As expected, Wall Street wins again. In 2020 and 2021, retail investors were chasing financial markets recklessly. Armed with sites like Reddit WallStreetBets and a Robinhood trading app, not to mention young investing mentors on social media, they believed they had the Wall Street “tiger by the tail.”
In January, we warned investors (mostly falling on deaf ears) that 2022 would likely be disappointing. To wit:
“From the mainstream media’s view, expectations are high that 2022 will be a continuation of 2021. Maybe such will be the case. However, as we laid out just recently, many of the headwinds that supported the ramp in speculative behaviors have, or will, reverse in the months ahead.”
- Tighter monetary policy and high valuations.
- Less liquidity globally as Central Banks slow accommodation.
- Less liquidity in the economy as the previous financial injections fade.
- Higher inflation reduces consumption.
- Weaker economic growth
- Weak consumer confidence due to inflation
- Flattening yield curve
- Weaker earnings growth
- Profit margin compression
- Weaker year-over-year comparisons of most economic data.
“As is always the case, the event that changes the “bullish psychology” is always unknown. However, the eventual market reversion is almost always a function of changes in liquidity or a contraction in earnings.
Most notably was the concluding sentence.
“Heading into 2022, a review of 2021 can undoubtedly provide some clues as to what potentially happens next. Notably, “record levels” of anything are records for a reason as it denotes the last period before the eventual reversion.“
In 2020 and 2021, we saw record IPO and SPAC issuance levels. Wall Street was happy to feed the stimulus-check-fueled feeding frenzy of retail investors.
Everyone forgot to ask, “why am I so lucky to get access to this investment?”
Wall Street Wins Again
It was interesting to hear retail investors crowing in chat rooms about how they were beating Wall Street at their own game. Such is not surprising given the massive gains retail traders made by taking on an excessive amount of risk and doing so with leverage.
As shown below, investors were eager to buy the IPOs of companies even though most of them generated no profits.
Special purpose acquisition vehicles (SPACs) were relatively unused until the firehose of pandemic liquidity spurred Wall Street capital markets teams into action, forming hundreds of companies to raise billions of dollars of equity in these so-called blank-check offerings.
However, as noted, retail traders forgot to ask WHY Wall Street offered this incredible opportunity to invest in these start-up companies? After all, if these companies are so valuable, why wouldn’t Wall Street keep these prized possessions?
But in a “speculative market,” such is not surprising. What is not surprising is how it ended.
There are still over 950 SPACs seeking to raise $239 billion from investors. Of this, $207 billion worth haven’t even found a target. Since the beginning of 2021, most of these SPACs are now underwater.
In hindsight, we now know that only Wall Street benefited by dumping a supply of speculative products to retail investors armed with a stimulus check and a trading app. Wall Street reaped the rewards of bringing these companies public and selling their shares at premium values to unsophisticated investors under the well-crafted story of “innovation.”
Not surprisingly, retail investors lost. Wall Street wins.
But, as shown, by the end of 2021, most IPOs and SPACs failed to work as well as hoped.
Lessons Learned And Relearned
The amount of speculation in the market in 2020 and 2021 was a warning sign that was easy to see. Yet, no one did. However, such is always the case when investors allow greed to trump basic logic.
As we noted then:
“The three most significant market risks heading into 2022 are a reversal of the things that supported the speculative attitude of investors over the last year: buybacks, liquidity, and earnings growth. Notably, the reversal of liquidity impacts every facet of the economy and markets, and earnings are the “bullish support” for overvaluation.”
Such was the case in 2022, which had the worst start to any trading year since the Great Depression.
As is always the case, investors must often relearn lessons the hard way during market cycles. Long bullish advances desensitize investors to the risk they are taking. Investors can take on leverage or buy poor fundamentals, and rising prices will cover those mistakes.
Unfortunately, when the “tide eventually goes out,” those mistakes are revealed in the most brutal of fashions.
Such is why, as an investor, the most important investing attribute is to step away from your “emotions” and look objectively at the market around you. As Howard Marks once quipped:
“In good times skepticism means recognizing the things that are too good to be true; that’s something everyone knows. But in bad times, it requires sensing when things are too bad to be true.
The things that terrify other people will probably terrify you too, but to be successful an investor has to be stalwart.
After all, most of the time the world doesn’t end, and if you invest when everyone else thinks it will, you’re apt to get some bargains.“
How you choose to manage your portfolio is entirely up to you. Every investment strategy has a consequence and will lose money from time to time.
The only difference is the amount of the loss, what causes it, and what you do about it.depression pandemic stimulus monetary policy trump stimulus
COVID antibody declines prompts call for booster jabs ASAP
Figures from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) have revealed that the number of people with higher
The post COVID antibody declines prompts call…
Figures from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) have revealed that the number of people with higher levels of COVID-19 antibodies in their blood is declining quickly – leading to calls for booster vaccination campaigns to be started as soon as possible.
The ONS survey – based on swab and blood samples from thousands of households across the country – found that the proportion of people in England with antibody levels of at least 800 ng/ml fell from 82.4% in March to 71.9% in mid-July.
The 12.7% decrease is “obviously concerning,” according to Dr Quinton Fivelman, chief scientific officer at private testing company London Medical Laboratory, who says the trend is the same in other countries of the UK.
“We already know the latest Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants are the most contagious yet and remain a potentially considerable threat to our health,” he said. “The UK population needs to retain a substantial number of antibodies going into the dangerous winter months.”
The finding comes as the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 continues to decrease in England, Wales and Scotland, with an uncertain trend, in Northern Ireland, according to the ONS’ latest update, which was published on 5 August.
Fivelman’s concern is that if the rate of decline continues, only 60% of the UK population will retain substantial antibodies if the next booster campaign for the over-50s and vulnerable people gets underway in early October.
“The new Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants do not produce as high an immune response as the previous strains, so re-infection is more likely to occur,” he points out. “Higher levels of antibodies are important to neutralise the virus, stopping infection and limiting people transmitting the virus to others.”
On the plus side, the UK’s baseline antibody level of at least 179 ng/ml, determined at the height of the Delta variant, has held firm. In all 97.8% of people in England had antibody levels of 179 ng/ml in mid-March, and this had fallen only fractionally, to 96.3% by mid-July.
One issue facing the government is that new versions of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that have been tweaked to improve efficacy against Omicron may not be available in time for an earlier start for the booster campaign – or indeed October, unless the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) can approve them quickly.
Both shots – based on the original Wuhan strain of SARS-CoV-2 and the BA.1 Omicron subvariant – are currently under review at the regulator.
The post COVID antibody declines prompts call for booster jabs ASAP appeared first on .testing antibodies covid-19 wuhan uk
Monkeypox: demand for vaccines is outstripping supply – this is what’s causing the shortages
Chronic weaknesses in our global vaccine manufacturing and distribution systems may broadly be to blame.
Over 30,000 cases of monkeypox have been reported in more than 80 countries worldwide in 2022. Most are in countries that have never previously reported monkeypox. While monkeypox is not as transmissible as many respiratory infections (such as COVID-19), it’s still important to curb the spread.
One way to control spread is by vaccinating vulnerable people. Fortunately, we already have vaccines which are very effective at preventing monkeypox. But as case numbers continue to rise, reports are emerging that demand for vaccines is outstripping supply in many parts of the world currently seeing an outbreak, including the US, UK and Europe.
There are a number of reasons why we are seeing shortages of the vaccine used to protect against monkeypox. Broadly, it’s due to chronic weaknesses in our global vaccine manufacturing and distribution systems, which make it especially difficult to supply the vaccines needed to protect against new infections and outbreaks.
The vaccine currently being used to protect against monkeypox is the smallpox vaccine, which works because the monkeypox virus is so closely related to smallpox.
Until now, the smallpox vaccine has been a niche product because it’s not been needed since smallpox was eradicated in 1980. Pharmaceutical companies can’t afford to manufacture vast numbers of doses just in case, and few governments can justify buying a vaccine that isn’t used. This means the vaccines currently being administered are from emergency stockpiles that were created to respond to an accidental (or deliberate) release of smallpox.
As such, there are limited stocks and production capacity globally, so demand is rapidly outstripping supply. Even the US, with one of the largest smallpox vaccine stockpiles, recently ordered 2.5 million additional doses in response to the monkeypox outbreak. But there are reports that the factory in Denmark which makes the world’s only smallpox vaccine approved for monkeypox is temporarily closed, which may further impact the world’s ability to source more vaccine doses. And unfortunately, transferring production to other facilities is not straightforward.
One particular problem for vaccine manufacturers is that it’s hard to predict when or where big outbreaks of infections may happen. Of course, there are some infections that we know consistently require a regular supply of vaccines – such as the influenza virus. But while 1 billion influenza vaccines are produced globally each year, it still takes approximately six months from picking the most important new strains to manufacturing and rolling out jabs.
So even with vaccines in high demand, it isn’t simple to manufacture more doses. This is why we are still striving to innovate ways to rapidly produce new vaccines affordably and at a very large scale.
Vaccines are inherently complicated to make. Because they are made from relatively fragile and complex biological materials (such as a virus), the product has to be exactly right every time. If the formula changes even slightly, it might not work as well – or even increase the risk of side-effects.
Adding to this challenge is the fact that different vaccine products may be manufactured by different methods. For example, the equipment needed to produce a viral vaccine (such as the smallpox vaccine used against monkeypox) will be very different to that used to make COVID-19 RNA vaccines. It’s also slow and expensive to test any necessary modifications or improvements that may be needed to make a vaccine safer and more effective.
Surprisingly, even some simple processes common to all vaccines and other medicines – such as filling doses into vials for distribution to patients – still have a mismatch of capacity. Vaccines are usually manufactured in different locations to packaging facilities, raising logistical hurdles (such as strictly controlled refrigeration requirements) that can further delay distribution. These facilities are used for many different medicines and are usually fully booked years in advance; schedules that are still recovering from COVID-19 disruptions may now be experiencing urgent changes to package the smallpox vaccine from stockpiles.
It also isn’t just a case of developing new monkeypox vaccines that are easier to manufacture. Even with major recent scientific progress, it would take many months to develop a safe and effective new vaccine. For monkeypox, it’s far quicker and simpler to use the existing smallpox vaccine.
What can be done?
Smallpox vaccine production is likely to be increased to meet demand. But until this happens, many countries will have to make best use of what supplies they can access, and rely on other strategies to help curb the virus’s spread.
The most effective way to prevent monkeypox causing further harm is by using an integrated, locally led public health response – vaccines are just one part of this. Testing and contact tracing is vital. If enough infected people in a region can be identified and supported to isolate while they’re infectious, transmission can be blocked.
Given the vaccine shortages, we expect that people don’t need two vaccine doses to be protected against monkeypox. This is why vaccinating the most at-risk groups with one dose now, paired with other public health measures, is the most effective strategy for curbing the spread of monkeypox – especially while vaccine supplies are limited. Second doses can be administered to maximise immunity when supplies do become available.
The current monkeypox outbreak is yet another reminder of the importance of investing in global health, and ensuring there’s more equal access to vaccines and other medical interventions that can help prevent the spread of harmful diseases.
Alexander Edwards does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.stocks covid-19 vaccine testing vaccine production rna spread transmission europe uk
Ivana Trump’s Money Lessons for Older Americans.
Ivana Trump, the first wife of Donald Trump, was recently found dead in her Manhattan residence. She was 73.
Known throughout her life as a dynamo socialite…
Ivana Trump, the first wife of Donald Trump, was recently found dead in her Manhattan residence. She was 73.
Known throughout her life as a dynamo socialite and dealmaker in heels, her death from a blunt trauma from a fall down the stairs in her multi-story townhome, was a shock to residents who perceived her as vibrant and full of life. So, her passing got me thinking about Ivana Trump’s money lessons for older Americans.
Listen, it’s tough to age, but don’t let the process get you down. It’s too hard to get back up! Get it?
Seriously, a great challenge is an acceptance of growing older. Aging can be a tough pill to swallow. Especially for those who are known for the travails of their younger days. I have friends who explain as they age, they ‘disappear.’ I hate to hear this.
Personally, I’m living my best self and wouldn’t change a thing. However, Ageism is a real societal challenge. Based on numerous surveys, white papers, and reports from health organizations, those who are 60 and older are subject to negative stereotyping and discrimination in the workplace. Also, to younger generations, they do disappear in a manner of speaking.
But I have news for you. I think that’s about to change for you ‘seasoned’ folks.
During the pandemic, the Labor Force Participation Rate collapsed and has yet to recover. For those who need a reminder, the LFPR represents the people age 16 and older employed or seeking employment. Older Americans decided to accelerate retirement. Younger cohorts decided to go out on their own or sit back – satiated by government stimulus.
I think many older Americans will seek to unravel their retirement decision and return to the workforce. Also, I believe they’ll be welcomed with open arms by employers eager for a generation that is timely, responsible, and willing to work!
Let’s kick Ageism where it hurts. Right in the work ethic!
One money lesson I’ve learned from Ivana Trump about older Americans is that the entire world is wrinkling.
According to Peter Zeihan in his latest book – The End of The World is just the Beginning, population, and spending shrinkages are realities the entire globe must embrace. Demographics outline that mass-consumption-driven economies have already peaked.
By 2030, the world will be populated with twice as many retirees. Therefore, we all better internalize the fact that we’re getting older and financially and emotionally prepare accordingly. Long-term, poor demographics are deflationary.
In my opinion, Ivana Trump refused to accept aging. Thus, I consider Ivana Trump’s money lessons for older Americans applicable to all of us.
Regardless of her immense wealth, she must have encountered anguish when it comes to getting older. Sure having money doesn’t hurt. Suffering in luxury isn’t bad. However, aging doesn’t care about a net worth statement.
Denial of aging is real and one of Ivana Trump’s best money lessons for older Americans.
Who needs comprehensive studies to understand that denial of getting older is a reality? I see it in myself as I dramatically changed my diet and amped up my physical workouts years ago to fight or slow the inevitable.
Frankly, my graying hairline stresses me out.
I engage with people regularly who aren’t ready to deal with how someday they may move slower, forget things often and work through periodic illness or injury. Older clients and their adult children have a tough time facing that mom and dad are grayer, smaller, and frailer than they used to be.
Per a July 2022 analysis from the Center for Retirement Research, older Americans and retirees poorly assess the risks they face in retirement. Health and longevity risks (the risk of living longer than expected and exhausting financial resources) are underestimated.
Per the study: Perceived longevity risk and health risk rank lower because retirees are pessimistic about their survival probabilities and often underestimate their health costs in late life.
I cannot tell you how many clients inform me how sure they are about dying early. How do they know? So, I always ask the following question –
“What if you don’t?”
Ivana Trump’s friends were concerned about her home’s beautiful but dangerous staircase. They were worried about her falling. She had an elevator and rarely used it. The stairs at her home were steep, the carpet was worn. Although she had trouble walking, she regularly took the stairs. She had the money to remove or replace the carpet; the elevator would have been perfect, but she rarely used it.
In her halcyon days, Ivana was New York royalty. Young, vibrant. She could accomplish anything. How can someone like that stare into the mirror and face vincibility? How can you? Can I? Acceptance is the first step to a rich life as we age, to feel comfortable in different but richer skins.
That acceptance opens the door to preparation – eating right, exercising regularly, and preparing for the risks of aging through comprehensive planning and open communication with family and friends.
If I deny aging, then I’ll force everyone around me to deny it too. Or, at the least, family members and friends will discuss issues concerning me behind my back. Who wants that? Older Americans must be open to listening.
This leads to my next financial lesson for older Americans from Ivana Trump.
Communication. Another one of the money lessons Ivana Trump has for older Americans.
I wonder how many times Ivana was advised (perhaps delicately) by Ivanka and the other kids to update her place for aging, move to a one-story, or take the damn elevator. Whatever it is, would Ivana listen or just carry on like it was the 1980s? In her mind, it may have been decades ago, but her aging body lived in the here and now.
There’s a nuance and empathy to communicating with older loved ones.
Remember, they were young like you once. Listen to your special older Americans. Never be condescending. A good idea may be to bring in an objective third party such as your financial advisor to assist with the discussions. I’ve witnessed adult children infantilize their parents, and that never works. Imagine approaching Ivana with that tone! Not good!
Remember, even mild cognitive impairment can drive a communication wedge between you, and your aging loved one. However, don’t give up sparking conversation. I work with clients who consistently need to nuance their speech with their parents. They get their points across eventually. Impaired older relatives eventually take action, but the process is like chipping away at an iceberg with a butter knife.
Don’t give up!
Genworth, a leader in long-term care insurance and research, maintains an impactful Conversation Starters page with helpful tips about what to talk about and how to maintain a dialogue. Check it out.
Use your financial plan to motivate others.
How can you discuss long-term care issues with loved ones if you’re personally in denial about aging? A risk mitigation plan as part of a comprehensive financial strategy validates your commitment to preparation. Actions forge your conversations with credibility.
According to AARP’s most recent Home and Community Preference Survey, 77% of adults 50 and older want to remain in their homes or age in place. The number has been consistent for over a decade. Aging in place requires planning – whether it’s to eventually downsize to a one-story home, renovate kitchen and baths or install easy access ramps for items of mobility such as wheelchairs. It would be worth practicing financial openness and sharing this information with aging parents. In other words, if you’re preparing for these expenses, they should be too.
Don’t forget long-term care insurance as one of Ivana Trump’s money lessons for older Americans.
Ivana didn’t need long-term care insurance. You probably need to consider it.
Unfortunately, nearly half of individuals who apply for traditional long-term care insurance after age 70 have their applications declined by an insurer, according to Jesse Slome, director of the American Association for Long-Term Care Insurance. However, loved ones in good health in their 50s and 60s can still consider long-term care insurance. The sweet spot for looking into long-term care coverage is generally between ages 55 and 65, per Jesse Slome.
Three out of every five financial plans I create reflect deficiencies in meeting long-term care expenses. Medical insurance like Medicare does not cover long-term care expenses – a common misperception. Nearly 60% of people surveyed in various studies falsely believe that Medicare covers long-term care expenses.
The Genworth Cost of Care Survey has been tracking long-term care costs across 440 regions across the United States since 2004.
Genworth’s results assume an annual 3% inflation rate. In today’s dollars, a home-health aide who assists with cleaning, cooking, and other responsibilities for those who seek to age in place or require temporary assistance with daily living activities can cost over $54,912 a year in the Houston area. We use a 4.25-4.5% inflation rate for financial planning purposes to reflect recent median annual costs for assisted living and nursing home care. Candidly, I fear that I’ll need to increase this inflation rate in 2023.
As I examine long-term care policies issued recently vs. those 10 years or later, it’s glaringly obvious that coverage isn’t as comprehensive, and costs are more prohibitive.
One option is to consider a reverse mortgage, specifically a home equity conversion mortgage. The horror stories about these products are overblown. The most astute planners and academics understand how incorporating the equity from a primary residence in a retirement income strategy can help with the burden of long-term care costs. Those who talk down these products are speaking out of lack of knowledge and falling easily for pervasive false narratives.
Reverse mortgages have several layers of costs (nothing like they were in the past), and it pays for consumers to shop around for the best deals. Also, to qualify for a reverse mortgage, the homeowner must be 62, the home must be a primary residence, and the debt limited to mortgage debt. There are several ways to receive payouts.
One of the smartest strategies is to establish a reverse mortgage line of credit at age 62, leave it untapped, and allow it to grow along with the home’s value.
The line may be tapped for long-term care expenses if needed or to mitigate the sequence of poor return risk in portfolios. Simply, in years where portfolios are down, the reverse mortgage line is used for income while portfolios recover. Once assets recover, rebalancing proceeds or gains may be used to repay the reverse mortgage loan, restoring the line of credit.
RIA’s approach to helping older Americans age comfortably in place.
Our planning software allows our team to consider a reverse mortgage in the analysis. Those plans have a high probability of success. We explain that income is as necessary as water regarding retirement. For many retirees, converting the glacier of a home into the water of income using a reverse mortgage will be required for retirement survival and especially long-term care expenses.
Ivana Trump’s money lessons for older Americans are lessons for us all, regardless of age.
Planning to age gracefully and healthfully will lead to a prosperous retirement attitude.
As George Burns said: You can’t help getting older, but you don’t have to get old.
The longer I live, the more I realize how true that quote is.stimulus pandemic mortgages trump mitigation
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