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US and Canada Report on Jobs as G7 Fin Mins Talk Taxes

Overview: Stronger than expected US employment data, ahead of today’s monthly report and compromise proposal on corporate tax by the White House to help secure a deal on infrastructure sent US bond yields and the dollar high. Late dollar shorts were force

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Overview: Stronger than expected US employment data, ahead of today's monthly report and compromise proposal on corporate tax by the White House to help secure a deal on infrastructure sent US bond yields and the dollar high. Late dollar shorts were forced to cover.  The greenback is mixed now, with the yen, sterling, and Antipodeans slightly firmer. The Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar, and euro are still heavy.  The dollar is rising against most emerging market currencies, though, of note, the Turkish lira is stabilizing after losing about 1.25% yesterday, its largest loss in four weeks.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is slipping for the second consecutive session and is practically flat on the week.  China, Australia, and New Zealand equities rose ahead of the weekend, but most other markets in the Asia Pacific region fell, while  Tokyo was mixed.  European bourses are mixed, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 hovering around the record high set on Tuesday.  US futures are little changed, and the 10-year Treasury yield is around 1.63%, about a three basis point increase on the week.  The two-year yield is poking above 16 bp for the first time in three weeks.  European bonds are quiet.  Note that rating decisions are expected today from Moody's for Russia and Turkey, while Fitch assesses Italy and DBRS, Germany.  Gold, which had traded as high as $1910 yesterday, extended the biggest drop in four weeks and fell to almost $1856 before finding a bid in Asia.  Even if little changed, oil prices are firm, with the July WTI contract hovering around $69 a barrel, consolidating a 4.25% gain this week.  

Asia Pacific

Japan's household spending in April was stronger than expected, rising 13% year-over-year.  The acceleration from 6.2% in March illustrates the powerful base effect.  On a seasonally adjusted basis, spending rose by a minor 0.1%, though it is the third consecutive monthly increase.  The extended emergency into June and the weakness in income point to continued challenges ahead.  Many economists expect the world's third-largest economy may be contracting still.  On the other hand, the pace of vaccinations is accelerating, and a stronger recovery is expected in H2.  

As widely anticipated, the Reserve Bank of India kept its repo at 4% but adjusted other dimensions of its monetary policy.  It announced a Q3 bond-buying of INR1.2 trillion (~$16.4 bln) after completing INR1 trillion purchases this quarter.  The central bank also extended its liquidity facility for businesses especially hit hard by the pandemic. As a result, the fiscal year's GDP forecast was cut to 9.5% from 10.5%.  The RBI now sees inflation finishing the year just above 5%.  The latest print, for April, stood at 4.3%.

The US will prohibit new purchases of equities in 59 Chinese companies as of August 2.  This looks like a net add of 11 new businesses from what was inherited from the previous administration.  The Biden administration has put the initiative on stronger legal footing and made the policy clearer and more transparent.  It will be run by the US Treasury, with input by State and Defense Departments.  It will be updated on a rolling basis. 

The dollar rose to almost JPY110.35 in early Asia before stalling.  It is holding above JPY110.00, and there is an expiring option for $440 mln at JPY109.90.  The attempt to rechallenge the year's high set at the end of March near JPY111 appears to require a further increase in US yields.  The Australian dollar consolidated yesterday's sell-off that brought it to its lowest level since mid-April, a little below $0.7650.  Yesterday's fall, about 1.3%, was the largest since mid-May.  The next important support is in the $0.7580-$0.7600 area.  The greenback rose against the Chinese yuan for the fourth session this week.  The cumulative gain of about 0.66% was the largest since last September.  The dollar approached the 20-day moving average (~CNY6.4140) for the first time since mid-April.  We had suggested potential into the gap from May 24-25 found between CNY6.4150 and CNY6.4180.  A move above there targets the CNY6.4400-CNY6.4550 area.  Today's fixing was the tightest this week.  At CNY6.4072, it compares with the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey of CNY6.4074.  

Europe

The G7 finance minister meets today.  The focus is on coordinating the tax reform position that can be presented to the G20 and OECD.  The US is downplaying expectations.  As we discuss below, the minimum tax of the revised US proposal of 15% needs to be understood within the context of US domestic politics.  Previously, the OECD had been discussing a minimum rate of 12.5%, which would have avoided the pushback by Ireland.  There seems to be greater interest in Europe to address the problem that some companies with a large internet presence do not pay taxes to local authorities for local sales.  There does appear to be an agreement to reform this process and not just apply it to US tech giants, but the thresholds of revenues and profits appear to still be debated.  Separately, the UK host is pushing hard for an agreement to impose some environmental impact/risks reporting by large businesses.  

Yesterday's announcement that one of Russia's sovereign wealth funds would complete its shift away from the US dollar had little market impact. It seemed a more symbolic defiant move ahead of the Biden-Putin meeting on June 16.  To be sure, it is not Russia abandoning the dollar as much as it has been the US sanction regime that has tightened.  The National Well-Being Fund will shift its dollar holdings, estimated to be less than $35 bln to the central bank. No market operation is necessary. The central bank manages the allocation of its reserves and has been authorized to buy gold too.  Although there is a perennial fear that the dollar's reserve role will change, the fact of the matter is that as of the end of last year, foreign central banks held more dollars than ever before in reserves (~$7 trillion).  The US Treasury's TIC data, which is not comprehensive, showed Russia's Treasury bond holdings at $4 bln in March, down from $10 bln at the end of 2019 and $102.5 bln at the end of 2017.  We argue that a move out of Treasuries and into European bonds and gold comes at the cost of yield, transparency, and liquidity. 

The euro peaked on Monday near $1.2255.  It is testing the $1.2100 area in late morning turnover in Europe.  There is a 1.14 bln euro option at $1.21 that expires a little after the US jobs report.  Today could be the fourth consecutive losing session, and yesterday's loss was the biggest since April 30.  The next target is around $1.2050, a (38.2%) retracement of the rally since the March 31 low.  Below there, support is expected in the $1.1985-$1.2000 area.  The $1.2140 area offers the initial cap.  Sterling posted a bearish outside down day yesterday, but follow-through selling was limited to a few ticks, and it has returned above $1.4100.  It is holding below the 20-day moving average (~$1.4140) for the first time since mid-April. It needs to resurface above it to stabilize the tone into next week.   

America

To boost the chances of forging a deal with Republicans on a substantial infrastructure bill, the White House offered to amend its call to unwind Trump's tax cuts on corporations and lift the tax schedule back to 28%.  The problem with the tax hike is not that Republicans oppose it. Rather, it is that Biden has not persuaded all of the Democrat Senators of the merit.  The compromise is a 15% minimum tax--there is no minimum now, but the average effective tax rate is of profitable businesses is even lower, according to some estimates.  We had underscored the linkage between Biden's domestic agenda and the reversal of the US position at the OECD/G20.  Biden first proposed a 21% minimum corporate tax rate.  The lack of sufficient support spurred a compromise of a 15% global minimum.  The G7 finance ministers are coalescing around this now.  

The unexpectedly mediocre April job report presaged a string of disappointing data that included retail sales, industrial production,  housing starts, durable goods orders, and personal expenditures.  Even under normal times, employment data can be volatile and subject to statistically significant revisions.  While the market often does not focus on data revisions, a large upward revision to the April series coupled with a robust May report would be a powerful cocktail. Note that there have been more references to talking about tapering at the coming meetings since the big miss in the April report. Just like the Fed is looking through the near-term uptick in inflation, it is looking through the volatility of the monthly employment report.  The four-week moving average of weekly jobless claims has halved since late last year.  They remain elevated but significant progress has been made.  The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey has crept up and now is just north of 670k.  The surge in the ADP private-sector estimate to 978k was above expectation but partly blunted by the downward revision to the April series (to 654k from 742k). It is still a multiple of the government's initial estimate of  218k private-sector job growth.  Confidence that the combination of fiscal/monetary stimulus and the widespread vaccination and re-open is accelerating growth, we look for a strong report and upward revisions to the April estimate. Like last time, though, the initial move in the markets may be a head fake.   

Canada's April employment report was also disappointed.  It lost 207k jobs, of which nearly 130k were full-time positions. It is expected to have shed employment again last month.  If it does, the Bank of Canada may temper its rhetoric at next week's meeting.  Recall that at its last meeting (April 21), it announced it would slow its bond purchases and anticipated the output gap would be closed in H2 22.  As early as mid-March, the market was discounting the better part of 75 bp of interest rate hikes over the next two years.  Since the April announcement, the market has moved broadly sideways between around 65-75 bp of tightening priced in.  However, during the same time, the Canadian dollar has appreciated by almost 2% to bring the year-to-date appreciation to over 5%, the strongest of the major currencies.  The Bank of Canada has expressed concern recently about the loss of competitiveness of further currency appreciation.  The Canadian dollar has stalled near $0.8330 (~CAD1.20), an important chart area.  It could mark the neckline of a large topping pattern that would signal a move back to parity and beyond over time.  

The US dollar set a new four-year low on Tuesday, a little above CAD1.20, and jumped to CAD1.2120 yesterday.  It closed above the 20-day moving average for the first time since April 20, the day before the Bank of Canada's hawkish announcement.  Follow-through buying is pressing into the CAD1.2130 area.  Resistance is seen in the CAD1.2145 area, and a break of it would signal a test on the CAD1.22 area, the high from mid-May.  The Mexican peso also remains under pressure after falling by 1.3% yesterday.  The dollar is trading near MXN20.20 in Europe. Nearby resistance around MXN20.22 does not look particularly strong, and the risk may extend toward the early May highs a little above MXN20.30.  The legislative and local elections this weekend may keep players on edge, but so will its proxy for the region as a whole.  Peru's presidential run-off has weighed on the sol.  Chile's legislature may consider a bill that allows entire pension savings to be withdrawn, and this undermined the peso yesterday and triggered a sharp 4% sell-off in local shares. It leaves Brazil as the regional favorite. Brazil reports May services and composite PMI.  Both are likely to have remained below the 50 boom/bust level.  The dollar fell for the sixth consecutive session yesterday against the Brazilian real and is approaching strong support near BRL5.00.  


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EyePoint poaches medical chief from Apellis; Sandoz CFO, longtime BioNTech exec to retire

Ramiro Ribeiro
After six years as head of clinical development at Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Ramiro Ribeiro is joining EyePoint Pharmaceuticals as CMO.
“The…

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Ramiro Ribeiro

After six years as head of clinical development at Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Ramiro Ribeiro is joining EyePoint Pharmaceuticals as CMO.

“The retinal community is relatively small, so everybody knows each other,” Ribeiro told Endpoints News in an interview. “As soon as I started to talk about EyePoint, I got really good feedback from KOLs and physicians on its scientific standards and quality of work.”

Ribeiro kicked off his career as a clinician in Brazil, earning a doctorate in stem cell therapy for retinal diseases. He previously held roles at Alcon and Ophthotech Corporation, now known as Astellas’ M&A prize Iveric Bio.

At Apellis, Ribeiro oversaw the Phase III development, filing and approval of Syfovre, the first drug for geographic atrophy secondary to age-related macular degeneration (AMD). The complement C3 inhibitor went on to make $275 million in 2023 despite reports of a rare side effect that only emerged after commercialization.

Now, Ribeiro is hoping to replicate that success with EyePoint’s lead candidate, EYP-1901 for wet AMD, which is set to enter the Phase III LUGANO trial in the second half of the year after passing a Phase II test in December.

Ribeiro told Endpoints he was optimistic about the company’s intraocular sustained-delivery tech, which he said could help address treatment burden and compliance issues seen with injectables. He also has plans to expand the EyePoint team.

“My goal is not just execution of the Phase III study — of course that’s a priority — but also looking at the pipeline and which different assets we can bring in to leverage the strength of the team that we have,” Ribeiro said.

Ayisha Sharma


Remco Steenbergen

Sandoz CFO Colin Bond will retire on June 30 and board member Remco Steenbergen will replace him. Steenbergen, who will step down from the board when he takes over on July 1, had a 20-year career with Philips and has held the group CFO post at Deutsche Lufthansa since January 2021. Bond joined Sandoz nearly two years ago and is the former finance chief at Evotec and Vifor Pharma. Investors didn’t react warmly to Wednesday’s news as shares fell by almost 4%.

The Swiss generics and biosimilars company, which finally split from Novartis in October 2023, has also nominated FogPharma CEO Mathai Mammen to the board of directors. The ex-R&D chief at J&J will be joined by two other new faces, Swisscom chairman Michael Rechsteiner and former Unilever CFO Graeme Pitkethly.

On Monday, Sandoz said it completed its $70 million purchase of Coherus BioSciencesLucentis biosimilar Cimerli sooner than expected. The FDA then approved its first two biosimilars of Amgen’s denosumab the next day, in a move that could whittle away at the pharma giant’s market share for Prolia and Xgeva.

Sean Marett

BioNTech’s chief business and commercial officer Sean Marett will retire on July 1 and will have an advisory role “until the end of the year,” the German drugmaker said in a release. Legal chief James Ryan will assume CBO responsibilities and BioNTech plans to name a new chief commercial officer by the end of the month. Marett was hired as BioNTech’s COO in 2012 after gigs at GSK, Evotec and Next Pharma, and led its commercial efforts as the Pfizer-partnered Comirnaty received the first FDA approval for a Covid-19 vaccine. BioNTech has also built a cancer portfolio that TD Cowen’s Yaron Werber described as “one of the most extensive” in biotech, from antibody-drug conjugates to CAR-T therapies.

Chris Austin

→ GSK has plucked Chris Austin from Flagship and he’ll start his new gig as the pharma giant’s SVP, research technologies on April 1. After a long career at NIH in which he was director of the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), Austin became CEO of Flagship’s Vesalius Therapeutics, which debuted with a $75 million Series A two years ago this week but made job cuts that affected 43% of its employees six months into the life of the company. In response to Austin’s departure, John Mendlein — who chairs the board at Sail Biomedicines and has board seats at a few other Flagship biotechs — will become chairman and interim CEO at Vesalius “later this month.”

BioMarin has lined up Cristin Hubbard to replace Jeff Ajer as chief commercial officer on May 20. Hubbard worked for new BioMarin chief Alexander Hardy as Genentech’s SVP, global product strategy, immunology, infectious diseases and ophthalmology, and they had been colleagues for years before Hardy was named Genentech CEO in 2019. She shifted to Roche Diagnostics as global head of partnering in 2021 and had been head of global product strategy for Roche’s pharmaceutical division since last May. Sales of the hemophilia A gene therapy Roctavian have fallen well short of expectations, but Hardy insisted in a recent investor call that BioMarin is “still very much at the early stage” in the launch.

Pilar de la Rocha

BeiGene has promoted Pilar de la Rocha to head of Europe, global clinical operations. After 13 years in a variety of roles at Novartis, de la Rocha was named global head of global clinical operations excellence at the Brukinsa maker in the summer of 2022. A short time ago, BeiGene ended its natural killer cell therapy alliance with Shoreline Biosciences, saying that it was “a result of BeiGene’s internal prioritization decisions and does not reflect any deficit in Shoreline’s platform technology.”

Andy Crockett

Andy Crockett has resigned as CEO of KalVista Pharmaceuticals. Crockett had been running the company since its launch in 2011 and will hand the keys to president Ben Palleiko, who joined KalVista in 2016 as CFO. Serious safety issues ended a Phase II study of its hereditary angioedema drug KVD824, but KalVista is mounting a comeback with positive Phase III results for sebetralstat in the same indication and could compete with Takeda’s injectable Firazyr. “If approved, sebetralstat may offer a compelling treatment option for patients and their caregivers given the long-standing preference for an effective and safe oral therapy that provides rapid symptom relief for HAE attacks,” Crockett said last month.

Steven Lo

Vaxart has tapped Steven Lo as its permanent president and CEO, while interim chief Michael Finney will stay on as chairman. Endpoints News last caught up with Lo when he became CEO at Valitor, the UC Berkeley spinout that raised a $28 million Series B round in October 2022. The ex-Zosano Pharma CEO had a handful of roles in his 13 years at Genentech before his appointments as chief commercial officer of Corcept Therapeutics and Puma Biotechnology. Andrei Floroiu resigned as Vaxart’s CEO in mid-January.

Kartik Krishnan

Kartik Krishnan has taken over for Martin Driscoll as CEO of OncoNano Medicine, and Melissa Paoloni has moved up to COO at the cancer biotech located in the Dallas-Fort Worth suburb of Southlake. The execs were colleagues at Arcus Biosciences, Gilead’s TIGIT partner: Krishnan spent two and a half years in the CMO post, while Paoloni was VP of corporate development and external alliances. In 2022, Krishnan took the CMO job at OncoNano and was just promoted to president and head of R&D last November. Paoloni came on board as OncoNano’s SVP, corporate development and strategy not long after Krishnan’s first promotion.

Genesis Research Group, a consultancy specializing in market access, has brought in David Miller as chairman and CEO, replacing co-founder Frank Corvino — who is transitioning to the role of vice chairman and senior advisor. Miller joins the New Jersey-based team with a number of roles under his belt from Biogen (SVP of global market access), Elan (VP of pharmacoeconomics) and GSK (VP of global health outcomes).

Adrian Schreyer

Adrian Schreyer helped build Exscientia’s AI drug discovery platform from the ground up, but he has packed his bags for Nimbus Therapeutics’ AI partner Anagenex. The new chief technology officer joined Exscientia in 2013 as head of molecular informatics and was elevated to technology chief five years later. He then held the role of VP, AI technology until January, a month before Exscientia fired CEO Andrew Hopkins.

Paul O’Neill has been promoted from SVP to EVP, quality & operations, specialty brands at Mallinckrodt. Before his arrival at the Irish pharma in March 2023, O’Neill was executive director of biologics operations in the second half of his 12-year career with Merck driving supply strategy for Keytruda. Mallinckrodt’s specialty brands portfolio includes its controversial Acthar Gel (a treatment for flares in a number of chronic and autoimmune indications) and the hepatorenal syndrome med Terlivaz.

David Ford

→ Staying in Ireland, Prothena has enlisted David Ford as its first chief people officer. Ford worked in human resources at Sanofi from 2002-17 and then led the HR team at Intercept, which was sold to Italian pharma Alfasigma in late September. We recently told you that Daniel Welch, the former InterMune CEO who was a board member at Intercept for six years, will succeed Lars Ekman as Prothena’s chairman.

Ben Stephens

→ Co-founded by Sanofi R&D chief Houman Ashrafian and backed by GSK, Eli Lilly partner Sitryx stapled an additional $39 million to its Series A last fall. It has now welcomed a pair of execs: Ben Stephens (COO) had been finance director for ViaNautis Bio and Rinri Therapeutics, and Gordon Dingwall (head of clinical operations) is a Roche and AstraZeneca vet who led development operations at Mission Therapeutics. Dingwall has also served as a clinical operations leader for Shionogi and Freeline Therapeutics.

Steve Alley

MBrace Therapeutics, an antibody-drug conjugate specialist that nabbed $85 million in Series B financing last November, has named Steve Alley as CSO. Alley spent two decades at Seagen before the $43 billion buyout by Pfizer and was the ADC maker’s executive director, translational sciences.

→ California cancer drug developer Apollomics, which has been mired in Nasdaq compliance problems nearly a year after it joined the public markets through a SPAC merger, has recruited Matthew Plunkett as CFO. Plunkett has held the same title at Nkarta as well as Imago BioSciences — leading the companies to $290 million and $155 million IPOs, respectively — and at Aeovian Pharmaceuticals since March 2022.

Heinrich Haas

→ Co-founded by Oxford professor Adrian Hill — the co-inventor of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine — lipid nanoparticle biotech NeoVac has brought in Heinrich Haas as chief technology officer. During his nine years at BioNTech, Haas was VP of RNA formulation and drug delivery.

Kimberly Lee

→ New Jersey-based neuro biotech 4M Therapeutics is making its Peer Review debut by introducing Kimberly Lee as CBO. Lee was hired at Taysha Gene Therapies during its meteoric rise in 2020 and got promoted to chief corporate affairs officer in 2022. Earlier, she led corporate strategy and investor relations efforts for Lexicon Pharmaceuticals.

→ Another Peer Review newcomer, Osmol Therapeutics, has tapped former Exelixis clinical development chief Ron Weitzman as interim CMO. Weitzman only lasted seven months as medical chief of Tango Therapeutics after Marc Rudoltz had a similarly short stay in that position. Osmol is going after chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy and chemotherapy-induced cognitive impairment with its lead asset OSM-0205.

→ Last August, cardiometabolic disease player NeuroBo Pharmaceuticals locked in Hyung Heon Kim as president and CEO. Now, the company is giving Marshall Woodworth the title of CFO and principal financial and accounting officer, after he served in the interim since last October. Before NeuroBo, Woodworth had a string of CFO roles at Nevakar, Braeburn Pharmaceuticals, Aerocrine and Fureix Pharmaceuticals.

Claire Poll

Claire Poll has retired after more than 17 years as Verona Pharma’s general counsel, and the company has appointed Andrew Fisher as her successor. In his own 17-year tenure at United Therapeutics that ended in 2018, Fisher was chief strategy officer and deputy general counsel. The FDA will decide on Verona’s non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis candidate ensifentrine by June 26.

Nancy Lurker

Alkermes won its proxy battle with Sarissa Capital Management and is tinkering with its board nearly nine months later. The newest director, Bristol Myers Squibb alum Nancy Lurker, ran EyePoint Pharmaceuticals from 2016-23 and still has a board seat there. For a brief period, Lurker was chief marketing officer for Novartis’ US subsidiary.

→ Chaired by former Celgene business development chief George Golumbeski, Shattuck Labs has expanded its board to nine members by bringing in ex-Seagen CEO Clay Siegall and Tempus CSO Kate Sasser. Siegall holds the top spots at Immunome and chairs the board at Tourmaline Bio, while Sasser came to Tempus from Genmab in 2022.

Scott Myers

→ Ex-AMAG Pharmaceuticals and Rainier Therapeutics chief Scott Myers has been named chairman of the board at Convergent Therapeutics, a radiopharma player that secured a $90 million Series A last May. Former Magenta exec Steve Mahoney replaced Myers as CEO of Viridian Therapeutics a few months ago.

→ Montreal-based Find Therapeutics has elected Tony Johnson to the board of directors. Johnson is in his first year as CEO of Domain Therapeutics. He is also the former chief executive at Goldfinch Bio, the kidney disease biotech that closed its doors last year.

Habib Dable

→ Former Acceleron chief Habib Dable has replaced Kala Bio CEO Mark Iwicki as chairman of the board at Aerovate Therapeutics, which is signing up patients for Phase IIb and Phase III studies of its lead drug AV-101 for pulmonary arterial hypertension. Dable joined Aerovate’s board in July and works part-time as a venture partner for RA Capital Management.

Julie Cherrington

→ In the burgeoning world of ADCs, Elevation Oncology is developing one of its own that targets Claudin 18.2. Its board is now up to eight members with the additions of Julie Cherrington and Mirati CMO Alan Sandler. Cherrington, a venture partner at Brandon Capital Partners, also chairs the boards at Actym Therapeutics and Tolremo Therapeutics. Sandler took the CMO job at Mirati in November 2022 and will stay in that position after Bristol Myers acquired the Krazati maker.

Patty Allen

Lonnie Moulder’s Zenas BioPharma has welcomed Patty Allen to the board of directors. Allen was a key figure in Vividion’s $2 billion sale to Bayer as the San Diego biotech’s CFO, and she’s a board member at Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, SwanBio Therapeutics and Anokion.

→ In January 2023, Y-mAbs Therapeutics cut 35% of its staff to focus on commercialization of Danyelza. This week, the company has reserved a seat on its board of directors for Nektar Therapeutics CMO Mary Tagliaferri. Tagliaferri also sits on the boards of Enzo Biochem and is a former board member of RayzeBio.

→ The ex-Biogen neurodegeneration leader at the center of Aduhelm’s controversial approval is now on the scientific advisory board at Asceneuron, a Swiss-based company focused on Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s. Samantha Budd-Haeberlein tops the list of new SAB members, which also includes Henrik Zetterberg, Rik Ossenkoppele and Christopher van Dyck.

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Deflationary pressures in China – be careful what you wish for

Until recently, China’s decelerating inflation was welcomed by the West, as it led to lower imported prices and helped reduce inflationary pressures….

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Until recently, China’s decelerating inflation was welcomed by the West, as it led to lower imported prices and helped reduce inflationary pressures. However, China’s consumer prices fell for the third consecutive month in December 2023, delaying the expected rebound in economic activity following the lifting of COVID-19 controls. For calendar year 2023, CPI growth was negligible, whilst the producer price index declined by 3.0 per cent.

China’s inflation dynamics

China’s inflation dynamics

Chinese consumers are hindered by the weaker residential property market and high youth unemployment. Several property developers have defaulted, collectively wiping out nearly all the U.S.$155 billion worth of U.S. dollar denominated-bonds. 

Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index is at half of its record high, recorded in late 2007. The share prices of major developers, including Evergrande Group, Country Garden Holdings, Sunac China and Shimao Group, have declined by an average of 98 per cent over recent years. Some economists are pointing to the Japanese experience of a debt-deflation cycle in the 1990s, with economic stagnation and elevated debt levels.

Australia has certainly enjoyed the “pull-up effect” from China, particularly with the iron-ore price jumping from around U.S.$20/tonne in 2000 to an average closer to U.S.$120/tonne over the 17 years from 2007. With strong volume increases, the value of Australia’s iron ore exports has jumped 20-fold to around A$12 billion per month, accounting for approximately 35 per cent of Australia’s exports. 

For context, China takes 85 per cent of Australia’s iron ore exports, whilst Australia accounts for 65 per cent of China’s iron ore imports. China’s steel industry depends on its own domestic iron ore mines for 20 per cent of its requirement, however, these are high-cost operations and need high iron ore prices to keep them in business. To reduce its dependence on Australia’s iron ore, China has increased its use of scrap metal and invested large sums of money in Africa, including the Simandou mine in Guinea, which is forecast to export 60 million tonnes of iron ore from 2028.

The Chinese housing market has historically been the source of 40 per cent of China’s steel usage. However, the recent high iron ore prices are attributable to the growth in China’s industrial and infrastructure activity, which has offset the weakness in residential construction.

Whilst this has continued to deliver supernormal profits for Australia’s major iron ore producers (and has greatly assisted the federal budget), watch out for any sustainable downturn in the iron ore price, particularly if the deflationary pressures in China continue into the medium term.

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Deterra Royalties half-yearly result: stable performance and growth Initiatives

Deterra Royalties (ASX:DRR) was established through a strategic demerger from Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX:ILU) in 2020. At the core of Deterra Royalties portfolio…

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Deterra Royalties (ASX:DRR) was established through a strategic demerger from Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX:ILU) in 2020. At the core of Deterra Royalties portfolio lies long-life, Mining Area C (MAC), a premier iron ore mining operation in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, operationally managed by BHP. This key asset is underpinned by a royalty agreement that ensures Deterra Royalties receives quarterly payments equivalent to 1.232 per cent of the revenue generated, alongside substantial one-off payments of A$1 million for each dry metric tonne increase in annual production capacity. 

South flank, a critical component of the MAC, exemplifies BHP’s latest advancement in iron ore mining, marking its inaugural production in May 2021. In financial year 2023, MAC annual iron ore production amounted to 126 million wet metric tonnes, up 14 per cent on the prior year. The company has reiterated that capacity payments have been set at 118 million tonnes last year and are expected to be updated to current production of 126 million tonnes in June 2024, with potential upside to 145 million tonnes shortly after that. Thus, there is potential upside to dividends of $8 million in capacity payments by June 2024. Meanwhile, revenue amounted to $215.2 million plus a $13 million capacity payment from south flank expansion. Net profit after tax came in at $152.5 million. 

The company distributes 100 per cent of its profits as dividends. 

In a global landscape marked by burgeoning uncertainty and China’s post-COVID-19 economic malaise, Deterra Royalties emerges as providing iron exposure with greater stability. Deterra Royalties offers investors exposure to the iron ore market with distinctly reduced volatility compared to traditional mining entities. 

With that background established, the company released its half-yearly results for FY24, reporting figures that were largely in line with both internal expectations and market consensus. The company continues to explore avenues for portfolio expansion, particularly in bulk, base, and battery commodity royalties, although no deals have been finalised. With substantial undrawn debt facilities of $500 million and recent declines in junior mining company stocks, Deterra Royalties may be moving closer to securing new deals to create new royalties or purchase existing royalties. 

Deterra Royalties reported a net profit after tax (NPAT) of $78.7 million for the first half of FY24, matching internal projections and closely aligning with market estimates, albeit slightly below consensus by three per cent. The declared dividend of $14.89 conditions precedent, representing 100 per cent of NPAT in accordance with Deterra Royalties dividend policy, also fell within anticipated ranges but slightly missed consensus. Revenue for the period stood at A$119 million, consistent with the pre-reported royalty revenue update. 

Operating costs dipped by two per cent from the previous half-year to A$4.3 million but were up by four per cent year-on-year. Notably, business development costs surged to A$1.3 million, marking a 50 per cent increase from the previous period and a 140 per cent rise from the same period last year. This uptick reflects Deterra Royalties intensified efforts to evaluate growth opportunities, as managing director Julian Andrews highlighted. 

Deterra Royalties remains steadfast in its pursuit of growth opportunities, maintaining a flexible approach in both the size and type of investments/royalties sought. The company’s focus spans non-precious metals, including bulk, base, and battery metals, primarily targeting developed mining jurisdictions across Australia, North America, South America, and Europe. Deterra Royalties continues to prioritise royalties for production or near-production companies. 

A company that pays 100 per cent of its earnings as a dividend is relatively easy to value with a discounted cash flow (DCF). Adopting a required return of 6-7 per cent of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), Deterra Royalties valuation falls in a range between A$4.70 and $5.10 per share. 

In summary, Deterra Royalties’ half-yearly results provided the stable and somewhat predictable operational performance our portfolio managers value, whilst also providing iron ore exposure. 

The Montgomery Fund and the Montgomery [Private] Fund owns shares in Dettera Royalties. This blog was prepared 19 February 2024 with the information we have today, and our view may change. It does not constitute formal advice or professional investment advice. If you wish to trade Deterra Royalties, you should seek financial advice. 

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