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US births are down again, after the COVID baby bust and rebound

The COVID-19 pandemic led to an initial decrease in birth rates in the U.S. followed by a partially offsetting rebound, as we documented in our December…

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9 months ago

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By Melissa S. Kearney, Phillip B. Levine

The COVID-19 pandemic led to an initial decrease in birth rates in the U.S. followed by a partially offsetting rebound, as we documented in our December 2021 Brookings post (based on birth counts through June 2021). A similar pattern of an initial, substantial decline in births followed by a rebound in births occurred in many other high-income countries as well. Now, three years after the declaration of the COVID public health emergency in the U.S. and with the benefit of many additional months of data, we take a final look at aggregate birth counts over the course of the pandemic and put that in the context of the long-term decline in U.S. births.

Birth certificate data on all births in the U.S. through the end of 2021 reveal that the early months of the U.S. pandemic were associated with a drop in births, leading to an overall baby bust on the order of 100,000 fewer births than would have occurred based on pre-pandemic trends. We show in a longer research paper that births fell by more in states where COVID caseloads were (initially) relatively high and unemployment rate spikes were relatively large, consistent with a behavioral response to public health and economic conditions. Some of the drop in births came in the summer and early fall of 2020, too soon to reflect behavioral changes leading to fewer conceptions. This reduction is partially explained by a modest drop in the number of pregnant immigrant women entering the country.

This period of a baby bust was followed by a period of elevated birth rates; over the next several  months, in early 2021, there were roughly 30,000 more births than would be predicted by pre-pandemic trends, partially offsetting the earlier bust. In our longer research paper, we show that births rebounded most rapidly in places with relatively quick improvements in the unemployment rate and household spending, regardless of ongoing COVID caseload counts.

Recently released provisional data on births from the U.S. CDC through the end of 2022 reveals that following the bust and rebound cycle, birth counts are back down below 2019 levels. It seems that U.S. births have returned to a downward trend­—albeit one that might be slowing relative to the pace of decline seen in U.S. births after the Great Recession.

A Downward Trend, with a COVID Disruption

Figure 1 plots total birth counts in the U.S. from 2016 through 2022, separately by quarter. We distinguish births by quarter because of the strongly seasonal pattern in birth rates: Births tend to be relatively higher during the summer (reflecting elevated conception rates during the fall) and lower during the winter (reflecting fewer babies conceived in the spring).

Quarterly births have been steadily trending downward between 2016 and 2022, with significant deviations from trend during the years of the U.S. COVID pandemic. The existence of a “baby bust” period during the earlier part of the pandemic is obvious in the figures. For instance, births in 2021 Q1 are noticeably below the trendline. These births would have been conceived in 2020 Q2, when the pandemic first hit. Births in Q4 of 2020 are also well below the downward trend; some of these births were conceived around the time of the pandemic’s onset. We note, though, that births also fell in the third quarter of 2020. Those births almost certainly were conceived before the onset of the pandemic, a point we return to below.

An initial Baby Bust

There were around 100,000 “missing births” in the 7 months associated with the COVID baby bust, spanning from August 2020 through February of 2021 (conceptions between November 2019 and May of 2020).[1] We estimate that roughly half of those can be attributed (in a timing sense) to a reduction in conceptions after the pandemic began. This would be consistent with a behavioral fertility response to economic and public health conditions. The other half are attributable to conceptions occurring prior to the start of the pandemic that did not result in a live birth. Some of these missing births conceived in late 2019 may have resulted from a shift in birth timing due to restricted health care access, or an increase in miscarriages, still births, or abortions. It could also be the case that there were fewer conceptions in late 2019 for reasons unrelated to the pandemic, and some conception dates could be assigned in error.

Changing migration patterns also account for some of the reduction in births soon after COVID’s onset. To gauge the magnitude of this effect, we use data from the American Community Survey (ACS) to tabulate the number of children born in the U.S. to mothers who immigrated in the preceding year. We see that in 2020, there were roughly 20,000 fewer children born to recent immigrants than there were between 2015 and 2018. This represents around 20% of the overall baby bust and 40% of the missing births that were conceived prior to the pandemic. That leaves an additional 30,000 missing births unaccounted for that would have been conceived before the pandemic.

A Subsequent Rebound

The data shown in Figure 1 also reveal a rebound in aggregate births. In each quarter after the COVID birth bust period of August 2020 through February 2021, birth counts are above the trend line. In our longer research paper, we documented 30,000 “excess” births in the 7-month rebound period of March through September of 2021 (reflecting likely conceptions in June through December of 2020). Here we augment these data with an additional 3 months of official CDC birth counts for October through December of 2021 and an additional 12 months of provisional CDC birth data from calendar year 2022.

While birth counts are above levels predicted by pre-pandemic trends, they are still below pre-pandemic levels.

Using these updated data, we focus on births in the 7-month window between October 2021 through April 2022, which follows the previously identified baby bust and initial periods (also defined as 7-month periods) and corresponds to likely conceptions in January 2021 through July 2021. We estimate that there were an additional 50,000 excess births during this time beyond what pre-pandemic trends would have predicted, though this estimate is not statistically significant. Monthly birth counts throughout the remainder of 2022 are similarly erratic (in a statistical sense), though generally above the level predicted based on declining pre-pandemic trends.[2]

It is unclear to what extent the above-predicted birth counts further away from the pandemic reflect a recovery of births delayed during the COVID baby bust period or whether they are a more stable reflection of “post-pandemic” fertility intentions. What the data do indicate clearly is that while birth counts are above levels predicted by pre-pandemic trends, they are still below pre-pandemic levels. In each quarter of 2022, birth counts are below the pre-pandemic level of births in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

The Longer-Term Perspective

Before the pandemic, births had been steadily declining for many years. There were almost 600,000 fewer annual births in 2019 relative to 2007—a 13% reduction. The size of the COVID-related baby bust and subsequent rebound were meaningful in that context, but they also represent short-term deviations from an ongoing trend of considerably greater importance. Birth counts in 2022 are still below what they were in 2019.

In other work, we have investigated the causes of the longer-term decline in U.S. births. That line of research has led us to tentatively conclude that “shifting priorities” about family, careers, and how to allocate one’s time and resources is the most likely explanation for the dramatic reduction in rates of childbearing seen among more recent cohorts of young adults. We have not found compelling data support for more readily observed (and potentially altered) policy or economic factors, like the price of childcare or rent. Whether the experience of the COVID pandemic—and how it shifted people’s thinking about their life choices and priorities—will ultimately lead to a sustained rebound in births, a further decline, or simply fade into memory is yet to be seen. For now, the recent data suggests that births remain below 2019 levels.

The Brookings Institution is financed through the support of a diverse array of foundations, corporations, governments, individuals, as well as an endowment. A list of donors can be found in our annual reports published online here. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this report are solely those of its author(s) and are not influenced by any donation.

[1] See our NBER working paper for a detailed description of how we calculate these numbers: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30000/w30000.pdf.

[2] Births in May 2022 through October 2022 are also somewhat higher than predicted levels, but are not statistically different. Births in November and December of 2022 are considerably higher than the predicted levels and are statistically different.

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Government

Angry Shouting Aside, Here’s What Biden Is Running On

Angry Shouting Aside, Here’s What Biden Is Running On

Last night, Joe Biden gave an extremely dark, threatening, angry State of the Union…

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5 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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Angry Shouting Aside, Here's What Biden Is Running On

Last night, Joe Biden gave an extremely dark, threatening, angry State of the Union address - in which he insisted that the American economy is doing better than ever, blamed inflation on 'corporate greed,' and warned that Donald Trump poses an existential threat to the republic.

But in between the angry rhetoric, he also laid out his 2024 election platform - for which additional details will be released on March 11, when the White House sends its proposed budget to Congress.

To that end, Goldman Sachs' Alec Phillips and Tim Krupa have summarized the key points:

Taxes

While railing against billionaires (nothing new there), Biden repeated the claim that anyone making under $400,000 per year won't see an increase in their taxes.  He also proposed a 21% corporate minimum tax, up from 15% on book income outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), as well as raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% (which would promptly be passed along to consumers in the form of more inflation). Goldman notes that "Congress is unlikely to consider any of these proposals this year, they would only come into play in a second Biden term, if Democrats also won House and Senate majorities."

Biden also called on Congress to restore the pandemic-era child tax credit.

Immigration

Instead of simply passing a slew of border security Executive Orders like the Trump ones he shredded on day one, Biden repeated the lie that Congress 'needs to act' before he can (translation: send money to Ukraine or the US border will continue to be a sieve).

As immigration comes into even greater focus heading into the election, we continue to expect the Administration to tighten policy (e.g., immigration has surged 20pp the last 7 months to first place with 28% in Gallup’s “most important problem” survey). As such, we estimate the foreign-born contribution to monthly labor force growth will moderate from 110k/month in 2023 to around 70-90k/month in 2024. -GS

Ukraine

Biden, with House Speaker Mike Johnson doing his best impression of a bobble-head, urged Congress to pass additional assistance for Ukraine based entirely on the premise that Russia 'won't stop' there (and would what, trigger article 5 and WW3 no matter what?), despite the fact that Putin explicitly told Tucker Carlson he has no further ambitions, and in fact seeks a settlement.

As Goldman estimates, "While there is still a clear chance that such a deal could come together, for now there is no clear path forward for Ukraine aid in Congress."

China

Biden, forgetting about all the aggressive tariffs, suggested that Trump had been soft on China, and that he will stand up "against China's unfair economic practices" and "for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait."

Healthcare

Lastly, Biden proposed to expand drug price negotiations to 50 additional drugs each year (an increase from 20 outlined in the IRA), which Goldman said would likely require bipartisan support "even if Democrats controlled Congress and the White House," as such policies would likely be ineligible for the budget "reconciliation" process which has been used in previous years to pass the IRA and other major fiscal party when Congressional margins are just too thin.

So there you have it. With no actual accomplishments to speak of, Biden can only attack Trump, lie, and make empty promises.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 18:00

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Jack Smith Says Trump Retention Of Documents “Starkly Different” From Biden

Jack Smith Says Trump Retention Of Documents "Starkly Different" From Biden

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Special…

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5 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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Jack Smith Says Trump Retention Of Documents "Starkly Different" From Biden

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Special counsel Jack Smith has argued the case he is prosecuting against former President Donald Trump for allegedly mishandling classified information is “starkly different” from the case the Department of Justice declined to bring against President Joe Biden over retention of classified documents.

(Left) Special counsel Jack Smith in Washington on Aug. 1, 2023. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images); (Right) Former President Donald Trump. (David Dee Delgado/Getty Images)

Prosecutors, in responding to a motion President Trump filed to dismiss the case based on selective and vindictive prosecution, said on Thursday this is not the case of “two men ‘commit[ting] the same basic crime in substantially the same manner.”

They argue the similarities are only “superficial,” and that there are two main differences: that President Trump allegedly “engaged in extensive and repeated efforts to obstruct justice and thwart the return of documents” and the “evidence concerning the two men’s intent.”

Special counsel Robert Hur’s report found that there was evidence that President Biden “willfully” retained classified Afghanistan documents, but that evidence “fell short” of concluding guilt of willful retention beyond reasonable doubt.

Prosecutors argue the “strength of the evidence” is a crucial element showing these cases are not “similarly situated.”

“Trump may dispute the Hur Report’s conclusions but he should not be allowed to misrepresent them,” prosecutors wrote, arguing that the defense’s argument to dismiss the case fell short of legal standards.

They point to volume as another distinction: President Biden had 88 classified documents and President Trump had 337. Prosecutors also argued that while President Biden’s Delaware garage “was plainly an unsecured location ... whatever risks are posed by storing documents in a private garage” were “dwarfed” by President Trump storing documents at an “active social club” with 150 staff members and hundreds of visitors.

Defense attorneys had also cited a New York Times report where President Biden was reported to have held the view that President Trump should be prosecuted, expressing concern about his retention of documents at Mar-a-lago.

Prosecutors argued that this case was not “foisted” upon the special counsel, who had not been appointed at the time of these comments.

“Trump appears to contend that it was President Biden who actually made the decision to seek the charges in this case; that Biden did so solely for unconstitutional reasons,” the filing reads. “He presents no evidence whatsoever to show that Biden’s comments about him had any bearing on the Special Counsel’s decision to seek charges, much less that the Special Counsel is a ’stalking horse.'”

8 Other Cases

President Trump has argued he is being subjected to selective and vindictive prosecution, warranting dismissal of the case, but prosecutors argue that the defense has not “identified anyone who has engaged in a remotely similar battery of criminal conduct and not been prosecuted as a result.”

In addition to President Biden, defense attorneys offered eight other examples.

Former Vice President Mike Pence had, after 2023 reports about President Biden retaining classified documents surfaced, retained legal counsel to search his home for classified documents. Some documents were found, and he sent them to the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA).

Prosecutors say this was different from President Trump’s situation, as Vice President Pence returned the documents out of his own initiative and had fewer than 15 classified documents.

Former President Bill Clinton had retained a historian to put together “The Clinton Tapes” project, and it was later reported that NARA did not have those tapes years after his presidency. A court had ruled it could not compel NARA to try to recover the records, and NARA had defined the tapes as personal records.

Prosecutors argue those were tape diaries and the situation was “far different” from President Trump’s.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had “used private email servers ... to conduct official State Department business,” the DOJ found, and the FBI opened a criminal investigation.

Prosecutors argued this was a different situation where the secretary’s emails showed no “classified” markings and the deletion of more than 31,000 emails was done by an employee and not the secretary.

Former FBI Director James Comey had retained four memos “believing that they contained no classified information.” These memos were part of seven he authored addressing interactions he had with President Trump.

Prosecutors argued there was no obstructive behavior here.

Former CIA Director David Petraeus kept bound notebooks that contained classified and unclassified notes, which he allowed a biographer to review. The FBI later seized the notebooks and Mr. Petraeus took a guilty plea.

Prosecutors argued there was prosecution in Mr. Petraeus’s case, and so President Trump’s case is not selective.

Former national security adviser Sandy Berger removed five copies of a classified document and kept them at his personal office, later shredding three of the copies. When confronted by NARA, he returned the remaining two copies and took a guilty plea.

Former CIA director John Deutch kept a journal with classified information on an unclassified computer, and also took a guilty plea.

Prosecutors argued both Mr. Berger and Mr. Deutch’s behavior was “vastly less egregious than Trump’s” and they had been prosecuted.

Former White House coronavirus response coordinator Deborah Birx had possession of classified materials according to documents retrieved by NARA.

Prosecutors argued that there was no indication she knew she had classified information or “attempted to obstruct justice.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 17:40

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International

United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."

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12 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.

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United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

More Travel:

"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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