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Wall Street’s Most Accurate Analyst: “Today’s Bear Market Ends In October With The S&P At 3,000”

Wall Street’s Most Accurate Analyst: "Today’s Bear Market Ends In October With The S&P At 3,000"

Two weeks ago, just when everyone thought…

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Wall Street's Most Accurate Analyst: "Today's Bear Market Ends In October With The S&P At 3,000"

Two weeks ago, just when everyone thought that he couldn't turn any more bearish, BofA's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett, Wall Street's biggest bear who is by implication has also emerged as the most accurate sellside analyst (the average S&P price target of his peers is still around 4,700), stunned everyone when he told readers that while the mood on the street was already dismal, relaying the the Heard on the Street line was "I'm so bearish, and even I'm miserable", he warned that even though everyone was bearish, redemptions were just starting, and the real selling was only just beginning.

One week later - and much to the embarrassment of JPM's in house permabull who at the same time said to take the other side of the trade and to buy stocks - Hartnett was again been proven right, with the S&P tumbling and the Nasdaq suffering its worst month since the Lehman bankruptcy. Hartnett also correctly warned that the closer we got to the 4,000 "strange attractor" level, the more aggressive the selling would become (as we discussed in "Hartnett Turns Apocalyptic, Says Carnage To Accelerate With "Max Pain" And "Exit" Waiting Below 4,000")

Since then it's gotten even worse, providing the biggest bear on Wall Street with even more ammo for his latest weekly Flow Show note (available to pro subscribers in the usual place), and he wastes no time to terrify his readers of the hell that is coming, warning that with the NYSE Composite (US stocks + ADR's + bond ETFs) down -9% YTD to 100-week moving average, "recession/crises in past 25 years have always seen our fave Wall St barometer break decisively below this level (15350 today)...at 100wma;" And in case that's not enough, he also warns that "every crisis/recession sees meaningful dip below 100wma...game time!"

Extending this analogy to all bear markets - because the only ones who still don't realize that the S&P is in a brutal bear market are JPMorgan's strategists - Hartnett compiles the following useful information:

  • 9 bear markets in the past 140 years
  • Average price decline = 37.3%
  • Average duration is 289 days

And while past performance no guide to future performance, if it were, today's bear market ends Oct 19th '22 with S&P500 at 3000, Nasdaq at 10000.  There are two silver linings here:

  • first: many stocks are already there, i.e., 49% of Nasdaq >50% below their 52-week highs, 58% of Nasdaq >37.3% down, and 77% of index in bear market, i.e. down >20%;
  • second: bear markets are quicker than bull markets.

Hartnett next echoes what we said yesterday in our discussion of the BOE's shocking decision, which we said confirms the worst stagflationary case for the economy. According to the BofA strategist, the BoE projected UK CPI >10% by Oct'22, cut '23 GDP forecast 150bps to -0.25%; in other words, 10% inflation, 0% growth the living definition of stagflation. 

It's why to Hartnett, the correct relative playbook is 1973/74 and it shows that cash and commodities beat bonds & stocks (esp consumer & tech; note Big Tech starting to ape Nifty 50 crash).

Meanwhile, flows - which are always a leading indicator for sentiment - confirm that none of this is a shock to investors, and after some huge outflows in the past month, the latest weekly flows into the FOMC were massively “risk-off” as investors waved in the cash: $0.3bn from gold, $3.4bn from stocks, $9.1bn from bonds, $14.0bn from cash. Some more details:

  • big inflow to Treasuries ($6.0bn),
  • big outflow from TIPS ($3.2bn),
  • big outflow IG bonds ($7.3bn),
  • largest REIT (real estate) outflow ever ($2.2bn),
  • big outflow financials ($1.6bn),
  • 4-week average of flows to stocks turning most negative since May’20 when the Fed had to step in to bail out the market.

Turning from the past - both distant and recent - to the future, and Hartnett's 2022 View, it will come as no surprise that the BofA strategist is not exactly bullish. Here's how he see things playing out

  • Base case remains equity lows, yield highs yet to be reached
  • Wall St to spend much of '22 working through "inflation shock", "rates shock", "recession shock" = negative, volatile returns in absolute terms
  • Relative calls defensive...cash/volatility/commodities>stocks/bonds, IG>HY, defensives>cyclicals
  • Meantime as recession risks next move up in commodities should be tactically sold,
  • Lead indicators of bear market were trough in yields & US$ + peak in EM, crypto, speculative tech (e.g. biotech) in Q1'21; only once yields & US$ peak, and floor in EM, crypto, speculative tech follow, should risk be added, first and foremost in corporate bonds – we are not there yet (and note speculative tech will remain in bear market for next 2 years, a floor does not = new bull market)

Finally, Harnett turns to his favorite topic - the three types of shocks that define the transition from 2020 to 2022. According to the BofA strategist, in past 9 months “inflation shock” was priced-in slowly, “rates shock” was priced-in slowly, but “recession shock” was priced-in too quickly; this is a problem as stronger-than-expected economic data in H1’22 is causing market to price-in longer/bigger inflation/rates shock.

Inflation shock: inflation set to "peak" but lower inflation likely to be "transitory" given biggest macro story of ‘22...a lack of supply of energy, food, housing, labor relative to demand showing scant signs of improvement...

Energy...natural gas prices at highest since '08 as world scrambles to reconfigure energy supplies (note explosive upside of Russian ruble now at new highs vs sterling, euro, US dollar),

Food...fertilizer prices @ all-time highs = cost of food production up = supply of food down = price of food up, note corn prices @ new highs & food prices seriously vulnerable to super-spike on poor harvests,

Houses...mortgage rate surging but 93% of US mortgages are fixed and supply of existing homes near record low, as evidenced by housing permits highest since '74

Labor...there are 12mn US job openings versus a 6mn supply of unemployed workers , you do the math.

Rates shock: yes central banks on course to hike rates 251 times in 2022, yes net 34% tightening monetary policy most since '08, yes QT starts H2'22, yes not a lot rate hikes can do about broken supply chains; but yields & volatility will rise until Fed & central banks ahead of the curve...this week they moved further behind curve; US inflation 8%, EU inflation 8%, UK inflation heading >10%, yet they are quivering at the thought of selling $1 of bonds (QT) after buying $23,000,000,000,000 since Lehman, and $11,000,000,000,000 since COVID-19; little wonder bond vigilantes back to trading “end of central bank credibility” = volatility entrenched.

Recession shock: the economy today is strong, a problem; but macro data has turned from unambiguously strong to ambiguously strong; business confidence has stalled (see PMI’s) which threatens to stall improvement in labor market in H2; Asian FX devaluation discounts weaker Asian export growth...

... which discounts weaker US consumer; and quickest route to recession on Main St is via a sharp decline in asset valuations on Wall St, & risk of systemic events on bond/stock/real estate deleveraging in risk parity (RPAR)...

...  private equity, sovereign wealth funds, credit events in speculative tech, shadow banking, US consumer buy now, pay later models, Emerging Markets, zombie corporations, goes up with every rate hike.

There is more in the full Hartnett note, available to pro subscribers in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/07/2022 - 06:35

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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Uncategorized

February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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