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Wakign Up And Smelling The Coffee

Wakign Up And Smelling The Coffee

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Investors in Asia are certainly waking on Friday and smelling the coffee after a tumultuous overnight session, which alternated between a good hard dose of economic reality, the challenges of the international community working together for the greater good, and yet another Muddy Waters China shortcoming to fruition.

 

US Initial Jobless Claims delivered an eye-watering increase of 6.6 million new claims for unemployment benefits – blowing last week’s 3.3 million increase out of the water. Nearly 10 million Americans have effectively lost their jobs in the past two weeks delivering a harsh insight into the scale of the economic wreckage that the COVID-19 pandemic will foist on the developed world. The efficiency of the Federal bureaucracy in providing the cheques from the first $1.2 trillion stimulus programme to the man on the street will now be crucial. The scale of the job losses means that more follow-on work from Washington DC will need to be enacted, and quickly.

 

The news wasn’t all bad though, with President Trump tweeting that a production cut agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia totalling some 10 million barrels per day, is on the cards. The gulf between the reality of the Presidential optimism and real life is well documented, of course. But even this seed of hope was enough to propel oil to record gains overnight, with Brent crude rising 35% intra-day at one stage. The Canadians signalled that they were prepared to join any cuts, but the sticking point will, of course, be the US oil industry.

 

Although both Texas and Oklahoma’s regulators have some flexibility in the law to reduce production, the reality is that American participation under the law is challenging. Big oil itself, appears to be reluctant as well to cap output, showing just how disconnected they are from the requirement of the world to work together for the greater good during the COVID-19 pandemic shock. The Whiting Petroleum debacle is highlighting the mentality pervading the US oil industry. We can though, expect some serious arm twisting behind the scenes from the White House, with President Trump “picking volunteers” from the US side.

 

With a demand shock estimated at 10/15 million barrels per day, and storage above ground, and on the water, running out globally, the need for action has reached critical levels. OPEC+ though will be in no mood for any compromise unless US producers “volunteer” to cut production as well. That said, I remain confident that the seeds of a new deal have been sown, and that we have seen the lows in oil prices for the time being.

 

Finally, China’s answer to Starbuck, Lukin Coffee Inc delivered a most unwelcome scalding triple-shot of coffee into the laps of its hapless, and mostly American, investors. Lukin Coffee’s ADR shares plunged by 80% overnight as the company announced potential financial miscreance from its COO and his staff. That had been telegraphed by a Muddy Waters report earlier this year highlighting, and of course denied, allegations of the fabrication of sales revenue. The fact that the announcement was made overnight by the Chairman and CEO and the Board of Directors, on whose watch it all happened, and all of whom appear to have their jobs still, highlights the challenges of corporate governance that pervade American boardrooms still. Did I mention Whiting Petroleum?

 

Another waft of coffee blew across Asia this morning, to awake investors from their slumber. Australian, Hong Kong and Singapore PMI’s for the most part, disappointed, taking the edge of a modestly positive week for the region. China continues to provide the ray of hope though, Caixin Services and Composite PMI’s printing at 43.0 and 46.7, respectively. Although below 50.0, both nearly doubled from last month’s prints, hinting that an incipient recovery in China remains on course.

 

Tonight’s data highlight will be the US Non-Farm Payrolls data. However, with the disaster of the US Initial Jobless Claims overnight, all bets are off as to where the Non-Farms will print. Market guesstimates of a 100,000 drop in payrolls may well prove to be just that, guesstimates. I would hazard that the headline number will be much worse than that and will also be reflected in an unemployment rate much higher than the 3.80% forecast. Even with President Trump’s oil plan, US equities are most likely being set up for a weak finish to the week. The sad reality is that the world will get much worse before it gets better, as COVID-19 wrecks carnage on employment and economic activity. Much of the world will and must remain on fiscal life support from national governments for some months to come.

 

Equities

 

Wall Street seized on President Trump’s potential oil deal overnight, ignoring the disaster of the Initial Jobless Claims. One can’t really blame them for that though, markets preferring to predict the future and not the here and now. The S&P 500 rose 2.28%, the NASDAQ rose 1.72%, and the Dow Jones rose 2.23%., as the giant rallies in oil lifted sentiment.

 

With after-hours US futures falling 0.70%, Asia is having an altogether more modest day, perhaps also reflecting that fact that the world’s largest oil importers are all in this region. The Nikkei 225 is up 0.60% while both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 are flat on the day. The announcement of new social gathering restrictions by Hong Kong has seen the Hang Seng ease by 0.50% with the Straits Times also lower by 0.70%.

 

The rise in oil prices overnight has seen Jakarta outperform, rising 1.50% today in a welcome respite for both stocks and the currency. Somewhat surprisingly, the resource-heavy Australian indices are flat on the day.

 

Overall, Asia has a cautious look about it today with a potential oil production deal being offset by weaker data in Asia and most especially the US. The COVID-19 case numbers crossing the 1 million mark may also be dampening sentiment. Asia will remain in a wait and see mode for the rest of the session as the world awaits the Non-Farm Payroll data from the US this evening.

 

Currencies

 

The primary movers have been Petro-currencies overnight as oil prices recorded their largest one-day gains ever. The Norwegian krona, Russian Ruble and Canadian Dollar all outperformed overnight. Against the other majors, though, the US Dollar continued to outperform despite the appalling data emerging from the US.

 

The US Dollar continues to benefit from haven status and the shortage of Dollar funding internationally, with the Dollar Index breaking through 100.00 overnight to 100.15. The chief loser was the Euro with EUR/USD falling 1.0% through 1.0900 to 1.0850. It is hard to see any material recovery in the single currency occurring until material progress is observed in the continents COVID-19 battle.

 

The USD/CNY remains a bastion of stability, content to trade each side of the 7.1000 mark, with the stronger dollar being offset by weaker components in other parts of the basket.

 

Oil

 

Oil had a tumultuous overnight session as President Trump implied that a coordinated production cut agreement was at hand. Whether that is true or not, oil had its largest-ever one-day rally at one stage, with Brent climbing 35% intra-day. As the dust settled, Brent crude finished the session 21% higher at $29.80 a barrel and WTI rising 22% to finish around $ 25.00 a barrel.

 

After such huge gains overnight, it is no surprise that some profit-taking has occurred in Asia to pare those increases. Brent crude has fallen 3.0% to $28.00 a barrel, and WTI has eased 4.0% to $24.25 a barrel.

 

From here, we can expect intra-day price moves to be entirely dictated by OPEC+ headlines. These will render any technical levels irrelevant as the street plays headline ping-pong. What does seem clear though, is that there is a willingness by the significant players to engineer some sort of mutually agreeable production cut deal. Something that can and must happen. For that reason, it is likely that we have now seen the lows of oil for the foreseeable future unless the momentum witnessed so far collapses in disagreement.

 

Gold

 

The Initial Jobless Claims frightened gold market participants and gold saw a rush of haven driven buying overnight. Gold rose 1.35% to $1613.00 an ounce.

 

Gold is unchanged in Asia today but for now, looks like it will be well supported on any dips towards $1600.00 an ounce. Overall, gold remains anchored within a wide, but real, $1550.00 to $1650.00 an ounce range. More bad news from tonight’s US Non-Farm Payrolls will likely give gold another shot of upward momentum and leave it poised to test the upper limits of its recent range early next week.

 

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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