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There Will Be No “Next” Bank Collapse

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There Will Be No “Next” Bank Collapse
It got bumpy out there all of a sudden. Although I was surprised that Silicon Valley Bancorp…

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Investors Alley
There Will Be No “Next” Bank Collapse

It got bumpy out there all of a sudden.

Although I was surprised that Silicon Valley Bancorp (SIVB) lit the fuse, I am not shocked that something blew up. Every time the Federal Reserve has a rate increase cycle, something blows up.

Signature Bank (SBNY) and Silvergate, on the other hand, were not that much of a surprise, as I have been highly critical of all things crypto for a long time.

What I am surprised by is the cries of contagion and fraud surrounding the SIVB blow-up. Silicon Valley Bank made a bet that rates would remain low. It was stupid, but not fraudulent.

Here’s why there’ll be no mass bank crisis.

But if you’re worried, and want to wait this out, here’s how to do that safely while scoring big yields…

A rare set of circumstances specifically related to early-stage venture capital companies and social media panic led to the deposit run that blew up SIVB.

The clickbait crew has been out in full force. I have seen lists of 20 banks that will fail next, containing some of the strongest banks in the United States. People who know nothing about banking are taking data from the headlines and trying to pinpoint the next Silicon Valley Bancorp situation.

There is no next – it was a unique situation.

Anything next will be caused by social media-inspired panic.

On Wednesday, we got some add-on fear from Swiss bank and perennial source of drama Credit Suisse Group AG (CS), when its biggest investor, Saudi National Bank, announced it would not be injecting more capital into the struggling institution.

Again, this is no surprise. I have been negative on the Swiss bank for a long time.

Last year I sent around a report on European banks to buy. Credit Suisse was not on the list.

Management has done so much wrong I would be hard-pressed to think of a single positive comment about Credit Suisse. Its troubles should have little to no impact on a community bank in the middle of America. These banks have been selling off anyway.

So have real estate investment trusts (REITs), business development companies (BDCs), insurance companies, and even energy stocks.

As an aggressive and patient investor, I am buying selected banks that pass my stringent criteria and adding to my stake in financially solid REITs.

Energy stocks and other companies with strong fundamental conditions are also being considered.

I might be making different choices if I were 10 or 15 years older. People more concerned about the return of capital than the return on capital, and those that value a high sleep-tight factor, might look towards the corporate bond market. BB+ and BBB bonds offer a very attractive combination of yield and safety right now.

Prices may fluctuate while you own the bonds, but as long as the company does not fail, you get back full face value at maturity.

Most of the bonds I am tracking trade at less than face value. The bonus here is that if the Fed does start lowering rates before your bonds mature, you could see double-digit price gains on top of the interest payments.

Vici Properties Inc. (VICI) owns one of the largest portfolios of casinos and gaming-related properties in the United States, and produces huge cash flows. Even during the coronavirus pandemic shutdowns, Vici never missed a payment. The REIT has bonds due in each of the next three years that will yield more than 6% if held to maturity.

Advanced Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) has been in business for 95 years. It is a safe bet they will be around to make good on their bonds maturing in 2026 and 2029. The yields range from 5 to 5.5%.

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) has bonds available, yielding anywhere from 6 to 7.5% over the next decade.

Radian Group Inc. (RDN), one of the four major mortgage insurance companies left, has bonds that mature in 2028, with a yield to maturity of 7.5%.

Right now, the developing opportunity in financial assets is extraordinary. I talked to a collection of investors and bankers nationwide this week, and they are all excited and active buyers of banks and REITs.

For many people, however, there is a time when being risk-averse and clipping coupons makes a lot of sense. BB-and-above bonds represent an opportunity to lock up high yield for several years.

You still have a potential kicker if the Fed begins lowering rates while you hold the bonds.

Or, in the worst case, you get reliable cash flows and your money back at maturity.

Your Portfolio Could Be Holding the Next Bank Seizure Stock

Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, and now Credit Suisse... The Fed's interest rate hikes are putting more and more pressure on weak banks.

Your investment portfolio could be exposed.

But this revolutionary new AI investing tool can help you figure out if your investments are at risk, what to do about it, and find new opportunities for you to invest in.

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There Will Be No “Next” Bank Collapse
Tim Melvin

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How much more financial pressure can Australian mortgagees take?

Talk to anyone on the street these days and the conversation will inevitably turn to how inflation is increasing their cost of living in some form or another….

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Talk to anyone on the street these days and the conversation will inevitably turn to how inflation is increasing their cost of living in some form or another. Inflation has risen steadily since the beginning of 2022 despite the determined efforts of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to bring it back towards its target range of 2-3 per cent.

In less than 1 year and 11 interest rate rises later, official interest rates have risen from 0.10 per cent to 3.85 per cent but inflation remains stubbornly high at 7 per cent. Interest rates have never risen this fast before nor from such a historically low level either.

As previously outlined in an earlier blog entry on Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA), the big four banks of Australia have just under 80 per cent of the residential property mortgage loan market. In “normal” economic times of rising interest rates, banks should be natural beneficiaries of these conditions. However, these are not normal times.

The business model of banks has generally stayed the same for centuries, i.e. borrow money from one source at a low interest rate and lend it to a customer at a higher rate. Today, the Australian banks generally get their funding from wholesale and retail sources. However, the banks were offered a one-off funding source from the RBA called the Term Funding Facility (TFF) during the COVID-19 period to support the economy. This started in April 2020, priced at an unprecedented low fixed rate of 0.10 per cent for 3 years with the last drawdown accepted in June 2021 for a total of $188 billion. Fast forward to today and the first drawdowns from this temporary facility have already started to roll-off which means that these fund sources need to be replaced with one of considerably more expensive sources, namely wholesale funding or retail deposits. As a result of this change in funding, bank CEOs have unanimously declared that net interest margins, and hence its effect on bank earnings, have peaked for this cycle despite speculation that interest rates may still rise later in the year.

Prior to the start of the roll-off of TFF drawdowns, the entire Australian banking industry engaged in cutthroat competition for new and refinancing mortgage loans in a bid to maintain or grow market share. In the aftermath of the bank reporting season, two of the big four banks have stated they are no longer pursuing market share at any price, with CBA and National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) announcing they will scrap their refinancing cashback offers after 1 June and 30 June respectively.

Turning our attention back to the average Australian, the big bank mortgage customers have been remarkably resilient. The Australian dream of owning the house you live in is still alive for now, with owners willing to endure significant lifestyle changes in a bid to keep up with mortgage payments. The big banks have reflected this phenomenon with a reduction in individual loan provisions and only a modest increase in collective loan provisions.

Time will tell how much more financial pressure Australian mortgagees can take, especially with the RBA still undecided on the future trajectory of interest rates. What has been agreed on by the big banks, is that things are not going to get easier. At least not in the short-term.

The Montgomery Funds own shares in the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank. This article was prepared 29 May 2023 with the information we have today, and our view may change. It does not constitute formal advice or professional investment advice. If you wish to trade these companies you should seek financial advice.

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U.S. Breakeven Inflation Comments

I just refreshed my favourite U.S. breakeven inflation chart (above), and I was surprised by how placid pricing has been. This article gives a few observations regarding the implications of TIPS pricing.Background note: the breakeven inflation rate is …

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I just refreshed my favourite U.S. breakeven inflation chart (above), and I was surprised by how placid pricing has been. This article gives a few observations regarding the implications of TIPS pricing.

Background note: the breakeven inflation rate is the inflation rate that results in an inflation-linked bond — TIPS in the U.S. market — having the same total return as a conventional bond. If we assume that there are no risk premia, then it can be interpreted as “what the market is pricing in for inflation.” I have a free online primer here, as well as a book on the subject.

(As an aside, I often run into people who argue that “breakeven inflation has nothing to do with inflation/inflation forecasts.” I discuss this topic in greater depth in my book, but the premise that inflation breakevens have nothing to do with inflation only makes sense from a very short term trading perspective — long-term valuation is based on the breakeven rate versus realised inflation.)

The top panel shows the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. Although it scooted upwards after the pandemic, it is below where is was pre-Financial Crisis, and roughly in line with the immediate post-crisis period. (Breakevens fell at the end of the 2010s due to persistent misses of the inflation target to the downside.) Despite all the barrels of virtual ink being dumped on the topic of inflation, there is pretty much no inflation risk premium in pricing.

The bottom panel shows forward breakeven inflation: the 5-year rate starting 5 years in the future. (The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is (roughly) the average of the 5-year spot rate — not shown — and that forward rate.) It is actually lower than its “usual” level pre-2014, and did not really budge after recovering from its post-recession dip. (My uninformed guess is that the forward rate was depressed because inflation bulls bid up the front breakevens — because they were the most affected by an inflation shock — while inflation bears would have focussed more on long-dated breakevens, with the forward being mechanically depressed as a result.)

Since I am not offering investment advice, all I can observe is the following.

  • Since it looks like one would need a magnifying glass to find an inflation risk premium, TIPS do seem like a “non-expensive” inflation hedge. (I use “non-expensive” since they do not look cheap.) Might be less painful than short duration positions (if one were inclined to do that).

  • Breakeven volatility is way more boring than I would have expected based on the recent movements in inflation. The undershoot during the recession was not too surprising given negative oil prices and expectations of another lost decade, but the response to the inflation spike was restrained.

  • The “message for the economy” is that market pricing suggests that either inflation reverts on its own, or the Fed is expected to break something bigger than a few hapless regional banks if inflation does not in fact revert.

Otherwise, I am preparing for a video panel on MMT at the Canadian Economics Association 2023 Conference on Tuesday. (One needs to pay the conference fee to see the panel.) I have also been puttering around with my inflation book. I have a couple draft sections that I might put up in the coming days/weeks.

Email subscription: Go to https://bondeconomics.substack.com/ 

(c) Brian Romanchuk 2023

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“What’s More Tragic Is Capitalism”: BLM Faces Bankruptcy As Founder Cullors Is Cut By Warner Bros

"What’s More Tragic Is Capitalism": BLM Faces Bankruptcy As Founder Cullors Is Cut By Warner Bros

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Two years…

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"What's More Tragic Is Capitalism": BLM Faces Bankruptcy As Founder Cullors Is Cut By Warner Bros

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Two years ago, I wrote columns about companies pouring money into Black Lives Matter to establish their bona fides as “antiracist” corporations. The money continued to flow despite serious questions raised about BLM’s management and accounting. Democratic prosecutors like New York Attorney General Letitia James showed little interest in these allegations even as James sought to disband the National Rifle Association (NRA) over similar allegations. At the same time, Black Lives Matter co-founder Patrisse Cullors cashed in with companies like Warner Bros. eager to give her massive contracts to signal their own reformed status. It now appears that BLM is facing bankruptcy after burning through tens of millions and Warner Bros. cut ties with Cullors after the contract produced no — zero — new programming.

Some states belatedly investigated BLM as founders like Cullors seemed to scatter to the winds.

Gone are tens of millions of dollars, including millions spent on luxury mansions and windfalls for close associates of BLM leaders.

The usual suspects gathered around the activists like former Clinton campaign general counsel Marc Elias, who later removed himself from his “key role” as the scandals grew.

When questions were raised about the lack of accounting and questionable spending, BLM attacked critics as “white supremacists.”

Warner Bros. was one of the companies eager to grab its own piece of Cullors to signal its own anti-racist virtues.  It gave Cullors a lucrative contract to guide the company in the creation of both scripted and non-scripted content, focusing on reparations and other forms of social justice. It launched a publicity campaign for everyone to know that it established a “wide-ranging content partnership” with Cullors who would now help guide the massive corporation’s new programming. Calling Cullors “one of the most influential thought leaders in American public life,” Warner Bros. announced that she was going to create a wide array of new programming, including “but not limited to live-action scripted drama and comedy series; longform/event series; unscripted docuseries; animated programming for co-viewing among kids, young adults and families; and original digital content.”

Some are now wondering if Warner Bros. ever intended for this contract to produce anything other than a public relations pitch or whether Cullors took the money and ran without producing even a trailer for an actual product. Indeed, both explanations may be true.

Paying money to Cullors was likely viewed as a type of insurance to protect the company from accusations of racial insensitive. After all, the company was giving creative powers to a person who had no prior experience or demonstrated talent in the area. Yet, Cullors would be developing programming for one of the largest media and entertainment companies in the world.

One can hardly blame Cullors despite criticizism by some on the left for going on a buying spree of luxury properties.

After all, Cullors was previously open about her lack of interest in working with “capitalist” elements. Nevertheless, BLM was run like a Trotskyite study group as the media and corporations poured in support and revenue.

It was glaringly ironic to see companies like Warner Bros. falling over each other to grab their own front person as the group continued boycotts of white-owned businesses. Indeed, if you did not want to be on the wrong end of one of those boycotts, you needed to get Cullors on your payroll.

Much has now changed as companies like Bud Light have been rocked by boycotts over what some view as heavy handed virtue signaling campaigns.

It was quite a change for Cullors and her BLM co-founder, who previously proclaimed “[we] are trained Marxists. We are super versed on, sort of, ideological theories.” She denounced capitalism as worse than COVID-19. Yet, companies like Lululemon rushed to find their own “social justice warrior” while selling leggings for $120 apiece.

When some began to raise questions about Cullors buying luxury homes, Facebook and Twitter censored them.

With increasing concerns over the loss of millions, Cullors eventually stepped down as executive director of the Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation, as others resigned.  At the same time, the New York Post was revealing that BLM Global Network transferred $6.3 million to Cullors’ spouse, Janaya Khan, and other Canadian activists to purchase a mansion in Toronto in 2021.

According to The Washington Examiner, BLM PAC and a Los Angeles-based jail reform group paid Cullors $20,000 a month. It also spent nearly $26,000 on meetings at a luxury Malibu beach resort in 2019. Reform LA Jails, chaired by Cullors, received $1.4 million, of which $205,000 went to the consulting firm owned by Cullors and her spouse, according to New York magazine.

Once again, while figures like James have spent huge amounts of money and effort to disband the NRA over such accounting and spending controversies, there has been only limited efforts directed against BLM in New York and most states.

Cullors once declared that “while the COVID-19 illness is tragic, what’s more tragic is capitalism.” These companies seem to be trying to prove her point. Yet, at least for Cullors, Warner Bros. fulfilled its slogan that this is all “The stuff that dreams are made of.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/28/2023 - 16:00

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