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Week Ahead – All About the Fed and NFP

US Will the fourth 75 basis-point rate hike be the last major rise before the Fed downshifts in December?  Next week’s FOMC decision is widely expecting…

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Will the fourth 75 basis-point rate hike be the last major rise before the Fed downshifts in December?  Next week’s FOMC decision is widely expecting a unanimous vote for one last major rate increase. With the Fed’s preferred price measure still showing inflation is running hot, that might make it harder for them to set up a possible downshift in its rate-hike pace for the December meeting. Despite an acceleration with inflation, strong consumer spending data, and a robust labor market, much of Wall Street is growing confident that the Fed will pause tightening once they take the funds rate to 4.50-4.75% next quarter.

In addition to the FOMC decision, traders will also closely monitor the nonfarm payroll report.  The strong labor market is still expected to show job growth with 200,000 jobs created in October, down from the 263,000 created in the prior month. The unemployment rate is expected to tick higher and wage gains are expected to slow.

It will be another busy week filled with earnings that will likely confirm the slowdown being seen across the economy.  Healthcare, consumer discretionary, energy, and car manufacturer stocks will report next week.

EU

Inflation has hit double-digits and remains the ECB’s number one priority. The Eurozone releases its inflation report on Monday.

Inflation rose to 10.0% in September, and it is expected to surge to 10.3% in October. Some analysts are expecting a possible surge to 11.0%.  Core inflation is projected to tick higher to 4.9%.

The Eurozone will release the October Final PMIs, which are projected to indicate contraction, with readings below the 50.0 level. Manufacturing will be released on Wednesday and Services on Friday. Manufacturing is expected at 46.6 and Services at 48.2, confirming the initial estimates.

UK

The UK releases Final PMIs for October, with Manufacturing on Tuesday, Services on Thursday and Construction on Friday. The 50.0 line separates contraction from expansion.

The initial readings were 45.8 for manufacturing and 47.5 for services, indicative of weak economic activity in the UK. Construction may provide a silver lining, with an initial reading of 52.3, pointing to slight expansion.

The highlight of the week will be the Bank of England’s rate decision on Thursday. The BoE raised rates by 0.50% in September and is expected to go all in with a jumbo 0.75% hike, which would bring the cash rate to 3.0%. The vote could have two dissenters, which is why markets are expecting a downshift to a half-point pace in December.  The UK may already be in a recession and higher rates will hurt households and businesses, but the BoE has little choice but to continue tightening if it hopes to curb red-hot inflation, which is at 10.1%.

 

Russia

The war in Ukraine and the severe Western sanctions have taken a steep toll on consumer spending. In August, real retail sales plunged by 8.8% and September is supposed to be just as bad with an 8.6% decline.

South Africa

South Africa’s recovery from Covid-19 has been slow and a weak global economy is not helping matters.

The October PMI will be released on Thursday. The PMI is expected to rise slightly to 49.7, following a 49.2 read in September. A reading below 50.0 indicates contraction.

Turkey

Turkey will release the October inflation report on Wednesday. The Turkish central bank continues to slash interest rates, with a 150 basis point cut earlier in October. This policy has seen inflation soar to staggering levels that is more than 17 times the CBRT’s target rate.  CPI rose to a 24-year high of 83.4% in September, and the consensus for October stands at 85.6%.

 

Switzerland

Switzerland releases the October inflation report on Thursday. Inflation has been rising in Switzerland, which forced the central bank to raise interest rates by a massive 0.75% in September. Still, inflation is much lower than in the Eurozone or the UK. Headline CPI is expected to tick lower to 3.2%, down from 3.3% in September.

 

China

Strict anti-COVID measures are about to send China’s factory activity back  into contraction territory. The global growth outlook will struggle as China’s economy shows their recovery is struggling. Both services and manufacturing data are expected to weaken in October.

Currency traders will pay close attention to the PBOC as they have set the yuan reference rate at the weakest levels since 2008. Authorities want a strong yuan, but defending it could prove costly.  They might need to consider narrowing the band.

India

India’s economy is losing momentum and the latest PMI readings might confirm that trend.  The growth outlook continues to get slashed and the current rate hiking cycle is starting to weigh much more on the economy.

The RBI will have an an out-of-cycle meeting next week as the government urges them to get inflation back under 6%.  Traders should not be surprised if some RBI action occurs before the December 5-7th policy decision.

Australia & New Zealand

The focus is on the RBA policy decision. This meeting could have some added volatility as the general consensus leans towards a 25bp rate rise, but a half-point increase should not be ruled out.  Inflation remains hot and with the cash rate nowhere near inflation, the bank might feel more pressure to act aggressively.

New Zealand’s third quarter Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data, due out next Wednesday (2 November), as an increase in employment and a decrease in unemployment will be beneficial to New Zealand’s economic growth. As the overall inflation level in New Zealand remains high, the money markets are pricing in either a half-point rise or 75- basis point rate hike at the RBNZ’s next interest rate meeting on November 23rd.

Japan

The Bank of Japan did not deliver any surprises. Both rates and the 10-year yield target did not have any changes. The yen remains a volatile trade and now the ball is in the Ministry of Finance hands. With momentum growing for the Fed to shift to a slower pace of tightening in December, Japan may try to be aggressive in defending the dollar-yen 150 level. Traders will also pay close attention to the minutes of the last BOJ decision.

Singapore

Singapore’s economy is weakening and the October PMI reading should show that the weakening trend continues. Traders will also pay close attention to the retail sales report for the month of September.

Markets

Energy

Oil markets remain volatile as China ramps up COVID restrictions, some US oil giants signal modest commitments to boost production, and the global economic outlook continues to dim.  Next week, energy traders will get a better sense of how China’s economy is performing despite the COVID lockdowns that happened in October. OPEC will also announce their World Oil Outlook on Monday.

Commodities broadly will also have a reaction to the FOMC policy decision and nonfarm payroll report. A dovish rate rise could allow for dollar weakness which could keep oil prices supported here.  If risk appetite remains healthy, WTI crude could continue to consolidate above the mid-$80s.

Gold

The bullish case for gold is improving as financial markets begin to grow optimistic that the Fed will begin the deliberation of a slower pace of tightening.  Gold could be on the verge of a major breakout if the FOMC decision is supported by the nonfarm payroll report at the end of the week.  Gold has initial support at $1640, with the line in the sand being $1,620.  The $1680 provides major resistance for gold, followed by the $1700 level.

Cryptos

Bitcoin is forming a trading around the $20,000 level as many investors await to see what happens with next week’s market reaction to the FOMC decision. What will also draw extra attention is the Hong Kong Fintech Week, that includes appearances from FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, but could contain more insight on how Hong Kong will provide guidelines on how retail crypto trading could be allowed. Binance CEO Zhao and Ark’s Cathy Wood will speak at the Web Summit in Lisbon.


Economic Calendar

Sunday, Oct. 30

Economic Data/Events:

  • Brazilians vote in a presidential runoff election between Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.
  • Daylight savings time ends in the UK
  • EU trade ministers informal meeting in Prague

Monday, Oct. 31

Economic Data/Events:

  • Eurozone CPI, GDP
  • Poland CPI
  • Mexico GDP
  • Australia retail sales
  • China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI
  • Japan industrial production, retail sales, housing starts
  • South Africa trade balance
  • Thailand trade
  • UK mortgage approvals
  • Danmarks Nationalbank conference, speakers include ECB Chief Economist Lane, Riksbank Governor Ingves, and Norges Bank Governor Wolden Bache
  • Bank of Italy Governor Visco and Italian Finance Minister Giorgetti speak at a World Savings Day event.
  • Nordic prime ministers meet in Helsinki for a Nordic Council meeting.
  • Hong Kong Fintech Week: Speakers include FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission’s Yuanqi and the Securities and Futures Commission’s Leung as speakers.
  • OPEC launches its 2022 World Oil Outlook at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference.
  • Russian President Putin meets the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the southern Russian city of Sochi.

Tuesday, Nov. 1

Economic Data/Events:

  • US construction spending, ISM manufacturing index, light vehicle sales
  • RBA rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 15bp to 2.85%
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
  • Canada Manufacturing PMI
  • Czech Republic Manufacturing PMI
  • India Manufacturing PMI
  • Japan Manufacturing PMI, Vehicle Sales
  • Mexico Manufacturing PMI
  • Norway Manufacturing PMI
  • Russia Manufacturing PMI
  • South Africa Manufacturing PMI
  • UK Manufacturing PMI
  • Czech Republic GDP
  • Macau casino revenue
  • Mexico international reserves
  • New Zealand building permits
  • Denmark’s general election
  • Riksbank Governor Ingves gives a speech on the economy and monetary policy, in Helsingborg.
  • Web Summit conference; Speakers include Binance CEO Zhao and ARK Investment Management’s Wood

Wednesday, Nov. 2

Economic Data/Events:

  • FOMC Decision: Expected to raise rates by 75bps
  • US MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment
  • European Manufacturing PMI: Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain
  • Australia building approvals
  • Germany unemployment
  • Japan BOJ minutes of Sept. meeting
  • New Zealand unemployment, central bank Financial Stability Report
  • Russia unemployment, retail sales
  • EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report
  • Bank of Ireland’s Financial System Conference: Speakers include Irish Central Bank Governor Makhlouf, Finance Minister Donohoe and Bank of France Governor Villeroy In Dublin.

Thursday, Nov. 3

Economic Data/Events:

  • US factory orders, durable goods, trade, initial jobless claims, ISM services index
  • Bank of England Rate Decision: Expected to raise rates by 75bps to 3.00%
  • UK services PMI
  • Australia trade balance
  • China Caixin services PMI
  • Eurozone unemployment
  • India S&P Global services PMI
  • Italy unemployment
  • Norway rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 2.50%
  • Russia services PMI
  • Spain unemployment
  • G-7 foreign ministers to meet in Munster, Germany
  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits China
  • RBA’s Kearns speaks at the ASIC Annual Forum in Sydney.
  • ECB’s President Lagarde and Elderson speak at Latvijas Banka Economic Conference 2022.
  • ECB’s Panetta gives a keynote speech at ECB money market conference.
  • BOE’s Mann speaks on a panel about inflation at an American Enterprise Institute web event.

Friday, Nov. 4

Economic Data/Events:

  • US October Change in nonfarm payrolls: 200Ke v 263K prior, unemployment Rate to tick higher to 3.6%, Average Hourly Wages
  • European Services PMI: Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Spain
  • Japan Services PMI
  • Canada unemployment
  • Eurozone PPI
  • France industrial production
  • Germany factory orders
  • Singapore retail sales
  • Spain industrial production
  • Thailand CPI
  • The UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization releases its monthly index of world food prices.
  • ECB’s VP de Guindos gives a keynote speech at the Energy Prospectives session
  • ECB President Lagarde gives a lecture on monetary policy in the euro area organized by Estonia’s central bank.
  • Fed’s Collins speaks on macroeconomic conditions at a Brookings Institution virtual event.

Sovereign Rating Updates:

  • France (Fitch)
  • Ireland (Moody’s)
  • Norway (Moody’s)

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Bitcoin on Wheels: The Story of Bitcoinetas

Meet the Bitcoinetas, a fleet of transformative vehicles on a mission to spread the bitcoin message everywhere they go. From Argentina to South Africa,…

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You may have seen that picture of Michael Saylor in a bitcoin-branded van, with a cheerful guy right next to the car door. This one:

Ariel Aguilar and La Bitcoineta European Edition at BTC Prague.

That car is the Bitcoineta European Edition, and the cheerful guy is Ariel Aguilar. Ariel is part of the European Bitcoineta team, and has previously driven another similar car in Argentina. In fact, there are currently five cars around the world that carry the name Bitcoineta (in some cases preceded with the Spanish definite article “La”).

Argentina: the original La Bitcoineta

The story of Bitcoinetas begins with the birth of 'La Bitcoineta' in Argentina, back in 2017. Inspired by the vibrancy of the South American Bitcoin community, the original Bitcoineta was conceived after an annual Latin American Conference (Labitconf), where the visionaries behind it recognized a unique opportunity to promote Bitcoin education in remote areas. Armed with a bright orange Bitcoin-themed exterior and a mission to bridge the gap in financial literacy, La Bitcoineta embarked on a journey to bring awareness of Bitcoin's potential benefits to villages and towns that often remained untouched by mainstream financial education initiatives. Operated by a team of dedicated volunteers, it was more than just a car; it was a symbol of hope and empowerment for those living on the fringes of financial inclusion.

The concept drawing for La Bitcoineta from December 2017.

Ariel was part of that initial Argentinian Bitcoineta team, and spent weeks on the road when the car became a reality. The original dream to bring bitcoin education even to remote areas within Argentina and other South American countries came true, and the La Bitcoineta team took part in dozens of local bitcoin meetups in the subsequent years.

The original La Bitcoineta from Argentina.

One major hiccup came in late 2018, when the car was crashed into while parked in Puerto Madryn. The car was pretty much destroyed, but since the team was possessed by a honey badger spirit, nothing could stop them from keeping true to their mission. It is a testament to the determination and resilience of the Argentinian team that the car was quickly restored and returned on its orange-pilling quest soon after.

Argentinian Bitcoineta after a major accident (no-one got hurt); the car was restored shortly after.

Over the more than 5 years that the Argentinian Bitcoineta has been running, it has traveled more than 80,000 kilometers - and as we’ll see further, it inspired multiple similar initiatives around the world.

Follow La Bitcoineta’s journey:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/labitcoineta

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/bitcoineta/

El Salvador: Bitcoin Beach

In early 2021, the president of El Salvador passed the Bitcoin Law, making bitcoin legal tender in the country. The Labitconf team decided to celebrate this major step forward in bitcoin adoption by hosting the annual conference in San Salvador, the capital city of El Salvador. And correspondingly, the Argentinian Bitcoineta team made plans for a bold 7000-kilometer road trip to visit the Bitcoin country with the iconic Bitcoin car.

However, it proved to be impossible to cross so many borders separating Argentina and Salvador, since many governments were still imposing travel restrictions due to a Covid pandemic. So two weeks before the November event, the Labitconf team decided to fund a second Bitcoineta directly in El Salvador, as part of the Bitcoin Beach circular economy. Thus the second Bitcoineta was born.

Salvadoran’s Bitcoineta operates in the El Zonte region, where the Bitcoin Beach circular economy is located.

The eye-catching Volkswagen minibus has been donated to the Bitcoin Beach team, which uses the car for the needs of its circular economy based in El Zonte.

Follow Bitcoin Beach:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Bitcoinbeach

South Africa: Bitcoin Ekasi

Late 2021 saw one other major development in terms of grassroots bitcoin adoption. On the other side of the planet, in South Africa, Hermann Vivier initiated the Bitcoin Ekasi project. “Ekasi” is a colloquial term for a township, and a township in the South African context is an underdeveloped urban area with a predominantly black population, a remnant of the segregationist apartheid regime. Bitcoin Ekasi emerged as an attempt to introduce bitcoin into the economy of the JCC Camp township located in Mossel Bay, and has gained a lot of success on that front.

Bitcoin Ekasi was in large part inspired by the success of the Bitcoin Beach circular economy back in El Salvador, and the respect was mutual. The Bitcoin Beach team thus decided to pass on the favor they received from the Argentinian Bitcoineta team, and provided funds to Bitcoin Ekasi for them to build a Bitcoineta of their own.

Bitcoin Ekasi’s Bitcoineta as seen at the Adopting Bitcoin Cape Town conference.
Bitcoin Ekasi’s Bitcoineta as seen at the Adopting Bitcoin Cape Town conference. Hermann Vivier is seen in the background.
South African Bitcoineta serves the needs of Bitcoin Ekasi, a local bitcoin circular economy in the JCC Camp township.

Bitcoin Ekasi emerged as a sister organization of Surfer Kids, a non-profit organization with a mission to empower marginalized youths through surfing. The Ekasi Bitcoineta thus partially serves as a means to get the kids to visit various surfer competitions in South Africa. A major highlight in this regard was when the kids got to meet Jordy Smith, one of the most successful South African surfers worldwide.

Coincidentally, South African surfers present an intriguing demographic for understanding Bitcoin due to their unique circumstances and needs. To make it as a professional surfer, the athletes need to attend competitions abroad; but since South Africa has tight currency controls in place, it is often a headache to send money abroad for travel and competition expenses. The borderless nature of Bitcoin offers a solution to these constraints, providing surfers with an alternative means of moving funds across borders without any obstacles.

Photo taken at the South African Junior Surfing Championships 2023. Back row, left to right:

Mbasa, Chuma, Jordy Smith, Sandiso. Front, left to right: Owethu, Sibulele.

To find out more about Bitcoineta South Africa and the non-profit endeavors it serves, watch Lekker Feeling, a documentary by Aubrey Strobel:

Follow Bitcoin Ekasi:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/BitcoinEkasi

Fundraiser: https://support.bitcoinekasi.com/

Europe: Bitcoineta Europa

The European Bitcoineta started its journey in early 2023, with Ariel Aguilar being one of the main catalysts behind the idea. Unlike its predecessors in El Salvador and South Africa, the European Bitcoineta was not funded by a previous team but instead secured support from individual donors, reflecting a grassroots approach to spreading financial literacy.

European Bitcoineta sports a hard-to-overlook bitcoin logo along with the message “Bitcoin is Work. Bitcoin is Time. Bitcoin is Hope.”

The European Bitcoineta is a Mercedes box van adorned with a prominent Bitcoin logo and inspiring messages, and serves as a mobile hub for education and discussion at numerous European Bitcoin conferences and local meetups. Inside its spacious interior, both notable bitcoiners and bitcoin plebs share their insights on the walls, fostering a sense of camaraderie and collaboration.

Inside the European Bitcoineta, one can find the wall of fame, where visitors can read messages from prominent bitcoiners such as Michael Saylor, Uncle Rockstar, Javier Bastardo, Hodlonaut, and many others.
On the “pleb wall”, any bitcoiner can share their message (as long as space permits).

Follow Bitcoineta Europa’s journey:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/BitcoinetaEU

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/bitcoinetaeu/

Ghana: Bitcoineta West Africa

Embed: https://youtu.be/8oWgIU17aIY?si=hrsKmMIA7lI6jX4k

Introduced in December 2023 at the Africa Bitcoin Conference in Ghana, the fifth Bitcoineta was donated to the Ghanaian Bitcoin Cowries educational initiative as part of the Trezor Academy program.

Bitcoineta West Africa was launched in December 2023 at the Africa Bitcoin Conference. Among its elements, it bears the motto of the Trezor Academy initiative: Bitcoin. Education. Freedom.

Bitcoineta West Africa was funded by the proceeds from the bitcoin-only limited edition Trezor device, which was sold out within one day of its launch at the Bitcoin Amsterdam conference.

With plans for an extensive tour spanning Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, and potentially other countries within the ECOWAS political and economic union, Bitcoineta West Africa embodies the spirit of collaboration and solidarity in driving Bitcoin adoption and financial inclusion throughout the Global South.

Bitcoineta West Africa surrounded by a group of enthusiastic bitcoiners at the Black Star Square, Accra, Ghana.

Follow Bitcoineta West Africa’s journey:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/BitcoinetaWA

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/bitcoinetawa/

All the Bitcoineta cars around the world share one overarching mission: to empower their local communities through bitcoin education, and thus improve the lives of common people that might have a strong need for bitcoin without being currently aware of such need. As they continue to traverse borders and break down barriers, Bitcoinetas serve as a reminder of the power of grassroots initiatives and the importance of financial education in shaping a more inclusive future. The tradition of Bitcoinetas will continue to flourish, and in the years to come we will hopefully encounter a brazenly decorated bitcoin car everywhere we go.

If the inspiring stories of Bitcoinetas have ignited a passion within you to make a difference in your community, we encourage you to take action! Reach out to one of the existing Bitcoineta teams for guidance, support, and inspiration on how to start your own initiative. Whether you're interested in spreading Bitcoin education, promoting financial literacy, or fostering empowerment in underserved areas, the Bitcoineta community is here to help you every step of the way. Together, we will orange pill the world!

This is a guest post by Josef Tetek. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

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Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings

Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution…

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Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites.

“Such is unsurprising, given that retail investors often fall victim to the psychological behavior of the “fear of missing out.” The chart below shows the “dumb money index” versus the S&P 500. Once again, retail investors are very long equities relative to the institutional players ascribed to being the “smart money.””

“The difference between “smart” and “dumb money” investors shows that, more often than not, the “dumb money” invests near market tops and sells near market bottoms.”

Net Smart Dumb Money vs Market

That enthusiasm has increased sharply since last November as stocks surged in hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates. As noted by Sentiment Trader:

“Over the past 18 weeks, the straight-up rally has moved us to an interesting juncture in the Sentiment Cycle. For the past few weeks, the S&P 500 has demonstrated a high positive correlation to the ‘Enthusiasm’ part of the cycle and a highly negative correlation to the ‘Panic’ phase.”

Investor Enthusiasm

That frenzy to chase the markets, driven by the psychological bias of the “fear of missing out,” has permeated the entirety of the market. As noted in This Is Nuts:”

“Since then, the entire market has surged higher following last week’s earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA). The reason I say “this is nuts” is the assumption that all companies were going to grow earnings and revenue at Nvidia’s rate. There is little doubt about Nvidia’s earnings and revenue growth rates. However, to maintain that growth pace indefinitely, particularly at 32x price-to-sales, means others like AMD and Intel must lose market share.”

Nvidia Price To Sales

Of course, it is not just a speculative frenzy in the markets for stocks, specifically anything related to “artificial intelligence,” but that exuberance has spilled over into gold and cryptocurrencies.

Birds Of A Feather

There are a couple of ways to measure exuberance in the assets. While sentiment measures examine the broad market, technical indicators can reflect exuberance on individual asset levels. However, before we get to our charts, we need a brief explanation of statistics, specifically, standard deviation.

As I discussed in “Revisiting Bob Farrell’s 10 Investing Rules”:

“Like a rubber band that has been stretched too far – it must be relaxed in order to be stretched again. This is exactly the same for stock prices that are anchored to their moving averages. Trends that get overextended in one direction, or another, always return to their long-term average. Even during a strong uptrend or strong downtrend, prices often move back (revert) to a long-term moving average.”

The idea of “stretching the rubber band” can be measured in several ways, but I will limit our discussion this week to Standard Deviation and measuring deviation with “Bollinger Bands.”

“Standard Deviation” is defined as:

“A measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is calculated as the square root of the variance.”

In plain English, this means that the further away from the average that an event occurs, the more unlikely it becomes. As shown below, out of 1000 occurrences, only three will fall outside the area of 3 standard deviations. 95.4% of the time, events will occur within two standard deviations.

Standard Deviation Chart

A second measure of “exuberance” is “relative strength.”

“In technical analysis, the relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can read from 0 to 100.

Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.” – Investopedia

With those two measures, let’s look at Nvidia (NVDA), the poster child of speculative momentum trading in the markets. Nvidia trades more than 3 standard deviations above its moving average, and its RSI is 81. The last time this occurred was in July of 2023 when Nvidia consolidated and corrected prices through November.

NVDA chart vs Bollinger Bands

Interestingly, gold also trades well into 3 standard deviation territory with an RSI reading of 75. Given that gold is supposed to be a “safe haven” or “risk off” asset, it is instead getting swept up in the current market exuberance.

Gold vs Bollinger Bands

The same is seen with digital currencies. Given the recent approval of spot, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the panic bid to buy Bitcoin has pushed the price well into 3 standard deviation territory with an RSI of 73.

Bitcoin vs Bollinger Bands

In other words, the stock market frenzy to “buy anything that is going up” has spread from just a handful of stocks related to artificial intelligence to gold and digital currencies.

It’s All Relative

We can see the correlation between stock market exuberance and gold and digital currency, which has risen since 2015 but accelerated following the post-pandemic, stimulus-fueled market frenzy. Since the market, gold and cryptocurrencies, or Bitcoin for our purposes, have disparate prices, we have rebased the performance to 100 in 2015.

Gold was supposed to be an inflation hedge. Yet, in 2022, gold prices fell as the market declined and inflation surged to 9%. However, as inflation has fallen and the stock market surged, so has gold. Notably, since 2015, gold and the market have moved in a more correlated pattern, which has reduced the hedging effect of gold in portfolios. In other words, during the subsequent market decline, gold will likely track stocks lower, failing to provide its “wealth preservation” status for investors.

SP500 vs Gold

The same goes for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is substantially more volatile than gold and tends to ebb and flow with the overall market. As sentiment surges in the S&P 500, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies follow suit as speculative appetites increase. Unfortunately, for individuals once again piling into Bitcoin to chase rising prices, if, or when, the market corrects, the decline in cryptocurrencies will likely substantially outpace the decline in market-based equities. This is particularly the case as Wall Street can now short the spot-Bitcoin ETFs, creating additional selling pressure on Bitcoin.

SP500 vs Bitcoin

Just for added measure, here is Bitcoin versus gold.

Gold vs Bitcoin

Not A Recommendation

There are many narratives surrounding the markets, digital currency, and gold. However, in today’s market, more than in previous years, all assets are getting swept up into the investor-feeding frenzy.

Sure, this time could be different. I am only making an observation and not an investment recommendation.

However, from a portfolio management perspective, it will likely pay to remain attentive to the correlated risk between asset classes. If some event causes a reversal in bullish exuberance, cash and bonds may be the only place to hide.

The post Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings appeared first on RIA.

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Aging at AACR Annual Meeting 2024

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging…

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BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals

Credit: Impact Journals

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals

Impact Journals will be participating as an exhibitor at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2024 from April 5-10 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, California. This year, the AACR meeting theme is “Inspiring Science • Fueling Progress • Revolutionizing Care.”

Visit booth #4159 at the AACR Annual Meeting 2024 to connect with members of the Aging team.

About Aging-US:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed and archived by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed CentralWeb of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com​​ and connect with us:

  • Aging X
  • Aging Facebook
  • Aging Instagram
  • Aging YouTube
  • Aging LinkedIn
  • Aging SoundCloud
  • Aging Pinterest
  • Aging Reddit

Click here to subscribe to Aging publication updates.

For media inquiries, please contact media@impactjournals.com.


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