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The rise of crypto: Bitcoin sets landmarks but alts can go independent

Unfounded hype? This time around, investors have begun to realize the value proposition of Bitcoin and Ether.
On Dec. 8, exactly one month ago, Bitcoin was hovering around the $18,700 range, with many analysts debating as to whether…

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Unfounded hype? This time around, investors have begun to realize the value proposition of Bitcoin and Ether.

On Dec. 8, exactly one month ago, Bitcoin was hovering around the $18,700 range, with many analysts debating as to whether the flagship asset would be able to sustain its bullish momentum and cross its all-time high value close to $20,000. Well, how quickly things have changed since then because within a period of just 30 days, Bitcoin (BTC) has repeatedly scaled up to new ATHs, even surpassing the $41,000 barrier.

Over the course of the last seven days, BTC has exhibited a substantial growth of around 41%, with the digital asset seemingly breaking new ground with each passing day. However, this has led to investors becoming increasingly nervous since there are many who immediately are given flashbacks of the 2018 crash that resulted in most cryptocurrencies crashing hard within a matter of days.

In this regard, Cointelegraph Markets contributor Michaël van de Poppe believes that while 2020 was an amazing year for crypto, everyone should brace for a “healthy correction” in the near future. That being said, for many, that can serve as an opportunity like no other because there is an increasing population of budding crypto enthusiasts who now want a piece of the action, and not just Bitcoin. On the matter, van de Poppe opined: “The higher Bitcoin goes, the more money comes into the market and more money can flow towards altcoins.”

What’s causing BTC to soar?

The reasons for Bitcoin’s momentum are manifold, starting with the fact that the industry as a whole had been in a prolonged bear market all through 2018 and 2019, but despite the slumps, accumulation had never really stopped.

Another often overlooked narrative is related to the recent BTC halving, as time and again, historical data has indicated that approximately four to six months after every cycle, the value of the premier digital currency takes a sharp upward turn — something that has happened this time around as well.

Not only that, but the digital asset seems to be right on track with the stock-to-flow model, which was created by Dutch institutional investor PlanB. According to the S2F model, scarcity is used as the defining metric to quantify the value of Bitcoin. And while most people use the setup to assess BTCs future valuation, PlanB claims that the S2F model can also be used in relation to gold and silver, as well as other assets.

Ben Zhou, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Bybit, confirmed that it’s the “institutional inflow fueling Bitcoin,” adding that there is now a level of consensus, or at the very least, peer pressure among certain corners of the institutional world to have Bitcoin in their portfolio: “Certainly, those that have a younger clientele feel the need to increase their exposure to BTC.”

Omar Chen, CEO of the ZB.com exchange, believes that institutional buying has simply served as a catalyst for Bitcoin and has not been the primary driver for its bullish momentum. He told Cointelegraph that investors, both from the traditional and the crypto sectors, are in fact on the lookout for alternative safe havens, pointing toward gold and its rally during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic:

“As people and institutions learn more about its attributes and benefits, Bitcoin has become another haven of choice for money. Combined with the recent spate of negative news about COVID-19 vaccines, investors are increasingly losing faith in traditional finance and the global economic recovery, making the bullish case for Bitcoin even louder.”

Are altcoins inextricably linked to BTC?

As Bitcoin marches on, even crossing the $41,000 threshold, there is no denying that the surge has also seen a number of prominent altcoins soar to new heights. In this regard, over the course of the past week, Ether (ETH), Stellar (XLM) and Cardano (ADA) have showcased prominent gains of 70%, 128% and 70%, respectively.

But will the financial destiny of the market’s top-10 altcoins always be linked to Bitcoin? So far, the value of ETH and Litecoin (LTC) have continued to showcase heavy correlation with BTC whenever the latter witnesses any major market movement. However, Ether may be coming into its own as an independent asset, even though it has yet to break past its 2018 ATH of $1,448.

Thor Chan, CEO of digital asset exchange AAX, opined that even though the term “alt season” is often used whenever Ether or some other altcoins start to surge, its meaning has changed over time. He pointed to the 2017 market when everything had to do with an explosion in innovation around initial coin offerings and about people “getting rich as quickly as possible.” Since then, he believes the market has evolved greatly: “Now, the growth in altcoins is more about portfolio diversification, risk management and rebalancing as traders realize their Bitcoin profits.”

It is worth recognizing that most altcoins, barring a few such as ETH, still largely fall outside the radar of institutional interest. However, with Bitcoin being promoted the way it has been, many mid- to large-scale investors might be looking at ETH and other prominent alts as potential candidates for the next wave of adoption. In this regard, Jay Hao, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange OKEx, highlighted to Cointelegraph:

“It is natural that there will be some spillover into other cryptocurrencies with Ethereum being the first in line as a well-established and long-term project in the industry. While BTC most certainly has the strongest brand recognition, Ethereum has not gone unnoticed, being used by the largest FSIs like JPMorgan and Santander.”

He further noted that Ether has very strong fundamentals and, as a result, has piqued the interest of serious institutional investors, such as TD Ameritrade and Arca Labs. Not only that, but Ethereum is the platform of choice for many cryptocurrency projects and has been behind the huge DeFi momentum that took off in earnest last year.

Hao believes that while Bitcoin has effectively been given the green light, as has Ether to a certain degree, from institutional investors, the same cannot be said for all other cryptocurrencies: “I don’t believe that we can say with confidence that the alt season will be as large or as long as the previous, as the majority of the institutional dollars are still flowing into BTC.”

Is the crypto hype real?

While the narrative of “Bitcoin being a bubble” is yet to play out, there are still those from the traditional finance sphere who continue to reiterate the statement as a mantra, hoping that their anti-crypto sentiments do come true at some point.

For example, just last month, renowned economist David Rosenberg told Bloomberg that he believes Bitcoin is in a bubble and investors don’t understand how its supply works, adding: “Everybody seems to believe that we’re going to get to that 21 million cap on the supply constraint, but there’s really nothing in the protocol to suggest that the supply of Bitcoin can’t go up once we hit that limit.”

Related: New Bitcoin price highs revive old misconceptions about BTC and crypto

As a wise man once said, “Facts don’t care about your feelings,” as is highlighted by the fact that the crypto industry is seeing unprecedented institutional demand for Bitcoin, especially with the entrance of many key players, such as MicroStrategy, Guggenheim, SkyBridge Capital, Square and PayPal into the space. Additionally, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has recently given U.S. banks the authorization to treat public blockchains as another form of settlement infrastructure and also allowed for banks to offer custody services of digital assets.

When it comes to altcoins, the world’s largest financial derivatives exchange, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange group, has finally announced its plans to launch a new ETH futures product in early 2021. As a result of this development, come February, traders will have the opportunity to speculate on Ether’s future monetary valuation using a fully regulated setup.

The offering, referred to as the CME CF Ether Reference Rate, will help expose crypto to a wide array of investors, traders and investors, allowing for better price discovery and, eventually, increased adoption within institutional circles.

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…

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  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat"…

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Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat" to the health of the US population - a sharp decline from a high of 67% in July 2020.

(SARMDY/Shutterstock)

What's more, the Pew Research Center survey conducted from Feb. 7 to Feb. 11 showed that just 10% of Americans are concerned that they will  catch the disease and require hospitalization.

"This data represents a low ebb of public concern about the virus that reached its height in the summer and fall of 2020, when as many as two-thirds of Americans viewed COVID-19 as a major threat to public health," reads the report, which was published March 7.

According to the survey, half of the participants understand the significance of researchers and healthcare providers in understanding and treating long COVID - however 27% of participants consider this issue less important, while 22% of Americans are unaware of long COVID.

What's more, while Democrats were far more worried than Republicans in the past, that gap has narrowed significantly.

"In the pandemic’s first year, Democrats were routinely about 40 points more likely than Republicans to view the coronavirus as a major threat to the health of the U.S. population. This gap has waned as overall levels of concern have fallen," reads the report.

More via the Epoch Times;

The survey found that three in ten Democrats under 50 have received an updated COVID-19 vaccine, compared with 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older.

Moreover, 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older have received the updated COVID-19 vaccine, while only 24 percent of Republicans ages 65 and older have done so.

“This 42-point partisan gap is much wider now than at other points since the start of the outbreak. For instance, in August 2021, 93 percent of older Democrats and 78 percent of older Republicans said they had received all the shots needed to be fully vaccinated (a 15-point gap),” it noted.

COVID-19 No Longer an Emergency

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently issued its updated recommendations for the virus, which no longer require people to stay home for five days after testing positive for COVID-19.

The updated guidance recommends that people who contracted a respiratory virus stay home, and they can resume normal activities when their symptoms improve overall and their fever subsides for 24 hours without medication.

“We still must use the commonsense solutions we know work to protect ourselves and others from serious illness from respiratory viruses, this includes vaccination, treatment, and staying home when we get sick,” CDC director Dr. Mandy Cohen said in a statement.

The CDC said that while the virus remains a threat, it is now less likely to cause severe illness because of widespread immunity and improved tools to prevent and treat the disease.

Importantly, states and countries that have already adjusted recommended isolation times have not seen increased hospitalizations or deaths related to COVID-19,” it stated.

The federal government suspended its free at-home COVID-19 test program on March 8, according to a website set up by the government, following a decrease in COVID-19-related hospitalizations.

According to the CDC, hospitalization rates for COVID-19 and influenza diseases remain “elevated” but are decreasing in some parts of the United States.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 22:45

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Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says “I Would Support”

Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says "I Would Support"

Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump…

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Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run - Musk Says "I Would Support"

Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump into the race to become the next Senate GOP leader, and Elon Musk was quick to support the idea. Republicans must find a successor for periodically malfunctioning Mitch McConnell, who recently announced he'll step down in November, though intending to keep his Senate seat until his term ends in January 2027, when he'd be within weeks of turning 86. 

So far, the announced field consists of two quintessential establishment types: John Cornyn of Texas and John Thune of South Dakota. While John Barrasso's name had been thrown around as one of "The Three Johns" considered top contenders, the Wyoming senator on Tuesday said he'll instead seek the number two slot as party whip. 

Paul used X to tease his potential bid for the position which -- if the GOP takes back the upper chamber in November -- could graduate from Minority Leader to Majority Leader. He started by telling his 5.1 million followers he'd had lots of people asking him about his interest in running...

...then followed up with a poll in which he predictably annihilated Cornyn and Thune, taking a 96% share as of Friday night, with the other two below 2% each. 

Elon Musk was quick to back the idea of Paul as GOP leader, while daring Cornyn and Thune to follow Paul's lead by throwing their names out for consideration by the Twitter-verse X-verse. 

Paul has been a stalwart opponent of security-state mass surveillance, foreign interventionism -- to include shoveling billions of dollars into the proxy war in Ukraine -- and out-of-control spending in general. He demonstrated the latter passion on the Senate floor this week as he ridiculed the latest kick-the-can spending package:   

In February, Paul used Senate rules to force his colleagues into a grueling Super Bowl weekend of votes, as he worked to derail a $95 billion foreign aid bill. "I think we should stay here as long as it takes,” said Paul. “If it takes a week or a month, I’ll force them to stay here to discuss why they think the border of Ukraine is more important than the US border.”

Don't expect a Majority Leader Paul to ditch the filibuster -- he's been a hardy user of the legislative delay tactic. In 2013, he spoke for 13 hours to fight the nomination of John Brennan as CIA director. In 2015, he orated for 10-and-a-half-hours to oppose extension of the Patriot Act

Rand Paul amid his 10 1/2 hour filibuster in 2015

Among the general public, Paul is probably best known as Capitol Hill's chief tormentor of Dr. Anthony Fauci, who was director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease during the Covid-19 pandemic. Paul says the evidence indicates the virus emerged from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology. He's accused Fauci and other members of the US government public health apparatus of evading questions about their funding of the Chinese lab's "gain of function" research, which takes natural viruses and morphs them into something more dangerous. Paul has pointedly said that Fauci committed perjury in congressional hearings and that he belongs in jail "without question."   

Musk is neither the only nor the first noteworthy figure to back Paul for party leader. Just hours after McConnell announced his upcoming step-down from leadership, independent 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr voiced his support: 

In a testament to the extent to which the establishment recoils at the libertarian-minded Paul, mainstream media outlets -- which have been quick to report on other developments in the majority leader race -- pretended not to notice that Paul had signaled his interest in the job. More than 24 hours after Paul's test-the-waters tweet-fest began, not a single major outlet had brought it to the attention of their audience. 

That may be his strongest endorsement yet. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 20:25

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