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Week Ahead: Bank of Canada to reduce purchases; Global Economic Recovery to pickup

The global economic recovery is gaining momentum as the world’s two largest economies continue to deliver robust economic readings.  China’s economy grew 18.3% in the first quarter, a record rate that sets the example of what we can expect as the…

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3 years ago

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The global economic recovery is gaining momentum as the world’s two largest economies continue to deliver robust economic readings.  China’s economy grew 18.3% in the first quarter, a record rate that sets the example of what we can expect as the rest of the world recovers from COVID-19.  The US saw weekly jobless fall to a pandemic low and retail sales explode after Americans put their $1,400 stimulus checks to work.  US stocks are steadily making fresh record highs and that could continue if Treasury yields take their time in recapturing the highs made at the end of March.

The taper tantrum might seem to be far away for the US, but it is already here for Canada.  The Bank of Canada is positioned to reduce weekly bond purchases at the April 21st policy decision.  The economic situation is much more optimistic than it was in the January meeting and Wall Street is now expecting the first BOC rate increase in the second half of 2022, with five total hikes through the end of 2023.

It is a busy week, with rate decisions, flash PMIs , and a wrath of CPI releases that could tilt some central banks into tightening a lot sooner.  Financial markets will continue to track developments over the J&J vaccine as that will have an impact on the short-term outlook with vaccine distributions across Europe and emerging markets.  The ECB will try not to commit to anything and maintain a wait-and-see approach regarding inflation rates and bond yields.  ECB President Lagarde will likely focus on the risks and uncertainty over vaccine rollouts and reopenings.  The June 10th meeting will be key for them.

BOC expected to reduce weekly asset purchases.

ECB to provide minor hints over how the pace of asset purchases will change in the summer.

Russian Central Bank to raise interest rates.

Country

US

The dollar fell to a fresh four-week low as bond market volatility took the 10-year Treasury yield below the 1.60% level, a key level that had a lot of options tied to it.  The slide in Treasury yields surprised many traders and if sustained could keep the pressure on the greenback despite a steady wave of better-than expected data.

The economic boom for the US is here after jobless claims fell to a pandemic low, retail sales surged and all regional surveys all confirmed a robust outlook.  Wall Street also got its first dose of inflation as the economy strengthened and energy prices climbed higher.  The inflation debate will go on for months, but for now it seems the Fed’s call for it to be transitory will hold.

The upcoming week could show weekly jobless claims increase by 62,000 to 638K and existing home sales soften slightly to 6.20 million in March.  On Friday, the flash Markit PMI readings should see strong gains in both manufacturing and service sectors with new home sales rebounding from 775,000 to 875,000.

Canada

Canada will release its first budget in two years. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is expected to pledge tens of billions of dollars in spending to boost the economic recovery. Trudeau has a minority government and has hinted at a federal election later this year.

The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday and is expected to start tightening policy by announcing that it will taper its purchase of government bonds. This would make the BoC the first of the G-7 central banks to tighten policy since the Covid-19 pandemic. The BoC is expected to make this move in response to the economy’s recovery, which has been more robust than anticipated.

EU

The ECB holds its policy meeting on Thursday. The central bank is expected to maintain current policy and hold the Main Refinancing Rate at 0.00%. The bank will likely confirm that its asset purchases under its pandemic programme (PEPP) will run at a faster pace until June. ECB President Christine Lagarde has committed to continue the asset purchases until March 2022.

In Germany, the manufacturing sector remains a bright spot with strong growth, but services has been lagging due to the repeated lockdowns which has reduced business activity. German Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be released on Friday, with a forecast of 65.7 and 51.4, respectively. The 50-level separates contraction from expansion.

UK

The upcoming week will be heavy on UK data, which could mean an eventful week for the British pound. On Tuesday, the UK releases key employment numbers (March Jobless Claims Change and Claimant Count Rate), with the ILO unemployment (rolling three months) for February projected to rise to 5.1%, up from 5.0%. This will be followed on Wednesday with the inflation report. March CPI (YoY) is expected to jump from 0.9%, up from the current 0.4%. Friday wraps up with an expected softer retail sales report for March and improving flash PMI data for the April. The Manufacturing and Services PMIs estimates both stand at 59.0, pointing to strong growth.

Emerging Markets

Turkey

The Turkish Central Bank kept interest rates on hold last week, at 19%. The rate decision was the first for the new central bank governor, Sahap Kavcioglu. The governor bowed to market conditions, in particular inflation of 16.2% in March, and did not cut rates. However, the bank removed its tightening bias and scrapped the end-2021 inflation target, which was a dovish move. There is strong political pressure on the bank to lower rates, and this could mean a rate cut in the third quarter or earlier.

The Turkish lira has plunged about 11% since Naci Agbal was fired as the central bank governor in March. This means that inflation is likely to rise further in the coming months.

Russia

Russia’s central bank meets on Friday. The bank is expected to hike rates by 0.25%, which would bring the key rate to 4.75%. The bank raised rates by 0.25% in March, commencing its tightening cycle in response to rising inflation.

U.S. financial institutions will be barred from entry to Russia’s primary market for new, ruble-denominated sovereign debt, beginning June 14.

Ruble volatility could ease if investors continue to believe that Russian sanctions will have a limited impact.

China

China equity markets were dealt a blow after the PBOC tightened liquidity and after a mixed round of key economic data.  China’s record growth of 18.3% in the first quarter will be the peak and now start to trend lower.  The domestic outlook is improving following a better-than-expected retail sales reading, but the Huarong debt issues and tighter liquidity could remain a drag for Chinese stocks.

The Yuan has slowly appreciated against the dollar on the break of the 6.5500 level.  The bond market rally could continue and that should support some further yuan strength.

The big release of the week will be China’s loan prime rates, which are expected to stay anchored.  The 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates should stay at 3.85% and 4.65% respectively.

India

India’s outlook continues to deteriorate as Covid-19 cases continue a chaotic surge.  India’s two largest cities shut down after new virus cases jumped over 200,000.  The rupee is Asia’s worst performing currency and that could remain the case until the current COVID wave eases.

The focus for India will primarily be on the COVID situation, with some traders eyeing the upcoming bills auction. Indian sovereign bond yields jumped higher after the RBI’s first QE debt purchases.  If anemic demand hits these next rounds of auctions, yields could continue to rise.

No economic releases are expected next week.

Australia & New Zealand

The New Zealand dollar has been strengthening after the RBNZ policy mostly went as expected with no changes with interest rates or its large-scale asset purchases. The bank is prepared to lower the benchmark interest rate if required, but the risks to the economic outlook remain balanced.  Stop loss buying sent the kiwi higher, but that could continue if Treasury yields remain depressed.

A wrath of Australian economic data should show the economic recovery is improving.  On Wednesday, the March retail sales reading is expected to improve on a monthly basis from -0.8% to +1.0%.  A close eye will be kept on the flash PMI readings, which should see manufacturing and services remain in expansionary territory.  The minutes of the April policy meeting will provide more clarity over concerns over the frothy housing market and low wages.

Japan

Japan’s trade data is expected to swing back from a deficit to a surplus.  Exports should continue to improve given the strong recoveries from the world’s two largest economies.  The domestic situation is still depressed, and imports should lag the gains seen in the prior month.   It seems the latest virus spread will trigger another round of restrictions that should continue to be a headwind for equities.

On Friday, Japan’s national CPI readings should show deflationary pressures remain.

USD/JPY has declined for two consecutive weeks following the recent weakness with Treasury yields.  BOJ could start to decrease purchases and that should thwart some yen strength.  The 108.00 level should remain massive support for dollar-yen as long as Treasury yields start to stabilize.

Markets

Oil

Crude prices are rallying on an improved demand outlook now that the pace of vaccinations is improving dramatically across Western Europe.  Concerns over both the J&J and AstraZeneca COVID vaccines are waning as Pfizer, Moderna, Sputnik, and other vaccines ramp up supplies.  If the UK reopening of non-essential retail and outdoor hospitality is successful, crude demand forecasts could get massively upgraded on hopes that the rest of Europe will just be a couple months behind them.

Global stockpiles are continuing to decline and that should also support the bullish case for oil prices.  The dollar outlook has shifted quickly and if further weakness continues, the super commodity cycle could provide an additional level of underlying support for crude prices.

Gold

Gold bulls are rejoicing a strong trading week as weaker bond yields are keeping the dollar vulnerable to further losses.  Gold’s primary driver is real yields and now that the 10-year real yield is back at the March lows, investors had to reset their expectations over the path of bond yields.  Treasury yields will end the year significantly higher, but the short-term likely supports an extended consolidation that could see further downward pressure for Treasury yields.

Gold’s bullish streak could see further momentum now that China has given banks permission to import bullion.  Gold has massive support at the $1750 level and tentative resistance at the $1800 region, followed by the $1858 level.

Bitcoin

Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public and triggered a new wave of retail and institutional interest for cryptocurrencies.  Bitcoin surged but that came to a tentative end on accelerated profit-taking after news hit that Turkey bans crypto payments.

The biggest fear for many crypto traders has always been that big governments might impose harsh restrictions on cryptocurrencies.  The situation Turkey is rather unique given the government is doing everything in their power to stabilize their currency.  Many on Wall Street believe that the lira is poised to fall over 10% in the short-term and that is forcing Turkey to impose capital controls and now also prevent lira’s going into Bitcoin.

Bitcoin volatility will remain elevated and the recent Dogecoin bubble could trigger a massive risk-off environment for all cryptocurrencies.

Key Economic Events

Monday, April 19

– Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau’s government releases its first budget in two years.

– U.K. Fintech Week starts with a keynote speech by Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak.

– Riksbank Deputy Governor Breman gives speaks on the economic risks of climate change.

Economic Data/Events:

  • Japan industrial production, trade, capacity utilization
  • UK Rightmove house prices

Tuesday, April 20

Economic Data/Events:

  • Japan tertiary industry index, machine tool orders
  • UK Unemployment
  • Russia unemployment, retail sales, real wages
  • Australia RBA minutes of April policy meeting
  • Germany PPI
  • Czech PPI
  • Apple’s Spring Loaded Event (new iPad Pro line, AirTags, and a new iMac are expected
  • Netflix reports after the close

Wednesday, April 21

– Russian President Putin delivers his annual address to the nation.

– BOE Governor Bailey speaks on “Diversity and Market Intelligence”

– BOE Deputy Governor Ramsden gives Wednesday’s keynote speech at U.K. Fintech Week.

Economic Data/Events:

  • Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to taper its weekly bond purchases
  • BOC Gov Macklem press conference
  • Australia retail sales, Westpac leading index
  • Japan supermarket sales
  • South Korea PPI
  • Canada CPI
  • South Africa CPI
  • New Zealand CPI
  • Russia CPI
  • UK CPI, retail price index
  • Poland average wages, employment, PPI
  • EIA crude oil inventory report

Thursday, April 22

– Earth Day 2021. The theme this year is “Restore Our Earth.”

– President Biden Invites 40 World Leaders to Leaders Summit on Climate

Economic Data/Events:

  • European Central Bank rate decision: Expected to keep policy unchanged, affirming that asset purchases will run at a faster clip until June.
  • ECB rate decisions presser with President Christine Lagarde
  • US initial jobless claims, leading index, existing home sales Mar: 6.21M estimate v 6.22 prior
  • Eurozone Apr Advance consumer confidence: -11.5 estimate v -10.8 prior
  • Thailand trade
  • Australia NAB business confidence
  • Mexico Unemployment
  • France manufacturing confidence
  • Poland retail sales
  • Russia gold and forex reserves
  • Netherlands unemployment, consumer spending
  • Switzerland imports/exports
  • Ireland PPI

Friday, April 23

Economic Data/Events:

  • US Apr Prelim Markit manufacturing PMI: 60.0 estimate v 59.1 prior, new home sales
  • Eurozone Apr Prelim Manufacturing PMI: 62.2 estimate v 62.5 prior
  • Germany Apr Prelim Manufacturing PMI: 65.7 estimate v 66.6 prior
  • UK Manufacturing PMI
  • Australia Manufacturing PMI
  • Russian Central Bank (CBR) Interest rate decision: expected to raise Key Rate 25bps to 4.75%
  • Russian rate decision press conference with Governor Nabiullina
  • Japan CPI
  • Singapore CPI
  • Japan manufacturing PMI, department store sales
  • Taiwan industrial production
  • Thailand foreign reserves
  • Mexico retail sales
  • UK retail sales, GfK consumer confidence, public sector net borrowing
  • Baker Hughes rig count

Sovereign Rating Updates

– Finland (Fitch)

– Netherlands (Fitch)

– EFSF (S&P)

– Greece (S&P)

– Italy (S&P)

– U.K. (S&P)

– Finland (DBRS)

 

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

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2 hours ago

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March 9, 2024

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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6 hours ago

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March 9, 2024

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

“When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

“It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

Published

7 hours ago

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March 9, 2024

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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