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Top Analysts Bet on These 3 Penny Stocks; See 100%-Plus Upside Potential

Top Analysts Bet on These 3 Penny Stocks; See 100%-Plus Upside Potential

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Penny stocks give a whole new meaning to risk/reward plays. These tickers can witness explosive movements in the blink of an eye, giving them a Street reputation for their high volatility. Any positive development can act as a catalyst that sends shares skyrocketing. The flip-side, however, does hold true, so the risk-averse tend to shy away from these names.

So, how are investors supposed to determine which penny stocks are capable of outperforming the rest? Tracking the analyst community’s activity can be an effective strategy. The pros, who have in-depth knowledge of the industry, offer insight into many names, some of which fly relatively under-the-radar.

Bearing this in mind, we used TipRanks’ database to track down affordable yet compelling plays. We found three penny stocks going for less than $5 apiece with bullish reviews from 5-star Wall Street analysts and over 100% upside potential. Let's take a closer look.

Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI)

Primarily targeting diseases in hematology and oncology, Spectrum Pharmaceuticals hopes its therapies will be able to address the unmet medical needs of patients. With a $3.08 share price, some analysts believe that now is the ideal time to snap up shares.

Writing for H.C. Wainwright, 5-star analyst Edward White remains focused on its novel long-acting granulocyte colony stimulating factor (GCSF) designed to stimulate neutrophil production for the treatment of chemotherapy induced neutropenia patients, Rolontis. Ahead of the candidate’s October 24 PDUFA date, the analyst highlights that Rolontis isn’t a biosimilar, and calls for 2020 sales of $3 million. Underscoring the huge potential here, he estimates sales will reach $300 million in 2026.

“Pricing in the market seems to be rational with the competition appearing more typical of a branded drug market rather than a generic drug market. Management noted that about 1 million units of GCSF are dispensed per year and that ASP price has been compressing between branded drugs and biosimilars. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the company has plenty of inventory available to support the commercial launch of Rolontis,” White commented.

It should also be noted that given the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19, management is planning for both a traditional and a virtual launch. In addition, SPPI is set to have a sufficient sales force on board in time for the commercial launch.

Looking at the clinical trial for Rolontis dosed on the same day as chemotherapy, White argues that the design should bode well for SPPI. “As this is an open-label study, the company can see early data before deciding to continue with development. Though data for a label change are years away, if the data are positive, this study could help dramatically change Rolontis’ market share in the future as we believe same day dosing in a post-COVID-19 world could be a game changer,” he explained.

With ZENITH20 Cohort 1 Poziotinib data at AACR demonstrating “there may be some hope yet”, the deal is sealed for White.

In addition to reiterating a Buy recommendation, he left his price target at $11. This target implies shares could climb 250% higher in the next year. (To watch White’s track record, click here)   

Overall, though not many have weighed in with an opinion on SPPI in the last 3 months, those who have are singing its praises loudly. Overall, two analysts rate the stock a Buy, and the $9.50 average price target puts the potential twelve-month gain at 202%. (See SPPI stock analysis on TipRanks)

Seres Therapeutics (MCRB)

Taking its place at the forefront of microbiome therapeutics, Seres Therapeutics wants to transform the treatment of a wide range of diseases by modulating the function of the human microbiome.

Based on the multiple catalysts slated for 2020 as well as its $4.73 share price, it’s no wonder MCRB is getting glowing reviews from several members of the Street.

Standing squarely in the bull camp is 5-star analyst Gbola Amusa, of Chardan Capital. He points out that enrollment for the Phase 3 ECOSPOR III trial evaluating SER-109's ability to prevent recurrent C. difficile infection (rCDI) is complete, with the candidate already receiving Breakthrough Therapy Designation.

As for the implications of this development, Amusa noted, “With positive results on the expected mid-2022 readout, ECOSPOR III has the potential to be a single pivotal study for the FDA; Seres plans to initiate a SER-109 Expanded Access Program.”

Adding to the good news, the company has taken strides forward when it comes to the advancement of the clinical development for its rationally-designed, fermented microbiome medicine, SER-155, for the prevention of mortality due to gastrointestinal infections, bacteremia and graft versus host disease (GvHD) in immunocompromised patients.

It should be noted that management told investors COVID-19 could impact its SER-287 Phase 2b and SER-401 Phase 1b clinical readouts. This is because the pandemic has put non-essential procedures including endoscopies on hold, and thus, it has been challenging to reach enrollment targets on time. That being said, the company doesn’t believe the availability of its product candidates for ongoing studies will experience any disruptions.

While a potential data readout delay has alarmed some investors, Amusa remains unphased. “Even with Covid-19-related uncertainties on SER-287 and SER-401, we continue to see 2020 as a catalyst rich year for Seres on the ECOSPOR III results alone, which with positive results could lead to SER-109 becoming the first FDA-approved microbiome medicine. Even with recent movements, the current MCRB market cap of $334 million to us is still modest in relation to the risk-adjusted opportunities represented by the pipeline,” he explained.

In line with his optimistic take, Amusa rates MCRB a Buy along with a $12.50 price target. This leaves room for shares to soar 151% in the next year. (To watch Amusa’s track record, click here)     

Do other analysts agree with Amusa? They do. Only Buy ratings, 4, in fact, have been issued in the last three months, so the consensus rating is a Strong Buy. At $9.63, the average price target puts the potential twelve-month gain at 91%. (See MCRB stock analysis on TipRanks)

Akari Therapeutics (AKTX)

Last up to bat we have Akari Therapeutics, which develops innovative treatments for autoinflammatory diseases involving the complement (C5) and leukotriene (LTB4) pathways. Given its strong execution and share price of only $2.14, is now the right time to get in on the action?

According to B.Riley FBR’s Mayank Mamtani, the answer is a resounding yes. At the end of May, the company provided an update on the progress of the clinical trials for bullous pemphigoid (BP), atopic keratoconjunctivitis (AKC) and pediatric transplant-induced thrombotic microangiopathy (HSCT-TMA) indications for its lead program, nomacopan. The candidate is also getting attention for its potential as a therapeutic option for COVID-19 patients.

The 5-star analyst thinks the full Phase 2 BP study results, as well as an orphan designation granted by the FDA and EMA, free AKTX up to kick off end-of-Phase 2 meetings with the FDA and EMA in Q3 2020 to discuss the pivotal Phase 3 trial design. These meetings would address important considerations including enrolling severe patients in addition to mild and moderate, increasing treatment duration from 1.5 to 6 months, an option to dose at 30 mg-plus levels and a choice of active versus comparator arms, including possibly combining or sequencing with steroids.

“There were no treatment-related serious AEs, in line with the favorable tolerability profile noted in other indications (e.g., PNH), highlighting further differentiation relative to steroid standard of care,” Mamtani stated.

However, Mamtani doesn’t dispute the fact that the COVID-19 pandemic has delayed site initiation activities for the Phase 3 HSCT-TMA trial to later in 2020 and the enrollment for the Part B placebo-controlled efficacy cohort of the Phase 1/2 study in severe AKC patients has been halted. That said, Mamtani notes “the interim update remains on track for mid-2020 in ~2/3rd of the targeted 16 patients already enrolled in the study.” He added, “The prior open-label data of nomacopan eye drops demonstrated in three severe atopic keratoconjunctivitis (AKC) patients rapid overall improvement in composite clinical scores of symptoms and signs.”

On top of this, preclinical data has found complement (C5) and leukotriene (LTB-4) pathways may play a role in severe lung inflammation and microthrombi and organ damage associated with COVID-19. This creates an opportunity for nomacopan as it has been shown to produce a “profound and broad-acting anti-inflammatory effect.”

To wrap it all up, Mamtani commented, “We believe AKTX has held up well in the volatile macro environment as investors look to take advantage of the depressed stock levels for this late-stage biotech supported by robust clinical data generated in earlier-stage trials, with incremental Phase 1/2 severe AKC placebo-controlled data anticipated in mid-2020.”

Everything the company has going for it prompted Mamtani to stay with the bulls. Along with a Buy rating, he kept his $5 price target as is, bringing the upside potential to 134%. (To watch Mamtani’s track record, click here)   

Turning now to the rest of the Street, it has been quiet when it comes to other analyst activity. Mamtani’s call was the only one issued recently.

To find good ideas for penny stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

The post Top Analysts Bet on These 3 Penny Stocks; See 100%-Plus Upside Potential appeared first on TipRanks Financial Blog.

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“I Can’t Even Save”: Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

"I Can’t Even Save": Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

While Joe Biden insists that Americans are doing great…

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"I Can't Even Save": Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

While Joe Biden insists that Americans are doing great - suggesting in his State of the Union Address last week that "our economy is the envy of the world," Americans are being absolutely crushed by inflation (which the Biden admin blames on 'shrinkflation' and 'corporate greed'), and of course - crippling debt.

The signs are obvious. Last week we noted that banks' charge-offs are accelerating, and are now above pre-pandemic levels.

...and leading this increase are credit card loans - with delinquencies that haven't been this high since Q3 2011.

On top of that, while credit cards and nonfarm, nonresidential commercial real estate loans drove the quarterly increase in the noncurrent rate, residential mortgages drove the quarterly increase in the share of loans 30-89 days past due.

And while Biden and crew can spin all they want, an average of polls from RealClear Politics shows that just 40% of people approve of Biden's handling of the economy.

Crushed

On Friday, Bloomberg dug deeper into the effects of Biden's "envious" economy on Americans - specifically, how massive debt loads (credit cards and auto loans especially) are absolutely crushing people.

Two years after the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates to tame prices, delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans are the highest in more than a decade. For the first time on record, interest payments on those and other non-mortgage debts are as big a financial burden for US households as mortgage interest payments.

According to the report, this presents a difficult reality for millions of consumers who drive the US economy - "The era of high borrowing costs — however necessary to slow price increases — has a sting of its own that many families may feel for years to come, especially the ones that haven’t locked in cheap home loans."

The Fed, meanwhile, doesn't appear poised to cut rates until later this year.

According to a February paper from IMF and Harvard, the recent high cost of borrowing - something which isn't reflected in inflation figures, is at the heart of lackluster consumer sentiment despite inflation having moderated and a job market which has recovered (thanks to job gains almost entirely enjoyed by immigrants).

In short, the debt burden has made life under President Biden a constant struggle throughout America.

"I’m making the most money I've ever made, and I’m still living paycheck to paycheck," 40-year-old Denver resident Nikki Cimino told Bloomberg. Cimino is carrying a monthly mortgage of $1,650, and has $4,000 in credit card debt following a 2020 divorce.

Nikki CiminoPhotographer: Rachel Woolf/Bloomberg

"There's this wild disconnect between what people are experiencing and what economists are experiencing."

What's more, according to Wells Fargo, families have taken on debt at a comparatively fast rate - no doubt to sustain the same lifestyle as low rates and pandemic-era stimmies provided. In fact, it only took four years for households to set a record new debt level after paying down borrowings in 2021 when interest rates were near zero. 

Meanwhile, that increased debt load is exacerbated by credit card interest rates that have climbed to a record 22%, according to the Fed.

[P]art of the reason some Americans were able to take on a substantial load of non-mortgage debt is because they’d locked in home loans at ultra-low rates, leaving room on their balance sheets for other types of borrowing. The effective rate of interest on US mortgage debt was just 3.8% at the end of last year.

Yet the loans and interest payments can be a significant strain that shapes families’ spending choices. -Bloomberg

And of course, the highest-interest debt (credit cards) is hurting lower-income households the most, as tends to be the case.

The lowest earners also understandably had the biggest increase in credit card delinquencies.

"Many consumers are levered to the hilt — maxed out on debt and barely keeping their heads above water," Allan Schweitzer, a portfolio manager at credit-focused investment firm Beach Point Capital Management told Bloomberg. "They can dog paddle, if you will, but any uptick in unemployment or worsening of the economy could drive a pretty significant spike in defaults."

"We had more money when Trump was president," said Denise Nierzwicki, 69. She and her 72-year-old husband Paul have around $20,000 in debt spread across multiple cards - all of which have interest rates above 20%.

Denise and Paul Nierzwicki blame Biden for what they see as a gloomy economy and plan to vote for the Republican candidate in November.
Photographer: Jon Cherry/Bloomberg

During the pandemic, Denise lost her job and a business deal for a bar they owned in their hometown of Lexington, Kentucky. While they applied for Social Security to ease the pain, Denise is now working 50 hours a week at a restaurant. Despite this, they're barely scraping enough money together to service their debt.

The couple blames Biden for what they see as a gloomy economy and plans to vote for the Republican candidate in November. Denise routinely voted for Democrats up until about 2010, when she grew dissatisfied with Barack Obama’s economic stances, she said. Now, she supports Donald Trump because he lowered taxes and because of his policies on immigration. -Bloomberg

Meanwhile there's student loans - which are not able to be discharged in bankruptcy.

"I can't even save, I don't have a savings account," said 29-year-old in Columbus, Ohio resident Brittany Walling - who has around $80,000 in federal student loans, $20,000 in private debt from her undergraduate and graduate degrees, and $6,000 in credit card debt she accumulated over a six-month stretch in 2022 while she was unemployed.

"I just know that a lot of people are struggling, and things need to change," she told the outlet.

The only silver lining of note, according to Bloomberg, is that broad wage gains resulting in large paychecks has made it easier for people to throw money at credit card bills.

Yet, according to Wells Fargo economist Shannon Grein, "As rates rose in 2023, we avoided a slowdown due to spending that was very much tied to easy access to credit ... Now, credit has become harder to come by and more expensive."

According to Grein, the change has posed "a significant headwind to consumption."

Then there's the election

"Maybe the Fed is done hiking, but as long as rates stay on hold, you still have a passive tightening effect flowing down to the consumer and being exerted on the economy," she continued. "Those household dynamics are going to be a factor in the election this year."

Meanwhile, swing-state voters in a February Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll said they trust Trump more than Biden on interest rates and personal debt.

Reverberations

These 'headwinds' have M3 Partners' Moshin Meghji concerned.

"Any tightening there immediately hits the top line of companies," he said, noting that for heavily indebted companies that took on debt during years of easy borrowing, "there's no easy fix."

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 18:00

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Sylvester researchers, collaborators call for greater investment in bereavement care

MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater…

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MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater risk for many adverse outcomes, including mental health challenges, decreased quality of life, health care neglect, cancer, heart disease, suicide, and death. Now, in a paper published in The Lancet Public Health, researchers sound a clarion call for greater investment, at both the community and institutional level, in establishing support for grief-related suffering.

Credit: Photo courtesy of Memorial Sloan Kettering Comprehensive Cancer Center

MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater risk for many adverse outcomes, including mental health challenges, decreased quality of life, health care neglect, cancer, heart disease, suicide, and death. Now, in a paper published in The Lancet Public Health, researchers sound a clarion call for greater investment, at both the community and institutional level, in establishing support for grief-related suffering.

The authors emphasized that increased mortality worldwide caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, suicide, drug overdose, homicide, armed conflict, and terrorism have accelerated the urgency for national- and global-level frameworks to strengthen the provision of sustainable and accessible bereavement care. Unfortunately, current national and global investment in bereavement support services is woefully inadequate to address this growing public health crisis, said researchers with Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine and collaborating organizations.  

They proposed a model for transitional care that involves firmly establishing bereavement support services within healthcare organizations to ensure continuity of family-centered care while bolstering community-based support through development of “compassionate communities” and a grief-informed workforce. The model highlights the responsibility of the health system to build bridges to the community that can help grievers feel held as they transition.   

The Center for the Advancement of Bereavement Care at Sylvester is advocating for precisely this model of transitional care. Wendy G. Lichtenthal, PhD, FT, FAPOS, who is Founding Director of the new Center and associate professor of public health sciences at the Miller School, noted, “We need a paradigm shift in how healthcare professionals, institutions, and systems view bereavement care. Sylvester is leading the way by investing in the establishment of this Center, which is the first to focus on bringing the transitional bereavement care model to life.”

What further distinguishes the Center is its roots in bereavement science, advancing care approaches that are both grounded in research and community-engaged.  

The authors focused on palliative care, which strives to provide a holistic approach to minimize suffering for seriously ill patients and their families, as one area where improvements are critically needed. They referenced groundbreaking reports of the Lancet Commissions on the value of global access to palliative care and pain relief that highlighted the “undeniable need for improved bereavement care delivery infrastructure.” One of those reports acknowledged that bereavement has been overlooked and called for reprioritizing social determinants of death, dying, and grief.

“Palliative care should culminate with bereavement care, both in theory and in practice,” explained Lichtenthal, who is the article’s corresponding author. “Yet, bereavement care often is under-resourced and beset with access inequities.”

Transitional bereavement care model

So, how do health systems and communities prioritize bereavement services to ensure that no bereaved individual goes without needed support? The transitional bereavement care model offers a roadmap.

“We must reposition bereavement care from an afterthought to a public health priority. Transitional bereavement care is necessary to bridge the gap in offerings between healthcare organizations and community-based bereavement services,” Lichtenthal said. “Our model calls for health systems to shore up the quality and availability of their offerings, but also recognizes that resources for bereavement care within a given healthcare institution are finite, emphasizing the need to help build communities’ capacity to support grievers.”

Key to the model, she added, is the bolstering of community-based support through development of “compassionate communities” and “upskilling” of professional services to assist those with more substantial bereavement-support needs.

The model contains these pillars:

  • Preventive bereavement care –healthcare teams engage in bereavement-conscious practices, and compassionate communities are mindful of the emotional and practical needs of dying patients’ families.
  • Ownership of bereavement care – institutions provide bereavement education for staff, risk screenings for families, outreach and counseling or grief support. Communities establish bereavement centers and “champions” to provide bereavement care at workplaces, schools, places of worship or care facilities.
  • Resource allocation for bereavement care – dedicated personnel offer universal outreach, and bereaved stakeholders provide input to identify community barriers and needed resources.
  • Upskilling of support providers – Bereavement education is integrated into training programs for health professionals, and institutions offer dedicated grief specialists. Communities have trained, accessible bereavement specialists who provide support and are educated in how to best support bereaved individuals, increasing their grief literacy.
  • Evidence-based care – bereavement care is evidence-based and features effective grief assessments, interventions, and training programs. Compassionate communities remain mindful of bereavement care needs.

Lichtenthal said the new Center will strive to materialize these pillars and aims to serve as a global model for other health organizations. She hopes the paper’s recommendations “will cultivate a bereavement-conscious and grief-informed workforce as well as grief-literate, compassionate communities and health systems that prioritize bereavement as a vital part of ethical healthcare.”

“This paper is calling for healthcare institutions to respond to their duty to care for the family beyond patients’ deaths. By investing in the creation of the Center for the Advancement of Bereavement Care, Sylvester is answering this call,” Lichtenthal said.

Follow @SylvesterCancer on X for the latest news on Sylvester’s research and care.

# # #

Article Title: Investing in bereavement care as a public health priority

DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00030-6

Authors: The complete list of authors is included in the paper.

Funding: The authors received funding from the National Cancer Institute (P30 CA240139 Nimer) and P30 CA008748 Vickers).

Disclosures: The authors declared no competing interests.

# # #


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Separating Information From Disinformation: Threats From The AI Revolution

Separating Information From Disinformation: Threats From The AI Revolution

Authored by Per Bylund via The Mises Institute,

Artificial intelligence…

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Separating Information From Disinformation: Threats From The AI Revolution

Authored by Per Bylund via The Mises Institute,

Artificial intelligence (AI) cannot distinguish fact from fiction. It also isn’t creative or can create novel content but repeats, repackages, and reformulates what has already been said (but perhaps in new ways).

I am sure someone will disagree with the latter, perhaps pointing to the fact that AI can clearly generate, for example, new songs and lyrics. I agree with this, but it misses the point. AI produces a “new” song lyric only by drawing from the data of previous song lyrics and then uses that information (the inductively uncovered patterns in it) to generate what to us appears to be a new song (and may very well be one). However, there is no artistry in it, no creativity. It’s only a structural rehashing of what exists.

Of course, we can debate to what extent humans can think truly novel thoughts and whether human learning may be based solely or primarily on mimicry. However, even if we would—for the sake of argument—agree that all we know and do is mere reproduction, humans have limited capacity to remember exactly and will make errors. We also fill in gaps with what subjectively (not objectively) makes sense to us (Rorschach test, anyone?). Even in this very limited scenario, which I disagree with, humans generate novelty beyond what AI is able to do.

Both the inability to distinguish fact from fiction and the inductive tether to existent data patterns are problems that can be alleviated programmatically—but are open for manipulation.

Manipulation and Propaganda

When Google launched its Gemini AI in February, it immediately became clear that the AI had a woke agenda. Among other things, the AI pushed woke diversity ideals into every conceivable response and, among other things, refused to show images of white people (including when asked to produce images of the Founding Fathers).

Tech guru and Silicon Valley investor Marc Andreessen summarized it on X (formerly Twitter): “I know it’s hard to believe, but Big Tech AI generates the output it does because it is precisely executing the specific ideological, radical, biased agenda of its creators. The apparently bizarre output is 100% intended. It is working as designed.”

There is indeed a design to these AIs beyond the basic categorization and generation engines. The responses are not perfectly inductive or generative. In part, this is necessary in order to make the AI useful: filters and rules are applied to make sure that the responses that the AI generates are appropriate, fit with user expectations, and are accurate and respectful. Given the legal situation, creators of AI must also make sure that the AI does not, for example, violate intellectual property laws or engage in hate speech. AI is also designed (directed) so that it does not go haywire or offend its users (remember Tay?).

However, because such filters are applied and the “behavior” of the AI is already directed, it is easy to take it a little further. After all, when is a response too offensive versus offensive but within the limits of allowable discourse? It is a fine and difficult line that must be specified programmatically.

It also opens the possibility for steering the generated responses beyond mere quality assurance. With filters already in place, it is easy to make the AI make statements of a specific type or that nudges the user in a certain direction (in terms of selected facts, interpretations, and worldviews). It can also be used to give the AI an agenda, as Andreessen suggests, such as making it relentlessly woke.

Thus, AI can be used as an effective propaganda tool, which both the corporations creating them and the governments and agencies regulating them have recognized.

Misinformation and Error

States have long refused to admit that they benefit from and use propaganda to steer and control their subjects. This is in part because they want to maintain a veneer of legitimacy as democratic governments that govern based on (rather than shape) people’s opinions. Propaganda has a bad ring to it; it’s a means of control.

However, the state’s enemies—both domestic and foreign—are said to understand the power of propaganda and do not hesitate to use it to cause chaos in our otherwise untainted democratic society. The government must save us from such manipulation, they claim. Of course, rarely does it stop at mere defense. We saw this clearly during the covid pandemic, in which the government together with social media companies in effect outlawed expressing opinions that were not the official line (see Murthy v. Missouri).

AI is just as easy to manipulate for propaganda purposes as social media algorithms but with the added bonus that it isn’t only people’s opinions and that users tend to trust that what the AI reports is true. As we saw in the previous article on the AI revolution, this is not a valid assumption, but it is nevertheless a widely held view.

If the AI then can be instructed to not comment on certain things that the creators (or regulators) do not want people to see or learn, then it is effectively “memory holed.” This type of “unwanted” information will not spread as people will not be exposed to it—such as showing only diverse representations of the Founding Fathers (as Google’s Gemini) or presenting, for example, only Keynesian macroeconomic truths to make it appear like there is no other perspective. People don’t know what they don’t know.

Of course, nothing is to say that what is presented to the user is true. In fact, the AI itself cannot distinguish fact from truth but only generates responses according to direction and only based on whatever the AI has been fed. This leaves plenty of scope for the misrepresentation of the truth and can make the world believe outright lies. AI, therefore, can easily be used to impose control, whether it is upon a state, the subjects under its rule, or even a foreign power.

The Real Threat of AI

What, then, is the real threat of AI? As we saw in the first article, large language models will not (cannot) evolve into artificial general intelligence as there is nothing about inductive sifting through large troves of (humanly) created information that will give rise to consciousness. To be frank, we haven’t even figured out what consciousness is, so to think that we will create it (or that it will somehow emerge from algorithms discovering statistical language correlations in existing texts) is quite hyperbolic. Artificial general intelligence is still hypothetical.

As we saw in the second article, there is also no economic threat from AI. It will not make humans economically superfluous and cause mass unemployment. AI is productive capital, which therefore has value to the extent that it serves consumers by contributing to the satisfaction of their wants. Misused AI is as valuable as a misused factory—it will tend to its scrap value. However, this doesn’t mean that AI will have no impact on the economy. It will, and already has, but it is not as big in the short-term as some fear, and it is likely bigger in the long-term than we expect.

No, the real threat is AI’s impact on information. This is in part because induction is an inappropriate source of knowledge—truth and fact are not a matter of frequency or statistical probabilities. The evidence and theories of Nicolaus Copernicus and Galileo Galilei would get weeded out as improbable (false) by an AI trained on all the (best and brightest) writings on geocentrism at the time. There is no progress and no learning of new truths if we trust only historical theories and presentations of fact.

However, this problem can probably be overcome by clever programming (meaning implementing rules—and fact-based limitations—to the induction problem), at least to some extent. The greater problem is the corruption of what AI presents: the misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation that its creators and administrators, as well as governments and pressure groups, direct it to create as a means of controlling or steering public opinion or knowledge.

This is the real danger that the now-famous open letter, signed by Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, and others, pointed to:

“Should we let machines flood our information channels with propaganda and untruth? Should we automate away all the jobs, including the fulfilling ones? Should we develop nonhuman minds that might eventually outnumber, outsmart, obsolete and replace us? Should we risk loss of control of our civilization?”

Other than the economically illiterate reference to “automat[ing] away all the jobs,” the warning is well-taken. AI will not Terminator-like start to hate us and attempt to exterminate mankind. It will not make us all into biological batteries, as in The Matrix. However, it will—especially when corrupted—misinform and mislead us, create chaos, and potentially make our lives “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 06:30

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