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US banking system outlook downgraded to ‘negative’ following recent bank failures

Recent bank failures have highlighted the need for Blockchain-based cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin.
Credit rating agency Moody’s…

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Recent bank failures have highlighted the need for Blockchain-based cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin.

Credit rating agency Moody’s has recently downgraded its outlook on the entire United States banking system from “stable” to “negative.” The move comes in light of the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank, which has prompted regulators to intervene with a rescue plan for impacted depositors and institutions. 

Despite the downgrade, bank stocks rallied strongly, with the SPDR Bank exchange-traded fund rising nearly 6.5% in morning trade, NBC News reported. Moody’s reportedly noted that an extended period of low rates combined with pandemic-related fiscal and monetary stimulus have complicated bank operations. Banks with substantial unrealized securities losses and non-retail and uninsured U.S. depositors may still be at risk, according to Moody’s.

The ratings agency expects the U.S. economy to fall into recession later this year, further pressuring the financial industry. Given the recent downgrade by Moody’s, it is clear that traditional banking systems are struggling to cope with the demands and challenges of our world today. As interest rates rise and the economy enters a recession, it is likely that more banks could potentially fail, leaving more depositors vulnerable.

Some crypto enthusiasts believe that cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin, was created for a time like this, as its birth was inspired by the 2008 financial crisis. In response to the brewing financial crises and bank collapses, Bitcoin surged to its highest level since June, breaking the $26,000 mark. 

Twitter user @luke_broyles shared the opinion that this why more people should adopt Bitcoin:

For crypto enthusiasts, blockchain-based assets such as Bitcoin are a great alternative to the failing traditional banking system. 

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Trezor Bitcoin analyst Josef Tětek shared that the current sharp rise of Bitcoin appears to be a direct result of the “apparent fragility of the banking system.” Tětek noted that the current banking crisis could potentially make Bitcoin emerge as a safe haven and risk-off asset. He emphasized that Bitcoin was created soon after the world encountered the financial crisis of 2008 and was “likely a response to the unfairness of bailouts.”

According to Tětek, the recent bank failures clearly show that counter-party risk in the banking system is a “serious problem,” though it is sometimes well hidden. He said:

“Banks no longer actually hold our money, but lend it out and buy volatile assets with it. Depositors are, in fact, the banks’ creditors. Understandably, people are looking for alternatives such as Bitcoin.”

Related: Bitcoin price breaks $26K as US inflation comes in at 6%

By providing a more secure, transparent, and efficient financial system, many technology enthusiasts believe that blockchain-based finance and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin can play a crucial role in mitigating the risks of traditional banking and ensuring that individuals and businesses have access to the financial services they need.

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Fed, central banks enhance ‘swap lines’ to combat banking crisis

Currency swap lines have been used during times of crisis in the past, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.

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Currency swap lines have been used during times of crisis in the past, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.

The United States Federal Reserve has announced a coordinated effort with five other central banks aimed at keeping the U.S. dollar flowing amid a series of banking blowups in the U.S. and in Europe.

The March 19 announcement from the U.S. Fed comes only a few hours after Swiss-based bank Credit Suisse was bought out by UBS for nearly $2 billion as part of an emergency plan led by Swiss authorities to preserve the country's financial stability.

According to the Federal Reserve Board, a plan to shore up liquidity conditions will be carried out through “swap lines” — an agreement between two central banks to exchange currencies.

Swap lines previously served as an emergency-like action for the Federal Reserve in the 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Federal Reserve-initiated swap lines are designed to improve liquidity in dollar funding markets during tough economic conditions.

"To improve the swap lines’ effectiveness in providing U.S. dollar funding, the central banks currently offering U.S. dollar operations have agreed to increase the frequency of seven-day maturity operations from weekly to daily," the Fed said in a statement.

The swap line network will include the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. It will start on March 20 and continue at least until April 30.

The move also comes amid a negative outlook for the U.S. banking system, with Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsing and the New York District of Financial Services (NYDFS) takeover of Signature Bank.

The Federal Reserve however made no direct reference to the recent banking crisis in its statement. Instead, it explained that they implemented the swap line agreement to strengthen the supply of credit to households and businesses:

“The network of swap lines among these central banks is a set of available standing facilities and serve as an important liquidity backstop to ease strains in global funding markets, thereby helping to mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses.”

The latest announcement from the Fed has sparked a debate about whether the arrangement constitutes quantitative easing.

U.S. economist Danielle DiMartino Booth argued however that the arrangements are unrelated to quantitative easing or inflation and that it does not "loosen" financial conditions:

The Federal Reserve has been working to prevent an escalation of the banking crisis.

Related: Banking crisis: What does it mean for crypto?

Last week, the Federal Reserve set up a $25 billion funding program to ensure banks have sufficient liquidity to cover customer needs amid tough market conditions.

A recent analysis by several economists on the SVB collapse found that up to 186 U.S. banks are at risk of insolvency:

“Even if only half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, almost 190 banks are at a potential risk of impairment to insured depositors, with potentially $300 billion of insured deposits at risk.”

Cointelegraph reached out to the Federal Reserve for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

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MGM Shares Surprising Las Vegas Strip News

Two of the resort casino operator’s executives spoke at a recent event where they talked about Las Vegas’s covid comeback.

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Two of the resort casino operator's executives spoke at a recent event where they talked about Las Vegas's covid comeback.

The Las Vegas Strip suffered during the covid pandemic when lights on the iconic 4.2-mile stretch of road literally went dark due to a government-mandated closure. Recovery, however, has been not exactly a straight line because the lingering impact of the pandemic has been a drag on some key business areas.

The two biggest players on the Strip -- Caesars Entertainment (CZR) - Get Free Report and MGM Resorts International (MGM) - Get Free Report -- have both had to make decisions without being able to use the past as a guide. In most years, for example, you could make a reasonable guess as to how many people might visit the city during a major convention based on how many attendees that show had the past year.

DON'T MISS: Las Vegas Strip Faces a New Post-Pandemic Reality

Covid, however, changed that equation. Some companies have realized that maybe they don't need to spend the money on exhibiting or attending shows while others may have employees reticent to be in crowded spaces.

In addition, some major events -- like CES in 2022 -- saw attendance plummet at the last minute due to a spike in covid numbers. Add in that international travelers and some more-vulnerable populations have continued to be wary of travel and it makes planning a challenge for Caesars and MGM.

All of this has led to low prices for tourists and business travelers -- especially those who booked far in advance. That has been slowly changing, especially for major non-business tourist events like March Madness, the NFL Draft, and November's Formula 1 race (a weekend where Caesars, MGM, and the other Strip operators may break pricing records).

Rising prices and a rebounding convention business don't mean the end of Las Vegas as a value destination for tourists, according to MGM COO Corey Sanders, who spoke at the recent J.P. Morgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum in Las Vegas. 

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MGM Expects a Convention Comeback (Just Not Yet)

Although Las Vegas has largely returned to normal after its covid disruptions, room rates at many Caesars and MGM properties remain below historic norms. That's at least partially because the convention business remained soft in 2022 and not having those huge blocks of rooms booked led to the casino operators generally keeping prices low.

That's expected to continue through 2023, according to Sanders, Casino.org reported.

"With regards to convention, in particular with MGM, we’re going to be down a little bit this year. Some of it is strategic. We have made a decision that on weekends, we’ll put less convention business in our buildings,” he shared.

Fewer rooms booked for conventions generally means lower rates across the Strip.

Sanders said he expected 2023 to be a "decent" year for MGM's Strip convention business, but he believes that 2024 and 2025 will be stronger.

MGM Sees the Value of an Affordable Las Vegas

A convention business bounceback, however, does not mean an end to affordable Las Vegas Strip hotel rooms, according to MGM Senior Vice President Sarah Rogers, who joined Sanders onstage. She made it clear that MGM understands that the Las Vegas Strip must maintain its status as an affordable vacation destination.

“We still offer a relative value. That gap has tightened a little bit,” said Rogers. “Some of those drivers that have allowed us to sustain that are things like continued programming, improved product, and the suite offering that we have. So we’re comfortable that we still offer relative value.”

Sanders also pointed out that "much of the increase in traffic at Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas is attributable to economy carriers, meaning the travel costs to get to the U.S. casino hub are, broadly speaking, tolerable for a broad swath of customers," Casino.org's Todd Shriber wrote. 

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The Growing Auto Loan Problem Facing Young Americans

The Growing Auto Loan Problem Facing Young Americans

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans have taken on significantly more debt to buy vehicles….

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The Growing Auto Loan Problem Facing Young Americans

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans have taken on significantly more debt to buy vehicles. This is especially true for Gen Z and Millennials, who the Federal Reserve believes may have borrowed beyond their means.

In this infographic, Visual Capitalist's Marcu Lu visualizes data from the Fed’s most recent consumer debt update.

Aggressive Borrowing

The first chart in this graphic shows the growth in outstanding car loans between Q2 2020 (start of the pandemic) to Q4 2022 (latest available).

We can see that Americans under the age of 40 have grown their vehicle-related debt the most. It’s natural for Gen Z (ages 11-26) to have higher growth figures because many of them are buying their first car, but 31% is quite high relatively speaking.

Part of this can be attributed to today’s inflationary environment, which has pushed used car prices to new highs. Supply chain issues have also resulted in over 30% of new cars being sold above MSRP.

Because of these rising prices, the Fed reports that the average auto loan is now $24,000, up 41% from 2019’s value of $17,000.

Spiking Delinquencies

Interest rates on auto loans are typically fixed, meaning many young Americans were able to take advantage of the low rates seen during the pandemic.

Despite this, one in five Gen Zs say that their car payments account for over 20% of their after-tax income.

Shown in the second chart of this infographic, the amount of auto debt transitioning into serious delinquency is much higher for Gen Z and Millennials. Throughout 2022, these generations saw $20 billion in auto debt fall 90+ days behind.

The outlook for these struggling borrowers is bleak. First there’s inflation, which has pushed up the prices of most consumer goods. This eats into their ability to make car payments.

Second is rising interest rates, which make credit card debt—another pain point for young borrowers—even more costly. Finally, there’s student loans, which are expected to resume in summer 2023. Payments on student debt have been suspended since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/18/2023 - 14:30

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