Connect with us

US housing market is at a crossroads

With a sharp rise in mortgage rates and weak existing-home sales, Moody’s concluded that the incredible rise in home prices is over. Other housing market…

Published

on

The real estate market is cooling down

Reports released this week by several respected market observers point to less good and increased bad and ugly ahead for the housing market.

For some of the good, a U.S. Census Bureau report released late last week spurred a bout of optimism when it revealed that new-home sales jumped by nearly 11% month-over-month in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after declining by 12% in April. 

Moody’s Investors Service, in a housing-market report released this week, puts some ugly back into the home-sales figures for May, however.

“At 696,000 units, May new home sales were around 17% below the recent peak of 839,000 units in December last year,” the Moody’s report notes. “[On June 21], the National Association of Realtors said that existing-home sales declined for the fourth consecutive month. 

“Existing-home sales fell in May by 3.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis to 5.41 million, the lowest since June of 2020 and similar to pre-pandemic levels.”

Those figures, along with “sharp recent increases in mortgage rates” and other supporting data, lead Moody’s to conclude that the “U.S. home-price boom is over.” The firm, which rates securitization offerings and provides other capital-market services, predicts “material declines” in both new- and existing-home transactions this year, compared with 2021.

Supporting the ugly outlook for the housing market is the release today, June 29, of the quarterly CFO Survey, conducted jointly by Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. The survey of more than 300 U.S. financial executives conducted between May 25 and June 10, shows optimism about the broader U.S. economy continuing to decline.

The average index score for the current survey was 50.7, compared with 54.8 in the prior quarter and 60.3 two quarters ago.

“Price pressures have increased, real revenue growth has stalled and optimism about the overall economy has fallen sharply,” said John Graham, a Fuqua finance professor and the survey’s academic director. “Monetary tightening [by the Federal Reserve] is one of several factors dampening the economic outlook.” 

The CFO Survey’s findings are echoed by a revised first-quarter 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) estimate released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). It shows that a drastic economic slowdown is already underway.

“Real gross domestic product [a measure of all goods and services produced in the economy] decreased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022 …,” the BEA report states. “In the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP increased 6.9 percent.”

The BEA’s first-quarter GDP estimate, it’s third to date, was revised downward from -1.4% and -1.5% in the two prior estimates. The grim data led Mortgage Capital Trading (MCT), a San Diego-based capital market software and services firm, to broach the “R“ word in its daily market-overview report.

“Concern over a slowing economy and aggressive interest rate hikes from the Fed are beginning to dominate market sentiment,” the MCT report states. “This morning’s GDP release [on June 29] came with a downward revision for the last reading, further supporting views that a recession is either in progress or coming soon.”

What does all this mean for the housing market in the months ahead? The Moody’s report attempts to frame some of the expectations.

“We expect some increases in existing-house prices over the next 18 months, though for appreciation to be well below the general rate of inflation,” the Moody’s report states. “After that, we expect home appreciation to settle in at levels somewhat lower than the rate of overall U.S. inflation.”

The report even indicates that there “is risk that existing home prices will have a minor correction over the next two years, similar to housing markets in many other developed counties facing risks after recent booms.” 

The “moderation” in the U.S. housing market is ongoing and the full effects of recent rate increases have yet to be fully realized, the Moody’s report adds, especially with respect to housing prices.

Moody’s predicts that housing demand will “dampen significantly” in the months ahead due to the doubling of rates for 30-year fixed mortgages since the start of the year, which is fueling a huge jump in monthly mortgage costs. Freddie Mac’s most recent Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 5.81% as of June 23. 

“The monthly costs of new mortgages on existing homes sold at median transaction prices [are] more than 60% higher than a year ago,” the Moody’s report states. “Although higher mortgage rates do not always drive home prices lower, they typically affect sales activity and drive down the rate of price appreciation. 

“We also expect higher rates to restrict for-sale supply because current homeowners will be reluctant to lose low-rate fixed borrowing costs.”

So, in effect, moderating or even declining home prices could be neutralized by rising borrowing costs, leading the housing market toward stagnation — the doldrums — in the worst-case scenario.

There is some good news mixed in with all this bad and ugly, however. Moody’s points out that some “fundamental housing strengths” will likely help to mitigate the degree of any market correction, at least over the next 12 to 18 months.

Those strengths include “favorable demographic trends, solid underwriting of outstanding mortgages and lingering housing supply constraints from a period of underbuilding,” according to the Moody’s report. Also on the bright side, according to Moody’s, is that a moderate decline in housing prices could be good for the market longer-term. That’s assuming the Federal Reserve wins the fight to tame inflation, now running at 8.6%,  without causing a major spike in unemployment, which was at 3.6% in May for the third month in a row, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In short, the housing market has reached a fork in the road, based on the Moody’s analysis — with one path leading to the doldrums, or even decline, and the other toward resurgence and a new normal.

“If U.S. home prices were to decline modestly, it would increase affordability for potential homebuyers and improve demand, including for individuals who were priced out of the market in the recent months because of rapidly rising interest rates,” Moody’s reasons in its report. “However, sustained large increases in mortgage rates or a material weakening in the labor market could lead to sharper declines in housing activity and prices.”

The post US housing market is at a crossroads appeared first on HousingWire.

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Mike Pompeo Doesn’t Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Mike Pompeo Doesn’t Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former Secretary…

Published

on

Mike Pompeo Doesn't Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a new interview that he’s not ruling out accepting a White House position if former President Donald Trump is reelected in November.

“If I get a chance to serve and think that I can make a difference ... I’m almost certainly going to say yes to that opportunity to try and deliver on behalf of the American people,” he told Fox News, when asked during a interview if he would work for President Trump again.

I’m confident President Trump will be looking for people who will faithfully execute what it is he asked them to do,” Mr. Pompeo said during the interview, which aired on March 8. “I think as a president, you should always want that from everyone.”

Then-President Donald Trump (C), then- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L), and then-Vice President Mike Pence, take a question during the daily briefing on the novel coronavirus at the White House in Washington on April 8, 2020. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

He said that as a former secretary of state, “I certainly wanted my team to do what I was asking them to do and was enormously frustrated when I found that I couldn’t get them to do that.”

Mr. Pompeo, a former U.S. representative from Kansas, served as Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2018 before he was secretary of state from 2018 to 2021. After he left office, there was speculation that he could mount a Republican presidential bid in 2024, but announced that he wouldn’t be running.

President Trump hasn’t publicly commented about Mr. Pompeo’s remarks.

In 2023, amid speculation that he would make a run for the White House, Mr. Pompeo took a swipe at his former boss, telling Fox News at the time that “the Trump administration spent $6 trillion more than it took in, adding to the deficit.”

“That’s never the right direction for the country,” he said.

In a public appearance last year, Mr. Pompeo also appeared to take a shot at the 45th president by criticizing “celebrity leaders” when urging GOP voters to choose ahead of the 2024 election.

2024 Race

Mr. Pompeo’s interview comes as the former president was named the “presumptive nominee” by the Republican National Committee (RNC) last week after his last major Republican challenger, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, dropped out of the 2024 race after failing to secure enough delegates. President Trump won 14 out of 15 states on Super Tuesday, with only Vermont—which notably has an open primary—going for Ms. Haley, who served as President Trump’s U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

On March 8, the RNC held a meeting in Houston during which committee members voted in favor of President Trump’s nomination.

“Congratulations to President Donald J. Trump on his huge primary victory!” the organization said in a statement last week. “I’d also like to congratulate Nikki Haley for running a hard-fought campaign and becoming the first woman to win a Republican presidential contest.”

Earlier this year, the former president criticized the idea of being named the presumptive nominee after reports suggested that the RNC would do so before the Super Tuesday contests and while Ms. Haley was still in the race.

Also on March 8, the RNC voted to name Trump-endorsed officials to head the organization. Michael Whatley, a North Carolina Republican, was elected the party’s new national chairman in a vote in Houston, and Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, was voted in as co-chair.

“The RNC is going to be the vanguard of a movement that will work tirelessly every single day to elect our nominee, Donald J. Trump, as the 47th President of the United States,” Mr. Whatley told RNC members in a speech after being elected, replacing former chair Ronna McDaniel. Ms. Trump is expected to focus largely on fundraising and media appearances.

President Trump hasn’t signaled whom he would appoint to various federal agencies if he’s reelected in November. He also hasn’t said who his pick for a running mate would be, but has offered several suggestions in recent interviews.

In various interviews, the former president has mentioned Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Vivek Ramaswamy, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, among others.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 17:00

Read More

Continue Reading

International

Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and…

Published

on

Riley Gaines Explains How Women's Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and bewildering tunnel of social justice cultism?  Global events have been so frenetic that many people might not remember, but only a couple years ago Big Tech companies and numerous governments were openly aligned in favor of mass censorship.  Not just to prevent the public from investigating the facts surrounding the pandemic farce, but to silence anyone questioning the validity of woke concepts like trans ideology. 

From 2020-2022 was the closest the west has come in a long time to a complete erasure of freedom of speech.  Even today there are still countries and Europe and places like Canada or Australia that are charging forward with draconian speech laws.  The phrase "radical speech" is starting to circulate within pro-censorship circles in reference to any platform where people are allowed to talk critically.  What is radical speech?  Basically, it's any discussion that runs contrary to the beliefs of the political left.

Open hatred of moderate or conservative ideals is perfectly acceptable, but don't ever shine a negative light on woke activism, or you might be a terrorist.

Riley Gaines has experienced this double standard first hand.  She was even assaulted and taken hostage at an event in 2023 at San Francisco State University when leftists protester tried to trap her in a room and demanded she "pay them to let her go."  Campus police allegedly witnessed the incident but charges were never filed and surveillance footage from the college was never released.  

It's probably the last thing a champion female swimmer ever expects, but her head-on collision with the trans movement and the institutional conspiracy to push it on the public forced her to become a counter-culture voice of reason rather than just an athlete.

For years the independent media argued that no matter how much we expose the insanity of men posing as women to compete and dominate women's sports, nothing will really change until the real female athletes speak up and fight back.  Riley Gaines and those like her represent that necessary rebellion and a desperately needed return to common sense and reason.

In a recent interview on the Joe Rogan Podcast, Gaines related some interesting information on the inner workings of the NCAA and the subversive schemes surrounding trans athletes.  Not only were women participants essentially strong-armed by colleges and officials into quietly going along with the program, there was also a concerted propaganda effort.  Competition ceremonies were rigged as vehicles for promoting trans athletes over everyone else. 

The bottom line?  The competitions didn't matter.  The real women and their achievements didn't matter.  The only thing that mattered to officials were the photo ops; dudes pretending to be chicks posing with awards for the gushing corporate media.  The agenda took precedence.

Lia Thomas, formerly known as William Thomas, was more than an activist invading female sports, he was also apparently a science project fostered and protected by the athletic establishment.  It's important to understand that the political left does not care about female athletes.  They do not care about women's sports.  They don't care about the integrity of the environments they co-opt.  Their only goal is to identify viable platforms with social impact and take control of them.  Women's sports are seen as a vehicle for public indoctrination, nothing more.

The reasons why they covet women's sports are varied, but a primary motive is the desire to assert the fallacy that men and women are "the same" psychologically as well as physically.  They want the deconstruction of biological sex and identity as nothing more than "social constructs" subject to personal preference.  If they can destroy what it means to be a man or a woman, they can destroy the very foundations of relationships, families and even procreation.  

For now it seems as though the trans agenda is hitting a wall with much of the public aware of it and less afraid to criticize it.  Social media companies might be able to silence some people, but they can't silence everyone.  However, there is still a significant threat as the movement continues to target children through the public education system and women's sports are not out of the woods yet.   

The ultimate solution is for women athletes around the world to organize and widely refuse to participate in any competitions in which biological men are allowed.  The only way to save women's sports is for women to be willing to end them, at least until institutions that put doctrine ahead of logic are made irrelevant.          

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 17:20

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024
A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to star…

Published

on

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale!
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s February 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 11.3% year-over-year in February. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this February as newly listed homes were 11.3% above last year’s levels. This marked the fourth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.
Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will have to wait for the March and April data to see how close new listings are to normal levels.

There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).

And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7% range.

But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.
There is much more in the article.

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending