The sudden stop of the global economy in 2020 has brought to everyone’s attention the interconnectedness of supply chains across countries and continents. Add to this the mounting tensions between the US and China, with President Trump now pushing for a decoupling from the Chinese economy as a key part of his re-election campaign.
Many question whether the events of 2020 will leave us with a less globalised world. Some even wonder whether COVID-19 has killed globalisation.
But globalisation has not run its course. People were questioning its future long before 2020, citing pressure from protectionism and nationalism. In response, Frans Appel, CEO of Deutsche Post, made a compelling case in December 2019, backed by extensive data analysis, that globalisation was holding up remarkably well.
Since then, the pandemic has severely reduced cross-border flows like global trade. But wherever infection rates have come under control and lockdowns have eased, there have been signs of recovery.
The pandemic has also shown the economic importance of global connections. Take the race to produce a vaccine. A German bio-tech company, BioNTech, run by a scientist born in Turkey, listed on the US NASDAQ, is working in partnership with US medical giant Pfizer and the Chinese group Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical. It’s a vivid example of today’s globally interconnected business world.
Living with uncertainty
Certainly, businesses are having to live with great uncertainty. We don’t know when a vaccine will become available and whether new waves of infection will occur. The economic fallout is still unknown, given the restrictions most countries are still imposing.
Then there is the political climate. As Tata Sons chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran put it, “geopolitical conflicts have become a new normal for every business”.
It is clear to me that these uncertainties have knock-on effects. US companies may come under more pressure from Trump over their China connections.
India is actively seeking to lure over 1,000 US manufacturing companies out of China. In Japan, outgoing premier Shinzo Abe recently proposed building an economy less dependent on China, suggesting Japanese companies diversify to other countries, especially the ASEAN nations of south-east Asia.
Besides the US/China conflict, there are other political uncertainties such as how Brexit will affect the UK and its relations with the EU. But greater uncertainty does not necessarily imply a retreat of globalisation. It means bigger challenges, but also greater opportunities. To make the best strategic decisions, business leaders need a clear-eyed view of the global dynamics at play and how globalisation is evolving.
Future-proofing
Many industries have been affected dramatically by the pandemic. The world’s largest travel operator, TUI, has seen a 98% drop in turnover in the last quarter. The harsher the economic impact, the more a company and its suppliers have had to focus on short-term survival.
But companies also need to plan for the future with all the other uncertainties from COVID-19 in mind, as well as everything from climate change to cyber attacks. According to a recent McKinsey Global Institute report, companies now expect month-long disruptions to their supply chains every 3.7 years – the equivalent of 40% of one year’s profits within the next decade, and that’s only an average.
To minimise these effects, companies need to reflect on their overall geographic footprints, supply chains and organisational structures. Companies relying on a single country for a specific part found themselves overly exposed as soon as lockdown got underway. A more diversified supply network may be less efficient, but it can make companies more flexible and resilient in such turbulent times.
Given the geopolitical climate, making supply chains more regionally concentrated and closer to consumer demand is another way for companies to reduce their exposure to future upheaval while still taking advantage of local expertise and other benefits such as tax differences. For example, Apple is now investing in two separate supply chains for the iPhone – one for China and one for everywhere else.
Digital transformation
Finally, digital technologies will drive the next globalisation phase. They were already key drivers, enabling global innovation and productivity, connecting consumers and suppliers, and moving information quickly. Digital advances are the primary reason why international internet bandwidth is more than 500 times that of 2001, for instance.
The pandemic has further accelerated this trend. Take the car industry. Conventional wisdom previously considered car sales very unlikely to move online, but that is exactly what happened as showrooms were forced to close. Carlos Tavares, CEO of Peugeot owner PSA, recently called this a “Darwinian reality”, with PSA aiming to deliver more than 100,000 cars straight to clients’ homes without them ever visiting a showroom.
Many companies have rushed to boost online sales to take advantage of consumers being at home, and offset the effect of the pandemic on their revenues. Adidas nearly doubled its e-commerce business in the second quarter, and is expecting more growth from consumers who are no longer resistant to online shopping.
Besides e-commerce, companies must rethink how to make best use of digital technologies across the board. Multinationals ranging from Google to Twitter, from PwC to Schroders are set to continue to allow the majority of their staff to work from home after the pandemic. So the shift to remote working could be permanent. Companies will need a solid digital infrastructure to be able to interact with customers, suppliers and business partners in this world.
Equally, the World Trade Organization has observed that international trade costs declined by 15% between 1996 and 2014 and expects that new digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, the internet of things, 3D printing and blockchains will help further reduce costs in future.
No wonder cross-border data flows are expected to grow even faster in the coming years. To remain competitive after COVID-19 and reap the potential benefits, as well as being ready for new forms of globalisation to emerge, the ability of a company to seize the opportunities offered by digital technologies will be more important than ever.
Niccolò Pisani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
JMIR Neurotechnology, published by JMIR Publications, welcomes submissions from researchers, clinicians, caregivers, and technologists that explore novel…
JMIR Neurotechnology, published by JMIR Publications, welcomes submissions from researchers, clinicians, caregivers, and technologists that explore novel diagnostic and treatment tools for neurological disorders, particularly those leveraging the potential of neurotechnology.
Credit: JMIR Publications
JMIR Neurotechnology, published by JMIR Publications, welcomes submissions from researchers, clinicians, caregivers, and technologists that explore novel diagnostic and treatment tools for neurological disorders, particularly those leveraging the potential of neurotechnology.
The scope of the journal includes but is not limited to:
Neuroradiology
Advancements in neurosurgery
Innovative diagnostic tools and techniques
Cutting-edge neurotechnology for therapeutics
Data sharing and open science in neurotechnology
Code transparency and reproducibility
Neurorehabilitation
Cognitive enhancement
Challenges and ethical considerations
Neuroimaging and brain-machine interfaces
Neurotechnology and artificial intelligence (AI).
For a limited time only, JMIR Neurotechnology is offering a 50% APF discount on all manuscripts accepted for publication with the use of an active promo code. For more information, please visit https://neuro.jmir.org/about-journal/article-processing-fees.
Please visit our website for more information on submission guidelines and the peer-review process.
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About JMIR Publications
JMIR Publications is a leading, born-digital, open access publisher of 35+ academic journals and other innovative scientific communication products that focus on the intersection of health, and technology. Its flagship journal, the Journal of Medical Internet Research, is the leading digital health journal globally in content breadth and visibility, and is the largest journal in the medical informatics field.
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fMRI study finds correlated shifts in brain connectivity associated with overthinking in adolescents
COLUMBUS, Ohio – A new study from The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and College of Medicine, University of Utah and University of Exeter…
COLUMBUS, Ohio – A new study from The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and College of Medicine, University of Utah and University of Exeter (UK) substantiates previous groundbreaking research that rumination (overthinking) can be reduced through an intervention called Rumination-focused Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (RF-CBT). In addition, the use of fMRI technology allowed researchers to observe correlated shifts in the brain connectivity associated with overthinking.
Credit: The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center
COLUMBUS, Ohio – A new study from The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and College of Medicine, University of Utah and University of Exeter (UK) substantiates previous groundbreaking research that rumination (overthinking) can be reduced through an intervention called Rumination-focused Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (RF-CBT). In addition, the use of fMRI technology allowed researchers to observe correlated shifts in the brain connectivity associated with overthinking.
Study findings are published online in the journal Biological Psychiatry Global Open Science.
“We know adolescent development is pivotal. Their brains are maturing, and habits are forming. Interventions like RF-CBT can be game-changers, steering them towards a mentally healthy adulthood. We were particularly excited that the treatment seemed developmentally appropriate and was acceptable and accessible via telehealth during the early pandemic,” said corresponding author Scott Langenecker, PhD, vice chair of research in the Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Health at Ohio State, who started this project while at the University of Utah.
RF-CBT is a promising approach pioneered by Ed Watkins, PhD, professor of experimental and applied Clinical Psychology at the University of Exeter. It has been shown to be effective among adults with recurrent depression.
“We wanted to see if we could adapt it for a younger population to prevent the ongoing burden of depressive relapse,” said Rachel Jacobs, PhD, adjunct assistant professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Northwestern University who conducted the pilot study in 2016.
“As a clinician, I continued to observe that standard CBT tools such as cognitive restructuring didn’t give young people the tools to break out of the painful mental loops that contribute to experiencing depression again. If we could find a way to do that, maybe we could help young people stay well as they transition to adulthood, which has become even more important since we’ve observed the mental health impact of COVID-19,” Jacobs said.
In the just published trial, 76 teenagers, ages 14-17, with a history of depression were randomly assigned to 10-14 sessions of RF-CBT, while controls were allowed and encouraged to receive any standard treatment. Teens reported ruminating significantly less if they received RF-CBT. Even more intriguing, fMRI illustrated shifts in brain connectivity, marking a change at the neural level.
Specifically, there was a reduction in the connection between the left posterior cingulate cortex and two other regions; the right inferior frontal gyrus and right inferior temporal gyrus. These zones, involved in self-referential thinking and emotional stimuli processing, respectively, suggest RF-CBT can enhance the brain’s ability to shift out of the rumination habit. Notably, this work is a pre-registered replication; it demonstrates the same brain and clinical effects in the Utah sample in 2023 that was first reported in the Chicago sample in 2016.
“For the first time, this paper shows that the version of rumination-focused CBT we have developed at the University of Exeter leads to changes in connectivity in brain regions in adolescents with a history of depression relative to treatment as usual. This is exciting, as it suggests the CBT either helps patients to gain more effortless control over rumination or makes it less habitual. We urgently need new ways to reduce rumination in this group in order to improve the mental health of our young people,” Watkins said.
Next, the researchers will focus on demonstrating the efficacy of RF-CBT in a larger sample with an active treatment control, including continued work at Ohio State, Nationwide Children’s Hospital, University of Exeter, University of Utah and the Utah Center for Evidence Based Treatment. Future directions include bolstering access to teens in clinical settings and enhancing the ways we can learn about how this treatment helps youth with similar conditions.
“Our paper suggests a science-backed method to break the rumination cycle and reinforces the idea that it’s never too late or too early to foster healthier mental habits. Our research team thanks the youths and families who participated in this study for their commitment and dedication to reducing the burden of depression through science and treatment, particularly during the challenges of a global pandemic,” Langenecker said.
This work was supported by the National Institutes of Mental Health and funds from the Huntsman Mental Health Institute and is dedicated to researcher Kortni K. Meyers and others who have lost their lives to depression.
# # #
Journal
Biological Psychiatry Global Open Science
DOI
10.1016/j.bpsgos.2023.08.012
Method of Research
Randomized controlled/clinical trial
Subject of Research
People
Article Title
Rumination-Focused Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Reduces Rumination and Targeted Cross-network Connectivity in Youth With a History of Depression: Replication in a Preregistered Randomized Clinical Trial
Article Publication Date
27-Oct-2023
COI Statement
Edward R. Watkins reports royalties from a treatment manual for RF-CBT published by Guilford Press and licensing of RF-CBT for Internet treatment packages. Sheila E. Crowell is a co-owner of the Utah Center for Evidence Based Treatment, an outpatient psychotherapy practice that is unrelated to this work. Scott A. Langenecker reports
consultant payments from Stony Brook University, Penn State University, and Johns Hopkins University (unrelated to this work) and payments from the Center for Scientific Review (unrelated to this work) and part ownership of Secondary Triad, Inc. (unrelated to this work). All other authors report no biomedical financial interests or potential conflicts of interest.
Republicans and Democrats both have misconceptions about the energy sector, with the former often downplaying climate change and the latter misunderstanding oil industry operations.
Oil prices are determined by global supply and demand, not by individual oil companies; thus, claims of oil companies causing inflation or gouging prices are misplaced.
Implementing policies like windfall profits taxes on oil companies doesn't address the root issues of supply and demand, and it's essential for policymakers to have a comprehensive understanding of the energy sector for effective governance.
Good energy policy starts with a good understanding of energy issues. But both major political parties have glaring blind spots when it comes to understanding the energy sector.
Let me preface this column by noting that I am a registered Independent. I have major disagreements with both political parties, and I strive to approach issues from a completely objective viewpoint.
I think Republicans get it mostly wrong when it comes to climate change, and the importance of transitioning to alternative energy. But they seem to understand the current critical role of fossil fuels in the economy, and they mostly get it right when it comes to supporting nuclear power.
Democrats never seem to understand how the oil industry works. For example, look at the list of Democrats who signed onto the “Big Oil Windfall Profits Tax” introduced last year by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI). In announcing the bill, Senator Whitehouse said it would “curb profiteering by oil companies and provide Americans relief at the gas pump.”
The bill was cosponsored by Senators Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Jack Reed (D-RI), Ed Markey (D-MA), Cory Booker (D-NJ), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Bob Casey (D-PA). Congressman Ro Khanna (D-CA-17) introduced the legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives.
In addition to claims of price gouging, this same cast of characters has sometimes blamed oil company profits for inflation.
These politicians do not seem to understand that oil companies don’t control prices. Oil is the world’s most valuable commodity. Oil prices are set by buyers and sellers in global markets, based on supply and demand expectations.
Firms like ExxonMobil produce such a small share of the world’s oil they couldn’t move prices much if they wanted to. They benefit from high prices, but don’t set those prices. If they did, prices would never fall.
Saying profits cause inflation confuses cause and effect. It’s like saying hospitalizations cause car crashes. It is true that a car crash can result in hospitalization, but hospitalizations do not cause car crashes. If you believe the latter — and you try to address the problem by focusing on the hospital — you are working on the wrong problem.
Likewise, high profits in the oil industry and inflation are both caused by high oil prices. But high oil prices are caused by supply and demand factors.
Outside of rare circumstances, it’s impossible for oil companies to gouge you, because they don’t set the price. An example of true price gouging would be if a local gas station that sets its own prices doubled them when supply is ample. But Chevron earning more from high global prices set by markets is normal capitalism. That’s how the entire global commodity markets work.
I can only imagine that in the minds of some politicians, executives of Big Oil are meeting in smoke-filled boardrooms, rubbing their greedy hands together, and deciding to raise prices because Russia invaded Ukraine. But that’s not how any of this works.
If politicians want to address oil prices, they need to address the supply side and the demand side. When politicians propose windfall profits taxes on oil companies, intending to give rebates to consumers, it might sound good, but it doesn’t address the core issue.
High prices should signal consumers to use less energy, but rebates would diminish the price signal — which wouldn’t alleviate pressure on demand. On the supply side, punitive taxes on oil companies might sound appealing, but that’s less money that can be allocated to projects, which affects future supplies. Former Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez learned this lesson the hard way, and Venezuela is still paying the price.
Some have expressed outrage that oil companies are using record profits to buy back shares or pay special dividends to shareholders. But it’s common for companies, not just in the oil industry, to buy back shares or pay dividends when profits are high. It’s a part of how our capitalist system works. If companies can issue shares, they should be able to buy them back.
For consumers worried about high oil prices, there are options. You can invest in an oil company. Thus, when oil prices rise, so do your shares. Or consider switching to an electric vehicle to reduce your reliance on fossil fuels.
In conclusion, understanding energy issues is crucial for effective policymaking, yet both major political parties often exhibit significant misunderstandings of the energy sector. By understanding the complexities of the energy sector, policymakers and consumers alike can make informed decisions that contribute to a more sustainable and economically sound future.
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