual event hosted by Northwestern University
EIA crude oil inventory report
Thursday, Oct. 6
Economic Data/Events
US initial jobless claims
Australia trade balance
Eurozone retail sales
Germany factory orders
Hungary one-week deposit rate
Spain industrial production
Fed’s Evans discusses the economy and monetary policy at an event hosted by the Illinois Chamber of Commerce in Chicago
Fed Governor Cook speaks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. Fed’s Mester discusses the economic outlook during an event hosted by the Council for Economic Education.ECB publishes an account of its September policy meeting
Friday, Oct. 7
Economic Data/Events
US September change in nonfarm payrolls: 250K v 315K prior, wholesale inventories
Australia’s central bank semi-annual financial stability review
Canada unemployment
China forex reserves
France trade
Germany industrial production
Japan household spending
Mexico CPI
Russia CPI
BOE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaks at a securities industry conference on the development of fintech services
Fed’s Williams takes part in a fireside chat and moderated Q&A in Buffalo, New York
European leaders from within and outside the EU have an informal summit and meeting in Prague, the so-called European Political Community gathering
Sovereign Rating Updates
Austria (Fitch)
Greece (Fitch)
Israel (Moody’s)
Ukraine (Moody’s)
Cyprus (DBRS)
Netherlands (DBRS)
unemployment pandemic yield curve monetary policy fed pound euro yuan governor gdp unemployment oil singapore africa india mexico japan hong kong canada european uk france spain germany netherlands poland hungary russia ukraine eu china
Government
Family Of College Student Who Died From COVID-19 Vaccine Sues Biden Administration
Family Of College Student Who Died From COVID-19 Vaccine Sues Biden Administration
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis…
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Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The family of a college student who died from heart inflammation caused by Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine has sued President Joe Biden’s administration, alleging officials engaged in “willful misconduct.”
U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) officials wrongly promoted COVID-19 vaccination by repeatedly claiming the available vaccines were “safe and effective,” relatives of George Watts Jr., the college student, said in the new lawsuit.
That promotion “duped millions of Americans, including Mr. Watts, into being DOD’s human subjects in its medical experiment, the largest in modern history,” the suit states.
The Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act allows lawsuits against certain people if they have engaged in “willful misconduct” and if that misconduct caused death or serious injury.
COVID-19 vaccines are covered by the act due to a declaration entered during the Trump administration in 2020 after COVID-19 began circulating.
“DOD’s conduct and the harm caused as alleged within the four corners of the lawsuit speaks for itself,” Ray Flores, a lawyer representing the Watts family, told The Epoch Times via email. “I have no further comment other than to say: My only duty is to advocate for my client. If the DOD conveys a settlement offer, I will see that it’s considered.”
The suit was filed in U.S. court in Washington.
The Pentagon and the Department of Justice did not respond to requests for comment.
Watts Suddenly Died
Watts was a student at Corning Community College when the school mandated COVID-19 vaccination for in-person classes in 2021. He received one Pfizer dose on Aug. 27, 2021, and a second dose approximately three weeks later.
Watts soon began experiencing a range of symptoms, including tingling in the feet, pain in the heels, numbness in the hands and fingers, blood in his sperm and urine, and sinus pressure, according to family members and health records.
Watts went to the Robert Packer Hospital emergency room on Oct. 12, 2021, due to the symptoms. X-rays showed clear lungs and a normal heart outline.
Watts was sent home with suggestions to follow up with specialists but returned to the emergency room on Oct. 19, 2021, with worsening symptoms despite a week of the antibiotic Augmentin. He was diagnosed with sinusitis and bronchitis.
While speaking to his mother at home on Oct. 27, 2021, Watts suddenly collapsed. Emergency medical personnel rushed to the home but found him unresponsive. He was rushed to the same hospital in an ambulance. He was pronounced deceased at age 24.
According to a doctor at the hospital, citing hospital records and family members, Watts had no past medical history on file that would explain his sudden death, with no known history of substance abuse or obvious signs of substance abuse. His mother described her son as a “healthy young male.”
Dr. Robert Stoppacher, a pathologist who performed an autopsy on the body, said that the death was due to “COVID-19 vaccine-related myocarditis.” The death certificate listed no other causes. A COVID-19 test returned negative. Dr. Sanjay Verma, based in California, reviewed the documents in the Watts case and said that he believed the death was caused by the COVID-19 vaccination.
Pfizer did not respond to a request for comment.
Watts Took Vaccine Under Pressure
The community college mandate included a 35-day grace period following approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) of a COVID-19 vaccine.
The Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines were given emergency use authorization early in the pandemic. The FDA approved the Pfizer shot on Aug. 23, 2021. It was the first COVID-19 vaccine approval. But doses of the approved version of the shot, branded Comirnaty, were not available for months after the approval.
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Government
US Sent Billions in Funding to China, Russia For Cat Experiments, Wuhan Lab Research: Ernst
US Sent Billions in Funding to China, Russia For Cat Experiments, Wuhan Lab Research: Ernst
Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times…
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Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Hundreds of millions of U.S. tax dollars went to recipients in China and Russia in recent years without being properly tracked by the federal government, including a grant that enabled a state-run Russian lab to test cats on treadmills, according to Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa).
Ernst and her staff investigators, working with auditors at the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the Congressional Research Service, as well as two nonprofit Washington watchdogs—Open The Books (OTB) and the White Coat Waste Project (WCWP)—discovered dozens of other grants that weren’t counted on the federal government’s USASpending.gov internet database.
While the total value of the uncounted grants found by the Ernst team is $1.3 billion, that amount is just the tip of the iceberg, the GAO reported.
Among the newly discovered grants is $4.2 million to China’s infamous Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) “to conduct dangerous experiments on bat coronaviruses and transgenic mice,” according to a May 31 Ernst statement provided to The Epoch Times.
The $4.2 million exposed by Ernst is in addition to previously reported funding to the WIV for extensive gain-of-function research by Chinese scientists, much of it funded in whole or part prior to the COVID-19 pandemic by National Institutes for Health (NIH) grants channeled through the EcoHealth Alliance medical research nonprofit.
The NIH has awarded seven grants totaling more than $4.1 million to EcoHealth to study various aspects of SARS, MERS, and other coronavirus diseases.
Buying Chinese Puppy Parts
As part of another U.S.-funded grant, hearts and other organs from 425 dogs in China were purchased for medical research.
“These countryside dogs in China are part of the farmer’s household; they were mainly used for guarding. Their diet includes boiled rice, discarded raw food animal tissues, and whatever dogs can forage. These dogs were sold for food,” an NIH study uncovered by the Ernst researchers reads.
Other previously unreported grants exposed by the Ernst team include $1.6 million to Chinese companies from the federal government’s National School Lunch Program and $4.7 million for health insurance from a Russian company that was sanctioned by the United States in 2022 as a result of the invasion of Ukraine.
“It’s gravely concerning that Washington’s reckless spending has reached the point where nobody really knows where all tax dollars are going,” Ernst separately told The Epoch Times. “But I have the receipts, and I’m shining a light on this, so bureaucrats can no longer cover up their tracks, and taxpayers can know exactly what their hard-earned dollars are funding.”
The problem is that federal officials don’t rigorously track sub-awards made by initial grant recipients, according to the Iowa Republican. Such sub-awards are covered by a multitude of federal regulations that stipulate many conditions to ensure that the tax dollars are appropriately spent.
The GAO said in an April report that “limitations in sub-award data is a government-wide issue and not unique to U.S. funding to entities in China.”
“GAO is currently examining the state of federal government-wide sub-award data as part of a separate review,” the report reads.
The Eco-Health sub-awards to WIV illustrate the problem.
“Despite being required by law to make these receipts available to the public on the USAspending.gov website, EcoHealth tried to cover its tracks by intentionally not disclosing the amounts of taxpayer money being paid to WIV, which went unnoticed for years,” Ernst said in the statement.
“I was able to determine that more than $490 million of taxpayer money was paid to organizations in China [in] the last five years. That’s ten times more than GAO’s estimate! Over $870 million was paid to entities in Russia during the same period!
“Together that adds up to more than $1.3 billion paid to our adversaries. But again, these numbers still do not represent the total dollar amounts paid to institutions in China or Russia since those numbers are not tracked and the information that is being collected is incomplete.”
Adam Andrzejewski, founder and chairman of OTB, told The Epoch Times, “When following the money at the state and local level, the real corruption exists in the subcontractor payments. At the federal level, the existing system doesn’t even track many of those recipients.
“Without better reporting, agencies and appropriators don’t truly understand how tax dollars were used. We now know that taxpayer dollars are traded further downstream than originally realized with third- and fourth-tier recipients. These transactions need scrutiny. Requiring recipients to account for where and how they actually spend each dollar creates a record far better than agencies are capable of generating.”
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Government
OraSure Technologies’ CFO Makes Bold Insider Purchase, Reigniting Investor Confidence
Executive Kenneth McGrath’s $500,000 buy read as promising signal about future for diagnostic test developer OraSure Technologies (NASDAQ:OSUR) saw…
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Executive Kenneth McGrath’s $500,000 buy read as promising signal about future for diagnostic test developer
OraSure Technologies (NASDAQ:OSUR) saw a stock price re-rate on Thursday, climbing 11% after investors became aware of its CFO Kenneth McGrath buying shares in the diagnostic test developer. This latest rally in OSUR stock, gives traders and investors hope that the strong momentum from the beginning of 2023 might return.
OSUR shares had mounted an impressive 54% rally for 2023 through to May 10, when the first-quarter results update spooked investors.
The CFO’s trade was initially spotted on Fintel’s Insider Trading Tracker following the filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Big Holdings Boost
In the Form 4 filing, McGrath, who assumed CFO duties in August 2022, disclosed buying 100,000 shares on May 30 in the approved trading window that was open post results.
McGrath on average paid $4.93 per share, giving the total transaction a value just shy of $500,000 and boosted his total share count ownership to 285,512 shares.
The chart below from the insider trading and analysis report for OSUR shows the share price performance and profit made from company officers in previous transactions:
Prior to joining OraSure, McGrath had an impressive eight-year tenure at Quest Diagnostics (NYSE:DGX), where he rose to the position of VP of Finance before departing. This is the first time that the CFO has bought stock in the company since August 2022. It is also worth noting that the purchase followed strong Q1 financial results, which exceeded Street forecasts.
Revenue Doubles
In its recently published Q1 update, OraSure Technologies told investors that it generated a whopping 129% increase in revenue to $155 million, surpassing analyst expectations of around $123 million.
Notably, the revenue growth was driven primarily by the success of OraSure’s COVID-19 products, which accounted for $118.4 million in revenue for the quarter and grew 282% over the previous year.
The surge in revenue for this product was largely driven by the federal government’s school testing program, which led to record test volumes. However, it is important to note that demand for InteliSwab is expected to decline in Q2 2023, prompting OraSure to scale down its COVID-19 production operations. As part of its broader strategy to consolidate manufacturing, the company plans to close an overseas production facility.
While the COVID-19 products division has been instrumental in OraSure’s recent success, its core business delivered stable flat sales of $36.6 million during the quarter.
In terms of net income, OraSure achieved an impressive result of $27.2 million, or $0.37 per share, in Q1, marking a significant improvement compared to the loss of $19.9 million, or a loss of $0.28 per share, in the same period last year. This result exceeded consensus forecasts of $0.16 per share. As of the end of the quarter, the company held $112.4 million in cash and cash equivalents.
Looking ahead to Q2, OraSure has provided revenue guidance in the range of $62 to $67 million, reflecting the lower order activity from the US government with $25 to $30 million expected sales for InteliSwab. The declining Covid related sales have been a core driver of the share price weakness in recent weeks.
While sales are likely to fall in the coming quarters, one positive for the company is its low debt balance during this period of rising cash rates. The chart below from Fintels financial metrics and ratios page for OSUR shows the cash flow performance of the business over the last five years.
Analyst Opinions
Stephen’s analyst Jacob Johnson thinks that outside of Covid, OSUR continues to execute on several cost and partnership initiatives which he believes appears to be bearing fruit. Johnson pointed out that three partnerships were signed during the quarter.
The analyst thinks that the ex-Covid growth story will be the new focus for investors from now on. The brokerage maintained its ‘equal-weight’ recommendation and $6.50 target price on the stock, matching Fintel’s consensus target price, suggesting OSUR stock could rise a further 29% in the next 12 months.
The post OraSure Technologies’ CFO Makes Bold Insider Purchase, Reigniting Investor Confidence appeared first on Fintel.
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