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Update: 89 Analysts Now Forecast Gold Going To $3,000 & Beyond!

Many analysts are projecting that gold will be going at least as high as $3,000/ozt over the next few years. One analyst even claims that gold will spike…

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More and more analysts are projecting that gold will be going at least as high as $3,000/ozt over the next few years. One even claims that gold will spike up to $87,500/ozt.! Below is an updated list of their names and stated rationale for each forecast.

By Lorimer Wilson, editor of munKNEE.com – Your Key To Making Money!

  1. Jim Sinclair: $50,000 in 2025 and to $87,500 by 2032
    • In a recent YouTube video Sinclair said that, with so many U.S. Dollars being printed to uphold the economy as a result of COVID-19, that Gold will rise to $50,000/ozt. (i.e. go “straight up” in Sinclair’s words) at the end of the 45-year gold cycle which is coming up in 2025 and rise up to $87,500/ozt. by the end of 2032. Source
  2. Stephen Leeb: +$35,000 by 2032
    • “I wouldn’t be surprised if everything related to commodities performs even better this time around – albeit with sharper volatility – than in the earlier decade…[and that goes for] my nominal 10-year target of $35,000 [as well].” Source
  3. Egon von Greyerz: $35,000 (No date specified)
    • I would not be surprised to see a 0.1 [Dow/Gold] ratio. That could lead to 3,500 Dow and $35,000 gold.” Source
  4. Erik Lytikainen: $25,000 by 2030
    • “We will not be surprised to see $25,000 per troy ounce of gold by the year 2030.  It will likely be a volatile ride higher, with large drawdowns along the way.” Source
  5. Martin Armstrong: $25,000 (No date specified)
    • “Gold should theoretically sell for $25,000/ozt., given the monetary prolificacy since 1980”…”  Source
  6. Pierre Lassonde: $25,000 by 2049
    • Lassonde says gold could hit $25,000 in 26 years. Source
  7. Avi Gilburt: $25,000 over the next decade plus
    • “I think the math shows gold futures can, and will, surpass $25,000  over the next decade plus.” Source
  8.  Hugo Salinas Price: $22,000 – $50,000 (No date specified)
    • Price says the current melt-down of the world’s debt bubble is likely to continue and he believes that the salvaging of all debt and derivatives might require a gold price as high as between $22,000 and $50,000 per troy ounce.  Source
  9. Frank Barbera: $20,000 to $50,000 sometime between 2032 and 2037
    • Barbera sees precious metals…starting a new secular bull market that could last 10 to 15 years. He sees potential for gold to go as high as $20,000/ozt. or even $50,000 ozt. in that period. Source
  10. Goldrunner: $20,000 between mid-2028 and end of 2029
    • As a result of the recent massive paper money printing, our chart work suggests that gold could possibly spike up to as high as $20,000 per troy ounce – or even a bit higher – some time between mid-2028 and the end of 2029.” Source
  11. Peter Schiff: $20,000 (No date specified)
    • The value of gold could rise tenfold and hit $20,000 per troy ounce in the event of a collapse of confidence in the US dollar and runaway inflation.  Source
  12. Briton Hill: $20,000 sometime between 2026 and 2031
    • “You can’t produce trillions of dollars with 0% interest rates and not introduce inflation. Long-term, we could be entering a cycle similar to the 1970s, where the precious metal sector rose by thousands of percentage points, and if we see something like that happen again in the next 5-10 years, we could easily see…$20,000 gold.” Source
    • ————————-
  13. Addison Wiggin: $12,000+ (No date specified)
    • “The gold coverage ratio has risen above 100% twice during 20th century,” most recently at gold’s 1980 peak. “Were this to happen today, the value of an ounce of gold would exceed $12,000.”  Source
  14. Leigh Goehring: $10,000-$15,000 by 2027-28
    • “Our target is between $10,000-$15,000 per troy ounce.,,[by] 2027-28.” Source
  15.  James Rickards: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “$10,000 per troy ounce is not pie in the sky. It’s not a number I pulled out of a hat to get headlines. It’s the actual mathematical implied non-deflationary price of gold.”  Source
  16. Daniel Oliver: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “The money to push gold over $10,000 per troy ounce has already been printed and now they are going to print more…No doubt strong fiscal and monetary intervention may extend its life for a time, but then the ultimate price objective for gold will then be markedly higher.”  Source
  17. Max Keiser: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • To deal with the disaster of “trash fiat money” choking the global economy, a new gold standard will need to be introduced “and to make it work, we will see gold’s price top $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  18. Adam O’Dell: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “The price is guaranteed to hit near $10,000/ozt..”  Source
  19. David Smith: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “Gold could reach US$10,000 per troy ounce by the end of the bull market.” Source
  20. Bob Kirtley: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “My target has been $10,000/ozt since June 2006, so at that point, an exit strategy will be executed, hopefully with some handsome profits.” Source
  21. Arthur Hayes: +$10,000 (No date specified)
    • He argues that central banks will choose to load up on gold instead of dollars causing gold to rise beyond $10,000/ozt..  Source
  22. Chris Waltzek: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • Waltzek maintains that $10,000 gold may merely be the opening salvo of an explosive new bull market for PMs. Source
    • —————–
  23. Gov Capital: $8,531 by 2025
    • “5 year gold forecast: $8530.74/ozt.” Source
  24. Florian Grummes: $8,000 to $9,000 sometime between 2025 and 2030
    • “We could end up having gold at $8,000 to $9,000 per troy ounce in five to 10 years.” Source
  25. Robin Griffiths: $8,000 (No date specified)
    • Griffiths says $8,000 gold is not unreasonable because China and India are becoming more dominant and to them, gold is real money.  Source
  26. Graham Summers: $8,000 (No date specified)
    • “Gold first rallied about 630% from 2003-2011. It then corrected about 43% before bottoming in 2015 at $1,060/ozt.. If it follows a similar second leg up this time around, it’s going to ~$8,000 per troy ounce before it peaks.”  Source
  27.  Jan Nieuwenhuijs: $8,000 to $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “A long-term gold valuation model, which assumes gold will account for the majority of international reserves, suggests the gold price to exceed $8,000 in the coming decade…and if central banks stockpile 51% of their reserves in gold, the price of gold would reach $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  28. Hubert Moolman: $7,758 (No date specified)
    • “In my opinion, it is virtually guaranteed that gold will again catch up with the Dow’s performance since 1913, and significantly surpass it just like in the 70s. This means we will likely see gold reach $7,758/ozt. (in the near future) and eventually go on to reach multiples of that high.” Source
  29. AG Thorson: $7,500 – $10,000 by end of 2030
    • “By the end of this decade, we expect gold to reach $7,500 – $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  30. Chris Vermeulen: $7,400 by 2027
  31. Charlie Morris: $7,166 by the end of 2029
    • :A bullish target of $7,166/ozt. is both logical and plausible.”  Source
  32. Mike McGlone: $7,000 by 2025
    • “From 2001-2011, gold advanced about 7.5 times, which if repeated would bring it to around $7,000/ozt. in 2025.” Source
    • —————–
  33. Dominic Frisby: $5,700 (no date specified)
    • “At $1,920/oz gold is a lot cheaper today than it was when it was $1,920/oz back in 2011. It’s a third of the price. To get back to those equivalent levels, assuming no change in the price of the S&P500, gold would have to triple. I like the sound of $5,700/oz gold!” Source
  34. Equity Management Academy: $5,500 in 2024
    • “Gold will then hit the delusion phase and in a new paradigm gold will hit $5,500 in 2024. After that high, gold will enter another bull trap and fear will drive gold down below $4,000. Gold will then return to its mean at about $1,500 to $2,000.” Source
  35. Chris Wood: $5,386 (No date specified)
    • “The gold price of US$850/ozt. at the peak of the last secular bull market in gold in January 1980 was then equivalent to 9.9% of US disposable income per capita. The gold price is now just 3.6% of US disposable income per capita. Therefore, to reach 9.9% of US disposable income per capita means gold should rise to US$5,386/ozt..” Source
  36. Scott Minerd: $5,000 to $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “As chaotic price swings of the crypto world push investors back into gold and silver, they will start to build momentum, with the ultimate gold price target set at $5,000-$10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  37. Moe Zulfiqar: $5,000 by 2030
    • ” It wouldn’t be shocking to see gold at $5,000 per troy ounce, or more, by 2030. ” Source
  38. Rob McEwen: $5,000 (No date specified)
    • The founder of Goldcorp Inc., McEwen predicts that gold will soar to $5,000 a troy ounce, bolstered by a weaker dollar and waning demand for trendy assets like pot stocks. Source
  39. J.C. Parets: $5,000 (no date specified)
    • Parets sees the price of gold bullion heading towards $5,000 a troy ounce. Source
  40. Michael Lee: $5,000 (no date specified)
    • “We’re on the cusp of a breakout where gold can go up to $5,000. I think the dollar is getting near its peak. Once you see that dollar reversal, once gold gets above $2,000, you could really see it start to take off…considering the amount of money we print, I have no idea why gold is not above $4,000 right now.” Source 
  41. Victor Dergunov: $5,000 by 2024
    • “Gold at $5,000/ozt. in 3-5 years seems plausible, and it is likely to continue to go higher after that.” Source
  42. Dan Popescu: $5,000 by 2025
    • “Gold price could break above $5,000/ozt. in the next 5 years.” Source
  43. David Morgan: $5,000 before the end of the decade
    • “Gold could hit $5,000/ozt., especially as the greenback loses purchasing power.” Source
  44. Ralph Wakerly: $5,000 sometime between 2025 and 2028
    • Believes gold could easily reach $5,000/ozt., maybe more, within 3-6 years. Source
  45. Brian Whitfield: $5,000 by 2030
    • “I feel I am safe, and being conservative, in saying that gold should be trading between $3000 – $5000 per troy ounce in ten years. Should the US dollar fail and/or the US dollar loses the coveted global reserve currency status and/or even the loss of the petrodollar, gold could hit these level far sooner.” Source
  46. Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark Valek: $4,800 to $8,900 by 2030
    • “The proprietary valuation model shows a gold price of $4,800/ozt. at the end of this decade, even with conservative calibration. Should money supply growth develop in a similar inflationary manner to that of the 1970s, a gold price of $8,900/ozt. is conceivable by 2030.” Source
  47. Juerg Kiener: $4,000 in 2023
    • Gold prices could surge to $4,000 per ounce in 2023 as interest rate hikes and recession fears keep markets volatile. Source
  48. Jason Hamlin: $4,000 to $8,000 by 2025
    • “We fully expect to see the gold price close out the year 2025 somewhere between $4,000 and $8,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  49. Rick Rule: $4,000 – $6,000 by 2027
    • Rule says that in past bull cycles, gold has climbed at least seven-fold, and that it is very likely that gold will double or triple by five years’ time. Source
  50. Stan Bharti: $4,000-$5,000 in this cycle
    • Believes gold is going to between $4,000-$5,000/ozt. in this cycle. Source
  51. Frank Holmes: $4,000 by 2023
    • “The yellow metal is set to rally in the same fashion as in the aftermath of the last recession and, if cycles are exactly the same, gold could go to $4,000/ozt.”. Source
  52. Michael Cuggino: $4,000 (No date specified)
    • Cuggino says it would “not be an unreasonable move” for gold to breach $4,000/ozt..  Source
  53. Jordan Roy-Byrne: $4,000 by end of 2024
    • “Gold will hit my $4,000 target by the end of 2024.” Source
  54. GoldPriceForecasts.com: $4,000 in 2031. Source
    • ——————————-
  55. Robert Kiyosaki: $3,800 in 2023; $5,000 by 2025
    • “Giant crash coming. Depression possible. Fed forced to print billions in fake money. By 2025 gold at $5,000, silver at $500, and bitcoin at $500,000. Why? Because faith in U.S. dollar, fake money, will be destroyed. Gold & silver [are] God’s money. Bitcoin [is] people’s $”. Source
  56. Michele Schneider: $3,000-$3,500 by 2024; $5,000 by 2025
    • “Every time we look at the price of gold, we take one step closer to realizing our prediction of the $3000-$3500 price target by 2024 and not ruling out a trip to $5000 by 2025.” Source
  57. Don Durrett: $3,000 to $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “My price target for gold is somewhere between $3,000 and $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  58. Investors Alley: $3,000 -$10,000 by 2028
    • “Given the current environment of rising inflation, negative real yields, a weaker dollar, and ongoing monetary dilution, gold should rise to $3,000 -$10,000/ozt. in 5 years time.” Source
  59. Jeff Clark: $3,000 to $10,000 by 2025
      • “Potential 5-year high: $3,000 to $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  60. Geraldo Del Real: $3,000 to $5,000 (No date specified)
    • “I actually think $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce is very reasonable.” Source
  61. Thomas Kaplan: $3,000 to $5,000 by 2030
    • “Gold prices could rally as high as $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce within a decade.” Source
  62. David Rosenberg: $3,000 to $5,000 (No date specified)
    • “A $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce target is justified based on the facts we have today.”  Source
  63. Diego Parrilla: $3,000 to $5,000 sometime between 2023 and 2025
    • “Unprecedented monetary stimulus is fueling asset bubbles and corporate debt addiction — rendering interest-rate hikes impossible without an economic crash. In the ensuing market mania gold could rise to $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce in the next three to five years.” Source
  64. Kirk Spano: $3,000 to $5,000 by 2025
    • “$3,000/ozt. mid-decade [with] upside potential to $5,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  65. Shaun Djie: $3,000 to $4,000 by the end of 2029
    • “In the next 10 years, gold will continue to be volatile. Gold could trade anywhere between the levels of $3,000 or $4,000 per troy ounce in the next ten years given how much cash will be potentially put into the economy.” Source
  66. Adam Hamilton: $3,450 (No date specified)
    • “Gold prices ought to at least double before this raging inflation runs its course, which would carry it up around $3,450 sometime in the coming years!” Source
  67. Jan van Eck: $3,400 (No date specified)
    • Jan van Eck, Van Eck Associates CEO, has a target for gold of $3,400 an ounce, based on the idea that deflationary market environments with similar levels of government stimulus and systemic risk have been bullish for gold in the past. Source
  68. Joe Foster: $3,200 to $3,400 (No date specified)
    • “We…believe this to be a deflationary cycle and both recent deflationary gold bull markets suggest that a price over $3,000 per troy ounce is reasonable. In fact, if one believes, as we do, that the current central bank stimulus to fight the impacts of the COVID-19 virus, along with elevated levels of systemic risks, are similar to those during the global financial crisis, then $3,400/ozt. may be the target for this bull market.” Source
  69. Charles Gibson: $3,281 (No date specified)
    • “Since 1967, the price of gold has shown an extremely strong (0.909) correlation with the total U.S. monetary base. The more dollars that either are, or could be, in circulation, the higher the expected gold price. With the total US monetary base now closing in on US$5.5tn the gold price could very reasonably be expected to rise to as high as US$3,281/ozt.” Source
  70. Eric Fry: $3,000 to $4,000 (No date specified)
    • ‘When this ballgame ends, gold with be trading for at least $3,000 a troy ounce, and an extra-inning affair would not surprise me — lifting the gold price past $4,000/ozt..” Source
  71. WingCapital Investments: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “Using the post-2008 bull market as a guideline during which gold more than doubled within the ensuing 3 years, $3,000/ozt. would be a reasonable long-term target in our opinion.” Source
  72. Brian Lundin: $3,000 by 2024
    • “I think we’ll set a new record in real terms, exceeding $3,000/ozt., by 2024, or so.” Source
  73. Byron King: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “I think Bank of America is on track. I don’t think there’s any question gold will see $3,000/ozt.. As with all things in life, it’s just a question of how long it will take.” Source
  74.  Ben Morris and Drew McConnell: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “$3,000 per troy ounce isn’t a long shot.” Source
  75.  Stewart Thomson: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “Queen Gold is assured of launching above the key $2,000/ozt. price zone, ready to begin a rocket blast towards my medium-term $3,000/ozt. target!”  Source
  76. John Ing: $3,000+ (No date specified)
    • “We expect gold to trade higher than $3,000 a troy ounce due to a lower greenback and solvency concerns.”  Source
  77. SomaBull: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “The money supply is quickly heading to levels that would support a $3,000/ozt. gold price well in excess of fair value by the time this bull market is exhausted.” Source
  78. Adam Trexler: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “With inflation coming, we’ll see gold over $2,500/ozt. in real dollar terms but we’ll see a devaluing of the dollar…[and] if you see 10% inflation, the dollar number value of gold could be much higher. I don’t think $3,000/ozt. gold is impossible and, if we see a hyperinflation scenario, it could be significantly higher.”  Source
  79. Lawrence Lepard: $3,000 by mid-2024
    • Lepard“is betting that gold hits $3,000 within the next two years. Source
  80. Tony Dobra: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • Dobra believes the situation in Ukraine should see gold topping $2,100/ozt. later in 2023 and then that, anything is possible with $3,000/ozt. more likely than not. Source
  81. Trevor Gerszt: $3,000 by 2025
    • Gerszt believes the prospect for $3,000 gold by mid-decade is not outlandish. Source
  82. Clem Chambers: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “As many gold bulls remain confused about why gold isn’t already heading for $3,000, the question really is, what can possibly stop it? The Federal Reserve’s tightening must be in the price, so all that is left is the open questions of European conflict and the length of time that inflation will run hot.”  Source
  83.  David Garofalo: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “Gold’s all-time peak in real terms was actually achieved in 1981 when the nominal gold price was $850 an ounce, that would be $3,000 an ounce in 2021 dollars. That’s what I think I see in this cycle.”  Source
  84. Bloomberg Intelligence: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “There is a good chance for gold to even reach $3,000 an ounce during this bull run, according to our charts.” Source
  85. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank: $3,000 in 2023
    • Not only is the Fed expecting to end its tightening cycle, but the threat of a global recession will force central banks to pump liquidity back into global financial markets which should drive gold prices to at least $3,000 in 2023. Source
  86. Zach Scheidt: $3,000 in 2023
    • ‘Lower rates could trigger a perfect environment for gold to trade up to $3,000 (or even higher).” Source
  87. Mike Fuljenz: $2,500 to $3,000+ in 2023
    • “My conservative estimate would put it between $2,500 an ounce and just over $3,000 an ounce but it wouldn’t hurt my feelings to see it even higher, so now is the time to buy gold and silver. Source 
  88. Nouriel Roubini: $3,000 by 2028 
    • “Gold to rise by 10 percent per year over five years, resulting in a gold price of over $3,000 per ounce by 2028, an overall return of 60 percent.” Source
  89. Chris Kimble: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “If/When Gold breaks above $2,000, it will clear the way for a rally towards $3,000. Wow! Stay tuned!” Source

What do you think of the above price forecasts? Have your say in the “Comments” section below. Also, if I have missed other analyst forecasts (they must be within the last year) please mentioned them below and I will include them in a future article.

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Aging at AACR Annual Meeting 2024

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging…

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March 11, 2024

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BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals. 

Credit: Impact Journals

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals. 

Impact Journals will be participating as an exhibitor at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2024 from April 5-10 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, California. This year, the AACR meeting theme is “Inspiring Science • Fueling Progress • Revolutionizing Care.”

Visit booth #4159 at the AACR Annual Meeting 2024 to connect with members of the Aging team.

About Aging-US:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed and archived by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed Central, Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com​​ and connect with us:

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

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14 hours ago

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March 11, 2024

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…

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March 11, 2024

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  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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