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The Sky Is Not Falling: Why The Bitcoin Price Doesn’t Matter

The Sky Is Not Falling: Why The Bitcoin Price Doesn’t Matter

Authored by Nico Antuna Cooper via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The recent bitcoin price…

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The Sky Is Not Falling: Why The Bitcoin Price Doesn't Matter

Authored by Nico Antuna Cooper via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The recent bitcoin price action demonstrates that it’s time for a more grown-up culture of building, development and adoption around Bitcoin.

“Bear markets are the best time to be alive and in the sector. It’s depressing for those that don’t know what they’re doing, it’s awesome for those that have a longer-term view.”

– Simon Dixon

The difference between Bitcoin and everything else is that the price of bitcoin doesn’t matter. Over the long term the price of bitcoin has gone up, yes, but the value proposition of bitcoin as hard, non-confiscatable and truly decentralized money is really what matters. Not the price hype and not the pump. This is why traders and speculators have lost interest in Bitcoin, and continue to flock to the newest pumping decentralized finance (DeFi) or non-fungible token (NFT) project at the drop of a hat. This loss of interest from the speculators is viewed by many as a negative development for Bitcoin, but it is actually a very positive one. What we are seeing now represented in the lower bitcoin price is the value of its actual functional utility and the absence of retail speculation capital that was there before. This article will describe why that’s a good thing.

Since its inception, misguided analysts have described Bitcoin as a Ponzi scheme dependent on continued artificial speculation pumping into the space. As anybody with experience can tell you, speculators are shiny-object chasers by nature and pull out of any position the minute something shinier comes along. Well, the bitcoin “bear market” has arrived and all the speculators are gone. They got bored and took their toys home with them. Even with them gone, bitcoin is still valued at far higher than its 2020 and 2021 lows and is increasing adoption on an institutional (and sovereign) level. This adoption represents real value.

The stock market sugar rush caused by Federal Reserve Board money printing and negative real interest rates is ending, and the roller coaster is now going down from the top. This has had an impact not only on bitcoin, but on the stock market and the other altcoins as well. Put simply, everything is going down and after the chaos subsides we will see what assets, stocks and projects actually offer tangible, objective value. That’s what investment was always supposed to be about. Despite the confused dichotomy between “growth stocks” and “value stocks,” investing is by definition supposed to be about your long-term belief in the value of something, not in its short-term growth projections. Retail investors have struggled to comprehend this because of the get-rich-quick, everyone’s-a-genius market culture of the past few years. Indeed, if an asset like bitcoin isn’t constantly appreciating on a double- or triple-digit basis, then it’s a “failing” asset to these people. The market is on its head. As a result, the meme-stock crowd is out of bitcoin now, just like they are out of the stock market as a whole. Turns out the memers had paper hands all along.

This article by Bloomberg, titled “Day Trader Army Loses All The Money It Made In Meme-Stock Era,” details how many of the new traders that entered the space have “never seen a market that wasn’t supported by the Fed.” Retail traders lost all the gains they made in the Dogecoin, AMC and GameStop rallies, and are exactly back at square one.

Source: Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg

The entire market is falling right now and we need to rethink what a “good investment” is. Like the above chart from Morgan Stanley shows, the overall movements of retail trading have canceled out to zero since January 2020 despite their temporarily outsized gains in 2021. If we compare today’s bitcoin price to the January 2020 price, we still see a gain of 331% for bitcoin, outdoing the S&P 500’s return by a large margin and beating the overall retail trading profit of absolutely nothing by a margin of infinity. Do we need any more proof that HODLing is a superior strategy?

Source: Coindesk. January 1, 2020, BTC price: $7,175.50. May 9, 2022, BTC price: $30,943

Yes, bitcoin is down from its all-time high by half, but factoring in the incredible market distortions caused by unprecedented money printing, memestock manipulations and post-COVID-19 interest rates since early 2020, bitcoin still blows anything else out of the water. We just need to zoom out to a more “honest” market window in order to see this. Everybody is acting like the sky is falling, but again, that is only because most retail investors only entered the market in 2020 or 2021 and have never seen a market that wasn’t supported by the Fed.

There is a culture in the Bitcoin community these days of “low (i.e., long-term) time preference,” which fundamentally counters the Ponzi scheme-minded speculators that need quick gains all of the time. High (short-term) time preference fuels the perpetual “passive income” lie that newbies always fall for. In contrast, the “modest” two-year gain of 331% in bitcoin is more than enough for HODLers that have been buying since before the feeding frenzy of the past two years. Long-term time preference works for bitcoin because its fundamental value proposition has held true since its inception, and it will continue to hold true in the future for those who wait. Those who cannot wait are washed out by the market over a long enough time period in any market, just like we have seen with the 0% net gain for novice retail traders that pull in and out too much. The gains caused by hype, stimulus and cultural madness were fleeting, but the gains in Bitcoin utility and adoption have been real all along.

Detractors have been criticizing Bitcoin for needing meme-stock speculators to make it work, but now that the meme-stock speculators are gone, the detractors are criticizing Bitcoin for the speculators not being there. This is simply illogical, and proof that Bitcoin is not actually a Ponzi scheme. The same can not be said for other cryptocurrencies. Ponzi schemes by definition cannot exist for decades and the honesty in current bitcoin price attests to the honesty of its fundamental value proposition. Yes, it goes down sometimes. This is an indicator of health and transparency. Something that just goes up and up and up forever? That’s a Ponzi scheme and the bottom will always fall out eventually.

No one’s singing “Pump It Up” anymore, and despite how fun and euphoric the 2021 rally was for a while, the space is really better off without the memers around. It’s time for a more grown-up culture of development and adoption around Bitcoin, and time for a more grown-up price conversation as well.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/11/2022 - 19:40

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Economics

Why You Shouldn’t Worry About Costco Stock

The warehouse club’s shares have been falling, but investors have nothing to worry about.

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The warehouse club's shares have been falling, but investors have nothing to worry about.

The market crash has driven stocks into a bear market panicking many investors as strong companies with solid results see their shares tank. It's a market that seems to have no safe havens as the vague specter of inflation has cast a dark shadow over the entire market, but pandemic stocks, technology companies, and the entire retail sector.

Costco (COST) - Get Costco Wholesale Corporation Report has not been immune to the drop. Despite the warehouse club operating pretty much as it always has, steadily adding members while retaining existing members, the chain has seen its share price fall 22.83% in the past six months.

That's a big drop for a chain which has been a very steady stock, usually moving upward while also paying a dividend. Costco's share price drop, however, has nothing to actually do with the company's performance. Instead, the company has fallen victim to broad concerns about retail in general.

Target (TGT) - Get Target Corporation Report, for example, saw its shares lose over 25% in value after it reported first quarter results. The chain grew its same-store sales, which was impressive given that it had seen that metric rise by 22.9% in previous-year quarter. The retailer faltered when it came to profits as earnings were cut in half year-over-year due to rising costs and supply chain issue.

Never mind that Wall Street has taken Target's strength for weakness (making money and gaining customers under these conditions is impressive), Costco shareholders have even less to be worried about.

Ting Shen/Xinhua via Getty

Why Is Costco So Strong?

Retail stocks, including Target and Costco, have suffered due to rising prices (inflation), supply chain issues, and fears over consumer spending drops. These are real concerns, but Costco has a lot of protection from those issues. The warehouse club operates on a membership model. Its profits come largely from selling memberships, not on the goods its sells its members.

Costco offers members the promise of low prices in exchange for a membership fee. The company offers a limited selection to keep prices down and it has enormous bargaining power with suppliers.

It's possible that inflation will drive prices higher on some key Costco items, but they company can simply pass those increase on without adding a markup. That makes the chain a value proposition for shoppers as these factors impact all retailers.

Costco has been able to hold its own on gross margin, according to CFO Richard Galanti speaking during the company's second-quarter earnings call.

"Moving down to the gross margin line. Our reported gross margin in the second quarter was lower year over year by 32 basis points but up 5 basis points, excluding gas inflation," he said.

Basically, aside from gas -- which is generally cheaper at Costco than anywhere else -- the company maintained its margin. It also grew its same-store sales by 11.1% excluding gas while its income rose as well.

"Net income for the quarter came in at $1.299 billion or $2.92 per diluted share. Last year's second quarter net income came in at $951 million or $2.14 per diluted share," Galanti shared.

Membership Is Costco's Key Metric

 Unlike a traditional retailer, sales aren't the key metric for Target. Membership tells investors more about the health of the company than anything else. The warehouse club needs both retain members and add new ones.

 It has done that, according to Galanti.

"In terms of renewal rates, they continue to increase. At second quarter end, our U.S. and Canada renewal rate stood at 92%, up 0.4 percentage point from the 12-week earlier at Q1 end. And worldwide rate, it came in at 89.6%, up 0.6% from where it stood 12 weeks earlier at Q1 end," the CFO shared.

Costco has seen its renewal rates go up as more members auto-renew. The warehouse club has also seen more of its members opt for the higher-priced Executive Membership, " who, on average, renew at a higher rate than non-Executive members," Galanti shared.

Membership has been growing (as it steadily has) as well, according to the CFO.

In terms of the number of members at second quarter end, member households and total cardholders, total households was 63.4 million, up 900,000 from the 62.5 million just 12 weeks earlier; and total cardholders at Q2 end, 114.8 million, up 1.7 million from the 113.1 million figure 12 weeks ago. At second quarter end, paid Executive Memberships stood at $27.1 million, an increase of $644,000 during the 12-week period since Q1 end. Executive Members, by the way, represent now 42.7% of our total membership base and 70.9% of our total sales.

So, while Costco's share price has suffered due to broader concerns and general market panic, the chain's business has not suffered. In a terrifying environment for investors, you could argue that Costco's one of the safer bets as long as you're willing to be patient.

In the short-term, stock prices may not reflect actual business results. Over time, however, the warehouse club will go back to posting steady share gains while also paying a dividend (and perhaps offering a bonus special dividend).   

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Stocks

Hot Biotech Penny Stocks to Watch as Stocks Enter Bear Market 

Are these biotech penny stocks on your watchlist right now?
The post Hot Biotech Penny Stocks to Watch as Stocks Enter Bear Market  appeared first on…

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3 Hot Biotech Penny Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist With the Market Down 

Recently, biotech penny stocks have seen heightened bullish sentiment. Today, the emphasis on biotech stocks comes as the Monkeypox virus is seeing a resurgence in certain areas around the world. Today, the WHO confirmed 80 cases of the virus in 11 countries. And since then, investors have begun looking for biotech stocks that may be able to benefit. 

[Read More] Penny Stocks To Buy Now? Hot Monkeypox Stocks To Watch Today

In addition to this, we are also seeing heightened volatility with penny stocks and blue chips. This means that it is more important than ever to stay on your toes. Understanding what your trading strategy is and how you can best execute it is crucial in these market conditions.

If you are thinking about getting into penny stocks, then make sure to do your research first. There is a lot going on in the stock market, so researching and understanding all you can about penny stocks is essential to your success. With this in mind, let’s take a look at three biotech penny stocks to add to your watchlist right now. 

3 Biotech Penny Stocks to Add to Your Market Crash Watchlist 

  1. Immix Biopharma Inc. (NASDAQ: IMMX
  2. TherapeuticsMD Inc. (NASDAQ: TXMD
  3. Chimeric Inc. (NASDAQ: CMRX

Immix Biopharma Inc. (NASDAQ: IMMX) 

One of the bigger gainers of the day is IMMX stock. At EOD, shares of IMMX stock shot up by over 30%, with a 5% gain in after hours trading. And, in the past five day period, shares of IMMX have climbed by more than 50%.

While we do see many gains with penny stocks without news, today, Immix made an exciting announcement in premarket trading. The company stated that its IMX-110 drug demonstrated improved survival over the current approved drug, Trabectedin. It states that IMX-110 is part of what is expected to be a $6.5 billion market by 2030. 

“We are excited to see continued evidence of IMX-110 anti-tumor activity versus approved therapies. We believe this is a preview of anti-tumor activity to be demonstrated in our 2 clinical trials to be kicked-off in 2022: IMX-110 monotherapy, and IMX-110 in combination with anti-PD-1 tislelizumab.”

The CEO of Immix Bio, Ilya Rachman

Right now, there is quite a lot of bullish sentiment with biotech penny stocks. And, as a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, Immix is at the center of this. While it is highly volatile IMMX stock could be worth adding to your list of penny stocks to watch. 

TherapeuticsMD Inc. (NASDAQ: TXMD) 

Another gainer of the day on May 20th is TXMD stock, which shot up by over 35%. In the past month, shares of TXMD stock have fallen by around 74%, which makes this gain much more substantial.

[Read More] Penny Stocks To Buy? Warren Buffett’s Bitcoin Bet, 3 Stocks To Watch

Today, the company announced that it received FDA approval for its Supplemental New Drug Application for Annovera. With this approval, the company will be able to produce 7,000 additional rings for the supply chain, which will be made available to customers by the second and third quarter of this year. 

“Today’s approval is an important milestone as it will allow us to more efficiently scale, manufacture, and consistently supply ANNOVERA to meet the increasing demand by women who want procedure-free, long-lasting reversible birth control.” 

The CEO of TherapeuticsMD, Hugh O’Dowd

Back in 2018, Annovera was approved by the FDA as a long-lasting, reversible, procedure-free birth control product. And since then, the company has worked hard to commercialize it as much as possible. With that in mind, do you think TXMD is a worthwhile add to your penny stocks watchlist or not?

Penny_Stocks_to_Watch_TherapeuticsMD

Chimeric Inc. (NASDAQ: CMRX) 

With an over 6.8% gain at EOD on May 20th, CMRX stock is another penny stock that investors are watching right now. In the past five days, we’ve seen a very steady gain with CMRX stock, pushing up by more than 20%, which is no small feat. And, this comes after a six month drop of over 60%.

The main reason for today’s gain with CMRX stock comes as fears surrounding an increase in Monkey Pox cases, are driving up biotech stocks. This includes Chimeric, which recently announced a deal with Emergent, to offer exclusive rights for its smallpox oral antiviral product known as Tembexa. 

And, given that Monkey Pox is a smallpox derivative virus, we see the major correlation between the two. With this new virus situation, there is a large demand increase for this vaccine. And while the fears that are comparing this virus to Covid-19 are somewhat unwarranted, there is a lot to consider. With this in mind, does CMRX deserve a spot on your buy list or not?

Penny_Stocks_to_Watch_Chimeric

Which Penny Stocks Are You Watching Right Now?

Finding the best penny stocks to buy is all about understanding where to look. While it can be difficult given the heightened volatility in the stock market right now, there are some ways to make it easier. The best course of action will always be to have a well-thought-out trading strategy on hand. 

[Read More] What to Know About Buying Penny Stocks on May 20th 

 This can help you to maximize your chance of profitability and increase your odds of not seeing losses. In addition, considering exactly what is going on in the stock market remains paramount to your success as an investor. So, as we continue to traverse this extremely volatile period, which penny stocks are on your watchlist right now?

[reblex id='29520']

The post Hot Biotech Penny Stocks to Watch as Stocks Enter Bear Market  appeared first on Penny Stocks to Buy, Picks, News and Information | PennyStocks.com.

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Spread & Containment

Why I’m Not Worried About the Stock Market Crash

In the long run, the stock market always goes up (but it’s way more complicated than that).

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In the long run, the stock market always goes up (but it's way more complicated than that).

We're not living in 1929. It's important to remember that as we watch the stock market crash and our personal net worth take a big hit.

While that has certainly happened, it's important to note that the stock market isn't the economy. We're not on the cusp of the next Great Depression. Instead, we have a market that's spooked by rising inflation (i.e. stuff costing more) that's also struggling with supply chain issues caused by an unparalleled global pandemic.

Yes, many things cost more including basic needs like food and shelter, as well as near-basic needs likes cars and gas. But, while inflation has been real, that's not the full story of the U.S. economy.

We're also living at a time where the unemployment rate (3.6%) remains near historic low (where it most likely would be if jobs weren't so plentiful allowing some people to sit out of the labor market for a period). The labor picture has for a very rare time in American history titled in favor of workers.

This has led to jobs in the retail and service space which once paid minimum wage while offering minimal benefits to offer $15 an hour or more along with perks like free college tuition. That's not to say that these jobs even pay a living wage (it depends a lot upon where you live) but the situation for workers in these spaces has notably improved.

The economy has its struggles, but it's not a clear picture. High house prices for one person means a home that has gained a lot of value for someone else. And other issues -- like the high cost of gas and the shortage of new as well as used cars -- are tied to relatively short-term problems.

statista

But What About My Investments?

Stock markets crash. That's sometimes an indication of greater economic problems, but the U.S. stock market has never failed to recover its losses -- often in a fairly quick period. That's cold comfort as you see red in your portfolio, but if retirement (or whatever you plan to spend your invested money on) isn't now or in the next year or two, a "crash" is something expected that can be used to your advantage.

The first thing you should do is evaluate why you own the shares that you own. Has something changed about any of those companies because of the pandemic? Not has the share price gone down, but has anything changed about the company's long-term trajectory?

Short-term investors, or perhaps people who panic easily, have used Netflix's (NFLX) - Get Netflix, Inc. Report slight subscriber drop as a sign that the company has peaked. Do you believe that or do you see the streaming leader both returning to growth and better controlling its content costs?

Netflix had explosive growth during the pandemic. Would you have rather it added those customers at a pace that spread things out for Wall Street? Do you see people leaving the service for a rival or to start reading more?

The reality is that many high-quality companies have suffered major declines for reasons that have nothing to do with their business performance. Yes, the pandemic did create some false winner that won't be long-term successes, but that's a small number of companies (and many long-term investors avoided those companies because of that possibility.

Now Is the Time to Buy

The stock market has become a giant Marshalls filled with name brands at huge discounts. It may seem counterintuitive to buy while stocks are crashing, but isn't that the best time to buy? If your BMW dealer has too much inventory and offers a sale, that doesn't change the long-term value of owning a BMW.

And while buying can be a huge opportunity, the reality is that a market crash is not the time to sell (unless you truly believe you have a holding that's not a good long-term investment). Yes, a lot of high-fliers have fallen to earth, but that was true in 2008 as well and history has shown that holding and buying great companies when prices are low is how you get rich.

Daniel Kline is Managing Editor of TheStreet.com

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