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UN’s ‘global stocktake’ on climate is offering a sober emissions reckoning − but there are also signs of progress

Many countries still plan to increase fossil fuel production in the coming years and are offering big subsidies. Negotiators have their work cut out for…

Fossil fuel emissions are still growing in much of the world. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

When this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference begins in late November 2023, it will be a moment for course correction. Seven years ago, nearly every country worldwide signed onto the Paris climate agreement. They agreed to goals of limiting global warming – including key targets to be met by 2030, seven years from now.

A primary aim of this year’s conference, known as COP28, is to evaluate countries’ progress halfway to the 2030 deadlines.

Reports show that the world isn’t on track. At the same time, energy security concerns and disputes over how to compensate countries for loss and damage from climate change are making agreements on cutting emissions tougher to reach.

But as energy and environmental policy researchers, we also see signs of progress.

Global stocktake raises alarms

A cornerstone of COP28 is the conclusion of the global stocktake, a review underway of the world’s efforts to address climate change. It is designed to pinpoint deficiencies and help countries recalibrate their climate strategies.

A report on the stocktake so far stressed that while the Paris Agreement has spurred action on climate change around the globe, current policies and promises to cut greenhouse gas emissions still leave the world on a trajectory that falls far short of the agreement’s aim to limit warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) compared with preindustrial temperatures.

Governments worldwide plan to produce twice as much fossil fuel in 2030 than would be allowed under a 1.5 C warming pathway, another U.N.-led report released in early November found.

Limiting global warming to 1.5 C rather than 2 C (3.6 F), may appear to be a minor improvement, but the accumulated global benefits of doing so could exceed US$20 trillion.

Escalating greenhouse gas emissions are the primary factor driving the rise in global temperatures. And fossil fuels account for over three-quarters of those emissions.

To avoid overshooting 1.5 C of warming, global greenhouse gas emissions will have to fall by about 45% by 2030, compared with 2010 levels, and reach net zero around 2050, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

But emissions aren’t falling. They rose in 2022, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. The global average temperature briefly breached the 1.5 C warming limit in March and June 2023.

A line chart of daily temperatures since 1940, by month. 2023 veers sharply upward around May, reaching above the line showing a 1.5 C increase.
A line chart of daily temperatures since 1940, by month, shows how extreme 2023’s temperatures have been. Years before 2014 are in gray. European Union Earth Observation Program

The global stocktake unambiguously states that, to meet the Paris targets, countries must collectively be more ambitious in cutting greenhouse gas emissions. That includes rapidly reducing carbon emissions from all economic sectors. It means accelerating adoption of renewable energy such as solar and wind power, implementing more stringent measures to stop and reverse deforestation, and deploying clean technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles on a wide scale.

The significance of phasing out fossil fuels

The report underscores one point repeatedly: the pressing need to “phase out all unabated fossil fuels.”

Fossil fuels currently make up 80% of the world’s total energy consumption. Their use in 2022 resulted in an all-time high of 36.8 gigatons of CO2 from both energy combustion and industrial activities.

Despite the risks of climate change, countries still provide huge subsidies to the oil, coal and gas industries. In all, they provided about US$1.3 trillion in explicit subsidies for fossil fuels in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund’s calculations. China, the U.S., Russia, the European Union and India are the largest subsidizers, and these subsidies sharply increased after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 disrupted energy markets.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has stressed the importance of transitioning away from fossil fuels, criticizing the extensive profits made by “entrenched interests” in the fossil fuel sector.

African countries also made their view of subsidies clear in the “Nairobi Declaration” at the first Africa Climate Summit in 2023, where leaders called for the elimination of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and endorsed the idea of a global carbon tax on fossil fuel trade.

The global stocktake highlights the significance of eradicating fossil fuel subsidies to eliminate economic roadblocks that hinder the shift to greener energy sources. However, it’s important to note that the report uses the phrase “unabated fossil fuels.” The word “unabated” has been contentious. It allows room for continued use of fossil fuels, as long as technologies such as carbon capture and storage prevent emissions from entering the atmosphere. But those technologies aren’t yet operating on a wide scale.

Solutions for an equitable transition

Several initiatives have been launched recently to expedite the move away from fossil fuels.

In July 2023, Canada unveiled a strategy to terminate inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, becoming the first G20 nation to pledge a halt to government support for oil and natural gas, with some exceptions.

The European Union is broadening its carbon market to include emissions from buildings and transport, targeting decarbonization across more sectors. Concurrently, the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act commits US$10 billion to clean energy projects and offers $4 billion in tax credits to communities economically affected by the coal industry’s decline.

To help low-income countries build sustainable energy infrastructure, a relatively new financing mechanism called Just Energy Transition Partnerships is gaining interest. It aims to facilitate cooperation, with a group of developed countries helping phase out coal in developing economies that are still reliant on fossil fuels.

South Africa, Indonesia, Senegal and Vietnam have benefited from these partnerships since the first was launched in 2021. The European Union, for instance, has pledged to support Senegal’s shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy. This includes managing the economic fallout, such as potential job losses, from shutting down fossil fuel power plants, while ensuring electricity remains affordable and more widely available.

Three men with miners' hats with lights on them and reflective jackets sit in a bus headed for a mine.
A just transition takes into account a future for coal miners, like these men headed for a South African coal mine. Luca Sola/AFP via Getty Images

By COP28, a comprehensive plan to help Senegal aim for a sustainable, low-emissions future should be in place. France, Germany, Canada and various multilateral development banks have promised to provide 2.5 billion Euros (about US$2.68 billion) to increase Senegal’s renewable energy output. The goal is for renewables to account for 40% of Senegal’s energy use by 2030.

To align with the Paris Agreement objectives, we believe global initiatives to reduce fossil fuel dependency and invest in developing nations’ sustainable energy transition are essential. Such endeavors not only champion reducing greenhouse gas emissions but also ensure economic growth in an environmentally conscious manner.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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AstraZeneca’s Q3 financial report bodes profit growth

This is the third consecutive quarter that the company came in ahead of analyst predictions. Chief executive officer (CEO) of the Cambridge-based pharmaceutical…



This is the third consecutive quarter that the company came in ahead of analyst predictions. Chief executive officer (CEO) of the Cambridge-based pharmaceutical enterprise, Pascal Soriot, said:

Our company continued its strong growth trajectory in the third quarter with Total Revenue from our non-COVID-19 medicines up 13% compared to last year.

To boost its future growth prospects further, AstraZeneca announced it bought an exclusive licence for a weight-loss candidate from Eccogene, a China-based pharmaceutics outfit that focuses on metabolic and auto-immune diseases. This deal of an estimated $2bn launches AstraZeneca into the rapidly growing anti-obesity market.

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As one of the top performers among listed European pharmaceutical businesses, AstraZeneca’s third-quarter profits came in at $11.49bn, narrowly beating the market forecast of $11.47bn. A year-on-year comparison shows an increase in total revenue of 15%.

China sales made up 13% of the company’s revenue in 2022. The Q3 report shows a 1% increase in these sales. Although not much, it is the fifth consecutive China-based quarter of growth. Expressing his satisfaction with the financial performance, Soriot further commented:

I am excited about the acceleration of our cardiometabolic and obesity pipeline with today’s licensing agreement for ECC5004, a potential best-in-class, oral GLP-1RA2. This molecule could offer an important advance, as both a monotherapy and in combinations, for the estimated one billion people living with cardiometabolic diseases such as type-2 diabetes and obesity.

The post AstraZeneca’s Q3 financial report bodes profit growth appeared first on LeapRate.

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Arab Spring 2.0? Gro Intelligence’s Head Warns Global Food Crisis ‘Much Worse Than 2008’  

Arab Spring 2.0? Gro Intelligence’s Head Warns Global Food Crisis ‘Much Worse Than 2008’  

Speaking at the sidelines of Bloomberg’s New…



Arab Spring 2.0? Gro Intelligence's Head Warns Global Food Crisis 'Much Worse Than 2008'  

Speaking at the sidelines of Bloomberg's New Economy Forum in Singapore, Sara Menker, founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, cautioned that the current food crisis surpassed the one in 2007-08, which ultimately sparked Arab Spring across the Middle East a few years later. This is primarily due to elevated crop prices and steep declines in local currencies against the dollar. 

Bloomberg's Yvonne Man asked Menker: "When we talk about where we see food prices - come off from the record highs of last year. What drives food insecurity is wars, climate change, and economic shocks. And we're feeling that on all fronts right now... So what worries you the most?" 

Menker responded: "It's actually the narrative that food prices have come off the highs, which has been the narrative we're using because we're all following future markets that are all dollar-denominated as a gauge of where food prices are." 

She said, "Year-on-year food prices have come off quite substantially."

"But what has happened in most other parts of the world that import food - is that food prices continue to go up because local currencies are weakening significantly against the dollar," she said, adding, "People eat in local currency and not in US dollars."

She pointed out, "While wheat futures are down double digits year on year - it's up double digits year on year in Egypt because the price of importing wheat has gone up just due to the decimation of the Egyptian pound." 

Menker said in Syria, food inflation is up 2,000%, 1,200% in Lebonan, and 700% in Argentina. She said the food crisis "is far from over for most people in the world." 

Later in the interview, Man asked Menker: "Where are we headed now? Obviously, we look at the 2007-08 food crisis at that time. Are we getting closer to that scenario?" 

Menker's response was apocalyptic: "Actually, I think we are much worse." 

She explained again, "Where food prices are in a lot of countries - if you take it in a local currency basis - food prices are significantly higher when compared to 2007-08." 

Here's the interview.

For some context, after global food prices spiked in 2007-08, in late 2010 and early 2011, discontent over soaring prices triggered the Arab Spring. 

In late 2020, SocGen's Albert Edwards started to warn about the Federal Reserve blowing bubbles during the Covid pandemic and how it could spark a rise in food prices and the usually ongoing risks, such as social-economic instabilities. 

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations recently warned the world food import bill jumped to nearly $2 trillion in 2022 as many poor countries are on the brink of crisis. 

This time, unlike a decade ago, the Western world has been battered with food inflation crushing tens of millions of low-income folks. 

"There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy," American investigative journalist Alfred Henry Lewis stated in 1906. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/09/2023 - 19:20

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How The Billionaire Elite Manipulate The World

How The Billionaire Elite Manipulate The World

Authored by Raymond Ibrahim via,

What is ultimately behind so many of…



How The Billionaire Elite Manipulate The World

Authored by Raymond Ibrahim via,

What is ultimately behind so many of the (manufactured) ills currently plaguing the West, from leftist lunacy and gender insanity to unnecessary lockdowns and wars?

In a word, the ultra-rich -- the billionaire elite.  So argues bestselling author Hanne Nabintu Herland in her latest book, The Billionaire World: How Marxism Serves the Elite.

In a series of brisk chapters, Herland -- a historian of religions and founder of The Herland Report -- traces all the world’s major problems back to the billionaire elite and their use of Marxist repression and social engineering. 

While this may seem counterintuitive, Herland makes -- and documents -- several powerful arguments. 

The fact that a tiny elite control much can be seen in that  even seemingly opposing and competing brands, such as Coke and Pepsi, are usually owned by the same company, says Herland.  The same applies to supposedly opposing “leftist” and “rightist” media. Six corporations control 90% of all U.S. media. As for the political arena, the “richest 0.01% have accounted for 40% of all campaign contributions through corporate donations.”

In short, “These mastodonte private companies completely dominate our way of life, what we eat, drink, watch on TV, what we wear, and who we vote for.”

Little wonder that, no matter what happens in the world, and no matter how such developments are detrimental to the average person, the ultra-rich tend to only get richer. According to Herland, “82% of all wealth generated in 2017 went to the richest 1% among us, while the poorest world population of 3.7 billion saw no increase in wealth.” 

But it’s worse than that; there seems to be a direct correlation between how much poorer the average man gets and how much richer the billionaires get.  Writes Herland,

[T]he richest among us made billions of dollars on the COVID-19 world tragedy, while the world’s poor plunged into unimaginable poverty…  The shutdown strategy made the billionaires’ profit soar.  In the span of just a few months in 2020, Bill Gates made $75 billion, Jeff Bezos $67.9 billion, Mark Zuckerberg $37.8 billion, and Elon Musk $33.6 billion.

Meanwhile, 48% of small business owners in America experienced severe economic turmoil -- with fully one-third of them going bankrupt, and with Black-owned businesses suffering disproportionately -- due to this lockdown that otherwise profited the billionaires.

From a macro-historic perspective, the  West is slowly regressing, and the ultra-rich are becoming “the globalist version of feudal lords, as the new Western slave class emerges beneath them.”

But how did this lamentable state of affairs comes to pass in the first place?  Marxism -- in its myriad forms and iterations -- is Herland’s answer.  Since the 1960s, beginning with the “free sex and drugs” movement, Marxism, especially in the guise of godless materialism, has wormed its way into Western culture, poisoning, corrupting and destroying everything that originally made the West great, and therefore making it ripe for the most powerful -- meaning the richest -- to manipulate and control.   Writes Herland,

The Marxist attack on historic Western values has weakened the very core of our culture, destroyed social stability and the family, quenched free speech and silenced the people -- and thereby removed the obstacles for the billionaire class to gain centralized control… The combination of strong private corporations coupled with political socialist ideologies has pushed for a radical groupthink model in which the population is expected to agree with the consensus -- not unlike that which we witnessed during National Socialism in Germany before and during World War II.”

Marxism is especially apt at exploiting any environment where freedom and liberty erode and are replaced with groupthink.  In the words of Vladimir Lenin:

We must be ready to employ trickery, deceit, law-breaking, withholding and concealing truth... We can and must write in a language which sows among the masses hate, revulsion and scorn towards those who disagree with us.

It needs no great expounding to say that these tactics dominate all social and political discourse today -- more than a century after they were first written down.

There is much more to recommend Herland’s Billionaire World. Almost every pressing topic -- including the politicization of science, the rise of (openly Marxist) groups such as Black Lives Matter (BLM), the global persecution of Christians, the stoking of racial tensions, and the rewriting of history -- is connected to the overlooked role of the billionaire elites and their self-serving agendas.

*  *  *

Raymond Ibrahim, author of Defenders of the West and Sword and Scimitar is the Distinguished Senior Shillman Fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/09/2023 - 17:00

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