International
US Open – Risk aversion on economic doubts and virus concerns, Oil’s glut, Gold shines
US Open – Risk aversion on economic doubts and virus concerns, Oil’s glut, Gold shines
Stock market gains are slowly getting wiped out as the second coronavirus wave hits the US. New Mexico, Oregon, Florida, Texas, Arizona are having large increases in new coronavirus cases. As the overall cases rise above 2 million, Texas had its highest one-day infection total, Florida’s weekly cases jump to highest level, California shows hospitalizations rose to a four-week high. Some of the rises in new cases is also being attributed to the increase in testing.
Financial markets recalibrate after Powell’s downbeat assessment to the outlook and are heading for the sidelines. While the Fed’s policy is set to support a higher stock market, an improving earnings outlook will be required for stocks to get their groove back. The cyclical reopening rotation is over and small-cap stocks could see further downside in the short-term.
Treasuries/FX
One of the key takeaways from yesterday’s FOMC decision was that Fed policymakers are expecting rates will stay just above zero through 2022. With the 2-year Treasury yield on lockdown, bond traders are moving up the yield curve. Longest-dated debt was supposed to deliver a steepener but risks to the outlook will delay that the trade. Global bond yields are tumbling as risk aversion runs wild. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are outperforming as virus concerns and growing expectations of a slower economic recovery weigh on sentiment.
Oil
Supply glut overhang and diminishing crude demand expectations are sinking oil prices sharply. Second wave coronavirus risks on crushing hopes for a steady global economic recovery that was spearheading prospects of improving crude demand.
Following yesterday’s downbeat outlook by the Fed, energy traders are worried permanent damage to the economy along with a second wave of the coronavirus will cripple prospects for a strong second half of the year. The supply glut issue to is not going away anytime soon as US crude stockpiles rise to a record high.
In less than a week, the supply and demand fundamentals both turned bearish for oil markets. WTI crude should find some support at the $35 level, but if that breaks, bearish momentum could easily target the $30 region.
Gold
Gold prices are roaring higher as concerns grow as the relentless stock market rally appears over for now, second US virus wave concerns become the consensus and a slower economic recovery seems destined to be met with much more stimulus. The only thing that could derail gold right now is if risk aversion intensifies too much that investors start to scramble for cash. Gold seems poised for another attempt at $1750 and then possibly the $1800 level.
International
Highlights of My Weekly Reading and Viewing
Timothy Taylor, “Some Economics of Pharmacy Benefit Managers,” The Conversable Economist, September 28, 2023. This is the nicest treatment of the facts…

Timothy Taylor, “Some Economics of Pharmacy Benefit Managers,” The Conversable Economist, September 28, 2023. This is the nicest treatment of the facts that I’ve seen. I confess that I’ve seen PBMs as something of a black box rather than doing the standard middleman treatment that Tim does.
Tim highlights the work of Matthew Fiedler, Loren Adler, and Richard G. Frank in “A Brief Look at Key Debates About Pharmacy Benefit Manufacturers,” Brookings Institution, September 7, 2023.
Ending paragraph:
As in most economic discussions about the role of middlemen, it’s important to remember that they (usually) don’t just sit around with their hands out, collecting money. Some entity needs to negotiate on behalf of health insurance companies with drug manufacturers and pharmacies. Some entity needs to process insurance claims for drug prices. I do not mean to defend the relatively high drug prices paid by American consumers compared to international markets, nor to defend the costs and requirements for developing new drugs, nor to defend some of the mechanisms used by drug companies to keep prices high. But while it might be possible to squeeze some money out of PBMs for slightly lower drug prices, and it’s certainly possible to mess up PBMs in a way that leads to higher drug prices, it doesn’t seem plausible that reform of PBMs is going to be a powerful lever for reducing drug prices.
Thomas W. Hazlett, “Maybe Google Is Popular Because It’s Good,” Reason, September 27, 2023. I think Hazlett is the best writer in economics. This piece is a good sample.
An excerpt:
The innovation was simple in design, complex in execution, and radical in result. The business achieved a rare triple play: First, a robust new web crawler devised a superior method for finding and tagging the world’s digital content, deploying cheap PCs linked in formations to achieve momentous computing power (Brin’s genius). Second, this more prolific database of global digital content was better cataloged. A clever “Page Rank” score evaluated keyword matches, countering the influence of scammers by scrutinizing the quality of their web page links (Page’s inspiration). Third, “intention-based advertising” displayed commercial messages to searchers self-identified as ready to buy. For instance, the internet user wondering about “coho salmon, Ketchikan, kids” gave Hank’s Family Fishing B&B in Alaska a digital target for its 10 percent off coupon, while signaling to Olay not to bother advertising its skin care products. This solved the famous marketing dilemma: “I know I’m wasting half my ad budget, I just don’t know which half.” Businesses loved these tiny slices of digital real estate, and Google mined gold.
Fiona Harrigan, “America’s Immigrant Brain Drain,” Reason, October 2023.
Excerpt:
In June, The Hechinger Report outlined how foreign governments are welcoming U.S.-trained international students. The United Kingdom offers a “high potential individual” visa, which authorizes a two-year stay and is available to “new graduates of 40 universities….21 of them in the United States.” Recruiters from Australia are “attending job fairs and visiting university campuses” in the United States. From 2017 to 2021, according to the Niskanen Center, a Washington-based think tank, Canada managed to attract almost 40,000 foreign-born graduates of American universities.
Most international students want to stay in the U.S. after graduating, but very few are able to do so. The U.S. does not have a dedicated postgraduate work visa. Canada and Australia, meanwhile, have streamlined the steps from graduation to employment to permanent residency. Graduates in the U.S. can complete Optional Practical Training, but it does not lead to permanent residency and lasts a maximum of three years.
Personal note: Actually the maximum of 3 years for Practical Training sounds good. When I took advantage of the F-1 Practical Training visa to be on the faculty of the University of Rochester, the max was only 18 months.
David Friedman, “Consequences of Climate Change,” September 24, 2023. David does his typical calm, clear, masterful job of laying out the facts. He takes the IPCC reports as given and then follows the implications, uncovering a lot of misleading claims in the process. While David takes as given that the earth will heat about another degree centigrade by about the end of the century, he lays out why we can’t be sure that the net effects are negative or positive. Watch about the first 35 minutes of his speech, before he gets to Q&A. I would point out highlights but there is zinger after zinger. And he references his blog and his substack where you can get details.
The pic above is of David Friedman giving his talk.
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Russia’s Military Budget Set To Rise By 70%
Russia’s Military Budget Set To Rise By 70%
Via Remix News,
Russian military spending is set to rise by almost 70 percent — to €106…

Russian military spending is set to rise by almost 70 percent — to €106 billion — by 2024, according to a Russian Finance Ministry document published Thursday, an increase that illustrates Moscow’s determination to continue its military intervention in Ukraine despite the human and economic costs.
According to the document, Russian defense spending will increase by 68 percent in 2024 compared to this year and will reach 10.8 trillion rubles (€106 billion).
As a result, the amount allocated to defense will represent about 30 percent of total federal spending in 2024 and 6 percent of GDP — a first in Russia’s modern history.
The budget for internal security is set to rise to 3.4 trillion rubles (€33 billion), almost 10 percent of annual federal spending.
The priorities for this budget are outlined as “strengthening the country’s defense capacity” and “integrating the new regions” of Ukraine whose annexation Moscow has demanded, as well as “social aid for the most vulnerable citizens,” just months ahead of the Russian presidential elections in spring 2024.
Conversely, total spending on education, healthcare and environmental protection accounts for barely a third of the defense budget, according to ministry figures. Overall, federal spending will total 36.7 trillion rubles (€359 billion), a dramatic 20 percent increase over 2023.
The government, however, has explained little about how it will finance this large increase, as Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Musustin said last Friday that revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons will be down sharply and will account for “a third of next year’s budget” in 2024, whereas before the invasion of Ukraine, they accounted for half the budget.
The sector used to drive Russia’s growth, hydrocarbon sales are declining due to international sanctions and the European Union’s determination to move away from energy dependence on Moscow.
One indication that the government expects a delicate month ahead for the Russian economy is that it has announced that it has based its budget forecast on the assumption of a dollar worth around 90 rubles, thus betting on a weakening of the national currency in the medium term. The draft budget law for 2024-2026 is due to be sent to the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, on Friday.
International
Atlantic Overfishing: Europe’s Worst Offenders
Atlantic Overfishing: Europe’s Worst Offenders
Each year, agriculture and fisheries ministers decide on total allowable catches (TACs) for…

Each year, agriculture and fisheries ministers decide on total allowable catches (TACs) for commercial fishing.
Scientific bodies, such as the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), provide information on the state of fish stocks around the world and recommend maximum catch levels per zone to ensure sustainable fishing.
However, this scientific advice is all too often ignored by the authorities, jeopardizing the sustainability of marine resources.
Statista's Martin Armstrong shows in the following infographic, based on the latest report from the New Economics Foundation, these European countries are the worst offenders for this, having on numerous occasions set their fishing quotas in the North-East Atlantic in excess of the sustainability recommendations in recent years.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Sweden exceeded its recommended TAC by almost 33 percent in 2020 (the latest year available), equivalent to 12,000 tonnes of fish, followed by Denmark (6 percent, 20,000 tonnes) and France (6 percent, 17,000 tonnes).
Ireland, Belgium, Spain and the UK all exceeded their targets by between 2 and 4 percent.
The year before, in 2019, the overshoot of the sustainable fishing threshold in the zone was even more pronounced: 7 percent of the recommended TAC for Spain, 9 percent for France, 10 percent for Belgium, 18 percent for Germany, 20 percent or more for Denmark, the United Kingdom and Ireland, and 52% for Sweden.
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