International
Three Software Investments to Buy as Technology Stocks Start to Fly
Three software investments to buy as technology stocks start to fly feature a a next-generation cyber security company, a provider of artificial intelligence…

Three software investments to buy as technology stocks start to fly feature a a next-generation cyber security company, a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation capabilities, along with a fund that focuses on companies engaged in software applications, systems and information-based services.
The three software investments to buy allow investors to tap into technology stocks that are making a comeback so far this year. Despite headwinds of inflation, tight money, a brewing banking crisis and gridlock in Washington about raising the U.S. government’s debt ceiling, the technology-tilted NASDAQ has soared 26.60% year to date.
Investors who are wary of purchasing individual software stocks may prefer a fund, said Bob Carlson, a pension fund chairman who heads the Retirement Watch investment newsletter. One such fund that Carlson said he likes is Invesco Dynamic Software (PSJ), aimed at tracking the Dynamic Software Intellidex Index that consists of approximately 30 companies engaged in businesses related to software applications, systems and information services.
PSJ Ranks Among Three Software Investments to Buy
Bob Carlson, head of Retirement Watch, meets with Paul Dykewicz.
The index is updated quarterly to incorporate factors such as price momentum, earnings momentum, quality, management action and value. The fund’s turnover ratio is more than 200%.
About 49% of the fund is in its 10 largest positions. Top holdings recently were Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: EA), Forinet (NASDAQ: FTNT), Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: AITI), Cadence Design Systems (NASDAQ: CDNS) and The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD).
PSJ lost 27.73% in 2022 but is up 11.91% so far in 2023 and 8.50% over the last 12 months. The fund also offers a modest dividend yield of 2.0%.
Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
Another fan of technology funds is Mark Skousen, PhD, an economist who serves as a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University and heads the Forecasts & Strategies investment newsletter. He recommended a technology fund in his newsletter that has climbed 27%, including dividends, so far this year.
Mark Skousen, head of Forecasts & Strategies, meets with Paul Dykewicz.
Skousen, who is a descendant of founding father, diplomat and inventor Benjamin Franklin, pointed out that the fund was heavily weighted in some of the strongest-rising technology stocks. One of those stocks is Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), a software development company in Redmond, Washington, that has jumped 34.49% so far this year.
CrowdStrike Gains Place Among Three Software Investments to Buy
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD), headquartered in Austin, Texas, is a next-generation protection, threat intelligence and services company. The company relocated from Sunnyvale, California, in December 2021, but still retains a significant business operation in Silicon Valley at its former headquarters.
CrowdStrike is considered to be a leader in cybersecurity for the endpoint market-phones and laptops. Microsoft also offers a cybersecurity solution but it is considered to be “inferior,” compared to CrowdStrike, said Michelle Connell, who heads the Dallas-based Portia Capital Management.
Even so, Microsoft’s status as a software industry “behemoth” is always a potential problem for competitors such as CrowdStrike, Connell continued. CrowdStrike’s revenue growth is expected to remain exceedingly high, with 35% growth expected in 2023, she added.
Michelle Connell heads Portia Capital Management.
“The company has 30% free cash flow margins,” Connell said. “While these are very rich, the company expects them to go even higher.”
CrowdStrike’s management is offering guidance of a 33% gain in cash flow margins this year. The company also has amassed a “huge war chest” of $2.7 billion in cash, Connell noted.
Plus, CrowdStrike’s business focus targets an area of technology that should continue to do well, no matter the economic environment, counseled Connell, who added that the company’s growth expectations are achievable.
Despite the company’s stock price advancing 37% year to date, its potential upside could be in excess of 25% during the next 18 to 24 months, Connell concluded. In addition, Connell advised dollar-cost-averaging and viewing CrowdStrike as a long-term holding.
Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
Potential risks for CrowdStrike include the possibility that its possession of what Connell called the “best solution” in the industry could change. For example, Microsoft could acquire one of CrowdStrike’s smaller competitors, improve upon the product offering and gain market share, Connell cautioned.
“There’s a valuation risk here,” Connell said. “The stocks current price may be ahead of itself. However, the long-term opportunities seem to outweigh that.”
“We believe investors may not be appreciating how large and how profitable CrowdStrike can become over the long term, based on its strong growth and operating leverage potential,” according to the Chicago-based investment William Blair, which has an “outperform” rating on the stock.
Three Software Investments to Buy Include CCCS
CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: CCCS) , a Chicago-based software as a service (SaaS) platform for the property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry, recently held an event that included more than 500 customers across stakeholder segments to highlight its broad AI and automation capabilities. Plus, CCC Intelligent Solutions hosted an investor session that addressed the company’s recent innovation and highlighted the drivers supporting its long-term business fundamentals.
“Our customer conversations continued to highlight the value proposition afforded by the CCC connected ecosystem, while management’s tone continued to highlight the capabilities of its advanced analytics platform and claims automation efforts,” wrote Dylan Becker, a William Blair equity research analyst who covers software stocks. “The investor session also included deep dives into new emerging technologies like diagnostics, Estimate-STP, casualty and subrogation.”
CCC Intelligent Solutions seems well positioned to serve its customers due to its decade-plus-long investment in AI functionality and data scale across the automotive claims’ ecosystem, which can continue to drive ongoing future innovation and automation efforts, Becker wrote in a recent research note. Overall, Becker wrote that the conference gave him incremental confidence in the company’s ability to capitalize on the automotive claims digitization opportunity, which should drive a durable combination of top-line growth and margin expansion over time.
“This unique and differentiated data drives value across all stakeholders within the connected ecosystem from repair facilities to part providers and OEMs, as well as insurers, among others,” Becker continued. “We believe this will continue to drive deeper product adoption and broader platform value as the network effect of a connected stakeholder ecosystem continues to play out. Lastly, while the company is still in the early stages of overall AI adoption, encouragingly the company has analyzed more than 14 million cumulative claims across its AI tools to date, which we believe will continue to support growing adoption and model precision from these solutions over time.”
William Blair is retaining its “outperform” rating on the stock.
Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
“CCC delivered strong first-quarter results, highlighted by 10% year-over-year revenue growth and 39% adjusted EBITDA margin,” the company announced.
The company’s “solid start” to 2023 reflects its durable business model, ongoing innovation, and continued adoption of CCC solutions that help its clients address a growing number of the business challenges facing the P&C insurance economy, said Githesh Ramamurthy, the company’s chairman and chief executive officer.
CCC Intelligent Solutions’ shares trade at roughly seven times William Blair’s calendar 2024 revenue estimate, a discount to the peer group median of nine times. On an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) basis, shares trade at 17 times the investment firm’s 2024 estimate, a discount to peers at 23 times.
“Overall, we believe the discount is unwarranted as CCC is well positioned in a resilient end-market offering mission-critical tools to drive business efficiency,” Becker wrote.
Analysis of U.S. Government Debt Ceiling Problem
The failure of the U.S. government to raise the debt ceiling thus far and risk possible default on its financial obligations would be the “ultimate gift” for China, warned the CEO and founder of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations. Nigel Green’s comments come as President Joe Biden, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders so far have been unable to successfully negotiate a heightened debt ceiling.
President Biden has been reluctant to give details about terms of possible compromise but has said he believed a deal can be reached. Democrats have demanded a “clean” increase in the ceiling without conditions to pay debts from spending and tax cuts approved by Congress. Republicans are saying they will not authorize any additional borrowing without an agreement to cut federal spending.
According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, a default may occur as soon as June 1, causing a global economic catastrophe, if the limit is not raised by Congress before then. The deVere Group CEO Green cautioned that a default would upend the global financial system and likely be “worse” than the 2008 crash.
“It would cause upheaval on an unprecedented level,” Green said.
A default would lead to a decline in the value of the U.S. dollar and a loss of confidence in the U.S. financial system, Green said. As such, investors would seek alternative destinations for their capital, he added.
“China would move to position itself as a more stable and attractive investment option, attracting more international investment and capital inflows,” Green said. “In turn, this would boost the Chinese economy and financial markets.”
CDC Halts Weekly Reports of COVID-19 Vaccinations and Cases
The COVID-19 pandemic’s public health emergency status in the United States expired on May 11, 2023, while the World Health Organization earlier this month declared an end to what it began calling a public health emergency of international concern on January 30, 2020. However, the virus keeps killing Americas each week and remains a public health threat. Even though death rates are dropping, Dr. Robert Anderson, the chief of the mortality statistics branch at the National Center for Health Statistics, warned that COVID-19 deaths could top 100,000 in 2023.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported at least one vaccination against COVID-19 and its bivalent variant has been given to 270,227,181 people, or 81.4%, of the U.S. population, as of May 10. Those who have completed the primary COVID-19 doses totaled 230,637,348 of the U.S. population, or 69.5%, according to the agency.
Also as of May 10, the United States had given a bivalent COVID-19 booster to 52,996,306 people who are age 18 and up, equaling 20.5% of America’s population. Those reports are the last weekly updates that CDC officials plan to provide after the agency called an end to the U.S. public health emergency.
Medical studies have shown COVID-19 vaccinations help keep people healthy and reduce the morbidity caused by the virus. The markets should be helped by any incremental increase in consumer confidence that aids retail shopping, travel and other spending.
Russia’s War in Ukraine Remains a Fierce Firefight
Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine poses a lingering financial threat. News from the war zone reported that Russia largely has taken control of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin reportedly plans to use the city as a transportation hub to then seize other places in Ukraine’s industrial eastern region.
However, Ukrainian forces remain in the area, largely outside the city, and could pose a challenge to uproot completely. rces, said Yevgeny Prigozhin, the private militia’s leader.
Despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky talking publicly of delaying Ukraine’s expected spring counteroffensive, his forces have made some incursions, said Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the private Wagner militia that has been doing some of Russia’s most effective fighting. Russia continues firing missiles at Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.
The three software investments to buy are on an upward trend, despite economic uncertainty, inflation, tight money, a brewing banking crisis, gridlock in Washington about raising the U.S. government’s debt ceiling and the ongoing political risk from Russia’s relentless invasion of neighboring Ukraine in violation of international law.
Paul Dykewicz, www.pauldykewicz.com, is an accomplished, award-winning journalist who has written for Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, USA Today, the Journal omf Commerce, Crain Communications, Seeking Alpha, Guru Focus and other publications and websites. Paul can be followed on Twitter @PaulDykewicz, and is the editor and a columnist at StockInvestor.com and DividendInvestor.com. He also serves as editorial director of Eagle Financial Publications in Washington, D.C. In that role, he edits monthly investment newsletters, time-sensitive trading alerts, free weekly e-letters and other reports. Previously, Paul served as business editor and a columnist at Baltimore’s Daily Record newspaper and as a reporter at the Baltimore Business Journal. Plus, Paul is the author of an inspirational book, “Holy Smokes! Golden Guidance from Notre Dame’s Championship Chaplain,” with a foreword by former national championship-winning football coach Lou Holtz. The uplifting book is endorsed by Joe Montana, Joe Theismann, Ara Parseghian, “Rocket” Ismail, Reggie Brooks, Dick Vitale and many other sports figures. To buy signed and specially dedicated copies, call 202-677-4457.
The post Three Software Investments to Buy as Technology Stocks Start to Fly appeared first on Stock Investor.
default pandemic covid-19 dow jones nasdaq stocks government debt cdc disease control congress mortality deaths russia ukraine china world health organizationInternational
‘The Official Truth’: The End Of Free Speech That Will End America
‘The Official Truth’: The End Of Free Speech That Will End America
Authored by J.B.Shurk via The Gatestone Institute,
If legacy news corporations…

Authored by J.B.Shurk via The Gatestone Institute,
If legacy news corporations fail to report that large majorities of the American public now view their journalistic product as straight-up propaganda, does that make it any less true?
According to a survey by Rasmussen Reports, 59% of likely voters in the United States view the corporate news media as "truly the enemy of the people." This is a majority view, held regardless of race: "58% of whites, 51% of black voters, and 68% of other minorities" — all agree that the mainstream media has become their "enemy."
This scorching indictment of the Fourth Estate piggybacks similar polling from Harvard-Harris showing that Americans hold almost diametrically opposing viewpoints from those that news corporations predominantly broadcast as the official "truth."
Drawing attention to the divergence between the public's perceived reality and the news media's prevailing "narratives," independent journalist Glenn Greenwald dissected the Harvard-Harris poll to highlight just how differently some of the most important issues of the last few years have been understood. While corporate news fixated on purported Trump-Russia collusion since 2016, majorities of Americans now see this story "as a hoax and a fraud."
While the news media hid behind the Intelligence Community's claims that Hunter Biden's potentially incriminating laptop (allegedly containing evidence of his family's influence-peddling) was a product of "Russian disinformation" and consequently enforced an information blackout on the explosive story during the final weeks of the 2020 presidential election, strong majorities of Americans currently believe the laptop's contents are "real." In other words, Americans have correctly concluded that journalists and spies advanced a "fraud" on voters as part of an effort to censor a damaging story and "help Biden win." Nevertheless, The New York Times and The Washington Post have yet to return the Pulitzer Prizes they received for reporting totally discredited "fake news."
Similarly, majorities of Americans suspect that President Joe Biden has used the powers of his various offices to profit from influence-peddling schemes and that the FBI has intentionally refrained from investigating any possible Biden crimes. Huge majorities of Americans, in fact, seem not at all surprised to learn that the FBI has been caught abusing its own powers to influence elections, and are strongly convinced that "sweeping reform" is needed. Likewise, large majorities of Americans have "serious doubts about Biden's mental fitness to be president" and suspect that others behind the scenes are "puppeteers" running the nation.
Few, if any, of these poll results have been widely reported. In a seemingly-authoritarian disconnect with the American people, corporate news media continue to ignore the public's majority opinion and instead "relentlessly advocate" those viewpoints that Americans "reject." When journalists fail to investigate facts and deliberately distort stories so that they fit snugly within preconceived worldviews, reporters act as propagandists.
Constitutional law scholar Jonathan Turley recently asked, "Do we have a de facto state media?" In answering his own question, he notes that the news blackout surrounding congressional investigations into Biden family members who have allegedly received more than ten million dollars in suspicious payments from foreign entities "fits the past standards used to denounce Russian propaganda patterns and practices." After Republican members of Congress traced funds to nine Biden family members "from corrupt figures in Romania, China, and other countries," Turley writes, "The New Republic quickly ran a story headlined 'Republicans Finally Admit They Have No Incriminating Evidence on Joe Biden.'"
Excoriating the news media's penchant for mindlessly embracing stories that hurt former President Donald Trump while simultaneously ignoring stories that might damage President Biden, Turley concludes:
"Under the current approach to journalism, it is the New York Times that receives a Pulitzer for a now debunked Russian collusion story rather than the New York Post for a now proven Hunter Biden laptop story."
Americans now evidently view the major sources for their news and information as part of a larger political machine pushing particular points of view, unconstrained by any ethical obligation to report facts objectively or dispassionately seek truth. That Americans now see the news media in their country as serving a similar role as Pravda did for the Soviet Union's Communist Party is a significant departure from the country's historic embrace of free speech and traditional fondness for a skeptical, adversarial press.
Rather than taking a step back to consider the implications such a shift in public perception will have for America's future stability, some officials appear even more committed to expanding government control over what can be said and debated online. After the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), in the wake of public backlash over First Amendment concerns, halted its efforts to construct an official "disinformation governance board" last year, the question remained whether other government attempts to silence or shape online information would rear their head. The wait for that answer did not take long.
The government apparently took the public's censorship concerns so seriously that it quietly moved on from the collapse of its plans for a "disinformation governance board" within the DHS and proceeded within the space of a month to create a new "disinformation" office known as the Foreign Malign Influence Center, which now operates from within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Although ostensibly geared toward countering information warfare arising from "foreign" threats, one of its principal objectives is to monitor and control "public opinion and behaviors."
As independent journalist Matt Taibbi concludes of the government's resurrected Ministry of Truth:
"It's the basic rhetorical trick of the censorship age: raise a fuss about a foreign threat, using it as a battering ram to get everyone from Congress to the tech companies to submit to increased regulation and surveillance. Then, slowly, adjust your aim to domestic targets."
If it were not jarring enough to learn that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has picked up the government's speech police baton right where the DHS set it down, there is ample evidence to suggest that officials are eager to go much further in the near future. Democrat Senator Michael Bennet has already proposed a bill that would create a Federal Digital Platform Commission with "the authority to promulgate rules, impose civil penalties, hold hearings, conduct investigations, and support research."
Filled with "disinformation" specialists empowered to create "enforceable behavioral codes" for online communication — and generously paid for by the Biden Administration with taxpayers' money — the special commission would also "designate 'systemically important digital platforms' subject to extra oversight, reporting, and regulation" requirements. Effectively, a small number of unelected commissioners would have de facto power to monitor and police online communication.
Should any particular website or platform run afoul of the government's First Amendment Star Chamber, it would immediately place itself within the commission's crosshairs for greater oversight, regulation, and punishment.
Will this new creation become an American KGB, Stasi or CCP — empowered to target half the population for disagreeing with current government policies, promoting "wrongthink," or merely going to church? Will a small secretive body decide which Americans are actually "domestic terrorists" in the making? US Attorney General Merrick Garland has gone after traditional Catholics who attend Latin mass, but why would government suspicions end with the Latin language? When small commissions exist to decide which Americans are the "enemy," there is no telling who will be designated as a "threat" and punished next.
It is not difficult to see the dangers that lie ahead. Now that the government has fully inserted itself into the news and information industry, the criminalization of free speech is a very real threat. This has always been a chief complaint against international institutions such as the World Economic Forum that spend a great deal of time, power, and money promoting the thoughts and opinions of an insular cabal of global leaders, while showing negligible respect for the personal rights and liberties of the billions of ordinary citizens they claim to represent.
WEF Chairman Klaus Schwab has gone so far as to hire hundreds of thousands of "information warriors" whose mission is to "control the Internet" by "policing social media," eliminating dissent, disrupting the public square, and "covertly seed[ing] support" for the WEF's "Great Reset." If Schwab's online army were not execrable enough, advocates for free speech must also gird themselves for the repercussions of Elon Musk's appointment of Linda Yaccarino, reportedly a "neo-liberal wokeist" with strong WEF affiliations, as the new CEO of Twitter.
Throughout much of the West, unfortunately, free speech has been only weakly protected when those with power find its defense inconvenient or messages a nuisance. It is therefore of little surprise to learn that French authorities are now prosecuting government protesters for "flipping-off" President Emmanuel Macron. It does not seem particularly astonishing that a German man has been sentenced to three years in prison for engaging in "pro-Russian" political speech regarding the war in Ukraine. It also no longer appears shocking to read that UK Technology and Science Secretary Michelle Donelan reportedly seeks to imprison social media executives who fail to censor online speech that the government might subjectively adjudge "harmful." Sadly, as Ireland continues to find new ways to punish citizens for expressing certain points of view, its movement toward criminalizing not just speech but also "hateful" thoughts should have been predictable.
From an American's perspective, these overseas encroachments against free speech — especially within the borders of closely-allied lands — have seemed sinister yet entirely foreign. Now, however, what was once observed from some distance has made its way home; it feels as if a faraway communist enemy has finally stormed America's beaches and come ashore in force.
Not a day seems to go by without some new battlefront opening up in the war on free speech and free thought. The Richard Stengel of the Council on Foreign Relations has been increasingly vocal about the importance of journalists and think tanks to act as "primary provocateurs" and "propagandists" who "have to" manipulate the American population and shape the public's perception of world events. Senator Rand Paul has alleged that the DHS uses at least 12 separate programs to "track what Americans say online," as well as to engage in social media censorship.
As part of its efforts to silence dissenting arguments, the Biden administration is pursuing a policy that would make it unlawful to use data and datasets that reflect accurate information yet lead to "discriminatory outcomes" for "protected classes." In other words, if the data is perceived to be "racist," it must be expunged. At the same time, the Department of Justice has indicted four radical black leftists for having somehow "weaponized" their free speech rights in support of Russian "disinformation." So, objective datasets can be deemed "discriminatory" against minorities, while actual discrimination against minorities' free speech is excused when that speech contradicts official government policy.
Meanwhile, the DHS has been exposed for paying tens of millions of dollars to third-party "anti-terrorism" programs that have not so coincidentally equated Christians, Republicans, and philosophical conservatives to Germany's Nazi Party. Similarly, California Governor Gavin Newsom has set up a Soviet-style "snitch line" that encourages neighbors to report on each other's public or private displays of "hate."
Finally, ABC News proudly admits that it has censored parts of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s interviews because some of his answers include "false claims about the COVID-19 vaccines." Essentially, the corporate news media have deemed Kennedy's viewpoints unworthy of being transmitted and heard, even though the 2024 presidential candidate is running a strong second behind Joe Biden in the Democrat primary, with around 20% support from the electorate.
Taken all together, it is clear that not only has the war on free speech come to America, but also that it is clobbering Americans in a relentless campaign of "shock and awe." And why not? In a litigation battle presently being waged over the federal government's extensive censorship programs, the Biden administration has defended its inherent authority to control Americans' thoughts as an instrumental component of "government infrastructure." What Americans think and believe is openly referred to as part of the nation's "cognitive infrastructure" — as if the Matrix movies were simply reflecting real life.
Today, America's mainstream news corporations are already viewed as processing plants that manufacture political propaganda. That is an unbelievably searing indictment of a once-vibrant free press in the United States. It is also, unfortunately, only the first heavy shoe to drop in the war against free speech. Many Chinese-Americans who survived the Cultural Revolution look around the country today and see similarities everywhere. During that totalitarian "reign of terror," everything a person did was monitored, including what was said while asleep.
In an America now plagued with the stench of official "snitch lines," censorship of certain presidential candidates, widespread online surveillance, a resurrected "disinformation governance board," and increasingly frequent criminal prosecutions targeting Americans who exercise their free speech, the question is not whether what we inaudibly think or say in our sleep will someday be used against us, but rather how soon that day will come unless we stop it. After all, with smartphones, smart TVs, "smart" appliances, video-recording doorbells, and the rise of artificial intelligence, somebody, somewhere is always listening.
International
Never Short a Dull Market; AI is Sexy, But Everyone Hates Oil
There’s an old adage of Wall Street, which says: "never short a dull market." And while AI is getting all the press these days, the oil market is about…

There's an old adage of Wall Street, which says: "never short a dull market." And while AI is getting all the press these days, the oil market is about as dull as it gets. This, of course, brings the energy sector to the top of my contrarian alert list.
This is not to say that I'm buying oil-related assets with both hands. It just means that, at this point, it makes more sense to look at energy as a value asset, as it is oversold and ripe for a move up whenever the right set of variables required to deliver such a move line up just right.
In the current world, the variables could line up just right as early as today.
There are No Oil Bulls Left
Nobody loves oil.
The level of bearishness expressed by futures traders is at least equal to where it was during the pandemic, and after the Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) collapse. The International Energy Agency (IEA), forecasts that, of the expected $2.8 trillion in energy investments for 2023, roughly $1.7 trillion will be allocated to low carbon energy sources, including nuclear, solar, and other potential sources. Only $1.1 trillion will be invested in fossil fuels.
And according to the Financial Times, auctioneers in Texas are trying to unload two brand new fracking rigs, which together cost $70 million, for a starting combined bid of just below $17 million.
Supply is the Primary Influence on Oil Prices
Meanwhile, oil companies are quietly merging with competitors, and exploration outside the United States is continuing aggressively, with new discoveries being frequently announced.
Simultaneously, the U.S. active rig count is slowly falling, led by natural gas. The price of gasoline is steadily rising, as the market begins to price in future supply reductions. Just in my neck of the woods, regular unleaded is up some $0.32 in the last week alone.
That doesn't sound like an industry that's planning on fading away. It sounds like an industry that's hunkering down and waiting for better times and preparing to squeeze supply in order to boost prices.
Charting the Oil Sector
The price chart for West Texas Intermediate Crude, the U.S. benchmark (WTIC), shows the depressed price picture which has led investors to walk away. And, until proven otherwise, there are plenty of sellers at the $75-$80 price area, where a sizeable Volume by Price bar highlights the point of resistance.
At first glance, there little difference in the general price behavior for Brent Crude, the European benchmark. (BRENT) where there is a resistance band defined by VBP bars between $80 and $90. A closer look reveals an uptick in Accumulation Distribution (ADI) and the semblance of some nibbling in On Balance Volume (OBV). It's subtle, but it's there.
The oil stocks are far from a bull trend. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is trading below its 200-day moving average, facing resistance put from $78 to $90 (VBP bars).
So why bother? Simply stated, OPEC has an upcoming meeting on June 3-4. The cartel is not happy about the prices and the way things are evolving. The Saudi oil minister recently warned bearish speculators to "watch out." And my gut is doing flips when I think about oil, as I see gasoline prices creep up when I drive to work.
But mostly, it's because there are no oil bulls left. This is what we saw in the technology sector a few months ago before its current rally. In early 2023, the tech sector was pronounced dead. The stories were all about the technology sector shuddering as the economy slowed. How about this one, from March 2023, which breathlessly announced a 5.2% decrease in semiconductor sales on a month to month basis and an 18.5% year to year drop?
Yet, as validated by the recent AI-fueled rally, the bad news first marked a bottom, while preceding a significant move up in tech shares.
Never short a dull market.
I've recently recommended several energy sector picks. You can have a look at them with a free trial to my service. In addition, I've posted a Special Report on the oil market which you can gain access to here.
Bond and Mortgage Roller Coaster Reverses Course
Expect negative news about the effect of rising mortgage rates on the homebuilder industry. That's because, as the chart below illustrates, there is a tight and very close correlation between rising bond yields, mortgage rates, and the homebuilder stocks (SPHB).
Moreover, the rise above 3.75% on the U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) has triggered headlines about mortgage rates climbing above 7%. What the news isn't reporting is that, once bond yields roll over, which they are likely to do at some point in the future when the economy shows more signs of slowing and the Fed finally admits that they must pause, is that mortgage rates will drop and demand for new homes will once again pick up. Thus, we will see the homebuilders pick up where they left off.
As things stood last week, SPHB seems to have made a short term bottom.
For now, expect a continuation of the backing and filling in the homebuilder stocks. But, if I'm right and bond yields reverse course, the homebuilders are likely to rally again.
For an in-depth comprehensive outlook on the homebuilder sector click here.
NYAD Holds Above 200-Day Moving Average. SPX Joins NDX in Breaking Out. Liquidity is Shrinking.
The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) tested its 200-day moving average on an intra-week basis but did not break below the key technical level. On the other hand, NYAD remained below its 50-day moving average, which is still an intermediate-term negative.
Moreover, with the major indexes (see below) breaking out to new highs, we remain in a technical divergence as the market's breadth is lagging the action in the indexes. This is of some concern, given the fade in the market's liquidity, as I point out below.
The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) extended its recent breakout, closing the week well above 14,200. The current move is unsustainable, so some sort of pullback and consolidation are likely over the next few days to weeks. Both ADI and OBV remain encouraging.
What's more bullish is that the S&P 500 (SPX) finally broke out above the 4100–4200 trading range on 5/24/23. On Balance Volume (OBV) is perking up while the Accumulation Distribution (ADI) indicator is very encouraging.
We may be seeing a shift from a short-covering rally to a fear-of-missing-out buyer's rally.
VIX Holds Steady
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remained below 20, as it has since March 2023. This remains a positive for the markets, as it shows short sellers are staying away at the moment.
When the VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.
Liquidity is Getting Squeezed
The market's liquidity is now in a downtrend. The Eurodollar Index (XED) is now below 94.5, and looks weak. A move above 95 will be a bullish development. Usually, a stable or rising XED is very bullish for stocks.
To get the latest up-to-date information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!
#1 New Release on Options Trading!
Good news! I've made my NYAD-Complexity - Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.
Joe Duarte
In The Money Options
Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.
The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.
To receive Joe's exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.
sp 500 nasdaq stocks pandemic fed mortgage rates etf oil europeanInternational
Costco Tells Americans the Truth About Inflation and Price Increases
The warehouse club has seen some troubling trends but it’s also trumpeting something positive that most retailers wouldn’t share.

Costco has been a refuge for customers during both the pandemic and during the period when supply chain and inflation issues have driven prices higher. In the worst days of the covid pandemic, the membership-based warehouse club not only had the key household items people needed, it also kept selling them at fair prices.
With inflation -- no matter what the reason for it -- Costco (COST) - Get Free Report worked aggressively to keep prices down. During that period (and really always) CFO Richard Galanti talked about how his company leaned on vendors to provide better prices while sometimes also eating some of the increase rather than passing it onto customers.
DON'T MISS: Why You May Not Want to Fly Southwest Airlines
That wasn't an altruistic move. Costco plays the long game, and it focuses on doing whatever is needed to keep its members happy in order to keep them renewing their memberships.
It's a model that has worked spectacularly well, according to Galanti.
"In terms of renewal rates, at third quarter end, our US and Canada renewal rate was 92.6%, and our worldwide rate came in at 90.5%. These figures are the same all-time high renewal rates that were achieved in the second quarter, just 12 weeks ago here," he said during the company's third-quarter earnings call.
Galanti, however, did report some news that suggests that significant problems remain in the economy.
Image source: Xinhua/Ting Shen via Getty Images
Costco Does See Some Economic Weakness
When people worry about the economy, they sometimes trade down when it comes to retailers. Walmart executives (WMT) - Get Free Report, for example, have talked about seeing more customers that earn six figures shopping in their stores.
Costco has always had a diverse customer base, but one weakness in its business may be a warning sign for its rivals like Target (TGT) - Get Free Report, Best Buy (BBY) - Get Free Report, and Amazon (AMZN) - Get Free Report. Galanti broke down some of the numbers during the call.
"Traffic or shopping frequency remains pretty good, increasing 4.8% worldwide and 3.5% in the U.S. during the quarter," he shared.
People shopped more, but they were also spending less, according to the CFO.
"Our average daily transaction or ticket was down 4.2% worldwide and down 3.5% in the U.S., impacted, in large part, from weakness in bigger-ticket nonfood discretionary items," he shared.
Now, not buying a new TV, jewelry, or other big-ticket items could just be a sign that consumers are being cautious. But, if they're not buying those items at Costco (generally the lowest-cost option) that does not bode well for other retailers.
Galanti laid out the numbers as well as how they broke down between digital and warehouse.
"You saw in the release that e-commerce was a minus 10% sales decline on a comp basis," he said. "As I discussed on our second quarter call and in our monthly sales recordings, in Q3, big-ticket discretionary departments, notably majors, home furnishings, small electrics, jewelry, and hardware, were down about 20% in e-com and made up 55% of e-com sales. These same departments were down about 17% in warehouse, but they only make up 8% in warehouse sales."
Costco's CFO Also Had Good News For Shoppers
Galanti has been very open about sharing information about the prices Costco has seen from vendors. He has shared in the past, for example, that the chain does not pass on gas price increases as fast as they happen nor does it lower prices as quick as they sometimes fall.
In the most recent call, he shared some very good news on inflation (that also puts pressure on Target, Walmart, and Amazon to lower prices).
"A few comments on inflation. Inflation continues to abate somewhat. If you go back a year ago to the fourth quarter of '22 last summer, we had estimated that year-over-year inflation at the time was up 8%. And by Q1 and Q2, it was down to 6% and 7% and then 5% and 6%," he shared. "In this quarter, we're estimating the year-over-year inflation in the 3% to 4% range."
The CFO also explained that he sees prices dropping on some very key consumer staples.
"We continue to see improvements in many items, notably food items like nuts, eggs and meat, as well as items that include, as part of their components, commodities like steel and resins on the nonfood side," he added.
commodities pandemic canada
-
International8 hours ago
‘The Official Truth’: The End Of Free Speech That Will End America
-
Government22 hours ago
President Biden & House Speaker Kevin McCarthy Agree On Tentative Debt Deal To Avert Default
-
Spread & Containment19 hours ago
In This “Age of Funemployment,” Is a Recession Possible?
-
International21 hours ago
Costco Shares Some Really Good News For Shoppers
-
Government16 hours ago
‘Kevin Caved’: McCarthy Savaged Over Debt Ceiling Deal
-
Government19 hours ago
“Hard Pass”: Here’s What’s In The Debt Ceiling Deal Republicans Are About To Nuke
-
Government15 hours ago
Under Pressure From Fat Activists, NYC Bans Weight Discrimination
-
International14 hours ago
Costco Tells Americans the Truth About Inflation and Price Increases