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US Dollar Losses are Extended, but Momentum Stalls in the European Morning

US Dollar Losses are Extended, but Momentum Stalls in the European Morning



Overview:  US stocks extended their gains ahead of the weekend after President Trump shied away from specific actions against China-Hong Kong, and today Hong Kong shares recovered smartly from last week's 3.6% slide.  The Hang Seng rose 3.3% today, and the Shanghai Composite gained over 2%.  All the markets in the region advanced.  Europea's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was up about 0.5% in late morning turnover, which would be the fifth gain in six sessions.  US shares are trading with a softer bias, and many link it to the social unrest in many cities that could hinder re-openings.  However, the losses are thus far too small to extrapolate to shift in sentiment or drivers.  Benchmark 10-year bonds yields have edged 1-3 bp higher, and the US 10-year yield remains pinned near 66 bp.  The dollar is weaker, with the Australian dollar leading the majors with a 1% gain.  The euro is the weakest of the majors, and it is up about 0.3%.  Most emerging market currencies are also gaining on the US dollar.  The South Korean won is the strongest, with about a 1% gain.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index has edged higher.  Today's gain, if sustained, would be the ninth in the past 11 sessions. Gold extended its advance for a third consecutive session but stalled near $1745.  Oil is flat, with the July WTI contract around $35.40.  

Asia Pacific

China's official PMI disappointed.  The composite was unchanged from April (53.4) as the slippage in the manufacturing (50.6 vs. 50.8) offset in full the rise in services (53.6 vs. 53.2).  Manufacturing output fell to 52.2 from 53.7, but new orders and new export orders rose but remain below the 50 boom/bust level.  Construction, perhaps reflecting local government's infrastructure push, rose to 60.8 from 59.7.  Both the manufacturing and service PMIs showed a rise in business expectations but continued weakness in employment.  On the other hand, the more export-oriented Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 from 49.4 in April.  

Reports indicate that Beijing ordered its large agriculture combines to halt US purchases as the relationship is reviewed.  There had been significant inquires into 20-30 cargoes at the end of last week, and China's imports or US soy and ethanol reportedly increased in the first half of May.   Like others, we have been skeptical that China could fulfill its obligations under the Phase 1 agreement.  China was to buy $36.5 bln of US farm products 2020 and in Q1 bought roughly $3.35 bln.  Despite threats of walking away from the agreement, the US won't because China's failure would give it yet another cudgel.  

Turnover in Hong Kong dollar options surged before the weekend (~$3.7 bln), according to reports, and a third was struck outside the band.  Forward points eased at the end last week and are little changed today, still near the most extreme in a couple of decades.  Talk that the peg could change to the Chinese yuan seems exaggerated.  Pegging to a currency that is not convertible has its own challenges and could undermine its stability.  The peg could be adjusted, but without calmer markets, it seems unduly risky.  Hong Kong is a full member of the World Trade Organization, but it is unlikely to deter the US from denying it most favored nation status.   The three- and 12-month Hong Kong dollar forward points eased but remain elevated.  

Broadly, the May PMI readings in the region were mixed.  Japan's was unchanged from the flash reading of 38.4, down from 41.9 in April.  South Korea's slipped to 41.3 from 41.6 in April.  After cutting rates last week, South Korea is expected to unveil a third budget (where 3/4 of the funds are expected to be spending in the first three months) later this week.  Australia's manufacturing PMI rose to 44.0 from 42.8 of the flash estimate and 44.1 previously.  India's PMI edged up to 30.8 from 27.4.  

Month-end flows saw the dollar recover ahead of the weekend form JPY107.10 to JPY107.90.  It is trading in a narrow range of JPY107.40-JPY107.85 today.  There are expiring options on both sides of that range.  At JPY107.40 is a $525 mln option, and at JPY107.80 is an $820 mln option.  After coiling for most of last week, the Australian jumped higher today, seemingly confirming the breakout.  It reached almost $0.6775, more than a cent above last week's close.  This is its best level since late January.  At the start of the year, it was above $0.7000.  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY7.1316, a little lower than the models suggested and below the previous day's close.  Although the dollar eased against the yuan, it rose against the offshore yuan, fully recovering from its initial loss.  


The main interest today is the final manufacturing PMI for May.  Germany was the source of disappointment.  The flash May reading of 36.8 was shaved to 36.6.  France's edged up to 40.6 from 40.3.  Italy and Spain rose more than expected.  Italy's rose to 45.4 from 31.1 and Spain's improved to 38.3 from 30.8.   The aggregate reading was 39.4 down from 39.5 of the initial estimate but above the 33.4 final April report. 

The UK's manufacturing PMI edged up to 40.7 from 40.6 of the flash estimate and 32.6 in April.  Reports suggest that even though the furlough pay program will taper in Q3, the UK government is looking to provide more stimulus in July.  Later this month, the Bank of England is widely expected to increase its bond purchase program.  Although Bank of England officials have kept the option on the table, a move to negative interest rates is not likely in the coming months.  

The euro's advance extended to a fifth session today with it briefly poking above $1.1150, the best level since late March.  The momentum stalled in the European morning, and the euro slipped below $1.1120.  There is an option at $1.1100 for 1.7 bln euros that expires today.  The proximity of the ECB meeting (Thursday) where it is widely expected to substantially boost its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Progam and could adjust some other policy measures may make short-term participants hesitant about driving the euro much highs.  The late March high was just shy of $1.1165, and the $1.12 area is psychologically important.  Sterling firmed to about $1.2425.  It has not seen this level since May 8.  Sterling's momentum also stalled in Asia, and it drifted lower in the European morning. It could slip back toward the $1.2350 area with changing the tone.  


Merkel had already rebuffed the US invite for a G7 meeting at the end of the month when the White House suggested that will delay the meeting until September or later.  That did not seem to matter as much as getting to suggest that Australia, South Korea, India, and Russia may be invited.  It is a thinly-veiled attempt to isolate China while overlooking that Russia had been un-invited following its annexation of Crimea.  Trump argues that the G7 no longer "properly represents what is going on in the world."  Indeed, in recent years, the G20 appears to have grown in importance.  Separately, although the UK joined Australia, Canada, and the US in condemning China's move on Hong Kong, the EU itself has been quiet, and Germany, which takes over the rotating EU Presidency starting in July called for a "critical and constructive dialogue."  

The US reports the final May manufacturing PMI and the ISM.  The take-away is that nearly every survey and sentiment indicator for May ticked up from April.  While growth collapsed here in Q2, with the Atlanta Fed putting it at -51.2%, sequential improvement is consistent with a recovery in Q3.   Canada also reports May's manufacturing PMI.  It stood at 33.0 in April.  The Bank of Canada meets in the middle of the week.  It is expected to stand pat and let its past actions take effect.  Note that it is Governor Poloz's last meeting.   The data highlight of the week for both the US and Canada will be the jobs report on June 5.   Mexico's manufacturing PMI is also on tap.  In April it was at 35.0.  Also, watch Mexico's worker remittances.  This is an important source of hard currency for the country.  They unexpectedly surged in March to $4.02 bln compared with forecasts for $2.75 bln.  The strength of the dollar in March was cited as a factor.  The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey calls for a $2.6 bln in April.  Worker remittances were about $2.9 bln in April 2019. 

The US dollar slipped below CAD1.3700 in Asia for the first time since March 11.  Here too, the greenback's momentum stalled in late Asia/early Europe, and it has bounced toward  CAD1.3740.  A close above there could set the stage for a further US dollar recovery tomorrow. On the downside, the next key technical area is near CAD1.3600.   The US dollar also slipped through MXN22.00 briefly for the first time since March 16.  Nearby resistance is pegged in the MXN22.10-MXN22.20 area.  


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Who Can You Trust?

Who Can You Trust?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via,

“I’m sick and tired of hearing Democrats whining about Joe Biden’s…



Who Can You Trust?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via,

“I’m sick and tired of hearing Democrats whining about Joe Biden’s age. The man knows how to govern. Just shut up and vote to save Democracy.”

- Rob Reiner, Hollywood savant

Perhaps you’re aware that the World Health Organization (WHO) is cooking up a plan to impose its will over all the sovereign nations on this planet in the event of future pandemics.

That means, for instance, that the WHO would issue orders to the USA about lockdowns, vaccines, and vaccine passports and we US citizens supposedly would be compelled to follow them.

Why the “Joe Biden” regime would go along with this globalist fuckery is one of the abiding mysteries of our time - except that they go along with everything else that the cabal of Geneva cooks up, such as attacks on farmers, and on oil production, and on relations between men and women, and on personal privacy, and on economic liberty throughout Western Civ, as if they’re working overtime to kill it off. And all of us with it.

I think they are working overtime at that because the sore-beset citizens of Western Civ are onto their game, and getting restless about it. So, the Geneva cabal is in a race against time before the center pole of their circus tent collapses and the nations of the world are compelled to follow the zeitgeist in the direction of de-centralizing, foiling all their grand plans.

The “Joe Biden” regime is pretending to ignore the reality that this WHO deal is actually a treaty that would require ratification by a two-thirds vote in the senate, an unlikely outcome. In any case, handing over authority to the WHO — in effect, to its chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus — to push around American citizens like a giant herd of cattle would be patently unlawful.

That center pole of the circus tent is the wobbling global economy. It’s barely holding up the canvas over the three rings of the circus. In the center ring, the death-defying spectacle of the Biden Family crime case is playing out before a huge audience (us). This week, a gun went off at the FBI and smoke is curling out of the barrel. FBI Director Christopher Wray was forced to verify that he’s been sitting on an incriminating document for three years from a “trusted” confidential human source, i.e., an informant, stating that the Biden Family received a $5-million bribe from a foreign entity when “JB” was vice-president.

That’s only one bribe of many others, of course, as documented in the Hunter Biden laptop, and it must be obvious it represents treasonous behavior that will demand resignation or impeachment. As this spools out in the weeks and months ahead, do you think Americans will be in the mood to accept further insults such as “Joe Biden” surrendering our national sovereignty to the WHO?

Anyway, you must ask yourself: why on earth should I trust the WHO about anything? Did they not participate in laying a trip on the world with Covid-19? How did those lockdowns work out? Do you think they destroyed enough businesses and ruined enough households? How’s the vaccination program doing? Effective? Safe? Yeah, maybe not so much. Maybe killing a lot of people, wrecking immune systems, sterilizing reproductive organs, causing gross disabilities, shattering lives.

Of course, in over three years neither the WHO nor the US medical authorities showed the slightest interest in helping to figure out how the Covid-19 virus was made in a lab, and exactly how it got loose in the world. Lately, Dr. Ghebreyesus has warned the world about much worse future pandemics supposedly coming down at us. Oh? Really? What does he know that we don’t? That possibly new efforts to concoct chimeric diseases are ongoing in labs around the world? (You know that dozens of such labs were discovered in Ukraine as the war got underway there in 2022.) What’s Dr. Ghebreyesus doing to stop that?

If US orgs and citizens are involved in this “research,” why doesn’t the WHO alert our government leaders so they can stop it? (Would they? I’m not so sure.) And, who is behind it this time? The Eco-Health Alliance again, like with Covid-19? By the way, that outfit got another whopping grant last fall from the NIH to “study” bat viruses — right after the NIH terminated a previous grant on account of The Eco-Health Alliance failing to turn over notebooks and other records.

No, you cannot trust the WHO about anything. The “trust horizon” (a concept introduced by the great Nicole Foss, late of The Automatic Earth dot com) is shrinking. You can no longer trust any distant authorities. You also cannot trust the US federal government (especially the executive branch behind “Joe Biden”). And notice: the trust horizon is shrinking just as the world is de-centralizing. This, you see, is the main contradiction behind all the Globalists’ twisted ambitions to control everything, including you. They are working against the current tide of human history which is pushing everything toward down-scaling, re-localization, and re-assertion of the sovereign individual person.

That trend will become increasingly evident as things organized at the giant scale start to implode — giant retail chains, medical behemoths, hedge funds, big banks, you name it. The world no longer has the mojo for globalism. There’s reason to wonder these days whether the USA has the mojo to remain a unified national polity of states. Our federal government is not only financially bankrupt beyond any coherent reckoning, it is also morally bankrupt, and it has decided to make war against its own people. None of this is satisfactory and none of this is working. It’s time to figure out who and what you can trust and act accordingly.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/04/2023 - 09:20

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Removing antimicrobial resistance from the WHO’s ‘pandemic treaty’ will leave humanity extremely vulnerable to future pandemics

Drug-resistant microbes are a serious threat for future pandemics, but the new draft of the WHO’s international pandemic agreement may not include provisions…




Antimicrobial resistance is now a leading cause of death worldwide due to drug-resistant infections, including drug-resistant strains of tuberculosis, pneumonia and Staph infections like the methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus shown here. (NIAID, cropped from original), CC BY

In late May, the latest version of the draft Pandemic Instrument, also referred to as the “pandemic treaty,” was shared with Member States at the World Health Assembly. The text was made available online via Health Policy Watch and it quickly became apparent that all mentions of addressing antimicrobial resistance in the Pandemic Instrument were at risk of removal.

Work on the Pandemic Instrument began in December 2021 after the World Health Assembly agreed to a global process to draft and negotiate an international instrument — under the Constitution of the World Health Organization (WHO) — to protect nations and communities from future pandemic emergencies.

Read more: Drug-resistant superbugs: A global threat intensified by the fight against coronavirus

Since the beginning of negotiations on the Pandemic Instrument, there have been calls from civil society and leading experts, including the Global Leaders Group on Antimicrobial Resistance, to include the so-called “silent” pandemic of antimicrobial resistance in the instrument.

Just three years after the onset of a global pandemic, it is understandable why Member States negotiating the Pandemic Instrument have focused on preventing pandemics that resemble COVID-19. But not all pandemics in the past have been caused by viruses and not all pandemics in the future will be caused by viruses. Devastating past pandemics of bacterial diseases have included plague and cholera. The next pandemic could be caused by bacteria or other microbes.

Antimicrobial resistance

Yellow particles on purple spikes
Microscopic view of Yersinia pestis, the bacteria that cause bubonic plague, on a flea. Plague is an example of previous devastating pandemics of bacterial disease. (NIAID), CC BY

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is the process by which infections caused by microbes become resistant to the medicines developed to treat them. Microbes include bacteria, fungi, viruses and parasites. Bacterial infections alone cause one in eight deaths globally.

AMR is fueling the rise of drug-resistant infections, including drug-resistant tuberculosis, drug-resistant pneumonia and drug-resistant Staph infections such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). These infections are killing and debilitating millions of people annually, and AMR is now a leading cause of death worldwide.

Without knowing what the next pandemic will be, the “pandemic treaty” must plan, prepare and develop effective tools to respond to a wider range of pandemic threats, not solely viruses.

Even if the world faces another viral pandemic, secondary bacterial infections will be a serious issue. During the COVID-19 pandemic for instance, large percentages of those hospitalized with COVID-19 required treatment for secondary bacterial infections.

New research from Northwestern University suggests that many of the deaths among hospitalized COVID-19 patients were associated with pneumonia — a secondary bacterial infection that must be treated with antibiotics.

An illustrative diagram that shows the difference between a drug resistant bacteria and a non-resistant bacteria.
Antimicrobial resistance means infections that were once treatable are much more difficult to treat. (NIAID), CC BY

Treating these bacterial infections requires effective antibiotics, and with AMR increasing, effective antibiotics are becoming a scarce resource. Essentially, safeguarding the remaining effective antibiotics we have is critical to responding to any pandemic.

That’s why the potential removal of measures that would help mitigate AMR and better safeguard antimicrobial effectiveness is so concerning. Sections of the text which may be removed include measures to prevent infections (caused by bacteria, viruses and other microbes), such as:

  • better access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene;
  • higher standards of infection prevention and control;
  • integrated surveillance of infectious disease threats from human, animals and the environment; and
  • strengthening antimicrobial stewardship efforts to optimize how antimicrobial drugs are used and prevent the development of AMR.

The exclusion of these measures would hinder efforts to protect people from future pandemics, and appears to be part of a broader shift to water-down the language in the Pandemic Instrument, making it easier for countries to opt-out of taking recommended actions to prevent future pandemics.

Making the ‘pandemic treaty’ more robust

Measures to address AMR could be easily included and addressed in the “pandemic treaty.”

In September 2022, I was part of a group of civil society and research organizations that specialize in mitigating AMR who were invited the WHO’s Intergovernmental Negotiating Body (INB) to provide an analysis on how AMR should be addressed, within the then-draft text.

They outlined that including bacterial pathogens in the definition of “pandemics” was critical. They also identified specific provisions that should be tweaked to track and address both viral and bacterial threats. These included AMR and recommended harmonizing national AMR stewardship rules.

In March 2023, I joined other leading academic researchers and experts from various fields in publishing a special edition of the Journal of Medicine, Law and Ethics, outlining why the Pandemic Instrument must address AMR.

The researchers of this special issue argued that the Pandemic Instrument was overly focused on viral threats and ignored AMR and bacterial threats, including the need to manage antibiotics as a common-pool resource and revitalize research and development of novel antimicrobial drugs.

Next steps

While earlier drafts of the Pandemic Instrument drew on guidance from AMR policy researchers and civil society organizations, after the first round of closed-door negotiations by Member States, all of these insertions, are now at risk for removal.

The Pandemic Instrument is the best option to mitigate AMR and safeguard lifesaving antimicrobials to treat secondary infections in pandemics. AMR exceeds the capacity of any single country or sector to solve. Global political action is needed to ensure the international community works together to collectively mitigate AMR and support the conservation, development and equitable distribution of safe and effective antimicrobials.

By missing this opportunity to address AMR and safeguard antimicrobials in the Pandemic Instrument, we severely undermine the broader goals of the instrument: to protect nations and communities from future pandemic emergencies.

It is important going forward that Member States recognize the core infrastructural role that antimicrobials play in pandemic response and strengthen, rather than weaken, measures meant to safeguard antimicrobials.

Antimicrobials are an essential resource for responding to pandemic emergencies that must be protected. If governments are serious about pandemic preparedness, they must support bold measures to conserve the effectiveness of antimicrobials within the Pandemic Instrument.

Susan Rogers Van Katwyk is a member of the WHO Collaborating Centre on Global Governance of Antimicrobial Resistance at York University. She receives funding from the Wellcome Trust and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

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Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination Weakens Immune System: Study

Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination Weakens Immune System: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Repeated COVID-19…



Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination Weakens Immune System: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Repeated COVID-19 vaccination weakens the immune system, potentially making people susceptible to life-threatening conditions such as cancer, according to a new study.

A man is given a COVID-19 vaccine in Chelsea, Mass., on Feb. 16, 2021. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

Multiple doses of the Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines lead to higher levels of antibodies called IgG4, which can provide a protective effect. But a growing body of evidence indicates that the “abnormally high levels” of the immunoglobulin subclass actually make the immune system more susceptible to the COVID-19 spike protein in the vaccines, researchers said in the paper.

They pointed to experiments performed on mice that found multiple boosters on top of the initial COVID-19 vaccination “significantly decreased” protection against both the Delta and Omicron virus variants and testing that found a spike in IgG4 levels after repeat Pfizer vaccination, suggesting immune exhaustion.

Studies have detected higher levels of IgG4 in people who died with COVID-19 when compared to those who recovered and linked the levels with another known determinant of COVID-19-related mortality, the researchers also noted.

A review of the literature also showed that vaccines against HIV, malaria, and pertussis also induce the production of IgG4.

“In sum, COVID-19 epidemiological studies cited in our work plus the failure of HIV, Malaria, and Pertussis vaccines constitute irrefutable evidence demonstrating that an increase in IgG4 levels impairs immune responses,” Alberto Rubio Casillas, a researcher with the biology laboratory at the University of Guadalajara in Mexico and one of the authors of the new paper, told The Epoch Times via email.

The paper was published by the journal Vaccines in May.

Pfizer and Moderna officials didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Both companies utilize messenger RNA (mRNA) technology in their vaccines.

Dr. Robert Malone, who helped invent the technology, said the paper illustrates why he’s been warning about the negative effects of repeated vaccination.

“I warned that more jabs can result in what’s called high zone tolerance, of which the switch to IgG4 is one of the mechanisms. And now we have data that clearly demonstrate that’s occurring in the case of this as well as some other vaccines,” Malone, who wasn’t involved with the study, told The Epoch Times.

So it’s basically validating that this rush to administer and re-administer without having solid data to back those decisions was highly counterproductive and appears to have resulted in a cohort of people that are actually more susceptible to the disease.”

Possible Problems

The weakened immune systems brought about by repeated vaccination could lead to serious problems, including cancer, the researchers said.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/03/2023 - 22:30

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