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The Interesting Week Ahead

The Interesting Week Ahead

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Under more normal circumstances, next week would be among the most important of the weeks of the year.  The three largest central banks in the G7 meet, namely the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan.  In addition, the first estimate of the US and EMU Q1 GDP will be released.  Other economic reports, including US auto sales and eurozone's preliminary CPI estimate, are also typically closely watched by economists and investors.

However, these are most certainly not normal circumstances. The central banks have not waited for scheduled meetings to adjust policy during the pandemic.  The Federal Reserve is at the effective zero-bound and shows little interest in adopting negative rates.  The ECB and the BOJ already have negative rates, and neither seems to be in a hurry to go deeper into negative territory.  Yet given precipitous drop in oil prices and the relative strength of the yen (it has spent a little more than a week since March 1 below its 100-day moving average found near JPY108.85 now), the risk is that Japan gets knocked back into deflation, i.e., outright contraction in CPI. 

The Fed's efforts to stabilize the capital markets have made great strides.   The VIX, for example, has been halved from its peak.  Around 40%, it is still more than twice what it was in early January.  The volatility of the Treasury market has been more than halved from its peak.  Around 70% MOVE is high but not unreasonably so.  The 200-day moving average at the end of last year was about 61%.  US dollar LIBOR has also eased.  The benchmark three-month dollar LIBOR slipped below 100 bp for the first time since March 16. This drove the spread between LIBOR and OIS narrowed to its lowest level in over a month.  After peaking late March near 138 bp, it is now near 90 bp.  Before the disruption, it did not trade north of 40 bp since early 2019. 

The ECB appears to be having a more difficult time.  First, the three-month Euribor premium over OIS rose from around 5-7 bp in most of February to 30 bp in April and is just below there now.  Euribor was around minus 40 bp in mid-February and fell to almost minus 50 bp as the markets priced in a rate cut by the ECB.  However, as it became clear the ECB was not going to cut rates, Euribor began rising.   It also reflected the reluctance to lend on an unsecured basis, and some banks might be running thin on collateral for operations with the ECB.  There are also some technical issues behind the elevation, including a low proportion of actual transactions, and nearly half of the contributors come from outside of the core countries.   Last week, three-month Euribor reached almost minus 15 bp before easing ahead of the weekend.  

The ECB has eased its collateral rules, including last week's decisions to remove (until September 2021) the investment-grade rating threshold for collateral.  Provided that the entity (corporation or sovereign) had an investment-grade rating by at least one of the main rating agencies (including DBRS) as of April 7, the ECB will accept it as collateral for loans.  The move is seen to help address the current challenge as well as mitigate the impact of potential rating downgrades on the availability of collateral. 

Although the ECB was prepared to accept as below investment-grade collateral, it was still reluctant to buy below it as part of its asset purchase programs, unlike the Federal Reserve.  The Fed previously indicated its willingness to purchase corporate bonds that lost their investment-grade rating since the announcement of its corporate bond-buying facility.  It gave itself the authority to buy high-yielding bond ETFs if the valuation was within specific parameters of net asset value.  To be sure, the ECB has made allowances and is buying Greek bonds (which are below investment grade) and kept the door open to doing so more broadly in the future, if needed.  

Second, the ECB is struggling to prevent greater divergence of interest rates.  Since it announced the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program on March 18, the premiums the periphery offers over Germany have narrowed a little, and it has been erratic at best. The transmission of the ECB monetary policy is being stymied as reflected in the steepness of the coupon curves on the periphery, and the slowness of the collective response at both the eurozone and EU levels.   

The Bank of Japan meets on April 27.  The key challenge it faces is not about the price of money, but the access to it.   The BOJ may unveil a new initiative to support bank lending.  A local press report suggested that the BOJ is considering removing the self-imposed limit on its bond purchases.  This would be more about signaling intentions than a material change.  Over the last few years, as yield curve control has supplemented the bond purchases, the BOJ has consistently undershot its JPY80 trillion target.  Consider that the Fed has announced unlimited Treasury purchases and has gradually reduced the amount from $75 bln a day to $50 bln for all of next week.

If the BOJ is to take fresh material action, observers have focused on it stepping up its purchases of corporate bonds and commercial paper.  The central bank will update its forecasts.  In January, it anticipated the economy would expand by a little less than 1% in the current fiscal year.  The IMF's new forecasts project a 5.2% contraction this calendar year after a 0.7% expansion in 2019. 

The FOMC two-day meeting concludes on April 29.  That morning, the first official estimate of Q1 GDP will be reported. The darkening of the outlook in recent weeks in a Reuters survey.  At the start of April, the median forecast was for a decline in output of 2.5% (annualized) and 20% in Q2.  However, the most recent survey found median estimates of -4.8% and -30%, respectively.

Despite the criticism levied against the Fed for encroaching the "free markets" or "buying everything" or facilitating "moral hazards," a Gallup Poll found that the confidence the Fed's Chair is the highest in 15 years, the most since Greenspan.  Those that had a "great deal" or a "fair amount" of confidence in Powell that he would do or recommend the right thing were greater the results for President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.

Still, only the least imaginative among us would repeat earlier arguments about the Fed running out of ammunition.  Keep in mind the three levers that it controls or influence:  monetary policy proper (interest rates and its Treasury and mortgage-backed security purchases), market support efforts, on behalf of the US Treasury (nine special purpose vehicles), and regulatory/supervision.  The Fed has pulled all three levers, and each can be scaled.  The Fed can expand participation in existing programs like it recently did to include corporate bonds that lost their investment-grade rating since the crisis.

The Fed may consider including non-for-profits in its Main Street lending program.  It may also extend its local government bond-buying to include more municipalities.  The Fed is not bound by the FOMC schedule as it as aptly demonstrated. 

There may be a technical tweak in the reverse repo rate.  The issue is several key benchmarks, including the replacement for LIBOR, the secured overnight financing rate, and the general collateral rates are at a single basis point and this may be too close to zero for the Fed's comfort. In lieu of that, perhaps, the most important element of the FOMC meeting is Powell's press conference.  It is possible, and maybe likely, that the US economy bottoms before the next FOMC meeting on June 10.

The ECB meets on April 30.  ECB President Lagarde warned EU leaders that the eurozone GDP could contract as much as 15% this year and cautioned against taking too little action too late.  Her base case is a 9% drop in output, while IMF's new forecast projects a 7.5% contraction.  One initiative that may be under consideration is for the ECB to offer swap lines as the Federal Reserve has done.  In the analyses of the decade-ago crisis, some were critical that the ECB did not provide such lines to east and central European countries, for example. 

A Bloomberg poll found that one in four surveyed expect the ECB to announce it will boost its bond purchases, with many looking for a 250 bln euro increase.  The median forecast is for ECB to make a move after the summer and increase the purchases by another 500 bln euros.  We find ourselves more sympathetic with the majority here as the ECB has Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program is hardly six weeks old.  Moreover, we suspect that what is is buying could be more effectively executed.  For example, during a prior period of intervention, the BOJ is believed to have varied its orders to buy dollars.  Some were of the variety of "all or none"  or "fill or kill" orders that seemed to act as a force multiplier.   Also, much of the Eurosystem buying appears to be after the fact, defensively after the spreads had already widened.  

A few hours before Lagarde's press conference at the conclusion of the ECB meeting, the first estimate of Q1 GDP will be released, as will the preliminary April CPI figures.  The median forecast is for the euro area economy to have contracted by 3.5%, though the risk is for a greater slowdown.  France, Italy, and Spain report their national figures, and none is expected to have contracted by less than 4%.    

Deflation risk will be evident.  The euro's weakness is too mild to offset the deflationary drag from the contracting economy and drop in oil prices.  Headline CPI is expected to have risen by 0.1% in April, according to the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey.  Given the base effect, the year-over-year rate would fall to 0.1% from 0.7%.  The core rate is expected to ease from 1% to 0.7%. 






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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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