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Updated Gold Forecasts: 66 Analysts Now See $3,000; $10,000; $20,000 – Even $50,000 (+17K Views)

More and more analysts are projecting that gold will be going at least as high as $3,000/ozt over the next few years. One analyst even claims that gold will spike at $87,500/ozt.! Below is a revised list of their names and stated rationale for each of…

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More and more analysts are projecting that gold will be going at least as high as $3,000/ozt over the next few years. One even claims that gold will spike up to $87,500/ozt.! Below is a revised list of their names and stated rationale for each of their forecasts.

By Lorimer Wilson, editor of munKNEE.com – Your Key To Making Money!

$50,000+ Gold

1. Jim Sinclair: $50,000 in 2025 and to $87,500 by 2032

  • In a recent YouTube video Sinclair said that, with so many U.S. Dollars being printed to uphold the economy as a result of COVID-19, that Gold will rise to $50,000 (i.e. go “straight up” in Sinclair’s words) at the end of the 45-year gold cycle which is coming up in 2025 and rise up to $87,500/ozt. by the end of 2032. Source

$25,000 Gold

1. Erik Lytikainen: $25,000 by 2030

  • “We will not be surprised to see $25,000 per ounce of gold by the year 2030.  It will likely be a volatile ride higher, with large drawdowns along the way.” Source

$20,000 Gold

1. Goldrunner: $20,000 between mid-2028 and end of 2029

  • “As a result of the recent massive paper money printing, our chart work suggests that gold could possibly spike up to as high as $20,000 per troy ounce – or even a bit higher – some time between mid-2028 and the end of 2029.” Source

2. Pierre Lassonde: $20,000 in 2 – 5 years

  • “Gold prices should skyrocket to much higher levels, even $20,000 in two to five years’ time, as gold reaches a price level close to the level of the Dow Jones Industrial Index.” Source

3. Egon Von Greyerz: $20,000

  • “I believe a gold price of $20,000 is very probable, even without high inflation.” Source

4. Leigh Goehring: $10,000-$15,000 by 2027-28

  • “Our target is between $10,000-$15,000. That will happen at the end part of this coming decade — 2027-28.” Source

$10,000 Gold

1. James Rickards: $10,000

  • “$10,000 per troy ounce is not pie in the sky. It’s not a number I pulled out of a hat to get headlines. It’s the actual mathematical implied non deflationary price of gold.” Source

2. Daniel Oliver: $10,000

  • “The money to push gold over $10,000 per troy ounce has already been printed and now they are going to print more…No doubt strong fiscal and monetary intervention may extend its life for a time, but then the ultimate price objective for gold will then be markedly higher.” Source

3. Max Keiser: $10,000

  • To deal with the disaster of “trash fiat money” choking the global economy, a new gold standard will need to be introduced “and to make it work, we will see gold’s price top $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source

4. Adam O’Dell: $10,000

  • “The price is guaranteed to hit near $10,000.” Source

5. AG Thorson: $7,000 – $10,000

  •  “By the end of this decade, we expect gold to reach $7,500 – $10,000.” Source

6. Peter Schiff: $5,000 to $10,000

  • Schiff projects a price of between $5,000 and $10,000 per troy ounce, and says the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is now valued at about 12 times the price of gold, will trade at just 7.5 times instead. Eventually, he sees gold and the Dow trading at even money. Source

7. Don Durrett: $3,000 to $10,000

  • “My price target for gold is somewhere between $3,000 and $10,000.” Source

8. David Smith: $10,000

  • “Gold could reach US$10,000 per ounce by the end of the bull market.” Source

9. Bob Kirtley: $10,000

  • “My target has been $10,000/oz since June 2006, so at that point, an exit strategy will be executed, hopefully with some handsome profits.” Source:

$7,000 -$9,000 Gold

1. Florian Grummes$8,000 to $9,000 in 5 to 10 years

  • “We could end up having gold at $8,000 to $9,000 gold in five to 10 years.” Source

2. Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark Valek: $4,800 to $8,900 by 2030

  • “The proprietary valuation model shows a gold price of USD 4,800 at the end of this decade, even with conservative calibration. Should money supply growth develop in a similar inflationary manner to that of the 1970s, a gold price of USD 8,900 is conceivable by 2030.” Source

3. Graham Summers: $8,000

  • “Gold first rallied about 630% from 2003-2011. It then corrected about 43% before bottoming in 2015 at $1,060. If it follows a similar second leg up this time around, it’s going to ~$8,000 per ounce before it peaks.” Source

4. Hubert Moolman: $7,758

  • “In my opinion, it is virtually guaranteed that gold will again catch up with the Dow’s performance since 1913, and significantly surpass it just like in the 70s. This means we will likely see gold reach $7 758 (in the near future) and eventually go on to reach multiples of that high.” Source

5. Gov Capital: $5,837 by 2023; $7,220 by 2024; $8,531 by 2025

  • “5 year gold forecast: $8530.74” Source

6. Jason Hamlin: $4,000 to $8,000 by 2025

  • “We fully expect to see the gold price close out the year 2025 somewhere between $4,000 and $8,000 per troy ounce.” Source

7. Jeff Clark: $3,000 to $8,000 in 5 years

  • “Potential 5-year high: $3,000 to $8,000.” Source

8. Charlie Morris: $7,166

  • “A bullish target of $7,166 is both logical and plausible.” Source

9. Tom Fitzpatrick: $4,000 to $8,000

  • “We see no reason why this bull market cannot be as strong as the prior two averaging a multiple of eight times over an average of 7 years. Translating that to the $1,046 low in 2015 would come up with a number north of $8,000 possibly in as little as the next 2-3 years. Even if that sounds aggressive, a move similar to what we saw in 2009-2011 would suggest close to $4,000.”

10. Mike McGlone: $7,000 by 2025

“From 2001-2011, gold advanced about 7.5 times, which if repeated would bring it to around $7,000 in 2025.” Source

$4,000 – $5,000 Gold

1. Rob McEwen: $5,000

  • The founder of Goldcorp Inc., McEwen predicts that gold will soar almost fourfold to $5,000 a troy ounce, bolstered by a weaker dollar and waning demand for trendy assets like pot stocks. Source

2. Victor Dergunov: $5,000 in 3-5 years

  • “Gold at $5,000 in 3-5 years seems plausible, and it is likely to continue to go higher after that.” Source

3. Dan Popescu: $5,000 in 5 years

  •  “Gold price could break above $5,000 in the next 5 years.” Source

4. David Morgan: $5,000 before the end of the decade

  •  “Gold could hit $5,000 a troy ounce this decade, especially as the greenback loses purchasing power.” Source

5. Moe Zulfiqar: $5,000 by 2030

  • ” It wouldn’t be shocking to see gold at $5,000 per troy ounce, or more, by 2030. ” Source

6. Brian Whitfield: $5,000 by 2030

  • “I feel I am safe, and being conservative, in saying that gold should be trading between $3000 – $5000 per troy ounce in ten years. Should the US dollar fail and/or the US dollar loses the coveted global reserve currency status and/or even the loss of the petrodollar, gold could hit these level far sooner.” Source

7. Chris Wood: $5,386

  • “The gold price of US$850 at the peak of the last secular bull market in gold in January 1980 was then equivalent to 9.9% of US disposable income per capita. The gold price is now just 3.6% of US disposable income per capita. Therefore, to reach 9.9% of US disposable income per capita means gold should rise to US$5,386. Source

8. Ole Hansen: $4,000

  • “$4,000 probably is a little bit far-fetched as the world looks right now, but if you look years into the future, then that is possible because the repercussions of what we’re going through right now with the pandemic and the aftermath is going to be something that’s going to be felt for at least this generation and potentially beyond.”  Source

9. Geraldo Del Real: $3,000 to $5,000

  • “I actually think US$3,000 to US$5,000 is very reasonable.” Source

10. Thomas Kaplan: $3,000 to $5,000 by 2030

  • “Gold prices could rally as high as $3,000 to $5,000 within a decade.” Source

11. David Rosenberg: $3,000 to $5,000

  • “A $3,000 to $5,000 target.is fundamentally justified based on the facts we have today.” Source

12. Gary Christenson: $3,000 to $5,000 by 2022

  • “A reasonable “status quo” valuation for gold in 2021 is around $3,000.  Prices will fall below and occasionally spike much higher than the valuation so a gold price of $5,000 in 2020 – 2022 is plausible.” Source

13. Shaun Djie: $3,000 to $4,000 within 10 years

  • “In the next 10 years, gold will continue to be volatile. Gold could trade anywhere between the levels of $3,000 or $4,000 in the next ten years given how much cash will be potentially put into the economy.” Source

14. Frank Holmes$4,000 in 3 years

  • “The yellow metal is set to rally in the same fashion as in the aftermath of the last recession and, if cycles are exactly the same, gold could go to $4,000”. Source

15. Diego Parrilla: $3,000 to $5,000 in the next 3 to 5 years

  • Unprecedented monetary stimulus is fueling asset bubbles and corporate debt addiction — rendering interest-rate hikes impossible without an economic crash. In the ensuing market mania gold could rise to $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce in the next three to five years. Source

16. Massimiliano Bondurri: $3,000 to $5,000 in 3 to 5 years

  • Massimiliano Bondurri, a capital founder and a CEО of SGMC, believes an ounce of gold will rise in price to $3,000 -$5,000 in the next 3-5 years. Source

17. Eric Fry: $3,000 to $4,000

  • ‘When this ballgame ends, gold with be trading for at least $3,000 an ounce, and an extra-inning affair would not surprise me — lifting the gold price past $4,000.” Source

18. Michael Cuggino: $4,000

  • Cuggino, CEO of the Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds, a $1.9 billion mutual fund that is conservatively run and rated four stars by Morningstar, says it would “not be an unreasonable move” for gold to breach $4,000. Source

19. Kirk Spano: $3,000 by mid-decade; $5,000 possible

  1. “$3,000 mid-decade [with] upside potential to $5,000 per ounce.” Source

$3,000 – $3,500 Gold

1. Chris Vermuellen$3,500

  •  “Expect to see an ultimate peak price in gold well above $3,500.” Source

2. Victor Dergunov: $3,500 by end of 2022

  • “When we consider that the monetary base is likely to surge to around $8 trillion by year-end, we can conclude that this will give us around a 10,000% increase from the roughly $80 billion in monetary base the U.S. had in the early 1970s. Likewise, we can apply a similar percentage to the $35 gold price around the same period. A 10,000% increase from the $35 gold price would put gold prices at around $3,500 per ounce, roughly 100% higher than where the price of gold is today, [and] I think it is quite likely that we will see gold prices appreciate to $3,500 by the end of 2022.” Source

3. Charles Gibson$3,281

  • “Since 1967, the price of gold has shown an extremely strong (0.909) correlation with the total US monetary base. The more dollars that either are, or could be, in circulation, the higher the expected gold price. With the total US monetary base now closing in on US$5.5tn the gold price could very reasonably be expected to rise to as high as US$3,281/ozt.” Source

4. Bank of America: $3,000 by end of 2021

  • BoA raised its 18-month price target for gold to $3,000 a troy ounce citing the prospects of endless monetary expansion from central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to limit the economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic. Source

5. WingCapital Investments: $3,000

  • “Using the post-2008 bull market as a guideline during which gold more than doubled within the ensuing 3 years, $3,000 would be a reasonable long-term target in our opinion.” Source

6. Tony Hayes: $3,000 by end of 2020

  • “It seems certain that US$ 2,000 per ounce will soon be exceeded and probably be above US$ 3,000 per troy ounce by year-end.” Source

7. Barry Dawes: $3,000 within 2 to 3 years

  • “I expect to see US$3,000/ozt. in gold over the next 30 months.” Source

8. Brian Lundin: $3,000 by 2024

  •  “I think we’ll set a new record in real terms, exceeding $3,000, at some point over the next four years or so.” Source

9. Byron King: $3,000

  • “I think Bank of America is on track. I don’t think there’s any question gold will see $3,000. As with all things in life, it’s just a question of how long it will take.” Source 

10/11. Ben Morris and Drew McConnell: $3,000

  • “$3,000 per troy ounce isn’t a long shot.” Source

12. Alex Mashinsky: $3,000 by end of 2021

  • Mashinsky sees gold climbing to $3,000/ozt. by the end of next year but admits that even more gains are possible depending on how bad the currency debasement gets. Source

13. Robert Kiyosaki: $3,000 within 1 year

  • “I predict $3,000 gold in 1 year.” Source

14. Stewart Thomson: $3,000

  •  “Queen Gold is assured of launching above the key $2,000 price zone, ready to begin a rocket blast towards my medium-term $3,000 target!” Source

15. Leon Wilfan$3,000 in 2021

  • “If the economy contracts further and we enter a protracted recession, then gold could reach $3,000 in 2021.” Source

16. Mark O’Byrne: $3,000 in next 12 months

  • “Gold is quite likely to climb to $3,000 in the next 12 months.” Source

17. John Ing: Higher than $3,000/ozt.

  • “We expect gold to trade higher than $3,000 an ounce due to a lower greenback and solvency concerns.” Source

18. Joe Foster: $3,200 to $3,400

  • “We…believe this to be a deflationary cycle and both recent deflationary gold bull markets suggest that a price over $3,000 per ounce is reasonable. In fact, if one believes, as we do, that the current central bank stimulus to fight the impacts of the COVID-19 virus, along with elevated levels of systemic risks, are similar to those during the global financial crisis, then $3,400 may be the target for this bull market.” Source

19. RBC Global Markets: $3,060 by early 2021

  • “We [have] launched a new high scenario where gold crosses the $3,000 level assuming the current situation deteriorates materially.” Source

20. SomaBull: $3,000

  • “The money supply is quickly heading to levels that would support a $3,000 gold price well in excess of fair value by the time this bull market is exhausted.” Source

21/22. Yvo Timmermans and Paul Van den Noord: $1,900 to $3,000 over next 18 months

  • “We anticipate gold will fall within a bandwidth of $1,900 and $3,000 over the next 18 months.” Source

What do you think of the above price forecasts? Have your say in the “Comments” section below. Also, if I have missed other analyst forecasts (they must be within the last year) please mentioned them below and I will include them in a future article.

About Lorimer Wilson

Lorimer Wilson with Gold BarLorimer Wilson is an economic & financial commentator who has written numerous articles on economics, finance, precious metals, and the cannabis stock sector. He is the Managing Editor of munKNEE.com, a site that provides a selection of the internet’s best finance articles in an edited, reformatted and abridged format to ensure a fast and easy read.

 munKNEE.com has joined eResearch.com to provide you with individual company research articles and specific stock recommendations in addition to munKNEE’s more general informative articles on the economy, the markets, and gold, silver and cannabis investing.
Check out eResearch. If you like what you see then…

The post Updated Gold Forecasts: 66 Analysts Now See $3,000; $10,000; $20,000 – Even $50,000 (+17K Views) appeared first on munKNEE.com.

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Economics

Extra Crunch roundup: TC Mobility recaps, Nubank EC-1, farewell to browser cookies

What, exactly, are investors looking for?

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What, exactly, are investors looking for?

Early-stage founders, usually first-timers, often tie themselves in knots as they try to project the qualities they hope investors are seeking. In reality, few entrepreneurs have the acting skills required to convince someone that they’re patient, dedicated or hard working.

Johan Brenner, general partner at Creandum, was an early backer of Klarna, Spotify and several other European startups. Over the last two decades, he’s identified five key traits shared by people who create billion-dollar companies.


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“A true unicorn founder doesn’t need to have all of those capabilities on day one,” says Brenner, “but they should already be thinking big while executing small and demonstrating that they understand how to scale a company.”

Drawing from observations gleaned from working with founders like Spotify’s Daniel Ek, Sebastian Siemiatkowski from Klarna, and iZettle’s Jacob de Geer and Magnus Nilsson, Brenner explains where “VC FOMO” comes from and how it drives deal-making.

We’re running a series of posts that recap conversations from last week’s virtual TC Mobility conference, including an interview with Refraction AI’s Matthew Johnson, a look at how autonomous delivery startups are navigating the regulatory and competitive landscape, and much more. There are many more recaps to come; click here to find them all.

Thanks very much for reading Extra Crunch!

Walter Thompson
Senior Editor, TechCrunch
@yourprotagonist

How contrarian hires and a pitch deck started Nubank’s $30 billion fintech empire

Image Credits: Nigel Sussman

Founded in 2013 and based in São Paulo, Brazil, Nubank serves more than 34 million customers, making it Latin America’s largest neobank.

Reporter Marcella McCarthy spoke to CEO David Velez to learn about his efforts to connect with consumers and overcome entrenched opposition from established players who were friendly with regulators.

In the first of a series of stories for Nubank’s EC-1, she interviewed Velez about his early fundraising efforts. For a balanced perspective, she also spoke to early Nubank investors at Sequoia and Kaszek Ventures, Latin America’s largest venture fund, to find out why they funded the startup while it was still pre-product.

“There are people you come across in life that within the first hour of meeting with them, you know you want to work with them,” said Doug Leone, a global managing partner at Sequoia who’d recruited Velez after he graduated from grad school at Stanford.

Marcella also interviewed members of Nubank’s founding team to better understand why they decided to take a chance on a startup that faced such long odds of success.

“I left banking to make a fifth of my salary, and back then, about $5,000 in equity,” said Vitor Olivier, Nubank’s VP of operations and platforms.

“Financially, it didn’t really make sense, so I really had to believe that it was really going to work, and that it would be big.”

Despite flat growth, ride-hailing colossus Didi’s US IPO could reach $70B

Image Credits: Didi

In his last dispatch before a week’s vacation, Alex Wilhelm waded through the numbers in Didi’s SEC filing. The big takeaways?

“While Didi managed an impressive GTV recovery in China, its aggregate numbers are flatter, and recent quarterly trends are not incredibly attractive,” he writes.

However, “Didi is not as unprofitable as we might have anticipated. That’s a nice surprise. But the company’s regular business has never made money, and it’s losing more lately than historically, which is also pretty rough.”

What’s driving the rise of robotaxis in China with AutoX, Momenta and WeRide

AutoX, Momenta and WeRide took the stage at TC Sessions: Mobility 2021 to discuss the state of robotaxi startups in China and their relationships with local governments in the country.

They also talked about overseas expansion — a common trajectory for China’s top autonomous vehicle startups — and shed light on the challenges and opportunities for foreign AV companies eyeing the massive Chinese market.

The air taxi market prepares to take flight

Image Credits: Bryce Durbin

“As in any disruptive industry, the forecast may be cloudier than the rosy picture painted by passionate founders and investors,” Aria Alamalhodaei writes. “A quick peek at comments and posts on LinkedIn reveals squabbles among industry insiders and analysts about when this emerging technology will truly take off and which companies will come out ahead.”

But while some electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) companies have no revenue yet to speak of — and may not for the foreseeable future — valuations are skyrocketing.

“Electric air mobility is gaining elevation,” she writes. “But there’s going to be some turbulence ahead.”

The demise of browser cookies could create a Golden Age of digital marketing

Though some may say the doomsday clock is ticking toward catastrophe for digital marketing, Apple’s iOS 14.5 update, which does away with automatic opt-ins for data collection, and Google’s plan to phase out third-party cookies do not signal a death knell for digital advertisers.

“With a few changes to short-term strategy — and a longer-term plan that takes into account the fact that people are awakening to the value of their online data — advertisers can form a new type of relationship with consumers,” Permission.io CTO Hunter Jensen writes in a guest column. “It can be built upon trust and open exchange of value.”

If offered the right incentives, Jensen predicts, “consumers will happily consent to data collection because advertisers will be offering them something they value in return.”

How autonomous delivery startups are navigating policy, partnerships and post-pandemic operations

Nuro second gen R2 delivery vehicle

Image Credits: Nuro

We kicked off this year’s TC Sessions: Mobility with a talk featuring three leading players in the field of autonomous delivery. Gatik co-founder and chief engineer Apeksha Kumavat, Nuro head of operations Amy Jones Satrom, and Starship Technologies co-founder and CTO Ahti Heinla joined us to discuss their companies’ unique approaches to the category.

The trio discussed government regulation on autonomous driving, partnerships with big corporations like Walmart and Domino’s, and the ongoing impact the pandemic has had on interest in the space.

Waabi’s Raquel Urtasun explains why it was the right time to launch an AV technology startup

Image Credits: Waabi via Natalia Dola

Raquel Urtasun, the former chief scientist at Uber ATG, is the founder and CEO of Waabi, an autonomous vehicle startup that came out of stealth mode last week. The Toronto-based company, which will focus on trucking, raised an impressive $83.5 million in a Series A round led by Khosla Ventures.

Urtasun joined Mobility 2021 to talk about her new venture, the challenges facing the self-driving vehicle industry and how her approach to AI can be used to advance the commercialization of AVs.

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Spread & Containment

How to create effective, engaged workplace teams after the COVID-19 pandemic

Post-pandemic, the world of work will probably never be the same again. And that’s probably a good thing. We now have an opportunity to make it better.

For workplace teams returning to the office post-pandemic, it will still be important to protect the benefits of remote work: uninterrupted time for strategically important projects, and respect for personal preferences. (Pixabay)

Well into the pandemic’s second year, we are beginning to see light on the horizon. We’re not out of the woods here in Canada. As some areas of the country continue to struggle to contain the virus, others are optimistic due to lowering case counts thanks to restrictions and lockdown measures.

Ontario — the country’s largest province by population — is now in the first step of its reopening, and officials have said the majority of those who want to receive a vaccine could be fully immunized by the end of the summer.

The rolling lockdowns and public health restrictions of the pandemic response meant a massive shift to remote and virtual work for many workplaces. As we look towards and plan for the post-pandemic future, businesses and organizations need to thoughtfully consider what the future of work looks like for them.

They will need to reflect on their operations pre-pandemic, consider what they learned from the disruption of the crisis, and ask themselves: How can we build back better?

Structure shift

Recent decades have seen a shift in the structure of businesses and organizations, away from hierarchical models in favour of cross-functional and, at times, self-managing networks of teams. In fact, a 2016 survey found the majority of large corporations rely on interdisciplinary and cross-functional teams. In 2019, 31 per cent of respondents said that most or almost all work is performed in teams.

For many of these organizations, the pandemic saw these teams transition from in-person work to remote interactions via video-conferencing services like Zoom, Microsoft Teams and Skype.

Many appreciated the comfort and autonomy inherent in working from home, but the erosion of work-life balance and social interaction has caused challenges.

As we come out of the pandemic, workplace teams will need an environment that retains the experience of autonomy while also providing a sense of belonging. Employees should be free to decide where they want to work and when they want to work whenever possible. But we must also address the negative impact of isolation — loneliness, fatigue or even depression, all of which have been frequently reported during the pandemic.

Five women at a desk have a conversation.
Effective workplace teams will be critical to building back better. (Piqsels)

Research on workplace teams finds that autonomy can in fact co-exist with a sense of belonging and cohesion. For this to be achieved, organizations need to find a balance, and need to organize teams according to these structural considerations:

• Teams have a strong leader, or they can feature shared leadership.

• Teams have clearly defined task interdependencies and interfaces among team members, or team members can perform their work largely in isolation.

• Teams have the same goals and rewards for all members, or they can offer individualized goals and rewards.

• Teams communicate virtually, or they can communicate so face-to-face.

• Teams have a shared history and aspirations, or they operate for a limited time, after which they disband.

A strong leader, alongside clearly defined task interdependencies, focuses on the team as a whole, whereas virtual teamwork and individual rewards emphasize the individual team member.

Combining features of teamwork that promote autonomy with other features that foster cohesiveness and a sense of belonging is likely the best path forward.

Emphasize shared goals

As long as employees continue to operate in a virtual setting, it’s important for leaders to define shared goals and rewards. Teams must share a vision of the future that complements the larger degree of autonomy they’ve experienced through virtual teamwork.

Focusing on elements of teamwork that bring team members closer together should not be left to chance. As some organizations learned during the pandemic, scheduling social hours can replace the spontaneous conversations at the water cooler. A book club can replace the informal learning over a lunch chat. A fireside Zoom chat on company values and goals can replace an in-person town hall.

But post-pandemic, few organizations will maintain an all-virtual presence. Many will move towards a hybrid model. For those teams returning to the office, it will still be important to protect the benefits of remote work: uninterrupted time for strategically important projects, and respect for personal preferences.

The pandemic has also almost eliminated a troublesome feature of organizational life: presenteeism, or showing up to work when sick. We must not go backwards in this regard. Workers must protect themselves and their team members from the consequences of illness.

Post-pandemic, the world of work will probably never be the same again. And that’s probably a good thing. We now have an opportunity to make it better.

Matthias Spitzmuller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Economics

EU Bars 10 Megabanks From Recovery Bond Sale Over Previous Market Manipulation

EU Bars 10 Megabanks From Recovery Bond Sale Over Previous Market Manipulation

In an unexpected move, the European Union has decided to shut out some of the world’s biggest banks from sales of bonds for the EU’s COVID recovery fund, expected.

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EU Bars 10 Megabanks From Recovery Bond Sale Over Previous Market Manipulation

In an unexpected move, the European Union has decided to shut out some of the world's biggest banks from sales of bonds for the EU's COVID recovery fund, expected to be the largest supranational bond offering yet.

According to the FT, the EU excluded 10 banks - including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Barclays - from running bond sales as part of its €800 billion ($968.5 billion) recovery fund due to what the FT described as "historic breaches of antitrust rules". Specifically, the EU is seeking to punish the banks for their roles in the series of market-rigging scandals (which infamously started with rigging of the Libor before investigators moved on to currency and fixed income markets) that broke early in the last decade. The move is especially bold because many of the banks being shut out of the deal are some of the world's biggest players in international debt markets.

In other words, simply by shutting them out of this massive deal, the EU could shake up the league tables as the banks that win its business will undoubtedly be handsomely rewarded for their work. The borrowing spree - Brussels' biggest-ever - will begin Tuesday with the sale of a new 10-year eurobond to fund the NextGenerationEU pandemic program. 7 of the 10 banks excluded are among the biggest sellers' of European debt. Before they will be allowed to sell the bonds, the EU wants them to demonstrate that they have "taken remedial measures" to prevent this from happening again.

In other words, Brussels is serious about preventing banks from stuffing their pockets with public money.

Banks found to have breached EU competition rules “will not be invited to tender for individual syndicated transactions”, said a spokesman for the European Commission, which handles debt issuance on behalf of the EU. “The Commission implements a strict approach to ensuring that the entities with whom it works are fit to be a counterparty of the EU."

Banks found guilty of antitrust breaches will be required to show they have taken “remedial measures” to prevent them happening again before they will be allowed to bid for syndications, the spokesman added.

Bank of America, Natixis, Nomura, NatWest and UniCredit have been prevented from taking part due to a Commission antitrust ruling last month that they participated in a bond trading cartel during the eurozone debt crisis a decade ago.

Citigroup, JPMorgan and Barclays — in addition to NatWest — have also been barred due to a finding two years ago that they were involved in manipulating currency markets between 2007 and 2013, people familiar with the matter said. Deutsche Bank and Crédit Agricole are also excluded due to an April ruling that they were involved in a different bond trading cartel, the people said. All the banks declined to comment.

Despite this, Reuters reported earlier (citing a senior banker in charge of the deal) that the EU's first offering of €20 billion ($24.3 billion) in bonds was heavily oversubscribed. The popularity isn't that surprising, considering that Triple-A rated debt in the region can be hard to come by (since the ECB owns much of the market). And the EU bonds feature a slight yield premium to German bunds. Investors placed upwards of €140 billion in orders for the €20 billion of debt, according to bankers who spoke to Reuters.

The new EU bond, due July 4 2031, will price 2 basis points below the mid-swap rate, according to the lead manager. That is equivalent to a yield of around 0.06%, according to Reuters calculations, down from around one basis point over the mid-swap level when the sale started on Monday.

Since October, the EU has already issued 90 billion euros to help finance its unemployment support program SURE.

The EU is managing these bond sales like a national debt offering, which is appropriate since they will likely transform the bloc into the world’s biggest supranational debt issuer.

All ten banks are among the 39 approved "primary dealers" which have a responsibility to bid for bonds during government auctions. One anonymous source told the FT that the EU's decision to bar the top dealers could create unnecessary complications for the sales. "There’s a delicate equilibrium in the relationship between issuers and primary dealers, and this risks upsetting that,”" said a senior banker at one of the lenders barred from syndicated deals. "These issues they are bringing up are from a long time ago, and they have been settled."

The banks working on Tuesday’s inaugural recovery fund bond are BNP Paribas, DZ Bank, HSBC, Intesa Sanpaolo, Morgan Stanley, Danske Bank and Santander.

The EU is expected to sell two more syndicated bonds by the end of July.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/15/2021 - 09:49

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