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The Six Largest Wall Street Banks Issue Market Red Alerts

The Six Largest Wall Street Banks Issue Market Red Alerts

Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.

These are some of the biggest Wall Street banks that have issued "red alert" warnings on…

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The Six Largest Wall Street Banks Issue Market Red Alerts

Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.

These are some of the biggest Wall Street banks that have issued "red alert" warnings on the US stock market in just the past few days, with some expecting an imminent correction of 10-20%, while others expect a slow burning drift lower over the next few months. Below we summarize the highlights of their surprisingly downbeat views.

Morgan Stanley

We start with Morgan Stanley, which yesterday published its latest Global Macro Forum slide deck (available for professional subscribers), and where the bank's chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets warns that equity market internals have continued to follow a "mid cycle transition", a process which usually ends with quality stocks - like the FAAMGs market "generals" - getting hit, "which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&P 500" through October.

Sheets frames his pessimistic view by disclosing the five themes which he believes will define markets though year-end. These are:

  1. Policy divergence and the start of tapering: MS expects the Fed to signal its intent to taper at the September meeting. As central bank policy becomes less easy, it also becomes more divergent. This will provide support for long DXY, short PLN/HUF, short US duration and gold, caution on US and Taiwan equities.

  2. Vaccination divergence: The world has two strategies to combat COVID-19 – vaccination and suppression. The Delta variant has made the latter difficult, increasing risks to growth in regions with low vaccination rates. The bank sees this as bullish for EU equities.

  3. Valuation divergence: 2021 to date has seen a wide adjustment in valuations. Sheets' advice: "Focus on areas with greater levels of valuation adjustment. We add Brazil versus EM equities to our top trades."

  4. Echoes of 2004: Sheets thinks that 2004 offers a useful guide for a 'mid-cycle transition’. He suggests taking default risk over spread risk and like loans over bonds in credit.

  5. Doing things > buying things: The pandemic saw demand for goods jump and demand for services collapse. As the recovery continues, expect a reversal. We think this supports energy > metals, and are cautious on US consumer discretionary.

While regular readers are aware of Morgan Stanley's long-running theme that the US economy is undergoing a mid-cycle transition, for those unfamiliar, here is one way that the bank's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson has framed it previously, showing that the ISM Manufacturing Index always lags the Prices Paid, which has recently reversed (shown inverted on the chart below) and suggests of significant downside tot he closely watched indicator.

As part of this "mid-cycle transition", several months ago the bank urged clients to transition out of small caps and into quality stocks...

... we are now on the verge of ending the mid-cycle transition, which according to Michael Wilson ends either in "fire," with a market correction of 10-20% as a result of higher rates...

... or "ice" as consumer spending grinds to a halt.

Putting it together, Andrew Sheets lists the following 5 key market takeaways:

  1. September and October represents a tricky period for central bank communication, economic data and market technicals: The bank sees risks to both US equities and US bonds given current valuations, and as a result Morgan Stanley is downgrading US stocks to Underweight and global equities to Equal Weight.

  2. For the global economy, Morgan Stanley thinks that many current inflationary pressures are temporary, but the timing of peak inflation varies by region and country. On growth, the bank believes that "we’ve passed the peak in activity, with August particularly weak in the US, but the end of the cycle is not nigh."

  3. In rates, it will come as no surprise that MS thinks that core rates have bottomed and will move higher into 4Q21 and into 2H22, after all this is the biggest consensus trade across Wall Street (and is thus likely wrong): Central bank withdrawal of policy accommodation and a near-term trough in economic data should both help to push yields higher. Sheets also thinks USD also grinds higher into year-end.

  4. For equities, Sheets warns that market internals have continued to follow a ‘mid-cycle transition’: That process, as noted above, usually ends with quality stocks getting hit, which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&P 500. Both ‘fire’ (rates higher) and ‘ice’ (the growth slowdown is worse than expected) pose risk to a market that has barely de-rated year-to-date.

Putting it all together, on Wednesday morning Sheets spoke to Bloomberg TV, saying that “we are going to have a period where data is going to be weak in September at the time when you have a heightened risk of delta variant and school reopening" adding that “If the data does stay soft, the market valuations just haven’t adjusted like other parts of the market have.”

Bank of America

Regular readers will know that Bank of America has been one of the most bearish big banks in 2021, with its Chief Investment Officer spouting a weekly dose of fire and brimstone (as an example see his "Bear Case In 12 "Charts Of Darkness"), while the bank's chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian having held to the lowest 2021 year-end S&P price target at just 3,800, tied with Stifel's Barry Bannister for most bearish strategist.

Well that changed today, when just like Michael Wilson a few weeks ago, she finally hiked her year-end S&P price target to 4,250 from 3,800, admitting that she is "marking our models to market", i.e., merely catching up with stocks, i.e., the Fed's balance sheet, but not before warning that "downside risks remain" and asking "what good news is left?" Indeed, while higher, her new price target still implies 6% downside from current prices. The table below reveals how she got to that particular price, and also how Subramanian got her 2022 year-end S&P price target of 4,600... which is just 2% higher from spot.

But far from turning bullish, her note published this morning titled "Should you keep dancing if the music slows down?" (available for professional subscribers) is a scathing critique of everything that is broken with the market, and a cautionary tale to anyone who believes that buying the S&P at its all time high of 4,500 is a good idea.

Next, Subramanian warns that "sentiment is all but euphoric with our Sell Side Indicator (see SSI) closer to a sell signal than at any point since 2007"...

... an indicator which explains 25% of subsequent S&P500 returns...

... while wage/input cost inflation and supply chain shifts are starting to weigh on margins.

The BofA strategist also calculates that interest rate risk is at a record high, with S&P 500 equity duration equivalent to a 36-year zero-coupon bond, where every 10bp increase in the discount rate equates to a 4% decline. Finally, "valuations leave no margin for error."

Having reluctantly hiked the price target, Subramanian - like Wilson - is quick to caution that "this may not end now. But when it ends, it could end badly."

If taper means no upside to the S&P 500, tightening would be worse. Canaries are chirping – PPG, a barometer of industrial activity, aborted guidance on supply chain woes; credit spreads have stealthily widened, and our valuation model (~80% explanatory power for S&P 10yr returns) now indicates negative returns (-0.8% p.a.) for the first time since ‘99.

As noted above, Subramanian also looked at one of her favorite indicators - price to normalized earnings - which has a very strong relationship to subsequent S&P 500 returns over the long haul. With the S&P 500 current sporting a trailing normalized PE ratio of 29x, the BofA strategist calculates that the 10-year annual 12-month price return of -0.8%, "represents the first negative returns since the Tech Bubble." In other words, ten years from now stocks will be... lower than where they are now.

Deutsche Bank

While not nearly as bearish as Morgan Stanley (and its equity Underweight rating) or Bank of America (with its gloomy near-term and 10 year forecasts), Deutsche Bank has also joined the bandwagon of bears, and in the bank's latest House View (available for professional subscribers), titled "The New World: Moving Beyond Covid", the bank writes that "the global economy performed strongly over the summer, but the delta variant has led to increasingly frequent data misses versus expectations. This has seen us downgrade our near-term US growth outlook just as high inflation readings have shifted attention to when central banks will taper asset purchases." 

Looking ahead, DB notes that while tapering discussions will raise the stakes for this month’s Fed and ECB decisions but "September will see other pivotal events for the outlook too. The German election has tightened up significantly, and polls suggest that only three-party coalitions can form a majority, meaning negotiations could take some months. US government funding runs out on September 30, and a potential fight over the debt ceiling is approaching. Furthermore, the House will vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill by September 27, and we should soon find out the next Fed Chair."

ANd while financial markets have remained buoyant, and equity indices have repeatedly hit fresh highs, Deutsche Bank's strategists "expect an imminent correction" even though they see the S&P 500 rising back around current levels by year end.

Some more details on the coming pullback in markets which DB believes will see the S&P drop 6%-10%:

  • Indicators of macro cyclical growth are peaking and data surprises are now negative

  • Earnings upgrades are likely done as the bottom up consensus has upgraded forward estimates significantly.

  • Inflation risks are rising.

  • And overall positioning is high while the retail investor is in retreat, though buybacks and inflows are still strong.

But, as noted above, and in seeking to break from the uber-bears, DB notes that it then sees equities rallying back as its baseline remains for strong growth but only a gradual and modest rise in inflation.

The summary of the bank's market views is below:

Goldman Sachs

Perhaps the most cheerful take of all, came from Goldman's Christian Mueller-Glissmann, who in a Bloomberg interview echoed what we first observed a few weeks ago, namely that “High valuations have increased market fragility,” adding that "if there is a new negative development, it could generate growth shocks that lead to rapid de-risking.”

“The key point here is there is very little buffer left if you get large negative surprises,” said Mueller-Glissmann.

Writing in a GOAL Kickstart note on Tuesday (available for professional subscribers) Mueller-Glissman said that "the S&P 500 has continued to make all-time highs despite the weaker macro. In fact, realized vol dipped to 8% during the summer pointing towards a new low vol regime, resulting in particularly strong risk-adjusted returns. After the clear 'good news is good news' regime in Q1, for the S&P 500 'bad news' has become 'good news' again last quarter."

This, the Goldman strategist notes, "is consistent with more support from dovish 'monetary policy' or search for yield: long-duration secular growth stocks have been boosted by the decline in real yields, helping broad indices which now have a larger weight in these stocks."

Meanwhile, dissecting macro surprises shows that while global MAP scores were still positive until recently, the US MAP turned negative, led by labor data while consumer and manufacturing held up better. All in all this has supported dovish Fed policy expectations creating a 'Goldilocks' backdrop .

However, as Goldman warns, "more recently macro surprises have also turned more negative across the board." During periods of negative macro surprises the right tail risk for equities has historically been more limited - average returns and hit ratios for the S&P 500 tend to be lower. Option markets have reflected this - for the next 3m the likelihood of very positive S&P 500 returns (above 8%) is priced lower than normal, even lower than during slowdown phases. On the other hand, Mueller-Glissman notes that the likelihood of a 5% S&P 500 rally is still elevated compared to the average during low vol regimes.

Meanwhile, the recent low realized volatility has pushed the volatility risk premium close to the post-2000s highs and Goldman's options research team expects realized volatility until the end of the year to be lower than what is implied.

The conclusion: "With equities close to all-time highs, elevated equity valuations and a less favorable growth/inflation mix near term, call overwriting can still be attractive as a carry overlay."

Citigroup

The threat of growing market fragility was also touched upon by Citi's Chris Montagu who in his latest Viewpoint note, wrote that investor positioning has become ultra-bullish, with longs on the S&P 500 outnumbering shorts by nearly 10 to 1. In his view, half of those bets are likely to face losses on a drop in the index of as little as 2.2%. And even a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation.

As Montagu observes, the main equity indexes continue to set new highs, but the underlying positioning differs greatly by region. US equity positioning is extended and very one-sided net long, which leads to asymmetric risk of positioning amplifying any small market correction. Investors continue to add to this long bias. Meanwhile, positioning is much lighter in Europe and less likely to significantly drive price action near term. In Japan the recent rally in Nikkei 225 initially only saw limited investor participation, but there are signs that futures investor flows are accelerating even as ETFs continue to see modest outflows.

Focusing just on the US, Montagu writes that "investors have steadily been adding to net long exposure throughout the summer" and remain very long. Meanwhile, if one includes “legacy” positions and in particular the large swing towards net longer around the June FOMC meeting, then positioning looks even more extended as "investors continued to add to the long bias last week, but only at the moderate steady rate seen throughout the rest of the summer."

WIth that in mind, Montagu warns that "risk is asymmetric to the downside with crowded positioning in the form of longs outnumbering shorts nearly 10 to 1." According to his calculations "these longs sit on an average 2.4% profit and half of positions in loss on a move below 4,435 (~2.2% correction). That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down."

Finally, the Nasdaq is similarly stretched with the concentration of long positions leaving the market more vulnerable on a sell-off, and while older positions sit on large profits which act as a buffer on minor volatility, "nearly a quarter of positions are more recent and with no profit buffer."

In short, one serious swoon lower could quickly transform into a rout.

Credit Suisse

We round out the gloomish bank compendium by skimming the latest note from Credit Suisse equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite who while turned bearish on U.S. equities while predicting that rising bond yields and inflation expectations are likely to help European equities outperform their regional peers.

Europe’s PMI momentum is “much better than in the U.S., and markets have unusually decoupled from this,” Garthwaite said, while noting that he is "small underweight" on U.S. equities as tax and regulations pose a higher risk than other regions, and points to “extreme” valuations.

* * *

So is a correction, or perhaps even bear market, assured? Of course not, and there are two key catalysts that could prevent such an outcome, besides the Fed of course. On one hand, banks can unleash another record burst of stock buybacks as they did three weeks ago just as stocks were about to breach the key 4,350 support level. And then, there is the continued risk appetite among retail investors.

In his latest Flows and Liquidity notes, JPM quant Nick Panigirtzoglou saw retail investors as the key force behind recent gains, noting that they plowed almost $30 billion of cash into US stocks and ETFs in July and August, the most in a two-month period. And it is these retail investors - whose performance has trounced that of hedge funds in the past two years, that could also be the support pillar that keeps the market stable, as long as easy money policies persist, according to JPM.

“Retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely,” JPMorgan global strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a Sept. 1 note. “Whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.”

"So far this year retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely" Panigirtzoglou wrote, adding that "whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen."

At the same time, he also concedes the counter argument "that the strength of the retail flow has pushed equities up by so much and has made investors globally more overweight equities, many of them unwilling, that the risk of profit taking should be naturally high. Indeed, in support of this counter argument, updating our most holistic of our equity position indicators, i.e. the implied equity allocation of non-bank investors globally, points to an equity allocation of 46% currently, only slightly below the post Lehman crisis high of 47.6% seen in 2018"

And while the JPM quant admits that he is sympathetic to this counter  argument, "in the absence of a material slowing in the retail flow into equities, the risk of an equity correction remains low." As such, in his view monitoring this retail flow on a daily and weekly basis going forward "is key to the equity market outlook."

And since JPMorgan knows this, the Fed certainly knows this, and we are confident that even the smallest market hiccup will prompt a furious response at the Marriner Eccles building, because we are now well beyond the point of no return and Jerome Powell and company simply can not afford even the smallest drop in stocks without risking a full-blown market meltdown, much to the chagrin of the banks above who are predicting just that.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/09/2021 - 04:33

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Five Aerospace Investments to Buy as Wars Worsen Copy

Five aerospace investments to buy as wars worsen give investors a chance to acquire shares of companies focused on fortifying national defense. The five…

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Five aerospace investments to buy as wars worsen give investors a chance to acquire shares of companies focused on fortifying national defense.

The five aerospace investments to buy provide military products to help protect freedom amid Russia’s ongoing onslaught against Ukraine that began in February 2022, as well as supply arms in the Middle East used after Hamas militants attacked and murdered civilians in Israel on Oct. 7. Even though the S&P 500 recently reached all-time highs, these five aerospace investments have remained reasonably priced and rated as recommendations by seasoned analysts and a pension fund chairman.

State television broadcasts in Russia show the country’s soldiers advancing further into Ukrainian territory, but protests have occurred involving family members of those serving in perilous conditions in the invasion of their neighboring nation to be brought home. Even though hundreds of thousands of Russians also have fled to other countries to avoid compulsory military service, the aggressor’s President Vladimir Putin has vowed to continue to send additional soldiers into the fierce fighting.

While Russia’s land-grab of Crimea and other parts of Ukraine show no end in sight, Israel’s war with Hamas likely will last for at least additional months, according to the latest reports. United Nations’ leaders expressed alarm on Dec. 26 about intensifying Israeli attacks that killed more than 100 Palestinians over two days in part of the Gaza Strip, when 15 members of the Israel Defense Force (IDF) also lost their lives.

Five Aerospace Investments to Buy as Wars Worsen: General Dynamics

One of the five aerospace investments to buy as wars worsen is General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), a Reston, Virginia-based aerospace company with more than 100,000 employees in 70-plus countries. A key business unit of General Dynamics is Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, a manufacturer of business aircraft. Other segments of General Dynamics focus on making military products such as Abrams tanks, Stryker fighting vehicles, ASCOD fighting vehicles like the Spanish PIZARRO and British AJAX, LAV-25 Light Armored Vehicles and Flyer-60 lightweight tactical vehicles.

For the U.S. Navy and other allied armed forces, General Dynamics builds Virginia-class attack submarines, Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines, Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers, Expeditionary Sea Base ships, fleet logistics ships, commercial cargo ships, aircraft and naval gun systems, Hydra-70 rockets, military radios and command and control systems. In addition, the company provides radio and optical telescopes, secure mobile phones, PIRANHA and PANDUR wheeled armored vehicles and mobile bridge systems.

Chicago-based investment firm William Blair & Co. is among those recommending General Dynamics. The Chicago firm gave an “outperform” rating to General Dynamics in a Dec. 21 research note.

Gulfstream is seeking G700 FAA certification by the end of 2023, suggesting potentially positive news in the next 10 days, William Blair wrote in its recent research note. The investment firm projected that General Dynamics would trade upward upward upon the G700’s certification.

“General Dynamics’ 2023 aircraft delivery guidance of approximately 134 planes assumes that 19 G700s are delivered in the fourth quarter,” wrote William Blair’s aerospace and defense analyst Louie DiPalma. “Even if deliveries fall short of this target, we believe investors will take a glass-half-full approach upon receipt of the certification.”

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.

Five Aerospace Investments to Buy as Wars Worsen: GD Outlook

The G700 is a major focus area for investors because it is Gulfstream’s most significant aircraft introduction since the iconic G650 in 2012, DiPalma wrote. Gulfstream has the highest market share in the long-range jet segment of the private aircraft market, the highest profit margin of aircraft peers and the most premium business aviation brand, he added.

“The aircraft remains immensely popular today with corporations and high-net-worth individuals,” Di Palma wrote. “Elon Musk has reportedly placed an order for a G700 to go along with his existing G650. Qatar Airways announced at the Paris Air Show that 10 G700 aircraft will become part of its fleet.”

G700 deliveries and subsequent G800 deliveries are expected to be the cornerstone of Gulfstream’s growth and margin expansion for the next decade, DiPalma wrote. This should lead to a rebound in the stock price as the margins for the G700 and G800 are very attractive, he added.

Management’s guidance is for the aerospace operating margin to increase from about 13.2% in 2022 to roughly 14.0% in 2023 and 15.8% in 2024. Longer term, a high-teens profit margin appears within reach, DiPalma projected.

In other General Dynamics business segments, William Blair expects several yet-unannounced large contract awards for General Dynamics IT, to go along with C$1.7 billion, or US$1.29 billion, in General Dynamics Mission Systems contracts announced on Dec. 20 for the Canadian Army. General Dynamics shares are poised to have a strong 2024, William Blair wrote.

Five Aerospace Investments to Buy as Wars Worsen: VSE Corporation

Alexandria, Virginia-based VSE Corporation’s (NASDAQ: VSEC) price-to-earnings (P/E) valuation multiple of 22 received support when AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR), a Wood Dale, Illinois, provider of aviation services, announced on Dec. 21 that it would acquire the product support business of Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI), a Berwyn, Pennsylvania, supplier of aerospace services, structures and systems. AAR’s purchase price of $725 million reflects confidence in a continued post-pandemic aerospace rebound.

VSE, a provider of aftermarket distribution and repair services for land, sea and air transportation assets used by government and commercial markets, is rated “outperform” by William Blair. The company’s core services include maintenance, repair and operations (MRO), parts distribution, supply chain management and logistics, engineering support, as well as consulting and training for global commercial, federal, military and defense customers.

“Robust consumer travel demand and aging aircraft fleets have driven elevated maintenance visits,” William Blair’s DiPalma wrote in a Dec. 21 research note. “The AAR–Triumph deal is valued at a premium 13-times 2024 EBITDA multiple, which was in line with the valuation multiple that Heico (NYSE: HEI) paid for Wencor over the summer.”

VSE currently trades at a discounted 9.5 times consensus 2024 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) estimates, as well as 11.6 times consensus 2023 EBITDA.

Five Aerospace Investments to Buy as Wars Worsen: VSE Undervalued?

“We expect that VSE shares will trend higher as investors process this deal,” DiPalma wrote. “VSE shares trade at 9.5 times consensus 2024 adjusted EBITDA, compared with peers and M&A comps in the 10-to-14-times range. We think that VSE’s multiple will expand as it closes the divestiture of its federal and defense business and makes strategic acquisitions. We see consistent 15% annual upside for shares as VSE continues to take share in the $110 billion aviation aftermarket industry.”

William Blair reaffirmed its “outperform” rating for VSE on Dec. 21. The main risk to VSE shares is lumpiness associated with its aviation services margins, Di Palma wrote. However, he raised 2024 estimates to further reflect commentary from VSE’s analysts’ day in November.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.

Five Aerospace Investments to Buy as Wars Worsen: HEICO Corporation

HEICO Corporation (NYSEL: HEI), is a Hollywood, Florida-based technology-driven aerospace, industrial, defense and electronics company that also is ranked as an “outperform” investment by William Blair’s DiPalma. The aerospace aftermarket parts provider recently reported fourth-quarter financials above consensus analysts’ estimates, driven by 20% organic growth in HEICO’s flight support group.

HEICO’s management indicated that the performance of recently acquired Wencor is exceeding expectations. However, HEICO leaders offered color on 2024 organic growth and margin expectations that forecast reduced gains. Even though consensus estimates already assumed slowing growth, it is still not a positive for HEICO, DiPalma wrote.

William Blair forecasts 15% annual upside to HEICO’s shares, based on EBITDA growth. HEICO’s management cited a host of reasons for its quarterly outperformance, highlighted by the continued commercial air travel recovery. The company also referenced new product introductions and efficiency initiatives.

HEICO’s defense product sales increased by 26% sequentially, marking the third consecutive sequential increase in defense product revenue. The company’s leaders conveyed that defense in general is moving in the right direction to enhance financial performance.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.

Five Dividend-paying Defense and Aerospace Investments to Purchase: XAR

A fourth way to obtain exposure to defense and aerospace investments is through SPDR S&P Aerospace and Defense ETF (XAR). That exchange-traded fund  tracks the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index. The fund is overweight in industrials and underweight in technology and consumer cyclicals, said Bob Carlson, a pension fund chairman who heads the Retirement Watch investment newsletter.

Bob Carlson, who heads Retirement Watch, answers questions from Paul Dykewicz.

XAR has 34 securities, and 44.2% of the fund is in the 10 largest positions. The fund is up 25.82% in the last 12 months, 22.03% in the past three months and 7.92% for the last month. Its dividend yield recently measured 0.38%.

The largest positions in the fund recently were Axon Enterprise (NASDAQ: AXON), Boeing (NYSE: BA), L3Harris Technologies (NYSE: LHX), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE: SPR) and Virgin Galactic (NYSE: SPCE).

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

Five Dividend-paying Defense and Aerospace Investments to Purchase: PPA

The second fund recommended by Carlson is Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA), which tracks the SPADE Defense Index. It has the same underweighting and overweighting as XAR, he said.

PPA recently held 52 securities and 53.2% of the fund was in its 10 largest positions. With so many holdings, the fund offers much reduced risk compared to buying individual stocks. The largest positions in the fund recently were Boeing (NYSE: BA), RTX Corp. (NYSE: RTX), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) and General Electric (NYSE:GE).

The fund is up 19.07% for the past year, 50.34% in the last three months and 5.30% during the past month. The dividend yield recently touched 0.69%.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

Other Fans of Aerospace

Two fans of aerospace stocks are Mark Skousen, PhD, and seasoned stock picker Jim Woods. The pair team up to head the Fast Money Alert advisory service They already are profitable in their recent recommendation of Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) in Fast Money Alert.

Mark Skousen, a scion of Ben Franklin, meets with Paul Dykewicz.


Jim Woods, a former U.S. Army paratrooper, co-heads Fast Money Alert.

Bryan Perry, who heads the Cash Machine investment newsletter and the Micro-Cap Stock Trader advisory service, recommends satellite services provider Globalstar (NYSE American: GSAT), of Covington, Louisiana, that has jumped 50.00% since he advised buying it two months ago. Perry is averaging a dividend yield of 11.14% in his Cash Machine newsletter but is breaking out with the red-hot recommendation of Globalstar in his Micro-Cap Stock Trader advisory service.


Bryan Perry heads Cash Machine, averaging an 11.14% dividend yield.

Military Equipment Demand Soars amid Multiple Wars

The U.S. military faces an acute need to adopt innovation, to expedite implementation of technological gains, to tap into the talents of people in various industries and to step-up collaboration with private industry and international partners to enhance effectiveness, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. told attendees on Nov 16 at a national security conference. Prime examples of the need are showed by multiple raging wars, including the Middle East and Ukraine. A cold war involves China and its increasingly strained relationships with Taiwan and other Asian nations.

The shocking Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel touched off an ongoing war in the Middle East, coupled with Russia’s February 2022 invasion and continuing assault of neighboring Ukraine. Those brutal military conflicts show the fragility of peace when determined aggressors are willing to use any means necessary to achieve their goals. To fend off such attacks, rapid and effective response is required.

“The Department of Defense is doing more than ever before to deter, defend, and, if necessary, defeat aggression,” Gen. Brown said at the National Security Innovation Forum at the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg Center in Washington, D.C.

One of Russia’s war ships, the 360-foot-long Novocherkassk, was damaged on Dec. 26 by a Ukrainian attack on the Black Sea port of Feodosia in Crimea. This video of an explosion at the port that reportedly shows a section of the ship hit by aircraft-guided missiles.


Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr.
Photo By: Benjamin Applebaum

National security threats can compel immediate action, Gen. Brown said he quickly learned since taking his post on Oct. 1.

 

“We may not have much warning when the next fight begins,” Gen. Brown said. “We need to be ready.”

 

In a pre-recorded speech at the national security conference, Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP, told the John Hopkins national security conference attendees about the critical need for collaboration between government and industry.

 

“Building enduring technological advances for the U.S. military will help our service members and allies defend freedom across the globe,” Bloomberg said.

 

The “horrific terrorist attacks” against Israel and civilians living there on Oct. 7 underscore the importance of that mission, Bloomberg added.

Paul Dykewicz, www.pauldykewicz.com, is an accomplished, award-winning journalist who has written for Dow Jones, the Wall Street JournalInvestor’s Business DailyUSA Today, the Journal of Commerce, Seeking Alpha, Guru Focus and other publications and websites. Attention Holiday Gift Buyers! Consider purchasing Paul’s inspirational book, “Holy Smokes! Golden Guidance from Notre Dame’s Championship Chaplain,” with a foreword by former national championship-winning football coach Lou Holtz. The uplifting book is great gift and is endorsed by Joe Montana, Joe Theismann, Ara Parseghian, “Rocket” Ismail, Reggie Brooks, Dick Vitale and many othersCall 202-677-4457 for special pricing on multiple-book purchases or autographed copies! Follow Paul on Twitter @PaulDykewicz. He is the editor of StockInvestor.com and DividendInvestor.com, a writer for both websites and a columnist. He further is editorial director of Eagle Financial Publications in Washington, D.C., where he edits monthly investment newsletters, time-sensitive trading alerts, free e-letters and other investment reports. Paul previously served as business editor of Baltimore’s Daily Record newspaper, after writing for the Baltimore Business Journal and Crain Communications.

The post Five Aerospace Investments to Buy as Wars Worsen Copy appeared first on Stock Investor.

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Health Officials: Man Dies From Bubonic Plague In New Mexico

Health Officials: Man Dies From Bubonic Plague In New Mexico

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Officials in…

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Health Officials: Man Dies From Bubonic Plague In New Mexico

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Officials in New Mexico confirmed that a resident died from the plague in the United States’ first fatal case in several years.

A bubonic plague smear, prepared from a lymph removed from an adenopathic lymph node, or bubo, of a plague patient, demonstrates the presence of the Yersinia pestis bacteria that causes the plague in this undated photo. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/Getty Images)

The New Mexico Department of Health, in a statement, said that a man in Lincoln County “succumbed to the plague.” The man, who was not identified, was hospitalized before his death, officials said.

They further noted that it is the first human case of plague in New Mexico since 2021 and also the first death since 2020, according to the statement. No other details were provided, including how the disease spread to the man.

The agency is now doing outreach in Lincoln County, while “an environmental assessment will also be conducted in the community to look for ongoing risk,” the statement continued.

This tragic incident serves as a clear reminder of the threat posed by this ancient disease and emphasizes the need for heightened community awareness and proactive measures to prevent its spread,” the agency said.

A bacterial disease that spreads via rodents, it is generally spread to people through the bites of infected fleas. The plague, known as the black death or the bubonic plague, can spread by contact with infected animals such as rodents, pets, or wildlife.

The New Mexico Health Department statement said that pets such as dogs and cats that roam and hunt can bring infected fleas back into homes and put residents at risk.

Officials warned people in the area to “avoid sick or dead rodents and rabbits, and their nests and burrows” and to “prevent pets from roaming and hunting.”

“Talk to your veterinarian about using an appropriate flea control product on your pets as not all products are safe for cats, dogs or your children” and “have sick pets examined promptly by a veterinarian,” it added.

“See your doctor about any unexplained illness involving a sudden and severe fever, the statement continued, adding that locals should clean areas around their home that could house rodents like wood piles, junk piles, old vehicles, and brush piles.

The plague, which is spread by the bacteria Yersinia pestis, famously caused the deaths of an estimated hundreds of millions of Europeans in the 14th and 15th centuries following the Mongol invasions. In that pandemic, the bacteria spread via fleas on black rats, which historians say was not known by the people at the time.

Other outbreaks of the plague, such as the Plague of Justinian in the 6th century, are also believed to have killed about one-fifth of the population of the Byzantine Empire, according to historical records and accounts. In 2013, researchers said the Justinian plague was also caused by the Yersinia pestis bacteria.

But in the United States, it is considered a rare disease and usually occurs only in several countries worldwide. Generally, according to the Mayo Clinic, the bacteria affects only a few people in U.S. rural areas in Western states.

Recent cases have occurred mainly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Countries with frequent plague cases include Madagascar, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Peru, the clinic says. There were multiple cases of plague reported in Inner Mongolia, China, in recent years, too.

Symptoms

Symptoms of a bubonic plague infection include headache, chills, fever, and weakness. Health officials say it can usually cause a painful swelling of lymph nodes in the groin, armpit, or neck areas. The swelling usually occurs within about two to eight days.

The disease can generally be treated with antibiotics, but it is usually deadly when not treated, the Mayo Clinic website says.

“Plague is considered a potential bioweapon. The U.S. government has plans and treatments in place if the disease is used as a weapon,” the website also says.

According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the last time that plague deaths were reported in the United States was in 2020 when two people died.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 21:40

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Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and…

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Riley Gaines Explains How Women's Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and bewildering tunnel of social justice cultism?  Global events have been so frenetic that many people might not remember, but only a couple years ago Big Tech companies and numerous governments were openly aligned in favor of mass censorship.  Not just to prevent the public from investigating the facts surrounding the pandemic farce, but to silence anyone questioning the validity of woke concepts like trans ideology. 

From 2020-2022 was the closest the west has come in a long time to a complete erasure of freedom of speech.  Even today there are still countries and Europe and places like Canada or Australia that are charging forward with draconian speech laws.  The phrase "radical speech" is starting to circulate within pro-censorship circles in reference to any platform where people are allowed to talk critically.  What is radical speech?  Basically, it's any discussion that runs contrary to the beliefs of the political left.

Open hatred of moderate or conservative ideals is perfectly acceptable, but don't ever shine a negative light on woke activism, or you might be a terrorist.

Riley Gaines has experienced this double standard first hand.  She was even assaulted and taken hostage at an event in 2023 at San Francisco State University when leftists protester tried to trap her in a room and demanded she "pay them to let her go."  Campus police allegedly witnessed the incident but charges were never filed and surveillance footage from the college was never released.  

It's probably the last thing a champion female swimmer ever expects, but her head-on collision with the trans movement and the institutional conspiracy to push it on the public forced her to become a counter-culture voice of reason rather than just an athlete.

For years the independent media argued that no matter how much we expose the insanity of men posing as women to compete and dominate women's sports, nothing will really change until the real female athletes speak up and fight back.  Riley Gaines and those like her represent that necessary rebellion and a desperately needed return to common sense and reason.

In a recent interview on the Joe Rogan Podcast, Gaines related some interesting information on the inner workings of the NCAA and the subversive schemes surrounding trans athletes.  Not only were women participants essentially strong-armed by colleges and officials into quietly going along with the program, there was also a concerted propaganda effort.  Competition ceremonies were rigged as vehicles for promoting trans athletes over everyone else. 

The bottom line?  The competitions didn't matter.  The real women and their achievements didn't matter.  The only thing that mattered to officials were the photo ops; dudes pretending to be chicks posing with awards for the gushing corporate media.  The agenda took precedence.

Lia Thomas, formerly known as William Thomas, was more than an activist invading female sports, he was also apparently a science project fostered and protected by the athletic establishment.  It's important to understand that the political left does not care about female athletes.  They do not care about women's sports.  They don't care about the integrity of the environments they co-opt.  Their only goal is to identify viable platforms with social impact and take control of them.  Women's sports are seen as a vehicle for public indoctrination, nothing more.

The reasons why they covet women's sports are varied, but a primary motive is the desire to assert the fallacy that men and women are "the same" psychologically as well as physically.  They want the deconstruction of biological sex and identity as nothing more than "social constructs" subject to personal preference.  If they can destroy what it means to be a man or a woman, they can destroy the very foundations of relationships, families and even procreation.  

For now it seems as though the trans agenda is hitting a wall with much of the public aware of it and less afraid to criticize it.  Social media companies might be able to silence some people, but they can't silence everyone.  However, there is still a significant threat as the movement continues to target children through the public education system and women's sports are not out of the woods yet.   

The ultimate solution is for women athletes around the world to organize and widely refuse to participate in any competitions in which biological men are allowed.  The only way to save women's sports is for women to be willing to end them, at least until institutions that put doctrine ahead of logic are made irrelevant.          

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 17:20

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