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The US Dollar’s Evolving Outlook

The foreign exchange market sees an average daily turnover of around something on the magnitude of $6.6 trillion a day.

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The foreign exchange market sees an average daily turnover of around something on the magnitude of $6.6 trillion a day.  In a week, the turnover is sufficient to more than cover world trade for a year.  It is the largest of the capital markets.  Trends in the currency market can last for years.  

A little more than a year ago, we concluded that the dollar's third significant rally since the end of Bretton Woods was over and that a cyclical dollar decline was at hand.  Yet the dollar's price is only known relative to another currency, and there are more than 100, or a basket of currencies.  What exactly does it mean that the dollar's "third significant rally" was over?

Here is a chart of the dollar that is the best measure of its economic impact.  It a broad trade-weighted measure the is adjusted for inflation.  The real broad trade-weighted dollar index is the way the Federal Reserve thinks about the dollar as well.  The chart here from Bloomberg goes back to the 1970s. Nixon broke the last link between gold and the dollar on August 15, 1971.  There is an attempt to put Bretton Woods back together, but it fails.  The first big dollar rally we associate with Reagan, though in fairness, it began before he took office.  Nevertheless, the Reagan dollar rally was a function of the policy mix.  There was a tight monetary policy from the Volcker Fed as double-digit inflation is squashed with punishing interest rates despite high unemployment.  Meanwhile, Reagan pushed on the fiscal accelerator.  Taxes were cut, and defense and social spending increased.  Such a policy mix, loose fiscal and tight monetary policy, appears to be the most favorable for a currency.

The dollar enjoyed its first post-Bretton Woods rally, but it proved too much.  The marked appreciation of the greenback led to a widening trade deficit and protectionism at home.  The strength of the dollar was kindling inflation pressures in Europe and Japan.  Officials from the G5 met at the Plaza Hotel in New York and agreed to drive the dollar lower through joint intervention.  The dollar went through about a ten-year bear market.  

Starting in the spring of 1995, the dollar's second significant dollar rally began.  The Clinton dollar rally was a function of the new technology rally, the age of the PC.  Americans kept their savings at home, and foreign investors could not get enough of the new economy stocks.  Another change took place, which was also important.  Robert Rubin replaced Lloyd Bentsen at the head of the Treasury Department.  He needed to distinguish himself from his predecessor and announced a "strong dollar policy."   This shift was important even though it was disputed nearly from the start, and the policy lasted for nearly two decades through Democratic and Republican administrations.

The "strong dollar policy" was never about the exchange rate per se.  It was a pledge to investors and creditors that the US would not seek a weaker dollar to secure trade advantage or reduce its debt burden.  Until then, the US had used the dollar's exchange rate as a weapon to win concessions from Europe and/or Japan.  Rubin broke from that tradition.  It took several years, but the G7 and then the G20 embraced Rubin's innovation.  It was similar to an arms control agreement.  We could pursue beggar-thy-neighbor competitive devaluations, but let's agree to refrain.  Let the exchange rate be determined by market forces while avoiding excessive volatility.  

Meanwhile, the euro was launched on January 1, 1999, and proceeded to slump.  It was launched near $1.1760 and proceeded to rally the following day to around $1.19, but that was it.  It would not see that level again until the middle of 2003.  The euro proceeded to fall through $0.8500.  Two developments took place that served to cap the dollar.  The tech bubble popped, and the Europeans organized coordinated intervention to stop the euro from falling in October 2000, which entailed selling dollars.   

The euro bottomed in October 2000, while the real broad trade-weighted dollar index rose for a bit longer before turning down and entering another roughly ten-year bear market.   Recall in late 2007 and  2008, as the Great Financial Crisis was already unfolding, the euro reached $1.60, sterling poked above $2.10, and both the Australian and Canadian dollars were worth more than $1.  My first book, Making Sense of the Dollar (Bloomberg 2009), was published.  It was a self-conscious pushback against the day's declinists that argued the dollar's primary role in the world economy was over.  It anticipated a new large cyclical dollar rally.  

Many of the dollar's bilateral nominal exchange rates had peaked, the real broad trade-weighted measure did not turn up until H2 2011.  The recovery seemed to be fueled by the divergence of the policy response to the Great Financial Crisis and Europe's secondary sovereign crisis.   The US had taken early and aggressive action and was able to begin normalizing policy before most others.  This resulted in widening interest rate differentials, for example.   With Trump's election in 2016, the US policy mix added fuel to the dollar's cyclical advance.  Fiscal policy became more expansionary, and the Fed's monetary policy becomes less accommodative.   

However, around the middle of 2019, we began warning that the third significant dollar rally since the end of Bretton Woods was coming to an end.  Initially, our argument was three-fold.  The policy mix was becoming less supportive.  Interest rate differentials had peaked and began moving against the US, which, in the past, was the signal of the last phase of a dollar bull run,   The dollar, as Trump and others pointed out, was overvalued against majors.  
Valuation is often elusive in the foreign exchange market.  In their pure form, currencies do not have a yield stream that can be discounted.  A basic approach, purchasing power parity, is predicated on the "law of one price," which says that a basket of international goods should cost the same price when the currency conversion is made.  To the extent there is a deviation, it shows a misalignment.   

The OECD has a model of PPP.  Here, the Bloomberg chart shows where the major currencies were relative to the OECD's PPP at the end of August 2019.  We noted that the dollar was not simply cheap in PPP terms but that the readings, especially for the euro and sterling, were extreme.  The elastic that links price to value can stretch but rarely do the major currencies move more than 20%-25% beyond the OECD's PPP measure.  We concluded that the dollar was extremely stretched, especially against the euro and sterling and that it was losing its main supports (policy mix and rate differentials).  Moreover,  we understood asset managers to be overweight the dollar after its multiyear rally.  

The pandemic outbreak generated some chaotic days in the markets, and even the US Treasury market was disrupted in ways that were not seen even during the Great Financial Crisis.  The dollar was sought not only as a safe haven, but the unwinding of structured trades that used the dollar to fund the purchase of higher-yielding or more volatile assets (think emerging markets, for example) also lifted the dollar broadly.  The Federal Reserve's swap lines with other central banks were expanded, which helped stabilize the foreign exchange market.   The emergency demand for dollars subsided, the use of the swap lines diminished, and the greenback's underlying downtrend resumed. 

While we may have been early on the dollar bear call, it has become the consensus view.  When we listen to clients, participate in panel discussions, and read others' arguments, it seems the bearish outlook can be framed as a return of the twin-deficits.   A large current account and budget deficit do not always translate into a depreciating dollar, but this time it likely will. The US is not expected to offer the interest rate or growth differentials that attract the world's savings at current prices.  

That said, the new US stimulus pushes out the pending fiscal cliff and gives the world's largest economy a proverbial shot in the arm.  It may lift the dollar in the first part of the New Year after experiencing a sharp sell-off here in recent months.  Momentum, market positioning, and the skew in the options market all warn of the risk of an upside correction in the dollar, even if the precise timing is difficult to predict.  At the same time, the pandemic in Europe, lockdowns, and a seemingly less aggressive approach to the vaccine (including orders), suggesting a bleak Q1 21.  

However, the euro pullback is likely to provide an opportunity for nimble businesses and asset managers to align with the underlying trend. The euro is still cheap relative to the OECD's PPP (not the first or last word, but a useful historic metric). The twin-deficit problem will likely be aggravated by the growth differentials and additional stimulus that the Biden administration will likely seek and a Federal Reserve committed to relating the economy and not tightening as early in the labor market cycle as it has in the past.  We think the euro can rise toward $1.30 in 2021 and look for sterling to appreciate toward$1.40.  That dollar weakness may put it a little below JPY100.   The Australian dollar can see $0.8000, while the greenback falls toward CAD1.22.  

Working with Bloomberg, we launched a new currency index to monitor the dollar this year.  It is a GDP-weighted index (BWCI) of the top 12 economies, with the eurozone counting for one.  Half are what are commonly called emerging markets, and half are high-income countries.   The nominal GDP estimates by the World Bank are used, and when the adjustment is made in 2021, it is likely that the Chinese yuan moves into second place behind the dollar and ahead of the eurozone.   India will either move into fifth place ahead of the UK either in the 2021 setting or 2022.
  
This BWCI monthly chart goes back to 2005.   After peaking in 2011, it moves lower with the Obama/Trump dollar rally.  After hitting a low in 2016, the BWCI bounces as the dollar is set back, but the rally resumed.  When we began talking about the end of the third rally since the end of Bretton Woods, it looked as if the BWCI was going to hold above the 2016 low, but alas, it made a new low in March.   Since that low, the Bannockburn World Currency Index has appreciated by nearly 8.5%.   Another 3% appreciation will test the 2018 high, but there may be potential to around 107 on the index, which is almost 5.5% higher than prevailing levels. 

Janet Yellen will succeed Steven Mnuchin at the head of the US Treasury Department.  The Treasury and the Federal Reserve appeared to work together well when the pandemic first broke.  The central bank was given emergency authority, backed by funds from Congress.  However, after the election results were clear, a gap between the two opened as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin opted not to extend the emergency facilities while the Fed argued that even though they were lightly used, they still provided a backstop and signaling value.  Investors saw, for example, that the mere authority to buy so-called fallen angel bonds (those that lost their investment-grade rating due to the pandemic) had salutary effects before a red cent was spent.  The combination of Yellen's experience as Fed Chair and her pragmatism suggests scope for heightened cooperation between the central bank and Treasury Department while preserving the former's independence.   Biden will get a chance to put his mark on the Federal Reserve, via the power of appointment, in 2022. 

Yellen inherits a dollar policy that is in disrepair.  Trump repeatedly tried talking the dollar lower.  That the impact was minimal is beside the point.  If the Biden administration wants to demonstrate that the defection from the international order that the US was instrumental in building and extending was an anomaly, it cannot simply articulate a new dollar policy.  It must embrace the G7 and G20 position that it previously insisted upon and re-commit to the arms control arrangement under which markets determine exchange rates.  Recognizing that floating exchange rates often mean volatile exchange rates, excessive volatility needs to be avoided.  

Citing China as a currency manipulator in 2019 for the first time since 1994 and then reversing itself when Beijing agreed to a trade deal (Phase 1, which the Trump administration says China is fulfilling but private estimates suggest otherwise.  See here and here.) undermined the credibility of the report.  In the waning days of 2020 and his tenure, Mnuchin cited Switzerland and Vietnam as currency manipulators and added Taiwan, India, and Thailand to its watch-list.  

The policy has been neutered.  Within minutes of the Treasury's announcement, Switzerland denied it manipulated the franc for trade advantage and reaffirmed its commitment to intervene as necessary in the foreign exchange market, for example.  Working with Congress, Yellen needs to recraft the US approach.  The current account deficit remains wide, and the growing US watch-list (which ironically now includes two of the 19 countries that share the euro and ECB) illustrates the problem with mechanistically applying quantitative measures while ignoring the context and strategic interests.  The focus on bilateral trade relations is also misguided. 

Exchange rates are important. They can and have been weaponized. It contributes to the destabilizing global imbalance. Unilateral approaches are bound to fail.  An enhanced role for the IMF in surveillance of direct and indirect activity in the foreign exchange market, increased transparency of exchange rate management, and offering a benchmark of valuation, would be helpful.   It would strengthen the center and global governance.   A stranger multilateral effort needs a stick too besides a carrot, and this discussion should be launched by the new US Treasury Secretary committed to the arms control agreement.  

China closely manages its exchange rate.  Too much and too opaque for most observers. Yet, from mid-May through mid-December, Chinese officials managed an appreciating yuan. Year-to-date, the yuan is among the strongest of emerging market currencies, gaining about 6.4% against the greenback.  The yuan appreciated against all but a handful of major currencies as well.  The appreciation of the yuan is a prima facia case that Beijing sees it in its interest.  The currency is plenty competitive for trade purposes, as the record trade surplus illustrates.  However, China's integration into the global capital markets requires that the yuan is responsive to macroeconomic fundamentals.  Otherwise, international asset managers who have reportedly bought more than $215 bln of Chinese bonds and stocks this year will think twice. 

The yuan's internationalization requires a country with a large trade surplus, attractive rate differentials, the strongest economy, and capital inflows to have an appreciating currency.  Full stop.  These dynamics suggest that further yuan appreciation is likely in 2021.  The yuan's appreciation in 2020 largely offsets its depreciation in 2018 and 2019.  We suspect there is scope and tolerance for another 5% appreciation of the yuan in 2021, which would take the dollar toward CNY6.20.  


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International

United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."

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Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.

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United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

More Travel:

"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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International

Walmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program

The retail superstore is adding a new feature to its Walmart+ plan — and customers will be happy.

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It's just been a few days since Target  (TGT)  launched its new Target Circle 360 paid membership plan. 

The plan offers free and fast shipping on many products to customers, initially for $49 a year and then $99 after the initial promotional signup period. It promises to be a success, since many Target customers are loyal to the brand and will go out of their way to shop at one instead of at its two larger peers, Walmart and Amazon.

Related: Walmart makes a major price cut that will delight customers

And stop us if this sounds familiar: Target will rely on its more than 2,000 stores to act as fulfillment hubs. 

This model is a proven winner; Walmart also uses its more than 4,600 stores as fulfillment and shipping locations to get orders to customers as soon as possible.

Sometimes, this means shipping goods from the nearest warehouse. But if a desired product is in-store and closer to a customer, it reduces miles on the road and delivery time. It's a kind of logistical magic that makes any efficiency lover's (or retail nerd's) heart go pitter patter. 

Walmart rolls out answer to Target's new membership tier

Walmart has certainly had more time than Target to develop and work out the kinks in Walmart+. It first launched the paid membership in 2020 during the height of the pandemic, when many shoppers sheltered at home but still required many staples they might ordinarily pick up at a Walmart, like cleaning supplies, personal-care products, pantry goods and, of course, toilet paper. 

It also undercut Amazon  (AMZN)  Prime, which costs customers $139 a year for free and fast shipping (plus several other benefits including access to its streaming service, Amazon Prime Video). 

Walmart+ costs $98 a year, which also gets you free and speedy delivery, plus access to a Paramount+ streaming subscription, fuel savings, and more. 

An employee at a Merida, Mexico, Walmart. (Photo by Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Jeff Greenberg/Getty Images

If that's not enough to tempt you, however, Walmart+ just added a new benefit to its membership program, ostensibly to compete directly with something Target now has: ultrafast delivery. 

Target Circle 360 particularly attracts customers with free same-day delivery for select orders over $35 and as little as one-hour delivery on select items. Target executes this through its Shipt subsidiary.

We've seen this lightning-fast delivery speed only in snippets from Amazon, the king of delivery efficiency. Who better to take on Target, though, than Walmart, which is using a similar store-as-fulfillment-center model? 

"Walmart is stepping up to save our customers even more time with our latest delivery offering: Express On-Demand Early Morning Delivery," Walmart said in a statement, just a day after Target Circle 360 launched. "Starting at 6 a.m., earlier than ever before, customers can enjoy the convenience of On-Demand delivery."

Walmart  (WMT)  clearly sees consumers' desire for near-instant delivery, which obviously saves time and trips to the store. Rather than waiting a day for your order to show up, it might be on your doorstep when you wake up. 

Consumers also tend to spend more money when they shop online, and they remain stickier as paying annual members. So, to a growing number of retail giants, almost instant gratification like this seems like something worth striving for.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Government

President Biden Delivers The “Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President”

President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through…

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President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through the State of The Union, President Biden can go back to his crypt now.

Whatever 'they' gave Biden, every American man, woman, and the other should be allowed to take it - though it seems the cocktail brings out 'dark Brandon'?

Tl;dw: Biden's Speech tonight ...

  • Fund Ukraine.

  • Trump is threat to democracy and America itself.

  • Abortion is good.

  • American Economy is stronger than ever.

  • Inflation wasn't Biden's fault.

  • Illegals are Americans too.

  • Republicans are responsible for the border crisis.

  • Trump is bad.

  • Biden stands with trans-children.

  • J6 was the worst insurrection since the Civil War.

(h/t @TCDMS99)

Tucker Carlson's response sums it all up perfectly:

"that was possibly the darkest, most un-American speech given by an American president. It wasn't a speech, it was a rant..."

Carlson continued: "The true measure of a nation's greatness lies within its capacity to control borders, yet Bid refuses to do it."

"In a fair election, Joe Biden cannot win"

And concluded:

“There was not a meaningful word for the entire duration about the things that actually matter to people who live here.”

Victor Davis Hanson added some excellent color, but this was probably the best line on Biden:

"he doesn't care... he lives in an alternative reality."

*  *  *

Watch SOTU Live here...

*   *   *

Mises' Connor O'Keeffe, warns: "Be on the Lookout for These Lies in Biden's State of the Union Address." 

On Thursday evening, President Joe Biden is set to give his third State of the Union address. The political press has been buzzing with speculation over what the president will say. That speculation, however, is focused more on how Biden will perform, and which issues he will prioritize. Much of the speech is expected to be familiar.

The story Biden will tell about what he has done as president and where the country finds itself as a result will be the same dishonest story he's been telling since at least the summer.

He'll cite government statistics to say the economy is growing, unemployment is low, and inflation is down.

Something that has been frustrating Biden, his team, and his allies in the media is that the American people do not feel as economically well off as the official data says they are. Despite what the White House and establishment-friendly journalists say, the problem lies with the data, not the American people's ability to perceive their own well-being.

As I wrote back in January, the reason for the discrepancy is the lack of distinction made between private economic activity and government spending in the most frequently cited economic indicators. There is an important difference between the two:

  • Government, unlike any other entity in the economy, can simply take money and resources from others to spend on things and hire people. Whether or not the spending brings people value is irrelevant

  • It's the private sector that's responsible for producing goods and services that actually meet people's needs and wants. So, the private components of the economy have the most significant effect on people's economic well-being.

Recently, government spending and hiring has accounted for a larger than normal share of both economic activity and employment. This means the government is propping up these traditional measures, making the economy appear better than it actually is. Also, many of the jobs Biden and his allies take credit for creating will quickly go away once it becomes clear that consumers don't actually want whatever the government encouraged these companies to produce.

On top of all that, the administration is dealing with the consequences of their chosen inflation rhetoric.

Since its peak in the summer of 2022, the president's team has talked about inflation "coming back down," which can easily give the impression that it's prices that will eventually come back down.

But that's not what that phrase means. It would be more honest to say that price increases are slowing down.

Americans are finally waking up to the fact that the cost of living will not return to prepandemic levels, and they're not happy about it.

The president has made some clumsy attempts at damage control, such as a Super Bowl Sunday video attacking food companies for "shrinkflation"—selling smaller portions at the same price instead of simply raising prices.

In his speech Thursday, Biden is expected to play up his desire to crack down on the "corporate greed" he's blaming for high prices.

In the name of "bringing down costs for Americans," the administration wants to implement targeted price ceilings - something anyone who has taken even a single economics class could tell you does more harm than good. Biden would never place the blame for the dramatic price increases we've experienced during his term where it actually belongs—on all the government spending that he and President Donald Trump oversaw during the pandemic, funded by the creation of $6 trillion out of thin air - because that kind of spending is precisely what he hopes to kick back up in a second term.

If reelected, the president wants to "revive" parts of his so-called Build Back Better agenda, which he tried and failed to pass in his first year. That would bring a significant expansion of domestic spending. And Biden remains committed to the idea that Americans must be forced to continue funding the war in Ukraine. That's another topic Biden is expected to highlight in the State of the Union, likely accompanied by the lie that Ukraine spending is good for the American economy. It isn't.

It's not possible to predict all the ways President Biden will exaggerate, mislead, and outright lie in his speech on Thursday. But we can be sure of two things. The "state of the Union" is not as strong as Biden will say it is. And his policy ambitions risk making it much worse.

*  *  *

The American people will be tuning in on their smartphones, laptops, and televisions on Thursday evening to see if 'sloppy joe' 81-year-old President Joe Biden can coherently put together more than two sentences (even with a teleprompter) as he gives his third State of the Union in front of a divided Congress. 

President Biden will speak on various topics to convince voters why he shouldn't be sent to a retirement home.

According to CNN sources, here are some of the topics Biden will discuss tonight:

  • Economic issues: Biden and his team have been drafting a speech heavy on economic populism, aides said, with calls for higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy – an attempt to draw a sharp contrast with Republicans and their likely presidential nominee, Donald Trump.

  • Health care expenses: Biden will also push for lowering health care costs and discuss his efforts to go after drug manufacturers to lower the cost of prescription medications — all issues his advisers believe can help buoy what have been sagging economic approval ratings.

  • Israel's war with Hamas: Also looming large over Biden's primetime address is the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, which has consumed much of the president's time and attention over the past few months. The president's top national security advisers have been working around the clock to try to finalize a ceasefire-hostages release deal by Ramadan, the Muslim holy month that begins next week.

  • An argument for reelection: Aides view Thursday's speech as a critical opportunity for the president to tout his accomplishments in office and lay out his plans for another four years in the nation's top job. Even though viewership has declined over the years, the yearly speech reliably draws tens of millions of households.

Sources provided more color on Biden's SOTU address: 

The speech is expected to be heavy on economic populism. The president will talk about raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. He'll highlight efforts to cut costs for the American people, including pushing Congress to help make prescription drugs more affordable.

Biden will talk about the need to preserve democracy and freedom, a cornerstone of his re-election bid. That includes protecting and bolstering reproductive rights, an issue Democrats believe will energize voters in November. Biden is also expected to promote his unity agenda, a key feature of each of his addresses to Congress while in office.

Biden is also expected to give remarks on border security while the invasion of illegals has become one of the most heated topics among American voters. A majority of voters are frustrated with radical progressives in the White House facilitating the illegal migrant invasion. 

It is probable that the president will attribute the failure of the Senate border bill to the Republicans, a claim many voters view as unfounded. This is because the White House has the option to issue an executive order to restore border security, yet opts not to do so

Maybe this is why? 

While Biden addresses the nation, the Biden administration will be armed with a social media team to pump propaganda to at least 100 million Americans. 

"The White House hosted about 70 creators, digital publishers, and influencers across three separate events" on Wednesday and Thursday, a White House official told CNN. 

Not a very capable social media team... 

The administration's move to ramp up social media operations comes as users on X are mostly free from government censorship with Elon Musk at the helm. This infuriates Democrats, who can no longer censor their political enemies on X. 

Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers tell Axios that the president's SOTU performance will be critical as he tries to dispel voter concerns about his elderly age. The address reached as many as 27 million people in 2023. 

"We are all nervous," said one House Democrat, citing concerns about the president's "ability to speak without blowing things."

The SOTU address comes as Biden's polling data is in the dumps

BetOnline has created several money-making opportunities for gamblers tonight, such as betting on what word Biden mentions the most. 

As well as...

We will update you when Tucker Carlson's live feed of SOTU is published. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 07:44

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