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US enforcement agencies are turning up the heat on crypto-related crime

How governments decide to go after crimes committed with crypto could color the industry’s public perception and how the space is regulated.

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How governments decide to go after crimes committed with crypto could color the industry’s public perception and how the space is regulated.

On the evening of Jan. 7, Anatoly Legkodymov, founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitzlato, was arrested in Miami. The following day, the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) unsealed a complaint in federal court charging him with conducting a money transmitting business that transported and transmitted illicit funds. According to the DOJ, Bitzlato failed to meet U.S. regulatory safeguards, including Anti-Money Laundering requirements. 

Less than a month earlier, former FTX CEO Samuel Bankman-Fried was arrested in the Bahamas. In a statement, U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland said, The Justice Department has filed charges alleging that Samuel Bankman-Fried perpetrated a range of offenses in a global scheme to deceive and defraud customers and lenders of FTX and Alameda, as well as a conspiracy to defraud the United States government.

Garland stated, The U.S. Department of Justice will aggressively investigate and prosecute alleged criminal wrongdoing in the financial system and violations of federal elections laws. But is it really a new day? Will U.S. law enforcement be able to go after alleged crypto criminals at home and abroad?

According to Oberheiden PC attorney Alina Veneziano, who represents executive clients under criminal investigation against U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission subpoenas and DOJ fraud allegations, the answer is yes.

Attempts to reign in this new, unrestrained industry were inevitable, Veneziano tells Magazine. She believes that federal government agencies are increasing their investigative efforts toward crypto crime and will utilize all the tools at their disposal subpoenas, summons and inter-governmental sharing of information.

 For example, only last year, the SEC increased the size of its Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit in an effort to investigate more fraudulent crypto asset schemes and better protect investors in the crypto markets. Veneziano also believes the Internal Revenue Service will further enforce U.S. tax laws for cryptocurrencies. 

Former federal prosecutor Grant Fondo also sees an increase in activity. Now a trial attorney and founder of the Digital Currency and Blockchain Technology practice at Goodwin, Fondo believes that this is the result of the current bear market, widespread acceptance of cryptocurrency and the governments obligatory focus on crime.

I think anytime there is a course correction and/or an economic event like a crypto winter, that can also increase activity […] When assets go down, people get hurt, and if people are mixing funds and things, it can create problems, Fondo tells Magazine. Add to that the prolific global adoption of crypto, more people involved and the DOJs concern about any asset used for illicit activity, and Fondo sees beefed up enforcement as an inevitability.

In 2021, the DOJ created the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET) to handle investigation and prosecution of criminal misuse of cryptocurrency. NCET would combine the expertise of the agencys Money Laundering and Asset Recovery Section and the Computer Crime and Intellectual Property Section. In 2022, the DOJ also created the Digital Asset Coordinator (DAC) Network. Under the leadership of NCET, designated federal prosecutors from U.S. attorneys offices around the country would be assigned to the DAC Network. Each offices DAC will be the digital asset subject matter expert and the first, investigative source of information. 

Crypto Enforcement Action
(justice.gov)

What types of crimes re they going after?

According to a DOJ report submitted to the presidential administration in September, the agency believes that cryptocurrency is the preferred payment method for ransomware and other digital extortion activities. As an example, the DOJ referred to a ransomware attack in May 2021 on the Colonial Pipeline. According to the report, the attack forced the company to shut down a gasoline and jet fuel pipeline for days. This resulted in fuel shortages around the country, including several airports. The attackers demanded and received a ransom paid in Bitcoin. 

The report also says, Cryptocurrency is used to raise funds for terrorist organizations and other nation state threat actors. The DOJ states that its largest cryptocurrency seizure disrupted the funding campaigns of ISIS and other terrorist groups. The agency took down a fraudulent ISIS website operation that purported to sell N95 masks and other protective equipment during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Department of Justice released photo of a group posting a request for donations and claiming to be a Syrian charity, but allegedly sought funds to support the mujahidin in Syria with weapons, financial aid and other projects assisting the jihad.
The Department of Justice released photo of a group posting a request for donations and claiming to be a Syrian charity, but allegedly sought funds to support the mujahidin in Syria with weapons, financial aid and other projects assisting the jihad. (justice.gov)

The Department of Justice released photo of a group posting a request for donations and claiming to be a Syrian charity, but allegedly sought funds to support the mujahidin in Syria with weapons, financial aid and other projects assisting the jihad.

Veneziano believes that these crimes are not new theyve just adapted to cryptocurrency. We are likely not looking at the creation of brand new crimes but are instead more likely to see the crypto element incorporated into other offenses, such as crypto tax evasion, crypto theft, unregistered crypto offerings, crypto money laundering, etc. Due to the nature of the blockchain, it is likely to be confined to federal offenses as opposed to state crimes, Veneziano says.

Fondo suggests that wire fraud is also a big factor. So, youll notice in a lot of the criminal indictments, they allege wire fraud. Wire fraud is agnostic to the type of asset, whether its a security, a commodity, whatever doesnt matter. Historically, criminals would use the telephone, aka the wires, to commit fraudulent acts. Today, wire fraud refers to crimes committed using any type of telecommunications technology. According to Fondo, if you move digital assets around using the wires, and you commit fraud, its a crime, and most indictments in the crypto space fall into that category. 

For example, in a statement on Dec. 14, 2022, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Damian Williams announced charges in two separate indictments against the founders and promoters of two cryptocurrency Ponzi schemes known as IcomTech and Forcount, both with conspiracy to commit wire fraud. 

According to the DOJ, victims purchased IcomTech and Forcount investment products using cryptocurrency, cash, checks and wire transfers. They were then given access to an online portal where they could monitor dubious returns. While Victims saw profits accumulate on the schemes respective online portals, most victims were unable to withdraw any of these so-called profits and ultimately lost their entire investments. All the while, IcomTech and Fourcounts promoters skimmed hundreds of thousands of the victims funds, withdrew it as cash and spent the loot on promos for the Ponzi scheme, luxury goods and real estate. 

What other agencies are involved?

Venziano believes that collaboration between government agencies on crimes is nothing new and should be expected in the crypto sphere. Venziano says, Consider a crypto fraud scheme involving a new token. The SEC will be involved if the token is unregistered and satisfies the definition of an investment contract under the Howey test, an analysis based on a Supreme Court decision.

Wally Adeymo, deputy treasury secretary
Wally Adeymo, deputy treasury secretary. (treasure.gov)

She continues, The IRS will also be involved where there is tax evasion or the failure to report crypto sales and dispositions. Further, the DOJ may initiate an investigation where money laundering or other illicit activity is present. There is even a call for greater collaboration from the private sector to combat crypto fraud. Additional agencies, including the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the Secret Service and the Department of Homeland Security have all participated in cryptocurrency investigations. 

In the Bitzlato case, the DOJ teamed up with the Department of Treasurys Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. In a joint press conference with officials from the DOJ, Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo said that FinCEN is officially identifying Bitzlato as a primary money laundering concern in connection with Russian illicit finance. Adeyemo thanked the DOJ for being such great partners on this action but also on going after this ecosystem more broadly.

Do politics affect who the government investigates?

According to Fondo the answer is yes and no. The DOJ is part of the Executive Branch of government and the president nominates its leader, the Attorney General. The U.S. Senate is tasked with confirming the presidents nominee.

Generally, it is an agency that is agnostic in a sense as to who the president is, Fondo says. When he was a federal prosecutor, Fondo believed that he was completely immune to whoever was in the White House. On the other hand, whenever national actors are involved, Russia or China for example, Fondo says that a potential case escalates in significance. Since the DOJ gets lots of leads and complaints, so they have to prioritize resources and decide which ones to pursue.

A case that involves a national actor, stealing trade secrets, stealing assets, funneling assets (to Russia) to fight, say, the war in the Ukraine, that will rise well above something else thats an otherwise more typical crime. So, in that way, the DOJ is more political.

Fondo also believes that when there is a national scandal, like Enron, Bernnie Madoff or the fall of FTX, the government is more apt to jump in and get more involved. When something hits the press, like a major incident, there is more pressure to get charges more quickly, Fondo says.

Venziano points out that crypto activity isnt limited by geographic borders and can affect overseas markets in a matter of seconds. Crypto activity can certainly affect international politics, demanding cooperation between the United States and enforcement agencies in other nations. Take the Bitzlato case as an example. The DOJ received significant operational and informational assistance from other agencies both domestic and international including Customs and Border Protection and also EUROPOL and Dutch and Belgian authorities, Venziano says.

In the U.S., there are no federal laws on the books specifically regulating the use of cryptocurrency. Different regulatory agencies have taken responsibility and have written rules for the oversight of different digital assets. Sooner or later, Congress is expected to move legislation to the presidents desk, formally defining cryptocurrencies and how they are to be regulated.

In the meantime, Fondo believes that the lack of clarity, and even disagreement among regulators, leads to ambiguity that crypto-centric companies struggle with. In essence, its hard to follow the rules if you dont know what they are, especially on the civil, as opposed to the criminal, side of things.

Nonetheless, he believes that the industry has matured in recent years, and there are a lot of great actors out there trying to do the best they can with regulatory uncertainty, but also trying to meet the demands of the market. But, when theres a situation, a crime is a crime is a crime. If the government sees something that looks like fraud, it doesnt really matter what the asset is, and they think its significant enough and worthy of chasing, theyll do it.

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…

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  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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