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This Week in Apps: Twitter’s crazy week drives social apps’ growth, Google expands user choice billing

This Week in Apps offers a way to keep up with this fast-moving industry in one place with the latest from the world of apps.
This Week in Apps: Twitter’s…

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Welcome back to This Week in Apps, the weekly TechCrunch series that recaps the latest in mobile OS news, mobile applications and the overall app economy.

Global app spending reached $65 billion in the first half of 2022, up only slightly from the $64.4 billion during the same period in 2021, as hypergrowth fueled by the pandemic has slowed down. But overall, the app economy is continuing to grow, having produced a record number of downloads and consumer spending across both the iOS and Google Play stores combined in 2021, according to the latest year-end reports. Global spending across iOS and Google Play last year was $133 billion, and consumers downloaded 143.6 billion apps.

This Week in Apps offers a way to keep up with this fast-moving industry in one place with the latest from the world of apps, including news, updates, startup fundings, mergers and acquisitions, and much more.

Do you want This Week in Apps in your inbox every Saturday? Sign up here: techcrunch.com/newsletters

Top Stories

It’s a Twitter dumpster fire and I can’t look away

Image Credits: Cloudytronics (opens in a new window) / Getty Images

Where to even begin? This week Twitter became one of the most chaotic, most disastrous social networks in history — and arguably, also the most interesting, in a sort of rubbernecking kind of way. There was something new taking place either on the platform directly or within the company itself at nearly every minute.

In just a handful of days since Musk’s takeover, Twitter has seen the following:

One can argue that Musk was right to take a new approach at Twitter, which was losing money and failing to grow its user base. Coming in with fresh ideas and swapping out the executive team isn’t that unusual in a takeover, nor are widespread layoffs when a company is in financial trouble. New product experimentation is also to be expected. And revamping Twitter Blue, which has so far failed to attract subscribers, makes sense too.

But it’s not the what that’s the issue here, really — it’s the how. Musk clearly had not thought through the impact of his changes and he laid off people who could have offered deeper insight. His move to immediately make deep cuts across Twitter (after weird ideas about code reviews, apparently), meant he missed the opportunity to actually listen to current staff who could explain what Twitter has tried, what’s failed and why they’re doing the things they are. Even if Musk disagreed with Twitter’s current direction, those understandings could be used to better inform his future decisions.

Instead, he’s approached Twitter as a toy to be played with, saying even “Twitter will do lots of dumb things in coming months.” And it already has.

Living up to its promise, the first project Twitter landed on saw it reinventing the wheel.

Musk, having only perceived the value of a blue Verified badge as a status symbol, believed a wide swath of Twitter users would pay for the privilege of owning one. What he didn’t understand (unlike most of Twitter’s user base), is that Verification is actually a service the platform provides its community, not just an ego-pleasing checkmark. In fact, many of those with the original badge don’t see it as a status symbol, and wouldn’t pay for the “honor” of having one. Instead, the original blue badge was a way to quickly see that someone is who they claim to be or that they’re a trusted source of news and information.

Musk, on the other hand, thinks “citizen journalists” and everyday folks (or as he likes to call them, “peasants“) deserve some sort of verification, too. Which is…well, okay, he’s free to have that opinion and test it out as a paid product after spending $44 billion on this thing, I guess. (We don’t have space to talk about his misunderstandings around citizen journalism right now!)

But it could have been implemented in a different way — perhaps as a verified badge of a different shade or symbol, or even just as a system that would boost Twitter Blue subscribers’ tweets and replies on the platform above the non-paying users. After all, this is the core value Musk envisions for Twitter Blue, believing this is what would appeal to subscribers. Not to mention, such a system would make sense to test, given that it’s one that’s already been proven to work elsewhere. Paid elevation is a monetization lever other social networks utilize — like YouTube and Instagram, where products like YouTube’s Super Chat and IG Badges allow people to have their posts highlighted above others.

Twitter’s twist could have been that paid elevation like this wouldn’t necessarily be about getting the attention of top creators, per se, but would gain subscribers entry into everyone’s Verified tab or at least bumped to the top of the “All” notifications tab. Or, a secondary filter on the Verified tab could allow people to toggle on or off the visibility of “official” accounts, addressing complaints that the Verified tab is now no longer useful when checkmarks are for sale.

What a great thing this would have been to A/B test with a small percentage of the audience before fully diving in! But alas.

Rather than moving forward more thoughtfully, Musk simply trashed the existing Verification program — and without seemingly foreseeing the potential for widespread abuse. He then retroactively realized that identifying “Official” accounts had value for the wider community and for those who wanted a certain type of experience in the Verified tab itself.

His haphazard leadership led to new products launching, being shut off, then relaunching in a matter of hours and days. As a result, Twitter became a dumpster fire of sorts — and one that could have been avoided if Musk simply listened and learned before acting.

Google Play rolls out User Choice Billing more broadly, Epic Games’ Tim Sweeney trashes it as a ‘sham’

illustration of Google Play Store logo

Image Credits: SOPA Images / Contributor / Getty Images

Google announced it’s expanding its user choice billing pilot, which allows Android app developers to use other payment systems besides Google’s own. The program will now become available to new markets, including the U.S., Brazil and South Africa, and Bumble will now join Spotify as one of the pilot testers.

The company first announced its intention to launch a third-party billing option back in March of this year, with Spotify as the initial tester. Now, Spotify says it will begin rolling out its implementation of this program with Google’s blessing.

The user choice billing program has steadily expanded over the course of the year. Last month, for example, Google invited non-game developers to apply for the user choice billing program in select markets, including India, Australia, Indonesia, Japan and the European Economic Area (EEA). The company also introduced a similar policy for developers in the EEA region in July, but the new guidelines raised the commission discount from 3% to 4% for developers who opted in. With today’s expansion, user choice billing will be made available to 35 countries worldwide.

Google says it’s been working with Spotify to help develop the experience and now the streaming music service will begin to put the new features into action in supported markets. The experience could still change over time, Google warned, as this is still the early days of the pilot test. In addition, Bumble has now joined Google to test user choice billing in its own app, with plans to roll out the options to users in select countries in the coming months.

It’s not clear what sort of deal Spotify and Bumble have received as Spotify won’t say beyond noting it meets the company’s standards of fairness.

In the meantime, not all developers think the deal is a good one.

Epic Games CEO Tim Sweeney, who is suing both Apple and Google for alleged monopolistic practices, called the new system a sham as Google still takes 26% of the revenue — a reference to the 4% discount for switching to another payment provider.

“This is Google’s dishonest attempt to thwart EU and Korean regulators by feigning compliance with their new rules for billing competition, while still collecting their monopoly rent and rendering competing payment services non-viable,” Sweeney wrote.

Mastodon and others gain in wake of Twitter chaos

The drama at Twitter has seen some users looking for an exit. In recent days, alternative social and microblogging platforms have seen strong gains, including, most notably, the open source decentralized Twitter alternative Mastodon. The service’s founder and CEO recently announced Mastodon had topped 1 million monthly active users, as more than half a million users joined the network since October 27.

App intelligence firm Sensor Tower noted Mastodon has seen approximately 322,000 installs from U.S. app stores in the 12 days following the acquisition (October 27 through November 7), which is more than 100 times the 3,000 it saw in the prior 12-day period. Globally, the app grew 657% to 1 million installs during that same October 27-November 7 time frame, up from 15,000 in the 12 days prior.

Other third-party Mastodon clients saw a bump, too, with Metatext and Tootle both growing from less than 1,000 installs to 19,000 and 7,000, respectively, between the two periods.

But Mastodon isn’t the only network seeing an uptick in installs, as it turns out.

Tumblr also saw its U.S. installs grow 96% from 47,000 to 92,000 between the two timeframes and saw global installs grow 77% from 170,000 to 301,000.

Image Credits: Sensor Tower

Alternative social app CounterSocial also grew 2,300% to 24,000 installs in U.S. app stores in the 12 days following the acquisition, and grew 3,200% globally, with 33,000 installs.

Another app intelligence firm, data.ai, sliced the data in a different way. It examined various social apps’ worldwide download growth during a seven-day period following the acquisition (October 27 through November 2), then compared that with the prior seven-day period. Its data also confirmed the sizable gains made by Mastodon and CounterSocial in terms of global install increases between the two timeframes. Mastodon’s installs jumped 2,200% and CounterSocial’s grew 1,200%.

Data.ai saw a number of other social apps seeing bumps, as well, beyond direct Twitter alternatives. This included David’s Disposable (up 83%), nFollowers (up 50%), CocoFun (up 46%), Substack Reader (up 24%), Tribel (up 11%), Tumblr (up 7%) and Pinterest (up 2%).

Read more about this here.

Weekly News

Platforms: Apple

  • Apple is planning to launch its Emergency SOS with Satellite in November. The service will see the tech giant paying $405 million to the U.S. companies enabling the feature, with the majority going to Globalstar.
  • A change in the iOS 16.1.1 update will now restrict the “Everyone” option in AirDrop to 10 minutes on iPhones purchased in mainland China. Apple said it is improving the AirDrop experience by automatically reverting the receiving setting back to “Contacts Only” after 10 minutes to help mitigate unwanted file sharing.
  • Apple rolled out the ability for users in Colorado to store their driver’s license or state ID in the Apple Wallet app. The feature has only rolled out to select states so far, including Arizona and Maryland, though Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Utah are signed up.
  • Apple released the second developer betas for iOS 16.2, iPadOS 16.2, tvOS 16.2 and watchOS 9.2.
  • Apple is said to be working on a Custom Accessibility Mode for iOS 16.2, beta 2, codenamed Clarity, that will make the iPhone and iPad’s interface more user-friendly for those who find it overly complicated today. (Could be a good tool for a tech-unsavvy grandma or grandpa, it seems.)
  • Apple is reportedly working on simplifying its voice assistant trigger from “Hey Siri” to just “Siri,” said Bloomberg.
  • Apple launched another week of its Ask Apple developer series, where developers can connect directly with Apple experts in one-on-one consultations and group Q&As. This latest series will run from November 14 to 18 across time zones.

Image Credits: Apple

Platforms: Google

  • Google is now allowing users to preview its newly redesigned Google Home app for iOS and Android. The new app lets you favorite devices, run automation (coming), enable new triggers for routines and more.
  • Google released the public beta of the new Android Auto UI, first announced at Google I/O. Some of the notable changes in this release include: the map will now be closer to the driver in the new dashboard with improved size and reachability; the dashboard media card has a completely new look and now grows and shrinks dynamically; the map fills the entire Android Auto area; a new app dock in the rail makes it easier to switch between recent apps; more Material You and modernized UI; music and media recommendations from Google Assistant can be accessed with a swipe of the dashboard media card; and it consolidates the old status icons and notification center bell into one tappable area on the rail that includes the number of unread messages.

Fintech

  • The world’s once-third-largest crypto exchange, FTX, was struggling to stay alive after a bailout deal with Binance failed this week. Sam Bankman-Fried began winding down trading firm Alameda Research and was attempting to raise liquidity for FTX International after the FTX exchange experienced a liquidity crunch. Those efforts didn’t pan out and on Friday, FTX announced it was filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the U.S. About 130 additional affiliated companies — including FTX US and Alameda Research — also began the bankruptcy process.

Social

  • Meta announced massive layoffs of 13% of its workforce, or 11,000 people, following Twitter’s layoffs of half its workforce, or 7,500 people after Elon Musk’s takeover. Meta employees will receive 16 weeks of severance pay, plus two extra weeks for each year of service, and six months of health insurance. Meta announced its first-ever quarterly decline in June, and saw its revenue decline again in Q3.
  • Reddit launched a “community muting” feature that lets users mute an entire community on the platform. After muting, posts from that specific community will be removed from the user’s notifications, Home feed and Popular feed. The new feature is launching on Reddit’s mobile apps over the next few weeks and will later expand to the desktop.
  • Instagram rolled out an in-app scheduling tool to all professional accounts. The tool allows creators and businesses to schedule posts in advance without having to use third-party apps or Creator Studio.

Photos/Creativity

Pinterest's new app, Shuffles, examples displayed on smaretphones

Image Credits: Pinterest

  • Pinterest’s new collage-making app Shuffles is now available to the public in select markets, after starting off as an invite-only app earlier this summer. Users can add their own photos or those from Pinterest boards to their collages as image cutouts. Shuffles grew in popularity with Gen Z users, who used the creative expression tool to make “aesthetic” collages, sometimes set to music and posted to TikTok, or shared privately with friends or the Shuffles community. The app is still considered a test, Pinterest says.
  • Amazon Photos finally updated its Android app a year after the iOS version was redesigned. The new design is more modern with a focus on improved navigation, sharing, search and more. With a swipe up, you can access tools to filter photos by object, place or year. Prime members are offered unlimited full-res photo storage and 5GB of video storage.
  • Popular third-party camera app Halide updated to version 2.10, which brought a 2X zoom to iPhone 14 Pro users, plus updates to Depth mode, a 48/12MP quick toggle and more.

Messaging

Image Credits: Telegram

  • Telegram added several new features, including Collectible Usernames secured on the TON blockchain, voice-to-text for video messages new emoji packs, a redesign night mode on iOS, resizing text on Android, topics in groups and more. The company also threw shade at Apple for the update’s delay, writing it took two weeks for the update to be approved. Founder Pavel Durov added in a post, “Apple claims they review apps within 24 hours, but, in our experience, it takes at least 7-10 days for any meaningful product update to reach the App Store.”
  • Signal launched a Stories feature on iOS and Android. The feature lets users share Stories that expire after 24 hours, much like other social apps. Users can choose who can see their Stories — which can be everyone in your phone’s contact list who uses Signal, anyone you’ve had a one-on-one conversation with in Signal or anyone whose message request you’ve accepted. The company plans to release Stories on the desktop soon.

Signal's new Stories feature

Image Credits: Signal

Streaming & Entertainment

  • Spotify redesigned its Apple Watch app with larger artwork, smoother animations and several new features. It’s now easier to see and select individual tracks and episodes from any playlist, podcast, artist or album directly on your watch, and you can swipe to “like” tracks and toggle shuffle mode “on” or “off ” before you start playing. Podcast pages have a new look too, and new episodes will be highlighted with a blue dot. Paying subscribers can also now download favorite songs, albums and playlists directly from the Watch app itself instead of using the mobile app, as before.
  • All three major music labels — UMG, Sony and Warner — are asking TikTok to pay them a share of its ad revenues, hoping to reach a deal before their existing deals expire in the coming months, Bloomberg reported. The news comes at a bad time for TikTok, which is said to be cutting its revenue projections for 2022 to $10 billion, down from the $12-14.5 billion it had previously predicted, the FT said.
  • TikTok also overhauled its U.S. operations after an advertising slump, which included moving GM Sandie Hawkins to TikTok Shop, per the FT.
  • YouTube announced it surpassed 80 million YouTube Music and Premium subscribers globally, including customers using free trials, representing a year-over-year increase of 30 million subscribers.
  • YouTube launched Shorts on TV to global users. The feature will require a smart TV from 2019 or later, a newer gaming console or a streaming device. The videos themselves can be found on the new Shorts shelf on the homepage of the YouTube app or on a creator’s channel page. It also added a “Live Q&A” feature to make it easier for fans and viewers to interact during livestreams.
  • Disney said it now has 235.7 million global subscribers, above Netflix’s 223.1 million. Disney+ had 164.2 million, Hulu accounted for 47.2 million and ESPN+ had 24 million.
  • Giphy launched its first connected TV app with GIPHY Arts for Roku. The app brings short-form video content made by artists to the big screen in select markets.

Gaming

  • Nintendo and mobile games company DeNA are forming a joint venture company called Nintendo Systems that will aim to “strengthen the digitization of Nintendo’s business” and create “value-added services to further reinforce Nintendo’s relationship with customers,” Nintendo said. The two have worked together on a handful of titles, including Super Mario Run, Fire Emblem Heroes, Animal Crossing: Pocket Camp, Mario Kart Tour, Miitomo and Pokémon Masters.
  • Netflix is bringing back the “Stranger Things: Puzzle Tales” game with new gameplay based on the content from Season 4 of the show. The app was originally released in 2021 but was removed from the App Store and Play Store in August after Netflix acquired the game’s publisher for $72 million.

Dating

  • Motto, a new app for gay and queer hookups and casual dating, hailing from Grindr founder Joel Simkhai and Alex Hostetler, launched in New York City.

Travel & Transportation

  • Airbnb said it will refine its search to show users’ charges inclusive of fees — like cleaning fees. The company will roll out this feature through a toggle next month and will also prioritize the total charges for your trip in search instead of the nightly price. The move comes as Airbnb customers are growing increasingly angry about hosts’ excessive cleaning fees, particularly when they’re being asked to do much of the cleaning themselves. But the company doesn’t have a policy on what hosts can ask — just a suggestion for them to be reasonable.

Security & Privacy

  • New research indicates Apple is collecting data about iPhone app usage even when users set the iPhone Analytics setting to off. When off, the message says it will “disable the sharing of Device Analytics altogether.” However, two app developers and security researchers found that the setting had no impact on Apple’s own data collection in its apps — including the App Store, Apple Music, Apple TV, Book and Stocks. In fact, the App Store was collecting data about everything users did like what you tapped on, searched for, the ads you saw, how long you looked at an app and more.
  • Western security advisors are warning delegates to the COP27 climate summit not to download Egypt’s climate summit Android app, which they say could be used to spy on emails, texts and voice conversations, according to Politico.

Funding and M&A

Paris-based photo-editing app PhotoRoom raised $19 million in Series A funding led by Balderton Capital for its app that allows users to quickly remove the background from photos of objects so e-commerce listings look more professional. The app has 7 million MAUs and plans to add generative AI.

Mem, an app that uses AI to organize notes, raised $23.5 million in funding led by the OpenAI Startup Fund, valuing the startup at $110 million. The app’s workflow revolves around search and a chronological timeline, and lets users attach topic tags, tag other users and add recurring reminders to notes. Mem is available across desktop and mobile, and has raised $29 million to date.

Seattle-based BrightCanary raised $4 million in seed funding led by Trilogy Equity Partners for its app that helps parents track their children’s activity on services like YouTube, Instagram and TikTok.

Travel app Hopper raised $96 million in follow-on investment from Capital One, bringing the company’s total raise to $740 million. Capital One led Hopper’s Series F and will now work with the company to create new travel products aimed at Capital One customers.

Game engine maker Unity and adtech company ironSource completed their merger in a $4.4 billion all-stock deal. Unity’s stock is down around 75% and ironSource’s stock is down ~50% year-to-date. Both Unity and ironSource were impacted by Apple’s ATT and believed pooling their resources could help them address their declines. Unity earlier rejected an offer by AppLovin.

African super app Yassir raised $150 million in Series B funding for its platform offering ride-hailing, food and grocery delivery, and payments. The funding was led by Mary Meeker’s Bond. Yassir has raised $193.25 million since its 2017 founding.

Car rental app Kyte raised $60 million in Series B funding, led by InterAlpen Partners. The company now has access to a few thousand cars across 14 cities and is looking to expand. The startup to date has raised $300 million in both equity and debt.

Downloads

Pineapple

Pineapple app

Image Credits: Pineapple

TechCrunch’s Aisha Malik this week reviewed the launch of Pineapple, a new iOS app that aims to offer Gen Z users a new professional networking platform that relies on visual stories. The app allows users to create profiles that are a cross between LinkedIn and Instagram and showcase the user’s experience, projects and more using visuals. Users can also join Communities to connect with other members around topics and engage in thread conversations called “Jams.”

Pineapple feels TikTok-inspired with a main For You type of page where users keep up with their connections. The app has raised $1.1 million in a pre-seed round, which included investors like F7 Ventures, 500 Global,  Bradley Horowitz (VP of product at Google) and Julie Zhou (former VP of design at Facebook).

Apple’s Freeform

Image Credits: Apple

Though not yet launched to the public, Apple’s new whiteboarding app, Freefrom, is now available in the iOS 16.2 and macOS 13.1 betas. TechCrunch’s Ivan Mehta took the app for a spin this week, testing out its ability to use multiple media formats — like text, images, videos, notes, docs and more — all in one space and collaborate with others. The app may not replace professional tools like Figma, but could be useful for everyday design tasks, including things like event planning, home redesigns, journaling, making charts and more.

 

This Week in Apps: Twitter’s crazy week drives social apps’ growth, Google expands user choice billing by Sarah Perez originally published on TechCrunch

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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