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The Dollar Reverses Lower: Is this the Real Thing?

The dollar’s bounce extended further than we expected, helped by an aggressively hawkish view of the Fed, which has seen the market price in more than one hike before the end of next year.  The dollar’s rally into early July left the technical indicators.

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The dollar's bounce extended further than we expected, helped by an aggressively hawkish view of the Fed, which has seen the market price in more than one hike before the end of next year.  The dollar's rally into early July left the technical indicators stretched, and we note that near-term trend reversals recently have occurred around the end of the month or US jobs report.  

Despite the first employment report that beat expectations in three months, US interest rates softened.   In fact, the implied yield of the December 2022 Eurodollar futures contract fell four basis points.  The contract traced out what appears to be a key reversal by making new lows before rallying and closing above the previous high (in price).  The two-year note yield, which doubled in June, slipped lower for the fifth session in the past six.  The 10-year yield fell every day last week for a cumulative decline of 10 to approach 1.40%, the lower end of where it has traded over the past four months.  

The new week begins off slowly with the US holiday on Monday.  Given that the individual forecasts of Federal Reserve officials were not discussed at last month's FOMC meeting, and Chair Powell played them down, it ought not to be surprising if the minutes were not as hawkish as the dots. Still, while some "buy the rumor sell the fact" type of trading of the dollar was seen after the employment data, the market will want to see follow-through before becoming convinced that the month-long dollar rally is over.   

Dollar Index:  The Dollar Index rose to a new high since early April ahead of the jobs report, reaching almost 92.75.  It sold off and closed near its lows, around 91.20.  A potential key reversal was traced out.   A break of 92.00 favors a near-term top being in place, and a move below 91.50 would be convincing.  The momentum indicators are over-extended but are still pointing higher.  As scar tissue shows, even with technical indicators seeming near extremes, prices can continue to rise, but the reversal pattern and weak close is the ideal set-up to mark the end of the month-long rally.

Euro:  The common currency bounced off the push below $1.1810 after the employment data but did not take out the previous session's high (~$1.1885).  It snapped a four-day slide.  A move above $1.19 would help stabilize the tone. The late June high near $1.1975 needs to be overcome to boost confidence that a meaningful low is in place. The momentum indicators are oversold territory, but if $1.1800 is given, there is little on the charts before $1.1700, which corresponds to the March low and the (38.2%) retracement of the rally since the pandemic low in March 2020 (~$1.0635).  

Japanese Yen:  The US dollar posted a bullish outside up day in the middle of last week, trading on both sides of the previous session's range and closing above its high to move back above JPY111.00. However, ahead of the weekend, it posted a bearish outside down day.  It made a marginal new high for the year, a tad above JPY111.65, where the upper Bollinger Band was found.  The high from March 2020 was slightly higher at JPY111.70. The high from last year was set in February by JPY112.25.  The MACD does not appear stretched, but the Slow Stochastic is more so.  Both look poised to turn lower.  The yen is often a range-trading currency, and the lower end of the range may be represented by the trendline off the Q2 lows, which is near JPY110.00 now.  

British Pound:  Sterling fell to its lowest level since mid-April (~$1.3735) before the US jobs data.  It recovered to almost $1.3850 to record a key upside reversal.  It has fallen in four of the past five weeks, and as a consequence, the momentum indicators are stretched.  The MACD is poised to turn higher next week.  Next week, follow-through cable buying could turn the Slow Stochastic, which has not confirmed the drop to the lowest level since mid-April.  The $1.3870-$1.3900 offers the next hurdle.  For its part, the euro has been struggling to sustain a foothold above GBP0.8500 and now looks set to pull back and return to the lower end of its range, closer to GBP0.8500.

Canadian Dollar:  The Canadian dollar was the most impressive of the majors at the end of last week.  After making a marginal new high near CAD1.2450, before the US jobs report, the greenback reversed lower, taking out the previous three sessions' lows to record key reversal.  Indeed, it surpassed the (61.8%) retracement objective of the bounce since the June 23 low near CAD1.2250.  The nearly 1% US dollar decline (to about CAD1.2310) ahead of the weekend was the largest in a year.  Initial support will likely be found in the CAD1.2300.  A break of it could signal a move back toward CAD1.2200.  The MACD has curling over, but the Slow Stochastic is, well, slower.  

Australian Dollar:  The Aussie recovered smartly after falling to a new low for the year (~0.7445) ahead of the weekend and rallied smartly through the high of the previous two sessions to rise to almost $0.7535.  It, too, posted a key upside reversal.    It also snapped a four-day drop, which followed a five-day rally the previous week.  The MACD is headed lower though it is already at the lowest level since April 2020.  The Slow Stochastic is headed lower, but follow-through gains next week could see it turn higher, which would leave a bullish divergence in its wake, has not confirmed the new low in price.  The $0.7550-$0.7575 band offers nearby resistance and houses the 200-day moving average.  However, it may require a move above $0.7600 to boost confidence that a durable low is in place.  

Mexican Peso:  The dollar peaked against the peso the day before the US employment report around MXN20.08, nearly reaching the (38.2%) retracement of the unexpected Banxico rate hike-induced slide (MXN20.1040).   The pre-weekend sell-off saw it briefly trade below MXN19.75 to record a new low for the week.   The momentum indicators are not particularly helpful now, but the dollar is likely to remain under pressure.  Initial support is likely around MXN19.70 and then the five-month low set on June 9 by MXN19.60.  The market has 50 bp of tightening priced into Q3.  

Chinese Yuan:  The yuan has been recently moving in line with emerging market currencies against the dollar.  Consider last week, the yuan fell by about 0.25% and declined by around 1.3% in the month of June.  The JP Morgan Emerging Markets Currency Index lost 0.5% last week and 1.2% in June.  Still, the dollar rose for the fifth consecutive week against the yuan.  Yet, last week's high near CNY6.4850 was below the previous week's high (~CNY6.4910)), and the greenback's pullback after the employment data suggests a stronger yuan to start the new week.  Initially, the dollar could ease toward CNY6.45 and maybe CNY6.43 in the coming days.  


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Pharma industry reputation remains steady at a ‘new normal’ after Covid, Harris Poll finds

The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45%…

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The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45% of US respondents in 2023, according to the latest Harris Poll data. That’s exactly the same as the previous year.

Pharma’s highest point was in February 2021 — as Covid vaccines began to roll out — with a 62% positive US perception, and helping the industry land at an average 55% positive sentiment at the end of the year in Harris’ 2021 annual assessment of industries. The pharma industry’s reputation hit its most recent low at 32% in 2019, but it had hovered around 30% for more than a decade prior.

Rob Jekielek

“Pharma has sustained a lot of the gains, now basically one and half times higher than pre-Covid,” said Harris Poll managing director Rob Jekielek. “There is a question mark around how sustained it will be, but right now it feels like a new normal.”

The Harris survey spans 11 global markets and covers 13 industries. Pharma perception is even better abroad, with an average 58% of respondents notching favorable sentiments in 2023, just a slight slip from 60% in each of the two previous years.

Pharma’s solid global reputation puts it in the middle of the pack among international industries, ranking higher than government at 37% positive, insurance at 48%, financial services at 51% and health insurance at 52%. Pharma ranks just behind automotive (62%), manufacturing (63%) and consumer products (63%), although it lags behind leading industries like tech at 75% positive in the first spot, followed by grocery at 67%.

The bright spotlight on the pharma industry during Covid vaccine and drug development boosted its reputation, but Jekielek said there’s maybe an argument to be made that pharma is continuing to develop innovative drugs outside that spotlight.

“When you look at pharma reputation during Covid, you have clear sense of a very dynamic industry working very quickly and getting therapies and products to market. If you’re looking at things happening now, you could argue that pharma still probably doesn’t get enough credit for its advances, for example, in oncology treatments,” he said.

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Spread & Containment

I created a ‘cosy game’ – and learned how they can change players’ lives

Cosy, personal games, as I discovered, can change the lives of the people who make them and those who play them.

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Cosy games exploded in popularity during the pandemic. Takoyaki Tech/Shutterstock

The COVID pandemic transformed our lives in ways many of us are still experiencing, four years later. One of these changes was the significant uptake in gaming as a hobby, chief among them being “cosy games” like Animal Crossing: New Horizons (2020).

Players sought comfort in these wholesome virtual worlds, many of which allowed them to socialise from the safety of their homes. Cosy games, with their comforting atmospheres, absence of winning or losing, simple gameplay, and often heartwarming storylines provided a perfect entry point for a new hobby. They also offered predictability and certainty at a time when there wasn’t much to go around.

Cosy games are often made by small, independent developers. “Indie games” have long been evangelised as the purest form of game development – something anyone can do, given enough perseverance. This means they can provide an entry point for creators who hadn’t made games before, but were nevertheless interested in it, enabling a new array of diverse voices and stories to be heard.

In May 2020, near the start of the pandemic, the small poetry game A Solitary Spacecraft, which was about its developer’s experience of their first few months in lockdown, was lauded as particularly poignant. Such games showcase a potential angle for effective cosy game development: a personal one.

Personal themes are often explored through cosy games. For instance, Chicory and Venba (both released in 2023) tackle difficult topics like depression and immigration, despite their gorgeous aesthetics. This showcases the diversity of experiences on display within the medium.

However, as the world emerges from the pandemic’s shadow, the games industry is facing significant challenges. Economic downturns and acquisitions have caused large layoffs across the sector.

Historically, restructurings like these, or discontent with working conditions, have led talented laid-off developers to create their own companies and explore indie development. In the wake of the pandemic and the cosy game boom, these developers may have more personal stories to tell.

Making my own cosy game

I developed my own cosy and personal game during the pandemic and quickly discovered that creating these games in a post-lockdown landscape is no mean feat.

What We Take With Us (2023) merges reality and gameplay across various digital formats: a website, a Discord server that housed an online alternate reality game and a physical escape room. I created the game during the pandemic as a way to reflect on my journey through it, told through the videos of game character Ana Kirlitz.

The trailer for my game, What We Take With Us.

Players would follow in Ana’s footsteps by completing a series of ten tasks in their real-world space, all centred on improving wellbeing – something I and many others desperately needed during the pandemic.

But creating What We Take With Us was far from straightforward. There were pandemic hurdles like creating a physical space for an escape room amid social distancing guidelines. And, of course, the emotional difficulties of wrestling with my pandemic journey through the game’s narrative.

The release fared poorly, and the game only garnered a small player base – a problem emblematic of the modern games industry.

These struggles were starkly contrasted by the feedback I received from players who played the game, however.

This is a crucial lesson for indie developers: the creator’s journey and the player’s experience are often worlds apart. Cosy, personal games, as I discovered, can change the lives of those who play them, no matter how few they reach. They can fundamentally change the way we think about games, allow us to reconnect with old friends, or even inspire us to change careers – all real player stories.

Lessons in cosy game development

I learned so much about how cosy game development can be made more sustainable for creators navigating the precarious post-lockdown landscape. This is my advice for other creators.

First, collaboration is key. Even though many cosy or personal games (like Stardew Valley) are made by solo creators, having a team can help share the often emotional load. Making games can be taxing, so practising self-care and establishing team-wide support protocols is crucial. Share your successes and failures with other developers and players. Fostering a supportive community is key to success in the indie game landscape.

Second, remember that your game, however personal, is a product – not a reflection of you or your team. Making this distinction will help you manage expectations and cope with feedback.

Third, while deeply considering your audience may seem antithetical to personal projects, your game will ultimately be played by others. Understanding them will help you make better games.

The pandemic reignited the interest in cosy games, but subsequent industry-wide troubles may change games, and the way we make them, forever. Understanding how we make game creation more sustainable in a post-lockdown, post-layoff world is critical for developers and players alike.

For developers, it’s a reminder that their stories, no matter how harrowing, can still meaningfully connect with people. For players, it’s an invitation to embrace the potential for games to tell such stories, fostering empathy and understanding in a world that greatly needs it.


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Adam Jerrett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Government

The SNF Institute for Global Infectious Disease Research announces new advisory board

From identifying the influenza virus that caused the pandemic of 1918 to developing vaccines against pneumococcal pneumonia and bacterial meningitis in…

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From identifying the influenza virus that caused the pandemic of 1918 to developing vaccines against pneumococcal pneumonia and bacterial meningitis in the 1970s, combating infectious disease has a rich history at Rockefeller. That tradition continues as the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Institute for Global Infectious Disease Research at Rockefeller University (SNFiRU) caps a successful first year with the establishment of a new advisory board.

Credit: Lori Chertoff/The Rockefeller University

From identifying the influenza virus that caused the pandemic of 1918 to developing vaccines against pneumococcal pneumonia and bacterial meningitis in the 1970s, combating infectious disease has a rich history at Rockefeller. That tradition continues as the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Institute for Global Infectious Disease Research at Rockefeller University (SNFiRU) caps a successful first year with the establishment of a new advisory board.

This international advisory board was created in part to give guidance on how to best use SNFiRU’s resources, as well as bring forward innovative ideas concerning new avenues of research, public education, community engagement, and partnership projects.

SNFiRU was established to strengthen readiness for and response to future health crises, building on the scientific advances and international collaborations forged in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Launched with a $75 million grant from the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (SNF) as part of its Global Health Initiative (GHI), the institute provides a framework for international scientific collaboration to foster research innovations and turn them into practical health benefits.

SNFiRU’s mission is to better understand the agents that cause infectious disease and to lower barriers to treatment and prevention globally. To speed this work, the institute launched numerous initiatives in its inaugural year. For instance, SNFiRU awarded 31 research projects in 29 different Rockefeller laboratories for over $5 million to help get collaborative new research efforts off the ground. SNFiRU also supports the Rockefeller University Hospital, where clinical studies are conducted, and brought on board its first physician-scientist through Rockefeller’s Clinical Scholars program. “One of the surprises was the scope of interest from Rockefeller scientists in using their talents to tackle important infectious disease problems,” says Charles M. Rice, Maurice R. and Corinne P. Greenberg Professor in Virology at Rockefeller and director of SNFiRU. “The research topics range from the biology of infectious agents to the dynamics of the immune response to pathogens, and also include a number of infectious disease-adjacent studies.”

In the past 12 months, SNFiRU often brought together scientists studying different aspects of infectious disease as a way to spur new collaborations. In addition to hosting its first annual day-long symposium, SNFiRU initiated a Young Scientist Forum for students and post-doctoral fellows to meet regularly, facilitating cross-laboratory thinking. A bimonthly seminar series has also been established on campus.

Another aim of SNFiRU is to develop relationships with community-based organizations, as well as design and participate in community-engaged research, with a focus on low-income and minority communities. To that end, SNFiRU is helping develop a research project on Chagas disease, a tropical parasitic infection prevalent in Latin America that can cause congestive heart failure and gastrointestinal complications if left untreated. The project will bring together clinicians practicing at health centers in New York, Florida, Texas, and California and basic scientists from multiple institutions to help the communities that are most impacted.

“The SNFiRU international advisory board convenes globally recognized leaders with distinguished biomedical expertise, unrivalled experience in pandemic preparedness and response, and a shared commitment to translating scientific advancements into equitably distributed benefits in real-world settings,” says SNF Co-President Andreas Dracopoulos. “The advisory board will advance the institute’s indispensable mission, which SNF is proud to support as a key part of our Global Health Initiative, and we look forward to seeing breakthroughs in the lab drive better outcomes in lives around the globe.”

The new advisory board will hold its first meeting on April 11th, 2024, following the second annual SNF Institute for Global Infectious Disease Research Symposium at Rockefeller.

Its members are: Rafi Ahmed of Emory University School of Medicine, Cori Bargmann of The Rockefeller University, Yasmin Belkaid of the Pasteur Institute, Anthony S. Fauci, the former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Peter Hotez of Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, Esper Kallas of of the Butantan Institute, Sharon Lewin of the University of Melbourne Doherty Institue, Carl Nathan of Weill Cornell Medicine, Rino Rappuoli of Fondazione Biotecnopolo di Siena and University of Siena, and Herbert “Skip” Virgin of Washington University School of Medicine and UT Southwestern Medical Center.


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