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US Election 2020: The State of Events

US Election 2020: The State of Events

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“Events, dear boy, events”, UK Prime Minister Harold Macmillan responded to a journalist when asked what is most likely to blow governments off course.

At the beginning of this year, Donald Trump was favourite to follow in the footsteps of the previous three Presidents and win re-election. However, events have since unfolded that put his re-election into serious doubt.

Polling

The Democratic candidate Joseph Biden is ahead in every single national poll by wide margins, polling well outside the margin of error. The swing state polling is much closer, but it still looks favourable to Biden right now.

We need to factor in that most polls in 2016 gave Hillary Clinton a commanding lead, which did not materialise on election day. Given the unrest at the moment, this may be due to ‘shy Republicans.’ The election is still likely to be close. The latest Zogby poll of “Who do you think will win?” rather than “Who will you vote for?” gave Trump a 51%-43% lead.

The Electoral College

The US election is not won by a popular national vote: instead the candidates need to win the election state by state. Each state then gives its electoral college votes to the candidate who obtains the most popular votes within that state. Trump flipped Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa from the Democrats in order to win in 2016. He has smartly registered as a resident of Florida (from New York) for the 2020 election as he knows how important the state is for his re-election. Without it he will be a one term President.

Trump will likely hold Ohio and Iowa. Assuming he keeps Florida, that means he needs to hang on to one of the other three states from the above list. The mid-western state of Wisconsin right now looks like the place he needs to focus his efforts. He also needs to keep hold of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, all of which he won in 2016. All are traditionally Republican states but are looking close in polling. Arizona will be the state to watch. As Arizona goes, so will the country.

US election of 1968 again? – Hubert Humphrey vs Richard Nixon

The social unrest due to the Vietnam war and the ‘free love’ movement all culminated in a narrow win for the not-so-popular Richard Nixon in 1968. Nixon later said “the silent majority” had spoken: the Americans who don’t necessarily speak out, but who were unhappy with the direction of the country.

The current social unrest could be a test for Democrats. If the party shifts too far to the left it will be problematic for them. The “Defund the Police” movement will scare a lot of swing voters (with some polls showing 7 out of 10 African-Americans are against it). Democrats needs to be careful they are not captured by this.

Gun sales in May reached a high of 1.8m! That’s a lot of worried voters. Biden seems to be countering this with a strong pick for vice-president, with the short-listed candidates having strong law and order backgrounds.

Covid-19

There are now concerns over a second shutdown, with the Coronavirus infection rate rising in southern states. This could stall the momentum the economy has (the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in May to 13.3% from 14.7% in April). Trump needs this momentum to continue if he has any chance in November.

A recent poll showed that Trump still had a 95% approval rating amongst Republicans. This is very important. Carter and Bush Snr lost their re-election attempts when they lost the base of their own parties. Republicans are discussing another stimulus package, but this will not be easy to get through the senate. Hawkish senators will balk at yet more government spending and adding even more to the national debt. Trump may need it to get the economy through until November.

Policy

Trump wants out of the Paris Climate deal, but in effect the winner of the next election will decide. Joe Biden, who is more of an internationalist, will keep the US in. Expect a Green New Deal if Biden is elected, plus an increase in social spending.

Spending in general will go up under Democrats, so we should expect some pressure on US Treasury yields then. I think it is safe to assume that, if Joe Biden does win the November election, the Democrats will keep their majority in the House of Representatives and also re-capture the Senate. A single party holding both chambers and the White House will not have too much trouble passing legislation.

It is worth remembering that Joe Biden is not the self-styled Democratic-Socialist Bernie Sanders is – there will be no revolution. So financial markets should be relatively stable. Democrats tend to talk about offsetting spending with tax rises. US corporate tax rates would likely be restored to the Obama era level. Fuel tax rises would also be increased to help pay for the green new deal.

From a UK perspective, Trump is the most Anglophile holder of the office since the last elected US President from New York, Franklin Delano Roosevelt. As we are now leaving the European Union, a trade deal with the US will be very important and can be used as leverage to sign deals with other countries around the world, including the EU. The Trump administration so far has shown itself to be accommodative.

Biden/Running mate

Biden is four years older than Donald Trump. There is a chance he will commit to only one term as President. His pick of vice president will be important. It is likely to be an African American woman, with Kamala Harris (former prosecutor and California Senator) or Val Demmings (former chief of police and current Congresswoman from Florida) as favourites. Both seem sensible and uncontentious choices, but have shown tendencies of being politically naïve.

Biden will need to prove that he can be strong against foreign adversaries, especially China. It was the China rhetoric that helped propel Trump to the White House in 2016 and win over the traditionally Democratic mid-west and rust belt states.

This is Joe Biden’s third attempt at the Presidency (the first was in 1987). He lacks the political instincts of Donald Trump, Barack Obama, or Bill Clinton. The fact the candidates are unable to campaign fully right now works in Biden’s favour. But it is unlikely to stay this way until November.

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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Walmart joins Costco in sharing key pricing news

The massive retailers have both shared information that some retailers keep very close to the vest.

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As we head toward a presidential election, the presumed candidates for both parties will look for issues that rally undecided voters. 

The economy will be a key issue, with Democrats pointing to job creation and lowering prices while Republicans will cite the layoffs at Big Tech companies, high housing prices, and of course, sticky inflation.

The covid pandemic created a perfect storm for inflation and higher prices. It became harder to get many items because people getting sick slowed down, or even stopped, production at some factories.

Related: Popular mall retailer shuts down abruptly after bankruptcy filing

It was also a period where demand increased while shipping, trucking and delivery systems were all strained or thrown out of whack. The combination led to product shortages and higher prices.

You might have gone to the grocery store and not been able to buy your favorite paper towel brand or find toilet paper at all. That happened partly because of the supply chain and partly due to increased demand, but at the end of the day, it led to higher prices, which some consumers blamed on President Joe Biden's administration.

Biden, of course, was blamed for the price increases, but as inflation has dropped and grocery prices have fallen, few companies have been up front about it. That's probably not a political choice in most cases. Instead, some companies have chosen to lower prices more slowly than they raised them.

However, two major retailers, Walmart (WMT) and Costco, have been very honest about inflation. Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon's most recent comments validate what Biden's administration has been saying about the state of the economy. And they contrast with the economic picture being painted by Republicans who support their presumptive nominee, Donald Trump.

Walmart has seen inflation drop in many key areas.

Image source: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Walmart sees lower prices

McMillon does not talk about lower prices to make a political statement. He's communicating with customers and potential customers through the analysts who cover the company's quarterly-earnings calls.

During Walmart's fiscal-fourth-quarter-earnings call, McMillon was clear that prices are going down.

"I'm excited about the omnichannel net promoter score trends the team is driving. Across countries, we continue to see a customer that's resilient but looking for value. As always, we're working hard to deliver that for them, including through our rollbacks on food pricing in Walmart U.S. Those were up significantly in Q4 versus last year, following a big increase in Q3," he said.

He was specific about where the chain has seen prices go down.

"Our general merchandise prices are lower than a year ago and even two years ago in some categories, which means our customers are finding value in areas like apparel and hard lines," he said. "In food, prices are lower than a year ago in places like eggs, apples, and deli snacks, but higher in other places like asparagus and blackberries."

McMillon said that in other areas prices were still up but have been falling.

"Dry grocery and consumables categories like paper goods and cleaning supplies are up mid-single digits versus last year and high teens versus two years ago. Private-brand penetration is up in many of the countries where we operate, including the United States," he said.

Costco sees almost no inflation impact

McMillon avoided the word inflation in his comments. Costco  (COST)  Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti, who steps down on March 15, has been very transparent on the topic.

The CFO commented on inflation during his company's fiscal-first-quarter-earnings call.

"Most recently, in the last fourth-quarter discussion, we had estimated that year-over-year inflation was in the 1% to 2% range. Our estimate for the quarter just ended, that inflation was in the 0% to 1% range," he said.

Galanti made clear that inflation (and even deflation) varied by category.

"A bigger deflation in some big and bulky items like furniture sets due to lower freight costs year over year, as well as on things like domestics, bulky lower-priced items, again, where the freight cost is significant. Some deflationary items were as much as 20% to 30% and, again, mostly freight-related," he added.

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Walmart has really good news for shoppers (and Joe Biden)

The giant retailer joins Costco in making a statement that has political overtones, even if that’s not the intent.

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As we head toward a presidential election, the presumed candidates for both parties will look for issues that rally undecided voters. 

The economy will be a key issue, with Democrats pointing to job creation and lowering prices while Republicans will cite the layoffs at Big Tech companies, high housing prices, and of course, sticky inflation.

The covid pandemic created a perfect storm for inflation and higher prices. It became harder to get many items because people getting sick slowed down, or even stopped, production at some factories.

Related: Popular mall retailer shuts down abruptly after bankruptcy filing

It was also a period where demand increased while shipping, trucking and delivery systems were all strained or thrown out of whack. The combination led to product shortages and higher prices.

You might have gone to the grocery store and not been able to buy your favorite paper towel brand or find toilet paper at all. That happened partly because of the supply chain and partly due to increased demand, but at the end of the day, it led to higher prices, which some consumers blamed on President Joe Biden's administration.

Biden, of course, was blamed for the price increases, but as inflation has dropped and grocery prices have fallen, few companies have been up front about it. That's probably not a political choice in most cases. Instead, some companies have chosen to lower prices more slowly than they raised them.

However, two major retailers, Walmart (WMT) and Costco, have been very honest about inflation. Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon's most recent comments validate what Biden's administration has been saying about the state of the economy. And they contrast with the economic picture being painted by Republicans who support their presumptive nominee, Donald Trump.

Walmart has seen inflation drop in many key areas.

Image source: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Walmart sees lower prices

McMillon does not talk about lower prices to make a political statement. He's communicating with customers and potential customers through the analysts who cover the company's quarterly-earnings calls.

During Walmart's fiscal-fourth-quarter-earnings call, McMillon was clear that prices are going down.

"I'm excited about the omnichannel net promoter score trends the team is driving. Across countries, we continue to see a customer that's resilient but looking for value. As always, we're working hard to deliver that for them, including through our rollbacks on food pricing in Walmart U.S. Those were up significantly in Q4 versus last year, following a big increase in Q3," he said.

He was specific about where the chain has seen prices go down.

"Our general merchandise prices are lower than a year ago and even two years ago in some categories, which means our customers are finding value in areas like apparel and hard lines," he said. "In food, prices are lower than a year ago in places like eggs, apples, and deli snacks, but higher in other places like asparagus and blackberries."

McMillon said that in other areas prices were still up but have been falling.

"Dry grocery and consumables categories like paper goods and cleaning supplies are up mid-single digits versus last year and high teens versus two years ago. Private-brand penetration is up in many of the countries where we operate, including the United States," he said.

Costco sees almost no inflation impact

McMillon avoided the word inflation in his comments. Costco  (COST)  Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti, who steps down on March 15, has been very transparent on the topic.

The CFO commented on inflation during his company's fiscal-first-quarter-earnings call.

"Most recently, in the last fourth-quarter discussion, we had estimated that year-over-year inflation was in the 1% to 2% range. Our estimate for the quarter just ended, that inflation was in the 0% to 1% range," he said.

Galanti made clear that inflation (and even deflation) varied by category.

"A bigger deflation in some big and bulky items like furniture sets due to lower freight costs year over year, as well as on things like domestics, bulky lower-priced items, again, where the freight cost is significant. Some deflationary items were as much as 20% to 30% and, again, mostly freight-related," he added.

Read More

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