Existing home prices are up 3.9% year over year, with demand near 21st-century lows. How is this possible? NAR‘s existing home sales report on Thursday gives us insight into the why factor.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in August was $407,100, an increase of 3.9% from August 2022 ($391,700). All four U.S. regions posted price increases.


The simple answer is the same one I have been giving for years, especially after the summer of 2020: We have too many people chasing too few homes. We broke to all-time lows in active listings data in the worst time possible — the years 2020-2024, when home-buying demographics were the best in U.S. history, and we all paid the price with massive home price gains in a short amount of time. 

The other difference in this housing cycle is that credit is very normal, meaning everyone has to qualify for a home loan these days, so sales have real potential to get hard with rising mortgage rates. This happened after March 2022 when rates spiked faster than any other time in recent history. But even with the biggest home sales crash ever, prices are still at all-time highs.

Ladies and gentlemen, this was the foundation core premise of the savagely unhealthy housing market: Home prices can escalate out of control in a low inventory environment, and even today, with demand low, we are still dealing with this issue in a lot of markets
From NAR:”Home sales have been stable for several months, neither rising nor falling in any meaningful way,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rate changes will have a big impact over the short run, while job gains will have a steady, positive impact over the long run.

What else did we learn from today’s report?

Low housing comps for the rest of the year

On the surface, housing looks like it is improving as the year-over-year sales decline decreases and the home price data grows. However, that isn’t the true story; it’s only true when you compare it to the biggest sales collapse period ever, which happened in the second half of 2022. Also, pricing was weaker in the second half of 2022 as well. It wasn’t just the seasonal price weakness last year; we had prices falling monthly to accompany that sales collapse.

So, when you see the year-over-year data get better, remember this context.

Year-over-year, sales fell 15.3% (down from 4.77 million in August 2022).

Inventory still negative year over year

From NAR: Total housing inventory registered at the end of August was 1.1 million units, down 0.9% from July and 14.1% from one year ago (1.28 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace, identical to July and up from 3.2 months in August 2022. 

The housing inventory data has been negative year over year per the NAR data for the past few months. As we can see in the chart below, even with the biggest home sales crash in history for one year, inventory data has yet to return to the peaks we saw in 2007. Getting back to the four-decade average between 2-2.5 million has been a struggle.

As I have stressed time and time again, when you have normal credit channels, meaning the people who buy homes are in traditional 30-year fixed loans, the inventory channels will behave differently than they did in the years 2000-2007. Remember, people don’t sell to be homeless; they sell to obtain shelter most of the time.

Why are home prices rising year over year? Simply put, inventory is low, and demand isn’t collapsing like it did last year. With mortgage rates rising again and running into the seasonal soft period, we can see the percentage of price cuts increase with more weakness in demand.

However, with all the data we have now in 2023, we have a better guide to use it going out in the future, and this is why this weekend’s tracker will be very critical to talk about since mortgage rates are near 21st-century highs again.

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Throughout the years, I have presented the case for Bitcoin to a lot of people from a wide range of backgrounds. The list includes curious cab drivers, financial advisors, young software developers, skeptical policymakers, voiceless activists, and once even an IMF employee.

Needless to say, most of these attempts ended up falling on deaf ears. So I started asking myself “why would this person in front of me care about Bitcoin?” and immediately realized that getting a response was particularly challenging because—even among Bitcoiners—there is no common understanding of what Bitcoin is in the first place. Is it “peer-to-peer electronic cash” as Satoshi originally defined it? Or should we consider it as “digital property” as Michael Saylor suggests? Or maybe listen to Gary Gensler and define it as a commodity?

As tempting as it is to look for a common definition for Bitcoin, doing so during a time when even the most simple linguistic choices are under scrutiny makes such a venture uninspiring and, frankly, pointless.

What I decided to do instead was understand what each of those people really cared about and how Bitcoin could fit into their view of the world rather than expecting them to understand a subject they are barely interested in. As the saying goes, “If the mountain will not come to Mohammed, Mohammed must go to the mountain.”

By doing so, I realized it was unreasonable to act like Morpheus and expect my interlocutors to take a big orange pill. After all, if that approach barely worked with Neo who was “the chosen one”, why would it work with my brother-in-law or with a stranger sitting next to me on the plane?

Because I’ve known for a while that Bitcoin’s nature is multifaceted, the very idea of one single entry point to a multifaceted concept did not sound right. Depending on where one lives, social status, professional background, set of beliefs, values, and environment, there will be a different (and smaller) orange pill that will be more appropriate for each person.

More categories may emerge in the future (Jason Lowery, for example, proposes a military interpretation of Bitcoin and the recent ordinals frenzy reminded us how valuable Bitcoin’s block space can be as its own use-case), but here are the four main buckets that I have identified so far—which represent four different set of problems that Bitcoin is solving for.

1 - Hard Money

In this sense, it’s more typical of a precious metal. Instead of the supply changing to keep the value the same, the supply is predetermined and the value changes —Satoshi Nakamoto

The first sets of problems that Bitcoin attempts to solve originate from a financial system that is broken in its most foundational aspects. For those not understanding, the problem can be described as having a similar nature (but, of course, different magnitude) to hyperinflation in Weimar Republic and Venezuela. The constant debasement of currencies (even the “mild” 2% inflation we all know about) has a tremendous societal impact, with those who are “close to the money printer” being the only winners—a phenomenon also known as the Cantillon Effect.

Unlike fiat money and commodities, such as gold, Bitcoin’s total supply is capped, which makes it the most scarce store of value in the history of mankind and, therefore, an ideal store of value in the long term.

For all those living in the half of the world that is experiencing double-digit inflation, this is a particularly interesting moment to understand how money printing and currency debasement can affect so many aspects of their lives. In fact, people who have lived through the 70s and those living in countries such as Venezuela, Lebanon, Zimbabwe, Argentina, and Turkey will be more receptive to the idea of Bitcoin as a way to preserve their purchasing power in inflationary environments.

This is arguably one of the most difficult aspects of Bitcoin to understand given the number of assumptions it requires us to challenge (e.g. “controlled inflation is good for the economy” or “fiat currencies are stable”). Yet, it’s arguably the most powerful orange pill that one could take.

2 - Superior Payment Network

Humans have invented the best financial tool in our history, and it’s an exciting time to be alive and use it — Jack Mallers

For the first time in human history, money and a payment network are integrated into one open and global system. Not only can Bitcoin serve as a store of value in the long term as explained above, but it also functions as a global medium of exchange that does not require any third party.

In a few seconds, money can be sent anywhere in the world by only paying a fraction of a cent. Compared to bank transfers, credit cards, and remittances, sending money through Bitcoin is significantly cheaper and faster.

People who don’t like bitcoin as a store of value can just use it as a payment system by converting it to the local currency at the two ends of the transaction. Why do that instead of using legacy systems? Perhaps to quickly send money during earthquakes and wars. Or to bypass remittance companies that take weeks to transfer money and charge up to 10% in fees.

The potential of Bitcoin just as a payment network extends to the most unthinkable areas. Micropayments have the potential to boost the creator economy and or solve the problems that have been haunting social networks.

3 - Freedom Technology

It would be a dark, dark world if Bitcoin didn't exist — Alex Gladstein

The two previous perspectives address the common criticism that “Bitcoin is useless”. But another common criticism—often paired with the former even though it directly contradicts it—is the fact that (just like cars, computers, and most technologies) Bitcoin is used by criminals.

As crazy as it might sound to many, that’s a feature, not a bug. Because in those instances where it’s ethnicity, religion, sex, or political views that determine whether one is a criminal, having a financial system that cannot be weaponized by the government is one of the best insurance policies you can wish for. That is particularly true for two-thirds of the global population that lives in backsliding democracies or autocratic regimes.

Those who care about freedom and human rights should be paying very close attention to this technology. Bitcoin has already provided lifeline support for individuals in need for over a decade. Wikileaks would have not been able to expose serious violations of human rights and civil liberties without Bitcoin. Similarly, many in North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Hong Kong, Belarus, Nigeria, and Russia also use Bitcoin as a tool to escape the control and government censorship.

As we move away from physical money and the potential for financial surveillance and censorship increases exponentially, the world will greatly benefit an additional set of checks and balances to limit the power of governments and corporations. Understanding this is very important for all those that are active in promoting individual freedom and human rights in the most authoritarian corners of the world.

4 - Energy Buyer Of Last Resort

It is a win-win-win for everybody. It's a win for the environment and an inarguable win for the economy — Dennis Porter

Lastly, there is a relatively small crowd of people who might be able to appreciate Bitcoin for a very different set of reasons. Bitcoin constitutes an unprecedented opportunity to build a cleaner, more resilient, and more efficient energy infrastructure. Bitcoin can mitigate the problem of intermittency—the demand/supply mismatch that occurs with renewable energy—and help with the $13B problem of congestion of the electric grid in rural areas.

Bitcoin miners can strengthen these grids and incentivize the deployment of more renewable energy by adapting to the fluctuations of power generation schedules since their rigs can be turned off at any moment without notice. Commonly referred to as “energy buyers of last resort”, Bitcoin miners are perfect for Demand Response programs. Last year, Bitcoin miners in Texas “returned up to 1,500 megawatts to the grid, enough to heat over 1.5 million small homes or keep 300 large hospitals fully operational”.

Bitcoin miners are also finding very creative ways to utilize energy that was previously wasted and many are arguing that Bitcoin is “the only available, practical and scalable technology when it comes to tackling the world’s most deadly greenhouse gas: methane.”

There’s (at least) four orange pills, and people don’t need to take them all.

One of the things I learned during my Bitcoin journey is that this is not a mono-functional technology like a washing-machine or an elevator. Because Bitcoin solves many different problems, its perceived value and utility will change significantly depending on who you talk to.

Those living in South Carolina might not care about censorship resistance or privacy as much as the local jobs that are created by a new Bitcoin company. The Turkish population might have not cared about Bitcoin as an inflation hedge (given the country’s situation, it should) during the earthquake earlier this year, but just needed a way to receive money as fast as possible. North Korean defectors like Yeonmi Park are not really interested in how Bitcoin micropayments can support artists online while they are being sold for less than $300 as sex slaves.

Listening and trying to understand who you are talking to is the most important thing you can do when presenting an idea. That is particularly true with Bitcoin, given the negative bias most people have towards it, how complex it is to understand, and how difficult it is to challenge some of the greatest assumptions that most people have.

This simple framework is an attempt to strategically identify the areas of interest of people who are new to Bitcoin and avoid overwhelming them with a big orange pill they might not be ready for.

Instead, by choosing between hard money, payment system, freedom technology, and energy buyer, I am now able to better structure conversations and elevator pitches when engaging with people and answering the usual “Uh! Tell me more about this Bitcoin thing!” question.

So go ahead, choose your orange pill and remember the most important question for Bitcoin is “why would one care about it?”

This is a guest post by Jesse Colzani. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

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Bitcoin is a bargain for some at current levels, but downside BTC price predictions are still firmly on the agenda.

Bitcoin (BTC) circled lower after the Sep. 21 Wall Street open as $20,000 BTC price predictions resurfaced.

Bitcoin analysis: Hype, FOMO and a "slow grind" to $28,500

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView covered a lackluster 24 hours for BTC price action, with $27,000 fading from view.

The aftermath of the United States Federal Reserve interest rates pause offered little for Bitcoin bulls, BTC/USD having dipped almost $700 the day prior.

Now, market participants returned to a more conservative outlook in the absence of tangible volatility.

“Something like this over the course of October would be perfect i would say,” popular trader Crypto Tony told X subscribers.

“Slow grind up to $28,500, followed by hype and FOMO, to then dump it once more.”

Monitoring resource Material Indicators meanwhile eyed a so-called “death cross” on the weekly chart.

The death cross occurs when certain moving averages (MAs) collide, and here, the 21-week MA was on course to head below the 200-week equivalent.

“The 21-Week and the 200-Week Moving Averages are on a collision course for a DeathCross on the BTC Weekly candle Close/Open,” it warned in an X post on the day.

Material Indicators referenced a potential lower low (LL) at the weekly close.

“The 50-Week MA, may provide some temporary support and even trigger a short term rally, but if PA takes us there, it will print a LL which I believe opens the door to grind down to test $20k,” it added.

On the horizon was the liquidation of crypto assets by defunct exchange FTX — an event which could contribute to BTC selling pressure.

“If there is a base case for hopium, it's that FTX liquidators don't want to see too much price erosion before they start distributing, and may try to prop price up a little longer. That's purely speculative, but not out of the realm of possibilities,” the X post concluded.

Traders eye bargain BTC price levels

More optimistic takes included that from popular trader and analyst CryptoCon, who maintained that Bitcoin was in the first innings of its next bull market.

Related: Bitcoin short-term holders ‘panic’ amid nearly 100% unrealized loss

“Doesn't get much simpler than this. Bitcoin early and late Bull Market in green, Bear Market ends in red,” he commented alongside a chart shortly following the Fed news.

Doesn't get much simpler than this.#Bitcoin early and late Bull Market in green, Bear Market ends in red.

The one exception to this on the Kivanc Supertrend was the 2020 black swan.

The only thing that can cause a sell signal is… pic.twitter.com/8F5M74LC44

— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) September 21, 2023

Just as confident was fellow trader Jelle, who suspected a prime buying opportunity for prospective BTC investors at current prices.

Historically, the "post-bottom consolidation" phase has been a great time to buy.

I don't think this time will be different.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/8WJ9ixz6Mr

— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) September 22, 2023

BTC/USD traded at around $26,600 at the time of writing, making September gains equal around 2.5% — still Bitcoin’s best month since 2016.

Per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass, Bitcoin has delivered losses every September since.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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