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‘Uptober’ closes at record high in best month of 2021 — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

October 2021, with 40% gains, becomes the best for Bitcoin price action since December 2020, even beating the Q1 run.
Bitcoin (BTC) sees a volatile start to a new week and a new month after its first-ever monthly close above $60,000…

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October 2021, with 40% gains, becomes the best for Bitcoin price action since December 2020, even beating the Q1 run.

Bitcoin (BTC) sees a volatile start to a new week and a new month after its first-ever monthly close above $60,000 — what’s next?

After a highly anticipated end to “Uptober,” bulls are looking to November to provide the next phase of what they hope — and sometimes promise — will be a BTC price surge like no other.

The timing varies, and so do the predictions. In store for BTC/USD this month could be a monthly close of nearly $100,000 — but also a dip to near $50,000.

With everything to play for and solid buyer support in the upper $50,000s holding, Cointelegraph takes a look at what could help shape Bitcoin price action in the coming week.

October 2021 becomes best month since 2020

Regardless of what comes next, market participants are in a celebratory mood this week as Bitcoin sees the highest monthly close in its history.

Not only $60,000 but $61,000 has now become the target to beat for November.

Bitcoin is anything but “up only” on short timeframes, however, and Sunday’s close was met with noticeable downside volatility post factum — a trip to $59,500 — before another surprise took it above $62,000 hours later.

Perhaps slightly nervous are fans of PlanB’s “worst-case scenario” price predictions, these calling for at least $63,000 for the end of October.

While still more or less on track, for the series to continue its historical accuracy, $98,000 needs to be on the table by the end of this month.

For PlanB himself, however, the results have been more than satisfactory.

“Yes, Bitcoin might not close above $63K this month,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, meanwhile, added about the situation.

“However, @100trillionUSD his hitrate on the stock-to-flow model is way better than your trading performance, so I wouldn’t really roast him at all. Bitcoin at $61K is just as fine and close enough.”

After a correction from overnight lows, BTC/USD is trading at around $62,000. October, then, was its best month since December 2020, with returns just shy of 40%.

BTC/USD 1-month candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Difficulty lines up eighth straight increase

Those looking for something that truly is in “up only” mode need look no further than Bitcoin network fundamentals.

This week, difficulty will put in its eighth consecutive positive adjustment — something which has not happened since 2018.

Reflective of the increasingly competitive mining arena, the mining difficulty has now all but made up for the losses it necessarily inflicted after China forced miners to down tools in May.

Difficulty will increase to 21.89 trillion this week, just over 3 trillion below all-time highs.

The hash rate — the measure of processing power dedicated to mining — tells a similar story.

Despite being impossible to “measure” in definitive terms, the hash rate is still trending toward new all-time highs, estimates show.

Raw data trends up and down, and different estimates often end up with considerably different readings. The weekly average hash rate, however, now stands at around 159 exahashes per second (EH/s) — closer than ever to the 180 EH/s-record from April.

Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate chart. Source: Blockchain.com

Hodlers hodl on

September provided a golden “buy the dip” opportunity for Bitcoin buyers, and October was likewise not without its brief retracements.

Did you buy the dip? If you did, you added to the increasingly strong cohort of long-term hodlers whose conviction has only increased in October.

As noted in research from major exchange Kraken last week, the price gains and run to $67,100 all-time highs have failed to tempt hodlers to sell BTC.

“Notably, while long-term holders were unfazed by the retracement last month and used it as an opportunity to continue accumulating, this trend has not changed despite a significant rebound in price to new all-time highs near $67,000,” researchers concluded.

“In other words, the supply shock bought by long-term holders last month has only grown stronger this month.”

It is these entities, rather than short-term speculators, who are driving price performance in Q4 this year, they add.

This chimes with a previous analysis, notably by analyst Willy Woo, showing that the so-called “hodlers of last resort” or “Rick Astley” investors remain committed to their investment. Among the long-term holders, since 2020, are miners themselves.

“Since 2020 miners have been HODLers (and buyers) of BTC, this is a sea change in behaviour,” Woo noted this weekend.

“Miners have not been in sustained accumulation behaviour since the 2009–2014 era.”
Bitcoin miner supply 1-hop chart. Source: Kraken

Exchange balances lowest since October 2018

On the topic of a supply shock, the picture from exchanges is grim — from the perspective of a Bitcoin bear.

According to fresh data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, exchange BTC reserves are now at their lowest in three years.

At that time, in late 2018, Bitcoin was heading into the pit of its previous bear market, which bottomed out in December at $3,100.

Since then, price action has changed by an order of magnitude, but balances are still dwindling — all pointing to the scale of the potential shock should demand increase heavily from here.

Exchanges now control 2.47 million BTC. While at its peak in April 2020, over 3.1 million BTC stood on their orderbooks.

Bitcoin exchange balance chart. Source: Glassnode/Twitter

Balance changes can vary considerably among exchanges. Over the past 24 hours, for example, Coinbase Pro led the decrease, down almost 20,000 BTC, while some other players saw slight increases in their balance.

Markets expect Fed tapering announcement

The coming week could produce some familiar trends on traditional markets — and their traditional knock-on impact on crypto markets.

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ETH, BNB, MATIC, FTM

These could come thanks to fresh comments from the United States Federal Reserve on coronavirus management Tuesday and Wednesday as markets expect further cues on asset-buying tapering.

This comes as inflation ramps up worldwide, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously admitted that the accompanying narrative — supply chain crisis — will likely persist “well into next year.”

“I think the Fed has pretty well determined to start the taper pretty quickly. We expect them to announce it next week and then start it soon thereafter, so that’s pretty well carved in stone,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, told Yahoo Finance last week.

“I think the big debate now is how quickly the Fed moves toward actually raising rates. The expectation in the market has really shifted to expecting as many as two rate hikes in 2022 and 2023... that’s a pretty aggressive pace of tightening.”

Such conditions serve to increase Bitcoin’s attractiveness as an inherently deflationary asset class with a mathematically verifiable supply cap.

Institutional inflows into extant Bitcoin investment products, along with the newly launched futures exchange-traded funds (ETF), highlight growing demand.

Purpose Bitcoin ETF assets under management vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Bybt

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Another major retailer cracks down on self-checkout at its stores

The value retailer is discouraging theft at its self-checkout counters by introducing more associate-assisted checkout transactions in its stores.

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Huge retail chains like Walmart  (WMT) , Target  (TGT) , CVS  (CVS) and others have faced a high amount of retail theft, or what they call inventory shrink, since 2020 and have been implementing measures to eliminate those costly losses.

Among the most common measures used by Walmart, Target and some others has been locking up popular items behind glass cases to prevent shoplifting. Customers shopping at these stores have encountered a lot of their favorite products, such as cosmetics, shampoo, over-the-counter drugs and even laundry detergent locked up in those cases.

Related: Target limits self-checkout, makes a change customers will love

Shoppers need to either push a button near the product to alert a worker to unlock the case or, in some situations, run around the store looking for a worker with the proper key to open the case. It's a very inconvenient problem for shoppers, and not all stores are consistent with their lockup policies.

For example, one Walmart store might lock up some of their instant coffee products, while another cross-town Walmart location, or even a Target competitor, doesn't lock up any coffee.

Retail stores have also implemented new self-checkout rules to discourage inventory shrink, but again, stores are inconsistent with their rules. Walmart stores have a 20 items or less rule for their self-checkout lanes to try to steer shoppers with more items to checkout clerks that might help reduce the occurrence of theft. But neither customers, nor workers seem to be observing that rule. Target on March 17 implemented a new 10 items or fewer rule in its self-checkout lanes, but we'll see if anyone enforces it.

These self-checkout requirements are also supposed to speed up the checkout process, but that only works if all the self-check registers are working and an adequate amount of checkout clerks are working registers as well.

The next step for retailers in addressing inventory shrink at self-checkout would be to eliminate self-check altogether.

Shopping in a Five Below store.

Pat Greenhouse/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Five Below cuts back on self-checkout lanes 

After finishing the fourth quarter of 2023 with a "higher-than-planned shrink," or higher level of theft than expected in its stores, value retailer Five Below  (FIVE)  has implemented associate-assisted checkout in all of its stores for 2024, CEO Joel Anderson said on the company's earnings call on March 20.

"In addition, in our high-shrink stores, the primary option for checkout is more of the traditional, over-the-counter associate checkout," Anderson said. "We expect to have 75% of our transactions chain-wide assisted by an associate with a goal of 100% in our highest shrink, highest-risk stores to be fully transacted by an associate."

The retailer also checks receipts and adds guards

"Additionally, in those stores, we’re implementing further mitigation efforts, including receipt checking, additional store payroll and guards. We intend to measure progress as soon as Q2 when we perform a limited number of store counts," Anderson said.

Five Below tested several inventory shrink mitigation initiatives late in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter of 2023, which included product-related tests, front-end initiatives and guard programs, Anderson said in the earnings call. He said the most significant change the Philadelphia-based company made across most of the chain was to limit the number of self-checkout registers that were open, while positioning an associate upfront to further assist customers.

Anderson said he is confident the company's measures will help it over time, but the company has not included any financial impact for shrink reduction in its 2024 guidance. The company, however will aggressively pursue returning to pre-pandemic levels of shrink or offsetting the impact over the next few years, he said.

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CCP-Linked Virologist Fired After Transferring Ebola From Winnipeg To Wuhan Resurfaces In China – And Is Collaborating With Military Scientists

CCP-Linked Virologist Fired After Transferring Ebola From Winnipeg To Wuhan Resurfaces In China – And Is Collaborating With Military Scientists

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CCP-Linked Virologist Fired After Transferring Ebola From Winnipeg To Wuhan Resurfaces In China - And Is Collaborating With Military Scientists

A virologist who had a "clandestine relationship" with Chinese agents and was subsequently fired by the Trudeau government has popped back up in China - where she's conducting research with Chinese military scientists and other virology researchers, including at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where she's allegedly studying antibodies for coronavirus, as well as the deadly Ebola and Niaph viruses, the Globe and Mail reports.

Xiangguo Qiu and her husband Keding Cheng were fired from the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg, Canada and stripped of their security clearances in July of 2019.

Declassified documents tabled in the House of Commons on Feb. 28 show the couple had provided confidential scientific information to China and posed a credible security threat to the country, according to the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.

The Globe found that Dr. Qiu’s name appears on four Chinese patent filings since 2020, two with the Wuhan Institute of Virology whose work on bat coronaviruses has placed it at the centre of concerns that it played a role in the spread of COVID-19 – and two with the University of Science and Technology of China, or USTC. The patents relate to antibodies against Nipah virus and work related to nanobodies, including against coronaviruses. -Globe and Mail

Canadian authorities began questioning the pair's loyalty, as well as the potential for coercion or exploitation by a foreign entity, according to more than 600 pages of documents reported by The Counter Signal.

Highlights (via CTVNews.ca):

  • Qiu and Cheng were escorted out of Winnipeg's National Microbiology Laboratory in July 2019 and subsequently fired in January 2021.
  • The pair transferred deadly Ebola and Henipah viruses to China's Wuhan Institute of Virology in March 2019.
  • The Canadian Security Intelligence Service assessed that Qiu repeatedly lied about the extent of her work with institutions of the Chinese government and refused to admit involvement in various Chinese programs, even when evidence was presented to her.
  • [D]espite being given every opportunity in her interviews to describe her association with Chinese entities, "Ms. Qiu continued to make blanket denials, feign ignorance or tell outright lies."
  • A November 2020 Public Health Agency of Canada report on Qiu says investigators "weighed the adverse information and are in agreement with the CSIS assessment."
  • A Public Health Agency report on Cheng's activities says he allowed restricted visitors to work in laboratories unescorted and on at least two occasions did not prevent the unauthorized removal of laboratory materials.
  • Cheng was not forthcoming about his activities and collaborations with people from government agencies "of another country, namely members of the People's Republic of China."

Following their firings, Qiu returned to China despite it being under a pandemic travel lockdown until January, 2023.

"It’s very likely that she received quite preferential treatment in China on the basis that she’s proven herself. She’s done a very good job for the government of China," said Brendan Walker-Munro, senior research fellow at Australia’s University of Queensland Law School. "She’s promoted their interests abroad. She’s returned information that is credibly useful to China and to its ongoing research."

More via the Globe and Mail;

Documents reviewed by The Globe show that Dr. Qiu is most closely aligned with the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) in Hefei. In March, 2023, a document posted by a Chinese pharmaceutical company listed Dr. Qiu as second amongst “major completion personnel” on a project awarded by the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association for study related to an anti-Ebola virus therapeutic antibody. Most of the other completion personnel were associated with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.

USTC was founded by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and initially established to build up Chinese scientific expertise useful to the military, which at the time was pursuing technology to build satellites, intercontinental ballistic missiles and atomic bombs. The university has continued to maintain close military ties.

The document says Dr. Qiu works for USTC. Jin Tengchuan, the principal investigator at the Laboratory of Structural Immunology at USTC, lists her as a co-inventor on a patent. Mr. Jin did not respond to requests for comment.

A person who answered the phone at USTC told The Globe, “I don’t have any information about this teacher.”

In 2012, USTC signed a strategic co-operation agreement with the Army Engineering University of the People’s Liberation Army, designed to strengthen research on cutting-edge technology useful for communications, weaponry and other national-defence priorities.

Dr. Qiu is also listed as a 2019 doctoral supervisor for students studying virology at Hebei Medical University.

Well, that makes me wonder what circumstances she was under when she emigrated to Canada. Why did she come?” asked Earl Brown, a professor emeritus of biochemistry, microbiology and immunology at the University of Ottawa’s faculty of medicine who has worked extensively in China in the past. “People leave for more freedom from China, or to make more money. But China keeps tabs on most people so I am not sure if she came over to infiltrate or whether she came and the infiltration happened later through contact with China.”

It may be impossible to answer that question. Three former colleagues at the National Microbiolgy Lab have indicated that Dr. Qiu and her husband were diligent and pleasant to deal with, but largely kept to themselves outside of work. They say Dr. Qiu was a brilliant scientist with a strong work ethic, although her English was weak. The Globe is not identifying the three who did not want to be named.

Dr. Qiu is a medical doctor from Tianjin, China, who came to Canada for graduate studies in 1996. She started at the University of Manitoba, but began working at the national lab as a research scientist in 2006, working her way up to become head of the vaccine development and antiviral therapies section in the National Microbiology Laboratory’s special pathogens program.

She was also part of the team that helped develop ZMapp, a treatment for the deadly Ebola virus, which killed more than 11,000 people in West Africa between 2014 and 2016.

“My sense is this was part of a larger strategy by China to get access to our innovation system,” said Filippa Lentzos, an associate professor of science and international security at King’s College London. “It was a way for them to to find out what was going on in Canada’s premier lab.”

Initially trained as a medical doctor, Dr. Qiu graduated in 1985 from Hebei University in the coastal city of Tianjin, which lies southeast of Beijing. Dr. Qiu went on to obtain her master of science degree in immunology at Tianjin Medical University in 1990.

Her career at Canada’s top infectious disease lab in Winnipeg began in 2003, only four years after Ottawa opened this biosafety level 4 facility at the Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health.

Over time, she built up a reputation for academic collaboration, particularly with China. It was welcomed by management who felt her work was helping build a name internationally for the National Microbiology Lab.

By the time Canadian officials intervened in 2018 and began investigating, documents show, Dr. Qiu was running 44 separate projects at the Winnipeg lab, an uncommonly large workload.

Her work with former colleague and microbiologist Gary Kobinger vaulted Dr. Qiu into the international spotlight. The pair developed a treatment for Ebola, one that in its first human application led to the full recovery of 27 patients with the infection during a 2014 outbreak in Liberia.

Mr. Kobinger’s career continued to soar and he is now director of the Galveston National Laboratory, a renowned biosafety level 4 facility in Texas. In 2022, he told The Globe that it was “heartbreaking” to see what had happened to his colleague. He declined to speak for this article.

“She had lost a lot of weight with all the stress. She was so convinced that this was all a misunderstanding … and she would go back to her job,” he said in 2022. “ Her career has been destroyed with all this. She was one of the top female Canadian scientists of virology and Canada has lost that.”

Over a period of 13 months, though, the Chinese-Canadian microbiologist and her biologist husband’s lives were turned upside down.

She went from being feted at Ottawa’s Rideau Hall with a Governor-General’s Award in May, 2018, to being locked out of the Winnipeg lab in July, 2019 – the high-security facility where she had made her name as a scientist in Canada. By January, 2021, she and Mr. Cheng were fired.

Last month, after being pressed into explaining what happened, the Canadian government finally disclosed the reasons for this extraordinary dismissal: CSIS found the pair had lied about and hid their co-operation with China from Ottawa.

A big question remains following their departure: Why would Dr. Qiu risk her career, including the stature associated with developing an Ebola treatment, for China?

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/21/2024 - 18:40

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You can now enter this country without a passport

Singapore has been on a larger push to speed up the flow of tourists with digital immigration clearance.

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In the fall of 2023, the city-state of Singapore announced that it was working on end-to-end biometrics that would allow travelers passing through its Changi Airport to check into flights, drop off bags and even leave and exit the country without a passport.

The latter is the most technologically advanced step of them all because not all countries issue passports with the same biometrics while immigration laws leave fewer room for mistakes about who enters the country.

Related: A country just went visa-free for visitors with any passport

That said, Singapore is one step closer to instituting passport-free travel by testing it at its land border with Malaysia. The two countries have two border checkpoints, Woodlands and Tuas, and as of March 20 those entering in Singapore by car are able to show a QR code that they generate through the government’s MyICA app instead of the passport.

A photograph captures Singapore's Tuas land border with Malaysia.

Here is who is now able to enter Singapore passport-free

The latter will be available to citizens of Singapore, permanent residents and tourists who have already entered the country once with their current passport. The government app pulls data from one's passport and shows the border officer the conditions of one's entry clearance already recorded in the system.

More Travel:

While not truly passport-free since tourists still need to link a valid passport to an online system, the move is the first step in Singapore's larger push to get rid of physical passports.

"The QR code initiative allows travellers to enjoy a faster and more convenient experience, with estimated time savings of around 20 seconds for cars with four travellers, to approximately one minute for cars with 10 travellers," Singapore's Immigration and Checkpoints Authority wrote in a press release announcing the new feature. "Overall waiting time can be reduced by more than 30% if most car travellers use QR code for clearance."

More countries are looking at passport-free travel but it will take years to implement

The land crossings between Singapore and Malaysia can get very busy — government numbers show that a new post-pandemic record of 495,000 people crossed Woodlands and Tuas on the weekend of March 8 (the day before Singapore's holiday weekend.)

Even once Singapore implements fully digital clearance at all of its crossings, the change will in no way affect immigration rules since it's only a way of transferring the status afforded by one's nationality into a digital system (those who need a visa to enter Singapore will still need to apply for one at a consulate before the trip.) More countries are in the process of moving toward similar systems but due to the varying availability of necessary technology and the types of passports issued by different countries, the prospect of agent-free crossings is still many years away.

In the U.S., Chicago's O'Hare International Airport was chosen to take part in a pilot program in which low-risk travelers with TSA PreCheck can check into their flight and pass security on domestic flights without showing ID. The UK has also been testing similar digital crossings for British and EU citizens but no similar push for international travelers is currently being planned in the U.S.

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