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Week Ahead – Bring on the Fed

Focus on the US next week Europe took centre stage last week as leaders waited nervously to see if gas would start flowing through Nord Stream 1 again…

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Focus on the US next week

Europe took centre stage last week as leaders waited nervously to see if gas would start flowing through Nord Stream 1 again following scheduled maintenance (it did) and the ECB raised its deposit rate to 0%, ending eight years of negative rates. Next week the focus switches back to the US which has a big interest rate decision of its own and a number of major earnings reports.

The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, although it may be tempted to follow the Bank of Canada in hiking by a full percentage point and show the world it means business. This is happening against the backdrop of mounting recession fears which makes next week’s earnings reports all the more important.

Elsewhere it’s a little quieter on the central bank front which is hardly surprising considering how many we heard from late last week. There’s always the possibility of an inter-meeting decision if a central bank deems it necessary. Many have taken that option over the last couple of years and the SNB is no stranger to surprising the markets. If not, there’s no shortage of economic data which traders will no doubt be scrutinizing for inflation clues.

Will the Fed raise rates by 1%?

Inflation data eyed as the ECB starts raising rates

Will Australian inflation data increase calls for more RBA rate hikes?


US

This week is all about the Fed. On Wednesday, the Fed will have to decide how high they want to raise interest rates this time. The consensus estimate is for a 75 basis point increase, but some are expecting the Fed to slow the pace of tightening to a half-point increase, while a couple of economists think an aggressive full-point increase is justified and on the table.  

On Thursday, we will find out if the US fell into a technical recession. The first look at Q2 GDP is expected to show a modest expansion of 0.9%, an improvement from the -1.6% reading from the prior quarter.  The Bloomberg GDP estimate range from 55 economists ranges between -0.6% and 1.2%.  

This is also a massive week for earnings. Tuesday will contain quarterly updates from GM, GE, UPS and 3M.  Apple and Amazon both report after the close on Thursday. A lot of traders still believe any stock market rebounds are bear market rallies as the Fed will remain committed to fighting inflation for the rest of the year. If corporate America starts showing more troubles with the jobs market, that could make some investors reassess how aggressive the Fed will be going forward.    

EU 

In a strange way, the inflation data next week has lost a little something following the ECB’s decision to hike by 50 basis points on Thursday. That decision was taken on the assumption that price pressures are building faster than anticipated and more widespread. It would probably take a shocking number to drastically change expectations. And coming six weeks ahead of the next meeting, a lot can change. That said, in a week of big data points – unemployment, GDP, Ifo – it remains the standout.

Russian gas started flowing along Nord Stream 1 as planned on Thursday, albeit only at 40% as it was before the maintenance began. While a relief, it’s clear that Europe’s energy situation is going to remain extremely challenging in the months ahead given the tendency for flows to be reduced for various reasons.

UK 

A quiet week ahead of the Bank of England meeting the week after, at which the MPC is expected to accelerate its tightening with a 50 basis point hike. 

Russia

The CBR cut rates again on Friday and much more than expected, bringing the key rate down from 9.5% – where it was before the invasion – to 8%. The rouble remains more than 20% stronger against the dollar despite the rate cuts and more are likely to follow. CBR Governor Nabiullina expects the economy to contract less sharply this year than previously thought but for the downturn to be more prolonged. Unemployment and industrial output figures will be released next week. 

South Africa

The SARB accelerated its tightening with a 75 basis point hike, bringing the repo rate to 5.5% as it prepares for a prolonged period of above-target inflation. PPI is the only economic release of note next week.

Turkey

The CBRT opted to continue to bury its head in the sand at its July meeting, leaving the repo rate unchanged at 14% while blaming everything else for eye-watering inflation, which now stands at 78.62%.

The quarterly inflation report will make for interesting reading on Thursday. Enough to change their direction? Almost certainly not although there must come a point when the experiment will need to end.

Switzerland

The SNB is expected to raise interest rates a further 50 basis points when it next meets, with some suggesting it may be higher after inflation hit a 29-year high earlier this month. The central bank does love a surprise though so we can’t discount the possibility of an inter-meeting announcement. 

Retail sales on Friday is the only release of note next week. 

China

It is a quiet week for data in China, with just industrial profits on Wednesday, as world markets remain laser-focused on the US FOMC decision later that day.

China sentiment will be driven by political developments at home, notably the ongoing mortgage payment strike by apartment buyers, this is putting more financial pressure on developers. More stress in this sector will weigh heavily on the Shanghai Composite (lots of banks) and the Hang Seng (lots of developers).

Covid-19 cases are rising in China once again and the ever-present risk is that centres like Shanghai or Beijing could face partial shutdowns again. Potentially a major negative for local and regional equity markets.

India

No significant data in the week ahead. Foreign investors have continued to sell out of Sensex holdings heavily, weighing on the rupee. USD/INR remains near record highs as the current account deteriorates due to high energy prices and domestic export restrictions. The RBI appears to be intervening to cap USD/IDR near 80.00, but a 1.0% FOMC hike this week may see the RBI fold. The RBI may well be considering another unscheduled rate hike, which could be negative for equities.

Australia 

The Australian dollar remains at the mercy of international investor sentiment flows which have been positive for the past week. It could drop suddenly if investor sentiment swings south.

Australia releases inflation data on Wednesday which should generate short-term volatility. A high print could have markets scrambling to price in more aggressive RBA tightening, which may be positive for AUD and negative for local equities.

New Zealand

New Zealand releases business and consumer sentiment this week. There is substantial downside risk as cost-of-living and weakening property prices bite. A potential negative for local equities.

The New Zealand dollar remains at the mercy of international investor sentiment flows.

Japan

Japan has a heavy data week ahead but Friday’s consumer confidence, industrial production and retail sales are the most important. All three could show a gentle recovery which may be positive for local equities, although the Nikkei 225 is mostly correlated to the Nasdaq at the moment.

USD/JPY has fallen below 138.00 on lower US yields. If US yields fall again into the early part of next week, USD/JPY is in danger of a large downward correction to wash out USD/JPY longs. Conversely, a hawkish FOMC decision next week could see the USD/JPY uptrend resume as the rate differential widens.

Singapore

Singapore releases industrial production on Monday, but Friday’s PPI and import/export prices is likely to be more important. With the MAS already tightening this month, and October’s policy meeting looming, high data prints could see markets’ position for another hike in October, a potential negative for local equities.


Economic Calendar

Sunday, July 24

Economic Events

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will begin his trip across Africa

Monday, July 25

Economic Data/Events:

Germany IFO business climate

Singapore CPI

Taiwan industrial production

A key debate between the UK’s final Conservative Party leadership candidates, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss

Tuesday, July 26

Economic Data/Events

US new home sales, Conf. Board consumer confidence

Fed begins 2-day policy meeting

Key earnings from Alphabet, GM, GE, UPS and 3M

Mexico international reserves

Singapore industrial production

Bank of Japan releases minutes from its June meeting

The IMF releases its world economic outlook update

EU energy ministers expected to have an emergency meeting

Wednesday, July 27

Economic Data/Events

FOMC decision: Fed expected to raise rates by 75 basis points

US wholesale inventories, durable goods

Australia CPI

China industrial profits

Mexico trade

Russia industrial production, unemployment

Thailand trade

EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report

Thursday, July 28

Economic Data/Events

US Q2 Advance GDP Q/Q: +0.9%e v -1.6% prior; initial jobless claims

Mexico unemployment

Australia retail sales

Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence

Germany CPI

Hungary one-week deposit rate

After the close, Apple and Amazon report earnings

Friday, July 29

Economic Data/Events

US consumer income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Eurozone CPI and GDP

France CPI and GDP

Poland CPI

Czech Republic GDP

Germany GDP

Italy GDP

Mexico GDP

Japan industrial production

German unemployment

Japan unemployment, Tokyo CPI, retail sales

Sovereign Rating Updates

Norway (Fitch)

Finland (Moody’s)

Austria (DBRS)

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Russia’s energy war: Putin’s unpredictable actions and looming sanctions could further disrupt oil and gas markets

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not hesitated to use energy as a weapon. An expert on global energy markets analyzes what could come next.

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The new Baltic Pipe natural gas pipeline connects Norwegian natural gas fields in the North Sea with Denmark and Poland, offering an alternative to Russian gas. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Russia’s effort to conscript 300,000 reservists to counter Ukraine’s military advances in Kharkiv has drawn a lot of attention from military and political analysts. But there’s also a potential energy angle. Energy conflicts between Russia and Europe are escalating and likely could worsen as winter approaches.

One might assume that energy workers, who provide fuel and export revenue that Russia desperately needs, are too valuable to the war effort to be conscripted. So far, banking and information technology workers have received an official nod to stay in their jobs.

The situation for oil and gas workers is murkier, including swirling bits of Russian media disinformation about whether the sector will or won’t be targeted for mobilization. Either way, I expect Russia’s oil and gas operations to be destabilized by the next phase of the war.

The explosions in September 2022 that damaged the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines from Russia to Europe, and that may have been sabotage, are just the latest developments in this complex and unstable arena. As an analyst of global energy policy, I expect that more energy cutoffs could be in the cards – either directly ordered by the Kremlin to escalate economic pressure on European governments or as a result of new sabotage, or even because shortages of specialized equipment and trained Russian manpower lead to accidents or stoppages.

Dwindling natural gas flows

Russia has significantly reduced natural gas shipments to Europe in an effort to pressure European nations who are siding with Ukraine. In May 2022, the state-owned energy company Gazprom closed a key pipeline that runs through Belarus and Poland.

In June, the company reduced shipments to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which has a capacity of 170 million cubic meters per day, to only 40 million cubic meters per day. A few months later, Gazprom announced that Nord Stream 1 needed repairs and shut it down completely. Now U.S. and European leaders charge that Russia deliberately damaged the pipeline to further disrupt European energy supplies. The timing of the pipeline explosion coincided with the start up of a major new natural gas pipeline from Norway to Poland.

Russia has very limited alternative export infrastructure that can move Siberian natural gas to other customers, like China, so most of the gas it would normally be selling to Europe cannot be shifted to other markets. Natural gas wells in Siberia may need to be taken out of production, or shut in, in energy-speak, which could free up workers for conscription.

European dependence on Russian oil and gas evolved over decades. Now, reducing it is posing hard choices for EU countries.

Restricting Russian oil profits

Russia’s call-up of reservists also includes workers from companies specifically focused on oil. This has led some seasoned analysts to question whether supply disruptions might spread to oil, either by accident or on purpose.

One potential trigger is the Dec. 5, 2022, deadline for the start of phase six of European Union energy sanctions against Russia. Confusion about the package of restrictions and how they will relate to a cap on what buyers will pay for Russian crude oil has muted market volatility so far. But when the measures go into effect, they could initiate a new spike in oil prices.

Under this sanctions package, Europe will completely stop buying seaborne Russian crude oil. This step isn’t as damaging as it sounds, since many buyers in Europe have already shifted to alternative oil sources.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, it exported roughly 1.4 million barrels per day of crude oil to Europe by sea, divided between Black Sea and Baltic routes. In recent months, European purchases have fallen below 1 million barrels per day. But Russia has actually been able to increase total flows from Black Sea and Baltic ports by redirecting crude oil exports to China, India and Turkey.

Russia has limited access to tankers, insurance and other services associated with moving oil by ship. Until recently, it acquired such services mainly from Europe. The change means that customers like China, India and Turkey have to transfer some of their purchases of Russian oil at sea from Russian-owned or chartered ships to ships sailing under other nations’ flags, whose services might not be covered by the European bans. This process is common and not always illegal, but often is used to evade sanctions by obscuring where shipments from Russia are ending up.

To compensate for this costly process, Russia is discounting its exports by US$40 per barrel. Observers generally assume that whatever Russian crude oil European buyers relinquish this winter will gradually find alternative outlets.

Where is Russian oil going?

The U.S. and its European allies aim to discourage this increased outflow of Russian crude by further limiting Moscow’s access to maritime services, such as tanker chartering, insurance and pilots licensed and trained to handle oil tankers, for any crude oil exports to third parties outside of the G-7 who pay rates above the U.S.-EU price cap. In my view, it will be relatively easy to game this policy and obscure how much Russia’s customers are paying.

On Sept. 9, 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued new guidance for the Dec. 5 sanctions regime. The policy aims to limit the revenue Russia can earn from its oil while keeping it flowing. It requires that unless buyers of Russian oil can certify that oil cargoes were bought for reduced prices, they will be barred from obtaining European maritime services.

However, this new strategy seems to be failing even before it begins. Denmark is still making Danish pilots available to move tankers through its precarious straits, which are a vital conduit for shipments of Russian crude and refined products. Russia has also found oil tankers that aren’t subject to European oversight to move over a third of the volume that it needs transported, and it will likely obtain more.

Traders have been getting around these sorts of oil sanctions for decades. Tricks of the trade include blending banned oil into other kinds of oil, turning off ship transponders to avoid detection of ship-to-ship transfers, falsifying documentation and delivering oil into and then later out of major storage hubs in remote parts of the globe. This explains why markets have been sanguine about the looming European sanctions deadline.

One fuel at a time

But Russian President Vladimir Putin may have other ideas. Putin has already threatened a larger oil cutoff if the G-7 tries to impose its price cap, warning that Europe will be “as frozen as a wolf’s tail,” referencing a Russian fairy tale.

U.S. officials are counting on the idea that Russia won’t want to damage its oil fields by turning off the taps, which in some cases might create long-term field pressurization problems. In my view, this is poor logic for multiple reasons, including Putin’s proclivity to sacrifice Russia’s economic future for geopolitical goals.

A woman walks past a billboard reading: Stop buying fossil fuels. End the war.
Stand With Ukraine campaign coordinator Svitlana Romanko demonstrates in front of the European Parliament on Sept. 27, 2022. Thierry Monasse/Getty Images

Russia managed to easily throttle back oil production when the COVID-19 pandemic destroyed world oil demand temporarily in 2020, and cutoffs of Russian natural gas exports to Europe have already greatly compromised Gazprom’s commercial future. Such actions show that commercial considerations are not a high priority in the Kremlin’s calculus.

How much oil would come off the market if Putin escalates his energy war? It’s an open question. Global oil demand has fallen sharply in recent months amid high prices and recessionary pressures. The potential loss of 1 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil shipments to Europe is unlikely to jack the price of oil back up the way it did initially in February 2022, when demand was still robust.

Speculators are betting that Putin will want to keep oil flowing to everyone else. China’s Russian crude imports surged as high as 2 million barrels per day following the Ukraine invasion, and India and Turkey are buying significant quantities.

Refined products like diesel fuel are due for further EU sanctions in February 2023. Russia supplies close to 40% of Europe’s diesel fuel at present, so that remains a significant economic lever.

The EU appears to know it must kick dependence on Russian energy completely, but its protected, one-product-at-a-time approach keeps Putin potentially in the driver’s seat. In the U.S., local diesel fuel prices are highly influenced by competition for seaborne cargoes from European buyers. So U.S. East Coast importers could also be in for a bumpy winter.

This article has been updated to reflect conflicting reports about the draft status of Russian oil and gas workers.

Amy Myers Jaffe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Three reasons a weak pound is bad news for the environment

Financial turmoil will make it harder to invest in climate action on a massive scale.

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Dragon Claws / shutterstock

The day before new UK chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget plan for economic growth, a pound would buy you about $1.13. After financial markets rejected the plan, the pound suddenly sunk to around $1.07. Though it has since rallied thanks to major intervention from the Bank of England, the currency remains volatile and far below its value earlier this year.

A lot has been written about how this will affect people’s incomes, the housing market or overall political and economic conditions. But we want to look at why the weak pound is bad news for the UK’s natural environment and its ability to hit climate targets.

1. The low-carbon economy just became a lot more expensive

The fall in sterling’s value partly signals a loss in confidence in the value of UK assets following the unfunded tax commitments contained in the mini-budget. The government’s aim to achieve net zero by 2050 requires substantial public and private investment in energy technologies such as solar and wind as well as carbon storage, insulation and electric cars.

But the loss in investor confidence threatens to derail these investments, because firms may be unwilling to commit the substantial budgets required in an uncertain economic environment. The cost of these investments may also rise as a result of the falling pound because many of the materials and inputs needed for these technologies, such as batteries, are imported and a falling pound increases their prices.

Aerial view of wind farm with forest and fields in background
UK wind power relies on lots of imported parts. Richard Whitcombe / shutterstock

2. High interest rates may rule out large investment

To support the pound and to control inflation, interest rates are expected to rise further. The UK is already experiencing record levels of inflation, fuelled by pandemic-related spending and Russia’s war on Ukraine. Rising consumer prices developed into a full-blown cost of living crisis, with fuel and food poverty, financial hardship and the collapse of businesses looming large on this winter’s horizon.

While the anticipated increase in interest rates might ease the cost of living crisis, it also increases the cost of government borrowing at a time when we rapidly need to increase low-carbon investment for net zero by 2050. The government’s official climate change advisory committee estimates that an additional £4 billion to £6 billion of annual public spending will be needed by 2030.

Some of this money should be raised through carbon taxes. But in reality, at least for as long as the cost of living crisis is ongoing, if the government is serious about green investment it will have to borrow.

Rising interest rates will push up the cost of borrowing relentlessly and present a tough political choice that seemingly pits the environment against economic recovery. As any future incoming government will inherit these same rates, a falling pound threatens to make it much harder to take large-scale, rapid environmental action.

3. Imports will become pricier

In addition to increased supply prices for firms and rising borrowing costs, it will lead to a significant rise in import prices for consumers. Given the UK’s reliance on imports, this is likely to affect prices for food, clothing and manufactured goods.

At the consumer level, this will immediately impact marginal spending as necessary expenditures (housing, energy, basic food and so on) lower the budget available for products such as eco-friendly cleaning products, organic foods or ethically made clothes. Buying “greener” products typically cost a family of four around £2,000 a year.

Instead, people may have to rely on cheaper goods that also come with larger greenhouse gas footprints and wider impacts on the environment through pollution and increased waste. See this calculator for direct comparisons.

Of course, some spending changes will be positive for the environment, for example if people use their cars less or take fewer holidays abroad. However, high-income individuals who will benefit the most from the mini-budget tax cuts will be less affected by the falling pound and they tend to fly more, buy more things, and have multiple cars and bigger homes to heat.

This raises profound questions about inequality and injustice in UK society. Alongside increased fuel poverty and foodbank use, we will see an uptick in the purchasing power of the wealthiest.

What’s next

Interest rate rises increase the cost of servicing government debt as well as the cost of new borrowing. One estimate says that the combined cost to government of the new tax cuts and higher cost of borrowing is around £250 billion. This substantial loss in government income reduces the budget available for climate change mitigation and improvements to infrastructure.

The government’s growth plan also seems to be based on an increased use of fossil fuels through technologies such as fracking. Given the scant evidence for absolutely decoupling economic growth from resource use, the opposition’s “green growth” proposal is also unlikely to decarbonise at the rate required to get to net zero by 2050 and avert catastrophic climate change.

Therefore, rather than increasing the energy and materials going into the economy for the sake of GDP growth, we would argue the UK needs an economic reorientation that questions the need of growth for its own sake and orients it instead towards social equality and ecological sustainability.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Covid-19 roundup: Swiss biotech halts in-patient PhII study; Houston-based vaccine and Chinese mRNA shot nab EUAs in Indonesia

Another Covid-19 study is hitting the breaks as a Swiss biotech is pausing its Phase II trial in patients hospitalized with Covid-19.
Kinarus Therapeutics…

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Another Covid-19 study is hitting the breaks as a Swiss biotech is pausing its Phase II trial in patients hospitalized with Covid-19.

Kinarus Therapeutics announced on Friday that the Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) has reviewed the company’s Phase II study for its candidate KIN001 and has recommended that the study be stopped.

According to Kinarus, the DSMB stated that there was a low probability to show statistically significant results as the number of Covid-19 patients that are in the hospital is lower than at other points in the pandemic.

Thierry Fumeaux

“As many of our peers have learned since the beginning of the pandemic, it has become challenging to show the impact of therapeutic intervention at the current pandemic stage, given the disease characteristics in Covid-19 patients with severe disease. Moreover, there are also now relatively smaller numbers of patients that meet enrollment criteria, since fewer patients require hospitalization, in contrast to the situation earlier in the pandemic,” said Thierry Fumeaux, Kinarus CMO, in a statement.

Fumeaux continued to state that the drug will still be investigated in ambulatory Covid-19 patients who are not hospitalized, with the goal of reducing recovery time and the severity of the virus.

The KIN001 candidate is a combination of the small molecule inhibitor pamapimod and pioglitazone, which is currently used to treat type 2 diabetes.

The news has put a dampener on the company’s stock price $KNRS.SW, which is down 22% since opening on Friday.

Houston-developed vaccine and Chinese mRNA shot win EUAs in Indonesia

While Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech’s mRNA shots to counter Covid-19 have dominated supplies worldwide, a Chinese-based mRNA developer and IndoVac, a recombinant protein-based vaccine, was created and engineered in Houston, Texas by the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development  vaccine is finally ready to head to another nation.

Walvax and Suzhou Abogen’s mRNA vaccine, dubbed AWcorna, has been approved for emergency use for adults 18 and over by the Indonesian Food and Drug Authority.

Li Yunchun

“This is the first step, and we are hoping to see more families across the country and the rest of the globe protected, which is a shared goal for us all,” said Walvax Chairman Li Yunchun, in a statement.

According to Walvax, the vaccine is 83% effective against the “wild-type” of SARS-CoV-2 infection with the strength against the Omicron variants standing at around 71%. The shots are also not required to be stored in deep freeze conditions and can be put in storage at 2 to 8 degrees Celsius.

Walvax and Abogen have been making progress on their mRNA vaccine for a while. Last year, Abogen received a massive amount of funding as it was moving the candidate forward.

However, while the candidate is moving forward overseas, it’s still finding itself stuck in regulatory approval in China. According to a report from BNN Bloomberg, China has not approved any mRNA vaccines for domestic usage.

Meanwhile, PT Bio Farma, the holding company for state-owned pharma companies in Indonesia, is prepping to make 20 million doses of the IndoVac COVID-19 vaccine this year and 100 million doses by 2024.

IndoVac’s primary series vaccines include nearly 80% of locally sourced content. Indonesia is seeking Halal Certification for the vaccine since no animal cells or products were used in the production of the vaccine. IndoVac successfully completed an audit from the Indonesian Ulema Council Food and Drug Analysis Agency, and the Halal Certification Agency of the Religious Affairs Ministry is expected to grant their approval soon.

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